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Turning point? I’ve stolen the headline.
I watched a Spanish TV programme where a politician announced that Spanish property prices couldn’t fall any further. An economist agreed as did a respected left-leaning journalist.
I have a sneaking suspicion that they are right. The bottom may have been reached. 30% down nationally, 50% down in the expat belt of coastal Andalucia and Valencia.
It doesn’t mean that prices are going to rise tomorrow, but they’re not going to fall any further. It makes sense in difficult times. The speculators will still be dead in the water for many years to come, but we can well do without them. Like investment bankers, their time has passed.
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I’ve said to Fuengi that there is value to be found now, however I don’t think anyone can say that prices ‘are not going to fall any further’ with certainty Rocker. How does anyone know at this stage that Spain’s finances worsen, it has been muted that Spain might exit the Euro and revert to the Peseta, what then for Spanish property prices in relation to other currencies?
No-one has predicted the bottom of the market for the last few years accurately not even that expert who came on here in 2009 saying prices would rise 10% per year then (how wrong was he?), it will come sometime but unless you have a crystal ball it’s all guess work still and why would anyone believe the Politician, an economist and a journalist, 3 people amongst many who are not as bullish? 🙄
Lastly, who is going to buy up all of the unsold stock which the Spanish Gov’t have revised their figures upwards from 680,000 to 900,000 whilst others say it could be between 1 and 2 million, that’s just the new-builds nationally, again there are no true figures? 🙄
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@angie wrote:
I’ve said to Fuengi that there is value to be found now, however I don’t think anyone can say that prices ‘are not going to fall any further’ with certainty Rocker. How does anyone know at this stage that Spain’s finances worsen, it has been muted that Spain might exit the Euro and revert to the Peseta, what then for Spanish property prices in relation to other currencies?
No-one has predicted the bottom of the market for the last few years accurately not even that expert who came on here in 2009 saying prices would rise 10% per year then (how wrong was he?), it will come sometime but unless you have a crystal ball it’s all guess work still and why would anyone believe the Politician, an economist and a journalist, 3 people amongst many who are not as bullish? 🙄
Lastly, who is going to buy up all of the unsold stock which the Spanish Gov’t have revised their figures upwards from 680,000 to 900,000 whilst others say it could be between 1 and 2 million, that’s just the new-builds nationally, again there are no true figures? 🙄
I can’t answer those uncertainties, nor do my personal experiences matter on the wider picture, but if economists with brains the size of countries can’t get it right, I don’t mind having a go.
A house in my street went up for sale at 320K, it was German owned, an elderly couple from Berlin had owned it as a holiday home for more than 20 years. They weren’t bothered about making a profit, they had gotten too old to enjoy their house in Spain and went along with the valuation by a Spanish agent.
It lingered on the agent’s books for ages, at least a couple of years. Walking past the house one day, I noticed a new Se Vende sign and happened to speak to the husband who was on one of his short visits.
He said that he had reduced the price to 220K, but was not going to go any lower, the bottom had been reached. It’s sold now to a French couple with a BMW X5 in the drive.
A meaningless story? Maybe, but I don’t have a brain the size of a country, not even a county, but I walk around with my eyes open. I don’t have a BMW X5 either, but I own a Picasso.
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I don’t think we’ve seen the bottom of home values in Spain. Regarding the overall economy, the problem is that the metrics used to determine that things are improving ignore the reality that it may be improving for only for some of us. In Spain, where so many are unemployed and many more are working but being affected by cuts in services and increasing taxes, the ‘despair index’ is very high and widespread.
So what if 5% of the population is benefiting from a few economic hot-spots? It doesn’t matter if the rest of the country is getting close to revolution.
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@GarySFBCN wrote:
I don’t think we’ve seen the bottom of home values in Spain. Regarding the overall economy, the problem is that the metrics used to determine that things are improving ignore the reality that it may be improving for only for some of us. In Spain, where so many are unemployed and many more are working but being affected by cuts in services and increasing taxes, the ‘despair index’ is very high and widespread.
So what if 5% of the population is benefiting from a few economic hot-spots? It doesn’t matter if the rest of the country is getting close to revolution.
In a country so reliant on the tourist trade, the authorities will try and stifle any bad news that may affect it. There have been many demonstrations in the big cities, but the arrest and injury quotient compared to other countries has been low. I don’t think the people have the appetite for revolution, not after a long and bloody civil war and dictatorship.
Spain’s foreigner friendliness may be a myth if expats truly try to integrate, but most expats are quite happy not to stray beyond the guest status they have. Someone from the home counties in the UK will have similar experiences if they move to Cornwall, and it’s not a big deal.
Despite the civil unrest caused by high unemployment and those despised evictions from repossessed properties, I can detect little anti-foreigner feeling. It’s not in the country’s interests.
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For the bottom of any market to be reached there must be a corresponding turn in the fortunes of that commodity or the economics of the country creating demand. Apples, pears, equities or property it’s all the same.
If that turn in fortune can be detected then prices stop falling, usually stay static and then move north. Sometimes it happens very quickly. Mostly it’s a slow, grinding process. I have seen many recessions come and go in my lifetime. This one is the worst in three or four generations.
I see no sign of any turn, green shoots, call it what you may. I see a worsening economic situation everywhere. So in my view the bottom of Spanish property has some way yet to sink. You can always find examples of stuff selling. That does not mean an overall change in fortunes. It’s just right place right time for an individual
I like anyone else have no idea if or when the property market will turn in Spain. Perhaps it never will. Folks like to speculate but it’s all my eye and Peggy Martin. 🙂
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People are paying what they perceive the property to be worth and those owners whose prices are too high aren’t selling.
If there are millions of properties for sale and only thousands (hundreds or about five…?) buyers then obviously those who want to sell will lower their prices to sell….or stay put.
So therefore I believe that the prices will go down as there aren’t any buyers and everyone wants to sell.
The banks are getting rid of places for peanuts as they have so much on their books. If a bank repo is 20k how does a private seller warrant 80k for their place? The buyer will go for the bank price won’t they, unless they are mad or have rose tinted glasses and only listen to an estate agent?
I, sadly, believe that it’s going to be years and years….probably more than ten, before things even start to look up. There is just too much for sale and too many horror stories for people to rush back to buying in Spain. Some will as they enjoy holidays over there and they’ll blindly believe that retiring there is the same as one long holiday.
We are honestly working out that we’ll pay ten years more mortgage to probably sell our flat for the outstanding mortage then, if we are lucky. Ten years of paying 500 euros per month and ten years of community fees, blah blah, just to make zero. BUT better than paying the full mortgage term of 26 years to then make zero…. I so wish we didn’t but hey ho…. I wish that property prices would jump up again just to get us out of the mess we are left with…. but I just can’t see it happening. The boom was a one off and it won’t be back in Spain.
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When people in the future look back and analyse the “Spanish economic miracle 2013-17” they will ask, how did (nearly) everyone miss the signs?
i) The preceding crisis creates opportunities. Add in the fact that tech knowledge and low cost startups are available to everyone, then many talented Spanish will (and have already) taken advantage, Also…
ii) The Spanish are in an ideal situation to exploit both the English and Spanish-speaking worlds (ie a large part of the planet). Although probably unknown to most posters here, there are Spanish start-ups already growing quickly internationally, some examples being Privalia, Boda-click, Akamon, Twissues, SocialBro, MeTheOne, minube, BrainSins, Digital Legends, Softonic, Zinkia, Fon and Red Karaoke. There will be many many more.
iii) The US market recovering, that will boost the whole world
iv) Even at the low point of the biggest depression since the 30s, the numbers of tourists visiting Spain held up. These numbers will grow further as other economies turn the corner.
v) Again, even despite the woes of the western economies, Spanish exports have grown considerably over the last few years. Spanish businessmen have got the bit between their teeth.
vi) The 160k residency measure, will help to firm up the property market. However, because of the numbers of unsold properties, we won’t see a major increase in house prices – this is a good thing and will enable growth in the economy.
vii) As companies look for low-cost countries to carry out business in Europe, they will return to Spain eg Ford to increase production by 80% in Valencia http://www.intereconomia.com/noticias-negocios/claves/ford-aumentara-un-80-su-produccion-valencia-y-llegara-300000-vehiculos-2012 Other big players will invest more and more in Spain eg Warren Buffet and JP Morgan http://www.thecorner.eu/2012/12/switzerland-spain-top-investing-recommendations-of-morgan-stanley/
As for Spain, Morgan Stanley explained that its “strategy advisers have highlighted Spain as one of the potential surprises in 2013, along other peripheral euro country members.” Spain has been upgraded on economy rankings to the second position–only behind Switzerland–, its best marks since the third quarter of 2009.
viii) Telefonica will be the next Apple, with their plans to expoit big data and mCommerce channels.
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I was extremely surprised to read this article, albeit in the longer paper edition of the newspaper.
http://www.newspapersites.net/newspaper/costa-blanca-news.asp
Weirdly, the paper edition was quite different to the online one and only put British buyers just ahead of the Russians, by about one percent or so. The paper edition also had an article where a Spanish politician at local level (Valencia) believed only the Russians and Chinese could save the housing market, which didn’t make the digital version either.
It’s as if the publishers of the biggest expat newspaper in Spain, the one you have to pay for, are sanitising the online version for their Spanish readers. Or Censors?
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@dartboy wrote:
spainish tourist trade has only held up for a couple of reasons
1 the recession means people cannot afford exotic holidays so go to spain
2 the unrest in other areas has meant people haven’t risked going there and gone to spain instead.Could be although flights to USA and Caribbean are full. Spanish Stats say tourism is up but the method of collecting those stats is suspect, mainly bums on seats 🙄 Locally at least, people in Málaga and Murcia region many are saying it has been a quiet year. Perhaps it has held up in Madrid and Barcelona which caters for stag and hen do’s. If tourism is doing so well why are many of the flagship Paradors closing down for 5 months (plus many more hotels) and some 5 or 7 Paradors closing down for good 😕 Forgive my scepticism but the last 2 years Spain claimed tourism was up but somehow turned into a fall in the new year!
All this talk about the Russians has been repeated for at least 5 years. Yes they are more visible in tourist spots around he world. Friends who went to Crete this summer said it was full of Russians, lots in Florida too…don’t see those countries looking at them as a saviour to the property crash 😕
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When around 100x the amount that buy spanish property at the moment buy will be when the real estate market will pick up not before that. We are talking about ridiculous low amounts of transfers that go through at the moment and trying to extract any trends from that is just silly. Spain sadly picked the worst preriod to have a real estate bubble since it happened when the rest of the world including themselves is trying to ride out a the fallout of a credit bubble.
Hard to predict when this will happen.
Regarding Cyprus which is being mentioned is that it’s such a special place its basicly the only warm place for the old communist countries are allowed to go to without a VISA.
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Flights from Moscow arrive in Alicante on a daily basis. The whole area is bouncing with Russians.
I don’t know what they need in the way of visas, but if they buy a property in Spain at 160K Euros or more, they get automatic residencia.
Their president has set them a good example, he already owns property in Spain.You can’t blame them, they can take off their fur coats on arrival and sunbathe, even in the nude on the nudist beaches should they wish.
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You forgot one thing there Rocker, their President generally sets bad examples within his own country, an obnoxious git who likes to show the world what a strong man he is, however he will fit in with the CDS lifestyle as an ageing lothario, (likes the girlies too) no doubt he will drive his bullet proof Russian car at 3 kmh along the strip in Banus with a full size ingot on a chain around his neck 😆 However he will be good business for the lap dancing clubs. Lets hope his example doesn’t attract too many of the wrong sort of Russians to Spain 🙄
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The arrival of a few thousand Russians at Alicante airport will not offset the fact that next year 45 million Spanish will be paying significantly more tax on even lower incomes. The only “turning point” (or perhaps tipping point) next year will be demonstrations becoming increasingly violent. Even when things do start to improve in the economy it will take several years for the Spanish housing market to pick up the slack.
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@DBMarcos99 wrote:
When people in the future look back and analyse the “Spanish economic miracle 2013-17” they will ask, how did (nearly) everyone miss the signs?
i) The preceding crisis creates opportunities. Add in the fact that tech knowledge and low cost startups are available to everyone, then many talented Spanish will (and have already) taken advantage, Also…
ii) The Spanish are in an ideal situation to exploit both the English and Spanish-speaking worlds (ie a large part of the planet). Although probably unknown to most posters here, there are Spanish start-ups already growing quickly internationally, some examples being Privalia, Boda-click, Akamon, Twissues, SocialBro, MeTheOne, minube, BrainSins, Digital Legends, Softonic, Zinkia, Fon and Red Karaoke. There will be many many more.
iii) The US market recovering, that will boost the whole world
iv) Even at the low point of the biggest depression since the 30s, the numbers of tourists visiting Spain held up. These numbers will grow further as other economies turn the corner.
v) Again, even despite the woes of the western economies, Spanish exports have grown considerably over the last few years. Spanish businessmen have got the bit between their teeth.
vi) The 160k residency measure, will help to firm up the property market. However, because of the numbers of unsold properties, we won’t see a major increase in house prices – this is a good thing and will enable growth in the economy.
vii) As companies look for low-cost countries to carry out business in Europe, they will return to Spain eg Ford to increase production by 80% in Valencia http://www.intereconomia.com/noticias-negocios/claves/ford-aumentara-un-80-su-produccion-valencia-y-llegara-300000-vehiculos-2012 Other big players will invest more and more in Spain eg Warren Buffet and JP Morgan http://www.thecorner.eu/2012/12/switzerland-spain-top-investing-recommendations-of-morgan-stanley/
As for Spain, Morgan Stanley explained that its “strategy advisers have highlighted Spain as one of the potential surprises in 2013, along other peripheral euro country members.” Spain has been upgraded on economy rankings to the second position–only behind Switzerland–, its best marks since the third quarter of 2009.
viii) Telefonica will be the next Apple, with their plans to expoit big data and mCommerce channels.
Top 5 joke for 2012.
Congratulations.
I hope it was a joke.
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@flosmichael wrote:
@DBMarcos99 wrote:
When people in the future look back and analyse the “Spanish economic miracle 2013-17” they will ask, how did (nearly) everyone miss the signs?
i) The preceding crisis creates opportunities. Add in the fact that tech knowledge and low cost startups are available to everyone, then many talented Spanish will (and have already) taken advantage, Also…
ii) The Spanish are in an ideal situation to exploit both the English and Spanish-speaking worlds (ie a large part of the planet). Although probably unknown to most posters here, there are Spanish start-ups already growing quickly internationally, some examples being Privalia, Boda-click, Akamon, Twissues, SocialBro, MeTheOne, minube, BrainSins, Digital Legends, Softonic, Zinkia, Fon and Red Karaoke. There will be many many more.
iii) The US market recovering, that will boost the whole world
iv) Even at the low point of the biggest depression since the 30s, the numbers of tourists visiting Spain held up. These numbers will grow further as other economies turn the corner.
v) Again, even despite the woes of the western economies, Spanish exports have grown considerably over the last few years. Spanish businessmen have got the bit between their teeth.
vi) The 160k residency measure, will help to firm up the property market. However, because of the numbers of unsold properties, we won’t see a major increase in house prices – this is a good thing and will enable growth in the economy.
vii) As companies look for low-cost countries to carry out business in Europe, they will return to Spain eg Ford to increase production by 80% in Valencia http://www.intereconomia.com/noticias-negocios/claves/ford-aumentara-un-80-su-produccion-valencia-y-llegara-300000-vehiculos-2012 Other big players will invest more and more in Spain eg Warren Buffet and JP Morgan http://www.thecorner.eu/2012/12/switzerland-spain-top-investing-recommendations-of-morgan-stanley/
As for Spain, Morgan Stanley explained that its “strategy advisers have highlighted Spain as one of the potential surprises in 2013, along other peripheral euro country members.” Spain has been upgraded on economy rankings to the second position–only behind Switzerland–, its best marks since the third quarter of 2009.
viii) Telefonica will be the next Apple, with their plans to expoit big data and mCommerce channels.
Top 5 joke for 2012.
Congratulations.
I hope it was a joke.
Not at all – I notice you don’t argue with individual points and links provided.
There are other signs that back up this analysis.
For instance when I state that companies will start to return to Spain (now it’s so competitive) and create jobs again, it’s a point made here:
http://brightspain.com/spain-the-tiger-economy-of-europe/That same Wednesday, French automaker Renault announced that is looking to hire 1,300 workers for its four plants in Spain following a new deal with local unions. This bit of news highlights the relative strength of our country’s automobile sector compared to those of other European economies. Furthermore, it underscores our growing competitive advantage within the European region.
And when I state that the Spanish can exploit both the Spanish and English speaking markets, nothing illustrates the point better than Spanish IT firms doing well in Silicon Valley:
http://www.thecorner.eu/2012/12/spanish-entrepreneurs-flourish-in-silicon-valley/AlienVault, though, is the greatest story of Spanish success in Silicon Valley. Over the last 12 months the company raised $30 million in venture capital money from Kleiner Perkins Caufield & Byers, among others, over two rounds of funding. It was the most ever raised by a Spanish tech startup and the first time Kleiner Perkins had invested in a firm founded in Spain. AlienVault’s headcount and revenues have roughly doubled in the last year.
Of course the argument is that talent is attracted away from spain to these new markets. But overall it leads to more business for all:
So, is this trend luring innovation away from Spain? Argente, a serial entrepreneur himself who has lived in Canada, Hong Kong, and now the US, is adamant that companies need to thrive in a big market rather than aim for small or medium size within Spain. Besides, he says, multinationals can still maintain the design team and commercial presence in Spain.
“In the early years in Spain,” recalls Alienvault’s Casal, “our biggest contract was for $250k annually; Arcsight, the American leader, had an $80mn government contract. Our global presence allows us to aspire to this scale.” -
😉 Flosmichael.
Loads of well educated Spaniards are emigrating too, lots going to UK and taking all that expertise with them 🙄
Back to Putin, good example Rocker says 😆
Putin owns 20 villas and palaces, 4 grand yachts, 58 aircraft one with a $75,000 toilet, funds a $2.5 billion a year lifestyle etc etc, and his villa in La Zagaleta is costing $15 million dollars and comes with a huge bunker, he will be neighbours with various celebrities and also with many other renowned criminals who hide up there.
Now, I don’t say this but many others do, all of the above has been funded with State Funds.
Hm, just the sort of good example (and what Spain needs badly) to set to other Russians thinking of going to Spain 😆
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@DBMarcos99 wrote:
Top 5 joke for 2012.
Congratulations.
I hope it was a joke.
OK:
1) unemployment in Spain will increase in 2013. People will feel and be poorer.
2) austerity will tighten in UK, France, Germany, Netherlads, etc. People will be less inclined to spend in their trips abroad.
3) Berlusconi will come back to power in Italy and maybe Italy will take steps towards Euro exit.
4) Nobody knows about USA. Obama might take everybody in the abyss in the hope that the Republicans will be finish for good.
Why would any miracle start in 2013??
OK, maybe Spain will enter an economic boom in the future but not in 2013.
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Spain is a massive country, five times the size of the UK, with a low population ratio. It needs more people to compete, and while the crowded European countries, like Germany and the UK are trying to reduce immigration, Spain welcomes it.
Of course they want to right kind of immigrant, someone useful to their new country, but how do you judge such usefulness? They wouldn’t want foreigners stealing their jobs or building businesses to destroy their own, but they’re happy with pensioners who spend their pensions and don’t live that long.
Their size along would allow them to double the meagre population of some 45 million without ill effect and they’ve been greatly encouraged by the million or so British immigrants who are mostly pensioners with spending power. But it seems the British supply has been exhausted so they are now turning to other countries like Russia and China.
The last part is hurtful to us Brits who already live in Spain – how can they treat those pesky people form the Steppes just like us? We’re better than them are we not? They’re all gangsters, are they not?
A Spaniard would be better qualified to answer that one, not me.
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@Rocker wrote:
S
The last part is hurtful to us Brits who already live in Spain – how can they treat those pesky people form the Steppes just like us? We’re better than them are we not? They’re all gangsters, are they not?No not all. just the oligarchs the people in power and ‘business’ who have all the money.
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@katy wrote:
DBmarcos I wish I had a euro for everytime you link that dubious corner website on the fora 😆 😆 😆
I wish I had a penny for every snipe from you that didn’t give any supporting links, facts or genuine evidence. Very noticeable that you focus on one link I gave (and not the others) and also fail to produce anything that disproves what that article states. – Shall we take it that the whole article is correct and reflects the reality, since you fail dismally to disprove anything the writer says? 😆 btw – the writer I understand is a freelance writer and economist, Andrew Pollen, from the US, so even your xenophobic attitude (“I don’t trust Spanish writers”) is inappropriate.
Here’s the link again Katy. Care to show which word, sentence, paragraph or statement is incorrect? No? Didin’t think so… 😆
http://www.thecorner.eu/2012/12/spanish-entrepreneurs-flourish-in-silicon-valley/
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I rarely click on your mates links! Never said anything wasn’t true…just pointless clutching at straws…every country has some business contracts happening, just plain silly.
You keep mentioning tourism is up…how do you account for thishttp://www.diariosur.es/20121210/local/turismo/aeropuerto-malaga-pierde-pasajeros-201212101355.html
They couldn’t all have been travelling by AVE as it’s passengers are down too 🙄
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Never said anything wasn’t true.
Thank you Katy.
And yes, there will be bad news even when the economy turns the corner. Just as some people do well in hard times.
Edit: the link you give is about November traffic. I’m surprised there is much traffic at all at this time of year, and no surprise that figures are down for this month as a consequence of the rain and floods – remember those? But if you believe those figures are valid, are you also willing to believe the total figures for the year? -
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@DBMarcos99 wrote:
Never said anything wasn’t true.
Thank you Katy.
And yes, there will be bad news even when the economy turns the corner. Just as some people do well in hard times.
Edit: the link you give is about November traffic. I’m surprised there is much traffic at all at this time of year, and no surprise that figures are down for this month as a consequence of the rain and floods – remember those? But if you believe those figures are valid, are you also willing to believe the total figures for the year?Mainly November traffc but note the last para
En lo que va de año, cabe destacar que la terminal malagueña superó los doce millones de pasajeros, pese a lo que supone un 1,8% menos que en los once primeros meses de 2011.
Briefly Málaga had 1,8% less passengers for the first 11 months of the year.
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@katy wrote:
@DBMarcos99 wrote:
Never said anything wasn’t true.
Thank you Katy.
And yes, there will be bad news even when the economy turns the corner. Just as some people do well in hard times.
Edit: the link you give is about November traffic. I’m surprised there is much traffic at all at this time of year, and no surprise that figures are down for this month as a consequence of the rain and floods – remember those? But if you believe those figures are valid, are you also willing to believe the total figures for the year?Mainly November traffc but note the last para
En lo que va de año, cabe destacar que la terminal malagueña superó los doce millones de pasajeros, pese a lo que supone un 1,8% menos que en los once primeros meses de 2011.
Briefly Málaga had 1,8% less passengers for the first 11 months of the year.
So if we only talk about Malaga airport, it allows you to disbelieve tourism figures for the whole of the country?
And from the same publication you prefer, it seems that Malaga port (both in terms of goods and of passengers) had a very good start to the year. Traffic increases by 31%:
http://www.diariosur.es/20120425/local/malaga/trafico-puerto-malaga-incrementa-201204251902.html
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@shakeel wrote:
@Rocker. We have our fair share of gangster.
” We’re better than them are we not?”
As I child I was taught that we should not be our own judges. The others should judge us.
I totally agree, but others don’t and that’s why we’ve had centuries of wars.
I’ve often wondered what Spaniards truly think of the foreigners in their country, and I don’t suppose it’s all that different to how we regard foreigners in the UK.
Where Spain differs is in their need to expand their population, they have a falling birth rate and high emigration, more recently for economic reasons, or maybe that’s how it has always been.
They badly need immigrants with money to gobble up the empty houses and enrich the economy, and that sort of limits the controls they can impose on immigration – they probably prefer Northern Europeans to Eastern ones, but there aren’t enough Northern ones to satisfy Spain’s needs – so they send delegations to St Petersburg and Shanghai.
If we take the mighty US as an example, the example, then mass immigration to an empty country will enrich that country and produce a multi-cultured rich one. They will assimilate over time and salute their new flag.
I wouldn’t like to guess at the numbers required, but Russia and China have millions of people to spare, and you can exchange Roubles and the Yuan into Euros just as easily as Sterling.
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Rocker said So if we only talk about Malaga airport, it allows you to disbelieve tourism figures for the whole of the country?
Jeezuz Rocker, did you really read it…do I need to knock it in with a hammer 🙄destacando el de Madrid, con un descenso de 13,3 puntos, o el de Barcelona, con una bajada del 7,6%.
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@katy wrote:
Rocker said So if we only talk about Malaga airport, it allows you to disbelieve tourism figures for the whole of the country?
Jeezuz Rocker, did you really read it…do I need to knock it in with a hammer 🙄destacando el de Madrid, con un descenso de 13,3 puntos, o el de Barcelona, con una bajada del 7,6%.
Do you even know who you’re talking to (still less that the article is only talking about the off peak month of November, a month that had heavier than normal rain and floods this year) ????
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@katy wrote:
Rocker said So if we only talk about Malaga airport, it allows you to disbelieve tourism figures for the whole of the country?
Jeezuz Rocker, did you really read it…do I need to knock it in with a hammer 🙄destacando el de Madrid, con un descenso de 13,3 puntos, o el de Barcelona, con una bajada del 7,6%.
You got me mixed up with someone else, Katy.
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Probably Marcos then, whoever saidd it was wrong. Check AENA figures for the year month by month. Some winners but mainly losers. Overall passenger figures are down!
Another article here
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I’m not one for posting lots of links, especially irrelevant ones, but when an important article comes along, it may need highlighting.
When discussing whether Spain has reached a turning point, perhaps we should consider the EU as a whole. In my view the EU, not the Eurozone, is the most important factor for all Europeans, and whether we like it or not, that’s what we are.
We’ve even won the Nobel peace prize, haven’t we?
Here’s the link, even the supposedly anti-Europe boy from Eton appears to have seen the light:
It certainly put a smile on my face this morning.
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@Rocker wrote:
I’m not one for posting lots of links, especially irrelevant ones, but when an important article comes along, it may need highlighting.
When discussing whether Spain has reached a turning point, perhaps we should consider the EU as a whole. In my view the EU, not the Eurozone, is the most important factor for all Europeans, and whether we like it or not, that’s what we are.
We’ve even won the Nobel peace prize, haven’t we?
Here’s the link, even the supposedly anti-Europe boy from Eton appears to have seen the light:
It certainly put a smile on my face this morning.
“Risk being like Norway?”
Won’t that appeal to many? Isn’t their economy doing well? Ok, so they’ve used their oil revenues well, with a small population. But many in the UK, facing the dreaded triple dip, may be envious of their prospects?
Edit: I see many in the comments make that point. I sometimes wonder if Cameron is doing his best to lose the next election! -
@DBMarcos99 wrote:
@Rocker wrote:
I’m not one for posting lots of links, especially irrelevant ones, but when an important article comes along, it may need highlighting.
When discussing whether Spain has reached a turning point, perhaps we should consider the EU as a whole. In my view the EU, not the Eurozone, is the most important factor for all Europeans, and whether we like it or not, that’s what we are.
We’ve even won the Nobel peace prize, haven’t we?
Here’s the link, even the supposedly anti-Europe boy from Eton appears to have seen the light:
It certainly put a smile on my face this morning.
“Risk being like Norway?”
Won’t that appeal to many? Isn’t their economy doing well? Ok, so they’ve used their oil revenues well, with a small population. But many in the UK, facing the dreaded triple dip, may be envious of their prospects?
Edit: I see many in the comments make that point. I sometimes wonder if Cameron is doing his best to lose the next election!No he’s just booking his place on the EU gravy train for when he does lose it
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Could this be the turning point?
http://www.euroweeklynews.es/news/costa-blanca-south/item/111677-sold-torrevieja-hot-spot-of-spain
It would be a funny place to find it.
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@katy wrote:
That article should be in jokes for the weekend 😆 😆
Do repossessions show up as a transactions? I guess so as the deeds have to go to the bank.
In which case it wouldn’t surprise me if we saw a huge explosion in “sales” when the bank bad starts taking on the rest of the property nobody wants
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Rocker et al, that is hilarious, surely they’re not serious about Torrevieja? 😆
IMO it is one the most overbuilt areas on the Costas and mainly of 1000’s of look-a-like 2-3 bed modern white houses with yellow or blue paint I believe, but strangely many of them have this turret like thing going on as a feature. Plus, tumbleweed blowing down them thar roads, darnnit, at which point the cowboy spits into a pan by the campfire with a ‘pinggggggg’ 😆
Maybe the turning point is a reference to bulldozing them first 😉
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On this bank site alone (CAM) for Torrevieja I counted 13 pages x 10 properties per page, all repossessions.
No doubt other banks have a similar amount listed. Torrvieja has a high crime problem so I am informed by locals as well as being an ugly concrete jungle. That posted ‘advertorial’ by Rocker looks like pure balderdash to me.
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I suppose it could be that Christmas is looming, but just recently there have been major turning points that I find hard to believe.
Cameron, a Conservative British Prime Minister, is urging the people of the UK to stay in the EU.
Cameron is urging parliament to allow Church marriages between gay people. Backed by Boris, no less.
Compared to those two momentous events, the fact that they’re building houses again in Torrevieja seems insignificant, or is it just another sign that we have reached the turning point?
And Nigel Farage has a German wife.
(Is an active member reaching for the Sherry bottle?)
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Do the banks pay the community fees and also IBI for all the repos? I know that they pay the community fees in our block but it’s only 22 euros per month. What about a bank which has hundreds on an urbanisation where the community fees are quite high.
And the IBI, who is responsible for it, I guess the banks are aren’t they?
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An interesting article here on how entrepreneurs and small businesses in Madrid are meeting the economic situation head-on, and also changing local government behaviour!
http://www.monocle.com/magazine/issues/59/starting-again/
“Entrepreneurs hold the key and the Madrid city council will therefore do all it can to advocate their central role in both society and on the political agenda,” she says.Many of these entrepreneurs have flocked to the hospitality sector. Antonio Santiago, 30, opened his bar and restaurant Circo de las Tapas two years ago. With a background in advertising, he is new to the industry but judging by the constant crowds here, his risk seems to have paid off. Antonio inspected 60 venues before settling on the run-down street and since opening has witnessed the area flourish, with at least five similar new businesses opening. “There has been an explosion of creativity from young Spanish people since the crisis and small theatre spaces, modern restaurants and clothing stores are regenerating entire neighbourhoods,” he says.
It’s funny you know, after visiting Madrid this year and last, I remarked on how vibrant and busy a lot of shops, bars and restaurants seemed. Not many back in the UK believed me! 😉
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A friend of mine Bruno, has just opened up a bar in Madrid (he has various business ventures). If you’re in town soon, pop in the Cunning Fox. Looks an entertaining place! https://www.facebook.com/TheCunningFoxES
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@angie wrote:
Totally agree katy, (you’d think the drum needed replacing) 😆 😆 😆
Not surprising that the two least likely to know about the subject snipe from the sides.. 😆
But as I say I was there a few weeks back. Bars, shops, restaurants full as ever, although I admit I was only there Thursday to Monday, and obviously just in my normal haunts….I can believe that in non-central areas things may be worse. But the plane was totally occupied, not bad for an October flight!
Maybe if Chopera is ever in the Tribunal/Malasana area he can pop into the Triskel bar and verify it’s packed (I’m sure they didn’t fill it with customers just because I was in town 😆 ) They always were guaranteed fairly busy weekends with the football, rugby and cricket on the screens. But now they host business meetings, comedy clubs, music jams during the week too. -
Don’t need to snipe from the sides Mark Nessfield, just tell you straight how it really is 😆
This will cheer you up then:
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/financialcr … -OECD.html
🙄 😮 😯 😉
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@angie wrote:
Don’t need to snipe from the sides Mark Nessfield, just tell you straight how it really is 😆
This will cheer you up then:
🙄 😮 😯 😉
Thanks for that November link – but things are already starting to pick up:
Spain’s Recession less severe than expected [ Dec 10 ]
http://www.hispanicbusiness.com/news/newsbyid.asp?idx=303214Spain’s recession will be less severe this year than had been expected, Economy Minister Luis de Guindos said Monday, estimating that the economy would contract by 1.3 or 1.4 percent.
The government had earlier said it expected a contraction of 1.5 percent.Seriously, there is no doubt there are still tough times ahead, and it will be a long while before many places see the resurgent economy we are now seeing in Madrid, some Basque cities and even some tourist areas, But recovery will come, part of it driven by increasing export success and high tourist figures. The tide has changed. Let’s hope it can reach all areas.
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So Marcos 0.1% less estimated contraction by a finance minister marks a turning point for you does it? Rejoice the worst is over. 😆 You would make a hopeless investor/fund manager believing nonsense such as that.
The OECD have it right.
The OECD is forecasting Spain’s gross domestic product will shrink 1.3pc in 2012 and decline by another 1.4pc in 2013 before a weak pickup of 0.5pc in 2014. -
@logan wrote:
So Marcos 0.1% less estimated contraction by a finance minister marks a turning point for you does it? Rejoice the worst is over. 😆
err did you fail to read my whole quote? Don’t ever get a job as editor or proof reader 😆
Seriously, there is no doubt there are still tough times ahead, and it will be a long while before many places see the resurgent economy we are now seeing in Madrid, some Basque cities and even some tourist areas, But recovery will come, part of it driven by increasing export success and high tourist figures. The tide has changed. Let’s hope it can reach all areas.
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The turning point for Spain will be closely linked to the turning point for the EU as a whole, the UK included. Our economies are too closely linked for it to happen any other way.
Excessive debt is the problem currently being worked on, whether in London, Frankfurt or Sevilla.
Economists will be scratching their heads as usual when recovery starts, they always get it wrong – they all got it wrong in 2008, 1990 and all the way back to the thirties and before.
They get it wrong because people are fickle, they don’t study graphs and prefer football to finance. So an expat newspaper reports that a city on the Spanish coast has started building again. Maybe they’re building for the Russians or Chinese, but I suspect it is still mostly for the Brits – they love the place, they’re already living there in their tens of thousands.
Maybe they like tumbleweed.
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That must be strong stuff you take Mark Nessfield if you don’t know that November was only last month, are you disagreeing with the OECD, are you really more knowledgeable than them, wow? 😆
BTW Spanish unemployment is predicted to rise from 25.1% to 26.9% next year, now I make that around another 846,000 sitting around in those bars in Madrid so should really be full then 😆 😆
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All the economic data applicable to Europe I read shows decline. PMI index, unemployment rates, industrial output, consumer confidence. These are real figures not speculation or political rhetoric. The Eurozone is in a serious economic recession with no sign when it will end. The Spanish property market is in an even worse state, almost total collapse with no value whatever to be gained from it except a place to live.
English language newspapers on the Spanish coasts have a vested interest in talking up the market to gain advertisers. They have no interest in telling the truth. Your average Brit reads this stuff and believes it might be a good time to buy. That’s the point, it’s dishonest.
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@angie wrote:
That must be strong stuff you take Mark Nessfield if you don’t know that November was only last month, are you disagreeing with the OECD, are you really more knowledgeable than them, wow? 😆
BTW Spanish unemployment is predicted to rise from 25.1% to 26.9% next year, now I make that around another 846,000 sitting around in those bars in Madrid so should really be full then 😆 😆
Angie – we’ve had a couple of years’ selective quotes from you Katy and a couple of others…
You’ve all been predicting Spain’s collapse (and taking glee from it), the system collapsing etc. Any news item that contradicts this image you have of Spain is met with snipes and emoticons.
I’m afraid for those of you who take pleasure in bad news regarding Spain, that the tide is turning. Yes, there is a lot of pain ahead, not everywhere will see the same recovery speed. But the fact is Spain is increasing exports, continuing to attract large numbers of tourists and investors, and will see things improve. The people are motivated, in a way that unfortunately many in the UK are not (and I don’t take any pleasure from that, as it impacts on my family and friends as well as me).
And in case you think there are no jobs in Spain, here are just a few of the places hiring in the IT startup sector:
http://indisys-pre.indisys.es/en/why-indisys/team — hiring Computer Engineers, Marketing and Demand Generation Experts and many others
http://jobs.wuaki.tv/ — hiring Customer Support Agents, Android developers, Product Managers and many more
http://www.robotmedia.net/were-hiring/ Mac and Ruby developers
http://www.tecnoempleo.es/fon-technology-s-l/re-166323 Linux C developers, systems developers, Business Intelligence Consultants and many more
Even Idealista are doing their bit – they’re looking for 24 (java developers, telesales, drupal developers etc) http://www.idealista.com/news/archivo/2012/12/14/0554375-en-idealista-com-buscamos-24-profesionales-para-nuestras-oficinas-de-madrid-y-barcelona
Don’t believe all you read in Olive Press! -
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Mark Nessfield, what don’t you understand about the serious predicament that Spain is in, that’s property, unemployment, Banks, Corporates, homelessness, corruption, and all the rest? 🙄
You are drip fed from others this supply of start-ups in Spain on your twitter page which you then trot out on this forum under an alias DBMarcos99 and also on British Expats forums as steviedeluxe etc. Now there’s nothing wrong with small business, nor with start-ups but it all pales compared to the serious nature above.
You denigrate your own place of residence London, whose property market is doing considerably better than Madrid’s where your heart is, and you also constantly put down the UK but you don’t like it when people tell the truth about the enormity of Spanish problems, you cannot even decide which City or region in Spain you want to live. Anyone can see that London bars and restaurants, as those in Bath and many British Cities are also packed.
If you were paid each time you spout your start-up news on almost any topic or thread, you’d be rich by now and able to realise your dream of moving to Madrid or here, there, or anywhere in Spain, or maybe buy up North in the UK you say, or stay in London, I don’t think you know what you really want do you? 🙄
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marcos, why do you keep putting those job links on…everyone knows a lot of them don’t exist. If they are do they are so specialist that the movers and shakers can get better money elswhere!
As for an upturn, Europe won’t turn around until the USA starts booming. It has always been so.
As for the Spanish upturn…latest figures from Ine state that the last quarters house price falls were the worst ever!! Swinging Madrid had one of he biggest falls. Madrid down 17.9% Asturias (17,5%) y Cataluña (17,4%) .
http://www.diariosur.es/rc/20121214/economia/precio-vivienda-tercer-trimestre-201212140922.html
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@logan wrote:
All the economic data applicable to Europe I read shows decline. PMI index, unemployment rates, industrial output, consumer confidence. These are real figures not speculation or political rhetoric. The Eurozone is in a serious economic recession with no sign when it will end. The Spanish property market is in an even worse state, almost total collapse with no value whatever to be gained from it except a place to live.
English language newspapers on the Spanish coasts have a vested interest in talking up the market to gain advertisers. They have no interest in telling the truth. Your average Brit reads this stuff and believes it might be a good time to buy. That’s the point, it’s dishonest.
The same figures you’re relying on now, and a ton more, were available to the top economists in the world in September 2008. And they all got it wrong.
The world isn’t about financial speculation, it’s about people. And it’s about living. You may well be right about investing in the Spanish property market, and very few people, me included, would consider such a punt at this time.
But the article I read, in the paper version, stated that 6,000 houses would be built in that Spanish city in the next year. As we all know, Spanish people are not buying houses at this time, but foreigners are still arriving in their thousands to do just that.
Maybe, just maybe, that could be the start of a housing market recovery in Spain. I know that the experts with their charts and internet data will disagree, but they didn’t see Lehman’s coming either.
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@angie wrote:
Mark Nessfield, what don’t you understand about the serious predicament that Spain is in, that’s property, unemployment, Banks, Corporates, homelessness, corruption, and all the rest? 🙄
You are drip fed from others this supply of start-ups in Spain on your twitter page which you then trot out on this forum under an alias DBMarcos99 and also on British Expats forums as steviedeluxe etc. Now there’s nothing wrong with small business, nor with start-ups but it all pales compared to the serious nature above.
You denigrate your own place of residence London, whose property market is doing considerably better than Madrid’s where your heart is, and you also constantly put down the UK but you don’t like it when people tell the truth about the enormity of Spanish problems, you cannot even decide which City or region in Spain you want to live. Anyone can see that London bars and restaurants, as those in Bath and many British Cities are also packed.
If you were paid each time you spout your start-up news on almost any topic or thread, you’d be rich by now and able to realise your dream of moving to Madrid or here, there, or anywhere in Spain, or maybe buy up North in the UK you say, or stay in London, I don’t think you know what you really want do you? 🙄
dear Angie, it’s obvious when you get upset by the truth, you revert to personal attacks. Btw i’d give far more credence to Rocker, he lives in the country and sees the potential. He’s not bolted to London or France and kicking ourselves for passing up a superior lifestyle!
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I don’t want to start or continue a war, even a friendly one, but I would like to make the point that Spain isn’t for everyone. Lots of my friends have gone home when they realised the truth, and it seems to apply to some posters on this forum too.
I’ve fought a war with Spanish bureaucracy over the years, at times it nearly sent me home, I found the corruption extremely distasteful until a Spanish business partner put me right.
But I’m going to short-cut my post since Christmas is approaching at a frightening pace. This thread seems to be dominated by links, and I’ve posted a few myself. Just one more then, the one that explains it all:
http://www.eltiempo.es/alicante.html
It has just started raining!
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@katy wrote:
marcos, why do you keep putting those job links on…everyone knows a lot of them don’t exist. If they are do they are so specialist that the movers and shakers can get better money elswhere!
Katy – are you really this stupid in real life?
Let’s look at the first couple of links I put on.
First one – Indisys. Just had a 5 million investment from Intel (their first in a Spanish company). Their clients include large corporate banks, telecommunications and retail companies, and the company already has customers based in Europe, Latin America and the United States. You think they don’t need IT staff to develop and support their systems???? http://thenextweb.com/insider/2012/11/28/indisys-lands-5-million-help-expand-its-intelligent-customer-service-platform/
Second one – Wuaki – It’s a video-on-demand company (recently bought up by the Japanese giants Rakuten) that is looking to have half a million customers by the year end. And you Katy, think they don’t really need staff and the jobs don’t exist??? 😆 http://thenextweb.com/insider/2012/06/13/japanese-e-commerce-giant-rakuten-buys-spanish-video-on-demand-firm-wuaki-tv/
I realise you’re probably totally ignorant of the IT and web industry (which is fine, we all have our weak areas) but the job links I posted are totally consistent with what a company with a large web presence needs to keep moving forward. I once worked on contract for a professional social network based near Oxford, who had around 65,000 members on their web, and they ran a staff of nearly 50 people! (not all IT, some were customer insight, sales, support, editorial etc)
So please Katy, don’t shout down something which is obviously true. It destroys any credibility you may have left. -
Speaking of jobs, if anyone knows a bi-lingual speaker who’s a Barcelona fan ,get them to look at this role. Involves sending tweets for the most part! 35-45k
http://jobs.brandrepublic.com/job/512208/social-media-reporter/
You need to keep the community in touch with the player during the playing season, as well as off season, with both on and off the pitch related content. You should have proven skills in social media and community management and development or solid skills in content and social journalism. Since you need to engage credibly with this sporting community, an excellent knowledge of football and a clear passion for the sport will be a distinct advantage. You must be bilingual with excellent writing and grammar in both Spanish and English and be happy to travel every week – usually to away games within Europe but sometimes further afield.
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Mark Nessfield, you’re daft, every topic you love to hijack with your tweeters’ bits of news, on different sites too with your different names, you’re a career tweeter, would you like me to list all of them or will you then say you’re being stalked ? (as if 😆 )
You don’t answer why you keep having a pop at your own country and City but don’t like it when others tell the truth about Spain, when are you going to man up and use your real name on forums as well as ‘physically’ live in Spain like you bang on about? Methinks you’re the one who’s upset and, confused 😆 😆 😆
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@angie wrote:
Mark Nessfield, you’re daft, every topic you love to hijack with your tweeters’ bits of news, on different sites too with your different names, you’re a career tweeter, would you like me to list all of them or will you then say you’re being stalked ? (as if 😆 )
You don’t answer why you keep having a pop at your own country and City but don’t like it when others tell the truth about Spain, when are you going to man up and use your real name on forums as well as ‘physically’ live in Spain like you bang on about? Methinks you’re the one who’s upset and, confused 😆 😆 😆
Poor Angie, you really are quite daft aren’t you?
If people want to follow a twitter name of MigginPies, or any other, they can. Normally people’s names are out in the open.
Unlike yours Angie. Are you going to post your full name here? You seem to think it’s necessary for other posters! How about you stop being a hypocrite? -
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Normally people’s names are out in the open.
Unlike yours Angie. Are you going to post your full name here? You seem to think it’s necessary for other posters! How about you stop being a hypocrite?btw, always good to see Angie and Katy together. What lies (yes lies = false accusations) do they have lined up for me next?
Between them they have
Accused me of never having worked as an English teacher in Madrid – I have.
Accused me of “being mates” with the journalists on TheCorner website. So far as I know I’ve never met nor exchanged emails with any of them.
Accused me of being an estate agent – I wouldn’t know the first thing about this job
Accused me of being paid to tweet. If only…
Accused me of only printing things critical of the UK (I have on many occasions praised the parks, the organisations qualities as per big sporting events, M&S, the breakfasts and live music pubs, amongst others)How about an apology for the LIES, Angie and Katy (aka Jacky2) ??? 😆 (I don’t expect them to retract their lies, but I can repeat them so others know how deceitful they are)
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@angie wrote:
He has OCD and he’s been exposed, I see how he antagonises others on other sites, might find out some more about him, wouldn’t take very long, he’s an interesting subject though 😆 😉
Keep stalking! You may find others return the favour.
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Ok Mark Nessfield you wish you know more about me, this can be arranged. Family in Sicily still speak Eastern Nonmetafonetica and Messinese, and the extended family of U.S. migrants, and Sicilian members visit me in London or wherever I’d like to meet them, can arrange for you to join us if you wish, they will be interested in you too. Occasionally meet in Spain 😛 Capisce?
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@angie wrote:
Ok Mark Nessfield you wish you know more about me, this can be arranged. Family in Sicily still speak Eastern Nonmetafonetica and Messinese, and the extended family of U.S. migrants, and Sicilian members visit me in London or wherever I’d like to meet them, can arrange for you to join us if you wish, they will be interested in you too. Occasionally meet in Spain 😛 Capisce?
I hope that’s a threat. Be quite enough to get the law involved.
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Meanwhile, back on planet earth.
I read this morning, or saw it on the Spanish news, that Spanish property prices have fallen for 40 consecutive quarters, i.e. for the past 10 years. The news came from a proper source. Did they really start falling in 2002? And have fallen ever since?
Still, ever the optimist, I believe even those figures support my assertion that the turning point may have been reached. I’ve heard many sensible people say recently, ‘The prices surely can’t fall any further!’
Thinking back to the two previous recessions I have experienced, albeit not on the scale of the current one, the recovery seemed to surprise most people, me included, when it happened. In 1990 I had negative equity on a house in the UK; two years later, out of the blue, it sold at a small profit.
An hour ago I watched a local estate agent put a Se Vende sign up on a nearby house. I’m dying to find out the price, but it’s not yet on their website.
Green shoots? In the winter? I’ve just picked some oranges from my garden, they were green last week.
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@angie wrote:
Ok Mark Nessfield you wish you know more about me, this can be arranged. Family in Sicily still speak Eastern Nonmetafonetica and Messinese, and the extended family of U.S. migrants, and Sicilian members visit me in London or wherever I’d like to meet them, can arrange for you to join us if you wish, they will be interested in you too. Occasionally meet in Spain 😛 Capisce?
I tell you what – you’ve just put off a whole lot of people from ever considering buying property in Italy. Still, it’s not as if you’re an estate agent for properties in Italy, are you? 😆
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You are what’s known as a ‘babbu’ Nessfield, pazzo too! You asked and I’ve offered you a way to find out more about me, and now it’s had an airing 🙄 Whereas you leave a trail everywhere you go, hence babbu 😆
Italy and Sicily do not have the property problems of Spain and people are respected if they don’t become mortadellas to society 😆 Methinks you don’t know a lot 😆
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The bigger the bubble the bigger the burst.
Even in Sweden we have been hit by a wave of warnings of layoffs this month “6000 more than last year” mainly in the industry sector which I have been expecting for a long time since most of it has earlier been exported to all over the world.
If you really want to see signs of the first turn around one historically just has to watch air carrier services. It’s often a very good sign when companies starts using it for delivery of packages instead of slower transportation. In times like these people are more prone to wait longer for stuff.
The turn around for the housing crash will come much later then that.
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The EU summit this week ended in stalemate with no progress on further plans for reform. No surprise there then. Angela Merkle darkened the mood a little, dismissing claims that the worst was over for the Eurozone and stressing that the bloc faced two further years of painful reforms, slow growth and high unemployment.
I could not agree more. In fact committing to a number is very unwise for a politician with the gravitas of ‘Mutti’. I believe the number is closer to five before any turning point is reached. That’s how long EU banks will take to recapitalise and slowly begin to lend to business again. Mortgages are a long way off particularly in Spain.
Yet I suppose some on the forum and elsewhere will continue to claim au contraire for their own private reasons. Such is life. 🙁 It pointless engaging in rational arguments with such people because they simply have an personal agenda instead of a balanced open approach to global economics.
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Even in Sweden we have been hit by a wave of warnings of layoffs this month “6000 more than last year” mainly in the industry sector which I have been expecting for a long time since most of it has earlier been exported to all over the world.
Well, I have an interesting turnabout here to report, which makes me think that there may be hope, employment-wise.
Here in California, our Governor, Jerry Brown, created a new law to ‘reform’ pensions. The State pensions here were out of control. Brown is bringing them back to fiscal solvency. But in doing so, because of the way the reform law was structured, it is being implemented in phases. Long story short, where I work we are seeing 1,000 people retire before December 31 this year, which is roughly 10% of our workforce because of the laws that will change on January 1st. Having this many people suddenly retire is creating havoc.
But the good news is that next year, we will be hiring about 900 people. They will start at lower salaries. It will decrease the level of unemployment, decrease the cost of doing business (lower salaries) and increase productivity (those who are retiring are older – like me). Projecting the experience where I work to the entire State, we may be seeing more than 200,000 people retiring by December 31st.
I wonder if anyone has done any analysis to verify if Spain could actually fund early retirement (pre-jubilacion) for people approaching pension age for about the same or less cost of what they are paying in unemployment benefits? The more people they push to retirement could mean more people that can be hired, which could itself stimulate the economy.
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@logan wrote:
The EU summit this week ended in stalemate with no progress on further plans for reform. No surprise there then. Angela Merkle darkened the mood a little, dismissing claims that the worst was over for the Eurozone and stressing that the bloc faced two further years of painful reforms, slow growth and high unemployment.
I could not agree more. In fact committing to a number is very unwise for a politician with the gravitas of ‘Mutti’. I believe the number is closer to five before any turning point is reached. That’s how long EU banks will take to recapitalise and slowly begin to lend to business again. Mortgages are a long way off particularly in Spain.
Yet I suppose some on the forum and elsewhere will continue to claim au contraire for their own private reasons. Such is life. 🙁 It pointless engaging in rational arguments with such people because they simply have an personal agenda instead of a balanced open approach to global economics.
A good post and back to sanity. I read the summit result rather differently, with a much needed banking unity on the books for the future.
Having just about got over the shock of Cameron’s endorsement of the EU last week, it no longer seems quite so strange. Leaving national sentiments aside (not an easy thing to do), and looking at the global picture, Europe needs to be united on the world stage, individual countries can no longer compete with the US, China, India, Russia and the other big players.
Cameron realises the EUs importance and may, just may want to go a step further, meaning a Eurozone for all members. It’s not such a difficult step for the British public to accept, it makes so much sense. Every country in Europe has its own, minority ‘national’ element, like UKIP in the UK and Le Pen’s party in France; they have some seven percent endorsement within their countries and could not stop a national vote for more European integration.
The biggest players would be the UK and Germany, two countries with many shared political ideals, with France, Italy and Spain lagging not too far behind.
It would need another European Treaty, either a Treaty of London, or Berlin. The immense power of such an entity would mean that future bail-outs of poorer members would be barely noticed by the taxpayers.
Now that would be a turning point, and we’re nearly there.
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Logan, as usual your post makes good sense, particularly concur with your last para, I must learn not to feed that one 🙄
Rocker, I wish I shared your optimism that ‘we’re nearly there’, I think there’s a long way to go yet, however some of us recently advocated a Northern European Alliance on a topic which made more sense than the current Eurozone format. Unfortunately what may happen first is huge civil unrest in some Eurozone countries, if Spain eventually asks for their big bailout it comes with lots of strings attached, more austerity measures which I doubt the Spanish populus can accept. 🙄
People forget that so far there’s been patch up after patch up sticking plaster effect that has just kicked the can down the road further 🙄
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A thoughtful optimistic post Rocker which I do not share.
The problem at the moment in the UK is half the parliamentary Conservative Party want the UK to withdraw from Europe. The population is also divided almost 50/50 on Europe. Cameron is caught between a rock and hard place. His job could be on the line if any future concessions are given to Europe. The Party will simply not stand for it. UKIP is a side show of no importance, Although the media like to play up Farage and his amusing antics, he is an irrelevance in the scheme of things.
In France the National Front have more support than is generally believed, particularly in the rural heartlands. The only factor that stops farmers from voting NF and anti Europe is the PAC (Politique agricole commune). Ordinary French people do not trust the Germans and who can blame them. In France memories are very long and transcend generations.
There is much political disunity between Merkle and Hollande which led to this weeks summit stalemate. They are poles apart politically. When these two major players cannot agree the EU is in the deep merde.
Personally I believe the EU and the Euro will survive this crisis. It will rumble on as it always has. The basic reason for that is most level thinking folks know Europe on balance is probably better off with it than without. It’s a close call.
The banking unity was agreed the day before at the EU Finance ministers meeting but of course heads of state will have signed it off. It’s a step forward I agree but much more needs to be done before financial services are truly integrated.
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A link-free discussion? I’d better say it quietly, just in case.
I’ve always been an optimist, and it has usually stood me in good stead. I remember when Margaret Thatcher sold off all sorts of things in the mid-eighties. I queued at the TSB bank in Bromley every day for at least a week and bought all the shares I could, in my name, my wife’s maiden name, my kids names, my parents names; and sold them all as soon as I could and bought myself a red Sierra, not any old Sierra, but a 4by4, a rocket on wheels. I bought red braces too, but ditched them when I found my young kids laughing at me behind my back.
After getting caught by the 90’s recession in the UK, I bought in Spain during their recession, I think it started later than the English one. Two or three years later, I was back in the black and doing nicely, but it was a close call.
I suppose, technically, I’ve lost bundles on my house in Spain, but the optimist in me calculates what I paid in Pesetas all those years ago and that shows a profit. It’s a false picture, of course, because I’ve chosen to ignore at least 15 years of inflation.
I like ignoring bad news, there’s too much of it around nowadays.
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Having just posted about a link-free discussion, I feel like an absolute traitor over this:
And it’s from the Daily Mail, not my favourite newspaper. I’ve got no excuse whatsoever, I just can’t help myself. My only justification is my belief in the EU being good for all Europeans.
Maybe I should fall on my knees and beg for forgiveness, but it’s too late now, I’m going to press the Send button and hope to sleep tonight.
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I’m still awake at midnight, and I’m going to post yet another link. I blame it on Rioja, or is it Cava? Either way, it’s made me happy.
Life’s too short to bear grudges, too short to live in the past.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?gl=ES&hl=es&v=s2IaFaJrmno
Good night.
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More reports of the crowds in Madrid, this time from the normally gloom laden Burbuja forums.
Of course it doesn’t mean the crisis has passed, and the unemployment rate in Madrid, although half that of Andalucia, is is far too high. But there is a significant proportion of the population who are perhaps taking advantage of the crisis with lower prices, lower rents etc. The thread has various contributors who explain how one swallow doesn’t make a summer etc.Describing the queues in various stores in the shopping centre of Sanchinarro (a richer area of madrid to the north near La Moraleja):
http://www.burbuja.info/inmobiliaria/burbuja-inmobiliaria/374761-crisis-que-cono-crisis-se-a-trapo.html-Cola de más de 20 personas en el punto de servicio de Nespresso.
-Cola para pagar en Gourmet que llegaba hasta el expositor de los quesos. Para quienes no lo conozca, ahí caben 19 personas fácil.
-En ECI la gente comprando a tutiplen al menos en las plantas de Ladies y Gentelman. Las escaleras mecánicas petadas, era como subirse a un taxi en marcha.
-Las colas en Hipercor de aupa, pero de aupa. Y la gente con los carros llenos. -
I’ve often wondered about my enthusiasm for the EU, but it’s quite simple, really. I’ve chosen to live in Spain because the UK’s membership of the EU lets me.
Digging deeper, not that I’ve thought about it much, I must suffer from that SAD illness, I suffer when it’s cold with grey skies, it depresses me. Back in the UK last year I remember driving through Suffolk on a typical grey, sunless day and the roads were icy. I couldn’t even find a place for a coffee fix until I laboriously parked in Bury St Edmunds and walked a mile to find an Italian greasy spoon.
But I pay a price for my life in the sun. I have a box full of silly documents all with official stamps on them. I paid for each one of them and came close to strangling some of the ridiculous funcionarios I came across after queuing for hours.
I shopped in supermarkets with two price lists, one for brown eyes and one for blue eyes. Am I talking about many years ago? Not really, I regularly visit a Spanish cafe where I pay 1.30 for my coffee and a Spaniard pays 70 Cents. My delicious tostado with rubbed tomato and garlic costs me 1.50, the brown-eyed people only pay 50 Cents.
But I don’t mind. I’m here for the weather. And I’m praying that Spain recovers as soon as possible, I don’t want to go back to the cold and grey skies.
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There are links and there ARE LINKS, following a good night’s sleep here’s a cracker, what turning point? 🙄
Roger Bootle, economist with more nous than the Spanish Government says at the end of article ‘Could the Euro’s supporters please tell us how the continent is going to recover? 😆
Is it now merely a case of ‘always keeping hold of Nurse, for fear of finding something worse’? 😆
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@angie wrote:
There are links and there ARE LINKS, following a good night’s sleep here’s a cracker, what turning point? 🙄
Roger Bootle, economist with more nous than the Spanish Government says at the end of article ‘Could the Euro’s supporters please tell us how the continent is going to recover? 😆
Is it now merely a case of ‘always keeping hold of Nurse, for fear of finding something worse’? 😆
So do you think that buying property in Italy is also a bad investmemt Angie? Given that Italy is also in the Euro zone?
(btw check your link, doesn’t work for me)
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Link works fine on my computer, try turning yours on 😛
Here’s another fine link, sorry it’s so old, 23rd November 2012:
http://www.investmenteurope.net/investment-eur … ains-banks
Duh!, only a credit rating agency’s view on more woes for Spanish Banks 🙄
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Cameron is likely to now allow a referendum on UK membership after the next election to keep his backbenchers happy and UKIP at bay. It’s an interesting intellectual exercise to consider how the UK would perform outside the EU whilst retaining EEA membership.
Norway is one country which does very well in that status but I cannot really believe the British would be very happy with the consequences. That is a reality of having to comply with all EU laws and regulation without political representation.
http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2012/dec/16/would-britain-do-as-well-as-norway-outside-euNow that said the only possible politically acceptable course as I see it is total withdrawal with all the difficulties that will present. Not being part of the single market would condemn Britain to economic isolation from half their foreign markets. Disaster by any other name. UKIP are being totally irresponsible punting that idea. It appeals to a xenophobic section of the population who long for the return of the Thatcher years.
I dislike the EU as it’s presently formed, a single European state and the Euro intensely but support the single market. What needs to happen is countries who share that view should be accommodated better and not viewed as some sort of errant child. The EU needs to stop forcing countries who prefer another way to conform to loony regulations and tax laws which will only stifle economic progress further.
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@logan wrote:
Cameron is likely to now allow a referendum on UK membership after the next election to keep his backbenchers happy and UKIP at bay. It’s an interesting intellectual exercise to consider how the UK would perform outside the EU whilst retaining EEA membership.
Norway is one country which does very well in that status but I cannot really believe the British would be very happy with the consequences. That is a reality of having to comply with all EU laws and regulation without political representation.
http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2012/dec/16/would-britain-do-as-well-as-norway-outside-euNow that said the only possible politically acceptable course as I see it is total withdrawal with all the difficulties that will present. Not being part of the single market would condemn Britain to economic isolation from half their foreign markets. Disaster by any other name. UKIP are being totally irresNponsible punting that idea. It appeals to a xenophobic section of the population who long for the return of the Thatcher years.
.Pure propaganda! Frequently put out by the gravy train brigade. Our exports to Europe are distorted figures. There are world trade agreements in place, emerging markets. In anycase eurozone countries may be in the doldrums for decades if they insist on clinging on to soundbites and hope it patches up a costly project, exports within the EU are already falling.. Even new world wines are now cheaper than euro wines, many much better too. We don’t need a clapped out Europe. Some say we would lose our influence..I doubt it but if so…so what 🙄 Of course the British wouldn’t have the right to work there anymore…different languages have never made it easy.
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I think the fact that Britain is struggling because the Eurozone is in recession says it all. If Britain was not so dependent on exports to single market Europe for it’s growth the country would not be in such a prolonged down turn.
It’s just not true Britain could prosper outside the EU’s single market. It may have been true 100 years ago but the world is an entirely different place. Britain is just a small island competing in a dynamic global market place where labour costs and business tax expense are far less in other places.
International companies invest in the UK because it has access to the single market and has a traded cheap currency. If the UK left it they in turn would go elsewhere. The loss of business, employment, investment and a future for it’s people would be severe if the UK lost membership of the single market.
Notice I say single market, not the EU. I make a significant distinction. However unfortunately you cannot have one without the other and retain any political influence.
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I wouldn’t like to predict the outcome of a UK vote on Europe, nor an independence vote in Scotland, and Germany will never allow a vote on the EU because their citizens are even more eurosceptic than we are.
And what if we have a No vote in the UK? Can you just tear up international treaties? Can Cameron renegotiate the terms agreed by his predecessors? Doesn’t it need the agreement of the other 27 members? France alone is sure to veto it, Hollande has already said so.
A million expats in the sun in Spain will be voting and awaiting the outcome with some trepidation, perhaps cases will already be packed. The failed expats who are already back in the UK seem to be the most gleeful, and the most eurosceptic too; I suppose failing in something must make you mad as hell.
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Not all ex-pats back in the UK have failed, they were lucky enough to get out at the right time like all those celebs that had places in Marbella, they have places in the Bahamas and the caribbean now 🙂
A few ex-pats haven’t put UKIP in third place in the latest polls….Europe as a union is finished. The only countries really keen are the ones receiving handouts. I repeat, the UK doesn’t need it 😛
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@Rocker wrote:
I wouldn’t like to predict the outcome of a UK vote on Europe, nor an independence vote in Scotland, and Germany will never allow a vote on the EU because their citizens are even more eurosceptic than we are.
Scotland currently will not vote for independence, the fear factor is too great. Remember that RBS (Royal bank of Scotland) and HBOS (union of Halifax and Bank of Scotland) both went belly-up in the financial crash, and had to be bailed out by the British govt. The Scots may be proud of their history, but they’re not fools.
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@katy wrote:
.Europe as a union is finished. The only countries really keen are the ones receiving handouts. I repeat, the UK doesn’t need it 😛
I really wonder Katy how on earth you can arrive at a statement like that. Normally you are such a level headed practical thinker.
The average British way of argument over Europe is a knee up the groin approach. “Up yours Delors” was one memorable newspaper headline I remember.
Perhaps being an island race creates a certainty in invincibility. Add that to Britain’s past colonial history and you may see my point.
I care not a stuff if Britain wishes to create economic suicide and leave the single market. The week before they do it I will withdraw all my Sterling investments which provides 50% of my income and head for Switzerland. 🙂
I have no emotional attachment to the land of my birth. It’s an over crowded, uptight alien country which happens to use English as it’s first language. Europe would rather they stayed but can and will manage very well without it.
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@logan wrote:
@katy wrote:
.Europe as a union is finished. The only countries really keen are the ones receiving handouts. I repeat, the UK doesn’t need it 😛
I really wonder Katy how on earth you can arrive at a statement like that. Normally you are such a level headed practical thinker.
The average British way of argument over Europe is a knee up the groin approach. “Up yours Delors” was one memorable newspaper headline I remember.
Perhaps being an island race creates a certainty in invincibility. Add that to Britain’s past colonial history and you may see my point.
I care not a stuff if Britain wishes to create economic suicide and leave the single market. The week before they do it I will withdraw all my Sterling investments which provides 50% of my income and head for Switzerland. 🙂 I have no emotional attachment to the land of my birth. It’s an over crowded, uptight alien country which happens to use English as it’s first language. Europe would rather they stayed but can and will manage very well without it.
Switzerland, not euroland then 😆 😆
I am not exactly alone in my thinking am I…experts all over the world are saying the Euro is stuffed. Both of you are barking mad 😉 Let’s see, it’s not over yet………….
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I have already stated I believe the Euro is a flawed currency and investing in it carries unacceptable risk. I also believe the EU is an undemocratic entity which is long overdue for reform.
Further integration of Euro-land states and a banking union will not fix the undeniable weakness of the system. That is entirely differing prevailing economic conditions especially in the peripheral states.
Spain, Greece, Portugal and now Slovenia are moving backwards in economic terms just because they are in Euro-land and stuck with policies which suit Germany and France alone.
What I am defending is the European single market principal. It used to be called the common market. That is what the British signed up for in the original referendum back in 1973 with a majority vote of 67% in favour.
The great political mistake for Britain was signing the Maastricht Treaty in 1992 which created the EU and the Euro.
The EU and it’s federalist politicians have ever since Maastricht, relentlessly morphed the common market into a Frankenstein super state.
They now have Britain over a barrel. If the UK wants to be part of the single market the country has to accept all the attendant consequences of membership. Loss of sovereignty and a weakening of it’s own parliament and law making process.
In my opinion the situation should never have been allowed to reach this stage. Now it’s only a choice left of in or out. Either one has many future negative consequences for Britain. If the new referendum takes place I have no doubt the British will vote to leave and who could blame them. However I believe it will prove to be a huge mistake.
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Good post Logan. Even our German friends tell us that most Germans are saying the same as the Brits. I can’t see the UK pulling out and not much chance of brussel kicking s out either.
Fact is the UK buys more from the EU than they buy from us. The UK could manage without the EU but could they manage without us. -
The Euro was an idea that has not worked ‘yet’, not so sure it ever will, certainly not in it’s present mode, two tier has been muted 🙄
However, if the Euro had been a large Corporate it would have filed for bankruptcy by now, had it been a medical patient on life support, the machine would have been switched off by now if it were an ordinary member of the Public and not some celebrity 🙄
I agree, the UK could manage without the Euro IMO 🙄
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By coincidence I received this from one of my investment advisers this morning. I’m reproducing a section of it here.
quote:
UK. Prime Minister David Cameron reiterated his stance that Britain should remain outside of the Eurozone on Friday, stating that: “we are in a position to maximise what we want from Europe”. Cameron argued that the Euro project has created a multifaceted Europe, which will come good eventually: “I believe what you’ll see is a growth of this multifaceted Europe, and we should see it as a strength”. Although the Prime Minister sustained his opposition to Britain joining the single currency he maintained his belief that the UK should remain in the European Union, which, on the whole, was interpreted as mildly positive by investors as it reduced the probability of further political discord.Not any hint of a referendum but most analysts see an announcement coming soon. ‘Multifaceted Europe’ is a straw blowing in the wind which DC is desperately trying to grab.
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If she is “talking up” Italy she isn’t trying very hard 😆 Scarcely noted her mentioning the place 😕
I don’t think the euro ever worked. A bit like someone living the high life with a bunch of credit cards and then they all reach their limit one day. A lot of Spain’s success was down to EU handouts which are now to be reduced…I think
There is not green shoots in Spain yet. Of course there are some business successes, always will be in any country 🙄 However, a couple of stories of a bar being full and people with full trolly’s in Hipercor doesn’t mean thing. -
I don’t talk Spain down. This is a spanish property forum and Spain is down. I know some successful businesses in Marbella…so what. Lots of others around are closed down. I don’t have any motive except after living there 15 years and cutting the crap put out from some on here with vested interests! Wy would I post there’s a Miggins pies doing well….what would be the point. 🙄
Why are you so intent on taking this thread off-topic 😈
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Oh wow! Does this mean that the UK is turning the corner, there’s a curry house doing well in Bradford too…green shoots 😆 😆
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I agree with Katy, i’ve never assumed that Angie sells property in Italy… it’s hardly been mentioned.
I’m not an estate agent either. I talk Spain down when it deserves to be talked down as there are still too many people going out there with rose tinted glasses being conned. If people know what they are getting into when they buy then great, go out and get a bargin BUT my husband (who’s Spanish) and many, many friends have been caught out by banks, developers, town halls etc. and forums like this help people make up their own mind on the subject.
I want Spain to do well as my children are half Spanish…. but I do want those who have destroyed the country by corruption to have it talked about. People should no longer go over to Spain and be conned by the system.
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There will be no more personal sniping from either side. It is boring and off-topic, so please cut it out.
I recommend you block users that bother you, if you can’t stick to debate. Here is how you block posts from other users:
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Following on from the EU discussion according to this link DC will offer the British an in out referendum with an option for a looser trade arrangements with Brussels. I have seen it coming for a while now. Cameron cannot continually ignore half his party and the rise in popularity of UKIP
Those of us who originate from the UK and now live in the EU with certain advantages such as free medical care and tax breaks had better begin making contingency plans for the future.
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Logan, with democracy everyone has an opinion and hopefully a vote, we can never all agree, it’s a human thing. I can understand those in favour of the EU, I can see why it seemed like a good idea, however try as I might, it doesn’t seem to have worked so far apart from in favour of the likes of Germany. It is a cash cow that the UK pours billions into, plus a gravy train for overpaid Eurocrats and their mates, and for these reasons ‘I’m Out’, I want the UK to come out and have free trade agreements worldwide, but this is my opinion and I can’t wait for the referendum to settle it once and for all 🙄 😉
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@logan wrote:
Following on from the EU discussion according to this link DC will offer the British an in out referendum with an option for a looser trade arrangements with Brussels. I have seen it coming for a while now. Cameron cannot continually ignore half his party and the rise in popularity of UKIP
Those of us who originate from the UK and now live in the EU with certain advantages such as free medical care and tax breaks had better begin making contingency plans for the future.
Yes it could be time for me to get dual nationality (although Spain doesn’t formally allow it)
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@katy wrote:
What free medical care? There is only the EHC. 😕
Pension age Katy, plus automatic entry to a healthcare system and residence/work entitlement. All will disappear without EU membership. UK nationals will probably be returned to the same status as other ‘aliens’ unless this is specifically negotiated at the time.
It’s early days but something is coming. I doubt Britain would want EEA status, there is simply no halfway house which will be acceptable politically.
Now where is that list of tax havens in the world, The Virgin Islands look nice. 😀 Andorra perhaps.
http://www.billshrink.com/blog/2441/15-of-the-worlds-most-significant-tax-havens/The advantages of being in the European Union.
http://www.123helpme.com/view.asp?id=150248The disadvantages of being in the European Union.
http://www.economicshelp.org/europe/disadvantages-eu.html -
The anti-Euro (the currency) debate has been raging for the past 20 years. I’ve lived in Spain for that time and followed it from the sidelines, which is not strictly true because when the Peseta went, much to my disgust, I started to lose money on my British earnings. I’m down around 30% since then. My Spanish earnings went down too, but for other reasons.
Obviously, it the UK votes Out from the EU altogether, I would have to leave Spain, and so would several hundred thousand others; possibly close to a million Brits would be homeward bound.
Not only for personal reasons, I believe the UK would be badly affected if it left the EU; the sensible reasons have been discussed here and elsewhere many times and only the staunch nationalists refuse to understand the obvious logic behind such a disastrous move.
But nationalists seem to be making a comeback all across Europe, maybe they’re fed up with 60 years of peace and it makes me sad when I hear them complaining about the Nobel peace prize going to the EU. What would they prefer? Another war?
The nationalist Catalonians, the Basques, the NPD in Germany, the similar mob in Hungary (I don’t know what they’re called), Le Pen’s mob in France, UKIP and the BNP in our pleasant land; all want to go back to the caves, blue eyes versus brown eyes, Protestants versus Catholics, Christians versus Muslims.
We won’t get another Peace Prize, that’s for sure.
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@Rocker wrote:
The nationalist Catalonians, the Basques, the NPD in Germany, the similar mob in Hungary (I don’t know what they’re called), Le Pen’s mob in France, UKIP and the BNP in our pleasant land; all want to go back to the caves, blue eyes versus brown eyes, Protestants versus Catholics, Christians versus Muslims.
well…. we cannot expect to get votes through sensible policies, now can we?
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@Rocker wrote:
The anti-Euro (the currency) debate has been raging for the past 20 years. I’ve lived in Spain for that time and followed it from the sidelines, which is not strictly true because when the Peseta went, much to my disgust, I started to lose money on my British earnings. I’m down around 30% since then. My Spanish earnings went down too, but for other reasons.
Obviously, it the UK votes Out from the EU altogether, I would have to leave Spain, and so would several hundred thousand others; possibly close to a million Brits would be homeward bound.
Not only for personal reasons, I believe the UK would be badly affected if it left the EU; the sensible reasons have been discussed here and elsewhere many times and only the staunch nationalists refuse to understand the obvious logic behind such a disastrous move.
But nationalists seem to be making a comeback all across Europe, maybe they’re fed up with 60 years of peace and it makes me sad when I hear them complaining about the Nobel peace prize going to the EU. What would they prefer? Another war?
The nationalist Catalonians, the Basques, the NPD in Germany, the similar mob in Hungary (I don’t know what they’re called), Le Pen’s mob in France, UKIP and the BNP in our pleasant land; all want to go back to the caves, blue eyes versus brown eyes, Protestants versus Catholics, Christians versus Muslims.
We won’t get another Peace Prize, that’s for sure.
You really think that post WW2 peace was down to an organisation that didn’t formally come into existence until nearly half a century after WW2 finished? Nothing to do with Germany being disarmed and split? Nothing to do with NATO? Nothing to do with a few thousand nuclear missiles being pointed at Europe from the USSR? Nothing to do with half of Europe being occupied by the USSR?
And if you really feel proud of joining a list of “Peace Prize” winners that includes the likes of Kissinger, Rabin, Peres, Arafat, Hull, Begin, and Barak “drone attack” Obama then fine, but don’t expect everyone else to take the same view. The Nobel Peace Prize is a smear and if, as you suggest, it has been given to “us” then they can shove the bit given to me where the sun don’t shine. 👿 👿 👿
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There is also the devaluation of Sterling against the Euro to consider if Britain pulls out of the EU. Parity is likely to be the consequences. So any Sterling investments would have to go before that occurred and UK pensions would have their value considerably reduced.
It would be a disaster for most UK ex-pats in Europe who largely would not have any say in the process. As if they have not been clobbered enough in the last few years this is likely to finish them off.What this uncertainty over the EU does to the recovery of the Spanish housing market from a British perspective is create yet another negative. Who will invest in Spain knowing that in the future the UK may withdraw from Europe?
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@Chopera wrote:
@Rocker wrote:
The anti-Euro (the currency) debate has been raging for the past 20 years. I’ve lived in Spain for that time and followed it from the sidelines, which is not strictly true because when the Peseta went, much to my disgust, I started to lose money on my British earnings. I’m down around 30% since then. My Spanish earnings went down too, but for other reasons.
Obviously, it the UK votes Out from the EU altogether, I would have to leave Spain, and so would several hundred thousand others; possibly close to a million Brits would be homeward bound.
Not only for personal reasons, I believe the UK would be badly affected if it left the EU; the sensible reasons have been discussed here and elsewhere many times and only the staunch nationalists refuse to understand the obvious logic behind such a disastrous move.
But nationalists seem to be making a comeback all across Europe, maybe they’re fed up with 60 years of peace and it makes me sad when I hear them complaining about the Nobel peace prize going to the EU. What would they prefer? Another war?
The nationalist Catalonians, the Basques, the NPD in Germany, the similar mob in Hungary (I don’t know what they’re called), Le Pen’s mob in France, UKIP and the BNP in our pleasant land; all want to go back to the caves, blue eyes versus brown eyes, Protestants versus Catholics, Christians versus Muslims.
We won’t get another Peace Prize, that’s for sure.
You really think that post WW2 peace was down to an organisation that didn’t formally come into existence until nearly half a century after WW2 finished? Nothing to do with Germany being disarmed and split? Nothing to do with NATO? Nothing to do with a few thousand nuclear missiles being pointed at Europe from the USSR? Nothing to do with half of Europe being occupied by the USSR?
And if you really feel proud of joining a list of “Peace Prize” winners that includes the likes of Kissinger, Rabin, Peres, Arafat, Hull, Begin, and Barak “drone attack” Obama then fine, but don’t expect everyone else to take the same view. The Nobel Peace Prize is a smear and if, as you suggest, it has been given to “us” then they can shove the bit given to me where the sun don’t shine. 👿 👿 👿
We seem to differ at a fundamental level here, a good opportunity for a discussion. Basically I suppose it’s our different interpretation of one word, namely Peace.
Splitting and disarming Germany leading to peace? I would suggest the opposite and point to a treaty of 1918. NATO and 40 years of cold war being a peaceful event, not in my view. A few thousand Russian and American missiles facing each other doesn’t seem very peaceful to me. I don’t remember half of Europe being occupied by the USSR.
I think Churchill first muted the idea of the EU as soon as 1945.
And if you regard the Nobel Peace Prize as a smear, then I don’t know what to say – I’ve never heard it described that way before.
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@logan wrote:
There is also the devaluation of Sterling against the Euro to consider if Britain pulls out of the EU. Parity is likely to be the consequences. So any Sterling investments would have to go before that occurred and UK pensions would have their value considerably reduced.
It would be a disaster for most UK ex-pats in Europe who largely would not have any say in the process. As if they have not been clobbered enough in the last few years this is likely to finish them off.I have no doubt they will all have to return home.
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Thorbjørn Johansen is a Norwegian politician for the Labour Party, currently serving as the Secretary-General of the Council of Europe. He is also the Chairman of the Norwegian Nobel Committee and as such responsible for awarding the Nobel Peace Prize.
It’s this form of nepotism which brings disrepute on the Nobel prize and the EU. They simply fail to grasp how other nations view what the get up to. It was a little nauseating to say the least watching them all congratulating themselves when accepting the peace prize. Then those awful speeches as if they the un-elected leaders of a bureaucratic entity spoke for the peoples of Europe.
I don’t believe the EU has prevented war in Europe. It failed to influence anything during the break up of Yugoslavia or elsewhere in the world. What has prevented Germany from starting another European war was what happened after 1945, the occupation, democratisation of German and the subsequent prosperity Western Germany enjoyed on the back of the Marshal Plan. The communists did the rest in the eastern sector.
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@logan wrote:
Thorbjørn Johansen is a Norwegian politician for the Labour Party, currently serving as the Secretary-General of the Council of Europe. He is also the Chairman of the Norwegian Nobel Committee and as such responsible for awarding the Nobel Peace Prize.
It’s this form of nepotism which brings disrepute on the Nobel prize and the EU. They simply fail to grasp how other nations view what the get up to. It was a little nauseating to say the least watching them all congratulating themselves when accepting the peace prize. Then those awful speeches as if they the un-elected leaders of a bureaucratic entity spoke for the peoples of Europe.
I don’t believe the EU has prevented war in Europe. It failed to influence anything during the break up of Yugoslavia or elsewhere in the world. What has prevented Germany from starting another European war was what happened after 1945, the occupation, democratisation of German and the subsequent prosperity Western Germany enjoyed on the back of the Marshal Plan. The communists did the rest in the eastern sector.
It just goes to show, a little knowledge (on my part, of course) . . .
I thought the Marshall Plan was for all of Europe, not just Germany.
As for the Nobel prize, I thought it came from Sweden and was awarded by a panel of wise men and experts in the field, not just one Norwegian, a member of the Labour party at that.
I’m happy to stand corrected and am not going to argue further. Now if we had been discussing the Nobel Prize for Literature, I would have had a bit more to say, it’s a subject I may know more about; and I agree with most of the recipients who have been awarded the honour, even the American winners who seem to be (or have been) raging alcoholics to a man.
And didn’t Gorbatschow get the Peace prize? I always thought he was the one to deserve it most of all.
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Rocker.
I should have written Thorbjørn Jagland as the man responsible for the prize being awarded to the EU. Apologies.http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nobel_Peace_Prize
You will see that when Nobel who died in 1896 Sweden and Norway were essentially the same country.
Quote:
It is unclear why Nobel wished the Peace Prize to be administered in Norway, which was ruled in union with Sweden at the time of Nobel’s death. The Norwegian Nobel Committee speculates that Nobel may have considered Norway better suited to awarding the prize, as it did not have the same militaristic traditions as Sweden. It also notes that at the end of the 19th century, the Norwegian parliament had become closely involved in the Inter-Parliamentary Union’s efforts to resolve conflicts through mediation and arbitration.Aid from The Marshall Plan was indeed given to the whole of Western Europe by the USA at the end of the war. However it’s great success was in modernising West Germany’s devastated industrial capacity from 1945 onward.
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Well afew of these posts made me smile. Can’t be bothered to quote some of the statements.
Ex-pats couldn’t live in Spain…of course they could, there were thousands before Spain joined the UK. Now Spain has moved the goalposts the same requirements to live there are needed pre-EU membership. Health care is NOT free for pensioners the UK, Germany etc pays Xthousand of pounds per pensioner. These arrangements were with many countries that are not in the EU too. In any event what is a few ex-pats in the grand scheme of getting out of the train crash that is the EU.
The EU has brought peace …..sheer tosh.
The Noble prizes used to have credibility, not anymore. The award to the whole of the EU is a farce, a joke surely! The are playing to the media 👿
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@logan wrote:
Rocker.
I should have written Thorbjørn Jagland as the man responsible for the prize being awarded to the EU. Apologies.http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nobel_Peace_Prize
You will see that when Nobel who died in 1896 Sweden and Norway were essentially the same country.
Quote:
It is unclear why Nobel wished the Peace Prize to be administered in Norway, which was ruled in union with Sweden at the time of Nobel’s death. The Norwegian Nobel Committee speculates that Nobel may have considered Norway better suited to awarding the prize, as it did not have the same militaristic traditions as Sweden. It also notes that at the end of the 19th century, the Norwegian parliament had become closely involved in the Inter-Parliamentary Union’s efforts to resolve conflicts through mediation and arbitration.Aid from The Marshall Plan was indeed given to the whole of Western Europe by the USA at the end of the war. However it’s great success was in modernising West Germany’s devastated industrial capacity from 1945 onward.
Thanks for that, Logan. It’s mostly my fault because for some reason, of late, I’ve developed an aversion for googling.
I avidly watch the news, read newspapers, mostly online, and I’ve always been a fervent book reader, but I’m totally fed up looking up something, anything on Google. I’m put off by the self-serving advertising and the trillions of pages of absolute rubbish online, a lot of it dangerous stuff indeed.
For commercial reasons I have a web presence and belong to several media sites because of it, and it’s turned into a real pain for most of the time. Logging into something like Facebook has turned into a nightmare which I try to turn into an only once a week event, thousands of daft posts just to find the few that I actually want to reply to.
And if I get another Kindle or iPad for Christmas, I’m going to take a hammer to them.
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I agree with a number of you that the EU agreement/architects did not bring Peace, but there can be no argument that it is a brilliant enabler of future peace.
I think the main EU group would have never ever gone to war again (UK, Germany, France, Italy, Spain, Lux, Switzerland, Belg) due to numerous items. But NATO has kind of guaranteed that;
– None of the European countries have a force to sustain anything, let alone against each other
– They are permanently training and coordinating together (everything Navy, Air force, Army)
– They share bases, equipment and technologyI do not think the same guarantee extends to the newer and future states however and that is why I think the EU needs some credit here. We need these new countries on a more accelerated interconnective path, to make up for the last 50 years the core group had.
First for the inter twinned job prosperity (manufacturing plants spread throughout Europe where they all depend on each other), second the cross boarder mobility and the mixing of cultures and last the direct cross boarder investment (who wants to bomb their summer house and or your neighbors there)
Ok you miserable bunch of skeptics, enjoy your coal! 😀
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Although the article that follows is a bit wobbly, the headline is most accurate:
The elephant in the EU room has said many times that the EU will be weaker without the UK too, so there seems to be agreement from all sides on this topic,
And what about the elephant on the world stage, China? They too would prefer one phone line to Europe, rather than several, disparate ones.
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The healthcare issue in the EU is a reciprocal treaty providing healthcare anywhere in the EU for it’s citizens based on what each individual state provides for it’s citizens. It is a condition of membership of the EU.
It’s mostly free at the point of delivery for the individual but is paid for by the health service of your own country. There is also an automatic right for younger people to enter the national insurance arrangements of each individual state.
If the UK left the EU it’s reciprocal treaty would lapse and in it’s place a renegotiated arrangement would be needed. You can be sure that will not provide the standard of care cover we all currently enjoy and would place obstacles in the way of gaining residence within the EU. Such as minimum levels of income, emergency treatment etc.
Of course healthcare standards vary considerably from country to country. France has the highest standard of healthcare in the world. Equivalent to the best private care anywhere. Spain is better than the UK or at least it used to be but of course it’s now in decline.
Private healthcare for people of pension age is prohibitively expensive and would force older people back to the UK. You cannot live anywhere without healthcare as you age. Spain’s expat population are mostly retired people who would flood back to Britain.
I have calculated if the UK left the EU it would cost me personally around €10k per annum if I remain living in the EU. It would also complicate my life and increase the bureaucratic burden. I would reluctantly have to consider returning to live in UK or moving elsewhere.
Britain leaving the EU is dangerous nonsense and the implications of such a move have not been thought out by those who advocate it. I have not read one sensible level headed intellectual argument anywhere that is justified. It’s mostly all jingoistic clap trap based on misinformation by the likes of UKIP and the Tory right.
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Logan your reasoning for staying in the EU sound self-centered. Free health care for ex-pat pensioners and emergency treatment for those under pension age is not a jusifiable reason for the UK to give the EU billions to waste. Everytime a eurozone country requires a bailout the UK has to cough up around 15 billion. If you dismiss the people wanting out as jingoist then you are completely out of touch with what is being said in the UK.
BTW, UKIP is now the third party in the UK on 14% the Lib-dems came in at 9%.
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UKIP is now the third party in the UK
No it is not. In terms of MPS it’s behind the Scots Nats, Ulster Unionsts, Sinn Fein and even Respect (who won a seat with George Galloway). So it couldn’t even be described as the 7th party in the UK. You cannot confuse a temporary two-week good showing in the polls with this type of statement.
Can UKIP ever win a parliamentary election seat? Doubtful at the moment, although if Cameron messes up his Euro-referendum policy it’s possible – there is talk that some existing MPs may exit and leave the Conservative party. But if the Conservatives make a binding commitment to a EU referendum as part of their manifesto at the next general election, does anyone seriously believe UKIP can win even ONE seat? -
@itsme wrote:
And doesn’t the NHS have to pay for the healthcare that expats receive out in Spain…..and it’s close to 500 million per year? So it wouldn’t make any difference to the costs of healthcare, probably would actually reduce them as i’m sure ‘extras’ are added to the ‘facturas’ sent to the UK ??
I think the point is that a million retired individuals would no longer have their healthcare funded out in Spain, or indeed in other EU countries. The govt/nhs might save on that 500 million a year, but be faced with a bill of billions as that million flooded back to the UK, started using the nhs system again, and in some cases seeking out council accommodation, benefit payments etc.
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Ref ‘Turning Point’ I’ve just seen that Goldman has an article about Spanish recovery or signs of green shoots, the question was asked ‘When do economists actually expect Spain’s economy to begin growing again’? Their latest forecast shows it will be some 3 years before even a modest real GDP growth should be expected’!
A separate article by Property Works chartered surveyors in Spain says ‘Institutional Investors are waiting for ‘demolition prices’ ie. 70% off book values before investing, and not the 50% off values seen today’. 😯
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@DBMarcos99 wrote:
UKIP is now the third party in the UK
No it is not. In terms of MPS it’s behind the Scots Nats, Ulster Unionsts, Sinn Fein and even Respect (who won a seat with George Galloway). So it couldn’t even be described as the 7th party in the UK. You cannot confuse a temporary two-week good showing in the polls with this type of statement.
Can UKIP ever win a parliamentary election seat? Doubtful at the moment, although if Cameron messes up his Euro-referendum policy it’s possible – there is talk that some existing MPs may exit and leave the Conservative party. But if the Conservatives make a binding commitment to a EU referendum as part of their manifesto at the next general election, does anyone seriously believe UKIP can win even ONE seat?Perhaps not bums on seats but remember what you were told on another forum…
Lab 39%
Tories 28%
UKIP 14%
Libs 9%UKIP are now clearly the Third party !
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@katy wrote:
@DBMarcos99 wrote:
UKIP is now the third party in the UK
No it is not. In terms of MPS it’s behind the Scots Nats, Ulster Unionsts, Sinn Fein and even Respect (who won a seat with George Galloway). So it couldn’t even be described as the 7th party in the UK. You cannot confuse a temporary two-week good showing in the polls with this type of statement.
Can UKIP ever win a parliamentary election seat? Doubtful at the moment, although if Cameron messes up his Euro-referendum policy it’s possible – there is talk that some existing MPs may exit and leave the Conservative party. But if the Conservatives make a binding commitment to a EU referendum as part of their manifesto at the next general election, does anyone seriously believe UKIP can win even ONE seat?Perhaps not bums on seats but remember what you were told on another forum…
Lab 39%
Tories 28%
UKIP 14%
Libs 9%UKIP are now clearly the Third party !
Seventh!!!!
(until they actually win some parliamentary seats 😆 )
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@DBMarcos99 wrote:
@itsme wrote:
And doesn’t the NHS have to pay for the healthcare that expats receive out in Spain…..and it’s close to 500 million per year? So it wouldn’t make any difference to the costs of healthcare, probably would actually reduce them as i’m sure ‘extras’ are added to the ‘facturas’ sent to the UK ??
I think the point is that a million retired individuals would no longer have their healthcare funded out in Spain, or indeed in other EU countries. The govt/nhs might save on that 500 million a year, but be faced with a bill of billions as that million flooded back to the UK, started using the nhs system again, and in some cases seeking out council accommodation, benefit payments etc.
But subtract the money going back into the UK economy that ex-pats are spending in Europe. Also the many billions saved by not paying Brussels. Then there is the small matter of the hundreds of thousands of Bulgarians etc. who will be making their way over next year. Just think how much the UK could save if all the Europeans who didn’t have a job had to leave…bring it on
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@katy wrote:
Logan your reasoning for staying in the EU sound self-centered. Free health care for ex-pat pensioners and emergency treatment for those under pension age is not a jusifiable reason for the UK to give the EU billions to waste. Everytime a eurozone country requires a bailout the UK has to cough up around 15 billion. If you dismiss the people wanting out as jingoist then you are completely out of touch with what is being said in the UK.
BTW, UKIP is now the third party in the UK on 14% the Lib-dems came in at 9%.
Katy.
This is only one reason which happens to effect expats directly. If I discussed all the other reasons why the UK needs the EU it would bore the forum to death. Your mind is closed on the subject like so many other Brits with a particular cause.
I accept the EU is a dogs breakfast but that’s no reason to withdraw. Change from within when you have influence is the positive way forward. -
Something seems to be missing from this discussion: The perceptions of the rest of the world.
While the US – rightfully or not – retains the ‘greatest country on earth’ designation, there are millions and millions of people throughout the world who not only support the EU, we view the idea and implementation of the EU as a beacon of hope as to how, globally, we can reorganize our economic and political systems into something good and still retain our diverse cultural identities, customs and laws.
I’m stunned that at the first sight of blood, many in and out of the EU would rather give up instead of appointing leaders who can figure out the right approach to changing what is a major flaw in the economic system.
“Austerity” as a response to the crisis is not working. (Actually, the way it is implemented in Greece, it seems to be nothing more than a lazy-man’s policy to attempt to achieve “accountability.”) And even though it is a demonstrable policy failure, the so-called experts continue their reform blood-lust for more austerity.
They could channel their efforts into real reform, country by country, such as assisting Spain in changing laws to make it easier for new business to open. People always discuss the employment contracts as being a problem that, politically, is difficult to solve. Yes, that is one problem out of hundreds of problems for businesses. But there are other problems that have solutions that that are not controversial – such as a streamlined permitting/certification process.
I am not an economist and I surely don’t have all the answers. But it is very clear that more of the same is idiocy.
And I suggest that even though times are difficult, the EU is worth saving.
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Logan, I generally agree with most of your posts, also with many of Gary’s comments, but to say ‘the voice of sanity’ no doubt a reference to katy’s post is a bit unfair. After all everyone has an opinion, who is to say one is right or wrong, there is never agreement between everyone as in political matters, why does that make you consider you are right and someone else is wrong? Sometimes as I’ve said before, things are not worth saving, they can cost even too much to save, sometimes a Plan B is needed.
My opinion differs with yours too on this issue, I do not like the current EU model, as a Brit. I want out, but I can’t alter the decision makers nor the economists’ views many of whom agree with katy, but nothing to do with ‘sanity’ 🙄
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Angie.
My remark was not directed towards either you or Katy. I meant the general political consensus in the UK which is leading towards this referendum on EU membership. It’s now become an of control bandwagon for extreme political views on the right.The British need to take stock, and reflect of the consequences. Gary suggests new strategic thinking is preferable to a vote on exit and I agree with him.
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You’re both sane and rational in your posts Gary as is logan, and agree totally with your last sentence, also agree with logan regarding the bandwagon comment, it is such a big issue though that some serious thinking by all parties is required which I suspect will happen. Comment just came across wrongly especially as katy too says things as they are on here from her experiences, and very knowledgeable she is on Spanish and other matters. 😉
Just my personal view, I don’t care for the EU, the Euro etc, I like the idea of free trade anywhere, no conditions set by Brussels maybe German Bureaucrats, I like Sovereign Britain, and I quite like NAFTA trading block too who we are also quite close to looking at top of a Globe 🙄
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The reason why successive British governments have refused to hold a referendum on the EU is because they were waiting for the remnants of Dad’s Army to die out, knowing full well that they would never vote for staying in the EU.
That time is near now, but in the meantime the same successive governments have been ambushed by a brown invasion from the former colonies, which has antagonised yet another influential sector of British opinion. And on top of that we’ve now had the ‘eastern’ invasion from Poland and the like, perceived as stealing British jobs, in my view a stupid assumption.
Referendums are dangerous, their outcome can be influenced adversely by the media, and until recently one man, Rupert Murdoch, more or less single-handedly elected successive British governments.
A headline in the Sun – ‘would the last person to leave please put the lights out’ – reversed an opinion poll overnight, and that could easily happen again. It probably will.
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@Rocker wrote:
And on top of that we’ve now had the ‘eastern’ invasion from Poland and the like, perceived as stealing British jobs, in my view a stupid assumption.
.Nothing stupid about that as it goes only last week i quoted on tiling a bathroom, a job that would take me 2 1/2 days i put in for £300 it went to a couple of polish guys who did the job for £180 it took them 2 days so earning £45 a day each i can not work for that and pay my bills and i don’t know any family men with houses and kids that could,they live in a rented house with 4 other poles all sharing the bills.
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@dartboy wrote:
@Rocker wrote:
And on top of that we’ve now had the ‘eastern’ invasion from Poland and the like, perceived as stealing British jobs, in my view a stupid assumption.
.Nothing stupid about that as it goes only last week i quoted on tiling a bathroom, a job that would take me 2 1/2 days i put in for £300 it went to a couple of polish guys who did the job for £180 it took them 2 days so earning £45 a day each i can not work for that and pay my bills and i don’t know any family men with houses and kids that could,they live in a rented house with 4 other poles all sharing the bills.
Rates are falling everywhere, if you know where to look. For one of my latest web projects I’ve needed translations from native Spanish speakers (it’s always a bad idea to do this yourself if you are not a native speaker). I’ve been using Myntmarket (a Spanish equivalent to 3to30 , fiverr or elance) but the rates are embarrassingly low. 5 Euros for a translation job that probably takes 2-3 hours. And in the past we’ve hired builders from EE countries living in London.
As you say, these are hardly living rates, but it’s a fool who wouldn’t take advantage of the cheap deals if the work is good. And I suppose at least it’s providing some paid work to others.EDIT: Of course in many cases it pays to hire a professional at the right rate. As Red Adair used to say “If you think I’m expensive, wait and see what hiring a cowboy will cost you”…
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I have no objection to Poles or any other nationality being in the country if they work…it’s the thousands that don’t and receive all the benefits that need deporting.
Rocker your comments are beginning to sound stupid…do you actually mix with any of the younger generation in the UK. 🙄 Sheer self interest on your part.
Referendum now..VOTE UKIP 😆 😆
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@DBMarcos99 wrote:
Just think how much the UK could save if all the Europeans who didn’t have a job had to leave…bring it on
If the UK leaves the EU and joins the EEA (which is the Tories plan) the right to work and reside will still apply (as it does in Norway for instance). The difference will be that the UK will not be able to opt-out of anything or influence the decision making.
EEA membership will still require payment of EU fees, probably without the rebate.
@logan wrote:
Angie.
I meant the general political consensus in the UK which is leading towards this referendum on EU membership. It’s now become an of control bandwagon for extreme political views on the right.This is a conservative party issue, they are losing vote to their crazy half and have decide they need a referendum to save their voting base.
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@katy wrote:
I have no objection to Poles or any other nationality being in the country if they work…it’s the thousands that don’t and receive all the benefits that need deporting.
Rocker your comments are beginning to sound stupid…do you actually mix with any of the younger generation in the UK. 🙄 Sheer self interest on your part.
Referendum now..VOTE UKIP 😆 😆
With diametrically opposed views on the European question, there is no common ground between us, but what an opportunity for a discussion, preferably a reasonably sensible one.
Since I live in Spain, I can’t regularly mix with the younger generation in the UK, only when I visit friends and family back home, or when they come and visit me in Spain, both of which are common events.
Deporting people back to where they come from for being on benefits, maybe through losing their jobs, seems a harsh option to me; and does it even work? I don’t know the numbers, but would imagine that most of the people UKIP object to are British born, though brown in colour.
I’ll stop there, I don’t agree with that kind of thing.
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@katy wrote:
I have no objection to Poles or any other nationality being in the country if they work…it’s the thousands that don’t and receive all the benefits that need deporting.
You do understand that you have to work and pay taxes for a year solid before being eligible for any benefits in the UK?
Your Daily Mail probably doesn’t tell you that Poles have no interest in sitting around surviving when they could do the same or better back home with their families (not just their immediate families).
Poles come to the UK to work, there is nothing else there of interest or appeal. -
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@peterhun wrote:
@katy wrote:
I have no objection to Poles or any other nationality being in the country if they work…it’s the thousands that don’t and receive all the benefits that need deporting.
You do understand that you have to work and pay taxes for a year solid before being eligible for any benefits in the UK?
Your Daily Mail probably doesn’t tell you that Poles have no interest in sitting around surviving when they could do the same or better back home with their families (not just their immediate families).
Poles come to the UK to work, there is nothing else there of interest or appeal.That’s right, and increasingly many are being hit hard by the crisis and ending up homeless. This impression being given by the right, that it’s a cushy number if you lose your job, is sadly far from the truth..
43% more sleeping rough in London this year
http://www.standard.co.uk/lifestyle/london-life/no-room-at-the-inn-8425131.html?origin=internalSearchHomeless Link’s CEO Rick Henderson told the Standard that among the new homeless, his workers are increasingly meeting Eastern European migrants — who have no recourse to benefits — and the young.
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Meanwhile there seems to be more large investors moving back into Spain – this article is from October, but given the reduction in bond costs since it seems as though a sea-change has taken place.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-10-30/spain-narrows-central-government-budget-deficit-to-4-39-.htmlSpain posted its second current account surplus in the euro’s history and foreign investors increased their holdings for the first time this year, helping Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy’s campaign to resist a bailout.
Meanwhile big players such as Carlos Slim and Warren Buffett have invested in Spain this month. Calculated gamble or sentimental mistake? Interesting too that the Ibex is now at around 8250 after going below 6000 back in June, so a 30%+ gain there! Maybe the big investors feel that Spanish companies that have withstood the recession, are in good shape to take advantage of any recovery (and may be doing already on the export side)?
It has to be said that my tip, Telefonica, isn’t performing that well… 🙄 -
peter, I think you will find that destitute immigrants in the UK do not have to wait for a year (officially maybe) to receive some sort of benefits and help. The UK is a soft touch for anyone who has nothing, they will get hostel accommodation or shelter, emergency money to buy food, money to travel to work in fields and factories, medical help and prescriptions, free dental etc.
If anyone turned up in the UK with nothing but claiming political asylum they will be housed, fed, and watered so to speak with a few bob in their pockets whilst being processed or awaiting deportation. 🙄
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How to get benefits in the UK is allover the spanish forums. They can be in and on housing benefit and about £60PW within 2 months…I know someone who has done it too!
As for the homeless in London…when hasn’t there been 🙄 They are drawn like moths to capital cities. Ever seen the Chabolas in Madrid ❓
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Someone has made the point elsewhere that if you consider Amuncio Ortega, Warren Buffett and Carlos Slim have all now invested in Spain, that the world’s richest men now have interests there (or course Ortega started his business there). I suppose the downside is they can influence government policy and threaten to pull out if they don’t get their way.
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@DBMarcos99 wrote:
Meanwhile there seems to be more large investors moving back into Spain – this article is from October, but given the reduction in bond costs since it seems as though a sea-change has taken place.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-10-30/spain-narrows-central-government-budget-deficit-to-4-39-.htmlSpain posted its second current account surplus in the euro’s history and foreign investors increased their holdings for the first time this year, helping Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy’s campaign to resist a bailout.
Meanwhile big players such as Carlos Slim and Warren Buffett have invested in Spain this month. Calculated gamble or sentimental mistake? Interesting too that the Ibex is now at around 8250 after going below 6000 back in June, so a 30%+ gain there! Maybe the big investors feel that Spanish companies that have withstood the recession, are in good shape to take advantage of any recovery (and may be doing already on the export side)?
It has to be said that my tip, Telefonica, isn’t performing that well… 🙄Very similar to some making a packet out of Greece. As for the IBEX you have to look at it historically to see how dire it is…. much slower recovery than other major economies.
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If it’s so ludicrous why post here (unless you want conversions to your Italian sales)? 😆
As it happens I can’t see Spanish house prices rising for a long time yet. But I do see a real possibility of growth in the Euro zone next year, and thank god for that. Too many have suffered from the recession, and even Gideon blames poor UK economic figures on the Eurozone.
But there are signs things are starting to turn around. Let’s hope so [crosses fingers]Strong exports, slight wage rises offer euro zone hope
http://www.foxbusiness.com/news/2012/12/17/strong-exports-slight-wage-rises-offer-euro-zone-hope/ -
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Marcos is on my FOE list so I don’t read his rubbish anymore.
‘Turning Point’ could refer to Britain’s EU status. I rather enjoyed the discussion and reading everyone’s view on EU membership.It struck me as odd that Spain, Greece and other states are desperately trying to remain as members or intent on seeking acceptance. Whereas the French and the British are totally ambivalent.
Perhaps the EU is not a ‘rich nations club’ as it was once described when there were only six members but a poor nations gravy train. 🙁
Either way I foresee Britain as the first nation state to leave of it’s own accord come the next election and who knows France may follow if Le Pen and the FN has anything to do with it. That would suit me fine and I would apply to become French, I’ve been here long enough.
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@logan wrote:
This link say’s it all. 🙁
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/david-cameron/9756858/David-Cameron-commits-to-fighting-2015-election-on-anti-Europe-ticket.htmlI read the article with obvious interest, and he’s said it before, I think with the make-up of his party he really has no choice. He also said only a few days ago that the UK would be better off within Europe, I suppose you can reconcile both statements with a bit of spin.
Cameron can’t ignore what the thinking part of the rest of the world knows, but nor can he ignore his back benchers.
Anyway, next year is Merkel’s in Germany, I’ve got no idea how that will go, probably another coalition. The US has turned its back on the Republicans once again. Rajoy is fairly entrenched in Spain and France is bound to stay socialist for a few more years.
An interesting mix all round, and I’ve missed out the other 95% of the world because I have scant knowledge of it.
I think the EU and also the Eurozone is here to stay and don’t think anyone, not even Greece will leave. The can will be kicked for another year.
The most sensible things to have happened of late have been two of the biggest players being awarded peace prizes, Obama and the EU. What a clever thing to do. What sort of person or organisation would go to war after being awarded a peace prize?
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@shakeel wrote:
@rocker. You go to war than once the objective is acheived you call a halt to it & Biongo you get a Nobrel peace prize. You should grow old & cynical like me. It is fun believe me.
You might be surprised how close I am to that stage, but at the moment the optimism has just got the upper hand over the cynicism.
We’ve done the big Christmas shop today, three Spanish supermarkets to get the best out of their different specialities. I don’t want to keep it a secret, Consum, Carrefour and Mercadona in that order.
I’m ashamed of the next bit, maybe. After Mercadona, she went to the Chino next door for a curtain rail. While I sat in the car, yet another beggar approached with a board proclaiming that he had two children to support, along with pictures of them.
I was going to send him packing, but the Christmas spirit suddenly came over me. I called him back and ‘interrogated’ him, in case he was yet another Rumanian gippo liar.
He wasn’t, sounded genuine and I gave him two Euros. I had already given two Euros to an accordion player outside Consum.
I don’t think I’m off topic, not too much anyway, today was a turning point for me, last year I was only giving out single Euros.
Anyway, if the Mayan calendar is correct, all of us only have a few hours left.
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@DBMarcos99 wrote:
Strong exports, slight wage rises offer euro zone hope
http://www.foxbusiness.com/news/2012/12/17/strong-exports-slight-wage-rises-offer-euro-zone-hope/Bit here about spanish exports
Pockets of the Spanish economy are dynamic. Exports have grown at a blistering pace, driven by high-tech goods from the industrial hubs of the Basque country and Navarre. Shipments have risen 27pc since 2009 – comparable to Germany and far ahead of France.
The current account deficit has narrowed from 10pc of GDP to 2pc this year and may reach balance next year. It is a hotly disputed point whether this is due chiefly to a collapse in internal consumption, down 18pc from the peak. If so, the deficit will shoot back up once growth resumes.
Standard & Poor’s warned last month that the export sector is, in any case, too small to save the day and will not prevent further downgrades. It said exports make up just 30pc of GDP and “cannot alone restore growth” at a time of deep contraction of investment and internal demand
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Interesting article here about the World’s Worst Housing Market:
http://www.businessinsider.com/spain-housing-market-december-2012-2012-12?op=1
What was really surprising is that it says Madrid’s housing market has dropped 17.9% year on year Q3 as I read it. Also, click on those pages 1-25 and from page 5 onwards some of those awful looking flats remind me of some in London close to The London Business School we sometimes visit, as well as in East London. There’s hardly any difference, concrete ex local authority stuff they look like. 🙄
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I don’t know why, and I don’t mind, but Macbeth’s three witches seem to have been reduced to two on this forum. Two failed expats prattling on about their wrinkled remembrances of playing golf on the CDS 20 years ago.
The world has moved on, Spain has moved on, you’re back in the UK, and to be honest the CDS has moved on.
Let it go, you’ve had your time in the sun, just like the mayfly.
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There is no country in the developed world that can survive on exports alone except perhaps China but they have a completely different domestic structure. It’s a positive for Spain their exports are rising well but not a ‘turning point’.
The consumer is key to recovery in every industrialised country. Unfortunately governments are clobbering them with rising taxes and restrictions which choke off any hope of real growth.
The black or clandestine economy is thriving everywhere. It’s the peoples response to top heavy intrusive government who can think of only one solution – austerity.
People have to survive the country’s needs will always come second to that.
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From what I can see of Spanish tax collection measures, and law enforcement in general, it doesn’t work very well. The populace seem to have a reluctance to obey government measures to a degree that astonishes foreigners like myself.
On an extremely basic level, Spanish drivers ignore road signs, at a higher level tax evasion is the name of the game. A restaurant I go to only switches the till on during quiet times and most of the staff work for tips alone, without a contract. I’ve seldom had a VAT bill, don’t use my credit card and pay cash wherever I go – like everyone else.
A consumer led recovery is going to take a long time, and austerity measures are not the answer, especially if they are unenforceable. Having said that and with a dreaded letter from Hacienda in my letter box (not a Christmas card), I don’t know what the answer is.
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@Rocker wrote:
@Chopera wrote:
@Rocker wrote:
The anti-Euro (the currency) debate has been raging for the past 20 years. I’ve lived in Spain for that time and followed it from the sidelines, which is not strictly true because when the Peseta went, much to my disgust, I started to lose money on my British earnings. I’m down around 30% since then. My Spanish earnings went down too, but for other reasons.
Obviously, it the UK votes Out from the EU altogether, I would have to leave Spain, and so would several hundred thousand others; possibly close to a million Brits would be homeward bound.
Not only for personal reasons, I believe the UK would be badly affected if it left the EU; the sensible reasons have been discussed here and elsewhere many times and only the staunch nationalists refuse to understand the obvious logic behind such a disastrous move.
But nationalists seem to be making a comeback all across Europe, maybe they’re fed up with 60 years of peace and it makes me sad when I hear them complaining about the Nobel peace prize going to the EU. What would they prefer? Another war?
The nationalist Catalonians, the Basques, the NPD in Germany, the similar mob in Hungary (I don’t know what they’re called), Le Pen’s mob in France, UKIP and the BNP in our pleasant land; all want to go back to the caves, blue eyes versus brown eyes, Protestants versus Catholics, Christians versus Muslims.
We won’t get another Peace Prize, that’s for sure.
You really think that post WW2 peace was down to an organisation that didn’t formally come into existence until nearly half a century after WW2 finished? Nothing to do with Germany being disarmed and split? Nothing to do with NATO? Nothing to do with a few thousand nuclear missiles being pointed at Europe from the USSR? Nothing to do with half of Europe being occupied by the USSR?
And if you really feel proud of joining a list of “Peace Prize” winners that includes the likes of Kissinger, Rabin, Peres, Arafat, Hull, Begin, and Barak “drone attack” Obama then fine, but don’t expect everyone else to take the same view. The Nobel Peace Prize is a smear and if, as you suggest, it has been given to “us” then they can shove the bit given to me where the sun don’t shine. 👿 👿 👿
We seem to differ at a fundamental level here, a good opportunity for a discussion. Basically I suppose it’s our different interpretation of one word, namely Peace.
Splitting and disarming Germany leading to peace? I would suggest the opposite and point to a treaty of 1918. NATO and 40 years of cold war being a peaceful event, not in my view. A few thousand Russian and American missiles facing each other doesn’t seem very peaceful to me. I don’t remember half of Europe being occupied by the USSR.
I think Churchill first muted the idea of the EU as soon as 1945.
And if you regard the Nobel Peace Prize as a smear, then I don’t know what to say – I’ve never heard it described that way before.
So when it comes to NATO there was no peace in Europe for 40 years after WW2 but when it comes to the EU there was?
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To be frank Rocker, some of what you’ve said on here is pure drivel and most knowledgeable posters know there is no ‘turning point’, it’s a self-interest thing of yours because you’re there and in it so to speak, and you’ve lost out which you’ve admitted too, so it’s probably natural that you want to look through ‘rose tinted specs’. Let’s say you’re right that a turning point has come (which it hasn’t) do you think your property/assets are suddenly going to be as they were, how many years would you have to wait?
I don’t think for one moment you can fool anyone from the UK into buying in Spain nor that Spain’s problems are now over, a bit like your mate’s views who you’re beginning to sound like 😆 🙄
Anyone wishing to buy in Spain will do so because they have decided to from their own assessment, the misleading and deception has to stop, transparency should be the norm now as with agents like Andrew, they will be the winners 😛
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My advice, for what it’s worth, to anyone considering buying Spanish property at this time, is not to. At least not as an investor. When asked, I’ve given the same advice for at least five years now, longer in fact. The Spanish land registry figures speak for themselves.
But I am witnessing a surprising demand at ground level, prospective buyers are queuing at the doors of estate agents, and the British are back in numbers, though most appear to be from far-away countries.
I’m not sure about the turning point, I’ve consistently said so, and I’m sure that most people, the experts, will probably miss it. I’m bound to, but my investment days are over anyway, and anywhere.
I find Spain an extremely attractive country and love living here, all of which could change if the UK votes in an eventual referendum to leave the EU, which I don’t think will happen but it’s not something I can ignore.
I’m not going to go on about the weather, although it is the main reason I’m in Spain, but I don’t want to unnecessarily upset people in the UK who are not as fortunate as myself; I seem to have succeeded in upsetting a couple of the failed expats who are quite rude with their posts. I’m really sorry about that, but I’m not responsible for the rain in the UK, honest.
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I thought that post was quite reasonable up to your last paragraph which lets you down, you haven’t upset us, but your previous provocative post earlier about witches clearly shows you are the one who is upset 🙄
We also like Spain if you search our posts, we also visit various friends who still live there, and there’s a lot to like which we’ve often said, however the truths need to be bared for the benefit of others. We don’t have a vested interest, we no longer have assets in Spain, but we use our knowledge of pitfalls based on our and others’ experiences to warn newbies, and I recommend people like Fuengi if someone really wants a change of lifestyle. 🙄
Quite happy to debate with those who want to, 🙄 politely!
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@Rocker wrote:
prospective buyers are queuing at the doors of estate agents, and the British are back in numbers, though most appear to be from far-away countries.
I think you must have had a wet dream Rocker. That is complete balls or my contacts in the property business are lying. Look on any agents or banks web sites and you will see the only stuff that’s moving are repo. properties reduced by 70%-80% and there is precious few of them. Cash buyers only since banks are bust and not lending and it’s likely to remain like that for years. It’s even happening in the UK as banks pay out so much in fines and compensating legal cases.
I also love Spain not the Costas or the tourist belts but the Spain where ordinary Spanish folk have lived for centuries untouched by the corrupting forces of greed. There are a few such spots if you know where to look. That said I would not want to live there.
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I’m all in favour of polite debates, but humour is sometimes misunderstood, so back to the subject under discussion.
Having lived in Spain for a while, and coming from a big family, and having lots of friends because of various organisation I’m a member of, I’m frequently asked for my opinion of Spain, and specifically the housing market.
This year saw a large increase in those requests for some reasons that I don’t want to speculate on. This is a recent one.
A lady from London I didn’t know got in touch via friends. She then visited Spain with the intention of buying a property, initially as a holiday home, but she was taking early retirement soon. I told her the truth and tried to put her off, but she was determined and totally against my advice bought an apartment by the sea, in a block built some ten years ago.
She visited the apartment in the summer and bought it only a couple of weeks later. I drove past the apartment just the other evening and saw that no lights were on in any of the 20 apartments but I could see several Se Vende signs even in the dark.
From our conversations I knew that the lady was desperate to escape London and her life there. I hope she likes her apartment in Spain, but she will already have lost money on it, and being possibly the only occupant of an apartment block in Spain in the winter would not appeal to me, even allowing for a few hours of sun on your terrace most days.
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@logan wrote:
@Rocker wrote:
prospective buyers are queuing at the doors of estate agents, and the British are back in numbers, though most appear to be from far-away countries.
I think you must have had a wet dream Rocker. That is complete balls or my contacts in the property business are lying. Look on any agents or banks web sites and you will see the only stuff that’s moving are repo. properties reduced by 70%-80% and there is precious few of them. Cash buyers only since banks are bust and not lending and it’s likely to remain like that for years. It’s even happening in the UK as banks pay out so much in fines and compensating legal cases.
I also love Spain not the Costas or the tourist belts but the Spain where ordinary Spanish folk have lived for centuries untouched by the corrupting forces of greed. There are a few such spots if you know where to look. That said I would not want to live there.
Having wet dreams and talking balls? And this from someone who doesn’t even know Spain and talks of property websites? It’s difficult to remain polite, but I will.
Those property websites are years old, I think you posted one the other day that hadn’t been updated for at least five years. And aren’t you the one who bought some of CAM’s preferential shares? For Christ’s sake don’t rely on the stuff you trawl up on the web, you’ll go skint.
If you want to get to know Spain, get on a train from where you live. I don’t post nonsense about France, which would be easy enough by trawling the web, and I suggest you stop posting nonsense about Spain.
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Rocker you are off your Rocker 😆 Throwing insults around isn’t going to make your estate agents stories believable…they have heard it all before on here…if anyone is upset it’s you. So the UK should keep on propping up the club med countries and pouring money into the brussels pot just to accommodate a few ex-pats who may (or may not) be worse off. Someone on TV said this morning that Spain cannot survive under the EMU., so what if Spain pulled out…now there’s a thought
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Rocker.
I know Spain very well. I was in business there for many years, lived there and now visit Spain for a few months of every year and own property.I have many business friends who I see on a regular basis and still have some investments in the country largely because liquidating them would cost more than the risk of loss. I have a good broad based knowledge of the property market and the current financial situation of the country. I can say with complete confidence the market has collapsed and unlikely to recover for some time. The majority of my Spanish friends are struggling and are on the edge of bankruptcy.
So please don’t make snide comments about forum posters you know nothing about or are never likely to.
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Bad news and good news! 🙄 😉
1st the bad, according to Kyero.com Spanish property prices fell 15.2% in Q3 nationally in Spain, a bigger fall than the 14.4% in Q2, and the 18th quarter of consecutive falls, so falling for 4.5 years and the experts got it wrong! Don’t forget unemployment rising still and expected to hit 26.9% next year 🙄 What turning point, these are facts 😉
2nd the good, lower property prices means property potentially easier to sell for good honest agents, provided that the 3 important factors are remembered when buying, location, location, location 🙄 😉
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Let me give you some advice, Logan, and there is nothing malicious in my intention. I noticed that you put a fellow member on your foe list, Marcus or something, because he or she had the temerity to post good news about Spain, which you obviously didn’t want to hear.
Apart from thinking that it’s a ridiculous thing to do for a supposedly educated man, almost on a par with insulting another member by using terms like wet dreams and balls, you were also wrong to do it in the first place.
That same Marcus posted something extremely important for a supposed investor like yourself, but you wouldn’t have read it because he’s on your foe list. To help you out, here’s what he posted.
The Spanish stock market has grown by 30% since June this year. Now, because of your foolishness, you missed that important bit of news. For an investor to miss out on something like that borders on the criminal.
Let me give you some more advice, from me then. I believe the turning point has been reached by the Spanish stock market, I’m late with the advice because the turning point came in June and I missed it. However, I believe it will keep on rising next year.
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@Rocker wrote:
Let me give you some advice, Logan, and there is nothing malicious in my intention. I noticed that you put a fellow member on your foe list, Marcus or something, because he or she had the temerity to post good news about Spain, which you obviously didn’t want to hear.
Apart from thinking that it’s a ridiculous thing to do for a supposedly educated man, almost on a par with insulting another member by using terms like wet dreams and balls, you were also wrong to do it in the first place.
That same Marcus posted something extremely important for a supposed investor like yourself, but you wouldn’t have read it because he’s on your foe list. To help you out, here’s what he posted.
The Spanish stock market has grown by 30% since June this year. Now, because of your foolishness, you missed that important bit of news. For an investor to miss out on something like that borders on the criminal.
Let me give you some more advice, from me then. I believe the turning point has been reached by the Spanish stock market, I’m late with the advice because the turning point came in June and I missed it. However, I believe it will keep on rising next year.
You are gonna have to stop latching on to posts that seem positive. no way has the spanish stocks climbed 30%. Do you know anything about shares…did you know that in 2007 the IBEX was over 15,000…whats the turning point…it goes up a couple of hundred and falls couple of hundred 🙄
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@Rocker wrote:
Let me give you some advice, Logan, and there is nothing malicious in my intention. I noticed that you put a fellow member on your foe list, Marcus or something, because he or she had the temerity to post good news about Spain, which you obviously didn’t want to hear.
Marcos posts only in response to arguments that do not suit his point of view and are uninteresting, with little stimulation or knowledge of the subject other than links which he believes supports his argument. He is also just wrong and boring. BTW I have the liberty to decide whom I exchange conversation with and you sometimes have some points worth reading.
Apart from thinking that it’s a ridiculous thing to do for a supposedly educated man, almost on a par with insulting another member by using terms like wet dreams and balls, you were also wrong to do it in the first place.You can’t take a joke. 🙂
That same Marcus posted something extremely important for a supposed investor like yourself, but you wouldn’t have read it because he’s on your foe list. To help you out, here’s what he posted.
Give me a break, I have my own financial advisers whom I talk with everyday.
The Spanish stock market has grown by 30% since June this year. Now, because of your foolishness, you missed that important bit of news. For an investor to miss out on something like that borders on the criminal.How prey do you know I have missed out on the Ibex rise?
Let me give you some more advice, from me then. I believe the turning point has been reached by the Spanish stock market, I’m late with the advice because the turning point came in June and I missed it. However, I believe it will keep on rising next year.More balls, nobody can predict that. If it were possible we would all be billionaires.
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What’s borring with Marcos is that he only spouts his “positive” news links and no sense in being balanced. Like when a car company decides to hire a few hundred and then totally disregards all of the other lay offs that has taken place the last couple of months. He talks up some small start up internet company like it’s bigger than Google when it has won some silly award in some competition. People gets annoyed with his obvious positive bias about real estate in Spain. He is the stereo type sales person a lot of customers has been hussled by.
Most of us are here because we enjoy something about Spain but most us are not blind either.
No factors except that prices have fallen quite a lot points us to this being anywhere close to a turning points.
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@ Logan.
To coin what seems to be your favourite phrase, I think you’re the one talking balls, along with your supposed financial advisers and your sudden assertion that you now own property in Spain and live there for several months every year. If you look back over just a few of your own posts, you’ll see just how ridiculous you are being.
Funny place, this cyberspace; Corporals become Colonels and people buy a few of the silliest bank shares ever to come on the market and now profess to be financial wizards.
And bragging is not a nice human trait, whether in cyberspace or in real life.
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You Rocker have behaved in this way before on this forum then you disappeared for a while. You enjoy making personal attacks on members particularly if they have achieved some success in life and moved on from an dead end expat existence in Spain..
I rarely write about myself on here and did it this time in response to your stupid remarks which I should have realised was your sole intention of continuing the personal slurs.
I see no point whatever making any further post on this thread or any future exchange with you.
Happy Christmas and a prosperous New Year to all forum members.
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I thank everyone for taking part in a lengthy discussion on what I consider an important topic. I suppose it was inevitable that personal observations got in the way at times, but that’s the nature of the beast, the internet.
Having survived the Mayan’s prediction, I join in in wishing everyone a merry festive season.
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First, I totally agree with Ardun’s post above about those links to small start-ups which often hijack any thread, second, Rocker sometimes if you dish it out to others then expect it back. Also, IMO Rocker you do have a vested interest in talking things up because you bought in Spain over 12 years ago and still live there I believe in the Valencia area, and by your own admission you are good friends with one of the largest estate agents in the Costa Blanca.
Now, I’m not having a go at you for doing that but just pointing it out! 🙄
Several of us who warn others on here do so because we’ve had problems ourselves with property in Spain and we hope they don’t fall into the same trap, plus, the underlying dire situation that Spain finds itself in is not going to end suddenly, so people need to take care! 🙄
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From today’s New York Times. I think DB posted something about this too.
Car Factories Offer Hope for Spanish Industry and Workers
http://www.nytimes.com/2012/12/28/business/global/car-factories-offer-hope-for-spanish-industry-and-workers.html?emc=tnt&tntemail1=y&_r=0 -
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Various indicators have turned positive in April, whether it be the trade blance, the fall in unemployment (7 times that of April last year), car sales up, the number of new companies the highest in 5 years…
Now it is possible that it’s just a blip, something artificial caused by government subsidies…
But reading a doomster webpage this weekend, I came across a comment contrasting Spain and Norway. The commentator was sneering at the Spanish – look he said, the price of beer is only 2 euros – we have to pay nearly 10 euros in Norway.
Where to begin?
Already we’ve seen a 38.7% increase in Norwegian buyers of property in 2012 over 2011. We’re now seeing a lot more flights being put on by Norwegian operators to Spain, from northen countries like Norway and Germany.
Now it’s true that Norway is not a populous country, but Russia is. And guess what, their tourist numbers are increasing too. And the price of their beer is cheaper.
What’s going to stop the next bubble? -
The Spanish property bubble was not caused by foreigners buying Spanish property. It was caused by Spanish buying Spanish property. There will not be another bubble unless the Spanish economy takes off and banks start lending like maniacs again. That is not going to happen while Spain has the euro. Which is a good thing. With a bit of luck the Spanish economy might continue to rebalance away from construction, more jobs might become available, and people will have access to cheap housing.
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Well let’s hope it happens sooner than later. I travel a fair bit around Spain, and get to talk to people from all walks of life, and the impression I get is this can’t go on for much longer without some sort of social upheaval. Spaniards will put up with much more than the French, but when parents can’t clothe and feed their kids, I quite understand why they might get angry with the state….. 🙁
I don’t think the Spanish will put up with another 5 years of this. A couple at best. What is most worrying is that the Government shows no signs of being up to the job.
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Mark, it’s such a massive problem in Spain, the numbers whether property for sale, unemployment, indebtedness of businesses, banks etc etc I just can’t see it happening ‘sooner than later’, it’s awful really, especially for families and millions of the population. It wouldn’t take much more to cause civil unrest in a big way, and you are right in saying the government is not up to the job.
All Governments whether UK or Eurozone appear to talk the talk to get in office but within a year or two renege on their word, lose control and detach themselves from the masses.
With all the evidence available to the contrary, who can really see a turning point, guestimates are anything, 5,10,20 years or more, all countries are reliant on each other, most are in a mess, and levying people’s accounts and assets could become the norm. There will always be snippets of good news, but the real problems are huge still. 🙄
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Strange to see this old thread resurrected. Have I changed my stance six months later?
No, and here’s why. Having consistently tried to put off people from buying in Spain at this time, I now have no choice but to make a serious effort to help a close relative who is coming to buy a house in Spain no matter what I say.
So, instead of looking at nebulous and out of date websites like Kyero, Fotocasa and Idealista, I’ve gone to work at local ground level to see what is available, something I haven’t done for a long time.
I’m finding it hard and disheartening. Prices have definitely stopped falling but the market is littered with repossessions and utter rubbish, and even they have stabilised in price.
But there are very few decent properties for sale, and definitely not at a reduced price, if anything, you may have to make an offer over asking price to secure such a decent property.
If you step down from the clouds of property speculators and others making assumptions on the property market, the reality is that the bottom appears to have been reached.
If I manage to find a suitable house for my relative, I doubt whether he will be able to get any reduction on the asking price.
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We’re now seeing a lot more flights being put on by Norwegian operators to Spain
To illustrate, this news has just turned up – Norwegian airlines to open a new Tenerife base, creating 1,600 jobs.
If you need to sell a place in Tenerife, may be an idea to register with a Norwegian estate agent?
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Rocker, I know you will consider me gloomy but I’m trying to understand your thinking here.
We all know if there is a huge crop of a particular harvest that prices generally fall for consumers, so as has been mentioned by Acuna in Madrid, Spain’s total property stock for sale has in fact risen by 250,000 to 2.25 million. The law of average would kick in and put further downward pressure on prices, I can’t see any other way, and, Sareb is supposed to be offloading another 89,000 of their toxic properties on to the market this year at huge discounts undercutting similar properties already on the market. Now, experts have predicted at least 10 years to whittle through the excess, Mark has mentioned 20 years at 100,000 per annum (now risen to 22.5 years) , and as others have pointed out before, more properties still come to the market as others sell.
It’s very likely that properties you know have ‘stabilised’, but this could be down to ‘owners’ mortgage debts being larger than the property values, many simply will not reduce further because they can’t.
I can’t for the life of me understand why so may economists and think tanks, ratings agencies etc, are saying pretty much the same thing, that prices will fall further, ok you live there maybe they don’t, but we also did our own homework on the CDS when we visited which backs up most of the above facts. 🙄
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@ Angie.
Like you and many others I’ve been predicting price falls for the past five years or so and we’ve all been proved right, not that it was difficult to come to our conclusion given the state of the Spanish property market.
I posted about a ‘turning point’ last year and there were some minor indications to support my optimism at the time. I got disheartened by Cyprus and the foreign assets debacle, and thought the turning point had been put back for a while.
But during the past week I’ve been researching the local market for a close relative, and have discovered that proper houses for sale, with the emphasis on the ‘proper’, are few and far between and the prices of those have stopped falling.
Before actually knocking on doors and viewing properties, I looked at the before mentioned property portals, on which the absent experts base their numbers, and found them to be less than useless. The biggest one is showing properties from estate agents who went out of business years ago. They show mortgage calculations that are plain silly for non existent mortgages.
I’m just saying it as I find it.
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@angie wrote:
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It’s very likely that properties you know have ‘stabilised’, but this could be down to ‘owners’ mortgage debts being larger than the property values, many simply will not reduce further because they can’t.
…Asking prices for highly lettable property might not fall below a certain level because the owners might prefer to let their property rather than sell it at a huge discount. However there is an obvious catch here, since if everyone starts doing this then rents will fall as well. In fact an agent recently confirmed that this is precisely what is happening in her particular area – the market is now flooded with rentals from owners who want to sell but refuse to drop their asking price.
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There are some clips on youtube with Tomas Sowell talking about just this scenario. Where he explains that when stuff don’t sell or that when people can’t sell below a certain price what happens and he used his own house as an example which he tried to sell during 2009 I think. People will happily rent it out for below their own costs just to get some money comming in.
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There is not green shoots in Spain yet. Of course there are some business successes, always will be in any country 🙄 However, a couple of stories of a bar being full and people with full trolly’s in Hipercor doesn’t mean thing.
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