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Property in France is set to drop much further because earlier this month the new socialist French Government announced that it is to increase taxes on foreign-owned second homes. Tax on rental income will rise from 20 per cent to 35.5 per cent, and capital gains tax on property sales from 19 per cent to 34.5 per cent.
These tax increases together with the on-going problems in the Euro zone will mean that fewer foreigners will buy homes in France and more people will try to offload their properties in France which will result in property prices in France falling below those equivalent properties found in Spain.
It looks like a property in the south of France will become cheaper than equivalent properties on the cost-del-sol.
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More cobblers from you ‘jakesuper if I may say so. 👿
The French property market is totally different from Spain, it’s another planet.
I know the market very well and own a number of French properties. Yes the taxes will hurt but it will not effect the market very much.
Second homes owned by Brits in France tend to belong to the well heeled middle classes. They can take the hit.
France has very strict controls on it’s banks and lending and always has had. There have been no bubbles, no booms, no crash no over development on Micky Mouse credit.
Even accounting for regional differences the market is incredibly stable with small price drops across the board due to the general downturn in the economy.
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No boom in France? Thats no true, there has been boom and crash is happening.
The surge in home prices since 2000
From 1965 to 2000, the existing-home price index had been rising in parallel with income per household, subject to a fluctuation margin of ±10% (the « tunnel »). An exception, limited to one third of the territory (mostly the urban areas of Paris and of a few other cities such as Nice and Lyons), was the upsurge in home prices in the late 1980’s, then their reversion to the « tunnel » during the 1990’s.
From 2000 to 2010, home prices outgrew income per household, as well as rents, by 70%.
To purchase the same dwelling, a first-time buyer must borrow over 25 years in 2010 against 15 years in 1965 or 2000.
Households’ mortgage debt doubled in 10 years, from 30% of their income in the late 1990’s to 58% in 2010. It would reach 85% of their income in 2030 were home prices to stay at their current level with respect to income per household.See Chart here –
http://www.cgedd.developpement-durable.gouv.fr/IMG/pdf/french-house-price-1p_cle67351d-2.pdf
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I meant a Spanish style boom. There were increases during the period you quote but not on the scale suggested. They have since dropped back to the norms.
French property consistently delivers a minimum of 5% annual capital increase and has done for years. Yes there are spikes but generally it’s stable investment both for buy to let and private ownership.
It remains to be seen how these tax hikes will effect things but my best guess is not much. -
@logan wrote:
More cobblers from you ‘jakesuper if I may say so. 👿
The French property market is totally different from Spain, it’s another planet.
I know the market very well and own a number of French properties. Yes the taxes will hurt but it will not effect the market very much.
Second homes owned by Brits in France tend to belong to the well heeled middle classes. They can take the hit.
France has very strict controls on it’s banks and lending and always has had. There have been no bubbles, no booms, no crash no over development on Micky Mouse credit.
Even accounting for regional differences the market is incredibly stable with small price drops across the board due to the general downturn in the economy.
Logan,
I reckon that house prices in France will fall by 75% from peak to trough and that in a few years time you will be able to buy a three bedroom house in the south of France for as little as £40,000 (pounds sterling).
You are very mistaken if you think that the proposed rise in taxes on second-home owners in France will not have a big impact on property prices there. It will affect sentiment very badly indeed and you are only saying that it won’t make any difference because you have a vested interest in seeing that property prices in France don’t fall because you own many properties there.
The French property market will experience a blood on the streets crash as people will switch to buying property in Spain as property prices in Spain become significantly cheaper when Spain drops out of the euro. Cheaper property prices in Spain will make property in France even cheaper as people will buy properties in Spain rather than France and thereby reduce the demand for properties in France making property in France much much cheaper.
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[quote=”j
I reckon that house prices in France will fall by 75% from peak to trough and that in a few years time you will be able to buy a three bedroom house in the south of France for as little as £40,000 (pounds sterling).The French property market will experience a blood on the streets crash as people will switch to buying property in Spain as property prices in Spain become significantly cheaper when Spain drops out of the euro. Cheaper property prices in Spain will make property in France even cheaper as people will buy properties in Spain rather than France and thereby reduce the demand for properties in France making property in France much much cheaper.[/quote]
You are deluded jakespear. You don’t quite obviously don’t understand France or the French property market if you believe the nonsense you posted here.
It’s so silly I can’t even be bothered to write a rebuttle. -
@logan wrote:
You are deluded jakespear. You don’t quite obviously don’t understand France or the French property market if you believe the nonsense you posted here.
It’s so silly I can’t even be bothered to write a rebuttle.Logan,
The French property market behaves in exactly the same way as all other property markets in the capitalist free-market countries in that it follows an economic cycle of booms and busts and is subject to the laws of supply and demand. For you to suggest that somehow France is immune from the economic cycle and the effects of the euro crisis and the global recession is total nonsense. It is a certainty that house prices in France will fall dramatically over the next few years.
I suggest that you cut your losses and sell your entire property portfolio in France before it ends up worthless.
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The French property market behaves in exactly the same way as all other property markets in the capitalist free-market countries in that it follows an economic cycle of booms and busts and is subject to the laws of supply and demand.
Yes, and there are no other variables that can affect the market, right? No political upheavals, no terrorist attacks, no chance developments that lead to economic bubbles, no natural disasters, no complex global inter-dependencies. No, it is all entirely predictable in the Jake universe.
Logan, SELL NOW BEFORE IT IS TOO LATE – YOU’VE BEEN WARNED. BE AFRAID. BE VERY AFRAID.
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France is not Spain. It has a far bigger economy the second largest in Europe. It has almost double the population of Spain, major global industries, important and long established export companies, a highly skilled, educated and motivated workforce with job security. It’s GDP dwarfs Spain’s, is has cheaper borrowing costs and a strong banking sector. France also has cheap energy through a complex of nuclear power and is a world leader in the industry.
France is a highly developed sophisticated society. Wealth tends to remain in the country, the French buy French and stay in the country and even Hollande cannot change that. Sarkozy couldn’t and neither will anyone else.
France has always imposed strong controls upon consumer borrowing. Banks cannot lend above a certain criteria and rigorous checks are made on that credibility. A minimum of 30% ltv is required from a resident borrower in order to obtain a mortgage.
French people rarely speculate on property largely because it’s a waste of time. It’s very difficult to turn money over due to restrictions, taxes and selling costs. As a consequence the French tend to live in the same house all their lives.
If the global economy collapses as has been predicted by some then everything else will, everywhere else. Armageddon. That’s the only way I can see your daft and unjustified predictions coming true.
You make statements jakesuper and Gary of calamity without a single credible argument to back them up.
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“without a single credible argument to back them up.”
There is one which you have ignored, prices in France have boomed and they are falling now. Another is the fact that Frances economy is almost socialist. There are hundreds of thousands of French who have already abandoned France and are living in London, escaping the work envioronment.
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Peter
The boom you refer to was more a gradual price hike over a decade. I know exactly how my how properties value rose and have now fallen back by about 15% of peak value. It was modest in comparison to Spain and the UK. It reflected the booming performance of the global economy over the same period.France is a socialist country and does have many problems like everywhere else. However the population are also passionate nationalists and conservative, small ‘c’ at the same time.
France is one of the most developed, richest and sophisticated societies on the planet. I hate the massive contribution to maintaining that society we all have to make, taxes are confiscatory but generally it’s very fair and equal.
In the end you have to decide if you want to stay and help make the country stronger or bail out. At the moment I’m personally undecided but unworried about my investments or for the future of France.
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@logan wrote:
France is not Spain. It has a far bigger economy the second largest in Europe. It has almost double the population of Spain, major global industries, important and long established export companies, a highly skilled, educated and motivated workforce with job security. It’s GDP dwarfs Spain’s, is has cheaper borrowing costs and a strong banking sector. France also has cheap energy through a complex of nuclear power and is a world leader in the industry.
France is a highly developed sophisticated society. Wealth tends to remain in the country, the French buy French and stay in the country and even Hollande cannot change that. Sarkozy couldn’t and neither will anyone else.
France has always imposed strong controls upon consumer borrowing. Banks cannot lend above a certain criteria and rigorous checks are made on that credibility. A minimum of 30% ltv is required from a resident borrower in order to obtain a mortgage.
French people rarely speculate on property largely because it’s a waste of time. It’s very difficult to turn money over due to restrictions, taxes and selling costs. As a consequence the French tend to live in the same house all their lives.
If the global economy collapses as has been predicted by some then everything else will, everywhere else. Armageddon. That’s the only way I can see your daft and unjustified predictions coming true.
You make statements jakesuper and Gary of calamity without a single credible argument to back them up.
Logan,
The cheap electricity that France has is because France’s nuclear industry is heavily subsidised. France suffers from crippling amount of red tape and bureaucracy, high taxes, high transaction costs when buying and selling property, high unemployment, high levels of racial discrimination, suffers from chronic urban decay, has a bloated public sector and above all France is chronically inefficient which is why they are so terrified of their teutonic neighbour on their eastern frontier which is much more industrially efficient.
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Yes for once jakesuper I agree with some of that statement. However how is all that going to impact the property market?
Unemployment has been consistently high in France for 20 years. The huge social benefits unemployed people receive amount to a decent working wage, especially if you have three or more children. -
I agree with jakesuper about Spanish property, although I wish he wouldn’t gloat so. The personal tragedies unfolding in Spain are desperately sad. But he is wrong to generalise about France. I only know about the south-west, but I see none of the problems that occurred in Spain. There really was no bubble here. There was no building boom, no illegal building, no mass inrush of foreigners with borrowed money, and absolutely no relaxation of mortgage criteria by French banks. In France you pay 40% tax on any capital gain until you have owned the property for five years, after which the tax begins to tail off, and that also helped to prevent a speculative bubble developing. I doubt if there was any flipping here.
As logan points out, the Brits here are generally well-heeled retired people. I guess we are typical, with several sources of income, a nice house in England, a nice house here in France, and no mortgage or debt. I rent out the house here to English families in the summer, which earns about £25k a year for a few weeks work. Yes, next year, the tax I pay in France will increase, but due to double taxation relief, every cent of that will be offset against the tax I pay in England so the only loser will be the UK Government. I like my house here. I couldn’t care less what it’s worth, it’s value is meaningless to me because I don’t intend to sell it. It’s a house, not a bank account. But a house that can make you an income you could easily live off is unlikely to become worthless.
The vast majority of property here is owned by “old money”. Many houses here are only used for 2 or 3 weeks a year, when there will be a Merc with Parisian plates in the drive, and I don’t detect any distress there. In the last few years there has been a big increase in smaller, lower quality new homes being built, but they all seem to be inhabited by young French families, presumably with mortgages, so these are people with real jobs in the real economy. There are not many English people here, and in the 7 years we have been here we only know of one family who had to sell up and leave because their financial model was unrealistic. A few people will always get themselves into trouble, but the local market can easily accommodate that. It’s only when it becomes too many people that prices crash.
House prices here went up a bit during the boom years, but have settled back down now, and seem to me to be in line with the long term trend. There’s no shortage of land here so house prices tend to follow inflation. The price of building materials has gone through the roof lately which is having an effect, but France never was and probably never will be a sensible place to invest for quick capital gains.
The situation here is totally different from the Spanish costas. We looked at property near Murcia in 2003. We were taken to a vast estate of little boxes, and I knew instantly that we were looking at a future disaster. Before we left we had to sit through a hard sell session, and I’m not surprised that so many succumbed. It was truly horrific. But I knew then, and I still hold the same belief: Some of those horrible estates will eventually have to be bulldozed. We ran for the hills and I haven’t been back to Spain since.
You can’t compare France with Spain. Very different laws, taxes, and economies have created a very different ownership profile.
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Basil I agree with you and Logan, the French property market is totally different to that of Spain’s.
There was no mass over development going on in France, most agents were/are French local offices without the big chains of agents as in Spain, I don’t remember any Land Grab, illegal builds, poor construction, crooked Mayors in every Town Hall etc making headlines in France.
What I prefer with French property is there is such a lot of choice of character property available, maisons-en-pierre etc, then there’s the French markets, countryside to rival anywhere and all within a comfortable drive of the UK so no reliance on O’Dreary’s Crying Air and his rip-off add-ons etc.
IMO French property whilst it may not rise in price like the UK’s, will also not fall as low as prices in Spain because of the numbers involved, and Spain could still make a Euro exit first which could worsen things, totally different markets 🙄
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The unfolding economic and property catastrophe that is occurring in Spain will mean that as property prices in Spain become cheaper this will have the effect of causing more people to turn away from buying property in France and buy property in Spain instead because of the reduced prices in Spain. The demand for property in France is collapsing. The French property market is heading for a similar disaster to Spain because property prices in France had risen by 150% during the boom and those rises will inevitably have to be rolled back.
According to a report in the newspaper Le Parisien ‘the market is in freefall’ with estate agents and solicitors reporting sales of previously owned homes down between 17 per cent and 40 per cent since the start of the year.
British people with homes in France were today warned that the property market is in ‘free fall’. A combination of factors including the election of a tax-and-spend Socialist government means that prices are tumbling. It means an end to the boom years, when thousands of Britons poured money into rental or retirement investments across the Channel.
Britons with homes in France warned that French property market is in freefall
Property prices in France will fall by 80% from peak to trough as the ensuing euro zone crisis rumbles on.
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Can’t agree with you there jakeyboy, property in France is unlikely to fall by 80% as you say because there’s far less of it for sale especially new build as in Spain. It’s also more attractive generally and so close to the UK for Brits especially to get to.
When Spain’s property market finally floors there will be so much for sale and yes the bottom feeders will pick their way through it but it’s highly doubtful that it will all be absorbed.
France is still much more of a niche market especially Provence and parts of the South, and when the market falls further in France, Brits who have an historic attachment with buying there will start buying again.
Remember too, airfares and taxes are increasing and France is easy to get too.
I don’t share your gloom and doom scenario for France, I get emailed character properties in lovely towns like Pezenas in the South, stone built town houses for 140k or less look a lot more attractive than the awful rows of new town houses in Spain that lie unsold. I believe the system is more transparent and less corrupt in France in terms of volume.
As some have previously said, the two countries have completely different property markets 🙄
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@angie wrote:
IMO French property whilst it may not rise in price like the UK’s, …
Why are you so sure that UK prices will rise? all indications are that property bubbles burst, sooner or later. Indeed some say it’s already starting to happen in the UK
Home sellers have cut asking prices against the backdrop of recession fears and the distraction of the Olympics.
Jakesuper does go over the top in his predictions, but I agree with his principle stated here.
The French property market behaves in exactly the same way as all other property markets in the capitalist free-market countries in that it follows an economic cycle of booms and busts and is subject to the laws of supply and demand.
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@angie wrote:
Can’t agree with you there jakeyboy, property in France is unlikely to fall by 80% as you say because there’s far less of it for sale especially new build as in Spain. It’s also more attractive generally and so close to the UK for Brits especially to get to.
When Spain’s property market finally floors there will be so much for sale and yes the bottom feeders will pick their way through it but it’s highly doubtful that it will all be absorbed.
France is still much more of a niche market especially Provence and parts of the South, and when the market falls further in France, Brits who have an historic attachment with buying there will start buying again.
Remember too, airfares and taxes are increasing and France is easy to get too.
I don’t share your gloom and doom scenario for France, I get emailed character properties in lovely towns like Pezenas in the South, stone built town houses for 140k or less look a lot more attractive than the awful rows of new town houses in Spain that lie unsold. I believe the system is more transparent and less corrupt in France in terms of volume.
As some have previously said, the two countries have completely different property markets 🙄
If you had a choice between buying a cheap property in Spain or a similar property but at a more expensive price in France then the obvious choice is to buy the property in Spain. Afterall, Spain has better weather, better beaches, better lifestyle, better scenery/landscape, more beautiful countryside and more shops and bars suited to the British taste than France. Most people given the choice would choose to live in Spain rather than France but some people decided to buy property in France because they were priced out of the property market in Spain. This is changing now as property prices in Spain collapse and drop way below prices for similar properties in France, it means that there will be less demand for properties in France and this will cause house prices in France to collapse.
Once the penny drops many Brits who bought in France will decide to get out before their properties fall further in value which will further add to the supply of properties on sale in France which will depress prices even further. Expect house prices in France to fall dramatically over the next few years.
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I haven’t said categorically that UK property prices will rise, only that IMO French property prices may not rise like the UK’s.
True, all property bubbles burst, but it then comes down to supply and demand and whilst prices in the UK outside of London and suburbs and a few other hot spots are holding their own, many properties outside these areas are stabilising if not falling but not to the extent of many overseas markets, especially Spain’s. A shake out in the UK is no bad thing, there will be opportunities and for 1st time buyers to get on the ladder.
Supply and demand in the UK means there is often a false market in real terms, however historically the UK appears to buck the trend, or climbs again quicker than most. There’s no comparison really.
France is so different from Spain, I don’t remember France having anything like the boom that Spain had, and then followed by bust. I don’t think people can buy in France though to make quick profits, it’s not that sort of market. To buy relatively safely in France one has to stick to Provence mainly outside of the large Cities, but this is just my opinion.
There are less profitable opportunities in the UK than say a few years ago. 🙄
Jake, ‘better beaches and countryside in Spain than France’? This is down to individual choice both have great but different countryside, yes the weather is better but the drive to France is quicker, for’s and against’s everywhere. 🙄
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@jakesuper wrote:
@angie wrote:
Can’t agree with you there jakeyboy, property in France is unlikely to fall by 80% as you say because there’s far less of it for sale especially new build as in Spain. It’s also more attractive generally and so close to the UK for Brits especially to get to.
When Spain’s property market finally floors there will be so much for sale and yes the bottom feeders will pick their way through it but it’s highly doubtful that it will all be absorbed.
France is still much more of a niche market especially Provence and parts of the South, and when the market falls further in France, Brits who have an historic attachment with buying there will start buying again.
Remember too, airfares and taxes are increasing and France is easy to get too.
I don’t share your gloom and doom scenario for France, I get emailed character properties in lovely towns like Pezenas in the South, stone built town houses for 140k or less look a lot more attractive than the awful rows of new town houses in Spain that lie unsold. I believe the system is more transparent and less corrupt in France in terms of volume.
As some have previously said, the two countries have completely different property markets 🙄
If you had a choice between buying a cheap property in Spain or a similar property but at a more expensive price in France then the obvious choice is to buy the property in Spain. Afterall, Spain has better weather, better beaches, better lifestyle, better scenery/landscape, more beautiful countryside and more shops and bars suited to the British taste than France. Most people given the choice would choose to live in Spain rather than France but some people decided to buy property in France because they were priced out of the property market in Spain. This is changing now as property prices in Spain collapse and drop way below prices for similar properties in France, it means that there will be less demand for properties in France and this will cause house prices in France to collapse.
Once the penny drops many Brits who bought in France will decide to get out before their properties fall further in value which will further add to the supply of properties on sale in France which will depress prices even further. Expect house prices in France to fall dramatically over the next few years.
Are you just making this up as you go along?
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Listen people.
Prices are not in reality kept up by a demand for property “sure it’s a factor but it basicly has no bearing on the price of real estate in most countries” but the access to credits. If it becomes harder to loan/finance prices will drop no matter how few homes there are around in a certain area.
When credits dry up all prices will go down dramatically.
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@Chopera wrote:
Are you just making this up as you go along?
Lol, just what I was thinking 🙂
Jake, how do arrive at conclusions like “If you had a choice between buying a cheap property in Spain or a similar property but at a more expensive price in France then the obvious choice is to buy the property in Spain” and ” Spain has better weather, better beaches, better lifestyle, better scenery/landscape, more beautiful countryside and more shops and bars suited to the British taste than France.”?
That may well be your own preference and view, but that hardly qualifies you to speak for the rest of the British population does it?
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Well said Pete, whilst Jake makes various points, they are not necessarily the same as others see things. I happen to think France has fantastic countryside at least equal to Spain’s, and beaches too, it’s weather is pretty good for a lot of the year further South, it’s lifestyle is as good as, if not better than that in Spain, but a major factor is it is so easy to get there quickly by car from the UK. Totally different countries, lifestyle and property markets IMO.
I thought I was negative on Spanish property but Jake makes me look bullish in comparison. 😛
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@Ardun wrote:
Listen people.
Prices are not in reality kept up by a demand for property “sure it’s a factor but it basicly has no bearing on the price of real estate in most countries” but the access to credits. If it becomes harder to loan/finance prices will drop no matter how few homes there are around in a certain area.
When credits dry up all prices will go down dramatically.
That’s the point I’ve been trying to make to Jake on other threads: credit boom = property boom, credit crunch = property crash
Spain had a property boom on a national level and the common factor was easy credit. Expats only had an effect on relatively small parts of Spain, they don’t account for why prices went ballistic in places like Madrid for example.
I think in economics “demand” by definition involves the ability to pay as well as the desire to buy (so for example there might be a high desire to own a Bugatti Veyron but a low demand for it). If you take away the credit you take away the demand.
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Property only crashes when lots of people are forced to sell. There should be a crash in the UK right now but there isn’t because low interest rates enable most people to hang on. The point about France is that very few people would be in difficulty even if rates went back up. Where I am, the vast majority of property is not mortgaged, and what is mortgaged is under the same strict conditions as in the old days. There may be a few exceptions, perhaps the Dordogne, maybe some types of property in Paris, I don’t know, but where I am I do not see anything to suggest any kind of problem. There is no over-supply here. There are very few houses for sale here and unless a lot of people suddenly die, I don’t see that changing. I see quite a lot of houses currently being built to order, but none speculatively.
One of the things I love here is that people are not obsessed with money. People here don’t have the latest toys and gadgets, they drive scruffy old cars until they drop. They repair things instead of throwing them out. You couldn’t buy a pair of designer trainers here even if you wanted to. A trip to the dump here can tell you a lot about the local culture and how different it is from the UK. I am quite sure that, like me, the people here honestly could not care less about the monetary value of their houses, and they are not going to sell up if they think prices are going to fall.
At a higher level of course, France has too much debt like most other European countries, and the only way out for all of them is inflation. In the medium term, I would prefer to own property almost anywhere than have money sitting in the bank!
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@Basil wrote:
Property only crashes when lots of people are forced to sell.
This is not really true. Property crashes occur when there is a recession which causes the property market to become a buyers market. A property is only worth what a buyer is prepared to pay for the property and during a recession that is not going to be very much.
You somehow seem to think that France is immune from all the problems in the Eurozone but you are sadly mistaken. The property market is driven by sentiment in France just like everywhere else and right now sentiment about property is very bad right now in Europe and so you can expect some pretty big price falls for property on sale in France over the next few years.
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