The SPI House Price Index Tracker plots the progress of the six most-watched house price indices in Spain, and brings them together in one chart.
The following residential property price indices were updated in the third quarter of 2019 (all figures show latest year-on-year percentage change):
- The Ministry of Public Works (Fomento) +3.1% in the second quarter, based on official valuations
- The National Institute of Statistics (INE) index +5.3% in the second quarter, based on data from the Land Registry
- The Spanish Land Registrars’ Association +8.3% in the second quarter, using their ‘repeat sale’ methodology
- The Association of Spanish Notaries index -1%% in July
- The Tinsa index based on property valuations carried out by the company +2.8% in August
- The Idealista.com (property portal) resale asking price index +4.2% in September
Remember these figures for country-wide house prices don’t tell us what’s happening in local segments, and property is always local. They are useful in so much as they help us understand where Spain is in the property market cycle, in which local markets and segments play a part.
This latest data as illustrated in the chart above shows that house prices are still rising according to all sources except the notaries (the most volatile index, as it happens), but all agree that the trend is downwards. This could be a blip but all of them show prices growing at a lower rate than before.
Why might Spanish house prices be cooling, if they are? The Spanish property market is sailing into various global and local headwinds, but one big reason might be slowing demand, with home sales falling 18.6% in June and 20.8% in July, according to the Association of Spanish Notaries.
The global ratings agency S&P forecast that Spanish house price growth will fall from a forecast 5.5% this year to 3.3% in 2022, mainly because of a deterioration in housing affordability that will limit the potential for future price increases. They expect demand to stay strong.
Spanish house prices by type of area in Q3 2019
Appraisal-company Tinsa also break down their index (based on their valuations) by type of area such as cities, coasts, and islands. According to Tinsa, house prices in August were up an annualised 3.1% in big cities and provincial capitals, 2.1% on the Mediterranean coast, and 2.3% on the Balearic and Canary islands, where home sales are declining even as house prices rise.