- This topic has 16 replies, 7 voices, and was last updated 14 years, 7 months ago by
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Published this morning.
http://www.tinsa.es/down/IMIE/2010/IMIE_02_2010.pdf
General YoY -5.5% (Jan -5.5%)
Costas YoY -8.2% (Jan -7.1%)Can’t read too much into one months figures but it looks like any route back to recovery could have now stalled.
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Peak (Dec 2007) to present on the Costas is -22%.
I wouldn’t dispute that there is still a way to fall however I wouldn’t be as bold as you. My guess is that they’ll level off at around -35% (Allowing for inflation this would be the equivalent of approx. -45%), somewhere back to 2004 levels.
As always there will be huge variations between sought after and less desirable areas.
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@brianc_li wrote:
Peak (Dec 2007) to present on the Costas is -22%.
I wouldn’t dispute that there is still a way to fall however I wouldn’t be as bold as you. My guess is that they’ll level off at around -35% (Allowing for inflation this would be the equivalent of approx. -45%), somewhere back to 2004 levels.
.Who do you think is going to buy in the near/medium future? Definitely not the Brits as the Pound won’t come up soon. I have doubts that Germans will.
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The upper end of the market will always be there. It is rarely effected by economic downturns.
There will certainly be lifestyle buyers, probably more so from the Eurozone than the UK. I’m one such person. Likewise there will always be a domestic market. You can see the impact of this in the Tinsa figures where the big cities are holding up better than the Costas.
I’m not saying there isn’t pain to come for those who own property in Spain. All we are talking about here is to what degree.
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@brianc_li wrote:
The upper end of the market will always be there. It is rarely effected by economic downturns.
There will certainly be lifestyle buyers, probably more so from the Eurozone than the UK. I’m one such person. Likewise there will always be a domestic market. You can see the impact of this in the Tinsa figures where the big cities are holding up better than the Costas.
I’m not saying there isn’t pain to come for those who own property in Spain. All we are talking about here is to what degree.
I was writing about the Costa tourist properties… Of course Spanish families will move to/from Madrid, Valencia, Barcelona and other major cities.
But who is going to buy non-upper end non-cities apartment/houses? There are hundreds of thousands of them…
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I agree Brian, there are spanish around looking for coastal home and in all price ranges. What I see happening is they are looking for properties in the cheaper urbs but with the best views or higher floors, so the pick of the bunch. In every urb there are price brackets depending on desireabilty.
All nationalities of they can afford ot, want a lifestyle to include a home in the sun to either use winter time or retire too.
Top end villas in many cases have come down, putting them into the purchase level of more people.
Tinsa will have dropped as our properties are on there now too 😀 and I can confidently tell you that anything actually selling is about 50% of the asking price it was 2-3 years ago, higher in some cases when owners insisted on their price. (and before anyone shouts me down Im only looking at our figures – other agents may find differently!)
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@brianc_li wrote:
Quite a lot of Spanish city dwellers aspire to having their own place by the coast. There will always be a market there. Likewise as prices become more affordabe there are buyers in the Eurozone. Not enough to take up the slack of a million plus unsold units I’ll grant but they are there.
That’s good news. It would be sad to have holidays surrounded by ghost urbanizations with derelict and abandoned buildings.
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There is going to be a lot of derelict and abandoned hotels soon. Bank has foreclosed on Las Dunas which was a really nice 5* hotel but they couldn’t find a buyer. Los Monteros 5* closed. Don Carlos 5* having problems. Spanish won’t buy into all the urbanisations built for ex-pats.
As for the top end of the market, seems they are nearly all on sale. La Zagaleta must be deserted 😆
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Trouble is with the Hotels is they come with such baggage as the social security unpaid and other debts which puts buyers off as you cannot get to the bottom of it!
There is someone interested in Dunas, but even the selling banks cant decide exactly what they are selling or what the actual debts are!!
Zagaleta was always a much too big estate.
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@brianc_li wrote:
Quite a lot of Spanish city dwellers aspire to having their own place by the coast.
Aspiration perhaps but with the Spanish economy likely to contract further, unemployment increase as public sector jobs are cut to reduce the deficit, I think it unlikely a market recovery will begin by this route.
The Spanish market has traditionally been fuelled by other Europeans. That is now dead in the water with employment uncertainty in EU and economic contraction. British exchange rates make any purchase prohibitive.
Second homes are a luxury everyone can afford to do without and they will.
Add to that the hopeless over supply situation on the Spanish Costa’s causing plummeting values. The continuing attitude of the Spanish government seeing property as a tax cash cow. Poor regulation and corrupt local government.
In my opinion the thing is broken for a generation or at least until the world economy recovers big time. The two periods may well be the same. -
For those who have missed it here are Mark’s take on the figures:
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Mark wrote: “As always, I need to point out that Tinsa’s figures are based on their own valuations, not actual transaction prices. They may be, probably are, quite wide of the mark. Nevertheless, they are interesting in what they reveal about trends, and the valuations used by banks for mortgage lending purposes.”
Wide of the mark is an under statement. 22 % decrease on the coast is a hopelessly out of date figure. Banks cling on to Tinsa valuations for their asset values on balance sheets.
Who would buy anything today on the coast that is only reduced from it’s original price by 22%? Only a complete mug. -
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