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Not a very scientific survey, but since fotocasa is my favourite website to track what is happening in the region where I own, I started to record number of properties for sale in El Ejido.
270 Nov
242 Dec
311 Jan
338 FebThat’s a 25% increase in volume in 3 months.
Being a avid fan of Edward Hugh blog and watching closely what is happening in Greece, I can’t help feel we are reaching a turning point. I think 2010 is going to be a very interesting year for the Spanish property market and we see capitulation for sellers that have refused to accept the economic situation.
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@jp1 wrote:
Not a very scientific survey, but since fotocasa is my favourite website to track what is happening in the region where I own, I started to record number of properties for sale in El Ejido.
270 Nov
242 Dec
311 Jan
338 FebThat’s a 25% increase in volume in 3 months.
Being a avid fan of Edward Hugh blog and watching closely what is happening in Greece, I can’t help feel we are reaching a turning point. I think 2010 is going to be a very interesting year for the Spanish property market and we see capitulation for sellers that have refused to accept the economic situation.
I think the storm hasn’t hit us yet. Quantitve Easing (printing money), has been a desperate attempt to inflate the property bubble, and increase the electoral chances of new-liebour. Both Britain and Spain have hit the rocks. My prediction is we will see significant falls in valuations later this year. (However – I usually get things wrong 😉 , so perhaps prices have already bottomed out)
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@Four Ed wrote:
Many forecasters are predicting a positive return to Spanish house prices in the up and coming year. However, it has also been said that house prices could fall another 27% in 2010 due to over valuations. Who knows which way its going to go?
All forecasters have Vested-interests (for prices to fall or grow).
As Mark pointed out many times, there is a big difference between predicted prices in Barcelona, Madrid or Bilbao and the ones in overbuilt costal areas…
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According to fotocasa, resale property prices have risen for the first time in two years – but in specific areas. Cataluña and La Rioja top the list.
http://www.typicallyspanish.com/news/publish/article_25045.shtml
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According to fotocasa, resale property prices have risen for the first time in two years – but in specific areas. Cataluña and La Rioja top the list.
http://www.typicallyspanish.com/news/publish/article_25045.shtml
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Unfortunately not.
The domestic market in Cataluña is dead. Hardly any sales, hardly any mortgages. That is my best impression based on talking to developers and bank managers.
Counter intuitively, the healthiest segment at the moment is prime second homes in Barcelona and the posh Costa Brava. Why? Because buyers come from all over the place, so demand is diversified.
Mark
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Unfortunately not.
The domestic market in Cataluña is dead. Hardly any sales, hardly any mortgages. That is my best impression based on talking to developers and bank managers.
Counter intuitively, the healthiest segment at the moment is prime second homes in Barcelona and the posh Costa Brava. Why? Because buyers come from all over the place, so demand is diversified.
Mark
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@mark wrote:
Counter intuitively, the healthiest segment at the moment is prime second homes in Barcelona and the posh Costa Brava. Why? Because buyers come from all over the place, so demand is diversified.
Mark
Also because rich people do not need mortgages and they do not care about drops in price.
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@mark wrote:
Counter intuitively, the healthiest segment at the moment is prime second homes in Barcelona and the posh Costa Brava. Why? Because buyers come from all over the place, so demand is diversified.
Mark
Also because rich people do not need mortgages and they do not care about drops in price.
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@rt21 wrote:
According to the Typically Spanish website “Reuters announced yesterday (10th February 2010) the Banco de Espana has advised its member banks to devalue those housing assets currently languishing on their books by 20%. This is excellent news for Spain. “
Is 20% enough or should it be more ?
Richard
20% should be a good start…
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@rt21 wrote:
According to the Typically Spanish website “Reuters announced yesterday (10th February 2010) the Banco de Espana has advised its member banks to devalue those housing assets currently languishing on their books by 20%. This is excellent news for Spain. “
Is 20% enough or should it be more ?
Richard
20% should be a good start…
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mark wrote:Unfortunately not.
The domestic market in Cataluña is dead. Hardly any sales, hardly any mortgages. That is my best impression based on talking to developers and bank managers.
Counter intuitively, the healthiest segment at the moment is prime second homes in Barcelona and the posh Costa Brava. Why? Because buyers come from all over the place, so demand is diversified.
Mark
Mark
What’s happening with prices on the ‘sleepy’ Costa Dorada?
Sonsoles
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mark wrote:Unfortunately not.
The domestic market in Cataluña is dead. Hardly any sales, hardly any mortgages. That is my best impression based on talking to developers and bank managers.
Counter intuitively, the healthiest segment at the moment is prime second homes in Barcelona and the posh Costa Brava. Why? Because buyers come from all over the place, so demand is diversified.
Mark
Mark
What’s happening with prices on the ‘sleepy’ Costa Dorada?
Sonsoles
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Sonsoles:
You are looking for a house in Spain. I am from Valencia, so I am not objective, but I think that between Denia and Gandia (with the exception of Oliva town) are beautiful beaches. The mountains are quite near to the cost, and between the cost and the beaches are lakes, orange trees, rice crops…. You should take a look. Pego an inland town is nice as well.
Regards.
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Sonsoles:
You are looking for a house in Spain. I am from Valencia, so I am not objective, but I think that between Denia and Gandia (with the exception of Oliva town) are beautiful beaches. The mountains are quite near to the cost, and between the cost and the beaches are lakes, orange trees, rice crops…. You should take a look. Pego an inland town is nice as well.
Regards.
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I could well be in a position to make some choices on the Spanish and English property markets this year, not a big deal, but only on a personal basis, hence my membership of this and similar forums and my constant monitoring of anything to do with property in either country and farther afield.
It’s been a maddening two years, at least, and nobody appears to have a clue what is happening, at least in the real world. The various ‘official’ figures in both countries vary to such a degree that there is no point in even looking at them. So where do you look?
My bank manager here in Spain says that they are lending again, the same as before, and even more so if it’s a repossessed property (by them). A mortgage broker in the UK insists that mortgages are available in numbers, with falling deposits and various other schemes.
I don’t have the choice not to make some kind of change, for personal reasons, and I feel sorry for anyone in the same boat, I’m rowing round in circles.
(And the pound and the Euro are also very relevant and that’s an even bigger circus).
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On the thread about Spanish Property Glut, I posted on Friday 7 May that fotocasa was showing 325,000 homes for sale. I rounded the figure as it wasn’t exactly 000 at the end.
On 12 May the exact figure was 328,378
Today the exact figure is 331,884.
This is an increase of nearly 7000 properties in 10 days!! That is the size of a small town/resort
It will be interesting to see what this value tops out as and when, as I think it will give some indication of when we reach the bottom. As long as this figure is increasing at this huge rate, prices are going to be under a huge downward pressure.
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@jp1 wrote:
On the thread about Spanish Property Glut, I posted on Friday 7 May that fotocasa was showing 325,000 homes for sale. I rounded the figure as it wasn’t exactly 000 at the end.
On 12 May the exact figure was 328,378
Today the exact figure is 331,884.
This is an increase of nearly 7000 properties in 10 days!! That is the size of a small town/resort
It will be interesting to see what this value tops out as and when, as I think it will give some indication of when we reach the bottom. As long as this figure is increasing at this huge rate, prices are going to be under a huge downward pressure.
331,884
– 328,378
= 3506
you make it sound twice as bad and the spanish officials make it half as bad if only people would say it how it is then maybe we would all know where we stand -
@dartboy wrote:
@jp1 wrote:
On the thread about Spanish Property Glut, I posted on Friday 7 May that fotocasa was showing 325,000 homes for sale. I rounded the figure as it wasn’t exactly 000 at the end.
On 12 May the exact figure was 328,378
Today the exact figure is 331,884.
This is an increase of nearly 7000 properties in 10 days!! That is the size of a small town/resort
It will be interesting to see what this value tops out as and when, as I think it will give some indication of when we reach the bottom. As long as this figure is increasing at this huge rate, prices are going to be under a huge downward pressure.
331,884
– 328,378
= 3506
you make it sound twice as bad and the spanish officials make it half as bad if only people would say it how it is then maybe we would all know where we standJp said 7000 properties in 10 days. What you count is 3500 in 5 days which is the same as Jp.
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@flosmichael wrote:
@dartboy wrote:
@jp1 wrote:
On the thread about Spanish Property Glut, I posted on Friday 7 May that fotocasa was showing 325,000 homes for sale. I rounded the figure as it wasn’t exactly 000 at the end.
On 12 May the exact figure was 328,378
Today the exact figure is 331,884.
This is an increase of nearly 7000 properties in 10 days!! That is the size of a small town/resort
It will be interesting to see what this value tops out as and when, as I think it will give some indication of when we reach the bottom. As long as this figure is increasing at this huge rate, prices are going to be under a huge downward pressure.
331,884
– 328,378
= 3506
you make it sound twice as bad and the spanish officials make it half as bad if only people would say it how it is then maybe we would all know where we standJp said 7000 properties in 10 days. What you count is 3500 in 5 days which is the same as Jp.
missed the bit at the top that said 325000
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@dartboy wrote:
…..if only people would say it how it is then maybe we would all know where we stand
Yep always helps to read the post correctly!!
Anyway what I am posting is exactly what you wish for, real data that hides nothing. I only realised that this site can give you an excellent insight into what is happening. Have a look at it youself at the end of the week and see how many more properties are being advertised as people realise that the situation is not going to get any better any time soon. We are approaching capitulation.
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I have to agree, there is more property being offered for sale. We are noticing that many Spanish seem to be downsizing, and there is more than a hint of desperation with the sellers we meet. We have had significantly drops of the asking price as we walk through the door, and then saying that, the asking price is meaningless, if we like their house, just please put in an offer.
Yesterday, I did another sweep of houses with land in San Vicente de Raspeig. Normally I find 4 or 5 prospective candidates. Yesterday the count was over 20! That’s quite a change in that area. Prices appear good when compared to the peak levels, but when you consider affordability, maybe not so good.
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During my ten-minute walk to the bank, I pass around 80 houses, about 20 of which are definitely for sale. The houses are quite different, but the ones in the 150 to 200K price range are down 100K in price from two years ago.
At their current price they appear attractive, the standard three bedrooms, swimming pool and 400 metres, but they have already fallen by 30 to 40% in value and the trend appears downwards.
Close to the bank are one of the few remaining estate agents, recently opened, but I wouldn’t go near them after finding out that they have moved up from the CDS and there are a couple of BMWs with Malaga plates parked a few streets away, never outside their premises.
I know it might be stupid thing to say, but they even look like crooks. Like that guy from Trampolin Hills, how can you buy anything from someone like that?
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@jp1 wrote:
@dartboy wrote:
…..if only people would say it how it is then maybe we would all know where we stand
Yep always helps to read the post correctly!!
Anyway what I am posting is exactly what you wish for, real data that hides nothing. I only realised that this site can give you an excellent insight into what is happening. Have a look at it youself at the end of the week and see how many more properties are being advertised as people realise that the situation is not going to get any better any time soon. We are approaching capitulation.
What’s the average household income in El Ejido? 15K Euros/year or more?
How many tourists are coming to Almerimar every year?
Is there any reason why anybody would buy a 2 bedroom apt. for more than 50K Euros there?
In fotocasa decent apartments there are for sale for more than 80-90K Euros. I would not define that as capitulation… -
@jp1 wrote:
On the thread about Spanish Property Glut, I posted on Friday 7 May that fotocasa was showing 325,000 homes for sale. I rounded the figure as it wasn’t exactly 000 at the end.
On 12 May the exact figure was 328,378
Today the exact figure is 331,884.
This is an increase of nearly 7000 properties in 10 days!! That is the size of a small town/resort
It will be interesting to see what this value tops out as and when, as I think it will give some indication of when we reach the bottom. As long as this figure is increasing at this huge rate, prices are going to be under a huge downward pressure.
Now showing 343,896 28 days later.
An increase of circa 12,000 or 120,000 properties across Spain if you consider fotocasa has 10% of the market.
22nd May — Rate of new properties on market = 7000 per day across Spain
14th June — Rate of new properties on market = 5000 per day across SpainIf this rate (average of 6000) remains constants for the next 6 months then that is another 1 million properties for sale above the number on the market today!
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I’m not convinced that the reported increase in the number of properties for sale on Fotocasa is particularly relevant. Spring is well known as the time of year that most people look to buy or sell properties. It could be that the increase you reported simply reflected that.
To only way to know for sure is to keep recording the figures for a longer period, well over a year, then try to draw some sense from those stats.
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As someone who is lookin to buy in the future in the Villamartin/Surrounding area, I just wonder how low prices will fall.
anyone got ay guesstimates?
I’ve been looing at thee figures and wondering when it will stop?
http://www.kyero.com/house_prices/1822-torrevieja-house-prices
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I agree the rate is probably prone to wide fluctuations. However the main point is to post the actual number of properties for sale.
I sold a property through fotocasa last year and at the time the advert was only valid for 3 months. After 3 months if you did not update the advert it was deleted. The terms and condition seem to indicate that today the advert will be valid for 12 months but other areas of the site indicate that 90 days is the validity period and then the advert expires.
A lot of single adverts are by developers whereby they advertise 30 of more apartments under one entry. So the absolute number of properties is a lot more that the figure it reports on it’s site. It certainly does not hold 10% of the market as well.
So the main point is that in the best possible light fotocasa implies that there are 3~4 million properties for sale. All uploaded in the last 12 months and this number is increasing at a large rate. In reality I expect the real figure is double this value.
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@Rocker wrote:
During my ten-minute walk to the bank, I pass around 80 houses, about 20 of which are definitely for sale. The houses are quite different, but the ones in the 150 to 200K price range are down 100K in price from two years ago.
At their current price they appear attractive, the standard three bedrooms, swimming pool and 400 metres, but they have already fallen by 30 to 40% in value and the trend appears downwards.
Close to the bank are one of the few remaining estate agents, recently opened, but I wouldn’t go near them after finding out that they have moved up from the CDS and there are a couple of BMWs with Malaga plates parked a few streets away, never outside their premises.
I know it might be stupid thing to say, but they even look like crooks. Like that guy from Trampolin Hills, how can you buy anything from someone like that?
when you say Crooks what would I be looking out for?
As someone who has never b ought property in spain, what are they trying to fleece you for?
Is their an unbiased online guide or anything like that?
Or even a good ook on buying property in spain we’re in no rush, so tryg to do loads of research before jumping into anything.
thanks for any advice.
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Liam
All I can advise is that you take your time and keep researching. This site and the web are full of well documented cases where people have been swindled by a whole range of people from dodgy property developers to their own lawyers. Most independent observers believe the market still has some way to fall. Do not be taken in by people saying ‘now is the best time to buy’ or something along those lines.
jp1
I took from your initial posts, such as this one in May, that you were implying that there were a lot more properties coming onto the market than before.
270 Nov
242 Dec
311 Jan
338 Feb
356 Mar
410 MayNow a 50% increase in advertised properties during the last 6 months!!! And the rate seems to be accelerating
My observation is simply that this could well just be a seasonal increase. That six months figures simply aren’t enough to support such a case.
Nobody disputes that there are a mountain of unsold properties on the market. How many is anybodys guess. I have read figures between 500k and 3 million.
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@brianc_li wrote:
Liam
All I can advise is that you take your time and keep researching. This site and the web are full of well documented cases where people have been swindled by a whole range of people from dodgy property developers to their own lawyers. Most independent observers believe the market still has some way to fall. Do not be taken in by people saying ‘now is the best time to buy’ or something along those lines.
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Thanks very much, Its alot to take in, so i’m just trawling the internet for information more or less everyday now, like i say, we’re in no rush, so will be checking out every avenue.
i assume the safest way to buy is to go for a property that has been lived in, rather than a rustic new build (Hearing of illegal land and other stories) or a complex off plan and to defaintely make sure you get an independant laywer to sort out all the legalities.
Are these easy to find and how would you even go about it?
I know I sound silly, but I’m very much starting at the start, so any info will be appreciated.
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Impossible to tell, Torre was hit hard by the crash, and it seems to have more than it’s fair share of unsold homes still.
I’m pretty sure we aren’t at the bottom of the market yet, it seems to me that Spain’s economic issues have a long way to run before we will see growth.
However, Torre is a bit different, as it was heavily influenced by overseas buyers. Even so, buyers will think twice before buying into Greece mkII.
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Liam,
One book that is well worth getting and reading is ‘You and the law in Spain’ by David Searl.
http://www.amazon.co.uk/You-Law-Spain-David-Searl/dp/8489954410
In the current market I would say forget new builds completely. There seem to be so many problems with bad developers, poorly set up communities, illegal builds, etc that it strikes me as a minefield best to be avoided.
An independent lawyer with a decent reputation is crucial. Above all do not use one recommended by whichever estate agent you use. Mark has a list on here somewhere. Perhaps he or someone could link to it.
Be aware that many asking prices are ridiculously high. Most sales on the costas are going through at 30%-50% discount on the 2007 prices. Many asking prices have hardly dropped since then. Be prepared to drive a very hard bargain.
I started looking almost two years ago. At the start, and ever since then, I have had EAs telling me ‘Now is the best time to buy’. I didn’t believe them then. That proved to be right. I still don’t believe them hence me still holding back.
There has also been a string of press articles over the past four years, usually originated by those with vested interests, suggesting that the market has bottomed. These have all been cobblers. Be very sceptical about what you read.
Don’t just restrict your research to properties and the property market. The state of the Spanish economy is just as relevant. Things such as 20% unemployment, austerity measures kicking in, dubious bank stability and a risk of the IMF/ECB being called in to the rescue will all have an impact on the housing market.
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Thanks for all that advice and i’d be grateful if someone did have a list of independant lawyers, I’m looking to buy in villamartin/surrounding areas, its a holiday/retirement home so not looking for investment potential really (although obviously you don’t wanna be ripped off, but i mean its not gonna be resold in hte next 10 years of so…I think!).
The house will be bought for cash, so does that make a difference?
We’re looking in the 80000 to 100000 price range.
Again, Thansk for anyone who can offer me any advice, no matter how insignaficant you think it is.
I’ll probably order that book today, cheers.
And I already signed up for that mark!
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@Liam10uk wrote:
Thanks for all that advice and i’d be grateful if someone did have a list of independant lawyers
http://www.spanishpropertyinsight.com/buff/lawyers/list-of-lawyers-in-spain/
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Hi Liam
Re. David Searle’s book, make sure you get the updated 16th edition (will have a logo saying that on the front cover) – it will include latest law changes.
And don’t be put off by the title, it’s totally readable, comprehensively informative with no gobbledy gook language.Three things to be aware of:
1. Don’t expect lawyers in Spain to automatically give the same service as English lawyers, they don’t.
So you have to insist they do a search re. legality (many don’t bother) not only with the local Town Hall but with the regional Junta as well, no matter how old or lived-in the property is.2. As Mark’s thread on timeshare states, “under Spanish law, even if a property is sold on all it’s debts and encumberments are passed to the new owners” so this also needs checking by your lawyer.
3. Don’t give your Power of Attorney unless absolutely necessary or if your lawyer has been highly recommended. Personally I think it is far better and worth the airfare to travel to Spain for any signings. We know of a lawyer who calmly helped himself! And never give it to an Estate Agent, yes some have been known to ask for it.
All advice not to be in a hurry and to rent first for as long as possible is spot on – your learning curve will be faster and more thorough. I wish you good luck for a future safe purchase, equipped with the right knowledge it will be.
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@angela wrote:
Hi Liam10uk,
I have given advice as has Rocker on one of your previous posts. Most people’s advice would be to rent and look at the various areas – rather than jump in and buy. Sorry if it sounds harsh.
I understand that and you gave me good advice in the other thread.
But we don’t really have the luxury of renting for 3/6/9 months due to work commitments, I think we will have to have a look over various trips over the next year, also property prices may come down further over the next year.
Like i said, we are in no rush at all, just trying to find out as much info as I can.
This board is a big help.
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Hi Liam10uk,
No I don’t mean rent for several months at a time even if you are over for a week or two – go to the different areas and visit them. I know when I was buying I researched different areas and bought books and when I went there then it was like exactly what is said on the tin. When we went to buy we went to look at where we bought now and we went to look at another place in Campomar because we feel in love with the beach but it was further out – eventually we got good advice – were told that where the beach was it was more like a ghost town in winter – but where we bought there would always be plenty of life around and better if we wanted to rent.
Angela
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@angela wrote:
Hi Liam10uk,
No I don’t mean rent for several months at a time even if you are over for a week or two – go to the different areas and visit them. I know when I was buying I researched different areas and bought books and when I went there then it was like exactly what is said on the tin. When we went to buy we went to look at where we bought now and we went to look at another place in Campomar because we feel in love with the beach but it was further out – eventually we got good advice – were told that where the beach was it was more like a ghost town in winter – but where we bought there would always be plenty of life around and better if we wanted to rent.
Angela
Yeah, thats what we are planning on doing going out there over the next year as many times as it takes to try to check out the areas and weigh up all the opinions, then try to to come kind of informed decision.
Where do you buy in the end?
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Hi Liam10uk,
We bought in an urbanisation called Zeniamar which is located between punta prima and playa flemenca – ideal for our needs with children near to shops, restaurants, and the urbanisation is quiet – summer months can be noiser. Also nearness to airports is a big factor. I will say as a family we are happy where we bought and it is very family orientated and safe. I have often stayed with the kids on my own and felt very safe.
Angela
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Hi Liam10uk,
For me when I was buying I wanted to have a good mix of nationalites as I was buying in an urbanisation. We are surround by Norwegians, German, Belgian, Spanish, Scottish, English, Irish, Dutch, Danish, Finnish and so on – I like the diffrent cultures. I didn’t want to buy where the neighbours are all irish or all english. The areas may look close together but when walking they are not as close as the seem – very close by car. Villamartin is only 10 min drive from our place, punta prima 20 min walk, playa flemenca 15 minute walk. Personally I wouldn’t want to live near the centro commercial in playa flemenca or near Abbey Tavern or near Emerald Isle – because of the noise at night. I like to be able to walk to them and leave them behind when I’m leaving.
Angela
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