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Posts
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Published today:
http://www.tinsa.es/down/IMIE/2010/IMIE_08_2010.pdf
General YoY: -4.6% (July -4.3%)
Costas YoY: -4.9% (July -4.9%)Steady decline continues. Peak (Dec 2007) to present is recorded as General -17.9% and Costas -23.7%.
No question that Tinsa figures are flawed. For what it is worth I believe they lag the market by 12-24 months. That said they are probably the best of those around.
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Problem is they are based on subjective valuations, and the banks are their paymasters so get what they want. So basically their valuations don’t tell you much about the real price of property. Otherwise, I agree, probably the best in town.
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I don’t think the reduction for Coastal properties is too far wide off the mark. For a 200k 2 bed property in 2007, being market today at 152k (reduction of 24%) seems reasonable, It agrees with what I see.
However, for those 2 bed properties that someone may have signed up to in 2007 for 300k and which have not been built, then than it a completely different story.
Also at 152k I know those 2 beds are not selling and they are advertised month after month (or should that be year after year now) And to throw into the mix you can see that 152k apartment vary between 100k and 200k for desperate and deluded sellers.
So taking some sort of middle ground 152k (24% reduction) is at least acknowledging the severity of the housing market.
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The Tinsa stats can only make up a small part of the picture. One of the biggest problems for any potential purchaser in Spain is the opaqueness of the market. Asking prices are usually unrealistic. The official stats are so far removed from the truth that they are laughable. A long history of deals carried out partly under the counter has only served to confuse things.
The, admittedly anecdotal, evidence I am picking up is that the peak of the market was in fact much earlier than Dec 2007. Somewhere in 2005 would be my guess. On the costas the average fall since then has been in the 33%-50% range. There are of course variations from area to area and in property type.
What I am picking up from them is that the rate of decline appears to have steadied in the -4% to -5% per annum over the last few months. Headlines, often based on the Tinsa stats, that we were seeing last spring predicting a return to increases by late this year were wide of the mark.
Even without any shocks such as a sovereign default or a ‘new’ two grade euro, prices look set to continue declining for at least another year, probably longer.
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