Tinsa Predicts Rise in Home Sales, More Price Drops

Desert Springs Almeria apartments for saleTinsa data shows home prices slipped 4 per cent in May compared to a year earlier, providing further evidence that the rate of price drops is slowing.

The decrease compares to a 4.7 per cent decline in April and a 10.4 per cent drop a year ago, the Tinsa reports.

The valuation agency, sounding an upbeat note, forecast a 15 to 20 per cent increase in sales through the end of the year, pointing to economic improvements that should help the housing market, including stabilising unemployment, increased availability of credit, and improving investor attitudes towards Spain.

Tinsa_May-2014_Cropped (350 x 199)The Tinsa report echoes similar themes expressed in recent data from other agencies tracking the market. While none of the reports reported overall price increases, they suggested that the bottom may be in sight.

Tinsa used the “s-word,” concluding the market is showing signs of “stablisation”.

“We are still just on the threshold of the beginning of a real estate recovery,” explained Tinsa chief Iñigo Valenzuela,at a press conference.

But he added that the data is based on a low level of transactions — 300,000 compared to 955,000 recorded in 2006. And there are still 400,000 new homes languishing on the market in search of a buyer, most of them owned or controlled by banks. Experts forecast gradual absorption of this stock between now and 2017, however, the non-prime stock still on the market will be increasingly difficult to sell.

Tinsa_Internnannual_May_2014_Cropped (350 x 205)A shift in the economy could also hamper any recovery, including continuing unemployment and wage stagnation, which could continue to restrict local demand, Mr. Valenzuela noted.

Overall, Tinsa’s data is consistent with the reports from many analysts. Different areas will recover at different rates, most agree. Tinsa released data which shows the coastal areas have seen the largest drops, but are also most likely to see the first signs of recovery.

Tinsa also noted the growing influence of internationals, including an increase in buyers from Holland, Scandinavia, China, and North Africa.

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