Spanish house and land prices are still tumbling, according to the latest figures. Here is a summary of the latest house price measures and forecasts from the most relevant sources.
THE PROPERTY REGISTER
Spanish house prices fell 13pc in 2012, according to the College of Property Registrars (Registradores.org). Peak-to-present, prices have fallen 30pc say their figures.
TINSA (APPRAISAL COMPANY)
Spanish house prices fell 12pc year-on-year in Q1, according to the house price index published by Tinsa, an appraisal company.
By region, homes were 21pc cheaper in Navarre, and 19pc cheaper in Catalonia than a year ago (21pc cheaper in Barcelona province). Price falls of just 12pc in Andalucia and Murcia seemed modest in comparison.
Peak-to-present, national house prices have fallen 35pc, back to where they were in 2004. In Barcleona, they are down 48.5pc, where they were in Q2 2003. Almeria & Malaga provinces -46pc, Girona -45pc.
OFFICIAL HOUSE PRICE INDEX (DEPT. OF HOUSING)
Year on year house prices were down 8pc in Q1 to 1,519 €/m2 according to the official house price index from Department of Housing in the Ministry of Public Works (Fomento).
Prices fell the most in the Canaries (-13.pc), Catalonia (-10.4pc), and Castilla-La Mancha (-10.3pc), Madrid (-10.2pc), and The Valencian Region (-9.9pc). At the other end of the scale, prices actually rose by 1pc in La Rioja.
Peak to present, average prices were down 27.7pc since Q1 2008, when they topped out at 2,101 €/m2.
Resale asking prices fell 1.1pc in April to 1,809 €/m2, after falling for 72 consecutive months, down 39pc since the peak.
LAND PRICES ANALYSIS BY EUROVAL (APPRAISAL COMPANY)
Building land prices are down by almost half in Spain’s biggest cities, according to research by Euroval, an appraisal company. Land prices in municipalities with more than 50,000 residents (2pc of municipalities, where half of all Spaniards live) have fallen 43pc in the last 5 years.
Spanish House Price Forecasts
UBS (SWISS BANK)
The Swiss bank UBS estimate that Spanish house prices have fallen 35-38pc since the peak, and will fall another 8pc before bottoming out at an affordable level, back where they were in 2003 in nominal terms. UBS also expect the Spanish economy to continu in a depression for another couple of years.
BBVA (SPANISH BANK)
With 15,000 homes to sell, BBVA – Spain’s second biggest bank – forecasts that house prices will fall another 8pc to 15pc on average over the next 2 years. However, they do not expect prices to fall in all areas, as prices have already adjusted enough in good areas, they argue.
S&P (RATINGS AGENCY)
S&P forecast that Spanish house prices will fall another 20pc in the next 4 years (using figures with little grounding in reality).