An analysis of the data confirms that house price changes back at home correlate with the number of property investors heading for Spain. No shock there then.

I’ve done a quick analysis comparing house price changes in Germany, France, the Netherlands and the UK with the growth in Spanish property buyers from those countries. The results suggests a good positive correlation between house prices back at home, and the number of buyers heading to Spain. Rising prices at home mean more buyers heading for Spain, and falling prices mean fewer buyers.

Germany and the Netherlands are good examples, illustrated in the charts below. The charts for France and the UK are similar to Germany, as house prices are falling in all three countries according to the latest available data. In the Netherlands prices are rising, so I’ve used Germany and the Netherlands as examples.

This doesn’t mean that house prices changes at home are the main driver of demand for property in Spain. Falling house prices may be symptomatic of other problems back at home that also influence buying power, and therefore demand for property in Spain. Nevertheless, house prices at home look like a good signal of what to expect from countries like the UK, Germany, France and the Netherlands that send a lot of buyers to Spain. When house prices fall, so to do the number of property buyers heading for Spain.