Mark Stücklin
There’s a line of argument that trade tensions between the US and EU, fuelled by Trump’s tariffs, could spill over into Spain’s housing market – particularly in Catalonia, where Americans make up an important slice of demand, especially at the higher end of the budget scale.
In theory, tariffs could affect US demand for Spanish property in several indirect ways. A prolonged trade dispute might weaken the dollar against the euro, making homes in Catalonia more expensive for Americans. Rising inflation in the US could also squeeze household budgets, reducing the appetite for big-ticket purchases abroad. On the social front, if trade tensions sour perceptions of the US in Europe, some American buyers might worry about being viewed less favourably as investors, though this risk seems remote in practice. Conversely, if US turbulence grows, Spain’s stability and lifestyle appeal could actually make it more attractive as a safe-haven investment for wealthier Americans looking to diversify.
Expert views on property buyers
Property portal Idealista reports that academics and analysts generally expect little impact on US demand for Spanish homes. American buyers in Spain already face the usual property transaction taxes and non-resident income tax, which are unaffected by tariffs. At most, higher inflation in the US could reduce some households’ savings and spending power abroad.
Catalan real estate agents will hope they are right. In 2023, home purchases by US nationals in Spain rose by more than 13%, and they now account for around 20% of all foreign investment in Catalan real estate, according to the Land Registrars (data cited in Idealista article). Demand is concentrated in Barcelona and the Costa Brava, areas popular with professionals, remote workers, and retirees.
Where tariffs might bite: construction costs
While the buying side looks resilient, construction is another story. Alfa Inmobiliaria, quoted in the article, warns that tariffs on raw materials such as steel, cement, and aluminium are already pushing up costs. They estimate construction prices are up 5% compared to last year, and 15% higher than in 2019. Rising costs could slow the launch of new housing projects in Catalonia, putting pressure on supply in the medium term.
What’s changing with tariffs
The European Commission and Washington have agreed to raise tariffs on EU products from 10% to 15%. These apply mainly to goods – from construction materials to wine and industrial components – but not directly to property purchases. On the face of it, American buyers in Catalonia shouldn’t be affected at all.
The bigger picture
Ultimately, tariffs are more likely to hit exporters of Catalan industry and Andalusian agriculture than American homebuyers coming across the pond. As one economist told Idealista, the overall macroeconomic impact should be modest – perhaps shaving a couple of tenths off Catalonia’s GDP. Unless the US enters a full-blown recession, it seems unlikely to derail American demand for property in Spain.
