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Not sure if this gives a direct link to the article but it can be accessed via http://www.moneyweek.com
It gives a grim picture of Spain’s poor property market, it’s rising crime and unemployment and comparison for the UK’s property market.
Incidentally, the Wilsons from Kent who own 900 BTL houses in Ashford and Maidstone, enough to rock those boats, have decided to sell up because of the mini rise, do they know something we don’t?
Certainly not markets to invest in right now.
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Hi Angie,
With all due respect to our host Mark.
Do we really think this chap, and many like him in his profession, know their stuff though?
He has a job to do, his job is to sound authorative, to quote his sources, to be polemic, to challenge to pronounce, to shock and be controversial maybe?
Do we any of us listen to him or others anymore?
To counter this there will be any number of other journalists debating the other side of the argument with an upbeat and positive view. But what do they know either?
People like this, don’t make the news, they react to it, comment on parts of it, and are rather dangerous I think, it is just his skewed version of a limited view of data and events.
Is it all tosh really?
Where was he I wonder when the world was falling apart last year?
What was his view of the markets and world perspective in advance?
What do any of them know truly?
I think there is far more reasoned, back and forth debate on this forum that hits the mark across both sides of the argument than what this chap has had to say.
Has he ever been to Spain I wonder, owned a property here or has he just read a few articles himself put two and two together and come up with his own perverted answer?
I trust your view of the market far more than his, and yours doesn’t always fill me with glee but at least it is honest, heartfelt and based upon experience.
And that is what people get on here, a really eclectic mix of views and sometimes a fascinating debate on certain threads. But most always based upon experience.
Me, (with the exception of those delivered and considered by Mark and a few others) I say this article and many like it, along with the recently debated financial report on Spain are actually a lot of tosh.
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It could be tosh Chris but then maybe it’s not.
Personally I think Moneyweek is a pretty authoritive publication and since Merryn Somerset Webb has become Editor I would think it’s content is better than previously. She is one of the sensible economists who called the UK market’s fall correctly.
Regarding Spain, well you know my views, I just would avoid the Costas del Sol and Blanca mainly unless you have a large budget to buy in the better locations and don’t mind paying the agent a huge commission built into the price. The majority of development there is not good, poorly built and overdeveloped and not a good investment.
But maybe I’m wrong.
It’s good though that the Awful Agent has gone from the Coast, some protection for new buyers! 😉
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Ubeda, if the blokes have all got gelled spiky hair, wafting of an overdose of aftershave, open necked shirts, plus a bit of bling, and agree with everything the prospective client says including being a fan of the same football club etc, and worse, tell you ‘you cannot lose’, ‘it’s a no-brainer’, and we will ‘cherry pick the best plot’, then you know they are from Awful Estates, some of their girls were similar too! 😆
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I am actually with the author of the Moneyweek article and would take it even further.
For some months I have been scratching my head as to why the official line on falls is less than 10% when it is blatantly clear that the reality is far higher. How can these 2 numbers be reconciled!
Here’s how! The banks are now the biggest estate owners in the country having repossessed vast volumes of properties, from individuals and developers alike. But few of these have been sold! Why, because most are heaviliy leveraged and the banks are asking prices to clear the debt. And, against the open market, these are then unattractive. They will have to do something with them soon as it is dead money and they cannot hold them indefinitely; they will have issues with the Bank of Spain re reserves, valuations and a whole lot more.
And here’s a thought! If the banks are carrying stock (properties) that have not been revalued down (as lenders elsewhere – the UK and USA for example – have done) how long before the dominoes start to tumble here. Is it deliberate policy to hide the truth from the world or simply stupidity?
And if banks do come under stress, and some fall, that will do no favours for the property market as the banks’ property stocks will have to be sold .. at throw away prices!
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@Mark M wrote:
For some months I have been scratching my head as to why the official line on falls is less than 10% when it is blatantly clear that the reality is far higher. How can these 2 numbers be reconciled!
And if banks do come under stress, and some fall, that will do no favours for the property market as the banks’ property stocks will have to be sold .. at throw away prices!
I wouldn’t spend too much time thinking on official data, be this Tinsa, the Registry office, Hacienda or elsewhere, it is pretty much the same as in the UK with the various index’s and indicators, it depends where you are looking at any given time.
Actually the persons to ask believe it or not, are the agents.
At the end of 2004 I was telling journalists that the trend was going down, and signifcantly so, because I had hard data on more than 50,000 enquries per annum, more than 6,000 new clients viewing property per annum and over 9,000 sales at the point over a number of years.
I could tell you exactly what the trends were, the average selling price was, where the market was, but where can these money analysts and commentators get their data from?
From out of date, irregular reports and sources that lag up to 12 months behind the times.
When official figures were stating that prices on average where 260k a few years ago we could have told them that prices were actually 320k, then when the journalists were still talking the market up and in fact all the emerging markets to boot, we could have reported that interest / leads recorded, was falling by 20%, then 50%, all the way down to 90% long before any official statistics.
And now, all agents can tell you that the properties that are selling have been selling at prices @ 30% below peak, and this has been going on all year, but with a very tough early year period where almost no sales at all were made by anyone – anywhere.
All reputable agents will also tell you that there are no bank repossessions anywhere, it is a myth, they will tell you that there are almost zero new development sales because – 50% discount is a myth, then as to distressed sales, no there are not many of those either, actually there is a healthy enough selling market of people who have a common sense approach to making sure their property is well presented and priced for sale and guess what…people out there buying.
I know people don’t want to hear it, but my associates showed property to 23 new first time clients last week alone. So, who is going to tell you that figure? Well some journalist about a year from now when he reports – one whole year late – that there is actually a market, just like they reported one year late that the market was gone and dead.
My associates have actually just hit the 30 sales mark in 64 days, nothing like what they used to do for sure, but far and away beyond what I would guess any journalist thinks is going on.
A huge amount of these journalists and speculation is the journo turning up to report; at the fire several hours late, printing the story the next day, as if it is happening right now, when the fire is already out and the site cleaned up.
There is an awful long way to go, but seriously, and you read it here, not from some financial journalist, and I am sure Claire, Charlie and Katy will bring it up in the future if I am wrong…
Unless there is some cataclysmic event such as last year, anyone in the real estate business in Spain can tell you, our market collapsed well before the UK / USA or elsewhere.
That prices have gone as low as they can or will go, and you will not have banks throwing away stocks at any prices, for goodness sake haven’t they screwed us all up enough already?
It’s not their money they would be throwing away, it is our taxpayer bail out money from across Europe, they don’t need to sell, because we sure as hell aint going to let any more banks go bust.
Iceland served its purpose in being a country bankrupted and destroyed as a warning to all nations not prepared to toe the line (note one letter different Ireland) but thats it.
Lehmanns was the short straw of any of Merrill Lynch, Goldman Sachs, and one certainly had to go to teach the rest a lesson but that’s also it.
Don’t we get that? That’s the reason they don’t have to throw away stock, it is because they are being bailed out by all of us, until they have regularised their position. It isn’t going to happen. They park it in the toxic assets bin for now, and sell it off later, much later, and at a benefit on paper at least to their balance sheet.
And the worst is over, trust me, it couldn’t have got any worse in Spain, and it might be a long time in recovery, could be 5 years, but that doesn’t mean there are not still people out there buying and acting, while others are sitting around commentating on old waffle and outdated figures. There are people who make the news, and their are journalists and commentators…
So don’t trust them… ha, your going like this… just trust me, I know I’m an agent! (Well still remotely sort of involved anyway)
And finally, I repeat the Moneyweek article is all TOSH.
Been a bit quiet on this site for a few weeks, hopefully this lights a few fires! Gets us going into a good thrashing argument for a week or so.
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Chris McCarthy wrote:Mark M wrote:I wouldn’t spend too much time thinking on official data, be this Tinsa, the Registry office, Hacienda or elsewhere, it is pretty much the same as in the UK with the various index’s and indicators, it depends where you are looking at any given time.
AgreeActually the persons to ask believe it or not, are the agents.
Yes, probably not the one person outfits, they are all bullshitting each other. If they did know would we ordinary punters get the truth.
At the end of 2004 I was telling journalists that the trend was going down, and signifcantly so, because I had hard data on more than 50,000 enquries per annum, more than 6,000 new clients viewing property per annum and over 9,000 sales at the point over a number of years.
Agree, but I think that is why Spain’s market is so much worse, it happened without the credit crunch
Unless there is some cataclysmic event such as last year, anyone in the real estate business in Spain can tell you, our market collapsed well before the UK / USA or elsewhere.
AgreeSo don’t trust them… ha, your going like this… just trust me, I know I’m an agent! (Well still remotely sort of involved anyway)
Scepticalquote] 😆
I only get info’ from friends who are trying to sell, most of them for more than 2 years! Admitted some are overpriced but not all.
A member of this site has bumped up their house for sale today. I noted it has been on the market since 2006 😯
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@katy wrote:
Just to add, I think the reason this site is quiet is because there aren’t many people remotely interested in buying a property right now.
Or those that are, are well enough informed by now not to need to keep revisiting the site, or maybe the site has done its job, and we go into a nice sleepy pleasant phase much like the early to late 90’s where the coast was for people who just simply wanted to be there, for all its pluses and minuses, where it was not the centre of so much contentious debate, disappointment and diatribe.
Now that would be nice I think. I like this site for many reasons, not least of which is the fact that I was listened to and didn’t have people trying to rip my arms off for having been an agent, and I really wanted to understand the depth of peoples frustrations and anger at a lot of issues, because your right the Spanish property crisis preceded the world crisis, and what a mess it was.
But perhaps it has all been said, and I leave it to the remaining contributors to dispense the almost universal good advice that people get coming here, well save the bit about not buying for 5 years, that was a bit over the top even though I understood the good intention.
I think I should go though, otherwise I might outstay my welcome, and inevitably engage in “sales blurb / patter” and “talking the market up” of which I was recently and possibly quite accurately accused.
It has been a highly interesting year that I have been coming in here and I would like to thank everyone for making me so welcome whilst I was here.
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@Chris McCarthy wrote:
But perhaps it has all been said, and I leave it to the remaining contributors to dispense the almost universal good advice that people get coming here, well save the bit about not buying for 5 years, that was a bit over the top even though I understood the good intention.
.OK Chris, would you tell some prospective buyers why should they buy in Costa del Sol? Lets consider they do not want to visit between November and March so the mild winter argument is not important.
From what I know, other places have much better beaches, warmer water and not so much ordevelopment.
I for one already decided to go again to Barcelona and Costa Brava in June 2010 and might visit Ibiza or Formentera during 2010. All these places have much better sea and beaches. Besides, the flights to Barcelona are now under £44/person return and hotels can be found for cheap.
If I were retired and wanted to stay over the winter, then Costa del Sol might have been my choice.
So Chris, why would somebody (who does come over the winter and cares about beaches and warm sea) buy in Malaga area?
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Mark
[For some months I have been scratching my head as to why the official line on falls is less than 10% when it is blatantly clear that the reality is far higher. How can these 2 numbers be reconciled!
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Why have you been scracthing your head, this has been obvious.[They will have to do something with them soon as it is dead money and they cannot hold them indefinitely]
I think you will find they can.
[they will have issues with the Bank of Spain re reserves, valuations and a whole lot more]
I think the Bank of Spain will positively encourage the banks to hold onto there portfolio until better times, and may even provide help for them to do this,(surreptitiously of course), this of course will exclude the real dogs that will eventually find there way into the social housing sector and probably make a profit on paper for both the developer and the state.
THIS IS SPAIN
[Is it deliberate policy to hide the truth from the world or simply stupidity?
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Oh its guite deliberate but not stupid, its only the uk and the us that admit we are in the shit, and then look what happens.
[And if banks do come under stress, and some fall, that will do no favours for the property market as the banks’ property stocks will have to be sold .. at throw away prices!]
No Chance!
Chris
I was out last week and had a beer with the agent who I bought with last Feb, I asked him a direct question, how’s the market, he had absolutely no reason to lie or massage the truth with me, he’s had my commision.
Basically the market has dropped by 30% from peak to trough, I reckon this is spring 2007 to March this year. My agent told me that enquiries were buoyant and that sales had improved(to all nationalities).And finally, just had an e-mail from our own Inez Rix, well from her company Direct Auctions, they have sold 5 out of 9 properties listed at auction today, some improvement there then.
Steve V
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30% what a laugh, bet they wish it were so 😆 I wouldn’t believe any of them….99% don’t know what the truth is. One fact is telling porkies won’t help push up the market, those days have gone when punters listened to all that drivel.
Official figures show that for July the whole of Málaga province only had 818 re-sale transactions…share that out between all the agents either working from offices or the kitchen table 😆
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Katy
Whats your take on it then? how do you view the market on the CDS at the moment, you are well placed, you live there and have done so for many years.
I get the impression from recent posts that you have fallen out of love with the CDS and are looking to spend more time in the uk,I on the other hand have just recently become a home owner and am still understandably very pleased with my purchase.I dont post much these days because I know I will be accused of having a vested intrest in talking the market up, however I’m certainly not wet behind the ears, sales are increasing on the CDS, without doubt.
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@Stevev6 wrote:
Katy
Whats your take on it then? how do you view the market on the CDS at the moment, you are well placed, you live there and have done so for many years.
I get the impression from recent posts that you have fallen out of love with the CDS and are looking to spend more time in the uk,I on the other hand have just recently become a home owner and am still understandably very pleased with my purchase.I dont post much these days because I know I will be accused of having a vested intrest in talking the market up, however I’m certainly not wet behind the ears, sales are increasing on the CDS, without doubt.
SteveSteve , maybe you can answer. Why did you buy on CDS and not somewhere else?
I am sure that CDS is much different (mainly in worse) thatwhat was when Katy moved there. After visiting Corfu, I can say that the lifestyle in CDS is not the usual Mediteraneean one and places I visited in CDS are mostly Britain with Sun.
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Steve, I think you have the right attitude. I am always suprised when people make statements such as we don’t want to live near any Brits
or we want to live amongst the spanish Then move to Andalucía and do not speak any spanish!That is one of the reasons why I like Marbella, good hospital, a real Spanish working town (discounting Puerto Banus which isn’t really marbella). Not indunated with tatty British bars, yet there are some if wanted. Our friends are a good mix. British (majority), Norwegian, German and spanish. There are clubs and societies covering most interests.
I only give my personal opinion and wouldn’t dream of knocking anyones choice of purchase. Yes we are disillusioned with Spain at the moment but we have had some happy years here. Some people love Calahonda, I couldn’t live there for a pension but if that is what someone likes, and many do I wouldn’t say they were wrong.
My opinion is that I would not buy now (especially with sterling falling daily) and I would never buy in Spain if it were solely for investment. Our best ever investment is in the North of England, terrace houses. Never seen them and probably never will 😆
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@katy wrote:
Just to add, I think the reason this site is quiet is because there aren’t many people remotely interested in buying a property right now.
The £ again drops towards parity wrt to Euro. 1.10 oficial rate now.
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Hi Katy
I’m sorry to hear that you have become disillusioned with life in Spain, I suppose after spending a long time there, just as anywhere else in the world, a change is as good as rest. Maybe you could do six months there and six months in the uk, that’s my aim.
I agree with you post entirely.
A couple of points though, firstly from the ‘talk it up’ prospective, the figure for resale homes being sold in the province of Malaga was 851, this is for the second quarter of the year and is made up of 733 sales to non residents and 118 to residents, I didn’t think this figure was to bad given probably three quarters of the land mass is inhabited. More importantly though the figures represent an increase over the first quarter of 7.1% and 26.8% respectively.
Michael
Although I have bought in ‘Britain by the Sea’ we are not the expat stereotypes that will only mix with and go to English bars, We love to go up into the hills and get away from it all, visit and shop in towns miles away from the coast, we have virtually furnished our home with things bought in non expat areas, and what bargains we have had.
I have been learning Spanish for three months now, and I mean learning not playing at it like most of the expats I know, this has been really enjoyable as it’s the first formal learning Ive undertaken since I left school. I’m starting to get by now which is really satisfying.
Anyway less of the waffle, some things don’t change I am off for theDesayuno ingles todo grande
Es correcto Katy? -
I think Mark M has called it right regarding Moneyweek which is not ‘a load of tosh’ as Chris Mac calls it, that’s the talk of an agent trying to talk things up again.
What worries me is, Chris talks of how well his ‘Associates’ are doing, the very mention of his ‘Associates’ remind me of the days of Viva, ADH, Ocean etc full of these gelled haired people constantly talking the market up whilst earning a huge commission.
Have these ‘Associates’ pointed out that these clients are paying up to 30% more for their properties on the weakness of Sterling against the Euro currently compared to a few years ago, that if the exchange rate swings back in favour of sterling again the same clients will lose out again should they wish to resell? No they wouldn’t tell new unwary clients about this or that their view will be spoilt one day etc I doubt!
When he talks of ‘reputable agents’, well many Brits would like to see an honest register of such in Spain and elsewhere.
So whilst Chris offers a debate here sometimes just beware of his own bias and occasional rants at those here who tell it as it really is, you really can lose a lot still in Spain, it probably will fall further as Moneyweek predict! 😉
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Angie
The good agents out there, and there are some, should be and are advising there British clients who are of course the vendors, that if they repatriate there euros the money will be worth 30% more and therfore they can afford to drop there asking prices quite significantly.
Personally I don’t think moneyweek are right, but lets see where we are in a years time.
I fancy there will be a lot of ‘told you so’ going on, but from what side!! -
Currency is always a risk though, especially right now. Whatever/whichever way I do a transaction it always works against me. Supposing someone sells at 200,000 to a Brit taking today’s rate (1.105). Transactions take at least a month, by the time the cash is received the rate could be 1.205 (or more). If changing into sterling the difference is about £15,000.
One property we bought in Spain we decided to leave the money on high interest in sterling until near completion. Peseta had been steady for a couple of years…the Pound dipped! Purchase cost £8000 more than planned and that was when 8000 was a lot of money. 😆
6 months in each country is ideal, many of our friends do this, returning to Spain at the end of october. They do seem to be the most well-balanced ones. Myself, burdened 😉 with 2 cats and 2 dogs. Was an expensive journey through France with the dogs and an £850 flight for the cats…..ok. I am crazy 😆
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Just to go back to Mark M´s remarks and the original article.
Mark, I´ll join you amongst those baffled by the figures. Of the various indices around I´d say that Tinsa are the most accurate but they are only showing 19.8% since the December 2007 high. A lot of anecdotal evidence seems to be pointing to falls of closer to 30%.
The big question to me is, Can the Spanish banks ride out this downturn, supporting property prices, until the market recovers? For what its worth, having experienced the problems in Ireland first hand, I think the scale of this downturn is so big it will overwhelm them. The powers that be can´t, as in the early 90s, devalue the currency to get themselves out of the bind they are in.
One respected economist who has been following the situation in Spain closely is Edward Hugh. In his most recent blog he posted this:
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The looming problem of what will happen as and when some of the other Eurozone economies eventually start to recover while the Spanish one languishes in decline is finally starting to make the columns of the global financial press. Yesterday Thomas Catan had an article in the Wall Street Journal entitled Spain’s Struggles Illustrate Pitfalls of Europe’s Common Currency
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB125288334119806859.html?mod=googlenews_wsj
while Emma Ross-Thomas and Gabi Thesing also had a similar sort of piece in Bloomberg, under the heading Europe’s Two-Speed Economy Complicates ECB Rate Plans.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601085&sid=a20YJhKcupw0
So the difficulty Spain could represent for the rest of the Eurozone is now it seems becoming the “Topic du Jour”.
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Earlier this year S&P forecast that prices in Spain would continue to fall until 2012. They were poo pooed by some of the EA community on here for being so negative. If anything I now feel that figure is too conservative.
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I totally agree that the good agents in eurozone should be advising vendors who wish to sell and repatriate to the UK, to reduce their prices by 30% or more because the conversion to sterling would still stand them in good stead, but unfortunately many vendors want it both ways and then can’t understand why their properties don’t sell.
When we bought in Spain, we got 1.64 euros to the pound, now you are lucky to get 1.10 and the weekend’s Press are predicting parity soon so one pound will buy one euro, a disaster if you’re buying in eurozone for Brits making purchases a ‘no brainer’ for not buying there.
There is urgent need in Spain though for a Gov’t register of reputable agents, not the Mickey Mouse memberships of AIPP or FOPDAC which any agent can buy in to.
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Angie
Yes I think you are right when you say vendors want it both ways,I would its human nature, but many of the brit vendors are old and infirm and haven’t had it explained to them properly and basically dont undersatnd the fx thing,many bought years ago with the peseta and still stand to make lots of money.
On the other hand you’ve got the people who bought recently who are in negative equity if they reduce.
Alltough we only bought last feb I was lucky enough to have most of the money in euros from 2007 at 1.52 otherwise we would have turned tail, I was so near bringing the money back last christmas.As Katy says I cant see any brit buying at the moment, but the euroland people will soon be back in force picking up the bargains.
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@Stevev6 wrote:
As Katy says I cant see any brit buying at the moment, but the euroland people will soon be back in force picking up the bargains.
The crisis is as bad everywhere in Europe so money is scarce everywhere.
Besides, euroland people are far less obsessed with property than Brits and they prefer to rent.About the bargains, where are they? The 1.5 million+ properties still need to be sold.
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Michael
Believe me there are bargains to be had(I can only talk for the CDS), you have to scratch the surface a little bit, they wont come to you. It depends on what you want from the property,many single unit investors are not intrested but there are property fund managers coming to Marbella looking to do deals
It is now generally exepted by the ‘talk it ups and the talk it downs’ that property has fallen by around 30% since 2007 -
@Stevev6 wrote:
Michael
Believe me there are bargains to be had(I can only talk for the CDS), you have to scratch the surface a little bit, they wont come to you. It depends on what you want from the property,many single unit investors are not intrested but there are property fund managers coming to Marbella looking to do deals
It is now generally exepted by the ‘talk it ups and the talk it downs’ that property has fallen by around 30% since 2007Sorry, I do not think there is any real bargain there. Just properties who were WAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAY over valued and now they are just
WAY overvalued.30% reduction means the same price in Pounds as in 2007 so no reduction there.
Same for Romanian Leu, Polish Zloty or any ex-Communist country, all their currencies fell by about 30% with respect to Euros.For any serious Brit buyer to be interested, at least a 25% reduction with respect to
2007-2008 Pound prices is a starting point.As Mark writes, a 25% reduction in prices between now and 2012 is a best case scenario.
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There will be a few bargains, older people who bought before the boom, perhaps one partner has died, people who have inherited and want to offload quick. Many on the CDS don’t need to sell, they will wait for the upturn. Others can’t afford to sell because of negative equity.
I haven’t seen many good deals around, a lot of property has been on sale for over 2 years and still are not reduced. Even with a 30% reduction some still look expensive. Take a look at the Agents websites don’t look cheap to me. The bar-room stories are all around the coast of one million euro houses going for 400 thousand. Yet to actually see one 🙄 We did view one that had been 1.2 million and going for 500 thousand. We were disappointed to find that it was scarcely worth the reduced price…needed gutting!
I cannot see that investors would be in right now, that story should be filed under rumours such as Disneyland. These stories are started by Estate agents, what would they know! real Investors don’t go to small time agents. I know an Iraqi investor, has been investing on the coast since the late seventies. He is desperately trying to sell as many as possible before a move to the USA. Too huge outgoings when rentals are drying up. Even at 60% reduction it wouldn’t be wise for a serious investor. BTW, I was an accountant…albiet for charities 😆
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@katy wrote:
There will be a few bargains, older people who bought before the boom, perhaps one partner has died, people who have inherited and want to offload quick. Many on the CDS don’t need to sell, they will wait for the upturn. Others can’t afford to sell because of negative equity.
I am not trying to find anything anymore anywhere in the world , too cheap to rent
But I am sick and tired of hearing about recoveries when the economic fundamentals are clearly telling us that the fall has just started (in Spain, Greece, Bulgaria, Italy, Turkey, Cyprus or any possible holiday destination. UK is a different case and in USA the fall might finish soon).
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this is my 2nd post— when will everyone get it right there will be no recovery in the short term .today the euro is on parity with the pound !!who in their right mind is going to purchase a property in spain. people who have properties they need to rent must come to terms with the asking price .a 2 bedroom flat in the uk costs on average £550-£600 per month it makes the asking price in spain look ludicrous.its nice to give your mind a treat but its your mortgage payments that need a treat. i feel sorry for the retirees who moved to spain and now find their pensions are inadequate their living standards have gone, many are learning to live on the breadline. my advice if you can sell then sell,its then easy to negotiate a nice long term rental at a sensible price . i and some of my associates have calculated that an apartment that is on the market for 300000 euros then the offer price should be £150000. there will be an outcry on this statement but remember (the golden rule) he or she who has the gold makes the rules i wait with anticipation for the replies
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Hi Braveheart
Welcome to SPI, I’ve just read your first post, liked it.You clearly have first hand experience of property here on the CDS unlike some posters who just post negative propaganda without actually seeing whats its like on the ground.
Yes I admit things are not good for many, but in my opinion(based on what I see and hear) things are not as bad as some would have us believe.It may well be better to rent at the moment but there is still a steady stream of people buying, you just need to visit the notarys in Fuengirola and Marbella to see whats happening.
With regard to your 300ke flat, there isn’t one unless your are in a great area in or near Marbella, if I was going to buy a 300ke flat today I would want:
At least 130 sg mtr built and 3 beds, not overlooked and private
Nice area with sea view, south west facing
At least two terraces, 50sq mtr, 1 open 1 covered
Underground parking and security, CCTV and door entry
Lovely pool and gardens
Latest kitchen and bathrooms with cream marble throughoutAnything ordinary,2b 2b advertised in 2007 at 300ke would be worth a shot at 150k today.
Someone earlier today said ‘what bargains’, I wasn’t going to post this link but I will from Inez’s web site Direct Auctions, have talked about this property before.This property was sold at the July Auction
http://www.direct-auctions.com/en/resales/property.details.asp?propid=10998
Reserva de Marbells, East Marbella, ok no LFO but will have with the new PGOU in October. As they say now its a no brainer.
So Braveheart, he who has the gold makes the rules. -
@Stevev6 wrote:
Someone earlier today said ‘what bargains’, I wasn’t going to post this link but I will from Inez’s web site Direct Auctions, have talked about this property before.
This property was sold at the July Auction
http://www.direct-auctions.com/en/resales/property.details.asp?propid=10998
Reserva de Marbells, East Marbella, ok no LFO but will have with the new PGOU in October. As they say now its a no brainer.
So Braveheart, he who has the gold makes the rules.What is “bargain” part in the property mentioned by you?
Last line before AP-7, smallish pool, far away from the so-called Las Chapas beach. No LFO (why would anybody buy an illegal property when there are millions of legal ones around the world?).From my experience in Riviera del Sol, I am almost sure that the majority of people do not pay their community fees….
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It does seem a bargain. These apartments have been for sale at around 175 to 190 thousand a couple of years ago. None were sold. Yes they will be legalised but there may be a cost to do this in Marbella Town Hall’s policy whereby the developer has to pay to legalise. We all know this developer won’t and the cost will be for the owners of the units.
I know someone who has a place there. They paid about 110,000 in the beginning. La Reserva has lots of problems, many long term renters, dogs crapping and barking, terraces full of junk. Some landslips and structural faults. Community wrangles. My friend rented long-term to a spanish couple, they stopped paying rent after two months, left after five months taking a lot of the furniture with them. They tried short term holiday lets, one couple asked for their money back, they thought the location was awful!
Browsing on that site there aren’t any bargains….wonder which bank gave those valuations 😯 😆
Notaries are always full, not necessarily property sales though. Almost everything in daily life has to be notarised.
Shakeel, I agree with your post.
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unlike some posters who just post negative propaganda
Steve,
I have to pick up on this remark as I´m probably one of those you put in this category.
To put things in context I am a potential lifestyle purchaser. I´m looking for somewhere I will semi-retire to in 10 years time. I have cash in the bank (euros) and have been looking for a two bedroom apartment on the CDS for well over a year now.
When I first started looking there were plenty on this site and elsewhere saying ´the market has bottomed´, ´the worst is over´, etc. Even after the banking problems blew up last Autumn some were assuring us that ´The market will be recovering by the end of 2009´. We all now know that, at best, that can only be described as wishful thinking.
No, I´m not on the ground but in the last year I have made three trips to the CDS and viewed some 15-20 properties. Of those only one, a distressed sale, represented anything like value for money. It wasn´t for me but has since sold. As far as I am aware all the other properties are still unsold.
In most cases asking prices have barely shifted from December 2007 peaks. Anecdotes (Including from Inez at Direct Auctions) indicate that, where properties are selling it is at around 30% off the asking price. Braveheart´s suggestion that buyers should go in around 50% is therefore not too far off the mark. If vendors are insisting on asking silly prices why shouldn´t purchasers offer silly money then meet in the middle?
Also, I have long been interested in economics and firmly believe that the housing market, be that in an area, a country or a continent, is very dependent on the economic situation. What I see at present in Spain is this.
– Building boom has left over 1 million unsold new properties.
– Repossessions are rising and set to do so substantially.
– Spain, now in the Eurozone, is unable as in past recessions to devalue its way out of trouble.
– Unemployment, currently the highest in Europe, will continue to rise. it will probably peak around 22%.
– Government spending is running out of control. The Zapatero regime is doing nothing substantial yet to tackle this. Serious austerity measures are just around the corner.
– The banks are holding on to substantial, overvalued, property portfolios. These are growing at such a rate that they are in danger of being overwhelmed.I´m not even going to enter the pound/euro debate suffice to say that the British who were previously by some way the largest overseas purchasers on the costas have now been priced out of the market.
Edward Hugh, one of the most respected Spanish economists, recently hazarded a guess that we may see further 40% falls although at the same time he readily admitted that it was ´anybodys guess´. Frankly I´m inclined to give more weight to opinions such as his than to those, usually with vested interests, who have been telling us for the past few years that ´Now is a good time to buy´.
Now you can call that ´negative propaganda´ all you want. I call it economic fundamentals.
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@katy wrote:
I know someone who has a place there. They paid about 110,000 in the beginning. La Reserva has lots of problems, many long term renters, dogs crapping and barking, terraces full of junk. Some landslips and structural faults. Community wrangles. My friend rented long-term to a spanish couple, they stopped paying rent after two months, left after five months taking a lot of the furniture with them. They tried short term holiday lets, one couple asked for their money back, they thought the location was awful!
My intuition was right then. 😛
I never thought of asking money back, unfortunately I am sure it does not work. 😆
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Katy
It does seem a bargain.
It was a bargain, its sold now.
Brian Hi
No the remark wasn’t aimed at you
In most cases asking prices have barely shifted from December 2007 peaks. Anecdotes (Including from Inez at Direct Auctions) indicate that, where properties are selling it is at around 30% off the asking price. Braveheart´s suggestion that buyers should go in around 50% is therefore not too far off the mark. If vendors are insisting on asking silly prices why shouldn´t purchasers offer silly money then meet in the middle?
Totally agree.
I´m not even going to enter the pound/euro debate suffice to say that the British who were previously by some way the largest overseas purchasers on the costas have now been priced out of the market.
Totally agree
To put things in context I am a potential lifestyle purchaser. I´m looking for somewhere I will semi-retire to in 10 years time. I have cash in the bank (euros) and have been looking for a two bedroom apartment on the CDS for well over a year now.
Brian, given your circumstances(euros in the bank etc) I cant understand why you dont buy in the next year. You could have 10 years of ‘life style’ before you even retire, lifes to short.
Where is Chris McCarthy and the other agents when you need them.
Help I’m sinking 😆 [/quote] -
Brian, given your circumstances(euros in the bank etc) I cant understand why you dont buy in the next year. You could have 10 years of ‘life style’ before you even retire, lifes to short.
Where is Chris McCarthy and the other agents when you need them.
Help I’m sinking 😆 [/quote][/quote]I would go for the life is too short too. However, if it is only possible to spend about 6 weeks pa. in the property…just rent. We made maximum use of our spanish property when it was a second home. Left the UK Friday pm. took the early flight back Monday am 8)
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I fully agree with the ´life is too short´ argument that is why I continue to look. Truth is that if I find the right place at the right price I´ll buy it. Even now when I do believe that prices have further to fall.
Problem is that the vast majority of vendors, I include the banks here, have unrealistic expectations of what their properties are worth at present. I feel it is going to take either a couple more years of pain or a banking crisis before reality sinks in.
In the meantime my money is sitting in equities and doing very nicely, thank you.
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@Stevev6 wrote:
Where is Chris McCarthy and the other agents when you need them.
Help I’m sinking 😆Hi Steve,
I made an earlier post on this thread, that after a year of enjoying the debate here I was to make my leave.
I am popping in and out of this thread, I intend it to be my last for awhile and I had no intention of posting again however as the thread is still strong and not wanting to see someone sinking, I will see if I can swim back for a mo and help you out, until this thread dies out.
All your points are well made Steve, it has been interesting nay fascinating to watch and listen to what a ‘recent buyer’ feels and says about their decision to purchase.
However, all you are hit with is % price falls, the exchange rate. renting versus owning, the terrible cost of the Costa, unsold properties, bank stock et al. You must have been mad to buy hey?
I get all of that argument, and I think you do also, I don’t think you argue all of that and nor do I really. But then who is listening to your story, how your decision is working for you and others, then accepting that as an equal reality also?
Well Katy is, and one or two others, but then Angie thinks I personally make occasional rants and talks about agents with their spiky gelled up hair, to paint a picture that sometimes just confuses the picture, or our resident SPI site economists and market analysts talk long term projections and prices waaaay over the top and also confuse the picture.
I said it was all ‘TOSH’ the moneyweek article and much more besides because for me it is all overly indulgent, overly analytical and really so much pie in the sky thinking about what will or won’t happen, and who are these people that can so clearly predict the future? Where were they when we needed them before Northern Rock one year and Lehmans a year later? Nowhere, absolutely bloody nowhere.
I think I have said a number of times, that if buying a property here on the CDS is something that you are in any way unsure about, well just don’t do it. End of story.
If you can’t afford to buy, or are unsure about what to buy, when or where, and renting seems like a sensible option to you, then simply do what works for you. End of story.
I also revealed some actual figures that go against the intellectual debate and philosophical argument here; figures that are on the ground, right now activity, I said that one agency had 23 first time clients in the first week of this month, I can now report that in the second week they had 21 clients, I am still waiting to hear how week three went, but these are some pretty impressive numbers in terms of active interest really.
People don’t get into an agents car, or follow him or her from property to property just for the fun of it, they do it because they have a clear and present interest.
One agency, 44 clients in two weeks. That is real news, it is forefront stuff and it is in spite of the ‘exchange rate’, the doom and gloom further 50% predicted falls, the over supply blah blah.
I stick up for the Costa, I recently discovered that Boothy who had searched long and hard for a property and bought despite everything he had read here over many months, actually bought a listing from my associates, through another agent (he gave me permission by PM to reveal this) I thought his story was fascinating.
I find it interesting that my associates are looking to sell now a property every other day, one day soon maybe one every day and who knows one day in the future back to ten every day.
Or then again, maybe none in a week or a month again? Who knows, if I predict any of that it will equally be ‘TOSH’ and yes I would agree a gelled up agent talking the market up.
I don’t think I ever did that, I also never pitched investment/investment during the boom years, in fact I officially complained more than a dozen times to the Advertising Standards Authority about people who did. I wrote quite polemically in HOT Under the Collar articles for many years about ‘fast buck’ agents, about so called award winning agents, spiders lurking on the web, prostitute and pimp agents selling overseas emerging markets.
If I have ever had a rant at anybody, it was against my own profession, in print and to a big very public audience. I was never in the category or of the description applied to the so called ‘big agents’ we were for our sins bigger than all of them, but we followed different practices, entirely different; witness the fact that over the years our ratio of property sales was more than 80% resales over new projects, whereas the others would have been 98% the other way.
But enough of me patting myself on the back, its not a pretty sight.
More about you Steve… You bought at a great time I think, you bought because despite everything you read here, you could afford to, you took a look at what you could get for your budget and you bought something that was really going to work for you, now and in the future, with I would venture relatively low risk, but as you were not buying purely for investment et al, hell no risk at all over the longer term.
Other people who have stayed the heck out the market while the world got over its cataclysmic shock – are now looking to their futures also, in increasing numbers, I know, you know, we are looking on the ground, not another tosh ridden article in Moneyweek.
You are trying to tell the august members of this forum that…
Yes, the notaries do have plenty of activity in them, my associates are there every other day, people are buying, of course they are, the CDS is a FANTASTIC PLACE (note the use of capitals to denote a rant Angie) it has a great future, and it is absolutely marvellous to get over to.
I go again next week, been here in the UK for a couple, I can’t wait!
The people on here were so right for so long, but I think now they are getting it wrong on some issues, and maybe that is why the site has been incredibly quiet, there are almost no threads and no posts.
It was mooted that this was because no one had a remote interest in buying in Spain right now, but perhaps it is because there are more people like you Steve, than other people know.
And maybe like me, they have had a year or two of looking in here listening to the highly informative, instructive and good analysis but think; do you know what? Enough is enough, there comes a time to buy, to enjoy to move on, and the arguments here are so old, repetitive and a bit tired, what’s wrong with a bit of sun, wine on the terrace and fish on my plate on the beach?
There is every opportunity today to do just that, to look at the market, set a budget find the best thing that money can buy for that budget and just enjoy life if you are able to afford to do so.
Will the market somehow crash further, hell after last year, anything could happen. Will there be up and down on the exchange rate, yep but equally it might stay where it is for the next five years. Will prices actually start to rise at some point, hell yep again, that is the very nature of our economy.
Does everyone want to wait around until the people on this site tell them to buy? Heck no, don’t think so, this site was right, still often is, but not nearly so right as your posts have been on this thread Steve.
Sorry I wasn’t here to throw you a line before, but actually I thought you were doing a pretty good job of telling it how it is, how it is not all Moneyweek and tosh theorums about the market, sometimes it is just about being able to afford it and about life being for the living.
I don’t know if this is the help you were looking for, but I definitely think I need to go take a waaaay back set for another year or so.
Hopefully this long ‘rant’ is now indeed my final contribution for awhile.
Cheers and maybe when I am on the coast one day, if we somehow in the same company as often happens in that village the CDS, we should have a few beers.
Chris
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Regarding bargains on the Costas if they exist, they will primarily be private sales where no excessive agent’s commission is built in, or a large concrete urbanization, or right along the awful main CDS road, but at the end of the day they won’t be bargains in Spain whilst it’s 11% completion costs exist or the remaining 1-2 million unsold homes are still for sale.
Now, a few scurulous agents will still say to Brits, ‘it’s a buyer’s market’ which, at £1 to 1 euro is no way ever going to be a bargain in Spain or anywhere in Eurozone! 😉
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Yet again Chris you are factually incorrect about Moneyweek and where were they before Northern Rock and Lehmans etc.
The editor Merryn Somerset Webb was discussing the impending financial and property problems way before they happened, the property bubble, Bank Bonuses, the Sub-Prime lending etc etc. She along with Justin Urquart Stewart, Roger Bootle, David Blanchflower all economists were trying to get the message over years ago.
You make good points Chris but often they seem biased towards buying again in Spain when the economics just do not make sense and people should still beware of buying whilst these conditions exist!!!! 😉
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@angie wrote:
Yet again Chris you are factually incorrect about Moneyweek and where were they before Northern Rock and Lehmans etc.
The editor Merryn Somerset Webb was discussing the impending financial and property problems way before they happened, the property bubble, Bank Bonuses, the Sub-Prime lending etc etc. She along with Justin Urquart Stewart, Roger Bootle, David Blanchflower all economists were trying to get the message over years ago.
Why do you think that Chris have heard about Merryn Somerset Webb, Justin Urquart Stewart, Roger Bootle and David Blanchflower?
He is specialist in selling houses. not economical predictions. 😀
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@angie wrote:
The editor Merryn Somerset Webb was discussing the impending financial and property problems way before they happened, the property bubble, Bank Bonuses, the Sub-Prime lending etc etc. She along with Justin Urquart Stewart, Roger Bootle, David Blanchflower all economists were trying to get the message over years ago.
😉And they weren’t the only ones, I spoke at any number of industry seminars, to banks, constructors and agents, and asked just where the heck they thought the madness of rising prices and hysterical promises could or would end? I wrote the same and quoted the same to the national press.
Thank you though for conceding that along with my occasional rants I make some good points from time to time also. That is most gracious of you.
So does Steve and he is just asking to be listened to as well.
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@goodstich44 wrote:
…….well, on a positive note I doubt the queue for for the bar will be very long!
Are you so sure Goodsitch? Or are you just sure that you won’t be there, and if you are not, then in your eyes it counts for nothing, yet the fact might be that there be a few people just plain having a good time despite your view!
Regardless, if you are ever on the Costa and I am there at the same time, why not pop along and we have a beer also, if for no other reason than it might be interesting to meet outside the forum, I’d actually like to know more of your story personally it is unlikely I can help but it might help to highlight your case more.
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@flosmichael wrote:
@angie wrote:
Why do you think that Chris have heard about Merryn Somerset Webb, Justin Urquart Stewart, Roger Bootle and David Blanchflower?
He is specialist in selling houses. not economical predictions. 😀
And yep therefore as equally likely to talk TOSH!
Jeeze wish this thread would start to fall down a few steps, I need to be off into the sunset for awhile.
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@Chris McCarthy wrote:
And they weren’t the only ones, I spoke at any number of industry seminars, to banks, constructors and agents, and asked just where the heck they thought the madness of rising prices and hysterical promises could or would end? I wrote the same and quoted the same to the national press.
You do what??? Speak at seminars?? In what quality? What credible aspects of life do you present during “seminar talks”?
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@flosmichael wrote:
You do what??? Speak at seminars?? In what quality? What credible aspects of life do you present during “seminar talks”?
Oh dear…
Well any number actually of associations and conventions actually, was once treated to fly First Class on Virgin, all expenses paid to boot, to speak for an hour or so to the American Resort and Developers Association in Miami, with about a thousand or something attendees listening to my little bit, along with countless invitations to SIMA and… and oh look the list is too long you don’t need it do you?
Been on Telly a couple of times too Flosmichael, and was once acclaimed completely without my knowledge or consent as one of the top 20 movers and shakers in Spanish real estate, which was completely ridiculous and took a bit of living down. But hey someone thought I was qualified to attain the status, goodness knows who they were or how they decided.
Gosh I am sorry if that offends your or shocks your sensibilities.
Steve where are you? Seems someone wants to now puncture my rubber ring and let me sink now.
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@Stevev6 wrote:
Hi Chris
Thanks for letting me have the afternoon off.
You have the ability to make the point far more eloquently than I.
I appreciate your comments.
SteveHi Steve,
Phew, glad you are still there!
I think it is time for me to go now though, and permanently, looks like it is going to get ugly and personal, sometimes happens here, but really have said everything I have got to say and often more than once which has probably bored a few people.
But it was really interesting too, and actually your points were far more valid than mine, because you have done something that everyone talks about, or on here just worries about, or simply goes on and on about not doing, for goodness sake we get all the financial analysis – wanting decision paralysis – but yours is another view and good luck to you.
I think you going to have a lot more fun and pleasure than some others here really.
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@Chris McCarthy wrote:
@flosmichael wrote:
You do what??? Speak at seminars?? In what quality? What credible aspects of life do you present during “seminar talks”?
Oh dear…
Well any number actually of associations and conventions actually, was once treated to fly First Class on Virgin, all expenses paid to boot, to speak for an hour or so to the American Resort and Developers Association in Miami, with about a thousand or something attendees listening to my little bit, along with countless invitations to SIMA and… and oh look the list is too long you don’t need it do you?
Been on Telly a couple of times too Flosmichael, and was once acclaimed completely without my knowledge or consent as one of the top 20 movers and shakers in Spanish real estate, which was completely ridiculous and took a bit of living down. But hey someone thought I was qualified to attain the status, goodness knows who they were or how they decided.
Gosh I am sorry if that offends your or shocks your sensibilities.
Steve where are you? Seems someone wants to now puncture my rubber ring and let me sink now.
OK, so you were one of these “people” who used their “knowledge” to “help” some fools part with their money?
And you call those seminars??
Top 20 movers and shakers in Spanish real estate? Was it on Real Estate TV or A Place in the Sun? Both renowned for their “usefulness”.
Gosh, I always liked people who want to appear angels… Anyway, as long people still fall for your charm, you will be a rich man.
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@flosmichael wrote:
OK, so you were one of these “people” who used their “knowledge” to “help” some fools part with their money?
And you call those seminars??
Top 20 movers and shakers in Spanish real estate? Was it on Real Estate TV or A Place in the Sun? Both renowned for their “usefulness”.
Gosh, I always liked people who want to appear angels… Anyway, as long people still fall for your charm, you will be a rich man.Whooaa Flosmichael…!
I am not taking myself that seriously, why are you?
Looks like you got some issues here, you having a bad day, got a toothache or something?
You want to try staying with the thread here? I haven’t ever had a fight with anyone on this forum and I certainly don’t want to start one with you on my departure.
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@Chris McCarthy wrote:
@flosmichael wrote:
OK, so you were one of these “people” who used their “knowledge” to “help” some fools part with their money?
And you call those seminars??
Top 20 movers and shakers in Spanish real estate? Was it on Real Estate TV or A Place in the Sun? Both renowned for their “usefulness”.
Gosh, I always liked people who want to appear angels… Anyway, as long people still fall for your charm, you will be a rich man.Whooaa Flosmichael…!
I am not taking myself that seriously, why are you?
Looks like you got some issues here, you having a bad day, got a toothache or something?
You want to try staying with the thread here? I haven’t ever had a fight with anyone on this forum and I certainly don’t want to start one with you on my departure.
The thread is about some Moneyweek article which you consider rubbish.
I am trying to see if you have credentials to make such claims and you have not presented any.Anyway, I do not have anything against estate agents in Spain or wherever so let us make peace. I hope that you fully understand the situation in Spain and I am fully aware of the fact that selling property in Spain brings bread to your family so you cannot say bad things on a public forum..
Ciao.
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@flosmichael wrote:
The thread is about some Moneyweek article which you consider rubbish.
I am trying to see if you have credentials to make such claims and you have not presented any.Anyway, I do not have anything against estate agents in Spain or wherever so let us make peace. I hope that you fully understand the situation in Spain and I am fully aware of the fact that selling property in Spain brings bread to your family so you cannot say bad things on a public forum..
Ciao.
I think there is more than one person who would tell you I have had more than my fair share of bad things to say, in this and as I pointed out to you earlier, on far more public forums and available media than here, and I would venture always out in the open, having never shied away from the truth of matters to do with the negative aspects of the Spanish property market.
Shame my credentials don’t stack up for you. I can see from other posts, that you have been making detailed notes on everything from coffee prices to beaches to different urbanisations across the whole country; I will accept those credentials of yours without comment as to their worth.
However, hopefully you might understand, that despite my credentials not being up to one of your marks out of ten, in your own coast to coast analysis; that I have at least lived and worked in Spain for 20 years; so I think I should know a thing or two about fully understanding the situation – not just hopefully – or without, after that amount of time, having to be further patronised about bringing bread to my family.
Enough is enough here already, I need to get my rattle back into the pram, so amen to making peace regardless and good luck to you.
Jeeze Steve, what did you get me into here; I never should have looked back!
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@Chris McCarthy wrote:
I think there is more than one person who would tell you I have had more than my fair share of bad things to say, in this and as I pointed out to you earlier, on far more public forums and available media than here, and I would venture always out in the open, having never shied away from the truth of matters to do with the negative aspects of the Spanish property market.
Shame my credentials don’t stack up for you. I can see from other posts, that you have been making detailed notes on everything from coffee prices to beaches to different urbanisations across the whole country; I will accept those credentials of yours without comment as to their worth.
However, hopefully you might understand, that despite my credentials not being up to one of your marks out of ten, in your own coast to coast analysis; that I have at least lived and worked in Spain for 20 years; so I think I should know a thing or two about fully understanding the situation – not just hopefully – or without, after that amount of time, having to be further patronised about bringing bread to my family.
Enough is enough here already, I need to get my rattle back into the pram, so amen to making peace regardless and good luck to you.
Jeeze Steve, what did you get me into here; I never should have looked back!
Well, I was just a tourist in Spain who presented a personal impression about what I thought of Spain in August 2009.
From there to your claim that any article from MOneyweek or wherever who say bad things about Spanish property is a long way.
My understanding is that you came on htis forum in 2006 to defend the real estate agents who did not protect their buyer-clients from purchasing
illegal properties. Older posters like goodstich or charlie know much better if you were right or not in your claims.What you need to understand is that the situation in 2009 is much different than the one before 2007. The credit will be tight for a long time,
the Pound MIGHT be low for a long time, the UK and Spanish unemployment might be high for a long time. All these do not bode well for holiday house purchasers.Anyway, I wish you good luck Chris in all your present and future business!
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I don’t take much note of financial articles. I use my own indicators. I do hope I am wrong but I still believe Spain will have many years doom and gloom. I cannot see how sales can improve on the Costas with present prices and the sterling fall. British have always made up the greater part of buyers in Andalucia…I think the figure was/is about 80%.
The cost of an average house in the UK is from £158000 to 178,000 depending which paper is read. There is still not a lot to be bought for this in Spain if oncosts are factured in.
My indicators that Spains property market is not healthy are:
Nearly everyone I know is trying to sell. Most for more than two years. One person has not had a viewing for months.
When our golf club fees were due this year many did not renew. 8 of these were estate agents.
Banks are coming out with very low valuations.
Many, both tourists and residents are disenchanted with development on the coast. Rip off prices, poor service. The car hire fiasco this summer is a good example. There has been a change in the attitude of Spaniards, there is a lot of anti-british sentiment. (I read local spanish forums sometimes).
I owned property during the last recession and this is worse. However, with reference to Steve and a few more owners if you are in it for long term enjoyment and lifestyle why not! But believe me you are certainly not getting a bargain.
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Hi Katy
Good day at the coal face nearly 17 online at one point 😆
I don’t take much note of financial articles. I use my own indicators.
This is what my argument has been all about
British have always made up the greater part of buyers in Andalucia…I think the figure was/is about 80%.
Don’t think its that high.
Courtesy of the Olive Press May 2009
BRITONS are still buying in Spain in large numbers.
According to the latest statistics, British buyers accounted for 58 per cent of all European purchases of property in Spain last year.
Contrary to belief that the British market has collapsed, it has in fact only dropped by five per cent since its peak in 2006.
Previous studies had suggested the figure could be closer to 30 per cent, with Germans and Irish buyers playing a larger role.
But the official government figures, released this week, put an end to that.
According to the data, German buyers accounted for only 7.7 per cent of the European market, followed by Irish buyers at 7.5 percent and the French with 6.1 per cent.
Russians were one of the few nationalities that actually bought more property in 2008 than 2007, accounting for 6.4 per cent of the 19,924 registered sales to Europeans.
British buyers dropped from 63 per cent in 2006 to the 57.6 per cent in 2008.
Nearly everyone I know is trying to sell. Most for more than two years. One person has not had a viewing for months.
Have they reduced over that time,? I guess they must of, but by what percentage?
When our golf club fees were due this year many did not renew. 8 of these were estate agents
I let my Woburn membership go this year, many others did to, various reasons, can’t justify 3k a year playing 4 rounds 😆
Banks are coming out with very low valuations.
About time, after the horse has bolted, they are doing it in the uk to, dont even come out anymore, just computer generated.
Rip off prices, poor service.
Yes us new expats need to explore this and start new businesses to compensate
There has been a change in the attitude of Spaniards, there is a lot of anti-british sentiment. (I read local spanish forums sometimes).
Now that is very worrying
S
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My daughter is in the process off buying a house in the UK . Valuation £40,000 below asking price, £90,000 below original asking price. Daughter-in -Law office manager in a Law firm. She says valuers are being told to undervalue as a yardstick and that their conveyancing team are seeing this all the time.
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7 of the 8 Estate Agents returned to the UK. maybe they got tired of earning money 😆
I don’t know where the figures in the Olive Press came from but if this were true why does all the ex-pats in Spain all agree that times are bad. I post on another forum, most members live in Spain and out of the ones stating they are trying to sell not one has actually sold. I personally know of two sales this year, one was bought by a Spaniard for his Son, the latter was bought by a Norwegian.
The Russians may save the day but they have been coming as long as Disney. The ones who do buy go for those OTT mansions if they can use the black stuff 😀
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Hi Ralita
Nice to see you post again
Sorry Steve, are you always so optimistic about purchases? Or could we understand a bit of buyer remorse (a very normal human feeling)?
Good question
I can honestly say no to that, coming up for 10 months now and we still got that silly grin, who knows, we may live to regret it,have probably lost money.
Anyway I’m off to build a wall today,had enough of looking at computers yesterday.
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most valuers/valuation are for the protection of the lender. The valuers appeared happy to ‘over’ value on the way up and now are quite naturally (both at the instruction of their employer/client (the lender) and in fear of invalidationg their prof indemnity ins), now building in a margin of fall on the way down.
Not sure about Spain but in the UK the gov has used lots of tax payers money and other tricks to artificially hold up UK prices, this has only prolonged the correction of the market (hence lower vals by surveyors in anticipation) and possibly made it longer and worse than it could have been. I have no doubt prices in the Uk are going to come under great pressure as unemployment and taxes rise in 2010/11 and delayed distressed sales come onto the open market.
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An example here been on the market for a while. Looks a good price. Surely if lots of Brits were buying it would not linger!
http://www.spanishpropertyinsight.com/forums/viewtopic.php?p=39643
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@katy wrote:
An example here been on the market for a while. Looks a good price. Surely if lots of Brits were buying it would not linger!
http://www.spanishpropertyinsight.com/forums/viewtopic.php?p=39643
They sell 3 bedroom apartments in that city for 47K Euros (fotocasa.com) so 210K Euros should purchase a castle over there. 😆
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Flosmichael, the economists I mentioned are very well known and respected in the UK and someone with Chris’ experience and knowledge will definitely know of them despite him being an agent, personally they have, and will, probably still predict things fairly accurately.
I really think that Spain would have less property problems and bad Press if the likes of Chris and some of the more respected agents had stuck together to pressure the weak, inept, maybe corrupt Spanish Gov’t into regulating the industry properly and evicting the many cowboy agents, developers and lawyers, and town hall mayors etc.
Where were they when they were needed, the point I’m making is the same as Chris’ point about where were the economists when needed.
Just my opinion though and not an argument. 😉
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@angie wrote:
I really think that Spain would have less property problems and bad Press if the likes of Chris and some of the more respected agents had stuck together to pressure the weak, inept, maybe corrupt Spanish Gov’t into regulating the industry properly and evicting the many cowboy agents, developers and lawyers, and town hall mayors etc.
Where were they when they were needed, the point I’m making is the same as Chris’ point about where were the economists when needed.
Just my opinion though and not an argument. 😉
It’s an OK opinion, but was too big a job to expect from us I think.
As I said we at least tried, and I think tried quite hard, and that’s why I spend time here, because in my own little way, I am still concerned and still trying to do the right thing. And I hear every word you say Angie argument or not.
But am afraid was way too big a job, and if all the worlds banks were engaged in buying horrendous bad debt from each other and still packaging it on to each other, and if the RBS and HBOS came literally within hours of destroying the entire British economy and have plunged the country into the worst crisis in peace time… and we the taxpayers throughout Europe now have to bail them out, and no one could tell us what was going on, then what chance did we have of sorting our side of the great debacle really?
What matters is now I think.
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Chris, I sort of understand what you’re saying regarding the Spanish Gov’t, but what was so frustrating is that Viva Estates and you, along with say the smaller or better respected agents, did precious little to bang the drum for a more honest and regulated property market that we’re aware of.
For example it was well known and documented about Ocean Estates and a few others in the Press etc, yet no-one seemed to have the cahones to denounce them. Maybe it was a fear of reprisals, eg, I knew sales people there who started their own agencies having not been paid by Ocean or fed up with their B
t, yet they openly told me they couldn’t say much in case of damage to their offices.Had more of you joined forces, the rogues would have been outed much earlier.
Then introducing better regulation, plus, LOWER and FAIRER commissions, and, refusal to sell these vast concrete developments because of the incentives offered (greed), and more transparency for both buyers and sellers with none of the hype about ‘views not being lost’, ‘cherry picking’ and ‘you cannot lose’, maybe, Spanish property would not have such a bad reputation.
For the future though, how on earth is Spain going to sell the nearly 2 million unsold newbuilds falling into disrepair, these are never going to be worth buying for Brits, even at discount because of current exchange rates?! 😕
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@angie wrote:
For the future though, how on earth is Spain going to sell the nearly 2 million unsold newbuilds falling into disrepair, these are never going to be worth buying for Brits, even at discount because of current exchange rates?! 😕
With regard to the denouncing part of your post, again I would say I did exactly that which you expect of me, but its been forgotten, its long ago, and now well I just don’t know who was listening, you evidently were not and nor were they. But it is all a moot point by now, we could have done more, we should have done even more, and we failed.
Point taken and accepted, but I am still here and trying into the future, I think you recognise that, which I very much appreciate.
Lets hope that many lessons have been learned and that the Spanish regional and national government can say the same. But we all have our doubts about that I think.
With regard to the now “2 million unsold new builds” I am sorry but this now seems to have somehow doubled from “1 mllion” which in the first place, I was unsure of actually being the case, and is certainly not a figure that was limited to the Costas, in fact is in truth far more in terms of urban areas across the whole of Spain.
But they will be sold, the market recovers, that is what happens, there will be a demand, there is a supply, and the exchange rate moves around from one month, year and decade to the next, it all comes out in the wash is I suppose what I am saying.
Some people see this as the perfect opportunity believe it or not, and for them… it is and will be, and the circle will start and go around once again. There will be people benefitting from other peoples losses, there will be people sitting and enjoying the sun because their day has not yet come to sell who will benefit later on, because there is a good million or more Brits who still want to go to Spain eventually.
I know I live here also. And I have spent most of the last week in Newcastle and Manchester, and while I might have a difficulty swapping lovely Harrogate for Marbella, I would have no problem in the areas I was this last week.
Nothing is going to change that I think.
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When we bought in the CDS the main agents pushing properties like mad were Ocean, Interealty, Viva and ADH, I think Atlas were doing the same on C. Blanca.
It was like a free-for-all, frenzy for the larger agents with their glossy magazines and equally glossy roadshows, they all sold like there was no tomorrow and 1000’s of Brits, Irish, and other nationalities were duped into this mass hysteria of reserve now before you lose it, then they were taken along to the agent’s preferred in the pocket lawyer and once the contact and deposits were done, the majority of these agents ignored the same clients and moved on to the next unwary bunch.
It was sickening!
Thank goodness for the Sunday Times and Mark’s website for exposing the trickery.
At the time, no-one in the industry was remotely interested in proper regulation, it was hype and sell at any cost, with buyable motor manufacturer awards for ‘Best Agency’ etc etc
That’s why the 1,623,000 and probably more homes now lie unsold, and scruffy. These will never represent good value for money, the build will mainly be Jerry Build as well, guarantees will be worthless, noise will always be a problem and service costs will be higher than expected.
People have at long last had their eyes open to this sort of misleading mass selling in Spain, Turkey, Cyprus, Thailand, Bulgaria etc.etc!
Now, those in any position left in Spain should lobby the inept Spanish Gov’t. because the property and tourism markets have gone into freefall.
Spain shot itself in both feet, it will not be investable again until their many problems are addressed! 😉
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angie
all very true. If Spain wont even try and do right, by setting up some sort of fund to compensate those so clearly cheated through corruption, lack of regulation and the slow and often hopeless justice system, and then putting it’s house in order with regards to these and overbuild issues (amongst others) very soon, what hope of confidence from potential buyers who know full well now the state of the property industry, who’s to blame, why it’s in this mess, and the bleak outlook? What is a bargain, when it could well be worth much less in a year or two or three? What is the Spanish government doing to restore confidence that this will not be the case?, blaming it all on the world recession?.
I would love to see the costa’s back in a strong position. The current situation is bad for everyone, but will it recover without strong leadership from the top or protest from the masses?
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@angie wrote:
It was sickening!
Thank goodness for the Sunday Times and Mark’s website for exposing the trickery.
This trickery has a very simple name: Ponzi scheme i.e. sell the stuff to the next buyer. As long as the base of the pyramid is big enough, the scheme works. When the base thins, the pyramid collapses.
This is the main reason why the property markets collapsed, the pyramid crumbled.It is the same situation in France, Italy, Turkey, Bulgaria, Cape Verde,
Romania, MOrocco, Greece, USA, etc. If they do not build anything in the next 10 years, it should still be enough for anybody who goes in holiday. -
Appologies if I’ve posted this before: Written in early 2005.
Well over a million Britain’s now own holiday homes abroad. Our love affair with owning ‘a place in the sun’ has never been greater. As ever Spain, France, Italy and Portugal are proving popular. More recently as prices have been pushed up in these countries we’ve looked further a field. To places like Slovenia and Croatia in what was the old Socialist Federal Republic of Yugoslavia. You can’t beat the Dalmatian coast only don’t dig too deep in the back garden, as mass graves are commonplace and 20,000 bodies are still unaccounted for. They don’t put that in the sales presentation. Recently Latvia, Bulgaria and Romania are being pushed as the next hot, ‘Fly to Buy/Fly to Let’ leading edge locations. When buying abroad its important to recognise that the laws, processes, customs and practice, for the transfer of unencumbered title to land and property, are not the same as in the UK. We hear horror stories, where unsuspecting Brits having bought abroad, only to find themselves with no end of problems, having either been duped or failed to take appropriate precautions. Be it problems with the escritura (title deed) or building permits in Spain, Villas built on war expropriated land in Northern Cyprus or inheritance/tax issues in Monrovia. As mentioned earlier with countries like Romania and Bulgaria now being pushed as destinations to buy holiday homes, the term Caveat Emptor has never been more appropriate.
If you’re not entirely happy with the reputation for honesty of Estate Agents at home here in the UK, wait till you meet some of the ex Transylvanian Donkey rustlers selling unsuspecting Brits holiday homes in Tulcea and Constanta on the Black Sea! Where next? Ski lodges in Nagorno-Karabakh, just 8 days yak ride from Baku international airport. Or Beach Villas on the Aral’s Sea health Spa, specialising in chemical body scrubs, with all the toxic pollution you can drink. “Prices start at 3 million Dram (£15,000), 10% discount if you buy off plan. Legal title guaranteed by The South Caucasus Development Corporation of Kazakhstan All deposits underwritten by the Bank of Chechnya, as advertised on Channel 4 by the regional goodwill ambassador Borat! Don’t miss this ground floor, investment opportunity of a lifetime”……….. I mean seriously they are now advertising apartments in Ulaan Baator Mongolia, to us Brits, as a fly to buy investment destination. The decedents of Genghis Khan must by laughing into their celebratory ‘airag’ (fermented mares milk) cocktails!!!
Don’t let the next, up and coming, leading edge location that’s being pushed as a must have investment, turn from leading to bleeding edge for you!
I can only think that on arrival in a hot country the caution we would normally exercise when about to spend (and in most cases borrow) a life changing amount of money, goes out of the window. Maybe it’s the heat, the warm sea, the swaying palms and unfamiliar, intoxicating, aromas of the exotic, which relaxes our guard. Alternatively it could just be that our natural caution is blunted by materialistic desire, brought on by greed, masking itself as a dream in which many temporarily part company with commonsense. There are many great investment opportunities out there, but to safely take advantage of them you need to exercise the same level of caution and due diligence, you would back home and then some!
Pablo silver or lead?
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Totally agree with you both Goodstich and flosmichael. In fact the description of it by flosmichael as a Ponzi scheme, (Pyramid selling) is exactly what it is.
Goodstich, you are very well informed and we often bang the same drum so we both know that the Spanish Gov’t still does nada to address these issues, they, like some agents, just turn a blind eye to past events as if they were’nt guilty of gross deception. The 4 agents I mentioned were all at it, they swapped staff at the drop of a hat, they were commission crazy and went off to bars to toast their deceptions on champagne and ready for as they called them ‘another mug punter’, and these were the British agents, just like Foxtons and a few others in the UK.
Spain would do well to try and re-instate it’s devastated coastline and sliced off hilltops, and knock down many of these unfinished concrete jungles.
The Spanish Ministers should then go to confession and start cleaning things up. 😉
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angie
I don’t think it’s helped by those in denial of the real situation? Positive thinking/talking is great when the time is right, but who do they think they are kidding?, and what good are they doing? I feel that everyone living in, or buying in to Spain in any way should stand up for the change required to get Spain back on the right track.
Until certain issues that are so wrong are dealt with head on, then it’s hard to see much recovery?
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Here’s a quotable quote for y’all.
“For three hundred years our history has been marked by the alternations of ‘prosperity’ and ‘distress’ which are produced by the booms and their collapses. When the collapse comes, the people who are left long on goods and land [and stocks] always make a great outcry and start a political agitation. Their favourite device always is to try to inflate the currency and raise prices again until they can unload. . . . No scheme which has ever been devised by them has ever made a collapsed boom go up again.”
William Graham Sumner 1896
Nothing new under the sun.
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You’re right Ponzi, markets, politicians, Gov’ts, estate agents and many others with vested interests, all manipulate the media in creating another boom in order to offload their portfolios.
In today’s Telegraph, Roger Bootle of Capital Economics says that UK property is still overpriced and will fall again because either the economy will shrink again or interest rates will have to rise, either will have a negative effect on property. 😉
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Now tipped to start falling katy in the UK starting next year, which is an election year (bad for the property market historically), plus Winter coming and unemployment still rising, all according to the economists unlike the estate agents with a vested interest.
The recent uplift was down to a shortage of stock and overpriced by vendors and agents, many of those buyers with cash in the Bank have already bought but probably too high a price.
Most agents are still showing unsold properties (overpriced) they had over 8 months ago, often vendor priced. 😉
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You’re right about that katy, but if you ask the honest uk agents, they will tell you that fresh stock to the market that’s sensibly priced is selling fairly quickly, old stock is overpriced, however the longer term outlook according to the economists for previously mentioned reasons is far from rosy.
As you said earlier, we will see, but I have more faith in the views of certain economists, and the UK is stuffed with debt for years to come because of Brown and the Banks. Interest rates will inevitably have to rise sometime, many tracker mortgages are ending before xmas, it’s all very uncertain times. 😉
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