September 29, 2012 at 7:55 am
#112464
Participant
According to the Economist, the GDP projections for an adverse scenario are of 4.1% negative growth in real GDP this year and 2.1% next year. Those figures are actually below the current worst forecast, so it’s probably a realistic stress figure. However if there is some calamity eg Germany hits economic trouble or real disturbances break out in Catalunya, then obviously things may change.