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Published today.
http://www.tinsa.es/down/IMIE/2010/IMIE_01_2010.pdf
General Year on Year -5.5% (Dec -6.6%)
Costas -7.1% (Dec -7.6%)So prices are falling, they are now back to 2004/5 levels, but the rate of fall is slowing.
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Hi
BrianAlways look forward to getting your monthly Tinsa report, we know that this is about the most reliable source of information but is still far from being definitive.
So just looking at the Costas, down 7.1% on the year to January, I suppose that given the year to Jan 2009 was down 12.66% this is quite an improvement.Are you any nearer to putting your toe in the water? What do think the index will be at next Jan (million dollar question) my guess -5%
S -
Hi
BrianAlways look forward to getting your monthly Tinsa report, we know that this is about the most reliable source of information but is still far from being definitive.
So just looking at the Costas, down 7.1% on the year to January, I suppose that given the year to Jan 2009 was down 12.66% this is quite an improvement.Are you any nearer to putting your toe in the water? What do think the index will be at next Jan (million dollar question) my guess -5%
S -
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No nearer yet. Was over for a couple of weeks over Christmas/New Year and saw some places. Mostly still asking unrealistic sums. There was one place we really did like but unfortunately was it unsuitable. It had steep steps, we have elderly relatives. Going back again in April to look at a different part of the CDS.
So just looking at the Costas, down 7.1% on the year to January, I suppose that given the year to Jan 2009 was down 12.66% this is quite an improvement.
Not sure I’d agree with that. The fall last year January was in the midst of the the banking crisis. Many were predicting imminent global financial catastrope at the time. Set against the background now of a more stable financial system and mostly recovering European economies it is arguably worse. You also have to take into account that this years fall is on top of last years one whereas last years was against a reported rise of 2.7% in Jan 08.
As to what will happen it is anyones guess. Personally I think some substantial falls are still due.
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No nearer yet. Was over for a couple of weeks over Christmas/New Year and saw some places. Mostly still asking unrealistic sums. There was one place we really did like but unfortunately was it unsuitable. It had steep steps, we have elderly relatives. Going back again in April to look at a different part of the CDS.
So just looking at the Costas, down 7.1% on the year to January, I suppose that given the year to Jan 2009 was down 12.66% this is quite an improvement.
Not sure I’d agree with that. The fall last year January was in the midst of the the banking crisis. Many were predicting imminent global financial catastrope at the time. Set against the background now of a more stable financial system and mostly recovering European economies it is arguably worse. You also have to take into account that this years fall is on top of last years one whereas last years was against a reported rise of 2.7% in Jan 08.
As to what will happen it is anyones guess. Personally I think some substantial falls are still due.
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So if you compound the 12.66% and the 7.1% from the hundred the decline has been around 19% in two years, index at 2537 (Jan 08) 2059 (Jan 10).
Better than many have led us to believe.
We all know that prices have fallen by up to 30% on some developments so maybe the nicer property has fallen less than 19%
Only a thought.
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So if you compound the 12.66% and the 7.1% from the hundred the decline has been around 19% in two years, index at 2537 (Jan 08) 2059 (Jan 10).
Better than many have led us to believe.
We all know that prices have fallen by up to 30% on some developments so maybe the nicer property has fallen less than 19%
Only a thought.
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@brianc_li wrote:
Mine will be a lifestyle purchase rather than an investment.
This sort of statement is very odd to me. Do you mean you will buy a property knowing you will loose money? Like a car or a boat? Property is surely not a ‘lifestyle purchase’ unless you intend to live in it or make it a home.
With the costs of buying into your ‘lifestyle’, then maintaining it, visiting it, value depreciation, loss of capital return, selling or or even dying, it’s a very costly ‘life’ you will have.
Why not simply have your lifestyle without the hassle or expense of owning a millstone? Nice hotels for instance or a comfortable rented villa, or even charter a boat!!
Meanwhile your capital earns you a reasonable hassle free income elsewhere. 😀 -
@brianc_li wrote:
Mine will be a lifestyle purchase rather than an investment.
This sort of statement is very odd to me. Do you mean you will buy a property knowing you will loose money? Like a car or a boat? Property is surely not a ‘lifestyle purchase’ unless you intend to live in it or make it a home.
With the costs of buying into your ‘lifestyle’, then maintaining it, visiting it, value depreciation, loss of capital return, selling or or even dying, it’s a very costly ‘life’ you will have.
Why not simply have your lifestyle without the hassle or expense of owning a millstone? Nice hotels for instance or a comfortable rented villa, or even charter a boat!!
Meanwhile your capital earns you a reasonable hassle free income elsewhere. 😀 -
logan:
It doesn’t seem odd to me. Although I bought 4 years ago & have lost money, oddly enough I’m very happy.
The point for me is that it’s mine. It’s my furniture, my decoration, my clothes, books, dvds etc.
I don’t want to rent some-one elses property, I don’t want to spend hours trying to find a nice place to rent or a hotel, turning up & finding it’s rubbish, I’ve done that too many times. Now, I can decide on a Friday morning to travel, get a flight that evening, as I’m only 20 minutes from Gatwick, no hold luggage, just a small bag because I’ve got everything I need already in the property.
This of course, comes with a price, I accept that.
I didn’t buy a property in Spain as an ‘investment’, because it isn’t & I believe never was an investment opportunity, with all the costs involved in buying & selling. I bought because I like the place I bought in.
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logan:
It doesn’t seem odd to me. Although I bought 4 years ago & have lost money, oddly enough I’m very happy.
The point for me is that it’s mine. It’s my furniture, my decoration, my clothes, books, dvds etc.
I don’t want to rent some-one elses property, I don’t want to spend hours trying to find a nice place to rent or a hotel, turning up & finding it’s rubbish, I’ve done that too many times. Now, I can decide on a Friday morning to travel, get a flight that evening, as I’m only 20 minutes from Gatwick, no hold luggage, just a small bag because I’ve got everything I need already in the property.
This of course, comes with a price, I accept that.
I didn’t buy a property in Spain as an ‘investment’, because it isn’t & I believe never was an investment opportunity, with all the costs involved in buying & selling. I bought because I like the place I bought in.
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Rob
I echo everything you have said, I do however hope that in say 5-10 years my property would have appreciated in value and at worst will be worth no less than I paid for it. Our investmant only pays dividends in enjoyment at the moment.
I bought a year ago and reckon my property has dropped between 10-15%, it had dropped 20% prior to us buying it so I didn’t get the full force of the falling dagger.I think when we look back over time the Tinsa valuations won’t have been far out.
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Rob
I echo everything you have said, I do however hope that in say 5-10 years my property would have appreciated in value and at worst will be worth no less than I paid for it. Our investmant only pays dividends in enjoyment at the moment.
I bought a year ago and reckon my property has dropped between 10-15%, it had dropped 20% prior to us buying it so I didn’t get the full force of the falling dagger.I think when we look back over time the Tinsa valuations won’t have been far out.
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@brianc_li wrote:
Why do you even think of buying then?
Mine will be a lifestyle purchase rather than an investment. Capital gain or loss is a secondary consideration. If I find the right property, in the right place, at the right price I’ll buy. Trouble is that at present good value is hard to find.
Hi, I agree with you on buying for lifestyle. We have been looking for over two years since we lost a tidy sum to an illegal no build.
Have also to agree that there is a lot of rubbish around.
We have eventually found what we are looking for if the paperwork stacks up.
It is really hard to find properties fresh to market but it is worth the effort.
Hope you find what you are looking for -
@brianc_li wrote:
Why do you even think of buying then?
Mine will be a lifestyle purchase rather than an investment. Capital gain or loss is a secondary consideration. If I find the right property, in the right place, at the right price I’ll buy. Trouble is that at present good value is hard to find.
Hi, I agree with you on buying for lifestyle. We have been looking for over two years since we lost a tidy sum to an illegal no build.
Have also to agree that there is a lot of rubbish around.
We have eventually found what we are looking for if the paperwork stacks up.
It is really hard to find properties fresh to market but it is worth the effort.
Hope you find what you are looking for -
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Katy
Have a real look at Brians link if you get time, the graphs and data, this is not make believe, there is substance to these reports, we who are ‘on the ground’ need to temper this with what we experience locally.
You may have to eat humble pie and your hat whilst wiping egg from your face. 😆 and you may not!!
Steve
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Katy
Have a real look at Brians link if you get time, the graphs and data, this is not make believe, there is substance to these reports, we who are ‘on the ground’ need to temper this with what we experience locally.
You may have to eat humble pie and your hat whilst wiping egg from your face. 😆 and you may not!!
Steve
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@Stevev6 wrote:
Katy
Have a real look at Brians link if you get time, the graphs and data, this is not make believe, there is substance to these reports, we who are ‘on the ground’ need to temper this with what we experience locally.
You may have to eat humble pie and your hat whilst wiping egg from your face. 😆 and you may not!!
Steve
Mark is a very smart man and he uses tongue-in-chick many times.
The banks are sitting on huge amount of properties that they are going to dump on the market soon, the un-employment is increasing, the number of unsold increases. This are all signs that the real fall in prices has not eve started.
Of course this refers to the coastal area where 99% of the members-owners have bought.
The reason TINSA index is “improving” is due to the fact that almost nobody buys and nobody sells so prices are stationary…
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@Stevev6 wrote:
Katy
Have a real look at Brians link if you get time, the graphs and data, this is not make believe, there is substance to these reports, we who are ‘on the ground’ need to temper this with what we experience locally.
You may have to eat humble pie and your hat whilst wiping egg from your face. 😆 and you may not!!
Steve
Mark is a very smart man and he uses tongue-in-chick many times.
The banks are sitting on huge amount of properties that they are going to dump on the market soon, the un-employment is increasing, the number of unsold increases. This are all signs that the real fall in prices has not eve started.
Of course this refers to the coastal area where 99% of the members-owners have bought.
The reason TINSA index is “improving” is due to the fact that almost nobody buys and nobody sells so prices are stationary…
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Flos
Should really ignore your post but won’t
[qMark is a very smart man and he uses tongue-in-chick many times.uote]
Creep, you wont be banned then![/qThe banks are sitting on huge amount of properties that they are going to dump on the market soonuote]
Tell me why now
[qThe reason TINSA index is “improving” is due to the fact that almost nobody buys and nobody sells so prices are stationary…uote]
Lots of people on the CDS don’t have a mortgage so no they don’t have to sell, equally there are a fair number of distress sales but not from the banks yet.As I’ve said before the banks will try and hold on to there ‘assets’ as long as possible, they inturn will get support from the Bank of Spain and they inturn will get support from the EU.
Greece will be bailed out within the next couple of weeks.
S[/quote]
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Flos
Should really ignore your post but won’t
[qMark is a very smart man and he uses tongue-in-chick many times.uote]
Creep, you wont be banned then![/qThe banks are sitting on huge amount of properties that they are going to dump on the market soonuote]
Tell me why now
[qThe reason TINSA index is “improving” is due to the fact that almost nobody buys and nobody sells so prices are stationary…uote]
Lots of people on the CDS don’t have a mortgage so no they don’t have to sell, equally there are a fair number of distress sales but not from the banks yet.As I’ve said before the banks will try and hold on to there ‘assets’ as long as possible, they inturn will get support from the Bank of Spain and they inturn will get support from the EU.
Greece will be bailed out within the next couple of weeks.
S[/quote]
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@Stevev6 wrote:
Flos
Should really ignore your post but won’t
Creep, you wont be banned then!
[/qThe banks are sitting on huge amount of properties that they are going to dump on the market soonuote]
Tell me why now
[qThe reason TINSA index is “improving” is due to the fact that almost nobody buys and nobody sells so prices are stationary…uote]
Lots of people on the CDS don’t have a mortgage so no they don’t have to sell, equally there are a fair number of distress sales but not from the banks yet.As I’ve said before the banks will try and hold on to there ‘assets’ as long as possible, they inturn will get support from the Bank of Spain and they inturn will get support from the EU.
Greece will be bailed out within the next couple of weeks.
S
You may say I am dreamer but I am not the only one. 😀
Sweet dreams Stevie…
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@Stevev6 wrote:
Flos
Should really ignore your post but won’t
Creep, you wont be banned then!
[/qThe banks are sitting on huge amount of properties that they are going to dump on the market soonuote]
Tell me why now
[qThe reason TINSA index is “improving” is due to the fact that almost nobody buys and nobody sells so prices are stationary…uote]
Lots of people on the CDS don’t have a mortgage so no they don’t have to sell, equally there are a fair number of distress sales but not from the banks yet.As I’ve said before the banks will try and hold on to there ‘assets’ as long as possible, they inturn will get support from the Bank of Spain and they inturn will get support from the EU.
Greece will be bailed out within the next couple of weeks.
S
You may say I am dreamer but I am not the only one. 😀
Sweet dreams Stevie…
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OK some of you holiday homers don’t care about money,economics and the market and just want to own something of your own. That’s fine, good job we are all different. Going to the same dull place every year, year in, year out, just because you own it is not my idea of a happy holiday but hey, each to their own.
Everywhere gets dull after a while.
For property prices to rise in Spain someone has to buy in substantial numbers. Who are these buyers and where do the come from? Unemployment in Spain is currently 20% and rising. Public sector jobs are being cut to reduce the deficit and incomes reduced. That creates a crisis of confidence likely to last into the medium/long term.
Then cast your eye over the state of the economies of all other potential buyer nations. UK? I don’t think so. The economy is on the floor unemployment up and the exchange rate likely to remain poor. Germany is perhaps the only brighter spot but their traditional cautious approach is likely to choke off any potential market.
In other words it aint gonna happen. Prices will continue to drop until it does, year on year 7 to 10%
Banks will continue their contribution to falling prices by off loading repos at huge discounts to the few speculators left that are willing to take a risky punt.
My best guess is 3 to 5 years before the market recovers. Then it will simply stabilise and gains stagnate to a small 3-5%. -
OK some of you holiday homers don’t care about money,economics and the market and just want to own something of your own. That’s fine, good job we are all different. Going to the same dull place every year, year in, year out, just because you own it is not my idea of a happy holiday but hey, each to their own.
Everywhere gets dull after a while.
For property prices to rise in Spain someone has to buy in substantial numbers. Who are these buyers and where do the come from? Unemployment in Spain is currently 20% and rising. Public sector jobs are being cut to reduce the deficit and incomes reduced. That creates a crisis of confidence likely to last into the medium/long term.
Then cast your eye over the state of the economies of all other potential buyer nations. UK? I don’t think so. The economy is on the floor unemployment up and the exchange rate likely to remain poor. Germany is perhaps the only brighter spot but their traditional cautious approach is likely to choke off any potential market.
In other words it aint gonna happen. Prices will continue to drop until it does, year on year 7 to 10%
Banks will continue their contribution to falling prices by off loading repos at huge discounts to the few speculators left that are willing to take a risky punt.
My best guess is 3 to 5 years before the market recovers. Then it will simply stabilise and gains stagnate to a small 3-5%. -
Couldn’t agree more Logan, there just aren’t going to be enough buyers to get Spain out of this mess, who’s got the money now to invest?
The average UK pensioner has savings of £8.5k stg according to a recent survey, they’re too worried about helping their children buy UK homes.
The ‘boom’ days are over for Spanish property for a long time, figures of between 1-2 million unsold homes are not going to be bought by Brits.
Most Brits surveyed who said they’d move abroad said they wanted to go to Aus, NZ, Canada, USA! 🙄
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Couldn’t agree more Logan, there just aren’t going to be enough buyers to get Spain out of this mess, who’s got the money now to invest?
The average UK pensioner has savings of £8.5k stg according to a recent survey, they’re too worried about helping their children buy UK homes.
The ‘boom’ days are over for Spanish property for a long time, figures of between 1-2 million unsold homes are not going to be bought by Brits.
Most Brits surveyed who said they’d move abroad said they wanted to go to Aus, NZ, Canada, USA! 🙄
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