[Anonymous]

From what I see, Costa Blanca South (around Torrevieja) has seen a
big fall in prices. Same for some areas in Eastern Almeria.

On the other hand, Costa del Sol still stand very tall (prices high) and Murcia
hasn’t seen much decrease (except the resort far away from the Sea).

I do not know much about other areas in Spain.

Which area do you think will bottom out first (whenever that is)?

Do you think that at the bottom the prices/m^2 in Costa del Sol might be 3 times bigger than the ones in Torrevieja area?

[Anonymous]

Morning!
If you go to the Ministerio de Vivienda website http://www.mviv.es you can track both the volume of sales and the (declared, ha!) value by autonomous community, municipality and town hall. Figures to end Q2 2008 are on file and you can track over past 4 years. The stats you want are the second on the list under Statistics, Transaciones Inmobiliarias broken down by Municipios (is a 38.4Mb file so do download it instead of opening within the website – much faster).

Makes for interesting reading. I’ll leave to you make your own deductions as I’m a scum of the earth estate agent with a BMW to pay for 😕 so anything I say will be probably be shot down in flames on this Forum as Spin!

MVIV also published some figures yesterday regarding provinces (which we know bear only a passing resemblance to what is happening on a town by town basis).

En el tercer trimestre del año el índice general de precios ha bajado un 1,3%

En tasa interanual se han producido descensos en los precios en ocho Comunidades Autónomas y en 22 provincias

El precio del metro cuadrado de vivienda libre se sitúa en 2.068,7 euros, lo que se traduce en una variación trimestral del -1,3% e interanual del 0,4%

15 de Octubre de 2008.- El índice general de precios de la vivienda ha experimentado un descenso del 1,3% en el tercer trimestre de 2008, lo que hace que la tasa interanual se incremente un 0,7%. La evolución del precio de la vivienda entre julio y septiembre supone el segundo trimestre consecutivo de reducciones en los precios.

En tasa interanual se han producido descensos en los precios en ocho Comunidades Autónomas: Madrid, (-3,7%); Castilla-La Mancha, (-3,1%); Cantabria, (-2,8%); Canarias, (-2,1%); La Rioja, (-1,6%); Aragón, (-0,9%), Castilla y León, (-0,8%) y Murcia, (-0,1%). En el resto de las comunidades, los incrementos de precios son positivos, Extremadura, (0,2%); Comunidad Valenciana, (1,2%); Asturias, (1,5%); Baleares, (1,7%); Andalucía, (2,0%); País vasco, (2,9%); Galicia, (3,0%); Cataluña, (3,1%) y Navarra, (5,1%) y en el conjunto de las ciudades autonómicas de Ceuta y Melilla, (6,1%).

En el tercer trimestre de 2008 se han producido descensos en el precio de la vivienda en 22 provincias con respecto al tercer trimestre de 2007. En este sentido, es de destacar la Comunidad de Madrid y las dos Castillas: Guadalajara -6,1%; Cuenca, -4,4%; Madrid -3,7%; Burgos, -2,9%; Toledo, -2,7%; Segovia, -2,5%; León, -2,1%; Ávila, -1,8%; Albacete, -1,3%; Ciudad Real, -1,2%; Zamora, -1,2%; Palencia, -1,0% y Soria, -0,7%, así como el de Zaragoza, -2,1%; Álava, -2,4%; La Rioja, -1,6%, las provincias canarias, Las Palmas, -2,1% y Tenerife, -1,7% y la zona mediterránea de Alicante, -1,4%; Castellón, -1,3%; Murcia, -0,1% y Málaga, -0,1%.

[Anonymous]

If you want more info on this in English try this:
http://www.spanishpropertyinsight.com/buff/?p=265

But I don’t think it will help you answer the question which area will bottom out first. The official stats are very unreliable.

Mark

[Anonymous]

@mark wrote:

If you want more info on this in English try this:
http://www.spanishpropertyinsight.com/buff/?p=265

But I don’t think it will help you answer the question which area will bottom out first. The official stats are very unreliable.

Mark

Hi Mark,

thank you for thr information. My question was more about the future.

For example in USA Florida, Nevada, Arizona, Colorado and California fell sharp but they probably will bottom out faster. Utah, New Mexico, Idaho, Georgia are lagging behind and
they will bottom out later.

[Anonymous]

Hi Flossy,

I think it will be a little clearer in 12-18 months time. Sorry I can’t help, but with even the official statistics so unreliable it would be the guesswork of a madman to answer your question accurately.

One thing I will say is that I am sure that there will be several ‘false dawns’ for the recovery point of the market.

Remember also that there is the matter of some 2 million (legal and illegal) properties left over from the building boom. if these are eventually sold off (as I believe they will be) for ~30% of their original price then there would be a catastrophic impact on the pricing for the rest of the property market. A couple of politicians have suggested to demolish these surplus properties to stabilise the market but I can’t see that happening with so many young spaniards and immigrants that would gladly take them.

[Author]

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