At last, an official House Price Index figure from the National Institute of Statistics that looks half-credible
Spanish house prices fell 11.2pc in 2011 according to the official House Price Index published by the National Institute of Statistics (INE). New build prices fell 9pc and resale prices 14pc.
The headline figure is substantially worse, and more credible, than the 6.8pc fall reported by the Department of Housing and the 8pc fall reported by Tinsa, a leading Spanish appraisal company.
House prices fell the most in Madrid and Catalonia and the least in Murcia and the Canaries. Now that I don’t believe that for a second: In my experience, prices in Murcia are down much more than Madrid. Right now I can’t explain why the index seems to get it wrong when it comes to the regions.
And peak-to-present, prices are still only 20.6pc down (new builds -11.9pc and resales -27.7pc) according to the INE index, whilst everyone knows that prices are in fact down much more than that. Even the Spanish Minister of the Economy says prices are down 35pc.
Nevertheless, I can’t help thinking that an 11pc fall in average national prices in 2011 sounds about right.
The following graph shows the index since it started in Q1 2007, new build in blue, resale in red, and general index in grey.
Juan Miguel says:
I have just one thing to say about the property price figures which is “And the band played believe it if you like!!!”
I know the Spanish authorities are not too good at normal economics but I am surprised that they seem to be unable to do percentages.
You gotta laugh aint ya!
Juan
Thomas Malm says:
What I find surprising is that the freshest car-registration data was up for the first time in ages and I think is a leading indicator in most economies. Have anyone ran the car sales data against housing prices. I think it could reveal an interesting anomaly. Thomas