December 18, 2009 at 9:32 am #55348
Two years ago Mark started a thread: Spanish property market 2007/2008 report discussion.
43,240 views and we discussed for 30 pages! Maybe Mark should do one for 2009/2010. Or has he done one already. 😯
Reading now with hindsight what we were all saying back then makes interesting reading.
And did Peter Good get it wrong!!!!!
“On a serious note though, 2008 will probably be where the slide hits the bottom….. I suspect 2009 to be the year we begin to talk about a revival in the market”.
So much for advice from an Estate Agent.
Mark also posted a link to his: A review of the Spanish property market in 2007, and forecasts for 2008. He got this right:
We also have to consider the possibility of a post-boom construction-lead recession in Spain, despite forecasts from serious organisations like the ECB, OECD, and the IMF all saying that Spain’s economy will grow by more than 2% in 2008 and 2009.
I have written this report on the assumption that there will NOT be recession in 2008, as one has to assume that the institutions mentioned above know better than me. But given Spain’s massive current account deficit, high levels of household debt, low productivity, high inflation, falling competitiveness, and over-reliance on the construction sector for economic growth, I personally think that a construction-lead recession is likely (let’s say a 51% probability). If there is a recession, then most segments of the Spanish housing market are doomed to stagnant or falling prices for years to come.
Well done Mark!
December 18, 2009 at 10:01 am #95708
I remember the erudite Bernard and his spectacular ‘forecasts’ too!
December 18, 2009 at 10:21 am #95710
Goodness I’d forgotten about Bernard. I wonder how he and his project (a polo-combined-holiday resort if I remember rightly) is doing in Portugal.
December 18, 2009 at 12:11 pm #95716
Thanks for reminding me of that Charlie. I was actually a lot more bearish and expected a savage recession, but just couldn’t believe that all those august institutions could get it so wrong, so I toned it down.
I’ll do a 2009/10 version over the next few weeks, then throw it open to the floor.
The polo development in Portugal was repossessed by the bank.
December 27, 2009 at 2:34 pm #95788
It is raining, and the little town looks totally deserted. It is tough times, everybody is in debt, and everybody lives on credit.
Suddenly, a rich tourist comes to town… He enters the only hotel, lays a 100 Euro note on the reception counter, and goes to inspect the rooms upstairs in order to choose one.
The hotel proprietor takes the 100 Euro note and runs to pay his debt to the butcher. The butcher takes the 100 Euro note, and runs to pay his debt to the pig grower.
The pig grower takes the 100 Euro note, and runs to pay his debt to the supplier of his feed and fuel…
The supplier of feed and fuel takes the 100 Euro note and runs to pay his debt to the town’s prostitute that in these hard times, gave her “services” on credit.
The prostitute runs to the hotel, and pays off her debt with the 100 Euro note to the hotel proprietor to pay for the rooms that she rented when she brought her clients there.
The hotel proprietor then lays the 100 Euro note back on the counter so that the rich tourist will not suspect anything.
At that moment, the tourist comes down after inspecting the rooms, and takes his 100 Euro note, after saying that he did not like any of the rooms, and leaves town.
No one earned anything. However, the whole town is now without debt, and looks to the future with a lot of optimism
December 28, 2009 at 11:26 am #95790
Long time no hear. How is life in Sunny England. Did you ever manage to sell your house in Gata?
Hope the world is treating you well
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