Mark Stücklin
Donald Trump’s trade war 2.0 is back on the agenda, and as he brandishes the tariff stick at friend and foe alike, the question for this blog is: what impact will it have on American demand for property in Spain?
Love him or loathe him, it’s hard to deny that slapping beggar-thy-neighbour tariffs on almost every other country in the world in a piecemeal fashion isn’t exactly the fast track to global popularity. Whatever the outcome for ‘Making America Great Again’, it’s unlikely to improve the country’s standing in the world—or the way Americans are perceived abroad. Punishing Madagascar and other developing countries because they are too poor to buy anything the US has to sell is not a good look.
That brings us to Spain, a growing destination for wealthy Americans buying property overseas. The US is now firmly in the top ten of rich-country origin markets for second homes in Spain, so it’s worth asking: how might Trump’s policies affect American demand going forward?
Will Americans abroad be stigmatised?
One concern might be whether Americans abroad will face a backlash—social, not economic—for the decisions of their president. Could hostility towards the US discourage Americans from travelling or investing in places like Spain?
It’s possible, but unlikely to be a major factor. Most people understand that the US is a democracy and not all Americans voted for Trump. While it might make for some awkward dinner-party conversations, it’s not going to be a decisive drag on the market.
Trump refugees: Americans looking to get away
More interesting is the potential increase in Americans looking to put an ocean between themselves and Washington. If Trump 2.0 triggers another wave of domestic division or political fatigue, we could see more Americans exploring a new life in Europe—Spain included. In that case, Spain might benefit from a mild tailwind of so-called ‘Trump refugees’ relocating to sunnier, more stable climes.
Dollar strength: headwind or tailwind?
Then there’s the dollar. Tariffs are theoretically supposed to strengthen a currency, but since Trump’s tariff threats resurfaced, the greenback has actually slipped against a basket of other currencies. A weaker dollar means less purchasing power for Americans looking to buy homes abroad—particularly in Euro-denominated markets like Spain. So unless the dollar recovers, expect that to act as a headwind.
US economic health: looking shaky
Another important factor is the broader US economy. If Trump’s trade policies spark inflation without real growth—a likely short- to medium-term outcome—then American consumers will feel the squeeze. That means less discretionary capital for overseas property purchases. Again, a headwind.
The Golden Visa is gone
Finally, while it’s not Trump’s fault, the recent abolition of Spain’s Golden Visa scheme (which ended last Thursday) removes a previously attractive incentive for wealthy Americans to invest. The timing isn’t ideal. Between protectionist policies at home and less incentive abroad, the market could see a slowdown.
The bottom line
Taken together, the outlook is mixed but tilting negative. Trump might drive some Americans abroad, but a weaker dollar, economic uncertainty, and the end of the Golden Visa are all likely to reduce US demand for property in Spain over the next few years—unless his presidency sparks an exodus of wealth looking for a new place to call home.
In short, we might see a few more Americans on the beach in Marbella, but probably not enough to offset the broader headwinds.
Dive into the numbers on US demand in the Data Hub and keep an eye on the market in our half-yearly reports on the American market for property in Spain.
