Tinsa Index – October

[AnonymousParticipant]

Published yesterday:

http://www.tinsa.es/down/IMIE/2010/IMIE_10_2010.pdf

General -4.6% (Sep -5.0%)
Costas -6.7% (Sep -8,7%)

Peak (Dec 2007) to Present
General -21%
Costas -25%

Not a lot to read into one months set of figures. Market seems to be in a pretty steady but slow downward spiral.

[AnonymousParticipant]

The National Statistics Institute says that sales fell by 4.1% in September, in annual terms.

36,046 homes were sold over the month, of which 50.4% were new properties and the rest resale.

Resale property sales were up in September this year compared to last by 1.9%, while new sales were down by 9.4%.

61% of the sales were in just four regions, Andalucía, Madrid, Cataluña and Valencia, while Cantabria and Murcia were the most active areas per capita.

The data brings new doubts on the recovery of the real estate sector.

(typicallyspanish website)

Interesting that according to the NSI, the number of actual sales (36,000) were equally divided between new properties and resales. But percentage-wise, the number of resales are increasing and new sales are falling.
I wonder if this will be a continuing trend. I also question whether this is because of increasing mistrust of anything newly built.

[AnonymousParticipant]

First and foremost Charlie, given their record with house prices, I’m reluctant to believe any figures the NSI publish.

But percentage-wise, the number of resales are increasing and new sales are falling.
I wonder if this will be a continuing trend. I also question whether this is because of increasing mistrust of anything newly built.

My guess is that there are a number of factors behind this, the mistrust you state being one of them. The key factor I think is that a good deal the number of ‘new’ sales being recorded in recent years were down to off plan sales which were made earlier, say 06 or 07 before the crisis hit. These were only registered as sales on completion.

As the crisis drags on there are less of these coming to completion thus they make us a smaller percentage of the overall market. Resales, which IMO have remained steady of the last year or so thus form a higher percentage of the overall market.

[Fuengi (Andrew)Participant]

@brianc_li wrote:

My guess is that there are a number of factors behind this, the mistrust you state being one of them. The key factor I think is that a good deal the number of ‘new’ sales being recorded in recent years were down to off plan sales which were made earlier, say 06 or 07 before the crisis hit. These were only registered as sales on completion.

As the crisis drags on there are less of these coming to completion thus they make us a smaller percentage of the overall market. Resales, which IMO have remained steady of the last year or so thus form a higher percentage of the overall market.

your quite right (or better said, I agree 🙂 )

It is also one of the reasons we are seeing ‘spikes’ in the statistics. This was reflected in Augusts figures.

[katySpectator]

Sales were down 4.1% to Sept. last year which is bad as sales were almost nil in andalucía last Sept…yet they were up 30% in August a time when everything is traditionally closed! You couldn’t make it up could you….well you could. All year there have been reports that British tourists to Spain are figures are recovering. This week the President of the andalucian Tourist Board said in London that British tourism is down 9.9% from Jan to Sept.

The UK is as bad, last week I read in the Telegraph, UK house prices down…two days later, same paper, house prices are up. 🙄

[AnonymousParticipant]

In UK, the prices maybe down outside the M25. In London they are not .

[loganParticipant]

There are lies, dam lies, statistics and what estate agents, politicians and bankers tell you. I believe none of it. There are other ways to discover the real situation but it involves hours and hours trawling through data accessible from many primary sources. Some folks get a 6 figure salary for doing it. Government statistics are simply ignored and they should be by any other serious investor.

[adiepParticipant]

@brianc_li wrote:

Published yesterday:

http://www.tinsa.es/down/IMIE/2010/IMIE_10_2010.pdf

General -4.6% (Sep -5.0%)
Costas -6.7% (Sep -8,7%)

Peak (Dec 2007) to Present
General -21%
Costas -25%

Not a lot to read into one months set of figures. Market seems to be in a pretty steady but slow downward spiral.

You could say its “steady”, personally I would say its frozen. Banks not lending, many sellers in negative equity if they sell…

[AnonymousParticipant]

Tinsa index in figures:

[Author]

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