Which area will bottom out first?

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    • #54412
      Anonymous
      Participant

      From what I see, Costa Blanca South (around Torrevieja) has seen a
      big fall in prices. Same for some areas in Eastern Almeria.

      On the other hand, Costa del Sol still stand very tall (prices high) and Murcia
      hasn’t seen much decrease (except the resort far away from the Sea).

      I do not know much about other areas in Spain.

      Which area do you think will bottom out first (whenever that is)?

      Do you think that at the bottom the prices/m^2 in Costa del Sol might be 3 times bigger than the ones in Torrevieja area?

    • #87017
      Anonymous
      Participant

      Morning!
      If you go to the Ministerio de Vivienda website http://www.mviv.es you can track both the volume of sales and the (declared, ha!) value by autonomous community, municipality and town hall. Figures to end Q2 2008 are on file and you can track over past 4 years. The stats you want are the second on the list under Statistics, Transaciones Inmobiliarias broken down by Municipios (is a 38.4Mb file so do download it instead of opening within the website – much faster).

      Makes for interesting reading. I’ll leave to you make your own deductions as I’m a scum of the earth estate agent with a BMW to pay for ūüėē so anything I say will be probably be shot down in flames on this Forum as Spin!

      MVIV also published some figures yesterday regarding provinces (which we know bear only a passing resemblance to what is happening on a town by town basis).

      En el tercer trimestre del a√Īo el √≠ndice general de precios ha bajado un 1,3%

      En tasa interanual se han producido descensos en los precios en ocho Comunidades Autónomas y en 22 provincias

      El precio del metro cuadrado de vivienda libre se sit√ļa en 2.068,7 euros, lo que se traduce en una variaci√≥n trimestral del -1,3% e interanual del 0,4%

      15 de Octubre de 2008.- El índice general de precios de la vivienda ha experimentado un descenso del 1,3% en el tercer trimestre de 2008, lo que hace que la tasa interanual se incremente un 0,7%. La evolución del precio de la vivienda entre julio y septiembre supone el segundo trimestre consecutivo de reducciones en los precios.

      En tasa interanual se han producido descensos en los precios en ocho Comunidades Aut√≥nomas: Madrid, (-3,7%); Castilla-La Mancha, (-3,1%); Cantabria, (-2,8%); Canarias, (-2,1%); La Rioja, (-1,6%); Arag√≥n, (-0,9%), Castilla y Le√≥n, (-0,8%) y Murcia, (-0,1%). En el resto de las comunidades, los incrementos de precios son positivos, Extremadura, (0,2%); Comunidad Valenciana, (1,2%); Asturias, (1,5%); Baleares, (1,7%); Andaluc√≠a, (2,0%); Pa√≠s vasco, (2,9%); Galicia, (3,0%); Catalu√Īa, (3,1%) y Navarra, (5,1%) y en el conjunto de las ciudades auton√≥micas de Ceuta y Melilla, (6,1%).

      En el tercer trimestre de 2008 se han producido descensos en el precio de la vivienda en 22 provincias con respecto al tercer trimestre de 2007. En este sentido, es de destacar la Comunidad de Madrid y las dos Castillas: Guadalajara -6,1%; Cuenca, -4,4%; Madrid -3,7%; Burgos, -2,9%; Toledo, -2,7%; Segovia, -2,5%; Le√≥n, -2,1%; √Āvila, -1,8%; Albacete, -1,3%; Ciudad Real, -1,2%; Zamora, -1,2%; Palencia, -1,0% y Soria, -0,7%, as√≠ como el de Zaragoza, -2,1%; √Ālava, -2,4%; La Rioja, -1,6%, las provincias canarias, Las Palmas, -2,1% y Tenerife, -1,7% y la zona mediterr√°nea de Alicante, -1,4%; Castell√≥n, -1,3%; Murcia, -0,1% y M√°laga, -0,1%.

    • #87019
      Anonymous
      Participant

      If you want more info on this in English try this:
      https://www.spanishpropertyinsight.com/buff/?p=265

      But I don’t think it will help you answer the question which area will bottom out first. The official stats are very unreliable.

      Mark

    • #87020
      Anonymous
      Participant

      @mark wrote:

      If you want more info on this in English try this:
      https://www.spanishpropertyinsight.com/buff/?p=265

      But I don’t think it will help you answer the question which area will bottom out first. The official stats are very unreliable.

      Mark

      Hi Mark,

      thank you for thr information. My question was more about the future.

      For example in USA Florida, Nevada, Arizona, Colorado and California fell sharp but they probably will bottom out faster. Utah, New Mexico, Idaho, Georgia are lagging behind and
      they will bottom out later.

    • #87026
      Anonymous
      Participant

      Hi Flossy,

      I think it will be a little clearer in 12-18 months time. Sorry I can’t help, but with even the official statistics so unreliable it would be the guesswork of a madman to answer your question accurately.

      One thing I will say is that I am sure that there will be several ‘false dawns’ for the recovery point of the market.

      Remember also that there is the matter of some 2 million (legal and illegal) properties left over from the building boom. if these are eventually sold off (as I believe they will be) for ~30% of their original price then there would be a catastrophic impact on the pricing for the rest of the property market. A couple of politicians have suggested to demolish these surplus properties to stabilise the market but I can’t see that happening with so many young spaniards and immigrants that would gladly take them.

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