March 23, 2007 at 2:02 pm #52736
When main stream media shows what we have known for a long time – that real estate prices are falling – then there is no turning back.
The following TV programm was aired a few days ago in TV3 and was seen by over 1 million people.
The party has just begun
Mainstream spanish newspapers like El Pais, El Mundo and La Vanguardia have commenced publishing heavy price falls. Some examples:
And one of the fastest growing internet forums in Spain: http://www.burbuja.info
March 23, 2007 at 5:10 pm #70225
I have an apartment in Frigiliana and i think the town hall just approved another 3,000 houses, doubling the current population.
Hopefully it will be delayed and some of those charming cranes and bulldozers will just disappear! Somehow I bet it doesn’t happen….
March 23, 2007 at 7:27 pm #70230
Think you reading to many newspapers and mags before such a rash statement.
Same source that only a few weeks back when the stock market took a turn for the worse they said that it could go into freefall,only for it to bounce back this week.
Also the same Bloomberg mag that almost every month changes its views on predictions for the coming year on the stock market on variuos areas of the world .
If you look through different reviews on overseas.U.K property/stock market etc they mostly give different views some within the same edition
One things for sure is that only bad news sells.?
Think it may be just as well to wait and see as it aint official till it happens no matter what anyone predicts as they are invariably wrong.
Correction ? Maybe for those with inflated expectations.
Correction? May be then we will have a more acurate figure of what property prices are in Spain.
Correction ? What every market needs for a stable medium to long term investment,which is what property is for.
Correction ? Slow down building,thats what the market needs to take up the slack.
Even if the market is talked down to far by to many it will as sure as history shows ,bounce back.
March 23, 2007 at 8:20 pm #70233
When the main stream media dares to bite the hand that feeds it, I think it is a telling sign of a change in sentiment in the housing market.
Too often “news” on the property market is nothing more than sales propoganda on behalf of the housing industry. It’s refreshing to hear the other side to the argument.
I’ll take a wild guess glassman that you are an estate agent (forgive me for not trawling through thread searches to confirm this), and it’s fair enough that you want to fight your own corner, but you can’t have it both ways and say “bad news sells” -that saying is out of context here.
I’m tired of the word “correction” -for me the market in the area where I live, Malaga has “corrected” already.
I would estimate that it has come off by 20% in nominal terms, and then you have to factor that inflation has been running at between roughly 5 & 10% pre annum. Ballpark figures would suggest that the market is down 30% already in real terms. If it comes off any more, as these articles suggest, then that will be one hell of a correction.
“Bubbles” and “crashes” may be dirty words for developers and agents, but bubbles do occur, and so do crashes. I’m not going to say that a crash is going to occur, but I think that it is not intelligent to rule out the possibility of a crash as one highly possible scenario.
& as for the stock market, it is very much in limbo at the moment. While it is not at lows for the year, you imply that it has recovered it’s losses -not by a long measure -again, it may indeed do that, or the freefall could return.
March 23, 2007 at 8:57 pm #70234
NOOOOOO not and estate agent/developer or anything like that.
Just someone who has been around the blocks a few times and followed the bad news like many do and then made knee jerk reactions
Trouble is everytime have have done that I have come out loosing.
Now I just try to ride the storms and choose to balance these reviews in all aspects of these reports and not panic and have since been O.K
You say that prices have dropped?
Suggest your falls as mention are from those that were asking inflated prices in the first place ,much like the tech bubble.
Those that havent take a more realistic view that prices may be about the same as they were say 3 years ago will have their bubble burst.
For prices to return to that level is hardly a crash and if its right that property sales were only down 7% last year I then again choose to take a medium to long term view (dont have to be an estate agent take this view)
The problem yet again on this forum is that if you attempts to put these type of views,you are always supposed to be someone your not.
Put it this way I attended a financial seminar around 4 years ago when the stock market crashed and the advice from these so called experts including Bloomberg was to return to cash as it could fall futher.
If I had taken that advice I would have missed the rebound to even higher levels with at least some form on stabilityin the markets
March 23, 2007 at 9:00 pm #70235
I just find that words like “crahese” and terms like “bounce back” may be too harsh. It is rare that any market, property or other “bounces” back, it is normally a gradual improvement. As with “crashes”, the market hasn’t gone overnight, there has been a steady decline over the last 16-24 months.
Also, you will always get those who do not like to admit to making a bad decision, so whatever funders, analysts say, they will always put forward an argument rather than admit they made a bad decision or have lost money.
March 23, 2007 at 9:08 pm #70237
Agree 100% with what you say.
I try not to use bounce back and would only use it as a reponce to a statement like crash or bubble burst which as yet has not happened.
Expectations of what some see as a gain or indeed a loss brings about rash statements at times.
Hands UP ? we all make calls some good and some bad and you have to live with it.
Hopefully you make more good than bad.
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