[angie]

What with the Spanish Industry slump this is not good news for Spain,  not only Club Med countries but surprisingly Germany adding to the Eurozone woes, how will this affect public confidence in Spain?

http://www.thelocal.es/20140814/spanish-public-debt-tops-trillion-euro-mark

• This topic was modified 10 years, 5 months ago by angie.

[DBMarcos99]

If you check Markit confidence surveys, they’ve gone up substantially for Spain in recent months. As exports, tourism etc have risen, people probably feel the tide is turning

By the way, not that debt is good, but the UK public debt can be seen here (now at £1.3 trillion and rising). There must be an equivalent site for spain?

UK debtbombshell

 

[angie]

The double whammy mentioned for Spain just when things appeared to be getting better would not instill confidence IMO in investing in the country. One can tit for tat with comparisons with the UK but there’s little comparison since the UK is leading the global race for growth whose economy growth is beating that of any other G7 State.

This last year we’ve made substantial gains in investing and selling in both UK property and shares, as many others have and would not have swapped that for any similar Spanish instruments.

But back to Spain, with Spain’s home sales reported as rising but prices falling is a strange phenomenon, in the UK, when home sales rise, prices do too, back to supply and demand there and completely different markets.

Delighted to find a lot of tapas bars owned and run by immigrant Spaniards popping up in many UK towns and cities though. Hope that trend continues, best of both worlds for us.

 

• This reply was modified 10 years, 5 months ago by angie.

[DBMarcos99]

It’s looking very dangerous for buyers in the UK property market. Been quite a few reports like this one “London real-estate goes into full-scale collapse” – I hope you avoid this, if indeed it does happen.

Largest decrease ever London

No puzzle over rising number of house sale transactions in Spain – people are buying at the new lower levels.  Be some time before it gets back to the boom years though.

TTransaction levels are decreasing in London, not surprising when you consider the crazy overblown prices.

[caption id="" align="alignnone" width="1024"] Sales up in Valencia[/caption]

Sales up in Valencia

 

• This reply was modified 10 years, 5 months ago by DBMarcos99.

[Anonymous]

<span style=”color: #262626;”>”This last year we’ve made substantial gains in investing and selling in both UK property and shares” still boasting  😆  😆 </span>

[katy]

I am very happy to “boast” that I have been watching my property in UK earn at least £1500 per week for the past year. Well, on paper anyway…smug smile!…..that is outside of London where properties are selling within 2 weeks. More than a mini boom methinks.

Isn’t this forum format crap. Thumbs down

[Chopera]

“<span style=”color: #262626;”>But back to Spain, with Spain’s home sales reported as rising but prices falling is a strange phenomenon, in the UK, when home sales rise, prices do too, back to supply and demand there and completely different markets.</span>”

I think it’s partly to do with the cycle. Spain is towards the end of a crash and at some point prices will be low enough for sales volumes to increase. So in Spain low prices are driving up sales volumes. The UK has just had a mini-boom caused by other factors such as lower unemployment, more lending, etc so more people are buying and that is causing prices to increase. So higher sales volumes are driving up prices.

 

[angie]

Poor old Ubeda pops back again when his mate posts, hey Ubeda do you still not like living next to Spaniards?Lol

Fact is it is Spain that suffered a ‘slump’ in property prices not the UK, Def Slump: ‘A sudden severe or prolonged fall in the price or value’ which Spain suffered for last 6-7 years. London prices rose so much in 1 year 26% which was fastest rate on record and ridiculous, UK rose 10.2% in last year, both need to cool down as it is unsustainable and was a deliberate plan of Osborne and Carney to boost asset prices before the next election.

Ubeda, btw, we know someone with an unpretentious 2 bed flat in Shepherds Bush value at £390k just 19 months ago this year being sold for £600k, these rises are life changing amounts of money for people, they are now buying large detached in the country. Compare this with Spain’s property market, where was the sensible money invested? We’ve just exchanged contracts on sale of UK home after bought 3 years ago, good timing we think, won’t tell you the increase though, you might cry or spill your drink.

Fact is Spanish property is ok for change of lifestyle or holiday home, but it will be a poor investment for years to come, you know Spanish property has to rise 20% just to break even on transaction costs and this fact is not conveyed by most agents who rely on gullibility.

Spot-on analysis Chopera!

 

• This reply was modified 10 years, 5 months ago by angie.

[DBMarcos99]

Every bubble bursts in the end. Spain’s had its correction – now it looks like it’s London’s turn. Let’s face it people cannot pay those inflated prices (hence transactions decreasing in London this year), so there can be only 2 outcomes. Stagnation, or a correction.

No-one can say that there will definitely be a 50% (or more) correction in the London market – although that’s par for the course for most bubbles. But anyone buying should ask themselves – do you want to run the risk of losing £300k ? That’s the risk you run if you overpay for a 600k average property in many London boroughs.

Here’s that fall in transactions:  Big fall in London Prime

<span style=”font-size: 10pt; font-family: ‘Calibri’,’sans-serif’; color: black; line-height: 115%;”>House sales transaction levels in central London’s prime property market are down 45% compared to June 2013, according to a new report.</span>

• This reply was modified 10 years, 5 months ago by DBMarcos99.

[katy]

In your dreams Marcos….you would have been better investing in Middlesborough than Madrid ha ha ha.

[katy]

Perhaps a bit of a disappointment for you marcos but property seems to be still doing OK. in londres too Ha Ha

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2728753/House-prices-rocket-10-year-average-house-costing-time-high-265-000.html

[angie]

Depends on the bubble really, the largest bubble and burst I’ve ever known of is Spain’s, it’s not over yet either. Acuna reckons the existing stock for sale as at 2012 would take 10 years to get rid of, so 2022. He reckons there are still 1.72 million properties for sale, that doesn’t include 1000’s stuck in negative equity in Spain waiting for prices to rise in order to market their properties. Now I read that Russian confidence is waning not only for holidays to Spain but also for properties, all down to World events like Ukraine. All sorts of problems out of Spain’s hands can affect their market for property. I’ll start a new thread on the IS threat.

So glad we got out of Spanish property nearly 10 years ago and fortunately unscathed after a fight with Awful Estates which we won, 10’s of 1000’s did not and now stuck with negative equity still. Meanwhile the UK property market has been very good for us Ubeda old chap, just love our transaction costs too, in comparison that is!

Big Ben and tower all being cleaned as we speak, ah Blighty!

 

[DBMarcos99]

Spain has had its correction/crash (incidentally, so has Ireland) and as pointed out by Mark in his thread, prices are already rising in the Balearics. Transactions are up too this year, so probably the Costas and the big cities will be next to see a rise – although there shouldn’t be big rises as there is still unsold stock to dispose off.

London prices are definitely coming down now. The question is – will it be a major correction, that will allow recovery to take place within 2 or 3 years. London won’t stop being a desirable destination to  visit or work, so at some point things can recover if prices get back to near normal. Or will the government keep trying to keep the bubble inflated, which will result in 10 years stagnation? Either way those who’ve bought, should try and hang on for a few years, as sales transactions are being hit by the Fear factor.

London asking prices fall

London values fell 5.9 percent from the previous month to an average 552,783 pounds ($922,300), the biggest drop since December 2007, property website Rightmove Plc said today. Nationally, prices declined 2.9 percent, a record for an August.

[angie]

IMO the Balearics have and will always be a niche market simply because of their small size, and Mallorca I think is a very attractive island so I would expect rises there and relative safe market. I just don’t see the same with the Costas, too big, too overdeveloped, and rather spoilt when hillsides were sliced off for development. I believe cities especially Madrid and Barcelona would be ok or better bets than the Costas for investment.

London market needs to cool down somewhat but I don’t believe the Government will want to see a real downturn this side of the election, nor generally in the South and South East property markets which are commuter belt. All the time Chinese and BTL are buying up prime developments I can’t see major falls for some while.

As for investment, the UK property market will still be seen as safer and more investable than Spain’s simply because of supply and demand and low transaction costs, plus London is the financial capital of the world. I said before that Spain is ok to move to live in, or maybe a holiday home for some, but people seem to want change of scenery/country now for holidays.

[Author]

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