Tinsa Index – August

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    • #55193

      Published today.


      For the costas now showing a drop of -10.3% year on year. If you add that to last years -8.3% figure they are now showing a drop of some 17% from peak values.

      My guess is that this is a ´lagging´ indicator. That the true figure is closer to 25%. There are, of course great variations depending on the area.

    • #94104

      Also for interest valuers are starting to use market comparables in their approach.

      Instead of just measuring up and applying the coefficient of the area to the build size, they are starting to call neighbouring sales boards to get the asking prices and searching on the internet

      Still not exact science as asking prices and actual sales prices are quite a way off, but a step in the right direction

      Now, when they bring in online searches to land registry AND the under declaration is totally stamped out, then it will paint a much clearer picture

    • #94106

      Inez, I know this is one of those ´how long is a piece of string?´ questions but do you have any feel for the gap between asking and selling prices at present?

      Earlier this year (I think it was) Martin Dell on Kyero mooted a figure of 30%. Is that still in the ballpark?

    • #94107

      I know some will deny it but I think sales are so scarce it is impossible to get any true figure.

    • #94114

      For more on the lastest tinsa index

    • #94115

      Hi Brian, what I am seeing and this is personal experience only, is around 30% off asking prices, and 40-50% off 06/07 prices and what people paid for their properties.

      Few heavier falls but the average is as stated.

    • #94126

      Edward Hugh´s facebook blog on the index……

      Well, as I tend to say, there are lies, damn lies, and then there are press releases. Now according to the latest one from Spanish valuers TINSA – “The general IMIE (Spanish Real Estate Market Index) continued to soften its year-on-year fall in August, recording 8.9% compared to 9.2% the previous month.”

      Well, this IS interesting isn’t it. It appears that things are getting better. Well no, actually, they aren’t. This data point is a complete statistical anomoly, based on the fact that prices have now been falling for more than 12 consecutive months, in such cases year on year data becomes virtually meaningless.

      Indeed the most valid measure now is the P2P one I have introduced (peak to present) since using this we can see how far the indicator moves around. See next chart.

      In absolute terms, the index continued to fall from the figure recorded in July 1983 to that of August 1964. In terms of accumulated rates, the general index dropped 14% from the maximum recorded in December 2007

      In this series you will find a number of charts which should help to better understand the Spanish crisis.

      Among these are two which show the evolution of real interest rates in Spain between 2000 and 2008. It is obvious that between 2002 and the middle of 2006 Spain had a totally inappropriate interest rate, and this is the period when all the damage was done. Since the bank of Spain was not taking the decisions at this point, it is hard to blame only the Spanish administration for what has happened, and all levels of EU administration need to ask themselves what responsibility they have for the current mess.

      The number of houses sold in Spain fell 25.5 percent in June compared to a year earlier, marking the 18th straight month of decline, according to the National Statistics Institute.

      The fall in June sales to 35,372 units compared with a decline of 32.2 percent in May versus the same month of 2008, and a 47.6 percent drop in April, the largest drop since the sales decline began. But even though the number of sales has picked up very slightly in recent months, the monthly volume is still down 57.75 percent over January 2007, which is the relevant statistic in a decline which has now been continuing for so many months.

    • #94127

      A further comment he makes re. Tinsa….

      They also point out that the cumulative decine is now down 14% from the December 2007 peak. So prices are falling, and there is no real sign of easing, and indeed the only real issue is how far they will fall. My guess is 40% minimum, but others are invited to make their own attempt – as in a lottery – and we will see at the end of the day who the winning ticket belongs to. The other issue will be, once the fall stops, how long it will be before they return to only 30% below the December 2007 peak. My guess is five years after they bottom, but as I say this is pure guesswork, and is about as useful at this point as the year on year piece of data TINSA kindly provided us with.

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