[Anonymous]

Amazing. Maybe it’s time to go short on gold and long on US property…. 🙂

[Anonymous]

Been thinking about shorting gold for a long time now but I have pulled out everytime I’m about to do it. Pretty cool statistics.

[GarySFBCN]

How useful is this information if the this is a gold ‘bubble’ ?

[logan]

Gold is safety in a turbulent world. Invest in it with your reserves on a regular basis your whole life and build up a strong position. It’s not for shorting it’s about the only long term guarantee.
I agree there’s been a bubble lately that will change when the worlds economies recover.
You cannot make money in property any longer, least of all in the US.

[rt21]

It’s an interesting graph.

Although I’m not quite sure whether the downward trend is the result of a significant increase in value of gold in that period, a significant drop in the value of the dollar or a significant drop in the value of house prices or as is probable a combination of all three

Richard

[Chopera]

I’m bearish on property but I think most comparisons with gold forget that property as an investment can give you something gold can’t: an income.

Also property investment allows you to leverage (which can also act as an inflation hedge).

Also there’s a good chance that gold is in a bubble right now – and if it pops you can guarantee that the commodity pros will get out in time and the amateur investor will take the hit.

[logan]

All bubbles burst eventually. I certainly would not buy gold at the inflated values we see at the moment.
I agree property can provide an income in the right place but that generated income is falling along with capital values, with increasing costs. Also the risk of empty leveraged property is high.
I’m also totally bearish on property right now. I did think the Far East was a growth area but just take a look at the over supply of office space they are currently creating in China and elsewhere. It’s massively out of control fuelled with cheap money. The sheer scale is mind boggling.
Where have we heard that before? Spain, Ireland and the US and look at the result.

[Anonymous]

@logan wrote:

You cannot make money in property any longer, least of all in the US.

I’m sure people say that near the bottom of every cycle, then some people go on to make fortunes out of property. This time around I think it might take longer than in previous cycles, but essentially it will be no different. We will just have to wait 10+ years to find out who is right 😀

If I could, I would buy prime US property right now. Relative to other assets inclucing cash US property is starting to look cheap, and relative to gold it’s down 80pc. Meanwhile, the stock market is something like 50pc over-valued, according to The Economist.

[logan]

Agreed Mark but the risk factor in US property is extremely high.
Buy to let in the UK is now proving a winner with rents going sky high due to people having mortgage difficulties, high deposits required by banks and supply difficulties in some areas.
Those with a buy to let portfolio who survived the initial crash and panic look well positioned.

I wish I could say that the same could happen in Spain. It’s possible renting could take off among the cash strapped Spanish but only in areas of high population where there is at least the chance of a job.

[Author]

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