Spanish property on course for 50pc decline by year end


Spanish property will have lost just over half its value by year end forecasts a leading valuations company. But that’s an important step closer to recovery.

Average Spanish property prices will have fallen to 1,160 €/m2 by the end of December, a decline of 52pc from the 2007 peak price of 2,401 €/m2, predict Sociedad de Tasación, one of Spain’s biggest appraisal companies, in their latest report on the housing market.

According to the report, presented by the company MD Juan Fernández-Aceytuno, house prices fell a hefty 15.7pc in the 12 months to the end of September, to an average of 1,256 €/m2.

Fernandez-Aceytuno said his company expects prices to fall another 7.6pc in the last quarter, leaving prices around 1,160 €/m2 by year end. That would be more than 50pc down since the peak.

Unlike other countries, where prices adjusted much quicker when the crisis struck, house prices in Spain were slow to fall at the beginning of the property crash, but now appear to be making up lost ground. These falls must be some of the biggest current house price declines in the developed world. Is there anywhere else in the OECE where house prices are now falling faster? Not to my knowledge.

But at this stage of the property cycle, falling house prices do not preclude the start of a recovery in sales. “House prices can continue falling, but that doesn’t mean that activity won’t recover,” said Fernandez-Aceytuno. “In fact, I expect that the housing market will start to recover before prices.”

About Mark Stücklin

Mark Stücklin is a Barcelona-based Spanish property market analyst, and author of the 'Spanish Property Doctor' column in the Sunday Times (2005 - 2008).

5 thoughts on “Spanish property on course for 50pc decline by year end”

  1. Juan

    At the end of the day all of the “property is showing better signs of growth, decline is only 20%, things are looking up etc etc” as I have consistently said is wishful thinking. The property market is flooded with vendors and no purchasers. The Spanish mentality is predatory towards foreigners and very short sighted. In the long run unless Spain leaves the Euro there is little hope. I predict that Spain will gradually fall to the bottom of the EU countries with even Greece above them. Good times are over amigos. I do really love Spain but Spain you are out of your league. Juan

    1. Pablo

      I also love Spain and it’s people, but the incompetence and predatory behavior of its politicians towards those that would live here is unbelievable. A recent move by the government to tax solar power tells you every thing you need to know about the politicians here. The desire to destroy any advantage Spain may have beggars belief.

      Can you imagine the response to a similar move by the UK government by all those people who have signed up to blight their roofs for 20 years.


  2. Chris, London

    I also love Spain. Leaving the euro could fix so many problems, very quickly.

    But the Spanish are economically illiterate as when they try to tax every opportunity to lure foreign buyers in… there are places in the USA yielding 10%, with no stamp duty… hard for me to justify buying in Valencia where stamp duty is 10%.

  3. ian thomas

    These are gloomy times and even on the Costa de la luz around Conil de la Frontera [which is a great area with a vibrant local economy of agriculture, viniculture and fishing as well as tourism and no half finished developments] there are sharks buying from people desperate to sell [couples where the wife or husband has died and who didn’t put their home into a UK corporation tax paying company].

    However in the good urbanisations close to the beach three bedroomed 180m2 properties [without pool and in just 1000m2 of land] are now achieving 450,000.00 euros [two sold to my knowledge in the last four months]. The m2 calculation is a good indicator but exclusive factors such as less than 50m2 from the beach and/or with views of the beach affect the price dramatically.

    Yes, I also love Spain and wish they would leave the euro . . . and I wish we would leave the EU . . .

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