Summary of housing market forecasts for 2017

There have been a number of forecasts reported in the Spanish press regards the housing market in 2017. Here is a summary of some of the ones I have spotted to date.

OVERVIEW

  • “All the evidence suggests the worst is behind us, but the recovery will be slow, moderate, and very unequal,” says Beatriz Toribio, head of research at Fotocasa,  a property portal.

PRICES

  • Average price increase of 2% max, forecast the Spanish Association of Value Analysts.
  • Average price increase of 2% max, forecast Tinsa, an appraisal company.
  • Average prices rising from +2.3% in 2016 to +5% in 2018, forecast, R.R. Acuña & Asociados, consultants, then stabilising at that rate of growth for the rest of the decade.
  • Average price up 3.5%, forecast BBVA, a bank.
  • “The price recovery now taking place in Madrid, Barcelona, and certain tourist zones of the coast will extend to the suburbs and other parts of the country,” forecasts Toribio
  • Average prices up 13%, forecasts Gonzalo Bernardos, an academic, and the most bullish commentator on the Spanish housing market.
  • Average prices up a maximum of 2%, and 4% in provincial capitals. Barcelona +7% max and Madrid 4% max, forecasts Borja Mateo, a housing market analyst oft quoted in the Spanish press.

HOME SALES

  • 520,000 to 545,000, up 10% to 15%, forecast Tinsa.
  • Up 25% to 600,000, forecasts Bernardos.

MORTGAGES

  • Banks will start charging for services that have been free to date, and commissions will go up, forecasts J.M. López, and specialist in financial regulation.
  • Euribor will rise above zero in the second half of the year, forecast Bankinter, a bank (Euribor finished 2016 on -0.08%).
  • 425,000 to 450,000 new mortgage signings, up 5% to 10%, forecast Tinsa.
  • Mortgage rates will rise in the short terms as banks charge higher spreads to cover the cost of the mortgage floor scandal (estimated at €4b), report Idealita, a property portal.

PLANNING APPROVALS

  • 75,000 to 80,000, up 15% to 20%, forecast Tinsa.
  • Rising to 150,000 per annum in the next three years, concentrated in Madrid, Malaga (Costa del Sol), Barcelona, the Basque Country, and the Balearics, forecast Knight Frank, a property company .
  • Up to 175,000, and housing starts up to 125,000, forecasts Bernardos.

HOUSING STOCK FOR SALE

  • Inventory of new homes never sold will dwindle 20% to 388,000 in 2017,  forecast Servihabitat, a servicer.
  • There 1.4 million homes on the market in 2016, say R.R. Acuña & Asociados, consultants. Looking back, they calculate there were 1.5 million homes for sale in 2015, down by 218,000 from 2010. That year there were a total of 25.5 million homes in Spain, 18.6 million households and 6.9 other homes, of which 4.4 million were second homes and 2.5 million empty homes, giving a ratio of 1.4 empty homes per household, compared to an EU average of 1.12.

NEW RENTAL CONTRACTS

  • More than 40,000 new rental contracts will be signed in 2017 in both Barcelona and Madrid, followed by the Balearics, Alicante (Costa Blanca), Málaga, Valencia, and Seville, with between 3,000 and 7,000 each, forecast Soliva, a servicer. Rental yields will rise to around 4% on the back of rising demand and rigid supply.

SERVICERS

  • Consolidation in the medium term leading to just two or three players. Currently 80% of the market belongs to the five biggest: Servihabitat, Haya Real Estate, Altamira, Solivia, and Aliseda.

About Mark Stücklin

Mark Stücklin is a Barcelona-based Spanish property market analyst, and author of the 'Spanish Property Doctor' column in the Sunday Times (2005 - 2008). He can be reached by email on ms@spanishpropertyinsight.com. All articles published in good faith as a general guide but no substitute for professional advice. Please read the SPI disclaimer

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