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This is the conclusion of the article in The Econoimist which computes prices/rent.
The first graph shows the current price/rental income in USA, UK, Spain. USA is almost at fair-value. UK is still about 28% overvalued.
Spain is 55% overvalued so a future 30% decrease would only bring prices in line with rental income.
The market usually overreacts in both up or down directions…
http://www.economist.com/businessfinance/PrinterFriendly.cfm?story_id=15179388
According to http://spaineconomy.blogspot.com/ Spain needs a serious deflation to get its budget deficit down- which would push rents down even further. So I think falls in house prices will be even more than your 30% estimate.
With virtually no demand for property in Spain and a vast oversupply of poorly built, possibly illegal properties, Spanish property prices may not have even started their big crash.
Both their Gov’t and Banks could be left reeling at the end of the year. 😉
Well some banks maybe. Santander for eg is probably the most successful bank in europe at the moment.
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