Spain’s housing market still has plenty of upward momentum, according to new forecasts from Bankinter — and the bank now thinks prices will rise faster, and for longer, than previously expected.
In its latest markets report, Bankinter has revised its residential price forecasts sharply upwards. The bank now expects Spanish house prices to rise by 12% in 2025, compared to its earlier estimate of 8%. For 2026, it forecasts further growth of 7%, three points higher than previously projected, followed by a still-respectable 4% increase in 2027.
That amounts to at least two more years of strong price growth, with only a gradual cooling thereafter — hardly the sharp correction some buyers and policymakers might be hoping for.
Why prices keep rising
Bankinter points to a familiar but potent mix of drivers. Investor interest remains strong, employment continues to perform well, and liquidity is still abundant. But the real structural problem, as the bank diplomatically puts it, is that land release for new housing is “practically blocked” by public authorities in Spain.
In plain English: supply is not keeping up with demand, and there is no sign that this will change any time soon.
Rising rents are adding fuel to the fire, pushing more households and investors towards buying. Bankinter also expects price increases to be most pronounced in large cities, along the Mediterranean coast, and in the islands — areas with strong population growth and high foreign demand. That should sound very familiar to anyone who follows the Spanish market.
Portugal even hotter
Interestingly, Bankinter believes Portugal will outperform Spain on price growth over the same period. It forecasts price rises of 15% in 2025, 10% in 2026, and 8% in 2027 — consistently higher than Spain.
The reasons are similar but more acute: structurally limited supply, very strong external demand, and public incentives aimed at helping young buyers. The bank notes that housing remains one of Portugal’s main sources of economic and social tension, which is analyst-speak for “this problem is not going away”.
What this means for Spain
The message is clear enough. Spain’s housing market is not overheating in the short term, but it is structurally constrained. Unless supply-side bottlenecks are addressed — something politicians talk about a lot and do very little about — prices look set to keep rising, especially in the places foreign buyers care most about.
