Home sales in June were the lowest since the crisis began, though it’s clear that the market has hit bottom.
There were 21,443 home sales in June (excluding social housing), down 3pc on the same time last year, and 10pc in a month, according to the latest figures from the INE.
In volume terms, the Spanish property market has shrunk 65pc compared to June 2007. In value terms the market is down around 80pc by my calculations, which helps explain why the Spanish economy is now in such a profound crisis.
Though sales in June were the lowest since the crisis began, it increasingly looks as if the market has found a floor at around 20,000 sales / month. Given the size of the Spanish population and the basic need for housing, plus some help from foreign buyers looking for second homes in Spain, it is unlikely that the Spanish housing market will shrink much more.
At some point the crisis will begin to ease and mortgage credit will start flowing again, at which point sales will start to pick up. But I doubt that will happen this year. Also, recent movest by politicians to increase taxes on house sales in key regions like Valencia, Catalonia, Andalucia, and the Balearics will not help one bit.
The following table summarises all the key house sales figures for the last seven years:
