[Anonymous]

Back on 27 December of last year I wrote in this forum:

“If I had spare cash I would short the IBEX-35, which I expect to fall 20% or more in the next 6 months (many of the companies in the Index are developers and banks, and the Spanish economy is in for a rough time with a housing downturn, credit crunch, high inflation, massive current account deficit, and strong Euro). Regrettably I don’t have any spare cash, sob.”

At that time the IBEX-35 stood at 15,256. Today it closed at 9,900, a fall of 35%. If only I had had some cash. Much more profitable than buying Spanish property.

I’m no genius, it was just bloody obvious. That said, I expected it to bottom at in the 10,000, not below.

If stock markets around the world start to stabilise at current levels, then I think we are in for a painful, but manageable recession. If they keep going down, heaven help us.

Mark

[Anonymous]

Hi Mark,
The Spanish Stock market comprises of Banks, Construction and Utility. Needless to say that in a down turn none of them will perform well.

Perhaps, what you not looking at as an investor is the transparency of the Spanish stock market & the most important is the calibre of the management of these companies. Not forgetting that most of these companies are still dominated by family & friends.

In a Country, where the youngsters aspire to become civil servants, people at all level shy away from decision making, It is not surprising that quality management is not available.

[Anonymous]

“At that time the IBEX-35 stood at 15,256. Today it closed at 9,900, a fall of 35%. If only I had had some cash. Much more profitable than buying Spanish property. “

Dow Jones was 13K on May 2-nd, now it at 8500. A fall of 35%, same as Spanish index.

General Motors is at 1950 level, 58 years of dominance were wiped out.

As discussed on BloombergTV five minutes ago, there is no sign of capitulation yet so there might be another 10% to fall. But what do the economic specialist know? They brought us in this mess with their stupidity

[Anonymous]

IBEX-35 is now 8,645 and falling. 43% down on December.

The IBEX was hammered yesterday by news that Argentina’s cretin of a president is going to raid its private pension pot to shore up public finances. If pensioners’ savings aren’t safe, what hope for Spanish companies in Argentina, goes the thinking.

Expect more bad news, and you won’t be disappointed.

Mark

[Anonymous]

mark wrote:

IBEX-35 is now 8,645 and falling. 43% down on December.

The IBEX was hammered yesterday by news that Argentina’s cretin of a president is going to raid its private pension pot to shore up public finances. If pensioners’ savings aren’t safe, what hope for Spanish companies in Argentina, goes the thinking.

Expect more bad news, and you won’t be disappointed.

Mark

I see it is down another 4% today, I feel so sorry for the Argentinian people their country could be one of the richest on the planet but since the end of WW2 they have been ruled by cretins. They go from one calamity to another.

Lloyd Webber was quite right, Argentina should certainly not cry for Evita.

This latest move must be one of the most stupid ever, after the debt default of 2001 and now the nationalising of pensions in Argentina most investors will not touch Argentina with the proverbial bargepole. Expect similar moves in Venezuela,Bolivia etc where Spanish multinationals are very heavily invested. Six months ago I told a Spanish friend that the Ibex would go below 7,000 , at that time it was about 13.000 he said I was barmy. I have n´t seen him recently to ask if he still thinks I´m barmy.

Banco Santander, Telefonica, BBVA and Repsol are especially vulnerable to problems in South America.

Eastern Europe is going to be another major problem , Hungary has increased interest rates by 3 points to 11,50%, Rumania and Bulgaria are also in the effluent and could be the next deck of cards to fall. The property crash in Spain could be repeated in those two countries .Where will all the parasitic property peddlers go ,then? Where will the next property hot spot ,according to them; be? India?, China?, Thailand?

Perhaps Greenland, they are running out of places fast.

Have never seen times like these, I suppose if private pension plans can be nationalised the best investment at the moment is money under the mattress and gold bars hidden in the garden.

I hear Estepona council have had all their bank accounts embargoed by Social Security, the debt is 96,5 million euros. A payment plan is being drawn up, but not accepted as yet by SS. Staggering as the figure for this debt is , I find more staggering the fact that the council employs 1,250 people. These will nearly all be on fixed contracts and if the council is able to reduce staff levels it will come at a very high price. Watch out property owners in Estepona for special taxes , can´t remember the name it is something like contribuciones especiales, tasas especiales which town halls can demand with very little right to appeal. If the council is PSOE no doubt the cobbler in Madrid will bail it out; if it is PP they will be given nothing and taxes will rocket.

Oh what happy times we live in.

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