- This topic has 37 replies, 13 voices, and was last updated 11 years, 3 months ago by
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In my part of Spain it starts with a J and ends in an R, ignoring the tenses.
On a serious note, we all know the main problems with the Spanish property market, over-building and dodgy banks (cajas mainly). And the elephant in the room, the Euro. Spain would be better off out of it.
Having simplified my analysis by a factor of a thousand, or more, I want to return to the million expats living happily in Spain, like myself.
I bought the house I currently live in some 17 years ago and paid a few million Pesetas for it. I still have the British obsession with house prices and can say that six years ago it had increased in value by some tenfold, since then it has halved in value from six years ago.
But it’s all gobbledegook and irrelevant. I’m happy living in Spain and the last thing I would want to do is sell my house in Spain.
I think Spanish property prices will stop falling this year, where I live they already have. But Spain is a massive country and I can’t speak for the rest of it.
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Not trying to be a cheerleader for Spanish property, but doesn’t this indicate that things improved a bit in the last quarter of last year, especially compared to the last quarter for the other countries listed? If this chart only listed the last quarter, Spain would be the 49th worst, instead of the 54th worst.
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Investment interest in Spain is growing, unlike most other European countries, except Germany:
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Any optimistic assessment of the Spanish property market has just been shot to pieces by the events in Cyprus.
The signs of recovery in Spain came from foreign buyers/investors, Russians, Scandinavians and Brits among them. Those investors have just suffered heavy losses in Cyprus and most people think of the Mediterranean countries en masse, with Spain heading the list.
I have to sadly conclude that the chances of recovery this year are highly unlikely.
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@Rocker wrote:
Any optimistic assessment of the Spanish property market has just been shot to pieces by the events in Cyprus.
The signs of recovery in Spain came from foreign buyers/investors, Russians, Scandinavians and Brits among them. Those investors have just suffered heavy losses in Cyprus and most people think of the Mediterranean countries en masse, with Spain heading the list.
I have to sadly conclude that the chances of recovery this year are highly unlikely.
You may be right..but…if the value of the Euro drops as a result of all this (and early indications are that it is doing) then goods, services and indeed property in the Eurozone become cheaper to outside buyers…
The funny thing is, property owners/buyers have far more cause to be worried by taxes, than by a possible hit on bank balances over 100k, which can be avoided.
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@Katy CBRE have been in Marbella for as long as I can recall they were in Ricardo Soriano,across/opposite from the offices of Boca Negra the well respected Gestor of Marbella.
They are just hopeless and presently working for Lloyds Bank in relation their properties.
Lloyds Bank, properties are on a PDF format, You have to scroll down, photos are so poor that they are hardly visible, basic information like floor, community charges, etc are not disclosed.
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The bad debt ratio of loans to developers fell a quarterly 23pc in Q4 2012 – the first decline since December 2006, according to figures from the Bank of Spain. Nevertheless, the overall bad debt ratio only fell to 29.5pc, down from a peak of 30pc. Still, it’s a glimmer of good news, of which there hasn’t been much in recent years.
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@mgspain wrote:
Mark: This article is saying almost 3.5mil empty homes, half a mil more than the info-graphic, either way, the numbers are staggering.
“The total number of empty dwellings in Spain is 3.443.365, new figures from Spain’s national statistics institute, the INE, show”
http://www.thelocal.es/page/view/spains-empty-home-count-hits-new-high#.UXLFTb9zrHg
The first thing in the article to catch my eye was this:
There are nearly three and a half million empty homes in Spain, or 10.8 percent more than a decade ago.
This runs contrary to the commonly held belief that the majority of the empty homes are a result of the recent building boom.
My gut feeling is the 3.443.365 empty homes figure is much higher than expected because it includes second homes, holiday homes, etc. I think previously people have talked about there being say a million empty homes in Spain when maybe they were really about a million homes that don’t have an owner that isn’t some developer or lending institution. Pass through many small pueblos in the middle of Spain in winter and it would not surprise me if over 50% were empty, their owners living in the nearest city, and using them for holidays. If they are counting these as “empty homes” then the figure isn’t so surprising (or alarming)
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@mgspain wrote:
Mark: This article is saying almost 3.5mil empty homes, half a mil more than the info-graphic, either way, the numbers are staggering.
“The total number of empty dwellings in Spain is 3.443.365, new figures from Spain’s national statistics institute, the INE, show”
http://www.thelocal.es/page/view/spains-empty-home-count-hits-new-high#.UXLFTb9zrHg
The first thing in the article to catch my eye was this:
There are nearly three and a half million empty homes in Spain, or 10.8 percent more than a decade ago.
This runs contrary to the commonly held belief that the majority of the empty homes are a result of the recent building boom.
My gut feeling is the 3.443.365 empty homes figure is much higher than expected because it includes second homes, holiday homes, etc. I think previously people have talked about there being say a million empty homes in Spain when maybe they were really about a million homes that don’t have an owner that isn’t some developer or lending institution. Pass through many small pueblos in the middle of Spain in winter and it would not surprise me if over 50% were empty, their owners living in the nearest city, and using them for holidays. If they are counting these as “empty homes” then the figure isn’t so surprising (or alarming)
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Are there any reliable sources to find out “achieved” prices per sq metre of property actually sold. I have looked at TINSA and they have a very fancy index but i want to know average “€ per sq metre for sold properties in Malaga province”, for example. Alternatively is there a publicly accessible register of property sales like sites such as ZOOPLA in the UK use for recent sales?
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Banco de espana released figures on friday about the numbers of repossesions for 2012. Around 39k, numbers for evicted rentals was around 80k.
Is it true that as soon as you are late with your payments they raise the interest rates to around 20% on your loan?
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Spain Recovery Begins With Sareb Suicide Pact’s Bull: Mortgages
Spain’s Sareb, set up last year to acquire 90 billion euros ($116 billion) of soured real estate assets at a discount from rescued lenders, is preparing its first sale, known as ‘Project Bull,’ to test the beleaguered property market’s ability to attract investors.
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According to Eduardo Molet, an “expert” oft-quoted in the Spanish press, this is going to be the worst year on record he agrues, citing the dismal stats on sales in Q1, down 22pc on last year (thanks to the ending of tax breaks for buyers). If sales fell 22pc despite the banks dumping their portfolios, then the “free market” (individual resales) must have been no-existent.
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Malaga province now has more than a thousand homes on sale for less than 60.000
http://www.diariosur.es/20130606/local/malaga/malaga-ofrece-millar-viviendas-201306060121.html
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House price falls worsen in Greece and Spain. Pity the poor souls who believed the posters on here who claimed the market had bottomed 😯
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@katy wrote:
House price falls worsen in Greece and Spain. Pity the poor souls who believed the posters on here who claimed the market had bottomed 😯
Pity the poor souls! You make them sound like victims of a terrible natural disaster rather than canny buyers taking advantage of lower prices, which is what they really are.
If there are any poor souls, they are the ones who bought 5 years ago in the boom, when the herd thought it was such a good idea to buy.
Anyone who buys quality in this bust, on the other hand, will do fine. I doubt many of them are investors – just ordinary punters taking advantage of the market to get a holiday home in a nice place for a good price. Whilst you are agonising over their plight they are probably having a lovely time.
My opinion is that the market for quality on the coast is near the bottom. I might go a bit lower in terms of transactions and prices, but I think most of the shakeout has taken place. Of course I am going to express that opinion here and elsewhere, so I guess I must be one of those who you seem to think are plotting to talk up the market and dupe people into buying a home in Spain.
The Telegraph piece is based on a Knight Frank ranking based on official house price stats, which in Spain’s case are detached from reality (as everyone knows). I don’t think it proves much.
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None of the articles “prove much”…the ones quoted on here a couple of years ago proves they were wrong! Prices on the coast could have bottomed now…quién sabe? It’s a different market. Many who aren’t desperate to sell have withdrawn rather than reduce much. I know a German couple who have done this. Sticking to the areas I know well the reductions haven’t been large and many still overpriced.
so I guess I must be one of those who you seem to think are plotting to talk up the market and dupe people into buying a home in Spain.
Mark, why would I think that 😆
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@katy wrote:
None of the articles “prove much”…the ones quoted on here a couple of years ago proves they were wrong! Prices on the coast could have bottomed now…quién sabe? It’s a different market. Many who aren’t desperate to sell have withdrawn rather than reduce much. I know a German couple who have done this. Sticking to the areas I know well the reductions haven’t been large and many still overpriced.
so I guess I must be one of those who you seem to think are plotting to talk up the market and dupe people into buying a home in Spain.
Mark, why would I think that 😆
Because you have a very suspicious mind, in the words of the King.
I’ve seen huge price reductions all over the place. Which is not to say there are not still plenty of unrealistic asking prices confusing the price signals – there are (this is Spain after all). But asking prices are not the market, just vendor fantasies. The market is where transactions happen, with prices in many good areas down 50pc to 70pc. Doest that mean they are now a giveaway price? Not necessarily. But I don’t think the good stuff in areas of diversified international demand will go much lower. Time will tell.
Another important point to bear in mind is there are lots of markets in Spain. It all depends what and where. National stats have some uses at a macro level, but they are almost meaningless to buyers and sellers.
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