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More wishfull thinking from Tinsa re Spanish property prices.
Spanish property prices bottomed out – Tinsa index
According to Tinsa’s figures, average property prices on the coast rose slightly month-on-month in April. This with a massive property glut, 20% unemployment, and highly restricted access to mortgage financing. How much sense does that make?
Mark
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I think they said the same last year!
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Ha Ha !!
A favourite sport of mine is perusing fotocasa (not sure why) I am not in the market for selling or buying.
I have noticed recently massive reductions in a lot of properties and also the same old properties on the website month after month (well in fact now year after year now). The notion of any increase or upturn is ludicrous.
Still another year of falls in my opinion, and then a long period of stagnation as inflation undermines prices further.
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Mark,
To be honest I don’t see where you get that interpretation from.
http://www.tinsa.es/down/IMIE/2010/IMIE_04_2010.pdf
My reading of this is that YoY prices are:
General: -4.6% – On top of -10.1% in April last year.
Costas: -5.2% – April last year was 13.5%.What this means to me is that prices are still falling although not as rapidly as at this time last year. The rate of fall on the costas appears to have dropped significantly this month compared to the previous one (-7.8% in March) but that is largely because the figures for April 09 were so dire.
Given that we are now into multiple years of recorded falls the YoY and MoM figures in isolation are pretty meaningless. What is much more relevant is the peak (Dec 2007) to present figure. This is recorded as -21.5% on the costas.
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It’s a bit like weight loss. It falls off quickly at first then, when there is less to loose, it slows down dramatically!
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The spanish have a way of presenting stats and headlines to show what they want.
Example
Headline…Unemployment down
small print…really it’s up but fewer lost their jobs than last February -
@brianc_li wrote:
Mark,
To be honest I don’t see where you get that interpretation from.
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Given that we are now into multiple years of recorded falls the YoY and MoM figures in isolation are pretty meaningless. What is much more relevant is the peak (Dec 2007) to present figure. This is recorded as -21.5% on the costas.
Which interpretation Brian? I’m not sure what you mean.
Peak-to-trough of 22% on the Coast. Do you believe that? I’m hearing 30-50%
Mark
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Mark, it was your thread headline “Spanish property prices bottomed out – Tinsa index” that I was referring to. I can’t see anything in Tinsa’s figures or the associated press release that says this. Although I’ll readily admit that my Spanish is poor so I may have missed it.
I have long felt that Tinsa’s figures lag the market by some way. For example they record the peak of the market as Dec ’07. Most observers would set it some 12-24 months earlier than that. That said, compared to the other figures available, particularly the farcical ‘official’ ones, they are the best around. My guess is that we are probably currently looking at figures 30-40% off peak. There are, of course always exceptions. It will probably take Tinsa another year plus to reflect this.
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I think John’s post about ‘Lost for a genuine price’ proves categorically that prices have not bottomed out in Spain.
These price differentials for the same property amongst agents are rife in Spain especially inland, the trouble is that some people probably fall for it without doing their research, mugged by the greediest agent!
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