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A review of the Spanish property market in 2007, and forecasts for 2008
The link above takes you to my latest annual report on the Spanish property market. Here’s your chance to tell me what a load of cobblers you think it is, and put forward your own view.
If you spot any typos or errors, please send me a PM with a link to the mistake.
Mark
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Hi
I will start 🙂
Issues relating to property price increases appear similar to the U.K and most other countries.
Its suprising how quickly views change so much regarding the Spanish Property market in just one quarter .
Is this report for the whole Spanish property market,the wealthy or just for those humble and poor enough to be able purchase a council house type holiday home.
The over supply is a severe problem but will it be for the whole of Spain or particualr areas as surely as with any predicted downturn some area suffer worse than others.
The negative effect of the bad press regarding the legal issues and demolitions will be one of the most negative issues that face the Spanish property market and unless some confidence is returned there will be limited buyers regardless of price fallsFrank 8)
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A good well thought out piece and good research! I am not sure what will happen but I think some areas/property types will hold their price (more or less). Seen it in Florida, areas around Orlando are in the dumps but in Naples on the Guf Coast prices have scarcely dropped. The uncertainty about legalities does not help Spain.
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I think you’ve ‘told it like it is’ and as such it’s an accurate assessment of the mess that is Spain. I personally think that a recession is more likely than the 51% probability you mention only because I have less confidence in the Socialist governments ability to effectively ‘manage’ this massive problem. A thoughtful informative piece.
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The Florida Gulf coast is way down in price since the late 2005 peak, many properties that were selling for circa $800 to $900k are now on the market for $550 to $700 with very few takers and the number of repos is going up by the week!
In Naples, Fort Myers, Cape Coral etc there are quite a few example of new builders/developer so desperate, prices are being slashed. Florida is 18 months to 2 years ahead of other US markets but still has further to fall due to the huge number of properties bought as speculative investments comming onto a market with few buyers!
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I know Florida quite well too and I do not see falls as you mention. Prices are more “attractive” but not how you describe! It is also a different market to Spain as it has a huge catchment area eg. N America, Canada, then Europe etc. Yes there are repos but they aren’t so cheap.
What does this have to do with Mark’s article anyway??
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It is reported that British buyers are 90% down in recent months. if you apply this 90% to the total 22600 buyers in 2006, it comes out about 2000 to 3000 British buyers in 2007.
How did you come out with the estimate 10,000 to 15,000 in 2007?
Also , considering that many Brits are unhappy about their pucrhases, I expect that many of them will want to come back to UK (where house prices will also reduce in the near future) or go to other countries.
This will lead to more Brits moving out of Spain than the ones going to Spain.
But how could 5000 buyers influence the Spanish market where 3 million apartments are for sale??
Expect the Spanish market to be dominated by ghost towns in 5 years from now. Of course places like Marbella or Palma De Majorca will hold their value, but many new places will be a squatter paradise soon.
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katy wrote:Seen it in Florida, areas around Orlando are in the dumps but in Naples on the Guf Coast prices have scarcely dropped. The uncertainty about legalities does not help Spain.
Depens where on the Gulf Coast. Fort Myers, Port Charlotte, Cape Coral,
Sarasota are at the epicentre of the crash. In Naples good areas lost 25% of value between 2005-2008, bad areas about 50%.This comment has nothing to do with Spain, it is just a remark on some comment about Guf Coast prices having scarcely dropped… Or were you refering to the multi-million dollar mansions on gated islands near Naples?
Maybe those prices did not fall. -
The thought of 40,000 unemployed Estate Agents roaming around Spain is quite alarming. A group this size should be easy to spot as they would kick up quite a dust cloud, so there would be ample time to grip onto your purse before they passed.
On a serious note though, 2008 will probably be were the slide hits the bottom. Declining natural sales since 2004 have been compounded by over-supply, corrupt conveyancing and world financial alerts.
I suspect 2009 to be the year we begin to talk about a revival in the market. If that is confirmed by quarterly figures, people will begin to talk about Spain as worth considering for investment. Hopefully, the agents and developers who are left, will control property prices better than in previous years and preserve the upturn for a longer period.
On a personal note, I would like to see more regulation in the agent sector of the market, with bonds required like abta travel agents. That should deter any flly-by-night from causing our industry future harm.
A good report Mark. I hope it get´s recognition in all the right places.
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Very good Mark and based on facts. I think the only comments I would make and they are very minor and only a debating point, is that kyero stat an increase in asking prices of mid to high range properties and Im sure that will be put down to the owners not having to sell. However the stock markets are making people very uncertain and as in the late 80s early 90s, secure wealthy people who dont just stick therir money in the bank but do play the stock market, may be hit by this and will then have to loss the toys.
There are odd properties in good areas that are still not selling but the owners can afford to keep their prices up so far but no one knows how long this trend will last. In the 70s there were all sorts of luxury property selling for knock dwn prices so its not impossible this will happen again
I feel the banks at the end of this fiscal year will have to declare vast losses and just from the way things are going for me, whilst it is quiet in the buyers area its is extremeley busy in the sellers area.
There are buyers but they are holding off and this will help to bring about the downturn faster.
Just a small question as well. When sales rates are shown for 2007, the transactions, are these new transactions ie reservation fees (cant be as there is no register of this) or is this in fact completions from 1, 2 and more years ago from the off planners completing!
As it surely must be the latter, then the true picture is an awful lot worse!
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What a great report. Thanks Mark.
As someone who is on the brink of completing a 2 bed, 2 bath ground floor apartmnet in Phase 3 of Roda Golf & Beach Club (a 5 star resort 1km from Los Alcarazes Breach and the Mar Menor in Murcia), I read your report word for word. Up to today, we were 95% to 5% decided on not completing with the purchase nd writing off our initial investment/deposit.
The purchase price (with taxes) on the property comes to €230k – we bought it as an investment off plan in 2005. We haven’t a hope of seeing that again for maybe 5-7 years. The mortgage lenders are being very cagey (we’ve been turned down by 2 so far since December 2007 – my husband is self employed). I don’t feel like paying the mortgage for 5-7 years with little hope of rentals.
The only thing I’m curious about is whether you would term this resort a ‘quality’ one – I understand that there are difficulties in the inland off plan complexes that were thrown up in the past couple of years. This one is different I feel but I’m unconvinced that this will be any saving grace for us.
We could afford to keep this property but I’m not sure its a good investment. We would be putting another €70K of our own money into the property over the next 5 years but for what? If we completed now it would be for everyone elses sakes (the developer, the bank, the Solicitor, the property management company, the furniture company etc – all of whom are pushing us to complete as you would expect).
Any thoughts?
Shirley, Ireland
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Hi Shirley,
I am not posting on behalf of Mark.
I am very close to the resort and can see it from my office window.
I have sold a few properties there and all my clients have moved in.
On the whole, Roda is a middle to better quality resort. It´s close proximity to the beaches make it better than most for rental, provided the rental price is sensible. I have several friends living in rented properties on long-term basis at around 600 to 750 euros per month.
The golf course is decent enough and the residents there seem very satisfied that they got what they were told they would get.
I have very few resales on Roda compared to say Polaris. There is a decently high level of occupancy all year round.
The quality of build is not as good as one would expect for the price, though they are quick to rectify problems with little or no fuss.
I suspect the exchange rate is hitting Roda completions as it is hitting all new-build completions at present.
I´m sure you will make the right decision regarding whether to take your loss. I suspect in 3-4 years you will see a small profit (only my personal opinion) though you could have had some very nice holidays in that time and a few long term rentals. I am very suspect on the holiday let side, as you say “too much choice” and over supply.
My apologies to all for being off topic here, If you want to start a new thread Shirley to continue your topic it can be done.
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Shirley wrote:The only thing I’m curious about is whether you would term this resort a ‘quality’ one – I understand that there are difficulties in the inland off plan complexes that were thrown up in the past couple of years. This one is different I feel but I’m unconvinced that this will be any saving grace for us.
It looked like a nice resort from far away(I have not entered into it). It is very close to the Sea and airport, eventhough Mar Menor is a bit dirty and the beaches are not so good.
I am not sure how much are the current ptrices, if they went below 230K maybe you can negociate a discount with the developer.
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Sent in by email:
Most interested in reading your reports but think that it is incumbent on you to draw attention to the state of affairs into which Gordon Brown has sunk the UK economy where a massive “bust” is in progress (as many have been forecasting for several years). This is playing a very large part in keeping Brits away from the Spanish market.
Whatever one’s views of this, the truly massive indebtedness of UK families is keeping Brits away from even booking holidays at this time. Over 75% of my enquiries for holidays during the last two months come from the French (happily my 2nd language so I can deal with this flood).
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As always a very balanced report with evidence of extensive research. Your point about the state of U.K. also applies to several other countries.
I support Peter Good’s views and I am predicting a recovery in the better and more established areas from 2010 onwards. 2009 should witness a return towards more confidence.
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I struggle with the fact that people on here are speculating on a specific timeframe for the recovery.
I know it is only an “opinion”, but I fail to see how an opinion on this matter can be formed, and could easily prove to be a false dawn for someone influenced by said “opinion”.
The top economists in the world are unable to forecast, with any certainty, what will happen with the global economy in the next quarter, let alone 2010.
Any housing recovery is inextricably linked to the economy, be it global, European or Spanish and
only Nostradamus, possibly, could have foreseen events such as 9/11, tsunami, sub-prime, gulf war etc etc and its consequential effects.History teaches us that there *will* be a recovery, but not *when*.
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Inez,
You are right to spot that the completion figures are based on escrituras, which means they reflect off-plan sales from previous periods. I didn’t want to make the piece even longer exploring this issue. So yes, the number of sales in the widest sense, including escritura and private sale, will probably be a lot worse in 2007 / 2008.
Someone asked where I got my estimates for 2007/2008 sales. I plucked them out of the air based on my best guess. Nobody really knows.
Shirley,
I’ve never been to Roda, but I’ve never heard anything bad about it. The overall impression I have, based on what I have heard over the years, is that it’s one of the better resorts in the area. Beyond that I really can’t say. Peter Good’s comments are better informed than mine.
Mark
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“I struggle with the fact that people on here are speculating on a specific timeframe for the recovery.” – I do agree with that, especially when people can narrow it down to 1 year.
Why aren these people are not working for Governments, Institutions, etc., make make life easier for many.
It may help if they could state what there forecasts are based on, even if it is just “gut” feeling. -
Very good report with obviously much research and holds up with people I have spoken to (friend whose partner is a property developer on Costa Del Sol, also in touch with estate agents on Costa Del Sol where we are hoping to buy), and being an owner of an apartment on Costa Blanca which we are trying to sell, I get the same feedback of estate agents there too. You have to be prepared to sell cheap to be in a position to buy cheap is what we are getting from them.
The downturn obviously has much to do as you say with the credit crunch and the global downturn generally. The lack of british buyers is obvious – the reasons you give plus there is a pessimism here since Gordon Brown took over running the country that it is heading out of control with prices spiralling unchecked with fuel, council taxes, food prices and taxees generally continuing to rise with no end in sight whilst salaries are being pegged back year on year. Equity in the housing market is now in the decline with many people I feel (especially in the Midlands and North) with prices falling and confidence has now gone as to how to finance a further purchase in Spain where prices have also risen uncontrolled year on year to a point where in many cases the price of a property there is as high as in the UK (but obviously running costs are cheaper in Spain). This is I feel where the key lies for many british people returning to the spanish market. That and the sunshine which has no price on it and continues to pour down unabated.
The British will I feel return to the Spanish market when reports of land grab and unscrupulous developers and officials has been put under control and the law takes a greater part in the purchase of property. Also the developers have to take a more realistic view of property prices -they no longer have a monopoly hold of holiday home properties for sale with new cheaper markets springing up in many European destinations which are tempting the British with less money in their pockets to buy.
We have come to the conclusion that we will struggle to sell our property on the Costa Blanca and may not be able to buy for another 12 months on the Costa Del Sol but we are as determined as every to retire to the Spanish Sunshine where you can still get your bins emptied for a couple of hundred euros per year compared to the UK where it costs up to £1200 p.a. and you are lucky if you will still be able to get a weekly dustbin collection. 😉
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My forecasts are based upon a blend of fundamental, technical, and historical analysis. Ultimately it can only be a gut feeling and so far my predictions have been right. Q4,2007 was a defining moment when an acceptance that the market had been in decline for several years emerged. 2008 will be the year when this is confirmed and when the major downward corrections will crystalise. 2009 will be a year of a move towards stability and restored confidence, and 2010 onwards will be the start of the recovery phase. Why? Spain is a popular choice and over the next two years there will be pent-up demand which will seek out the bargains in the better and more established areas.
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Dear MG
There are three categories of individuals on this planet. Those who make it happen. ( The entrepreneurial class ). Those who watch it happen. ( The professional class ). Those who think what happened. ( Civil servants.). I sense that I am in the former category, you are in the second category, and the guys you are taking note of are in the third.
Where did you get a sales pitch? Where did you arrive at 15% growth, and an income of 10K, guaranteed? Dream on.
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Gordon Brown (much as I detest him) is not responsible for the state of the spanish property market. The slump has been happening for at least two years. Agents and the spanish authorities have been trying to talk up the market. Aside from the bad press re. corruption there is the side issues, extreme overdevelopment in some areas, rising prices for everything, just a disenchantment with Spain. There are certainly less tourists around, I would say this is the quietest winter I have known. more hotels are closing in the winter. Surely less tourists
turns into less buyers?Most people nowadays know someone who has a second home abroad so they are more aware of the pitfalls of foreign ownership, trying to maintain the place from a distance usually using the same people who are involved in selling (ie. rip-off artists). I do think the British love affair with a second home abroad has faltered.
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JWhite wrote:.
This is I feel where the key lies for many british people returning to the spanish market. That and the sunshine which has no price on it and continues to pour down unabated.
The British will I feel return to the Spanish market when reports of land grab and unscrupulous developers and officials has been put under control and the law takes a greater part in the purchase of property.
I would almost agree with your points. But you might forget something:
the prices in Spaina nd the ones in UK are falling together. They might hit the bottom together.In that moment, I would expect British to purchase property in UK (for their children, grand-children, etc) and enjoy the cheap holiday rents in Spain…
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My optimism for a recovery in the better and more established areas are partly based on looking beyond the current situation in Spain and in U.K. as well as dwelling on my own experience in the early 1990s, when following Unification, certain wealthy Germans sought out terrific bargains in Spain in the knowledge that their own economy was not going to perform as well.
Today European countries such as Norway have benefited from the revenue in oil and there are many Norwegians with substantial wealth. Their professional classes have healthy bank balances.
Those who have held back and who have not been caught up in what has being going on the property market in Spain will be spoilt for choice, and they will return in the years to come to seek for themselves properties which represent good value.
I think it important to look beyond our own shores and Spain and to accept that other groups will emerge and will buy property in Spain.
I also qualify what I have written. The recovery will be limited to specific areas, and it will not be smooth, there will be setbacks, but medium to long term the outlook is generally more positive than it is today.
And to prevent MG from suggesting that this is another sales pitch or childhood fantasy, I am advising prospect purchasers to wait until the present situation unwinds, and that in two years from now their patience will be rewarded. Utility value can still be obtained through renting, there is no urgency to buy.
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There may be other people not dissimilar to Shirley, reading these forums, who are on the verge of completion and contemplating whether to proceed or not.
They, like Shirley, seek guidance and opinions from those with long experience of the Spanish Property Market, and could well make important long-term personal or investment decisions based upon those opinions, who knows?
Not all of these people, I suspect, are hardened investors with cash to burn.
I don’t believe it is helpful to read specific forecasts for recovery, especially as it could easily be read as a recovery for the market/economy as a whole, rather than to a segment (better/estab).
It was only a couple of weeks ago, on the ‘train-wreck’ thread, that Bernard opined “My scenario is an outright crash, in both the Spanish property market and in the economy, followed by a recovery in about three to four years from now”.
Forecasting recovery for 2011/2012 or thereabouts? I can only assume that particular forecast didn’t include the properties in better or more established areas.
No problem with reading anyone’s prediction of likely future events, if it is based on substance, sound reasoning and is consistent.
Phrases like those above “they will return in the years to come” and “long term the outlook is generally more positive” are non-specific, and I would suggest, more responsible.
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m.g 🙂
Just reading through this thread and you have requested how someone could attempt to predict the future of the Spanish property market
You have had an excellent reply from B.H :?and one I totally aree with.
Please remind the forum of your occupation ?
The one post B.H made refered to 3 catagories perhaps another should be added for those in a class of their own . 😆Frank 8)
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To explain my personal feelings in my previous post. I have no evidence or see no evidence as to why the market will improve or at least halt it´s decline other than the property market worldwide has followed, over the past 30 years a 5-7 year cycle of ups and downs. This particular decline began around the third quarter of 2004. My sales figures show that.
I personally believe the cycle to be totally influenced by the greater world financial cycles.
Property has never, over the long term, fallen in value. So my personal assumption reflects all the above, coupled with a little bit of faith that the cycles will remain fairly consistent.
Other than that, my feelings or personal predictions are totally at the mercy of larger more important issues, such as war, the environment or any other catasrophe that could emerge.
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As a businessman (small) of course, I find it helps to have a plan as to where the business goes in the immediate and long term future, hence the need for a prediction or two.
I have to asses or predict and even guess when the markets will change for both better and for worse. Even during a decline, it´s important to try and identify the speed and term of it. The same thing during a boom, it´s as important to be able to streamline your business when you see a recession looming, as it is to plan your expansion when comming out of one.
Even during a decline, there is the possibility to diversify, find a niche market or if I were one of Bernards entrepeneurial classes, create one!
I am constantly thinking of ways to protect my business at this fragile time, not for any egotistical reasons, but simply to pay my mortgage and feed my family like any other person.
I suppose for those reasons, I have to preserve my right to predict and hope, though to advise others on the strenght of my predictions would be irresponsible!
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Everyone here is giving their opinion of what the think is going to happen in the property market, and they are just that, opinions I have yet to meet anyone who can tell me what WILL happen in the future, as with the financial markets no one knows, everyone is guessing.
What I can say about the Costa Del Sol area it seems to be the only one at the moment where it is difficult to get really cheap flights which makes me think that it must therefore still be very popular. -
Dear Peter
I fully endorse your views and I share similar circumstances. None of us will ever be able to be precise about a market. We can judge trends and cycles, and I have put forward dates as guidelines. We can offer best advice, and our skills through experience and intimate local knowledge. As you and others have done so well and as Mark has summarised so well.
The better the quality of our work in this forum, and the more we contribute, the better informed we will all remain. This should help individuals to reach the critical decisions they have to make when buying property in Spain. I have no reason to revise what I have contributed thus far.
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“My optimism for a recovery in the better and more established areas are partly based on looking beyond the current situation in Spain and in U.K. ” – Agreed, as I see that you have not now given specific years.
“Those who have held back and who have not been caught up in what has being going on the property market in Spain will be spoilt for choice, and they will return in the years to come to seek for themselves properties which represent good value” – Again agree with that as the specific years and forecasted.
“I think it important to look beyond our own shores and Spain and to accept that other groups will emerge and will buy property in Spain.” – Yup
“And to prevent MG from suggesting that this is another sales pitch or childhood fantasy, I am advising prospect purchasers to wait until the present situation unwinds” – Have said that on numerous times here, and I for one am waiting for opportunities.
If there is no urgency to buy, don’t buy yet.
Frank
“Just reading through this thread and you have requested how someone could attempt to predict the future of the Spanish property market
You have had an excellent reply from B.H :?and one I totally aree with” – So you too can forecast the years for the markeet turn eh?
As you agree with BH, does that mean that we should all rush out and sort finances as we now have 2 that can forecast the European property and finance markets?“Please remind the forum of your occupation ? ” – Why and which, do you request details on my professional qualifications on my business interests?
“The one post B.H made refered to 3 catagories perhaps another should be added for those in a class of their own ” – May I thank you for your compliment, but please do not feel inferior.
Opinions, fair enough, statements based on fact, no problem. Enquiring on a forum after personal details, you are inviting a backlash.
“This should help individuals to reach the critical decisions they have to make when buying property in Spain. I have no reason to revise what I have contributed thus far.” – If prospective purchasers make critical decisions based on what they have read on a forum, it should be no surprise that so many get caught and feel conned.
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Dear MG
Fine, but to rubbish all the contributions to this forum except your own is not called for.
I firmly believe that all Marks initiatives including this forum and the efforts of others who have contributed have gone a long way to help many people think more carefully when it comes to buying property in Spain.
It is one of a few independent and reliable sources and it deserves more merit than you appear disposed to acknowledge.
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“Katy, that helps restore my faith in contributors. One who basis their opinion on facts and not fiction or what they would like to believe.”
Is that what you call rubbishing all the contributions?
If so, it leaves me confused.“I firmly believe that all Marks initiatives including this forum and the efforts of others who have contributed have gone a long way to help many people think more carefully when it comes to buying property in Spain.”
Never questioned or doubted Mark’s report, statistics or thiss forum. Has anyone?“deserves more merit than you appear disposed to acknowledge.”
OK, if that is your opinion fine.
Please note: I do not and never have questioned the merits of Mark’s comments, statistics, reports or this forum.What I do question is how anyone can forecast how the market will be in 2009, 2010….
Back to the topic, I personally would not buy at present, nor wold predict when I will. I will first let market forces find their feet.
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@Peter Good wrote:
I have no evidence or see no evidence as to why the market will improve or at least halt it´s decline other than the property market worldwide has followed, over the past 30 years a 5-7 year cycle of ups and downs.
After housing booms, Japan had about 16 years of declining prices, and the US in 1988 went into the doldrums and prices didn’t reach ’88 prices again until 1997. Those lengthy recessions could not have been foreseen.
That’s not to say something similar will happen here, but it COULD.
Having said that, I fervently hope your prediction turns out to be a correct one!
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Bernard Hornung wrote:Today European countries such as Norway have benefited from the revenue in oil and there are many Norwegians with substantial wealth. Their professional classes have healthy bank balances.
Those who have held back and who have not been caught up in what has being going on the property market in Spain will be spoilt for choice, .
What about other choices in Cyprus, Malta, Turkey, Italy, Greece or Portugal? There will so much property all around Europe (not to mention North Africa or Arabic countries) that only a chinese invasion can help selling all the properties.
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Peter Good wrote:To explain my personal feelings in my previous post. I have no evidence or see no evidence as to why the market will improve or at least halt it´s decline other than the property market worldwide has followed, over the past 30 years a 5-7 year cycle of ups and downs. This particular decline began around the third quarter of 2004. My sales figures show that.
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I do not think one can compare this cycle with other cycles. Bteween 2004 and 2008, there were millions of properties still being built inSpain and many, many other countries (probably a total of 15-20 millions all over South Europe).
These tens of millions properties need to be sold or demolished…
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I agree Ralita the quantity of units in Spain alone that are unsold is huge and they are still starting new developments. I passed Estepona today on the toll road and they have just started two massive Developments, far into the country side and overlooking the toll Road! This didn’t happen during the last recession in Spain so it is hard to estimate how long recovery will take. In the 2bed/2 bath market I would guess around 7 to 10 years. Just a guess though 🙂
I know quite a few Norwegians who have bought property here, they look for quality not the bog standard boxes they have built over the last 5 years.
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Dear Ralita and Katy
Agreed and I reinforce my previous statements, the recovery will be selective and there will be setbacks. It will be a fragile and gentle trend at first with no guarantee of a recovery to the dizzy heights once achieved.
Only the more established areas offering quality and value will experience any form of upturn. You are right to mention the competition in other parts of the world, and in particular north Africa.
The large scale developments which blight the landscape are incomprehensible and I would not even wish to guess what purpose they will ever serve other than to make a recovery more difficult. I cannot understand how this continues to be permitted in Spain. Reducing supply and improving quality through demolition should not be discounted as a possible remedy. How that might be achieved is beyond me.
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No one can accurately predict what is going to happen. I fully expected the drop off the edge to start back in 06, but it hasnt, it has carried on rolling along gently until the start of this year, but then again the factors have to all be in place for it to happen.
Using the past and some of the facts from the past one can take a view on the likely outcomes and I am with Ralita that this is a new phenomenon with the huge oversupply etc.Miirroring the 70s downturn. many developments will be left partially built (I believe there are various tax advantages in doing so) or will have few owners living there witht he defuncy developers owning the majority of the proeprties and not paying comunity fees with obvious consequences as well as numerous properties competing with each other for sale.
Perhaps the cheaper developments will be used by the local town halls to house the homeless!
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I am highly sceptical about 2008 being the year that the property market bottoms. There is no evidence to support this, and none has been referenced in this thread so far.
I understand the estate agents who are arguing this case but they are doing so because it is their job to find the silver lining in the cloud. After all, if you can’t be optimistic about the property market then you really shouldn’t be in that business, but that doesn’t mean that those of us without vested interests shouldn’t interpret your optimism for what it is.There is no light at the end of the tunnel yet. We are in a new situation and to reference our past is only as useful as referencing Japan’s experience.
We are faced with over supply on epidemic proportions and this will take five to ten years to sort out. Obviously the worst case is the 2 beds, but there are also a lot of empty and unsold villas.On the demand side, the Spanish have shot themselves in the foot on a spectacular scale. Corruption is endemic in the spanish system and is currently getting the publicity it deserves. Add to this the treatment of Lewis Hamilton the other day and yet more ETA bombs and I think that the British love affair with Spain -well it may not be over but let’s say that demand is satisfied now. The Germans have certainly fallen out of love with Spain and I don’t see any other nations who weren’t soppy with Spain in the past are hardly like to flock here now given all the bad publicity.
On top of this we have the credit crunch, the effects of which have barely impacted the financial system. It is already it is a lot harder to get a mortgage and I heard of one bank that simply won’t finance any more mortgages on the CDS. For those of you who thought that the current financial crisis is coming to an end, bear in mind an estimate that only one quarter of subprime losses have been declared. I think it’s time some Spanish banks came clean…
The spanish property market is in denial -that what mark refers to as a “stalemate”. The worst is certainly to come given that there are no economic positives appearing on the horizon as yet. To suggest a quick turn around in fortune is to ignore the reasons why we are where we are and to discount the global financial climate.
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forestfire
some really good points in your last mail. I think a global financial climate turnaround on its own will not be enough to kickstart it back in to action?. I can’t help feeling that unless Spain anounces important changes of policy that can up the ‘feelgood’ factor when buying in Spain, then those with new money will just head towards other areas.
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As I pointed out in my report, it was easy credit that inflated the boom. Spanish property prices are over-valued as a consequence of cheap money and heavy borrowing. Take away the cheap money and asset prices have to come down.
Every day I see fresh evidence that Spanish mortgage lenders have turned off the taps. Why? Because they don’t have any money to lend. They used to borrow short in the wholesale credit markets then lend long to property developers and buyers. A lot of this money came from abroad, hence Spain’s 10% of GDP current account deficit. Now the rest of the world won’t lend so cheap to Spain, so Spanish lenders are now fighting an intense battle for depositors, and going begging to the ECB window. This could get messy.
Mark
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I read an article in the Spanish press the other day saying that some developers are expecting German buyers to ride to the rescue and save the holiday home market. The argument was that German buyers will come back to Spain now the German economy is picking up (moot point).
But the fact is that German buyers have abandoned Spain, and aren’t coming back.
Why have the Germans abandoned Spain?
Property prices in Germany have stagnated or fallen slightly over the last decade, in Spain they have almost tripled. Property makes up a big chunk of household wealth (90% in Spain), so, on paper at least, German household wealth has been falling relative to Spain, UK, Ireland, and other countries with a housing bubble. The equity in German property buys two thirds less than it used to in Spain.
Build quality in Germany is in a totally different league. Germans are very quality conscious when it comes to making and building things, which explains why they are the best at engineering in the world. Building quality in Spain leaves them cold.
Germans aren’t mad about owning property. Half the population rents, even though property is relatively cheap to buy in Germany.
Germans don’t like debt. They like to pay cash, not with credit cards, and they aren’t as comfortable with mortgages as the British, Irish, Spanish.
When a German compares what you get for your money in Spain compared to back home, and looks at how much they have to borrow on a variable rate mortgage (98% of mortgages in Spain) to afford it, it’s no surprise that they have abandoned property in Spain.
Mark
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I think the the “quality” issue is one that certainly does apply to Germans and as far as much of thee developments in Spain (resorts) this is unlikely to meet with their demands.
My experience is that Germans would much prefer to have a quality 1 bed unit and fitted out to a high standard, whereas to many Brits, it is quantity that matters. Many years ago when renting villas, not only in Spain, experience soon taught me to rent German owned, as equipment, furniture where all far better quality and the premises maintained to a higher standard also.
I recall staying in a German owned villa and 2within 50 yards there was an identical villa, Brit owned. Just could not believe the difference once stepped inside the door. -
The banks will have a very, very big influence on how the market reacts going forward. Particularly in their appetite to continue supporting speculative developers. Spanish banks may now need to regroup and focus on low risk sectors, whilst steadily restructuring their own affairs.
In todays FT:
“Jean-Claude Trichet, president of the ECB, last week insisted the central bank had not been bailing out banks in Spain, but said there had been a marked increase in use of securitised bonds as collateral by Spanish banks and others.
The big difference is that European banks must re-raise this funding every week and the mortgage-backed bonds pledged at the ECB will have to find their way to the capital markets eventually, which many analysts say could mean markets such as Spain are potentially storing up problems for the future.”
See full article at: – http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/64797fd2-d8eb-11dc-8b22-0000779fd2ac.html?nclick_check=1
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Appears to be another ‘tsunami’ emerging on the horizon….
“Once the striptease starts on the onset of a global downturn, it usually has a long way to run.”
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Statistics are like bikinis, they reveal what is interesting and hide what is vital.
The all out property crash in Spain has been kept hidden, and as we approach the elections all will be revealed. The striptease will start, and it is going to be a horrible sight.
The downturn will be sudden and rapid, and the property market in Spain will fall first. Thereafter there will be a ripple effect and most sectors of the economy will suffer.
Although history seldom repeats itself precisely it does have a certain rythym. Spain is fascinating and has a magnetic effect. It is a striking country, rich in culture and diversity, heaped in scandal and corruption, and for some completely inexplicable reason, some people will return to buy property.
And this will happen once property prices crash as they will this year. People will buy because they think that they are getting a bargain, and their decisions will be based on value above price.
This will be the driving force behind the fragile recovery in the years to come
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Bernard Hornung wrote:And this will happen once property prices crash as they will this year. People will buy because they think that they are getting a bargain, and their decisions will be based on value above price.
This will be the driving force behind the fragile recovery in the years to come
So you really believe prices will bottom out in December 2008?
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A number of misguided bargain hunters will be induced into purchasing bank repossessions this year. They will come into the market too early. They will halt the slide where they purchase.
This will result in prices bottoming out in certain developments within certain areas. It will be as specific as that as they will have trawled the market and will make small acquisitions where they believe they have value.
This activity will restore some confidence and the fragile and selective recovery will begin from 2010 onwards.
However it will not be smooth and there will be setbacks and the trend towards any real form of recovery will not be evident until 2012, or beyond.
Some developments are so awful that they will have no value or any hope of recovery. The market will fragment, and there will be heaps of rubbish which will be discarded by all except squatters leaving Spain with long term and serious social problems. Criminal activity will soar. The growth industry will be security services, and the demolition of what should not have been built.
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@katy wrote:
There are certainly less tourists around, I would say this is the quietest winter I have known. More hotels are closing in the winter. Surely less tourists turns into less buyers?
The Costa del Sol has suffered its worst winter for tourism since 2003, according to AECHOS the area’s Association of Hoteliers.
http://www.typicallyspanish.com/news/publish/article_15081.shtml
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Thanks Charlie. My “feeling” was correct then. 🙂
More hotels are closing in the winter too and the golf courses are well down in numbers. This year two chiringuitos who were always open all year have closed. People are realising its not really a winter holiday place and its possible to get guaranteed weather and balmy evenings elsewhere for the same price.
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I can only come up with three reasons why this could be happening.
1. Less money around, the credit squeeze beginning to have an effect.
2. A bit of disenchantment with Spain with new emerging holiday destinations. Want to try something new.
3. A Brit. rebellion beginning to bite re. disgust at all the corruption.Or maybe a combination of all three?
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@katy wrote:
Surely less tourists turns into less buyers?
Katy – this comment of yours is also an interesting one and may also be a factor. How many tourists were people combining a holiday with a chance to view properties, and have since lost their nerve re. confidence when it comes to buying in Spain?
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charlie wrote:1. Less money around, the credit squeeze beginning to have an effect.
2. A bit of disenchantment with Spain with new emerging holiday destinations. Want to try something new.
3. A Brit. rebellion beginning to bite re. disgust at all the corruption.Or maybe a combination of all three?
It is more because of number 1).
Also, the cost of living has increased in UK by at least £1300/year during the last 12 months.
People have to find this money somewhere. First thing they can cut are the holidays abroad,
they are not neccesary for everyday living.About number 2), flights to Spain are much cheaper than the ones to Morocco and
Turkey or Egypt so for cheap holidays Spain is still better.About number 3), I guess tourists do not know or do not care about the corruption in Spain…
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i’d agree no. 1 is defo the biggest issue. corruption was around last year, and so were all these alternative destinations. its seemed to me for some time that the 2 week holiday here is reducing whereas shorter stay breaks are on the increase. its just this has been curtailled this year as these short stay trips will go before the main holiday break.
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Yes I doubt if corruption would put off tourists. What does deter them is rising prices, they expect Spain to be cheap and it isn’t anymore, especially in tourist areas. The Costas have also become complacent to good service, particularly in the “smiling” I do hear visitors grousing in the Golf Club, mainly when they are asked to pay 3 euros for a small water! Greece and even France are far much better value right now when comparing prices and quality.
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Katy you do seem to have a big chip on your shoulder about Spain I don’t think you have made any positive remarks lately. We bought a apartment a year ago and would love to spend more time there, but due to work commitments so far have not been out as often as I would have liked. I was out at New Year where else could you go 2 1/2 hours from the UK, 18 degrees, a nice game of golf and cheap booze. Its not all bad as I said just wish I could afford more time to be there.
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There is an interesting trend emerging which is shorter and more frequent visits, and therefore the cost and availability of flights is of prime consideration as are the costs of the activities at the destination.
I empathise with Katy as complacency has made Spain less attractive and less competitive, and I understand her negative comments as mine at this moment are possibly even more draconian. I have had the benefit to move away from Spain and to make comparisons with one of its smaller competitors, which has suffered a severe downturn economically and where tourism is growing as a result of an adjustment to reality.
I was with a hotel management group yesterday who confirmed that the hotel industry on the Costa del Sol had suffered a decline. Clearly the absence of all those highly subsidised inspection trips, paid for by the developers and agents, has led to a decrease in occupancy as from memory these inspection trips and press visits were normally held out of season to get better rates.
It is at times such as these when we can analyse revenue streams more precisely and plan how to re structure to remain competitive. I fear for tourist areas in Spain which have been so degraded by overbuilding and which now lack any form of appeal. It is difficult to think of a way forward.
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@jwc wrote:
Katy you do seem to have a big chip on your shoulder about Spain I don’t think you have made any positive remarks lately. We bought a apartment a year ago and would love to spend more time there, but due to work commitments so far have not been out as often as I would have liked. I was out at New Year where else could you go 2 1/2 hours from the UK, 18 degrees, a nice game of golf and cheap booze. Its not all bad as I said just wish I could afford more time to be there.
What do you mean about a chip on my shoulder ❓ Does it not cross your mind that as I have lived here a long long time that I see things as they are. How exactly can you compare your views with mine, you pop out now and then! And no, I am not negative about everything but, just to continue with the trend it has been bloody freezing here the last few days…18C..dream on 🙂
Cheap golf…what do you call cheap? Yes it is great to pop out in 2and a bit hours, we did it for years and it was great, I just think that Spain has lost the plot at the moment and apparently I am not alone.
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Sorry, skimming again 😳 Yes the booze is cheap but tourists tend to hang around the rip-off joints.
I have always said if you want to buy for enjoyment…go ahead.(as long as it is legal!) We bought in the 80’s and went through one crash, think it lasted about 5 years but it doesn’t matter if you are not selling. Hopefully (as last time) the spanish will come to their senses. The last crash almost mirrors this one, stupid property prices, high restaurant prices, coupled with indifferent service. The only difference this time is the massive over supply of properties.
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@The-Frank-Tavern wrote:
i’d agree no. 1 is defo the biggest issue. corruption was around last year, and so were all these alternative destinations. its seemed to me for some time that the 2 week holiday here is reducing whereas shorter stay breaks are on the increase. its just this has been curtailled this year as these short stay trips will go before the main holiday break.
sorry meant to say that the current exchange rate isn’t helping either, as when the brits get here it feels even more expensive than before
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I wouold have thought for excat declines one would have to look at the airport visitor numbers. If they are still up against last year, then the visitors arent going to the hotels but probably to friends, families or acquaintences apartment.
Also each tourist place has a cycle and if the newer investors are buying in other countries, they will be going there too.
I bet Bulgarias rather full this year with their completions! As will be Turkey, Italy the new place and other far off fields.
The rest of the brits cant afford it due to xmas overspend and the credit card companies cancelling their accounts!
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@ralita wrote:
About number 2), flights to Spain are much cheaper than the ones to Morocco and Turkey or Egypt so for cheap holidays Spain is still better.
Still think there are many destinations that can compete with Spain via the ‘Easy Jet’ route e.g. for February: S.France (Nice) £72 return, Switzerland (Geneva) £53, Sardinia £70, Lisbon £90. Anyone been to Florence? The city is breathtakingly beautiful.
For me, makes no odds if the flight is two hours or four. Whatever the difference, it is minimal considering the whole kerfuffel of travelling to the airport, checking in, waiting for luggage etc. The flying time would certainly not influence my decision on where I intend to spend a holiday. And certainly a £20 airfare wouldn’t either.
Life is so short and so many fabulous places to visit.
Can’t believe I’m writing this on a Spanish property forum, am going to get slaughtered for apostasy. 🙁 -
Charlie I think you were making the point that Spain is not the best place for cheap holidays. I for one do not think it is cheap now. There are loads of lovely places to visit and travel is reasonably priced too. At least I think that is what you were saying! 😉 The Spanish love affair has ended for many people.
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Spain may not be the cheapest place for holidays, but when I compared my preferred country against my criteria of being able to travel to my property frequently, I decided that frequency and duration of flights was my no1 choice.
Mainland Spain did not appear on my list of countries to purchase a property, but I knew I wanted to be somewhere that had daily flights from my small regional airport as our intention was to take several weekend breaks.
I have the benefit of 2 daily scheduled flights in the summer and 4 in the winter to Malaga. On top of that there are also the charter airlines.
I leave work at 1pm on a Friday and I’m in my property by 8pm that same day.There are cheaper places to go but can I get to them so easily?
All of our views are subjective based on our personal needs
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With regards to the Costa del Sol suffering its worst winter for tourism since 2003, all I’m doing is acknowledging there is competition out there, and Spain cannot become complacent.
There was a time going back to the mid ’60’s where it was the first venture abroad (and the only destination abroad) for many British including my family. We rented one of only 5 little houses right on Denia beach, stepped out of the door and onto the sand! But times have changed and each year, especially recently, the competition is getting more and more keen.
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Sadly Charlie times have moved on and your experience would now cost many thousands and probably be contrived to appear that way.
Regardless of the view of some here, we are all time poor (and poorer for it) and many of us still only have time for a quick fix. I would like to vary my holiday destinations a little, but like many I suspect want to get were I’m going as quickly as possible so we can enjoy our time together, all with as little fuss as possible (very important if you have children in tow). To be honest it’s the fact that we are together which is important not the destination really. Flying is no longer “a part of the holiday” as it was for me at 19 on my first flight abroad anywhere (Spain as it happens). In fact my children look forward to the flights as they know they will get a lollipop to suck and they like sweets (like all kids). So quick and easy flights are very important for us.
Spain is not so bad and has all of the things many people enjoy. The food in Spain is fresh (on most fish counters it’s so fresh it’s still moving) and tastes like food should. I disagree that it’s expensive in fact I would say it’s very good value for money, better value than the UK and I live “up north”. We walk, go shopping, look at the sights, play on the beach, play golf and we even don’t mind “warm” rain from time to time.
Spain has a great deal to offer, I don’t regret buying in Spain we adore going the children have talked of nothing else for a week (or is that the lollipop 🙂 ) as we fly tomorrow.
I bought over three years ago so the comment below doesn’t apply I assume.
I guess that anybody who bought an apartment in Spain a year ago must be attempting to somehow justify such a decision by suggesting that they are time poor
Regards
Paul
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Not sure what the source of this is – it was sent to me by email.
Note that Lombard Street Research – a topflight firm of economic and financial analysts quoted in the article – use Spanish Property Insight as a key source of information, as do other research firms like Mintel.
Anyway, here’s the article
Mark
****NEWS FLASH: The United States is not the only country suffering from significant financial imbalances. Neither is it the only country where underwriting standards were thrown overboard as a result of many years of rising collateral values. Even if these factors were not at play it would be debatable whether world economies could emerge unscathed from a U.S.consumer slowdown. With the attitude towards aggressive lending changing markedly, some of the heretofore benignly neglected bubbles could pop.
Spain – Residential Property Bubble Extraordinaire
According to a quote by David Owen of investment bank Dresdner Kleinwort, cited in the blog Seeking Alpha, “Spain could face serious difficulties this year as the excesses of a decade-long boom finally catch up with the country. The size of the Spanish corporate sector’s financial sector is truly really scary. It rose to 14.5% of GDP in the third quarter of 2007 from 10% in the first quarter. This must be a record for a relatively large economy. Clearly this is not sustainable. Cost imbalances have a nasty habit of unwinding quickly and very painfully.”
The article goes on to note that Spanish direct investment in residential construction (ex mortgages and other related businesses) is 18% of the economy versus 6% in the U.S.
Diana Choyleva, an economist at Lombard Street Research in London, is quoted as saying “Spain is like the U.S, on speed when it comes to the housing market. It is highly likely there will be falls in nominal prices.”
It also cites Moody’s as saying that Spanish loan delinquencies may rise 15 fold by the end of 2008 due to increasing interest rates.
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Hi Paul
Have actually looked out some old photos and our Denia experience was 1961! Don’t expect these little houses are there anymore. 🙁
Totally take on board your comments that, with children, the fact you are all together is more important than the destination. Also know that in any case you have a superb destination/development. 😉
Enjoy your trip tomorrow (inc. the lollipops) and your holiday – and hope the weather is kind during your stay.
Charlie -
Taken slightly out of context!
http://www.urbandigs.com/2008/02/global_decoupling.html
A blog not research
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Frank – Paul’s development isn’t Green Hills.
As for the destination, have never knocked Elviria. Really like it there which is why we wanted to buy there in the first place. Especially top of the hill where our apartment was supposed to be with seaviews (shame not one brick ever got built). 🙁What’s happened to the Green Hills thread by the way, are you not wanting to wear your jc hat anymore?
I did enjoy the hoax and appreciated all the effort you put in writing all those posts. 😀Word of advice: If you want to pretend to be someone else, you have to change your style. Too many Frank-isms for ‘jc’ to be credible, totally gave the game away am afraid. 😉
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“MG take note.”
BH, So dynamic to be able to give such orders. Has your chest puffed out?
But what is your point in me wishing to note the contribution?Whilst Mark’s comments and observations may be good, I am confident that he would agree that as it is his job, they should be.
Has anyone doubted Mark’s reports and observations, which from what I read are based on reliable source. -
Dear MG
It is a team effort, contributing to a debate, enabling others to do so as well, and collectively coming away with more information than you originally had in the first place, through a process of exchange of experiences, and piecing together different views and opinions without having to be rude or derogatory. My chest is not puffed out. Running for cover is not necessarily anything to be proud about. I left Spain having failed and having been humbled by that experience.
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@Bernard Hornung wrote:
Dear MG
It is a team effort, contributing to a debate, enabling others to do so as well, and collectively coming away with more information than you originally had in the first place, through a process of exchange of experiences, and piecing together different views and opinions without having to be rude or derogatory. My chest is not puffed out. Running for cover is not necessarily anything to be proud about. I left Spain having failed and having been humbled by that experience.
Well, there you have it MG. A considered & mildly pompous reply from the self confessed Millionaire. Bernard Hornung.
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@Just Frank wrote:
Charlie 🙂
Well one step forward at least its the same developer with very similar problems.
I have made a promise to the editor and will not even comment on the later part of your posting. 😥Frank 8)
Just Frank. Do you reply to your own postings under different made up names?
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Dear MG and Mr Ben
The team effort is contributing to this forum.
The money I have made and lost in my own life is my own private affair. I have learnt to win and lose without regret. That is business.
The experience which has humbled me was misleading people to embark upon a course of action where neither my promises or their expectations were fulfilled, trying to sort out the mess and being completely defeated by the system to the point of leaving the country. Leaving behind a number of unresolved problems with the individuals concerned fighting it out on their own.
I am happy where I am now because the Portuguese are more conservative, more careful and they are decent honest people who are hard working, humble and happy. I feel safer and more confident and more in control of the human, material, and financial resources required to deliver what I am developing, correctly and on time.
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@Just Frank wrote:
Mr Ben
Not sure which side of the bed you got out this morning to be rude to both Bernard and myself 👿
If your “also “stupid enough to beleive what your rude posted regarding me I will take your one of your quotes and refuse to argue with an idiot. 😡
Frank 8)Not rude at all Frank, just a very straightforward question. I distinctly recall seeing a posting from you that you had indeed been replying to your own posts under various guises. So I thought I’d ask you about it. Problem?
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Mr Ben 😈
I have no idea just what you are waffling on about.
You had no reason whatsover to post or agree with such a stupid statement against a fellow poster and to me it is someone trying to create a problem.
That is a posting of a complete idiot
Good day to you and suggest the forum be put back on track as this stupid issue should never have been allowed to start.Frank 8)
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Perhaps out of respect for Mark, to add value to debating important issues and to acknowledge without having to accept other peoples points of views we should contribute towards getting this thread back on track.
This is not a Board Meeting, nor is it an opportunity to ridicule others or an excuse in which to display bad manners.
Many individuals will read what has been written by all of us and will reach the contents of this forum through a highly respected website. Some of those individuals will have important decisions to make, the less fortunate may be struggling to resolve their problems by having been mis-sold property in Spain and in other overseas countries.
I do not feel it is incumbent upon any of us who have been permitted to contribute to this forum to reduce it to making personal remarks. Such items will not help readers to reach the comments we were invited to make by Mark following his summary of the market last year and his summary of the issues which may influence what might happen to the market in 2008.
I believe that he has put forward an extremely good report which shows evidence of extensive research. It is well balanced and has drawn the attention of many analysts, who will now begin to have a better understanding of this market and its peculiarities.
One of the problems we all face in real estate is the time it takes for any trend to emerge and to be reported, partly due to the long lead in times in offering property for sale off plan and then waiting several years for its delivery.
Those of us at the sharp end and working in this industry daily are the best informed. If we share that information with others in a responsible and truthful manner, analysts such as Mark are able to balance our experiences and comments with the information being provided by Government and local authorities, professional institutions and other analysts and journalists. That is all I ask.
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@Bernard Hornung wrote:
Perhaps out of respect for Mark, to add value to debating important issues and to acknowledge without having to accept other peoples points of views we should contribute towards getting this thread back on track.
This is a very good point, highlighting the deficiencies with this particular method of debate.
Discussing a myriad of important issues arising from a very detailed report, on one forum thread, can often mean many tangents making it difficult for the debate to ‘keep on track’, and therefore follow.
Contributors offer up opinions on a hundred and one different subjects (from Florida, to hotel occupancy on CDS, credit crunch, Spanish bank problems, etc etc etc). Randomly interspersed are replies (very often some posts later), and a few irreverent comments, making it somewhat of a literary free-for-all. Arguments/points can often be misinterpreted, misdirected and sometimes results in confusion.
Additionally, by not conducting the debate in ‘real time’ means a lag before all replies are received.
One solution might be to create a specific ‘Debates’ forum, discussing reports or polls (eg the soft landing/train wreck) and create a different thread for each specific issue (ie each separate issue arising from the ‘conclusions’ section of the report).
Examples:
‘Spain’s popular areas 2008 – is it a good or bad time to buy?’ (Re areas, properties, buyers, vendors, timing etc)
‘Global credit crunch and its affect on the Spanish property market’ (Re macro/micro economics, banks, finance)
Narrowing the channels might just keep the debate more specific, making it more productive, more manageable and ‘flow’ better.
Then again, I have absolutely no idea how much extra work this might entail for Mark, or whether or not people do in fact prefer the all-encompassing style of debate. It’s just a thought!
🙂
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Dear Iano
I think that this is a sensible way to keep us more in focus.
I gather from having spoken to an agent on the CDS today that the place is crawling with bargain hunters, which validates the arguments suggesting that there will be a recovery in the medium to long term. The 64,000 dollar question is when and how far do prices have to drop before the bargain hunters make a purchase?
I guess that every man has his price and every woman too!
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I guess that every man has his price and every woman too!
Mine would be 1p on the Costa del Sol and 1 euro on the Costa Blanca. Given all the uncertainty for the moment that is about right. As to the place crawling with possible buyers ,I doubt this very much. Talk is cheap in bars and every bar room lawyer will be advising a purchase at these “bargain” levels. The stench of corruption will last a long time and it will be along time before Spain is on the list of top destinations.
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@Bernard Hornung wrote:
which validates the arguments suggesting that there will be a recovery in the medium to long term.
It’s true that after markets start a plummet there is a recovery, albeit a temporary one, when speculators pile in for a ‘bargain’.
Not unlike the speculators that bought into Northern Rock after the queues had started forming outside their branch doors.
Those ‘investors’ are now looking at the prospect of very little return, if anything at all.
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iano wrote:Bernard Hornung wrote:which validates the arguments suggesting that there will be a recovery in the medium to long term.
It’s true that after markets start a plummet there is a recovery, albeit a temporary one, when speculators pile in for a ‘bargain’.
It is called “bull trap”. Many idiots lose their shirt during these traps in a falling market.
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“It is called “bull trap”. Many idiots lose their shirt during these traps in a falling market.”
Or a “Deat cat bounce!”
Just think in the UK of the hundreds of thousands of FTB properties and newbie BTL’s that were purchased at the ‘bottom’ of the market following the stall in property price inflation in 2005!. They were of course encourageg by the members of the BOE MPC who voted against the Governor to reduce rates (by .25%) at a time when the expectation was they would hold. More buyers have been sucked/sukered in at the top than ever before.
As they say “never catch a falling knife!”
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I suspect there will be different qualities of bargain hunters out there. Some will get a good deal with enough equity left in the property to weather the storm for a couple of years and still see a profit.
The less sucessful bargain hunters may not do so well but will no doubt eventually make money if they look to the longer term.
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Definately a mix of hunters and the ones who know their stuff are making offers but owners wont accept. Either they dont have to and can hang on, or they hope its going to get better.
I see a familiar trend with my units. They ask what reserve, I tell them. They ask me to put in on a bit higher and depoending on the property I refuse or I agree.
The property sits there attracting further outlay for the owner when finally around 6 months an offe comes in – at the same price I told him 6 months prior! So extra loss is the mortgage and community fees as well as months of stress when I could have sold it quicker!
What Im finiding now is a quandary – bank valuations have dropped by around 15-20% on last year, BUT mortgages outstanding are at least equalling that so a negative equity situation is becoming very clear.
Obviously this doesnt help and I actually have units which whilst fine, are effectively unsaleable beacuse now legally one cannot buy fully financed and no one is willing to put their hands in their pockets.
I was only lucky to get my last deal through as it was beachside – otherwise they would have walked away.
Another issue is banks insisting on experian reports, and whilst this in itself isnt a problem, anyone with several buy to lets will be unable to get a mortgag here as they will be in the eyes of the spanish banks, out of the debt to loan ratio – even though these units are paying for themselves with rental income!
Not easy times folks!!
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Article today in El Pais reporting that speculative demand for off-plan / new property in Spain has evaporated. Not only did demand fall by 30% towards the end of last year, the article reports that developers are now having problems with investors pulling out of contracts. So sales that developers thought were in the bag are now going bad. This is not just on the costas. It affects Barcelona and Madrid as well.
Mark
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I suspect the exchange rate is still hurting them badly.
If they paid their deposits last year or even the year before they were probably getting 1.45 Euros to the GBP. As they are now being asked to complete at 1.33 Euros to the GBP it pretty much makes the balance 10% more. Add the 10% purchasing costs plus another 3% if mortgaged that will add 23% approx to the purchase price.
If we then calculate the builders prices/bank values to drop by 20% this year on average, then the investor will be 43% negagtive equity.
That´s a worst case scenario I know, but, it does make for a credible reason why investors are pulling out of their purchases.
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mark wrote:Article today in El Pais reporting that speculative demand for off-plan / new property in Spain has evaporated. Not only did demand fall by 30% towards the end of last year, the article reports that developers are now having problems with investors pulling out of contracts. So sales that developers thought were in the bag are now going bad. This is not just on the costas. It affects Barcelona and Madrid as well.
Mark
So it resembles the situation in USA at the beggining of 2007.
From January 2007 to February 2008, prices in bubble-areas of USA (Florida, California,Arizona,Nevada) fell by at least 25%.
Almost all the current buyers in Spain face at least a 25% loss of their “investment”.
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Thanks for volunteering me ralita 😳
I have pasted a link below which is not the most reliable tool to check valuations, however, it is a component in the machine that gauges valuations.
http://www.expocasa.com/preciometro/
It shows Torre Pacheco area property prices to have fallen by 15.69% between January and February 2008.
I have about 30 or more resales on some PW resorts at around 20% below builders prices. I know of other agents who are offering PW resales for even greater reductions.
My suggestion of 20% less over 2008 is, at present, on some PW resales. There are many more that are being offered at at least the builders prices and even more at well over the builders prices.
It is a black art at present valueing any property in Spain.
It is most important to remember that PW is responsible, along with other developers in the area, for the explosion of property per m2 values from 2002. Even if there is an across the board devaluation of 20% during 2008, prices will still be around 40% more than they were befor PW arrived on the scene.
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Peter Good wrote:
That’s a good graph.
Is it for asking prices or for sold prices?
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It´s shows asking prices ralita. Most if not all deals will I suspect be less than the asking price.
Just one more thing ralita, It´s important to be sure the graph shows a good cross-section of properties, some areas for example only have around 8 or 10 properties to estimate the average selling prices. I would only trust the graph if it was 50 or more for sale.
Now ralita, I hope you don´t use too much of your time with this new tool or Mrs ralita will be very angry with me.
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Mark’s comments are interesting as they mirror my last experience in Spain some 18 months ago. Properties were on offer at 600,000 Euros, bank valuations were obtained at over 800,000 Euros, properties were sold at 500,000 Euros. Out of 45 exchanged reservation contracts, only 11 mortgages were approved and only those 11 sales were completed. The remaining 34 townhouses are on the market at any offer approaching 475,000 Euros, over 45% below a bank valuation of less than 2 years ago.
The developer in question thought that all 45 sales would go through and this false dawn has left him having to lower his asking prices and still not having achieved any further sales.
I feel certain that this example is one of many and as I mentioned previously, 2008 will be the year when banks will start to take action to reduce the number of non-performing loans.
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mark wrote:I know of one big Spanish developer with a portfolio of 3,000 properties for sale. They did 6 sales in January, down about 80% compared to last year. Not a great sign is it.
All figures approx.
Mark
This just shows why American developers are better than European ones. Americans are more decided and cut prices faster and try to download excess inventories of real estate.
The Spanish developer prefers to stay with 3K unsold properties instead of slashing the prices by 50%…
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Dear Ralita
I believe that in America the banks are more willing to write off bad debts, which may be one of the reasons for developers to react in the way they do over there when they get left with unsold stock.
Over the next few months we will discover for ourselves what brilliant solution the banks in Spain are going to come up with. I guess that many must be burning the midnight oil figuring out what to do next.
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Would slashing prices by 50% help the developer ralita. To begin with, there would be some very angry earlier buyers who had paid full price. Even at 50% off there are so few buyers out there that it may not solve the cash flow situation at the builders bank. Also if the builder loses money on those properties through high interest charges from his bank, he will be in even further financial ruin.
It may seem the safer bet to at least hold on to his assets for as long as possible in the hope of a Spring/Summer upturn in the market. The peak time to buy is approaching and there will no doubt be some buyers out there.
I get the feeling September/October will be the bailing out time if this Summer is yet another disapointing one sales-wise.
That would be the time to look for a real bargain.
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Peter Good wrote:Would slashing prices by 50% help the developer ralita. To begin with, there would be some very angry earlier buyers who had paid full price. .
Well, there is no love relationship between developers and buyers.
Buyers purchase at their own risk. All buyers love when they accumulate equity overnight, they should also be prepared to lose equity overnight…
I guess some buyers would prefer the fire sale of neighbor properties instead of having squatters in their vicinity…
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I am begining to question whether there ever was such a huge market in the first place. Perhaps the greed of the developers, coupled with the greed of the commission hungry brokers, together with the misguided aspirations of the speculators created a sense of demand in excess of any actual demand, perceived or realised.
Slashing prices will cause resentment amongst those who paid the full price and may plunge the more highly geared into negative equity. It will also deter many from completing.
There is no immediate or apparent solution and the scale of the problem just gets bigger, and the outlook worse.
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Bernard Hornung wrote:Slashing prices will cause resentment amongst those who paid the full price and may plunge the more highly geared into negative equity. It will also deter many from completing.
Many paid full price because were told that the property in Spain had increased by 20%/year in recent memory.
And thought that the increase would continue so a 20% would have been guaranteed.
And who does not want 20% free money?
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Bernard I don’t think the demand hs been there for some years. Many bought off-plan because all the newspapers were publishing stuff about everyone making 30% by flipping. I think there was only a two year snapshot when there was real money to be made. No-one could flip because they all wanted to buy their own off-plan to flip! Bit like the dot-com boom, there wasn’t really much there when you look at it after it crashed.
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“Slashing prices will cause resentment amongst those who paid the full price and may plunge the more highly geared into negative equity. It will also deter many from completing.”
Don’t think that will concern the Developers and why should it?
If you invested in Vintage Wines or cars, that is your decision, irrespective of where you bought, or who you bought from.
Time was when classic and vintage cars were being marketed as fail-safe investment.
There is no such a thing.
One thing you can guarantee is that if money is easy to come by and something is marketed as “excellent Return” 15-20% p.a. there are always fools who fall for it. -
Dear MG
It will certainly concern the developers, particularly those with unsold or partly sold developments. Especially those waiting for purchasers to complete. Do please read Mark’s previous comment on the number of developers now suffering from non performing sales contracts.
Causing resentment will also damage any prospect of future sales. It could also lead to many walking away from other obligations connected to property ownership, such as paying mortgages or community fees. This then causes other problems and the deterioration of a promised dream into a real nightmare for the innocent few who really wanted to live in a complex of townhouses or apartments and who never thought that they would be so heavily interdependent upon the individual and collective performance of other co-owners and purchasers.
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Bernard Hornung wrote:Causing resentment will also damage any prospect of future sales. It could also lead to many walking away from other obligations connected to property ownership, such as paying mortgages or community fees.s.
There will be no resentment during next boom. People will have forgotten by then and will be driven by the new madness…
During the next years, many people will not pay the community fees and some will give back the keys to the bank.
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Fine, Ralita, but somehow we have got to determine what will happen between now and the next boom. My point is that slashing prices will hurt developers, as well as causing resentment amongst those who paid the full price. I cannot see MG’s argument suggesting that if many are detered from completing it will not concern the developers.
As a property developer I do concern myself with the performance of my prospect purchasers as I depend upon them completing and it would cause me grief if they did not. I guess that if I slashed my prices by 50% many would not complete, and for me that would spell disaster.
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BH, don’t think you have read as intended.
You said “Slashing prices will cause resentment amongst those who paid the full price”
I don’t think that the Developers will lose sleep over the thoughts over the people who have purchased and if they can off-load the remainder at whatever the discount, they will walk away winners on that particular development.“Do please read Mark’s previous comment on the number of developers now suffering from non performing sales contracts.” – Yes, but for Developers who have sold the majority, it is worthwhile them slashing prices, just to complete and out.
For a development where majority are unsold, as Mark mentions, it is a different scenario.“This then causes other problems and the deterioration of a promised dream into a real nightmare for the innocent few who really wanted to live in a complex” – And you think this would be of concern to the Developer?
“People will have forgotten by then and will be driven by the new madness… ” – Agreed, as since the last recession. There is now a new generation and older people who choose to forget.
“I cannot see MG’s argument suggesting that if many are detered from completing it will not concern the developers. ” – So you consider that businesses who have been clever to con many thousands, have not been clever enough to protect themselves. Next you are going to tell us that developers use their own personal funds to finance developments.
“As a property developer I do concern myself with the performance of my prospect purchasers” – Me to, which is why will only accept Blue Chip covenants as tenants.
“I guess that if I slashed my prices by 50% many would not complete, and for me that would spell disaster.” – But as a developer, be it self funding or institutions, you must be aware that the developers would protect themselves.
Aren’t you? -
Dear MG
You must place the comments I make within the context of the debate which is a developer with 3,000 units having sold just 6.
Also if you are going to quote me, please do so fully and not selectively. Developers will not care about resentment. I have already explained to this forum the transactional nature of business conduct in Spain in as much as soon as a developer has received the funds for completion he will quickly conclude his relationship with his client.
My point is that if you as a developer are stuck with 3,000 units and just 6 sold you have got a problem.
May I suggest that before you contribute to this forum you read the entire thread with greater care, and make comments which add value to this debate without ridiculing yourself or trying to ridicule others.
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“My point is that if you as a developer are stuck with 3,000 units and just 6 sold you have got a problem. ” – So if the developer goes broke, do you believe that it will it be the Directors personal funds that will be hit most?
If even only some of the allegations made against the developers ar correct, these are clever people with good legal and financial advisors, who knew there was an army of people willing to believe the hype and part with their money.
It may affect the first time project developer, but not the directors of the larger more established developer who is likely to untertake a 3000+ unit development.Mark’s posting stated “I know of one big Spanish developer with a portfolio of 3,000 properties for sale. They did 6 sales in January, down about 80% compared to last year. Not a great sign is it. ” – My reading of that is that it is not just a single development of 3000 units, therefore, let’s assume that the total initial portfolio was say 30,000 and only 3,000 remain. OK, they may have only sold 6 in a month, but if only 10% (3000) of the initial portfolio remains unsold, they have already made a handsome profit. Bet their margins are more that 10%.
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Thank you MG I can live with that. The forecast is that some 60,000 smaller property developers will go bust in Spain this year. We shall see if this forecast proves to be right at year end.
The bigger ones may be in more trouble, who knows as we are all agreed that the new national sport in Spain is to remain silent.
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A few Quotes from Chris McCarthy in the latest Viva Hot Properties mag.
He writes of the negative media in the UK particulary the TV programmes, and, says “the sole aim (of the programme) of which appears to be a wanton attempt to rubbish its image still further”“Despite what some would have you believe, property owners here are not in any hurry to sell up and rush back to the UK”
Of Marbella he says “of those few properties that may be razed to the ground, most are hotel rooms rather than private properties”
On the closure of Viva offices he says
“Over the years Viva Estates built up a chain of offices serving the local communities. Now with most of our clients currently coming to us via the internet…….after 10 years we found our offices redundant”
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@mg wrote:
My reading of that is that it is not just a single development of 3000 units, therefore, let’s assume that the total initial portfolio was say 30,000 and only 3,000 remain. OK, they may have only sold 6 in a month, but if only 10% (3000) of the initial portfolio remains unsold, they have already made a handsome profit. Bet their margins are more that 10%.
I really don’t think so. A “portfolio” suggests the residual property that is held as unsold. You would not describe previously completed (and sucessfully sold) developments as being part of a “portfolio”.
In your example, it is entirely feasible that a very large developer has over a number of years built and sold say 30,000 units…but not 30,000 within a very short timescale ❗
As such, my guess would be that Mark’s reference to 3000 units is in fact a substantial part of the current build program for the developer he alludes to and will in fact be a massive problem for them. (Perhaps Mark could clarify?)
As for margins? I guess that particular developer can kiss them goodbye!
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On the closure of Viva offices he says
“Over the years Viva Estates built up a chain of offices serving the local communities. Now with most of our clients currently coming to us via the internet…….after 10 years we found our offices redundant”
I do not need to hire a dvd tonight , I´ve had my laugh for the night. “Serving the local communities” when did they ever do that?
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I had lunch with a senior Spanish banker yesterday who admitted that there is an acute shortage of liquidity in the Spanish Banking System, directly as a result of lending too much money to property developers in the hope of securing the secondary business of individual mortgage lending upon the sale and completion of the housing units.
Property developers have hardly sold anything in the last two years because as Mark and others have pointed out the contracts have gone bad on them and no one is completing. The sales which they thought they had achieved in the last two years are for the most part non performing contracts.
His forecast is a complete economic collapse in Spain followed by a 15 to 20 year recession. I may have to review my thoughts on the recovery I thought might happen from 2012 onwards. This now seems in doubt.
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BH, I am glad that you have got some satisfaction from the comments of “
a senior Spanish banker”, but if you are in the industry or not, I think that most people of reasonable intelligence were aware of that. But then Bank Managers to tend to be the last in line to know what is affecting their institution.The forecast of a 15 to 20 year recession. What is the forecast based upon?
I would not of thought that even a Government, let alone a Bank Manager could forecast the next 15-20, be it for the economy or anything else.Because it is a predicition from a Bank Manager, should it be belived?
There is more chance of half a dozen of us giving a forecast and if we agree, stating that date.The developers have dug themselves into a black hole, funded by the Banks. So, who is the better or worse, or perhaps Developers and Banks are the same.
My mind is that they are the same.
If the Banks had researched the developers proposals and business plans in more depth, perhaps thing would not be as bad as they are getting now. Also, perhaps the Banks should have ensured that ALL legalities and documents were in place, prior to agreeing to fund the developer. Then there may not have been so many tears.
I am afraid a Bank Manager, or even a Senior Bank Manager gets little respect from me.
Time was when a person in such a position was respected, but no more. Only by those who have to go cap in hand.
10 days ago I chaired a meeting attended by a Government Minister. Should I believe him?
Should I risk money on his observation?
Could he predict what will happen in 15 years. If he thought he could, no way would I base anything on it. -
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The gentleman in question heads up a Bank in Portugal, has over 40 years experience in banking in Spain and put forward the same scenario that both Japan and Germany have been through in the last 15 to 20 years.
Although I did not fully agree with all his statements I have to accept that his overview of the situation today in Spain must be more accurate than mine.
As to his forecast and mine that is of course limited to opinion, but who am I to argue with such eminence.
If you want to take him on MG, glad to ask him to give you a call.
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Hi
For once I agree with m.g on this one and am suprised that Bernard would change his views as the result of just one persons views no matter what his qualifications
This person must have one magic crystal ball or some sort of time machine if he can with any accuracy predict that many years ahead.
It makes those that PREDICT that the market will bottom out or start to rise in say 12 months look rather more acceptable.
The simple fact is that we base forcasts on information at hand today and what history has told us, in reality its mainly guess work.Frank 8)
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It is all guess work. Possible to read in the Financial Times when someone makes a correct prediction but they don’t mention the day to day incorrect ones. I predict at least 5 years for the property market in Spain to pick up. Just been reading in Diario sur that British tourism is down 10% for January too. It is very quiet here, always seems the same amount of cars though 😕
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I can´t recall any world economic downturn lasting 15-20 years.
The cycle is usually 5-7 years, that would be – boom, crash, boom, over 5-7 years or vice versa, depending on how positiv a person one is. I suspect we are heading towards the middle of the crash right now 2008/9. As I have mentioned before, this present cycle began around the beggining of 2005.
So the upturn should begin 2009/10, assuming of course, there are no other nasty financial/political suprises around the corner.
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Be it s Bank Manager or Banker, my thoughts remain the same. i would not take action on the word of one persons thoughts alone, especially when it is the banks that have obviously over-loaned to the developers and in some instances for some projects which are allegedly not legal.
The Banks must also be to blame, as well as Developers and some purchasers.
A Developer with a dodgy developer is called a crook or conman, but the bank that funds it should surely be held accountable.
Secodly, can you compare Spain with Germany and Japan?
They are entirely different in social, economical, historical and every other type of background.
Are Spain world leaders in manufacturing, engineering, technology?“I can´t recall any world economic downturn lasting 15-20 years”
No me and if that happens, goodbye civilisation as we know it and everyone out with begging bowls.
Third world here we come. -
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I feel amongst all that is being said one has to understand that the Spanish love to exaggerate matters. This is perhaps reflected in the bank managers comments. I view that bankers take.
Banks relies on their in house economic cell/unit. In my experience i have never come across to economist agreeing. In todays world, no economy in the 1st & 2nd world can afford to be in doldrums for 15 years.
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If you read Bernard’s post it says “His (the banker) forecast is a complete economic collapse in Spain followed by a 15 to 20 year recession.”
No mention of a ‘world’ economic downturn.
As has already been mentioned, Japan has suffered a prolonged economic recession of approx 16 years.
Every economy has its unique circumstances, and its not possible to compare exactly, but you can draw parallels.
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“Japan has suffered a prolonged economic recession of approx 16 years” – But would you not agree that much of the blame there lies with the Vountry’s administration and not the world financial admisnistration, su-prime lending, etc?
Regarding the situation in the property market in Spain, anyone any thoughts on my comment “The Banks must also be to blame, as well as Developers and some purchasers.”, or am I alone on this train of thought.
Still believe that “15-20 years economic downturn” is forecastable, of for that matter possible unless someone knows something most don’t. Nuclear anyone?
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The Japanese economic model was built quite quickly after WW2. It began booming from the 60´s. However, the Japanese put too much faith in technology advancements. A good example was the Fujitsu semi-conductor plant in County Durham. They built a 360,000,000 pound high-tech factory to manufacture 8mb memory chips, only by the time the factory was built, the Americans we building 32mb chips. Fujitsu was able to compete and retool thier factory, however what followed was out of their control, each chip was to cost 50p and sell at 50 pounds, 2 years in and the sell price across the world was 50p so good bye 100 year business plan.
The Japanese banks work differently to the rest of the worlds banks. They don´t loan money at high interest rates to large companies as they know it cripples the enterprise. Japanese banks buy shares instead and expect to profit from dividends. Sounds very fair and noble until the industry or marketplace crashes. The Japanese banks are still recovering from their love affair with the silecone chip.
I suppose banks in Spain are more fortunate, in as much as they will have bricks and mortar when the repossess. It´s a damn sight better than an office full of Nintendo´s!
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Peter, your first paragraph illustrates one of the reasons why UK has lost much of its manufacturiring to the Far East.
An electronics company in UK needed to double its floor-space to keep up with demand. they knew the planning process prior to construction, could take 12 months.
The easy option was to move its base to Far East and when set up, set about extending the plant without the delay in planning.
When floor-space is needed in manufacturing, it is needed when the demand is there and not in say 3 years time, after planning, design and construction.You say “I suppose banks in Spain are more fortunate, in as much as they will have bricks and mortar when the repossess. It´s a damn sight better than an office full of Nintendo´s!” – Don’t know if I can agree with that 100% as with some of the build quality (or lack of) in Spain, you probably get as much for a used Nintendo as for a 2 bed apartment in some resort development!!!!
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@mg wrote:
But would you not agree that much of the blame there lies with the Vountry’s administration
It’s worth noting the report, we’re all discussing on this thread, has the following extract on the first page..
“If there is a recession, then most segments of the Spanish housing market are doomed to stagnant or falling prices for years to come. Look at what happened to Germany, Japan and Portugal.”
I don’t believe we should get bogged down with Japan’s circumstances, it was mentioned simply to illustrate the point about recession longevity.
Whether it be the wildly optimistic recovery forecasts (under review) of Bernard, or the wildly pessimistic forecast of his senior Banker associate, I still fail to see how predictions contribute anything of substance to the debate, nor understand why Bernard persists in posting them to the forum.
😕 😕
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@mg wrote:
Don’t know if I can agree with that 100% as with some of the build quality (or lack of) in Spain, you probably get as much for a used Nintendo as for a 2 bed apartment in some resort development!!!!
mg – Do you anticipate a large amount of Spanish apartments appearing on ebay – “Seller has 100% record regarding product but is rather poor at loaning to developers” 😉
There has to be a need for a worldwide repossession website on the ebay platform but specifically for the banks to despose of its repo´s.
Now that would be a good place for bargain hunters to go and bid!
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Dear Iano
Posting my own predictions and the opinions of others keeps this debate alive and I believe on track. After all we are trying to guess what comes next.
I fully support MGs comments as to culpability and I go further, it was done deliberately and as a result of collusion amongst professionals to earn fees and commissions.
I support Peter Good’s outlook that the property market is inherently cyclical and that these trends develop with a number of interruptions when other events have an influence. Generally it is, as far as Spain is concerned, quite Biblical, 7 good years followed by 7 bad. Must be the influence of the Catholic Church owning so much property and indeed owning one or two of the banks.
As to a 15 to 20 year economic recession in Spain, possibly an exagerration and time will tell. I am cautiously optimistic of a fragile and selective upturn from 2010 with setbacks and a firmer more general recovery from 2012.
A short summary, everyone bought what everyone thought someone else would buy and for more, and now nobody wants any of it.
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OK, I will no doubt be accused by a contributor as being “contentious”, purely for having an opinion of my own, but BH Banks, Developers, Leaders cannot predict to an accuracy of an “upturn from 2010 with setbacks and a firmer more general recovery from 2012”, to me, for those not involved in the property and financial markets, such as those you mention that anyone with knowledge and experience should post, for the novices to learn from, as it is unlikely that there is evidence to back that up, just a personal opinion, it is almost like agents telling purchasers that in 2010/2012 their property with be worth xxx.xxx€ and they will have had a rental income by then of xxxxx€.
A novice. Worried if they can afford to keep their profit and try an ride out the storm for a while.
You have stated that you are an expert or professional in the industry, or something similar, I can’t be bothered to trawl bac.
Should the novice now read your comment as Gospel, as an expert, and sell now irrespective, rather than perhaps lose all?
Why do you believe that after an upturn from 2010 with setbacks and a firmer recovery after. Is it possible that it would remain level for a couple of years?
Should we ask the Banker?
Should we believe the Banker?
Nobody knows.
If anyone can predict with such accuracy what lies ahead in 4 years time.
Hedge Funds for them.“everyone bought what everyone thought someone” – Not everyone. Some did, some who were clever did at the right time. Some who were greedy did. Some who just followed the crowd did. But there are many losers and many through their own fault.
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mg wrote:Should the novice now read your comment as Gospel, as an expert, and sell now irrespective, rather than perhaps lose all?
Anybody who bought houses in Spain as investments should try to sell ASAP. The value will be lower in 1 year time.
if the novice bought for personal use, then they will still be OK in 10 years from now.
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Blimey
There is so much guess work out there 😆
Seems like some guess work changes to suit various threads or what they read in the papers yesterday.
m.g. You requested a feed back on your posting regarding the banks and I agree .( saves all the hassle 😉 )
Ralita 🙂 Sell as prices will fall further,however no ones buying so thanks for that advice, NOT 😯Frank 8)
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In 1992 onwards, the spanish banks held on to lots of repossesions (for some years). This was because no-one was buying and they did not want to reduce the prices any further. They only started to release them in 1995…canny! I do know one or two who have withdrawn their properties from the listings since Xmas.
Seems to be more owners renovating/extending. -
“In 1992 onwards, the spanish banks held on to lots of repossesions (for some years). This was because no-one was buying” – But also, they suffer if they flood the market with properties.
An example being in UK, 3 years ago, a buy to let landlord was imprisoned for fraudulent mortgage applications, which he had amassed a portfolio of 300+ properties. His business was showing a good return, but he had broken the law and was imprisoned.
The portfolio was spread over just two towns and the Banks took the decsion to sell the premises gradually, as opposed to swamping the market with a further 300+ properties (supply and demand thing), which would be likely to devalue not only the affected premises, but others on the market. -
Just Frank wrote:Ralita
I refer you to m,g s last post,
Yer just guessing like everyone else.Frank 8)
I am not guessing anything. I am 100% certain that in 1 year from now prices will be lower.
People who hold the high prices will be very unhappy at the end.
I do not know what is going to happen in 2015-2020, but in 2009 prices willl be lower.
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Clearly Ralita is very close to what is going on in the market in her area today and has made a resonable assumption that in her mind prices will be lower in a year from now.
Longer term forecasts are more difficult to make and more uncertain.
As we get closer to the General Elections in Spain more information as to the true state of the economy is being revealed. Over the next few weeks we should have a greater level of transparency with which to judge more accurately what may lie ahead.
I remain optimistic in my forecast for a recovery in the medium term, but the immediate outlook is not comfortable and we should carefully consider the comments of Ralita and others who are operating in this market every day. They will be sensitive to a number of additional factors which will escape analysts and journalists.
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Ralita 🙂
As Bernard said its clear that you are confident that prices in your area will be lower next year ,by how much which brings you to post panic actions is anothet matter and this is the guess work I refer too. 😕
The price I paid for my property in 2003 would clearly not have risen but think I will hold fire to sell at a loss in anticipation that it will fall futher.
If it does I will simply have to hold any sale until markets improve.
My property in the U.K will probably fall in value this year in fact I am 100% sure it will but by how much is just guessing 😉 .Frank 8)
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Just Frank wrote:My property in the U.K will probably fall in value this year in fact I am 100% sure it will but by how much is just guessing 😉 .
Frank, you are not a BTL investor. If you were a BTL investor who bought in 2007, a 10% reduction in your UK property would not let you sleep at night.
Considering that you have a huge aount of equity in your UK house (as you told us), a 10% reduction is just a piece of cake.
This is the difference between an investor and somebody who has good equity in their houses/apartments.
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ralita/Just Frank:
If your property is in London than I do not feel that it will fall. Yes the likes of Leeds, Manchester, Liverpool, Birmingham are vulnerable. The repossession data the is being floated about need to be analysed on regional basis before coming to a more accurate position.Apart from the normal repossession for reasons of loss of employment, divorce etc. the position is very blured e.g I know someone who borrowed 100% rented the property out for three and a half year did not pay a penny in mortgage and after a period let the property be repossessed, pocketing the three and a half year rent of nearly £63,000 (£1500×42 months ) The same situation is endemic with the new build in Leads where overvaluation had given BTL landlords no out let of there’s at the time of the purchase and will be happy to let the property go.
Just Frank: Yes a fall is a fall. Having said this. The value from which you are basing your fall/increase is the estate agents perceived market price of the property. In my experience the 5%+/- is acadamic.
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Hi Shakeel 🙂
No I am not and thats just the point I am making.
All of the guess work of how much prices are going to fall is down to so many factors and you have pointed out just a couple.
These blanket statements that we should sell before the pending crash is worthless without some sort of clarity of why,where and on what basis these figures come from.Frank 8)
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Hi Frank
“All of the guess work of how much prices are going to fall is down to so many factors and you have pointed out just a couple.”Frank yes its all a guess work and keeps the forum going. If any one of us could have facts. He /she would be a very rich person & instead of contributing to the forum will passing their time be counting the sacks of money.
Again, for the sake of the format of the forum we have to make blanket/generic statements. If facts of all the cases are stated the forum will only be read by lawyers and the rest of us will go to sleep
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@Just Frank wrote:
Ralita 🙂
Hellooo 🙂 Its still a fall in value which ever way you look at it . 😉
Frank 8)
Well, it’s a bit more than that if you are still paying off a mortgage for an asset that you thought would provide a pension but which is in fact draining your savings and threatening any hope of a pension.
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@Just Frank wrote:
These blanket statements that we should sell before the pending crash is worthless without some sort of clarity of why,where and on what basis these figures come from.
Frank 8)
Could you sell? Even if you knocked 20% off would you sell relatively quickly?
Predictions of the future have got to be a guess, no one can predict the future. It’s like telling a naughty boy not to cross the street because with the increased traffic he is likely to be run over.
Well, what chance of him being run over? When? In what street? How come those other naughty boys didn’t get run over if it is so dangerous?
If you’re just tring to remain happy despite it all then fine, sorry to have bothered you.
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@Bernard Hornung wrote:
Clearly Ralita is very close to what is going on in the market in her area today and has made a resonable assumption that in her mind prices will be lower in a year from now.
Do you have to be close to the property market to come to such a conclusion? I’d keep my eye on the credit crunch, global economy, value of the pound against the euro, the perception of corruption in Spanish property, oversupply, and lack of facilities such as water as residents compete with golf courses. When these matters are resolved then I might visit Spain and have a look around.
@Bernard Hornung wrote:
As we get closer to the General Elections in Spain more information as to the true state of the economy is being revealed. Over the next few weeks we should have a greater level of transparency with which to judge more accurately what may lie ahead.
I hear that Spain has a budget surplus which Zapatero says he will spend if Spain goes into recession. I hope he spends it wisely, maybe knock a few buildings down?
@Bernard Hornung wrote:
I remain optimistic in my forecast for a recovery in the medium term, but the immediate outlook is not comfortable and
Why are you optimistic and what do you consider to be medium term?
@Bernard Hornung wrote:
we should carefully consider the comments of Ralita and others who are operating in this market every day. They will be sensitive to a number of additional factors which will escape analysts and journalists.
Are there any analysts and journalists that you would recommend? Just in case Ralita has it wrong.
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Dear Mike
Quoting me so many times leads me to assume you are looking for answers.
May I recommend that your Google “European Property Review” and when you reach the 2005 summary go to the chapter on second home ownership and carefully read the about the economic fundamentals which influence this market.
I am optimistic that there will be a recovery as Spain currently receives 57 million tourists each year. Right now the outlook is bleak and I expect an all out property crash followed by an economic recession as Spain is heavily dependent upon the construction sector.
Parts of Spain have been ruined, other parts of Spain have been improved. The interior of Spain is as striking as ever and many villages and towns are looking better than they have ever looked before. This will appeal to those looking to visit Spain and to those wishing to live in Spain.
Between now and 2015, some 500 airports will be built in China. When the Chinese have enough airports and aeroplanes with which to travel, tourism will grow exponentially and some of this will reach Spain.
I fear a complete wipe out in certain areas which have been degraded by overdevelopment and little or no hope of recovery in these areas unless there is some incentive to live there.
Conversely the better parts of Spain are attractive and here I forecast a selective recovery as buyers will trawl the country seeking out opportunities where they find value. Once there is an equilibrium in supply and demand this return to normality will create the necessary conditions for the market to return and it will.
As to timings, this is pure guess work and I have put forward my thoughts.
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“Between now and 2015, some 500 airports will be built in China. When the Chinese have enough airports and aeroplanes with which to travel, tourism will grow exponentially and some of this will reach Spain” – So obviously we are assuming that the Chinese will not suffer before 2015 any financial crisis which would result in people not being able to afford travel?
We are also assuming that there will be flights from these new airports, to Spain?
We assume that the airline companies will not suffer any financial setbacks, which will allow them growth to operate from so many airports.
Should we also assume that the current trend in the decline of tourism in Spain ( hasn’t CDS just had the quietest January since 2002), will not continue, but see an increase?
Are we to assum that “tourism will grow exponentially and some of this will reach Spain”, by the Chinese, will be greater that the loss of tourists from other Countries?
Should we all guess yes, just to make everything seem that in say 2 years, all will be OK, there will be no troubles with the institutions and everyone who wants a holiday home will buy in Spain, as no other Country compares.
Superb, every wait a year or two, risk your shirt in buying in Spain and see great rental returns and capital growth.
Isn’t that what developers and agents offered and could only see the positive?
One does that sort of thing when it suits. -
Dear MG
No.
Buyers will trawl the market seeking out opportunities where they find value, this may include Spain but not at the exclusion of other countries.
Please re-consider my previous posts on the motives for purchasing homes and also second homes.
Anything might happen in China between now and 2015, but the planning of 500 airports is one of several indications which with sufficient aeroplanes suggests a growth in the numbers of inbound and outbound tourists.
The world economy is not going to come to a grinding halt just because Spain has got itself into a mess. You have got to look at a much wider picture.
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BH, is that no to all the assumtions?
“Buyers will trawl the market seeking out opportunities where they find value, this may include Spain but not at the exclusion of other countries.” -So that reduces the potential considerably!!!
“Please re-consider my previous posts on the motives for purchasing homes and also second homes. ” – Why is there need?
“Anything might happen in China between now and 2015, but the planning of 500 airports is one of several indications which with sufficient aeroplanes suggests a growth in the numbers of inbound and outbound tourists. ” – But event if 5000 were planed, how many will be constructed and most of all, will there be enough passengers, you assume that everyone will be wealthy enough to travel, and a fair percentage will want to travel to Spain, assuming there will be flights?
“The world economy is not going to come to a grinding halt just because Spain has got itself into a mess.” – Would not have thought that anyone on hear is stupid enough to even give thought to that.
“You have got to look at a much wider picture” – Which is why more important than the “mess” Spain has got itself into, the the likes of the institutions will have a bearing on what happens and just because China are planning airports, means nothing.
Why not trawl to see how many airports worlwide are planned, let’s assume that they will have flights to Spain and there would be a fair capacity on each plane. Makes things look good eh?
The China thing you quote is just a joke. Would you suggest people maybe plan to purchase in 5 years time, just because China may build so many airports? Pleaaaase. -
Mike 🙂
You clearly have personal problems with decisions you have made.
Yes I do feel I could sell at 20% discount if the property I have was or will be legal one day.
Depending on you medium to long term situation on your pension you could also have had it in equities which have and may continue to prove a poor haven for your money as well
Happy ❓ No of course not however,its not life threatening and tend to not take all the gloom at face value while realising that things are not that well at the moment.
Take today as it is and let tomorrow worry about itselfFrank 8)
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Dear MG
My firm “No” is limited to your response, and in its entirety.
You should consider the WTO figures and judge for yourself what the outlook for World Tourism is. Very positive and I am bullish with regard to the tourism industry worldwide, partly because I am in it as a resort property developer and also because I take a day to day interest in what is happening in this vast industry.
Tourism in Spain is in decline now, and parts of Spain which once experienced above average growth in the number of tourists such as the CDS are suffering more than other parts of Spain. But overall the declining numbers are not cause for concern as after France, Spain still has the highest number of inbound tourists in Europe. I would concern myself if crime in Spain reaches unacceptable levels as this would stop tourism dead in its tracks and this is an area which Spain must address very seriously indeed. I include corruption and illegal construction.
There is nothing long term to suggest that this downward trend in tourism in Spain will continue without correction. At some stage prices will drop relative to other destinations and tourism will increase again.
My own assumptions are that as Spain falls off the edge of a cliff, which it will this year when the property market and banking industry crash along with many other sectors of the economy caught up in the ripple effect this will have, prices will fall and it will be more competitive as a tourist destination. I see tourism being a significant contributor in the economic recovery of Spain in the years ahead.
I have mentioned before that Spain is a country of extremes and my own outlook for Spain is an extreme downturn in the immediate future, followed by a return of confidence and a fragile and selective recovery in the property market and other areas of the economy.
My advice to any person thinking of buying property in Spain today is to be patient, to obtain utility value through renting, and to think very carefully before making a purchase.
I would not consider advising current owners of property in Spain without detailed knowledge of their present circumstances. I have advised a number of individuals who have approached me as a result of my postings on this forum and the majority have been grateful for the advice I have given them.
My expertise is based upon knowledge gained through experience and over 20 years living in Spain and nearly 2 in Portugal. I have never asked anyone to agree with what I have written but equally I have never found the need to be aggressive or rude when my own views have been diametrically opposed by others.
I contribute freely to this forum because I believe that we have much to learn from each other and I am grateful for all the comments made. I am saddened that you find the need to be so obtusive, and unhelpful.
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BH, So should we now base everything on the WTO and not what China may do?
“the WTO figures” – mentioned before, my in-house statistician takes great delight in making figures work either way.
“I am bullish with regard to the tourism industry worldwide” – and quite unique it seems when major operators of tourism are not.
partly because I am in it as a resort property developer and also because I take a day to day interest in what is happening in this vast industry.
“But overall the declining numbers are not cause for concern” – Perhaps we should tell the hoteliers, restauranteurs, shopkeepers, etc., No cause for concern.
“as after France, Spain still has the highest number of inbound tourists in Europe” – So what does that prove, don’t you realise that things can change.
“There is nothing long term to suggest that this downward trend in tourism in Spain will continue without correction. At some stage prices will drop relative to other destinations and tourism will increase again. ” – I assume that that is an opinion or gues, or as a result of a crystal ball?
What year will the correction be and in which year will it increase, please. I know many would welcome the information.“My advice to any person thinking of buying property in Spain today is to be patient” – But if you want to buy for your own enjoyment, why wait?
“I have advised a number of individuals who have approached me as a result of my postings on this forum” – I have declined to advise people who have contacted me.
Hope that if people you have advised and act on your advice, it will go well for them, otherwise, you may feel bad.“obtusive, and unhelpful” – Didn’t think I was, just have an opinion, which maybe does not have your seal of approval.
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BH, I did not expect a reply from you, as you tend not to reply to questions asked, but to post just what you want people to read.
Frank,
“Could that be because they were not asking a question” – Correct, not a question, but several from a few.But if don’t like the truth and it would make you happy, I will say that I have never been sent one single PM and never asked advice on one single occassion.
There, happy?
“With respect consider that some could pick an argument with a mirror” – What does make you such a bitter person, have you been conned or duped?
Quite sad really. -
@Bernard Hornung wrote:
Dear Mike
Quoting me so many times leads me to assume you are looking for answers.
Bernard, that is between you and your psychologist.
Getting on…….
@Bernard Hornung wrote:
May I recommend that your Google “European Property Review” and when you reach the 2005 summary go to the chapter on second home ownership and carefully read the about the economic fundamentals which influence this market.
You’ll have to provide a link, there are so many real estate cowboys that publish European Property Reviews that I may not find the review that you recommend.
@Bernard Hornung wrote:
I am optimistic that there will be a recovery as Spain currently receives 57 million tourists each year. Right now the outlook is bleak and I expect an all out property crash followed by an economic recession as Spain is heavily dependent upon the construction sector.
Parts of Spain have been ruined, other parts of Spain have been improved. The interior of Spain is as striking as ever and many villages and towns are looking better than they have ever looked before. This will appeal to those looking to visit Spain and to those wishing to live in Spain.
and?
@Bernard Hornung wrote:
Between now and 2015, some 500 airports will be built in China. When the Chinese have enough airports and aeroplanes with which to travel, tourism will grow exponentially and some of this will reach Spain.
Why?
@Bernard Hornung wrote:
As to timings, this is pure guess work and I have put forward my thoughts.
You have, but they were as valid as a 10 year old girl shouting very loud that she WILL have a pony!!
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Dear Mike
Google “European Housing Review” and on the first page you will reach the link to the 2005 Edition.
Go to chapter 2 on page 9. Second Home Boom.
RICS has over 100,000 members worldwide who contribute to this and many other reports.
Specifically as far as this review is concerned the author is professor Michael Ball of Reading University.
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But the “2005 Edition”, had not predicted, forecasted or taken into account, the state of the financial market, inflation in house costs for main home, drop in tourism, and why should they have, they are the same as everyone else and cannot forecast with such accuracy, just base their reports on statistics, trends, etc., which were available at the time.
For many years Yugoslavia was a favourite holiday destination but overnight that collapsed. -
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@Bernard Hornung wrote:
I fear a complete wipe out in certain areas which have been degraded by overdevelopment and little or no hope of recovery in these areas unless there is some incentive to live there.
Interesting snippet from the aforementioned RICs housing review of 2005 …
Tourism also appears to have peaked in the Spanish
coastal resorts as costs rise, crowding increases and cheaper
and more exotic locations become increasingly popular with
Europeans. As a result, output declined somewhat in 2004, though
it is still massive…and ‘output’ is still massive 4 years later.
It’s possible that even the ‘low-budget’ tourist is rather more discerning and worldly now, with more choices available, and even if prices plummet during a recession, it might not be enough to tempt them back to the Costas in great numbers as before.
Agree the outlook for Spain’s cultural and historical tourist centres are promising and the more likely destination for any middle-class Chinese long-haul tourists, who like to travel in groups.
As for the Costas, and an ‘incentive to live there’? I believe a good start would be a limit, or stop, on new planning applications, and some of the govts GDP budget surplus would not be wasted by investing in public works projects and improving urban infrastructure in the coastal areas.
I’d go further too, and the govt/juntas should compensate the few owners, and raze a lot of the uglier and empty ‘sink’ estates.
The chronic oversupply is the main problem and needs to be addressed, and action needs to be that radical now to get us out of this hole.
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@Bernard Hornung wrote:
Dear Mike
Google “European Housing Review” and on the first page you will reach the link to the 2005 Edition.
Go to chapter 2 on page 9. Second Home Boom.
The first link is dead, another link I found has comments on pages 8 and 9. I can’t be certain we are discussing the same thing which is why a link and a direct quote is always a good idea.
http://www.ipspain.co.uk/rics_european_housing_review_2005_08.htm
It was written in 2005 and discusses the 2004 market so it’s well out of date. Michael Ball says, of the 2004 market, that
land shortages are growing in coastal areas, as are infrastructure costs, throughout Europe. This may well raise long-run prices and encourage the periodic replacement of existing dwellings in desirable locations.
Trust me, they found more land on the coast and they did build a lot more property and the lack of infrastructure didn’t stop them.
@Bernard Hornung wrote:
RICS has over 100,000 members worldwide who contribute to this and many other reports.
Specifically as far as this review is concerned the author is professor Michael Ball of Reading University.
I can only imagine it’s his title that impresses you because Michael Ball’s 2005 prediction has proved hopelessly wrong, hasn’t it?
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Dear MG
You need to read Chapter 2 of The European Housing Review of 2005 and come away with just the headings, the factors which influence the second home markets. List these headings and now apply them to the situation in which we find ourselves today.
Iano has made a good point, that unless output is reduced, stopped, or even decreased by being removed by demolition, certain areas of Spain which have been degraded by overdevelopment will have little or no hope of recovery unless there is an incentive to live there. Also they will cause long term social problems, ghettoes will be established, and once an area is full of depravity it removes hope from peoples minds, leads to massive unemployment, crime and despair.
Other areas of Spain have been improved and do present very attractive tourism and lifestyle offers, with fairer value. As the market is more educated and more informed future prospect tourists and purchasers will seek for themselves the opportunties which they have and they will make choices having trawled the market place to obtain value and the product desired.
As for Mike’s coments, I have no problem if my contributions are considered to be inspired by complete guess work and should any 10 year old girl really want a pony, I would be delighted to introduce a new resort concept which I am developing in Portugal. Houses for those who are at home in the saddle.
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Dear Mike
You are on the right page. Michael Ball is actually right. A few years ago a plot of land overlooking the Royal Sotogrande Golf Course extending to some 9,694 square metres was sold for 10 million Euros. The property on it demolished and a new one built. There are many other similar examples on the same estate.
That plot of land had originally been zoned for development in 1966 and sold at a few Ptas per square metre. Where there is shortage and quality prices have held and have increased dramatically.
Conversely in less desirable areas and where there is a surplus prices have suffered a downfall and may deteriorate further, through lack of demand.
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@Just Frank wrote:
Mike 🙂
You clearly have personal problems with decisions you have made.Frank, I have so many regrets and I have made so many mistakes, trust me. I’ve come to the conclusion that I can never go too far wrong in life because no matter what mistake I make there always seems to be opportunities to make some more. I enjoy it.
However, it is only the Spanish property market that obsesses me. I know, I should take medication.
@Just Frank wrote:
Yes I do feel I could sell at 20% discount if the property I have was or will be legal one day.
Sorry about that, Frank. I hope it does get made legal and you sell at a price you are comfortable with.
@Just Frank wrote:
Depending on you medium to long term situation on your pension you could also have had it in equities which have and may continue to prove a poor haven for your money as well
I can’t disagree there.
@Just Frank wrote:
Happy ❓ No of course not however,its not life threatening and tend to not take all the gloom at face value while realising that things are not that well at the moment.
Take today as it is and let tomorrow worry about itselfFrank 8)
Best of luck and I hope you continue to enjoy life
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“Thank you for that waffle reply,not that I could understand it that much.
( no suprise there ) ” – No, I am learning who on here can and cannot understand common sense, what is fact and what is hope.“Yep been duped over the planning issue but no one to blame but myself.
Not the first time and wont be the last but as always its just a sitution that I will deal with. ” – As long as you learn. Experience can be costly but good education.“That’s because of the political situation. Yugoslavia disintergrated” – No disputed, but it does show that for whatever the reason, a market can be wiped out.
“the factors which influence the second home markets” – But almost worldwide the holiday home market is dead compared to a couple of years ago, irrespective of what “experts” predicted and forecasted, including the RICS.
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@Bernard Hornung wrote:
Dear Mike
You are on the right page. Michael Ball is actually right. A few years ago a plot of land overlooking the Royal Sotogrande Golf Course extending to some 9,694 square metres was sold for 10 million Euros. The property on it demolished and a new one built. There are many other similar examples on the same estate.
A few years ago, Bernard. This happened a few years ago. Things were great a few years ago.
@Bernard Hornung wrote:
That plot of land had originally been zoned for development in 1966 and sold at a few Ptas per square metre. Where there is shortage and quality prices have held and have increased dramatically.
Holding land for 42 years is very long term. And Torremolinos was a very new concept in 1966.
@Bernard Hornung wrote:
Conversely in less desirable areas and where there is a surplus prices have suffered a downfall and may deteriorate further, through lack of demand.
Are there any desirable areas left on the coast?
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Dear Mike
Investment in property is made safer by taking a medium to long term view. People should think very carefully before purchasing any property.
I am saddened to note that there may be no area of coastline left in Spain which has not been spoilt. These are certainly my own feelings and why I made a conscious decision to move away from the coast and to never develop property on any coastline ever again. I saw at first hand what greed did to the decision making process embarked upon by the property developers I once represented. I do not feel comfortable with some of the things I once took part in. I am ashamed by this.
I feel for all those who have been misled and for those who through no fault of their own are suffering as a result of the criminal activities of others. I am particularly sensitive to my own fellow countrymen.
As to the holiday home market being dead, I question that such a large market ever existed in the first place. I maintain that the genuine end user demand never reached the scale perceived, and that the horizons reached were attained through pure speculation.
As to the future it is anyone’s guess, but even if it is for your own enjoyment I would not buy property in Spain or indeed in any coastal resort today. I feel that the same utility value can be obtained through renting and perhaps a greater level of enjoyment derived by not having to worry about a declining property market.
My own views are that single use seaside resorts suffer from seasonality and are simply unsustainable. Golf was added to lengthen the season and this was an excellent idea until the golf offer began to exceed the steady growth in demand and now there are too many golf courses which are not achieving the number of green fees required to keep them profitable.
Water is becoming increasingly scarce and there is mounting tension between environmentalist groups and golf course developers, with extreme views held on each side not helping to resolve the differences that lie between them. I am sure that design and technology can go a long way towards water conservation. There is no need to be so set apart.
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Hi Mike 🙂
HiFrank, I have so many regrets and I have made so many mistakes, trust me. I’ve come to the conclusion that I can never go too far wrong in life because no matter what mistake I make there always seems to be opportunities to make some more. I enjoy it.
However, it is only the Spanish property market that obsesses me. I know, I should take medication.
Well on this we agree 100%thank fully I make more good ones than bad 😕
If you dont make decisions you wont make mistakes or succeed for that matter.
Thing is we have to live with them and deal in our own different ways.
I choose the balls I made a c-ck up and do everything I can to repair the damage even if it means 19 hour days and yes more decisions,Those that dont make decisions and sit on the fence are the first to give so called advice.
Our experiences give the qualifications to put or pennies worth in 😉 .Look at the guy that put 50p on the horses last week and won a million.
Yet there are boring ole f=rts that say you shouldnt bet .
( better get the tin hat on again 🙄 )The anti gamblers association will probably be after me as well.Frank 8)
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Hi all, this thread is particularly depressing to read for any owners of Spanish property. Would the Marbella to Sotogrande coastline also fit into an area which you consider has no future? I have read that in the next 5 – 10 years they will spend billions on infrastrucuture on the costa del sol including the expansion of Malaga and Gibralter airports. coastal railways etc. Would this help the mkt? I believe people are also still moving there so presumably there is still some demand. I think the main issue is the over supply. The question being is will the local governments and developers realise this and halt any future building plans until demand catches up?
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“Look at the guy that put 50p on the horses last week and won a million”.
I did, and thought how he made a decidedly safer bet on his 8-horse accumulator than purchasing property in Spain at the moment.@Just Frank wrote:
Those that dont make decisions and sit on the fence are the first to give so called advice.
Our experiences give the qualifications to put or pennies worth in 😉I would have thought “so-called advice” from those clever enough to be “sitting” on the fence at the moment (with their money nicely tucked up in the bank) was worth considering.
Can’t see how it is any less worthy than advice from people whose only qualifications are that they are “sitting” on one or two illegal builds and/or perhaps used to be an agent selling these illegal builds.
I know whose advice I would consider as ‘so-called’.
Aren’t you getting a bit carried away there Frank with a touch of self-importance? 😉
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@callal wrote:
The question being is will the local governments and developers realise this and halt any future building plans until demand catches up?
Doubt it. Especially when an 18-apartment project is approved by three levels of government – the local Town Hall, the Junta de Andalucía, and the Development Ministry, and is to be built 10 metres from the beach in Almería despite there also being archaeological interest. This goes against the Junta’s own regulations.
Personally, I can’t see anything changing in the future, the authorities look only for cheap PR for doing something constructive like pulling down the Prior’s house. Meanwhile, building and corruption continues whenever it suits the powers-that-be.
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“The question being is will the local governments and developers realise this and halt any future building plans until demand catches up?” – Let’s assume they did. It is claimed that there are a couple of million unsold properties?
How many years will it take to off-load that number, especially in view of the falling market for such properties.
10, 15, 20+ years, by which time majority would only be fit for demolition. -
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@callal wrote:
why do the developers keep building if there is now no mkt at all for their product. Surely sooner or later they will have to stop completely or face complete financial disaster. What areas are most effected by the overbuilding or are we referring to the entire Spanish coast?
Once a builder recieves ther building licence they a are given a date by which they must begin. If the said builder has paid several million euro´s for the planning application then they must get on with it.
During the building process there must be many promotors wishing they had never applied to build at all.
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I think that Mark has summed up the situation once or twice before. Spain has allowed itself to become a real estate junkie. Hooked on bricks and concrete.
Unless property development stops where there is already oversupply, the market will continue to fall. MG is right, the buildings will not sell, and by the time the market catches up they will only be fit for demolition. Some are only fit for demolition now.
Estimates suggest an oversupply of up to 4 million housing units, for a possible and falling demand of less than 100,000 each year. This could take half a century to unwind and longer if more housing stock is continously added.
I am certain that as Peter Good states, several developers really wish they had never applied for a building licence.
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@Just Frank wrote:
Hi Charlie, Yet another posting which was uncalled for.
Uncalled for ❓
You made a statement about advice (and ‘so-called’ advice re. fence-sitters). You gave your opinion and I gave mine which like you I am allowed to do.
Why get so upset just because I didn’t happen to agree with you? Relax. -
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@Just Frank wrote:
……you appear hell bent on trying to cause upset to anyone in your path.
Not me Frank, that’s your department.
I simply replied to a statement that I felt was off-key and gave my opinion. Sorry if it ticked you off but there you go. It’s a forum.Yassas Oliver, ola kala. 😉
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@Just Frank wrote:
……and no reason to take the threads off track.
😆
That’s cute considering you’re quoting a post from another totally different thread. Keep on track now.It’s a shame Peter didn’t bother to read my post properly, he wouldn’t have got himself so upset. Will try and point him in the right direction later – have to take the dog for a walk. Just a hint Frank, you’ll find my reply to Peter over on the other thread.
Now why don’t you let all this drop so this thread really can go back to being on track. -
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Dear All
With apologies to Professor Michael Ball and all those who contribute to The European Housing Review.
If you had all read this report as I did back in 2005, you would have reached the same conclusions as I reached, and benefitted from the information provided by one of the most erudite analysts in this industry.
“There are four reasons to believe that second, holiday and retirement home markets are likely to be more volatile than primary homes markets.
1 Demand is more discretionary than in primary home markets
Second homes are not as essential to consumers as their main residences, so when times are tough they are likely to be sold first and sellers are more likely to accept lower prices for them in order to realise cash. Interest rate or other economic shocks,
therefore, are more likely to be felt more strongly in second home markets than in primary ones. The same is true for retirement homes – moves, after all, can be put off for a year or two – and investment demand, which depends on another discretionary element of private consumption – holidays – as well as prevailing interest rates and property yields.2 Lenders are more likely to be concerned about defaults
The previous demand factor feeds into the likelihood of borrowers keeping up mortgage payments. Some second home owners may abandon their homes to creditors when interest rate burdens rise, whereas primary resident owners are likely to be more
tenacious at trying to keep their homes. Credit crunches, when borrowers become reluctant to lend because of real or expected default levels, therefore, are more likely to occur in these markets than primary ones. Once a slide starts in an area dominated by second and holiday homes, the greater is the likelihood that a drying up of credit will exacerbate the market decline there.3 There is no fallback demand
A feature of primary markets is that some households are priced out during booms, particularly first-time buyers. During downturns, affordability improves and, so, they are induced into purchase, acting as a dampener on potential falls in demand. Apart from some bargain hunters, second home markets have no such group to fall back on.4 The supply-side is more likely to transmit volatility
Feast or famine is more likely in second home markets than primary ones. Both supply states tend to generate more price volatility than markets with more normal supply environments. When supply is very low, all variations in demand are transmitted through prices, downwards as well as upwards. When supply is very high, developers (that generally will be highly geared) can easily over-estimate demand and be forced to sell-off at distressed prices, pushing down demand in a spiral as price expectations reverse.The scale of the recent European second home boom, therefore, must raise worries. Such housing markets are now some of the most risky in Europe, and are among those most likely to be subject to downward adjustments. Even so, there is no certainty
that they will experience a serious correction. Of course, that is the nature of risk. Instead, a soft landing may occur. Yet, that argument is not as strong as it is in primary housing markets for the reasons just stated.On the bright side, the outlook for 2005 does not suggest that a market destabilising shock is just around the corner. Interest rates are low. Inflation may be creeping up but the European economy is slowing, and that alone may be sufficient to dampen inflation and head-off interest rate rises. Nonetheless, interest rates are believed to be below their long-run equilibrium levels, and will rise at some stage. In addition, some key second home sources of demand have already seen their own housing markets falter, most notably the UK.
Much depends on confidence in the future of price rises in second home markets. Such sentiment is hard to predict, volatile and easily influenced by unforeseen events. Overall, the longer the second homes markets boom, the greater is the chance that shocks will lead to serious short-term declines. Such a statement may be a truism, but it should not be forgotten that this means it is obviously true rather than trivial.”
No honest or rational person with the knowledge and experience that I now have could possibly suggest buying a second home in an overbuilt tourist area in Spain today, without first explaining the risks of so doing.
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Forgive me Bernard as I am clearly a ignoramus in these matters my only qualification is, i hope, common sense. I do have trouble understanding the apparent separation of Spain from the rest of Europe in your posts.
Would you say that Portugal is going to escape any future crash in demand for a second, holiday or retirement home. Or is it a special case and therefore a good investment?
Regards
Paul
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p800aul wrote:Forgive me Bernard as I am clearly a ignoramus in these matters my only qualification is, i hope, common sense. I do have trouble understanding the apparent separation of Spain from the rest of Europe in your posts.
Would you say that Portugal is going to escape any future crash in demand for a second, holiday or retirement home. Or is it a special case and therefore a good investment?
Regards
Paul
Of course crash will be similar everywhere.
Portugal might be a good investment if you find a good place with buiding land for 10K Euro.
The complexes of houses/apartments in Algarve or other developed areas in Portugal are as expensive as the ones in Spain and will crash just as bad.
Same is true for Greece, Cyprus, Malta, Italy. Turkey, etc, etc, etc.
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It would seem fairly certain that it ´s going to be a worldwide crash, with a few possible exeptions. But I think Spain will be hit hardest due to the property overhang. Portugul, Greece and other “dream home” destinations don´t appear to have built up such a huge over-supply.
Also the construction industry here in Spain is much larger and a more important contributor to the Spanish economy than these other countries, so the loss of jobs will be greater as will the strains placed upon the economy.
In a sense perhaps Bernard is right in focusing the effects of the crash on Spain. It is perhaps the building capital of Europe.
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“Portugul, Greece and other “dream home” destinations don´t appear to have built up such a huge over-supply. “
But Portugal and Greece have not been as big a tourist attraction as Spain, therefore, fewer the people have visitied so fewer the potential purchasers and as a result, fewer developments.
Developers and agents may have been called crooks and conmen, but at the end of the day, untill the drop-off, they were market led.
As quick as they announced a new development, people were flocking to buy off plan.
When the cruch came, as they were catering for the market, there had to be over supply.
How many new units constructed or under construction in Spain and how many in Portugal?
What percentage tourist figures does Portugal have to Spain.
Portugal, yup, get the cheap flights going in, credit squeeze coming off and in a few years time, perhaps a mini Spain – Disaster. -
Portugal will suffer from the Spanish fallout, as will other tourist areas. Spain will suffer most for all the good reasons given in the various posts since my last, and indeed because its financial system is also lacking in liquidity. Spain had the biggest trip and now it faces the longest cold turkey.
None of us are going to come out of this unscathed, and property investment today needs very careful analysis and thought.
I have run for cover, away from Spain, away from a tourist area, away from the coast, away from just second homes to a mixed use residential development with a multi use resort near to a capital city and where the largest development project in Southern Europe will be rolled out over the next 9 years.
The investment risks still exist and I may be totally wrong, but with a budget of 6 billion Euros being dumped on the local economy there should be enough gravy for everyone to get splashed.
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BH “property investment today needs very careful analysis and thought.” – Thought it always did, but I have only 20+ years as an investor, so what would I know.
“where the largest development project in Southern Europe will be rolled out over the next 9 years. ” – So much like the developers said about Spain 10-15 years ago. Hope that in 10 years Portugal won’t be ruined and go the same way.
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Not necessarily MG.
There are moments in the economic cycle when it is easier to predict market trends, and without much thought and analysis you can get lucky.
Markets today are in turmoil and investment decisions hazardous.
Clearly the construction of one of the new transit hubs required in Europe is not going to leave the countryside looking as it does now.
Portugal will not go the same way as Spain. The Portuguese learn by their mistakes and although some areas were ruined many years ago, property development in Portugal is now more tightly controlled.
Capital Cities receive much more tourism than exotic resorts in far flung places and coastal resorts which suffer from seasonality. International airports offer enduring economic prosperity, as do improved infrastructure, communications, and inward investment.
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Bernard Hornung wrote:I have run for cover, away from Spain, away from a tourist area, away from the coast, away from just second homes to a mixed use residential development with a multi use resort near to a capital city and where the largest development project in Southern Europe will be rolled out over the next 9 years.
.There are many other capital cities in the newly admitted countries in European Union. They all have multi-billion Euro projects and capitals which extend (Hungary, Romania, Cech Republic, Slovakia, etc).
Portugal is nothing special.
I hope you did not write all the long messages just to make people purchase polo properties near Lisbon…
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I don’t buy this Chinese argument. Will they all be coming to visit the new Disney World on the CDS?
British people undoubtedly have a soft spot for Spain. The Germans have fallen out of love with Spain. It’s never really been all that popular with tourists across the world in general has it? If you’re traveling from the other side of the world I would think that destinations like London, Paris, Rome are a lot more famous. Maybe you know something more about Chinese culture than I do BH, but if they come to Spain, I think it would probably be to watch Barca or Real Madrid, but then again the Premiership is probably a bigger brand over there, because there are more Asian stars playing in the English league.
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Dear Ralita
Europe needs 10 new transit hubs and one of these wil be built in Portugal. Others will be built elsewhere in Europe including in the new EU countries. They will benefit as well.
I am happy to be in the one I chose to be as I love this part of Portugal, my job and horses, and there is more to life than just thinking about money.
But I guess that you have to be a 10 year old girl screaming for a pony to be interested in what I am developing.
As for the Chinese, I think we have touched on this before Forestfire, and the summer rush to the beach is not the attraction. At the moment it is very much Paris and London but it will spread. I am currently hosting Hua Shan and his wife as their 18 year old son is competing in a three day event in Portugal. This is the first time that a Chinese competitor has taken part in such an event in Portugal.
There are firsts in history and you can wake up each morning and make things happen that change your life and other lives too. When others say no, get up and forward go.
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“There are moments in the economic cycle when it is easier to predict market trends, and without much thought and analysis you can get lucky. “
– As every property investor knows. But that involves luck and not skill and everyone gets a bit of luck sometime in their life.
It is comments like that though, from a self confessed investor and millionaire, thay may tempt the novice to try their luck, which I thought that you BH, are against trying to tempt the novice?“Portugal will not go the same way as Spain. The Portuguese learn by their mistakes and although some areas were ruined many years ago, property development in Portugal is now more tightly controlled.” – The exact same thing that they said when they started developing Lanzarote. They would not follow mainland and Tenerife. If you don’t know the Island, take a visit and see what has happened.
BH, I don’t think you are being realistic. If Portugal takes off big time for tourism, do you think that you and one or two others could stop mass development?In early days I did ask if you were an agent trying to promote something. OK, so not an agent, but you do seem to be trying to drum up support for your propasal, which would take more that contributing to a forum, or will it be next we will be invited to become shareholders in the project?
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@Bernard Hornung wrote:
As for the Chinese…At the moment it is very much Paris and London but it will spread.
Well, as the man says, it appears the Chinese are coming!
http://www.iht.com/articles/2008/02/26/europe/journal.php?page=1
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Good Morning MG
Portugal is a small and very poor country and tourism here is unlikely to reach spectacular levels. There are the traditional hot spots, but relative to Spain they are microscopic.
If Spain suffers a downfall so will Portugal and therefore I am not offering property investment in Portugal as an alternative.
As to pushing this resort I feel it unlikely that my contributions to this forum will have any direct effect whatsoever as what I am doing is so very different to what the majority are looking for in Spain.
Katy feels that I am grooming her by knocking Spain. I believe that Spain is such an attractive country that its future prosperity will be derived from tourism and residential tourism, but that this will no longer manifest itself in overbuilt and over priced areas. Spain is like the Curate’s egg- good in parts.
My advice to anyone thinking of buying in Spain is to travel the entire country and discover for yourself what you really want out of Spain before you buy.
I contribute to this forum because I admire Mark and his work as I do the work of other leading intellectuals such as Michael Ball. People of this calibre have been instrumental in getting me out of the biggest hole I ever got myself into, and if I can share my success with others I am pleased to do so.
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BN, well done again on avoiding the points mentioned and just stating what you wish people to read.
Are you a failed politician by any chance?Can you give us all a 100% assurance that Portugal will never be over-developed and no high rise?
If so, you have more power that the Government that controls the likes of Spain and Canary islands.
Read what Manrique’s vision, which was supported by the Government, was and take a trip to witness what has happened.
I think it possible that Spain has learned to live with illegal builds, etc., after seeing what has happened in the Canaries.“My advice to anyone thinking of buying in Spain is to travel the entire country and discover for yourself what you really want out of Spain before you buy. ” – So should the same be said if you are considering purchasing in USA, Italy, France, UK, etc.?
If so, you will spend your life travelling a Country so will have no time left in your holidy home.
Spain is quite a large Country, as you know.“I contribute to this forum because I admire Mark and his work as I do the work of other leading intellectuals such as Michael Ball. ” – Don’t know what that has got to do with anything?
You think that Mark is good at his job, also Michael Ball. What is the point of that, has anyone said they are not good at what they are paid for?
I think the local road sweeper is good at his job, but it is what he is paid for. -
Bernard Hornung wrote:My advice to anyone thinking of buying in Spain is to travel the entire country and discover for yourself what you really want out of Spain before you buy.
Bernard, you forget something important.
Most of the people want to stay near the Sea/Ocean, have much better weather than UK and have airports close-by.
Asturia and Galicia are quite cold and rainy, Pirinei area is again cold and far from airports.
Caceres and Toledo have hot summers and cold winters.
I hope you do not expect people to move there because they like a particular church…
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Dear MG
I have never been a politician. I cannot guarantee what may or may not happen on this planet, let alone in Portugal.
This debate is about the property market in Spain. Comparisons are useful and appropriate.
Mark Stucklin and Michael Ball are respected analysts in their field.
I have answered you and others fully.
Spain is a large country which is why it is still good in parts. It may take you a long time to tour Spain but there are no short cuts to a job well done. But I do agree that if you are the road sweeper then this process will take time.
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BH, again just what you want people to read.
Can you give us all a 100% assurance that Portugal will never be over-developed and no high rise?
If so, you have more power that the Government that controls the likes of Spain and Canary islands.
Read what Manrique’s vision, which was supported by the Government, was and take a trip to witness what has happened.
I think it possible that Spain has learned to live with illegal builds, etc., after seeing what has happened in the Canaries.“My advice to anyone thinking of buying in Spain is to travel the entire country and discover for yourself what you really want out of Spain before you buy. “
So should the same be said if you are considering purchasing in USA, Italy, France, UK, etc.?“I contribute to this forum because I admire Mark and his work as I do the work of other leading intellectuals such as Michael Ball. ” – Don’t know what that has got to do with anything?
You think that Mark is good at his job, also Michael Ball.
What is the point of that, has anyone said they are not good at what they are paid for? -
Ralita
I understand preferences but a clement climate and proximity to the sea is not a panacea for everything Spain has to offer.
MG I have done my best to answer you. I cannot guarantee what may happen in Portugal or what developments may be permitted. I can give you an assurance that for the moment the Portuguese appear to be far more careful than their neighbours.
As for exploring the entire world for a possible home, may I suggest that if you are that lacking in focus, give up and stay put where you are.
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Bernard Hornung wrote:Ralita
I understand preferences but a clement climate and proximity to the sea is not a panacea for everything Spain has to offer.There are many other countries which offer historical places and good food.
If we talk about places with jobs, Spain does not have many outside the big cities.
So I do not think that many people would be interested in purchasing property except on the Costas or nearby and in big cities. The rest of Spain is a good place to visit but that’s it.
About Portugal the good thing is that the holiday house market is so saturated that very few people are currently interested so, indeed, there is no incentive to build huge touristic areas in Portugal. Maybe in 10-15 years from now.
MG is right. The decission to purchase a holiday house cannot be influenced by a nice holiday in Spain or Italy. One needs to travel in many places around the world before deciding which country is preferable and which area inthat country suits her/his tastes.
There are no more slogans “buy now before being priced out” or “land is limited”.
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BH.
“MG I have done my best to answer you. I cannot guarantee what may happen in Portugal or what developments may be permitted.”
So you do accept there is a possibility of mass, maybe even over, development then.“I can give you an assurance that for the moment the Portuguese appear to be far more careful than their neighbours.”
As did the Canarian Government did in support of Manriques guidelines.
Take a look at Lanzarote now.“As for exploring the entire world for a possible home, may I suggest that if you are that lacking in focus, give up and stay put where you are.”
So prospective purchasers. Please listen to BH, the voice of authority.
If you would like a place in Spain:
“My advice to anyone thinking of buying in Spain is to travel the entire country and discover for yourself what you really want out of Spain before you buy. ” or if you act on the latest advice “As for exploring the entire world for a possible home, may I suggest that if you are that lacking in focus, give up and stay put where you are.”
So does that mean your should explore the whole of Spain, or if you need to do that, you shouldn’t consider buying? -
Dear MG
My advice to anyone thinking of buying in Spain assumes that the person concerned has already narrowed down their choices to include Spain. Travelling the country is not difficult or indeed excessively time consuming. It is what any reasonably educated individual would readily consider doing particularly before buying a residential property for their own use.
I agree with Ralita with regard to second homes in Portugal. The market is saturated and Portugal has a small and declining population. The estimated surplus is currently some 200,000 second homes.
Sadly the temptation to over build will always be with us but with a property market which has been in recession since 2000, the appetite for residential property development in Portugal is reduced, although the risk of the country being degraded by over development in the future cannot be discounted.
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My mistake, I thought I read “My advice to anyone thinking of buying in Spain is to travel the entire country and discover for yourself what you really want out of Spain before you buy. “
But then you say “assumes that the person concerned has already narrowed down their choices to include Spain.” Hope so, otherwise why would they be there.
“Travelling the country is not difficult or indeed excessively time consuming.” – I did not realise you were talking about a drive or fly through.
How long would you guess that it would take to travel throughout Spain to observe whatever it is you think someone should obserrve, before a decision is made, bearing in mind if someone is re-locating in UK, they may spend a week or so in the location of their choice, to see what is what and where is where, and that is in a Country they know.“It is what any reasonably educated individual would readily consider doing particularly before buying a residential property for their own use.” – So many that you read of are obviously not “reasonably educated”, can’t disagree with that.
“although the risk of the country being degraded by over development in the future cannot be discounted. ” – So obviously you now consider that perhaps they may not have learned from their neighbours mistakes?
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Dear MG
I have no difficulty in suggesting the entire country. In knowledge lies wisdom and in wisdom success.
As to how long this process may take depends upon the knowledge already held, methods and means of travel, and a genuine willingness to investigate options. Some will be more thorough than others, for some it may take years and for others a few weeks.
As far as learning from mistakes. I believe that the current government is acutely aware of the dangers of degrading a relatively small country by over developing it. However I do not discount that in the future different individuals in government make different decisions, although the trend worldwide is towards recognising the earth’s limited and finite biocapacity.
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“the current government is acutely aware of the dangers of degrading a relatively small country by over developing it.” – As they were/are in the Canaries.
“As to how long this process may take depends upon the knowledge already held, methods and means of travel, and a genuine willingness to investigate options” – So not really worth recommending then, as people who have knowledge would not need to trawl and those without, shouldn’t consider?
BH, you certainly do seem to change from one comment to another.
“However I do not discount that in the future different individuals in government make different decisions” – So you obviously agree that they may not have learned and that anything is possible, even in Portugal?
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Dear MG
Absolutely not.
Someone who has sufficient knowledge would have completed the process advised whereas someone who does not have this knowledge should be urged to discover what Spain has to offer.
As far as learning lessons is concerned how can we possibly guarantee the decisions which may be made by future generations?
You are clutching at straws and making a fool of yourself.
I remain steadfast in my opinions, as written by me and not as selectively quoted out of context by you.
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“You are clutching at straws and making a fool of yourself. ” – If that is what you believe, so be it.
I just think it is quite sad that you try to promote your proposed development on here and claim that you can speak on behalf of the Government of Portugal, as to what will and will not be allowed in the way of development in the Country.
“Portugal will not go the same way as Spain.”
“The Portuguese learn by their mistakes”You then quote reports and statistics regarding matteres such as airports in China, numbers of tourists. Values on properties decreasing, but previouslu have mentioned “Statistics are like bikinis, they reveal what is interesting and hide what is vital. “
Making a fool of yourself???
And still jot replies to questions asked. -
@Bernard Hornung wrote:
But I guess that you have to be a 10 year old girl screaming for a pony to be interested in what I am developing.
Well, as long as she doesn’t kid herself that she’s an investor
@Bernard Hornung wrote:
There are firsts in history and you can wake up each morning and make things happen that change your life and other lives too. When others say no, get up and forward go.
That was the same kind of attitude they had in Spain. On spectacular loser in property tried to justify himself by pointing out that he had at least tried something. I don’t think he even got a slap on the back.
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Dear MG and Mike
If those are your views then fine. My posts are not intended to promote my own development. I have other methods at my disposal.
I have quoted statistics, people and a myriad of other sources.
I remain absolutely intransigent over what I have contributed to this forum as I feel that at the moment there are unusually high risks in investing in residential property and that these risks are greater in some areas than in others. Parts of Spain are vulnerable as is the Spanish economy. Portugal is also suffering and will suffer more.
I advise caution, patience and obtaining utility value through renting. How that helps me to promote my own development is beyond me.
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Bernard 🙂
What ever and however you reply will result in the same copy and pasting exercise alongside portraying you in the light of their choice.
You are here with your own motives and sadly thats how you have been labelled and trust me that label sticks.
I for one think that your postings are great but there again I have a brain of my own and never follow the leader in the hope that I am accepted in some clicky club.
This thread is ideal to express your views and experiences and may be those that have never had hands on experience should avoid exposing their short falls.
Your experiences are very important to many of us and from what I see you are prepared to listen and account for what others say as we all learn something new everyday (well some anyway 😉 )Frank 8)
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Thank you Frank
Inevitably by contributing to an open forum you expose yourself to dangers and abuse. I have no difficulty with that or even with the opinions which MG and Mike may have about me or what my motives are.
The questions asked of me were answered to the best of my ability and how they have reached their own conclusions is their own affair.
This is an open debate on a comprehensive and well balanced report delivered by an individual who has been instrumental in keeping other peoples best interests at heart, as I have attempted to do.
I have been completely transparent as to my position. If MG and Mike think that they can rattle an ex Guards Officer, then I wish them all the very best. Keep digging.
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BH, now you have reduced it to a farce, maybe a child’s game.
Next you will be claiming your source of statistics is the only one worth believing (mines better than yours). Be realistic and appreciate that there are others out there who are much better qualified than you or me, but please give credit to people for having common sense, let alone business sense.
Statistics, I have my own in-house statistician, so am well aware how figures can be manipulated.
Not that I am saying the figures of any statistician should be relied upon.
If statistics are possibly suspect, what is the point in quote the Chinese possibility?“If MG and Mike think that they can rattle an ex Guards Officer,” – What the heck is that all about, next we will be having family history and anything else that comes along, to try and get a bit of respect.
General, Commander, Chief of Police, what is that to do with the topic?
What was the chaps name (I didn’t get where I am today by?).Paddy – Yes
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In my opinion, an expert is someone who will know tomorrow why the things he predicted yesterday didn’t happen today.
But we can all have a good ol’ guess – which is why I find a discussion like this thread interesting.Keep debating gentlemen – at least you are conducting the discussion with decorum. Those that don’t enjoy it needn’t read it.
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Dear MG
It may be more conducive and less distracting for others for you to pursue your differences with me privately by e-mail.
Please list your questions in their entirety and I will answer them to the best of my ability.
I ask you to refrain from copying what I have written as readers of this forum wish to read original thought and debate. Try to write more clearly and your spelling needs attention.
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Bnerdard did you know that…..
Aoccdrnig to a rscheearch at Cmabrigde Uinervtisy, it deosn’t mttaer in waht oredr the ltteers in a wrod are, the olny iprmoetnt tihng is taht the frist and lsat ltteer be at the rghit pclae. The rset can be a toatl mses and you can sitll raed it wouthit porbelm. Tihs is bcuseae the huamn mnid deos not raed ervey lteter by istlef, but the wrod as a wlohe?
😀 🙂 😆
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“It may be more conducive and less distracting for others for you to pursue your differences with me privately by e-mail. “
You have already contacted me by PM, advising me if I was considering buying, to take car, also, to tell me what your proposed development is about.
Why on earth would I wish to contact you, I may not agree with your thoughts and comments, but so what?
As you are an ex Guards Officer, should we obey your commands?“Please list your questions in their entirety and I will answer them to the best of my ability. “
No, I thought it good to raise questions here for all to see. Why should they not be able to see the replies?“I ask you to refrain from copying what I have written as readers of this forum wish to read original thought and debate.”
What readers have objected or requested.“Try to write more clearly and your spelling needs attention.”
Sorry, when things are done in a rush, often what is typed is not as intended.
You have mentioned you do not like personal attacks and I feel that the remark regarding was uncalled for, as normally my spelling and grammar are more than acceptable to most.
You may be a former Officer, but certainly not a gentleman.
I do sincerely hope that anyone who is dyslexic will not be offended or put of from contributing, just in case our ex Guards Officer, loser of millions of pounds will criticise them is the spelling is incorrect.
My spelling needs attention, sorry BH, but as you choose to bring things down to a personal level, perhaps it is your mind that needs attention.
Could it be as a result of your complete failed business ventures, loss of capital?
Are you envious of others who are not a flop?
Time you realised that you are not in the Services now and have to earn respect, not get it purely out of rank.
Good luck with your venture, is it 9 billion €? -
@mg wrote:
Are you envious of others who are not a flop?
Time you realised that you are not in the Services now and have to earn respect, not get it purely out of rank.
Good luck with your venture, is it 9 billion €?Way out of line mg. You attack most agents here, for pleasure no doubt. The real viewers here, can see you are one of several dozen individuals who have burnt your fingers and wish to blame everyone else. How can a failed property dabbler possibly know what the property market is all about. The fact that those who have lost money in Spain duing the boom years is enough to convince the distant watcher of this forum that you have no idea what you are doing and would no doubt reccommend you try your unfortunate luck elsewhere in areas you are more qualified.
It´s good advice.
When greedy people hear the figures they want to hear, dollars signs flick in their eyes and a clever con-man will convince you to sign before it is sold to someone else. You are indicative of so many here who only hear what they want to hear. I have only have sympathy for the genuinely duped, the helpless and the trusting buyers of first homes, any investors and speculators must play hard-ball for bragging rights down the pub . When they fail miserably, they come here and expect the same sympathy as the poor people of Darfur. No chance 😈
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m.g
I do hope that those with dyslexic will not be offended.Aoccdrnig to a rscheearch at Cmabrigde Uinervtisy, it deosn’t mttaer in waht oredr the ltteers in a wrod are, the olny iprmoetnt tihng is taht the frist and lsat ltteer be at the rghit pclae. The rset can be a toatl mses and you can sitll raed it wouthit porbelm. Tihs is bcuseae the huamn mnid deos not raed ervey lteter by istlef, but the wrod as a wlohe?
Seems O.K to me so no offence taken. 😕
In house statistion 😕 😯 . Sack him or her.
Oh these that sit on fences 😈
Well observed Paddy. 🙂 Reccommend ?WhhopsFrank 8)
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Dear MG
For the sake of clarity I went to Spain in 1986 and left in 2006 with one or two million pounds less. Some of that money was lost in the previous property crash 1987 to 1997 and some of it underwriting at Lloyd’s.
I then made good money, very good money. Recently I made excellent money. But I thought hard and long to get to where I am now. I spent nearly five years thinking about this project, many sleepless nights and many trips to Portugal from Spain.
That is the nature of business learning to win and lose without regret.
You asked me what I was doing.
I responded privately, and now you wish to continue in a public forum.
I do believe that our fellow posters can be spared the agony.
Thank you for your good wishes regarding my present venture the details of which would be most inappropriate to divulge in this forum.
May I leave you with one thought. Never measure a man by how high he climbs, but by how high he bounces when he hits rock bottom. Believe me I have reached rock bottom, I have begged for money to buy food. However one thing I have never done is to get angry with myself or anyone else and I have always conducted myself as a gentleman.
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BH, I do not consider making a comment such as “Try to write more clearly and your spelling needs attention”, on a public forum gentlemanly conduct.
“You attack most agents here” – Sorry but wrong. I do not know who is and who is not an agent on here and am not really interested.
“The real viewers here, can see you are one of several dozen individuals who have burnt your fingers ” – Sorry but wrong again (getting a habit).
“How can a failed property dabbler possibly know what the property market is all about.” – Don’t know, could you tell me, it would be interesting to know?
“The fact that those who have lost money in Spain duing the boom years is enough to convince the distant watcher of this forum that you have no idea what you are doing and would no doubt reccommend you try your unfortunate luck elsewhere in areas you are more qualified.” – Sorry, wrong again, thank God, no money lost in Spain, UK, or anywhere else.
“I have only have sympathy for the genuinely duped, the helpless and the trusting buyers of first homes” _ That I can agree with.
“When they fail miserably, they come here and expect the same sympathy as the poor people of Darfur.” – So who is, if anyone, the failed investor?
BH says he suffered but recovered. So that isn’t a failure.Tut, tut, “duing” mis-spelling is likely to be criticised.
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Why would someone who is/has earnt all these millions spend time on this forum trying to create some mystery around another crappy investment 😕 Does anyone remember Victor Kayham (not sure of the spelling). Sort of similar sales technique…again I will say…GROOMING 😡
Do some of you realise that you have hijacked Marks thread ❗
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m.g
So you judge a person on if they fail in something.
My judgement and respect are for those that dont sit on fences,makes decisions that sometimes go wrong.
They then pick themselves up,dont blame anyone but themselves then have the balls to make futher decisions that prove to succeed.Unless you have the same balls then you can expect little respect when you come onto forums copy and pasting saying how stupid everyone else is but you.
Frank 8)
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@mg wrote:
Paddy, “trotsky attitude to the spanish property market,”, what is your problem.
For the record, it should be Trotsky and Spain.
Thatcherite, now that would be a compliment.OK mg, I admit being beaten by a spelling expert who takes lessons from Bernard. He will be so proud of his most eager junior pupil 😆
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“So you judge a person on if they fail in something.” – Just been looking but can’t find when I posted that?
“My judgement and respect are for those that dont sit on fences,makes decisions that sometimes go wrong.
They then pick themselves up,dont blame anyone but themselves then have the balls to make futher decisions that prove to succeed.”
Now in my eyes that is the norm, so doesn’t really justify respect. Suppose it is who and what you are used to. In business such can be everyday life.“how stupid everyone else is but you.” – No, not everyone!!!
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Paddy, don’t go there, envy can be a killer.
Me, I smile every time I see the yield my investments make. But then, they are major commercial developments and not reliant on flogging the odd 2 bed apartment to make money.
Life is so good and long may it be.
The property slump, well it is good for us investors who wait their time to move. -
@katy wrote:
Why would someone who is/has earnt all these millions spend time on this forum trying to create some mystery around another crappy investment 😕 Does anyone remember Victor Kayham (not sure of the spelling). Sort of similar sales technique…again I will say…GROOMING 😡
❗So you see no value in Bernards vastly experienced contributions katy.
No wonder some people put themselves into the wrong hands and are subsequently robbed.
I expect you would prefer to hear advice from ralita, mg, mike, goodstitch and co. People who admit they have made errors of judgement and lost money!
I completely understand the methodology, I used to deal with the victims everyday as distressed vendors.
It´s time to realise there is good advice and bad advice and an obvious way of sifting it. But for some, an estate agent cannot possibly know what he is doing and a greedy speculator who has lost his shirt is the best form of inside knowledge. Well they are if you need to know the best way to habitual failure.
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@mg wrote:
Paddy, don’t go there, envy can be a killer.
Me, I smile every time I see the yield my investments make. But then, they are major commercial developments and not reliant on flogging the odd 2 bed apartment to make money.
Life is so good and long may it be.
The property slump, well it is good for us investors who wait their time to move.Ha ha ha, in your dreams mg. With your negativity on investment and history of posting I see you in an anorak lurking around estate agents windows in the hope you might get a job putting up their sold boards. 😆
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“I expect you would prefer to hear advice from ralita, mg, mike, goodstitch and co. People who admit they have made errors of judgement and lost money! “
Paddy, perhaps you should learn that if contribute to a public forum, when making a statement, the statement should be fact, otherwise, this could cause problems for the site owner.You keep on about the likes of “habitual failure”, is this your problem?
Why would a commercial property investor use an estate agent?
Aren’t you aware that a commercial investor gets opportunities offered and does not seek? -
@mg wrote:
“
You keep on about the likes of “habitual failure”, is this your problem?
Why would a commercial property investor use an estate agent?
Aren’t you aware that a commercial investor gets opportunities offered and does not seek?Ooohh I beag yar pardon 😆 😆 😆 😆
So people beat a path to your illustrious door mg and beg for your investment 😆 😆 😆
jeeeeez!!!!! BH is right, you can´t spell, you have missed the u in the middle of your member name 😆 😆 😆
Like i said g´night 😕
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@Paddy wrote:
@katy wrote:
Why would someone who is/has earnt all these millions spend time on this forum trying to create some mystery around another crappy investment 😕 Does anyone remember Victor Kayham (not sure of the spelling). Sort of similar sales technique…again I will say…GROOMING 😡
❗So you see no value in Bernards vastly experienced contributions katy.
No wonder some people put themselves into the wrong hands and are subsequently robbed.
I expect you would prefer to hear advice from ralita, mg, mike, goodstitch and co. People who admit they have made errors of judgement and lost money!
I completely understand the methodology, I used to deal with the victims everyday as distressed vendors.
It´s time to realise there is good advice and bad advice and an obvious way of sifting it. But for some, an estate agent cannot possibly know what he is doing and a greedy speculator who has lost his shirt is the best form of inside knowledge. Well they are if you need to know the best way to habitual failure.
I am not a failed investor, I have never invested in overseas property and will not do so in the future. I am also NOT selling anything nor am I an agent. I do not follow anyones opinions on here, just read and give my own. The reason why these threads get so nasty is that most posters are agents and are trying to earn a living in a crashing market. The worse the market gets the more agents join this forum. I may not be a hot-shot investor/speculator but living on the coast for many years I can suss out con artists and liars.
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@katy wrote:
@Paddy wrote:
@katy wrote:
Why would someone who is/has earnt all these millions spend time on this forum trying to create some mystery around another crappy investment 😕 Does anyone remember Victor Kayham (not sure of the spelling). Sort of similar sales technique…again I will say…GROOMING 😡
❗. I may not be a hot-shot investor/speculator but living on the coast for many years I can suss out con artists and liars.
Must be something to do with the salty air then. Pity about those that live inland, they may not see a crooked deal coming.
So you think Estate Agents or ex Estate Agents have no right coming here to redress the woefully impartial imbalance.
They have time on their hands like you, so why should they not.
The vast majority of Bitish property owners in Spain are happy with their decision. You will not see them here. What you will see is a few dozen who made a wrong decision telling their story a thousand times. they are distorting the facts.
It´s time for a redress of statistics on this forum to reflect the real picture.
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@katy wrote:
Thus speaks another agent, they are really getting rattled aren’t they 🙄
No sensible reply then as to why Estate Agents cannot enter the debate. Well of course not.
Why do you hate Spanish Estate Agents so much ❓
Why are you so glib ❓
What is your sorry story ❓
I am really interested to know the reason for your intense and consistent attrition. It culd help me understand your problem a little more. Do tell.
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@katy wrote:
Going into counselling now? I don’t have a “sorry” story but I do know many who do, one a relative.
Yes it´s always a friend or relative. A bit of a councillors joke to be honest.
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[quote=”PaddyThe vast majority of Bitish property owners in Spain are happy with their decision. You will not see them here. What you will see is a few dozen who made a wrong decision telling their story a thousand times. they are distorting the facts.
It´s time for a redress of statistics on this forum to reflect the real picture.[/quote]
Oh yeah? Happy?
Is this why the sale lists are filled with properties advertised for less that the money they were paid for?
You belong to the past buddy. A past where crooked estate agents like you made a living by skining inocent buyers.
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Contributing to an open forum invloves giving to receive. If you wish to be taken seriously the quality of your contribution must be relevant and near perfect.
Poor spelling is an insult to others. There is no need for it. Write your piece and use the spell check and then paste this onto the response box.
Never be in a rush, think carefully and contribute freely, trying to keep to the point.
Why do I or did I contribute? Having kept silent since December 2005, I felt it timely for me to do so.
I have given you the benefit of my experience, and my thoughts. Feel free to interpret these as you wish and my motives as well. Do as you please as I am a man at rest freely contributing to a forum as I see fit.
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I’ll give you credit BH -at least you conduct yourself in a civil tone. We’re all adults here so we can make up our own opinions as to your character and motives. It’s just a shame that your fellow EAs have come out handbags blazing and have turned these threads into slanging matches. Sad or amusing depending on your viewpoint, but definitely revealing.
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Dear Forestfire
Thank you. It is a fact that some of us possess an inbred superiority which gives us a dominating influence over our contemporaries, and marks us out umistakably. This is as certain as it is mysterious. It is aparent in every association of human beings in every variety of circumstances and on every plane of culture. There are those who, with an assured and unquestioned title, take the leading place, and shape the general conduct.
Most regular contributors to this forum will be in this category, most Estate Agents, Property Developers and Entrepreneurs as well. We all have our own views some strongly held. This is praiseworthy and I have never asked any person to agree with what I have written nor do I have anything to hide. I believe that I have answered every question fully and responsibly. My response has been qualified through years of experience and research, a continuing process.
Over the next few months details of the development project with which I am involved in Portugal and in Argentina will be revealed. It is so far removed from anything to do with this forum. However I have been trained in marketing and in sales as many others have been as well. If individuals choose to interpret my contributions in this light then who am I to question them. I have no difficulty with what people think of me.
When you read certain websites, like the one which Suzanne leads you to, you understand that there are many unfortunate people who have been badly damaged by criminals. We can make this world a better place by doing something to alert those thinking of buying property in Spain to really think it through, to go on Google Earth, to explore on their own computors the surface of the country, to plan and to make journeys to verify the information seen and gathered, to stand up on their own two feet and to defend their own best interests by really investigating what Spain has to offer.
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I agree with forestfire. I’ve been reading the forum and lately it has just become a forum for estate agents in many guises. They are not contributing anything, just slagging off posters who are genuine.
What is mg’s objective to posting here? (genuine question). What is his background? (another genuine question) All I see is a slanging match where he is trying to score points off of Bernard,( who personally I find to be inoffensive and honest. His posts are consistent) It is soooooooo boring and I am very surprised that Mark has allowed it to continue as it adds no value to the forum.
Katy is a valued member of SPI and has given help & information to many of us that has needed it in the past. She is trustworthy and is not here for personal grievance or gain. Many people that post here have been misinformed by REA’s and having been one of those people I wouldn’t trust another one..EVER, either in Spain or the UK or anywhere else. I have to deal with them if I want to buy or sell, but it would be with the experience of hindsight . -
Claire is right that bickering is boring and adds no value to the debate.
I’m resigned to the fact that a certain amount of bickering is inevitable, but it is starting to take over this thread.
This thread is not about who knows more or who does what. It is a debate about the state of the Spanish property market.
Before you post, ask yourself the following question: Will my post make a relevant point about the state of the Spanish property market? If the answer is yes, fire away. If the answer is no, please don’t post. Let’s keep this thread focused on the topic.
Talking of which, I can report that Spain’s property market crisis is getting worse. It’s interesting to watch what goes on in California and Florida, where there are many similarities to the property market on Spain’s coast. I get the impression that prices in C&F are falling fast, whilst foreclosures are rising fast. I can’t think of a good reason why the same won’t happen in Spain. Can anyone?
Mark
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Thank you Mark
Last year, more people than ever boarded planes for business or pleasure, and global air travel is flourishing. So on the face of it the outlook for tourism, business, sporting, cultural, and leisure seems extremely positive. But if you look a little deeper, you will see in the USA, the world’s largest tourism market, and in many Western European countries, there are signs that consumer confidence has started to be affected by the credit squeeze, largely off the back of the sub-prime mortgage crisis. Historically when consumer confidence falters, so does spending on leisure and travel and on second or holiday homes.
Whether it is in Florida or California or on the coasts of Spain and Portugal, these indicators are a warning sign of what is to come.
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Hello I´m following this thread for a while and it´s very interesting.
As most of you state that prices are going down I would like to get some advise.
I´m interested in a villa – Costa Blanca North.
The property is offered on different web-sites and the asking price is on
one website 350 k on the other 375 k.What do you think should i offer to the vendor at those days ?
Regards Sunwind
P.S. Sorry for my bad english – but I´m german
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sunwind wrote:I´m interested in a villa – Costa Blanca North.
The property is offered on different web-sites and the asking price is on
one website 350 k on the other 375 k.What do you think should i offer to the vendor at those days ?
Is this the only villa on the region you are interested? If no, is it the lower priced villa in the region?
Do you know the area? Is it really the most suitable place for you? Do you want to purchase it as investment or as a holiday home?
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The difference in Spain to other countries affected by the credit crunch is that Spain has been heading for a crash for some years. Many of the unsold new apartments were on offer 3 or more years ago so that shows even then they were having problems. The latest economic problems have just put in the final nail.
I think there will still be a limited market here for good properties in good areas. (although good areas a rapidly diminishing). I have seen the same in Florida, good urbanisations in nice areas have just sniffled whilst areas (mainly built over the last 3 years) in Orlando have crashed.
As for foreclosures, we all know the lengthy legal process here. I said before on a thread when we bought a bank foreclosure it had taken the bank 6 years to put it on the market.
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…….katy, claire, mark, bernard, charlie, suzzane, Inez, Sarah, Drakan and others I’ve not mentioned, who are helping those who been lied to, cheated, conned. Just want to say thanks for your ongoing and worthwhile contributions. Please don’t let those on this thread criticising you, who champion the liars and cheats (for obvious reasons) get to you in any way. Those of us on the side of decent people can see straight through them.
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@ralita wrote:
@sunwind wrote:
I´m interested in a villa – Costa Blanca North.
The property is offered on different web-sites and the asking price is on
one website 350 k on the other 375 k.What do you think should i offer to the vendor at those days ?
Is this the only villa on the region you are interested? If no, is it the lower priced villa in the region?
Do you know the area? Is it really the most suitable place for you? Do you want to purchase it as investment or as a holiday home?
I visited the region in january and plan to go there in march again.
I´m going to rent a villa close to the location of the property I´m interested in(2 weeks stay).
The property is a resale about 10 years old, 3 berth, with private pool.
There seems to be several villas on sale(resales) its planned as a holiday home. I visited about 10 villas within this region – but this one seems to be perfect.
But what is a fair price/offer? how to determine if even the agents are asking different prices on the same property ?
What about the current price discussion – what would you advice to offer?Regards Sunwind
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See if you can talk to someone in the area, find out how long it has been on sale, why are they selling? If it is on the web at different prices it could mean the property has been on sale for a while. I am sure if you made an offer they would get back to you with a price they would be prepared to accept.
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sunwind wrote:I visited the region in january and plan to go there in march again.
I´m going to rent a villa close to the location of the property I´m interested in(2 weeks stay).
The property is a resale about 10 years old, 3 berth, with private pool.
There seems to be several villas on sale(resales) its planned as a holiday home. I visited about 10 villas within this region – but this one seems to be perfect.
But what is a fair price/offer? how to determine if even the agents are asking different prices on the same property ?
What about the current price discussion – what would you advice to offer?The lore is that if you are not ashamed of the offer you make, it means you offered too much. In USA the agents are obliged to transmit any offer to the seller.
How long has the villa been on the market? Were there any price reductions?
Are the owners in any hurry to sell.What about the other villas for sale? Is any of the other owner in a hurry? maybe you won’t buy the perfect villa but you could save 100K Euros or more by being more
flexible.I do not know how much to offer, there are people much better informed than me on this Forum.
One last question: do you really need to buy in 2008? 2009 or 2010 would be too late?
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Sunwind, as a rule of thumb, if you can move fast then offer around 65% of a current bank valuation – you can always increase your offer but if its dangled with the right carrot ie fast sale, then that may swing it for you
In order to caluculate the bank valuation you need to know what the squaremetre price is in the area. Ask in a local bank – they should be able to tell you.
Gotta rush out now but thank you Goodstitch for your comment earlier 😳
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Mark wrote “It’s interesting to watch what goes on in California and Florida, where there are many similarities to the property market on Spain’s coast. I get the impression that prices in C&F are falling fast, whilst foreclosures are rising fast. I can’t think of a good reason why the same won’t happen in Spain. Can anyone? “
Well, Goldman Sachs (and others) estimate that with the drop in prices this year (USA) between 10 and 15 million owners will have negative equity with average loan representing 110% of property value. They also expect prices to fall further next year; and no, these price falls not just for California and Florida, but Nationwide.
A huge number of Spaniards bought overvalued properties in the last five years with 95 – 120% mortgages as well as taking on car loans, plasma tv loans etc. Together with neglible salary increases, la subida de la cesta, rising unemployment etc there seems little doubt that the national market is probably in for a worse ride.( more restrictive economic policies and tied to Trichet interest rate intransigence) As for the coasts of Spain, well it’s pretty evident to anyone but the ostriches that we’ll need canoes to traverse the streets to avoid the blood and tears (best areas will just need double doses of Prozac)!!
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I have a comment about the US, which I’d like people’s thoughts on. As it’s often used as a comparison.
When I hear about holiday homes in Florida, I always ask myself why would someone from Europe buy one. Surely the market is mainly driven by American buyers. I don’t know whether this is correct though. The main problems I see are as follows, and in the order of significance.
1) You are buying in a country that you have no right to live in
2) You have no automatic right to enter the country.
3) The distance is considerable and is costly in terms of time and money
4) You have no right (and cannot) work in the country
5) You are subject to the whim of US immigration and could one day face visa requirements
6) The area is subject to devastating hurricanesplus many other downsides to US and US culture.
The above would certainly stop me owning property in the US, unless I was extremely wealthy.
So I am not sure comparison of holiday homes can be exactly equal. Spain’s holiday home market is going to be influenced much more by its European neighbours than in comparison to the US.
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Dear JP1
Traditionally Southern Europe has provided the sunshine playground for Northern Europe, and the potential markets for holiday homes in Spain are likely to remain as they are. In some years certain countries will supply more buyers than others and then the trends even themselves out. Germans appeared to have evaporated but as this forum has recently shown they are still around. This is good news.
Of significance are the large numbers of Spanish buyers who have purchased second and holiday homes in their own country since 2003.
Two of the contributing factors to the last property recession in tourist areas in Spain last time included:
The introduction of IVA in property purchase which led to an unusually high demand in 1986, ahead of this being introduced. After which demand came to a shuddering halt, particularly in the purchase of development land where the higher rate of IVA applied.
The removal of mortgage interest rate relief on second homes for those who were tax resident in Spain.
Accordingly there were far fewer Spaniards affected by the last crash as they mostly stopped buying by 1987, and it was the foreigners who continued and who bore the brunt of the losses.
The significance of what is happening in California and Florida is that these are areas where there are many second and holiday homes in the USA and the market is suffering. The assumption being made and indeed one which I ascribe to is that this is an indication of what is to come in Europe. Accordingly tourist areas are more vulnerable than established areas where there is a predominance of primary homes.
Why people choose the USA puzzles me and I support your arguments. Nevertheless they do and they will continue to do so. From March 2008 European and American airlines will be able to fly to any destination in Europe and the US, ending years of restrictions. Importantly European airlines will be able to fly to the US from any EU airport, not just their home country. Most people agree that this will lead to more flights to and from the US and Europe and lower fares. More frequent and cheaper communications and the US will remain attractive for some Europeans.
Picking up the thread from UBEDA and turning back to Spain once more, you will begin to have an understanding of the level of household debt now prevalent throughout Spain. Add to this the amount of corporate debt and the lack of liquidity in the banking system, it can only be reasonable to assume that Spain is heading for the rocks at full throttle.
Shortly we will have the benefit of Mark’s monthly update, the General Elections, and the much hoped for transparency in the true state of affairs.
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Thanks Drakan 😳 igualmente 🙂
Jp1, I think you points about the USA are valid. The hurricane situation does not worry me too much or the long flights. Visa situation is another matter as so many from the UK have tried different methods of staying and they have wised up after 9/11. We have B2 visas and every time we enter we are questioned as to why we have them!
We have a house there and taxes have risen dramatically over the last few years. Because of this we now have it on long term let. (returns are good) $8000 council tax can be the norm in good areas for a 4 bed pool house, locals aren’t worried because they have homestead allowance. You do get a fantastic house for the price of a townhouse there and were it not for some of the points you mention I would be there permanently 🙂
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Hi Sunwind
Know the CBN pretty well from gandia down to Calpe and the vallies. Used to run an estate agent until I returned to the UK in January. Let me know the websites and references and I will let you know what I think, it may be that I even recognise it if its been on the market for a long time!
Jim
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@jiminspain wrote:
Hi Sunwind
Know the CBN pretty well from gandia down to Calpe and the vallies. Used to run an estate agent until I returned to the UK in January. Let me know the websites and references and I will let you know what I think, it may be that I even recognise it if its been on the market for a long time!
Jim
Hi Jim,
here is a link to the property:
http://www.kyero.com/property/600026-villa-for-sale-pegoLooking forward to hear from you
Regards Sunwind
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Hi Katy thanks for the good wishes, settling in ok but its still early days.
Sunwind monte pego is one of those places you either love or hate, a large hillside/mountainside urb. with one road in and one road out. 5 min to the medium sized and still fairly spanish town of pego and approx 10 mins from the beach of oliva. Be careful with the position as the urb. is predominantly north facing meaning in the winter months you could have very limited sun. Granted the villa looks in good condition and well maintained but monte pego is pretty difficult to resell in good market conditions let alone whilst market as it is. Large % of german owners many who bought cash from under the matress before the intro of the euro in germany.
I know its only opinion but it would not be for me, we have one house on monte pego 4 beds pool 2200m2 plot, 210m2 built and at 370k not a sniff, the villa is on with 5+ other agent.
As I say only opinion I am sure many of the other “hundreds”!!! of owners on monte pego would say differently.
Jim
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Dear Sunwind
Possibly the best property developer I ever worked for in Spain was Siegfried Borho, Chairman Construcciones Hispano Germanas, who possibly designed or built this property. He started developing in Denia and then developed Oliva Nova Beach & Golf Resort. He had a number of other properties, including some in Pego.
His attention to detail and care for his clients was exemplary. A true German with very high personal standards. Not one serious complaint in all his time developing property in Spain.
I am sure that if you Google CHG in Denia you will be able to reach him. I have lost touch with him since leaving Spain.
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His attention to detail and care for his clients was exemplary. A true German with very high personal standards. Not one serious complaint in all his time developing property in Spain.
I am sure that if you Google CHG in Denia you will be able to reach him. I have lost touch with him since leaving Spain.
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I always thought that although the CHG properties looked very nice the standard was pretty poor and the properties very expensive for what they were. But that is my opinion plenty will disagree I am sure.With regard to the property in Monte Pego, thought it an awful development, the constructor acted like the commandant of a nazi concentration camp, people were not allowed to do any works on their own the in house builder had to be used. This may have changed now but certainly was the case, I think putting up satellite dishes was a big problem and telephone lines were not allowed above ground . Looking at the house there are lots of stairs a usual problem with Monte Pego, when one is reasonably young and active this is not a problem but as the years go on and mobility decreases carrying gas bottles, heavy shopping can be a real pain. The development is miles from a decent shopping centre and hospitals. Many people have moved to this type of property and it has been ok for a few years then the male cannot drive any longer through ill health and the female can´t or does n´t want to drive, they have to rely on friends which they, the friends, put up with for a while. The worst scenario is when the male dies and the female has to face the problems on her own, lugging gas bottles, shopping etc.
Property has been a wonderful investment over many years, but as we are seeing now selling can be a problem. With so much property around for sale I would have thought Monte Pego would be pretty low on a buyers list.
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Dear 135 yearswaiting
From what you have described it must the the same developer as I once worked for. I handed in my notice on the 60th anniversary of D Day which he did not find amusing. He had very high personal standards and imposed his will on others with energy.
However he was the best developer I ever worked for in Spain with regard to quality of construction and materials used although I respect what you have written regarding the development.
Your comments concerning access and mobility are absolutely true, which was why he chose to develop Oliva Nova Beach & Golf Resort, largely flat and more convenient for older people.
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Thanks for your reply´s and your interesting opinions.
There are strange things going on with the property at montepego, the asking price was just raised by more then 15K on the website of the agent
who accompanied me during my inspection trip in january.So prices are going up ???? Isn´t that strange ???
I really will have a sharp look at the offered properties on montepego – I found about 40 detached properties from montepego on different web-sites.
I will be there next week – for a two week vacation/inspection, maybe we should consider your comments regarding the “quiet” location of montepego and have a look arround.
As we look for a holiday home the only must is sea-view, not to old and min 2 berth.
There should be a lot of properties matching our needs – any ideas from your side where to find a nice location /surroundings we should have a look at?Regards
Sunwind -
Dear Sunwind
The comments made by 135 yearswaiting are true and I recognised the property from the link. Siegfried Borho started developing properties with a sea view and as the years went past and his clients grew older, access became a major hazard. He then abandonned the idea of developing on steep hills and developed Oliva Nova Beach & Golf Resort.
I should imagine that there is a glut of property on the market as when I was there in 2004 the market had already slowed considerably. Perhaps your interest alone caused the asking price to be adjusted upwards. A knee jerk reaction by an ever hopeful vendor and or agent in a buyers market.
I am pleased that you intend to go to the area and discover what it has to offer. If you can rent and avoid making a purchase just now my gut feeling is that some spectacular opportunities will present themselves over the next year or so. Once you know the area you can make a more informed decision.
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sunwind wrote:asking price was just raised by more then 15K on the website of the agent
who accompanied me during my inspection trip in january.So prices are going up ???? Isn´t that strange ???
No price is going up in Spain or wherever.
Read the thread “Can’t afford to carry on with mortgage payments”. That is the situation in 2008, not what some crooked website of some agent claims.
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Ralita,
The house I bought in Wimbledon in 1988 was worth 25% less by 1992 & I was in negative equity. At the same time our family income was cut due to my wife having a baby & stopping work. It was a very difficult time. By 1994 my house was worth 35% more than I had paid & it subsequently proved to be the best investment I’ve made. Even during that recession some properties went up, some stayed the same & some dropped.
No one knows what is going to happen in Spain or elsewhere but not EVERY property is going to drop, people will look for quality.
A colleague bought in the early 90’s near Torreveija, paid £12,000 for a 2 bed villa, he is very unhappy now as he thought his place was worth around £150,000 & he has been told now it is only £120,000. He is moaning that he has lost £30,000, I tell him that he has made over £100,000 but he can’t see it.
Not every-body is a loser, even now.
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rob6578 wrote:A colleague bought in the early 90’s near Torreveija, paid £12,000 for a 2 bed villa, he is very unhappy now as he thought his place was worth around £150,000 & he has been told now it is only £120,000. He is moaning that he has lost £30,000, I tell him that he has made over £100,000 but he can’t see it.
Not every-body is a loser, even now.
It might be that if somebody buys in Spain in 2010-2011, that person can have a good equity in 2020. Whereas if somebody buys in 2008, the price in 2020 might be the same.
Same applies to UK where houses are now on top of the money.
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Rob6578 and Ralita make valid comments. However given the state of the Spanish property market today I would lean towards what Ralita has written. Now is not the moment to be investing in a market that might crash completely. Renting will give you utility value whilst at the same time allowing you to investigate the market and decide when, where and what you really wish to buy.
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Over the last couple of days I have heard from two different sources in my industry, though they are more on the multiple purchase side of things, that many investors are pulling out of Dubai. Apparently it is no longer viable due to many reasons.
Interest has now turned to Spain again. My sources have already made several presentations to ex-Dubai fund managers, they too have suggested the falling Spanish market is attracting attention.
I know these people have to put their multiple millions somewhere, and one would assume they usually buy in failing markets for the longer term investment.
I asked my contacts what kind of things they are looking for and the answer was, unfinished or whole blocks of coastal apartments at 60% or less of bank valuation. Also new commercial buildings and parking in cities.
Interesting, and I am in the process of contacting a few others on that side of things to see if it is a trend acrosss the investor side or just coincindence.
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Wasn’t it these multi-purchase investors who caused a lot of Spain’s problems in the first place, giving a false sense of demand, especially re. off-plans?
Many off-plan developments are where they are today (half empty or worse) because of the false bubble this type of investor created. People not interested in Spain as a country, just as a place to plonk their money until a better opportunity comes along.
“Pulling out of Dubai”….oh well, good while it lasted I suppose. How many people will be left to rattle around in those huge skyscrapers?
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@charlie wrote:
Wasn’t it these multi-purchase investors who caused a lot of Spain’s problems in the first place, giving a false sense of demand, especially re. off-plans?
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Without a doubt charlie. I suspect it would be a clever move to convince builders to oversupply and then scoop up the overhang a year or so later when they are about to default on mortgages.
It´s a bit like the hosiery business. Large department stores approach a factory owner and convince them to supply them with huge amounts of socks. The factory owner invests up to the hilt on new machinery. Then, the buyer returns and tells the factory owner that instead of them paying 30 pence a pair, he will have to make them for 15 pence a pair. The factory owner is backed into a corner.
I know people who have experienced this in Leicester, and other, wiser ones who told the big buyers where to get off!!
I wonder if the developers would refuse the investor business should they return to Spain? I suppose that is a silly question.
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I am also aware of ‘opportunity’ funds in London sniffing around for big Spanish developments in distress. These funds aren’t looking for the odd bargain property. They’re after entire new developments that have run into liquidity problems and can be bought for 30%+ discount. Budgets of €40 million plus.
Every day I hear more and more bad news about the market. It’s just the beginning, and I don’t agree with those who say it will only take a couple of months for the market to stabilise. I know I’m repeating myself, but I think lots of developers are going to hit the wall, and unemployment will surge, as will repossessions, and a general wailing and gnashing of teeth. Gonna be interesting.
If you think Spain is a risky investment, wait and see what happens to the so-called emerging property investment markets like Bulgaria, Morocco, Cape Verde, et all (and Dubai too). When the dust settles after the credit-drunk madness of the last decade it may at last dawn on the public consciousness that, for most ordinary punters, making money from overseas property investing is one big hoax. Your typical overseas property investor knows next to nothing about the countries they invest in, bar what they are told by sales organisation, and even less about the true economics of property investment (real costs, risks, market liquidity, etc.).
Mark
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That´s true Mark.
It´s important to make a distinction between a small amature property investor/speculator and the lage multi-million pound investment fund investor.
The smaller investor is usually in it for a quick profit as they cannot stand to be without their stake money for too long. They also have very little credibilty or bargaining power with the builders and banks when purchasing – one, or just a few properties. They are also very nieve and easily talked into over-commiting themselves.
When a large fund manager comes along, they dictate the terms at the bank and with the builder. They will walk away if the deal costs a penny more than their return survey spreadsheets indicate. These “big boys” will not recognise an artists impression or a nicely coloured floor plan. What they do recognise is the economics of a deal. I´ve seen these incredibly complexed spreadsheets with terminology that means very little to me. But, when the figures go in one end and the sums show up with the right numbers at the other, they get very enthusiastic indeed. Should the figures not look right, they are as cold as ice!
Make no mistake, there is a world of difference between the small speculator and a professional investor. The most obviouse difference I suppose is that only one of them is wearing a shirt at present.
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For bigtime investors to do a deal at 30% they would be better to develop their own. I have been told that developers here work on over 50% profit!
Also if they hang on to them (and they will have to). There are running costs, rates and taxes that cannot be avoided.
I read an article last week from a United Nations report re. Spain and corruption, money laundering and drug trafficking. I can’t remember where I read it but will put it on if I see it.
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@Peter Good wrote:
That´s true Mark.
It´s important to make a distinction between a small amature property investor/speculator and the lage multi-million pound investment fund investor.
The smaller investor is usually in it for a quick profit as they cannot stand to be without their stake money for too long. They also have very little credibilty or bargaining power with the builders and banks when purchasing – one, or just a few properties. They are also very nieve and easily talked into over-commiting themselves.
When a large fund manager comes along, they dictate the terms at the bank and with the builder. They will walk away if the deal costs a penny more than their return survey spreadsheets indicate. These “big boys” will not recognise an artists impression or a nicely coloured floor plan. What they do recognise is the economics of a deal. I´ve seen these incredibly complexed spreadsheets with terminology that means very little to me. But, when the figures go in one end and the sums show up with the right numbers at the other, they get very enthusiastic indeed. Should the figures not look right, they are as cold as ice!
Make no mistake, there is a world of difference between the small speculator and a professional investor. The most obviouse difference I suppose is that only one of them is wearing a shirt at present.
true to a very large extent, but the “amateur” should be doing all these things too perhaps on a more simplistic basis but nevertheless do their homework more and walk away f necessary but they get caught up in it all and think its easy, which it isn’t necessarily
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Katy
Your 100 % correct but there are many that were trying to top up pensions due to this goverments demolition and raids on the those that invested for the future.
Not right but many could see no future as their pensions either vanished or reduced to a level by Mr Browns antics.
Equity markets performance poor and at that time interest rates poor they were looking for the best place they thought for their money and boy were the evil sector in Spain waiting with open arms.
The 30 % deposit did it and many just felt they could sell anytime as the investment rose.Frank 8)
Frank 8)
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Think it was this one (it’s the Dubai government, not a consortium):
The government of Dubai has made an offer to buy Inmobiliaria Colonial, a Spanish developer which has lost half its market value in six months, for about 3 billion euros ($4.5bn) in cash and bonds, reported Bloomberg. Investment Corp. of Dubai, which has about $82bn of assets, bid 1.85 euros for each Colonial share, which is 8.8% more than Wednesday’s closing share price.
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@charlie wrote:
Think it was this one (it’s the Dubai government, not a consortium):
The government of Dubai has made an offer to buy Inmobiliaria Colonial, a Spanish developer which has lost half its market value in six months, for about 3 billion euros ($4.5bn) in cash and bonds, reported Bloomberg. Investment Corp. of Dubai, which has about $82bn of assets, bid 1.85 euros for each Colonial share, which is 8.8% more than Wednesday’s closing share price.
I think these are the so-called Middle East “Sovereign Funds” that are so feared by the rest of the world. There are huge oil-profits surpluses building in places like Saudi Arabia, they are burning holes in their pockets and western governments are worried that in the not-to-distant-future, the Middle East will buy-out all the stocks of flagship European and US companies, leaving the stock markets controlled by the wrong families.
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US STATE DEPT REPORT TAKES SPAIN TO TASK (Town Crier)
A new report by the USA Dept of State claims that black money from drug trafficking in Spain has been feeding the real estate boom along the country’s mediterranean coasts. The 2008 international Narcotics Control strategy report dedicates a whole chapter to spain in which it claims that many local town halls preferred to ignore the origin of the money. It also says that given the huge profits obtained in the construction sector in recent years, many, coastal municipialities turned a blind eye to the illegality of construction projects in their towns. The report says that in málaga province alone, more than 200 cases of corruption linked to construction have been invesigated. The report calculates that 30% of the 500E notes in circulation are found in spain linked directly to the purchase ofproperty for money laundering purposes. It describes spain as the “grand European centre for money laundering” as well as the main door for the entry of illegal narcotics
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Hi
Talking about investors.
Did anyone with property on La Reserva de Marbella receive a p/m from someone who says they had a meeting with the daughter of the families development and was looking to buy 200 units.
The weird thing is they were asking for advice. 😕
Now forgive my cynical attitude but something didnt add up. 😕Frank 8)
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Yep
Sure yer right however my bank account details would be useless as its empty.
Had one a few weeks back when I was selling a forklift for 2 K and he sent a cheque for 4K to cover transport cost you understand. 😉
I had to send a bank transfer for any over payment he made by return after deducting what amounted to about £200 for delivery.
I send a bank transfer to him for the £1,800 and I have his cheque 😕
Yeh right 😕Frank 8)
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Another bit from the Town Crier:
Malaya main hearing next year
The main hearing of the malaya corruption case is scheduled to open in the spring of next year and the new “Ciudad de justicia” in málaga capital. the closing of the instruction stage of the case will take up the rest of this year. Some 600 witnesses will be called during the duration of the main hearing, which is expected to last for more than a year. The 86 accused will have 100 Lawyers representing them. Some Magistrates have said the case should be heard in Málaga’s conference hall given the size of the proceedings but the junta has said that the new Justice city currently has 800m2 not in use on which a new large court could be built in time.Wonder who will get the contract to build the new court 🙂
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Peter, I agree with what you are saying re the large funds – they are looking in Spain – although some of them do not what to know at all!!
However, having just spent 2 months with one with a coastal block of 164 units at 59% of bank val – they were still turned down as the figures did not match up.
Reason being is they still need to do something with them, they have to present some kind of yield and even if they look to capital growth only, at the moment its too dodgy.
They will go for them around 45-50% of bank val and its far more likely to happen direct from the banks.
Mark – totally agree with you re timescale. This has a lot longer to run and to keep you all to speed, this week I had several calls from people who cannot any longer afford their mortgages. I worked out a price for them to shift fast and its way under the mortgage outstanding. No normal buyers, mainly due to the exchange rates so its pretty grim news.
Im considering suspending the auctions for now as most units do not stack up for the investor buyers I have and Im working on getting them driect from banks – but I reckon it will take me 18 months or so to bash the sense into them of auctioning without reserves!! (like UK did early 90’s)
Hey ho!
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Inez wrote:P
Im considering suspending the auctions for now as most units do not stack up for the investor buyers I have and Im working on getting them driect from banks – but I reckon it will take me 18 months or so to bash the sense into them of auctioning without reserves!! (like UK did early 90’s)Hey ho!
Is there any Spanish site like foreclosure.com?
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A recent study by IESE business school on data from the property portal fotocasa.es reveals that resale property prices fell more than 8% in the Valencian Region over 12 months to February. The president of the Alicante API estate agents organisation says he thinks they may have even fallen further. On the other hand, I also read today in the press that sales picked up a bit last month, as banks started lending a bit more. If true, I worry that might be a temporary reprieve; the credit crunch isn’t over yet, and it might even get worse.
Mark
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Bernard Hornung wrote:Just two months ago when I first suggested that in some of the worst affected areas prices could fall by as much as 70%, I was described as verging on hysteria.
I am confident that before too long Inez will verify my recent forecast.
70% is a very optimistic forecast for worst affected areas prices.
Some undesirable/overbuilt areas will have unsealable apartments (or apartments which will sell for pennys on the pound).
Mark, there always are knife catchers who then live to regret their naive decission.
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@ralita wrote:
70% is a very optimistic forecast for worst affected areas prices.
Some undesirable/overbuilt areas will have unsealable apartments (or apartments which will sell for pennys on the pound).
Well, when the economy goes into recession they will make great shanty towns for the unemployed and homeless.
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mike wrote:ralita wrote:70% is a very optimistic forecast for worst affected areas prices.
Some undesirable/overbuilt areas will have unsealable apartments (or apartments which will sell for pennys on the pound).
Well, when the economy goes into recession they will make great shanty towns for the unemployed and homeless.
Yes, of course. Add to this pot growers and met labs.
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There have been considerable rises over the last year in the UK on the cost of petrol and other fuel, (18%) gas & electricity (13%) food (11%) and mortgages by an average of 9% +council tax increases. Add that to the weak pound, I would be surprised if the average Brit will be in the market to buy holiday homes, however much the prices fall. Corporate investors will always be around especially so in a falling market such as Spain.
According to a report I read yesterday,in the UK the amount owed on personal loans is up to £9.8 billion this year compared to £2.6billion in 2007.
Quite alarming! 😯 -
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Mike
i think you are close to the truth. The biggest council/low cost housing estate in the world perhaps?. Available for residents to buy at dirt cheap prices, as soon as they can muster together a few thousand euro’s, ……..and all subsidised by the dodgy agents/lawyers/developers/local councils, ill gotten gains?
Well as soon as all the original buyers they have screwed have been compensated of course!.
yeah, i know……dream on!!
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Claire wrote:the average Brit will be in the market to buy holiday homes, however much the prices fall.
There are many people who did not buy in Spain (or wherever) during the latest stages of the boom. They are individuals, not corporation.
Some of them are good savers and will at some moment have enough money to maybe pick a good property at some good prices. They will thoroughly make their homework and have patience till the bottom is reached (or close to it).
There are always winners and losers in every aspect of life…
“iThe biggest council/low cost housing estate in the world perhaps?. Available for residents to buy at dirt cheap prices, as soon as they can muster together a few thousand euro’s, ……..and all subsidised by the dodgy agents/lawyers/developers/local councils, ill gotten gains?”
Well, in Florida/California the low cost housing estate is growing by the minute.
Spain will only follow, won’t be even be original. :))) -
ralita, you have misquoted me. Use the full sentence please.
I said:I would be surprised if the average Brit will be in the market to buy holiday homes, however much the prices fall.
Quote ralita:
Some of them are good savers and will at some moment have enough money to maybe pick a good property at some good prices.
You need a good income to support family life AND save these days.
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Spanish Property Black Spots, Developers going bust, Irish Banking Crisis, Spain slips down the list for Investors……etc. etc.
Having just read through some of these threads of the last few days, I don’t think the ‘doom and gloom’ merchants on this forum will ever come under criticism again – and goodness have we taken some flak in the past. 🙁
For all those still with their heads in the sand, bet it’s cosy down there!
No ‘balance’ to add??P.S. Anyone noticed the agents have suddenly gone quiet. 😯
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charlie wrote:P.S. Anyone noticed the agents have suddenly gone quiet. 😯
The buyers (or market observers) are already convinced about the ongoing and up-coming price crash.
The agents should concentrate on convincing the sellers. At the end of the day,
the real estate agents still make a living whatever house prices are… -
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There has been a busy spell in the past week.
Most agents in my immediate area have had a few clients with buying intentions. Nothing to really shout about but, at least worth remaining open for.
The hit rate on my website has gone up, but then it should at this time of year as the buying season approaches.
Most enquires have been for the higher value properties €300,000 to €1,4000,000.
I have also had several vendors inform me of a private sale, suggesting there are people driving about independantly.
I have also been talking to vendors about completeing in sterling bankers drafts at a conversion rate of €1.42 to help UK buyers over the exchange rate. Most are happy to do so if it helps a sale along.
For now at least, there is still a basic market with low but accepteable offers being considered.
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Hi Ralita, no at the moment there isnt a website offering bank stock. Banks write off the debt then pass the property to one of their subsidiary companies to flog, ie Caixa bank and Serihabitat. I do get lists of repo stuff, but in many cases the prices are higher than similar properties I am selling privately!!! So I dont bother.
Until banks realize they will have to wip the slate clean, there will be not a lot happening. AT the higher end of the market inflationproof buyers will be around and some are staring to trickle in
Any properties that totally stack up sell like hot cakes, there are still people prepared to take a punt if they havent used any of their own money
Other than that its quiet. A few Spanish are out and about but many are getting knocked back by the banks so even if they want to buy, they cant.
Few phone calls – mainly press wanting to know whats happening.
I havent been on the forum much as Im looking at other areas and angles as still have to feed the kids!!!
At least the sun is out – got the hood down on the car and its beautiful!
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Peter Good wrote:I have also been talking to vendors about completeing in sterling bankers drafts at a conversion rate of €1.42 to help UK buyers over the exchange rate. Most are happy to do so if it helps a sale along.
Sorry, I do not understand this.
Let’s say that an apartment costs 100K Euros. Are you saying that the vendors are willing to sell to British people for 70K Pounds (at a rate of 1.42) instead of the normal
77K Pounds (at the official 1.3 rate)?The 70K Pounds are 91K Euros at the official 1.3 rate.
Why don’t the vendors just decrease the price by 10%? I do not quite see how they
could sell for one price to say German buyers and for a 10% reduced price to British.The mathematical artifacts are just a not-so-subtle way to avoid the inevitable which
is the lowering of prices. -
Dear Charlie
Some of us have gone quiet because we are down with ‘flu!
Nevertheless there appears to be an increased level of interest in the market. The difficulty is determing who is looking to buy, who is desperate to sell and working out how this might be achieved by comparing other asking prices and trawling the agents for information to then use privately, and as aways the endless analysts, market professionals and journalists trying to make sense of it all.
The true measure is completed sales with the actual prices fully disclosed.
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I agree there is lots to be gloomy about but I do feel there is a bit of scaremongering around, especially for the UK.
It would be useful to find out how many actual completions are taking place in spain, shouldn’t be too difficult to map as they could collate the figures from the land registry or Notaries. I suspect there are few her at the moment.
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