Spanish home sales figures released for December 2019 send mixed signals but on balance it still looks like the market is slowing down.
Spanish home sales in December 2019 according to the notaries
Data from the Association of Spanish Notaries based on sales witnessed by its members in the month shows sales down 1.2% to 53,947 home sales closed in December (chart at top). Sales have declined in seven of the last 10 months, suggesting the recovery has run its course. And if you look at the 12-month rolling total year-on-year, to get a better sense of the underlying trend, you can clearly see in the next chart how the market has gone into reverse.
Spanish home sales inscribed in December 2019 according to the INE
December figures from the National Institute of Statistics (INE) based on sales registered by the Association of Spanish Land Registrars shows inscriptions in the Land Registry up 3% to 34,767 including subsidised housing, known as VPO. Excluding VPO the free market was up 4% to 31,587.
Home sales according to the INE have been negative since August, so a return to growth in December bucks that trend, as you can see from the next chart.
But if you look at the year-on-year change in the 12-month rolling total you see the underlying trend is still downward (next chart).
Spanish home sales in December 2019 by region
December was yet another month of negative sales growth for the Balearic and Canary Islands, but otherwise sales were up in most areas of interest to foreign investors, with the exception of Malaga province/ Costa del Sol, where sales were unchanged over a year.
Next week I’ll look at the figures for the whole of 2019 and provide more analysis of the headwinds and tailwinds influencing the Spanish housing market last year.
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