Spanish estate agents are starting 2026 in a more cautious mood, with confidence slipping for the third quarter in a row as shortages of stock, record prices, and an uncertain outlook weigh on expectations.
According to the latest Property Market Sentiment Survey (ESI) published by property portal idealista, agencies expect a slowdown both in their ability to capture new properties and in the number of transactions they will complete in the first months of the year. After a buoyant 2025 that pushed prices to historic highs, the sector now appears to be catching its breath.
Confidence falls again, especially in sales
The headline finding is a continued decline in confidence. The sales confidence index fell by 6.9 points in the first quarter of 2026 to 64.6 points, the sharpest quarterly drop since early 2023 and its lowest level in two years. This marks the third consecutive quarterly decline, representing a correction of around 10 points from the peak reached in mid-2025.
The rental confidence index also slipped, though less dramatically, falling by 3 points to 56.4. That is its weakest reading since the third quarter of 2023 and brings confidence back to levels last seen at the start of 2024, after a brief improvement during last year.
Slower expectations for sales activity
Agencies are becoming more restrained in their outlook for sales activity. While 47% still expect to take on more homes for sale in the coming months, that figure is down two points on the previous quarter. At the same time, the share of agencies expecting to receive less stock has risen to 21%, up five points.
A similar pattern emerges when it comes to closing deals. Just under half of agencies (47%) expect to sell more homes, six points fewer than last quarter. Meanwhile, 21% anticipate fewer transactions, also six points higher than before. In short, optimism has not vanished, but it has clearly softened.
Price expectations are shifting too. Almost half of respondents (49%) believe prices will remain broadly stable in their areas this quarter, up five points. Those expecting further price rises have fallen sharply to 40%, down 11 points, while a small but growing minority (8%) foresee price declines.
Rental market remains under strain
The rental market continues to look particularly fragile. A striking 31% of agencies say they no longer take on rental properties at all, while a further 26% report that their business does not operate in rentals. Among those that do, pessimism dominates: more agencies expect to capture fewer rental properties than more, and expectations for closing new rental contracts are similarly subdued.
Rental price expectations are also moderating. The proportion of agencies expecting rents to keep rising has fallen from 45% to 35%, while nearly half now expect rents to remain stable. Only 5% anticipate falling rents, underlining how sticky high rental prices remain despite worsening market conditions.
A market losing momentum, not collapsing
Overall, the ESI suggests a market that is cooling rather than cracking. Confidence is clearly ebbing, especially on the sales side, but most agencies still expect stable prices and steady, if slower, activity. After the exuberance of recent years, Spanish property professionals appear to be entering 2026 with fewer certainties and a much more measured outlook.
