Press articles about the Spanish property situation

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    • #56416
      Anonymous
      Participant

      Every day or so I read articles in the press about the situation in Spain, in particular the property market drama. I’m going to start linking to them on this thread. Feel free to add a link if I miss something.

      This article goes into the human drama behind the crash. Families losing their homes whilst millions of properties stand empty. The situation is crazy.
      Spanish property bubble fallout continues with evictions, debt and fear of homelessness

      This article is more about the economy, but much of the economic damage was done by the property boom.
      Stalled Spanish economy veers towards recession

      This is the article I posted the other day, finally found the link. The Valencian Govt. has a lot to answer for.
      POISON LINGERS FROM SPAIN’S PROPERTY BINGE

    • #106504
      Anonymous
      Participant

      @mark wrote:

      Every day or so I read articles in the press about the situation in Spain, in particular the property market drama. I’m going to start linking to them on this thread. Feel free to add a link if I miss something.

      This article goes into the human drama behind the crash. Families losing their homes whilst millions of properties stand empty. The situation is crazy.
      Spanish property bubble fallout continues with evictions, debt and fear of homelessness

      This article is more about the economy, but much of the economic damage was done by the property boom.
      Stalled Spanish economy veers towards recession

      This is the article I posted the other day, finally found the link. The Valencian Govt. has a lot to answer for.
      POISON LINGERS FROM SPAIN’S PROPERTY BINGE

      From one of the articles:
      “Emanuel, the man facing eviction, bought the apartment in August 2006, when the property bubble in Spain was near its peak. At the time, the flat cost him €234,000, and now is worth only €117,000. In 2009, he lost his job and was unable to continue usual payments. Despite continuing to contribute half of his social benefit and sole source of income every month, the banks issued an eviction notice and embargoed his accounts. “They said I have to leave,” he says. “But I don’t have anywhere else to go.”
      Having lost their homes, those evicted must still pay 40 per cent of the debt at the time of purchase, as well as judicial fees of up to €40,000-€60,000.
      One man at the PAH meeting, threatened with eviction on the 1st of December, will still owe €130,000 to the bank even after they take his house”

      Firstly, the €117,000 apartment will probably be valued at most 40000-50000 at the end up the up-coming second leg of the recession. So Emanuel would be wise to take the losses now.

      Then, who lent him €234,000 in the first place? And why?

      How is he going to repay the current about €130,000 debt, without even having the apartment?

      It just shows that we are in the initial phases of the crisis.

      The USA solution was to allow market to de3cide on the prices of undesirable apartment/houses and they took a 90% price hit before they generated some interest. Are Spanish banks ever going to allow this for the million apartments that not many want?

    • #106506
      Chopera
      Participant

      @flosmichael wrote:


      Then, who lent him €234,000 in the first place? And why?

      He was lent the money by a person who’s job/income depended on lending the money, regardless of whether it was going to be paid back and regardless of whether the property was really going to be worth that amount in a few years time.

      @flosmichael wrote:

      How is he going to repay the current about €130,000 debt, without even having the apartment?

      He won’t.

      @flosmichael wrote:

      It just shows that we are in the initial phases of the crisis.

      The USA solution was to allow market to de3cide on the prices of undesirable apartment/houses and they took a 90% price hit before they generated some interest. Are Spanish banks ever going to allow this for the million apartments that not many want?

      Only if someone else is going to pick up the bill.

    • #106508
      Anonymous
      Participant
    • #106512
      GarySFBCN
      Participant

      “They said I have to leave,” he says. “But I don’t have anywhere else to go.”
      Having lost their homes, those evicted must still pay 40 per cent of the debt at the time of purchase, as well as judicial fees of up to €40,000-€60,000.

      The irony is that it is in the bank’s best interest to renegotiate the mortgage down, either with lower payments or lowering the overall mortgage amount because now they are stuck with yet another property on their books. Maybe they didn’t realize that there is a real estate crisis or something. 😀

      Bank’s are run by criminals and idiots.

    • #106551
      Anonymous
      Participant
    • #106564
      Anonymous
      Participant

      This article at Bloomberg today is well worth the read. I warn you, it’s not cheerful 🙁

      ‘Unsellable’ Real Estate Threatens Spanish Banks

      And more gloom from Robert Peston at the BBC
      Spain becomes eurozone’s weaker link

    • #106566
      Anonymous
      Participant

      @mark wrote:

      This article at Bloomberg today is well worth the read. I warn you, it’s not cheerful 🙁

      ‘Unsellable’ Real Estate Threatens Spanish Banks

      There is quite a big contradiction in this paragraph:

      “Spain has 1 million new homes that won’t be completely absorbed by the market until the middle of 2017,” Fernando Acuna Ruiz, managing partner of Taurus Iberica, said in an interview in Madrid. “Prices will fall a further 15 to 20 percent in the next two to three years.”

      I mean, they have a huge excess of homes that nobody seem to want but they only predict a lean 15%-20% price decrease??? Are they joking or just being ignorant?

    • #106619
      GarySFBCN
      Participant

      reposted to another thread – sorry.

    • #106622
      Anonymous
      Participant
    • #106731
      GarySFBCN
      Participant

      Prepare for riots in euro collapse, Foreign Office warns
      British embassies in the eurozone have been told to draw up plans to help British expats through the collapse of the single currency, amid new fears for Italy and Spain.
      http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/8917077/Prepare-for-riots-in-euro-collapse-Foreign-Office-warns.html

      Eurozone looks to International Monetary Fund as contagion spreads
      Eurozone leaders were tonight looking again to the International Monetary Fund (IMF) to help countries in distress as bond yields in Italy and Spain hit new highs and the credit-ratings agency Standard & Poor’s (S&P) downgraded Belgium.
      http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2011/nov/25/eurozone-crisis-ecb-imf-bonds

    • #106815
      Anonymous
      Participant

      Valencian politicians + easy money = CAM. FT article on attempts to sell the savings bank that went mad in the property boom
      http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/b05cd90a-1b6b-11e1-85f8-00144feabdc0.html#axzz1fCoq0mUu

      A few days old, but worth a read nevertheless:
      http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/dc3348c0-0edc-11e1-b585-00144feabdc0.html#axzz1ezba8n6f

    • #106818
      Anonymous
      Participant

      What pisses me off is that most of these problems could be sort of solved if the banks lowered their valuations. Instead they are amongst themselves trying to screw Spains people over. Why not let ordinary people have the possibility to buy property at 50-65% valuations? That would be bad for the banks but instead they can sell large portfolios amongst themselves for lower valuations.

      What CAM have done is just a huge scam and it’s incredible that none is bringing it up. I had friends that worked there that basicly was told to shut up or else they could find a new jobs when they started asking questions of why they made these trades. Other banks traded their bad stocks of properties “people that are late on payments etc” in exchange for good stocks from CAM. CAM was setup to fail and let the tax payers take the damage. Not surprisingly you will see the big guns at CAM getting new jobs over at rivaling banks.

    • #106826
      angie
      Blocked

      Firstly, although Mark has locked that topic on the Irishman, that news is really good and I look forward to Spain also locking him up (not Mark), they could of course lock a whole bunch of other dodgy agents up too if they mean to try and install clarity and confidence in their property market.

      The links on that topic though lead to a lot about Cyprus and it’s own crashed property market, as well as it’s finances.

      ‘Cyprus is on the edge of a precipice’ their Governor says today. Small fry compared to Spain but along with Belgium’s problems it all adds to more Eurozone gloom and Greek debt etc 🙄

      Merv King has just issued another Eurozone warning too 😉

      This situation can’t drag on forever, something’s going to happen with a bang methinks ❗

    • #106837
      DBMarcos99
      Participant

      Well it’s from a property site (so a VI) but the following article claims more property buyers are now looking at Spain, perhaps in search of a bargain

      http://www.propertyshowrooms.com/spain/property/news/more-property-buyers-looking-spain_311778.html

      Richard Way, editor at the firm, told the website that budget is a key consideration for those thinking of entering a real estate market abroad.

      He added that countries like Spain are doing well because they are relatively easy to reach from the UK and the journey is usually inexpensive.

      Earlier this month, journalist and author Anna Nicholas stressed the importance of visiting the country several times before committing to a property purchase.

      She explained it is important to get an idea of what the area you are considering buying in is like at different times of the year, to ensure it will meet your needs in both summer and winter.

      I know most here like to be negative, but I can see the appeal for someone in their 50s/60s who’s thinking of a retirement place. Especially if they’re going to be made redundant back in the UK. Sell their Hackney 2 bedroom house for 350k (I’m not making that up!), buy a place in Murcia or Almeria for 120k and enjoy the sun. Of course the reality isn’t always like that, especially if you don’t speak the language or choose the location carefully. It’s also dangerous knowing what to do with your remaining savings – if you’d kept your money in sterling, it would have crashed from 1.60 Euros to 1.17 currently. Plus interest rates have been quite low. Who can definitely predict currency rates for the future? My guess is that Spain may leave the Euro, we’ll see an initial gain in the pound exchange rate of between 10% and 20%, but this gain to be wiped out within 2 years. But that’s just a guess, and as likely to be as wrong as most other peoples’ guesses. An additional thing to consider is that local authorities may decide to tax property owners as an efficient way of generating revenue.

    • #106844
      katy
      Blocked

      I would take anything you read on a property website with a pinch of salt. A quick google shows lots of Agents claiming that property sales were up in Sept/Oct yet official Spanish Gov. stats state that sales were down and even lower than last year.

      In the good old days 😀 You could sell a modest detached in the UK, buy a villa with pool (in a good area), a new car and still be left with a decent sum to invest. If the house was in Wimbledon etc. then you could buy a small boat too! However then the cost of living was low in Spain too, not like now when many things cost more in Spain than the UK.

      Currency rates…quién sabe! Many ex-pats were advised to change all their sterling into euro on it’s launch. many did at the rate of 1.42….within months the rate was 1.60+ so they lost out big time, plus the euros invested were earning less interest than the UK rates. I think it is time to pull up the drawbridge right now and wait.

    • #106846
      DBMarcos99
      Participant

      Currency rates…quién sabe! Many ex-pats were advised to change all their sterling into euro on it’s launch. many did at the rate of 1.42….within months the rate was 1.60+ so they lost out big time, plus the euros invested were earning less interest than the UK rates. I think it is time to pull up the drawbridge right now and wait.

      The currency rate has gone down from 1.60 to around 1.17, so I think the people who’ve lost out most in this time are those who kept their savings in sterling. (I don’t remember people being advised to transfer to Euros – all websites including this one always assume the UK pound is stronger long term than the euro). But you are right – who can accurately predict the currency rates in the future? As I stated earlier, I think Spain is about to go back to its own currency, but I could be totally mistaken on that. If anyone is making the move, the only sensible advice is to hedge – keep a good percentage (at least 30%?) in a different country to that where you’re incurring your living expenses. But never trust one place with 100%.

    • #106896
      katy
      Blocked

      http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2011/dec/04/economic-crisis-the-pain-in-spain

      Not as optimistic as the FT one yesterday, however, it isn’t based on rent a quote estate agents :mrgreen:

    • #106897
      DBMarcos99
      Participant

      @katy wrote:

      http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2011/dec/04/economic-crisis-the-pain-in-spain

      Not as optimistic as the FT one yesterday, however, it isn’t based on rent a quote estate agents :mrgreen:

      I agree, it’s quite a well-balanced article. For example the last paragraph:

      The Costa boom is over. The empty houses and urbanisations carry ever-reducing price-tags. For those expats battered by the economic storms when all they sought was a little quiet sun the choices are stark: stay and make the best of it – al-fresco eating and fresh fish included – or head home to an uncertain future in a land that now looks rather less kindly on new arrivals.

      Lower property prices are good news for prospective buyers, but a huge worry for those wanting to jump ship. Same in the UK outside the south-east, although at least here you can rent out to housing benefit claimants and get the rent paid. It must be very stressful for those who have to head back to the UK, where the economic situation is also worsening, yet a glass of wine or a beer costs nearly £4 (the article implies a lot of expats are big drinkers 😉 ).

    • #106898
      Inez
      Participant

      I was recently back in the UK for 8 weeks and found some costs a lot higher but others cheaper. Running a car there was mad in comparison to here although purchasing a second hand car in the UK is a lot cheaper. I was amazed you can buy a steam iron for less than £4 too!!

      A glass of wine wasnt that expensive in Crawley where I was and multipacks of food is on a par with here. Fruit more expensive in the UK though so living healthily pushes the price up.

      I would still live in Spain any day of the week than the UK, sometimes the quality of life – from my personal perspective – is more important than earning more money to exist.

    • #106899
      DBMarcos99
      Participant

      @Inez wrote:

      I was recently back in the UK for 8 weeks and found some costs a lot higher but others cheaper. Running a car there was mad in comparison to here although purchasing a second hand car in the UK is a lot cheaper. I was amazed you can buy a steam iron for less than £4 too!!

      A glass of wine wasnt that expensive in Crawley where I was and multipacks of food is on a par with here. Fruit more expensive in the UK though so living healthily pushes the price up.

      I would still live in Spain any day of the week than the UK, sometimes the quality of life – from my personal perspective – is more important than earning more money to exist.

      Well yes, there are always things that can be found cheaper. Where I live it does cost close to £4 for a beer or glass of wine, but at the end of the day these are not essentials, and besides you can always get cheap beer in the supermarket, if you like drinking at home (I don’t). For me it’s the essential things in the UK that tend to be more expensive – housing costs, public transport, council tax etc. But yes there are a lot of other things that cost more in Spain eg internet access, books etc. Swings and roundabouts I suppose. Quality of life is what you make it, I don’t think you miss out by being in the UK as opposed to being in Spain.

    • #107049
      Anonymous
      Participant
    • #104555
      katy
      Blocked

      Hmm. interesting comments re. Spains flawed legal system. They still may not get any money back despite paying thousands in legal fees for 6 years 👿

      I wonder if the outcome would have been the same if it had been a Spanish developer 😐

    • #107058
      katy
      Blocked

      8 of the world’s most distressed property spots.

      Spain features of course, says you can buy properties at 60% off with 100% mortgages…….really 😮

      http://www.dailymail.co.uk/money/mortgageshome/article-2071640/The-worlds-distressed-property-markets–grab-bargain-house.html

    • #107060
      DBMarcos99
      Participant

      Some interesting things happening out there, according to this report from the business website Expansion.com (in Spanish)

      http://www.expansion.com/2011/12/09/empresas/inmobiliario/1323421891.html

      Although most areas, especially touristic Med Spain, are seeing substantive falls in properties sold, the numbers are actually rising in the prosperous north. Navarra and Catalunya have the biggest gains.

      Cinco Comunidades Autónomas registraron variaciones interanuales positivas, destacando Navarra y Cataluña, con un crecimiento del 14,4% y del 13,6%, respectivamente. En el extremo opuesto se situaron Ceuta y Melilla, con una caída del 36,9%, Extremadura, con el 24,8%, Canarias, con el 23,6% y Galicia, con un descenso del 22%.

    • #107061
      Anonymous
      Participant

      @katy wrote:

      Spain features of course, says you can buy properties at 60% off with 100% mortgages…….really 😮

      Says some “expert” who is just trying to flog something.

    • #107067
      Anonymous
      Participant

      “I wonder if the outcome would have been the same if it had been a Spanish developer “

      Did cross my mind. Katy, I and you must have been to same university of life !!!!!

    • #107068
      angie
      Blocked

      So right there Mark.

      The most gullible are salesmen and women (along with the elderly). We were being given the usual 3 day property inspection tour some years ago, when a Dutch or German man stopped us to try and flog both me and the salesgirl canteens of cutlery and extra special culinary knives at a fantastic discount but still over 100 euros.

      Guess who bought and then regretted it, yes the daft Ocean Estates salesgirl? 😆

      Then said that they (salespeople) are the worst for getting taken in with spiel. 😉

    • #107081
      katy
      Blocked

      Well there was/is a TV Producer who got carried away with the hype when he was working on “A place in the sun” programme. He still hasn’t got his 30% deposit back. Rough justice or what 😐

    • #107088
      angie
      Blocked

      Serves him right katy 😆 BBC and Channel 4 have a lot to answer for, I’m surprised no-one in the UK has tried suing them for mis-selling, hype etc they tried anything just to make programmes that eventually trapped unfortunates 🙄 Just as they still do with ‘Homes under the Hammer’ 😡

      I met a salewoman who worked for Ward and Partners chain of estate agents in the UK. Guess what, she bought 2 off-plan apartments in Bulgaria and was being asked to make her final stage payments on them (having paid 60% already) despite their values having fallen to around worthless before they were even completed 🙄 🙄 Conned by some agent like Ocean Estates or the Irishman 👿

      What a dilemma, do you just walk away and lose your money and the properties, or do you finish paying for something that was worth sod all and unfinished to spec.,then pay all the community charges etc?

    • #107090
      Anonymous
      Participant

      I am sure we have all watched, read, listened to something completely insignificant but for some particular reason has made a lasting impression that you still remember years later.

      I was watching one of those holiday buying programmes years ago and some couple were being helped to decide where to buy. In the end the guy bought in Bulgaria!!

      Why I remember it was because as the programme nears the end (all of the properties being shown/arguments discussed) it cuts to the husband of the couple talking on the phone giving his buying instructions. He says “Buy 5 units” !!!

      Ok it’s probably lost a lot in translation here, but his whole demeanour was one of trying to portray himself as a sophisticated investor, I remember thinking I would have used the world apartment, but I guess if you really are a sophisticated investor you use the word unit.

      I wonder how his units are doing

    • #107092
      angie
      Blocked

      jp1, his units are down the Bulgarian pan, how’s that for his big sophistication? 🙄

    • #107098
      DBMarcos99
      Participant

      Make sure you only take out a mortgage if you’re sure you can pay it back

      http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2011/dec/11/spain-mortgages-ecuador-battle?CMP=twt_fd

      Getting money back from immigrants can be difficult, especially if, as many homeless Ecuadoreans and a lot of British buyers on the “costas” have done, they just run home. However, Spanish banks have other ways to recover money. British law firms are, for example, being hired to go after those owing money on holiday homes. With Ecuadoreans, though, they simply package up the loans and sell them on to others.

      One eager buyer has been Banco Pichincha, an Ecuadorean bank that has set up in Spain. “The bank is asking people to put up properties in Ecuador as collateral,” Quinatoa explained. “That means if you can’t pay here, they can take your property there.”

    • #107114
      GarySFBCN
      Participant

      Make sure you only take out a mortgage if you’re sure you can pay it back

      This is a difficult situation. Government officials, bankers, real estate agents and others where ‘cheer leaders’ for what is now called the ‘real estate bubble’ and yet, people who actually risked something (their deposit) are asked to pay the price.

      Normally, I would agree that one does not borrow what once cannot pay. But then banks have a responsibility to lend money to people who can repay their loans, and not consider the inflated ‘future value’ of the home as part of the qualification process.

      Until the “pain” is justly doled-out to all guilty parties, I say nobody needs to repay anything. If that isn’t motivation to start putting bankers in jail, then nothing is.

    • #107116
      Anonymous
      Participant

      Reckless lending is as bad as reckless borrowing. The pain should be shared equally.

      The problem is the bankers weren’t lending their own money. They were lending other people’s money, from savings and pension plans, that sort of thing. So bankers don’t really have any skin in the game.

      My economics professor once explained, half-jokingly, that if a few reckless bankers were taken out to the square and shot, pour encourager les autres, the problem of reckless lending would disappear in a flash. 😉

    • #107119
      angie
      Blocked

      I’d love to do that Mark, could I say you told me I could shoot them? 😆 You could imagine someone one day who loses all their money and assets due to reckless lending/advice perhaps going a bit off the wall and doing something that drastic!

      I do agree that they would learn to behave though!

    • #107120
      GarySFBCN
      Participant

      My economics professor once explained, half-jokingly, that if a few reckless bankers were taken out to the square and shot, pour encourager les autres, the problem of reckless lending would disappear in a flash.

      While my work is mostly in technology, I have a keen sense for site selection, should you need some help with this.

      You could imagine someone one day who loses all their money and assets due to reckless lending/advice perhaps going a bit off the wall and doing something that drastic!

      I know your comment was in jest, but sadly, Mark is right. It is pension funds, etc. that are the real losers in this. It is one reason I support the Indignados and here Occupy Wall Street. People are being forced to sacrifice, but not those who actually caused the problems.

    • #107143
      Anonymous
      Participant

      I have always been astonished / disgusted by the number of Porsche Cayennes in Spain. It’s an obscene car on all fronts, and one that costs more than €60k to buy.

      This article sheds some light on the kind of people buying them in the boom. Construction managers and restaurant workers, not exactly the super-rich. Even when they were doing well in the boom they would have been spending a big chunk of their income on a tasteless, ostentatious, gas-guzzling car – talk about skewed priorities. Now, of course, they can’t afford to run them. Serves them right.

      http://www.businessweek.com/news/2011-12-13/spain-s-cayenne-crisis-spreads-to-bmw-as-sales-dry-up-cars.html

    • #107147
      Anonymous
      Participant

      I am always surprised at the number of new and expensive cars in Almeria, the equivalent of North Wales or Norfolk in the UK.

      BMW’s Audi’s and Mercedes everywhere! No industry except agriculture, and now pushing 40% unemployment for the region. The maths doesn’t stack up!

    • #107151
      GarySFBCN
      Participant

      I have always been astonished / disgusted by the number of Porsche Cayennes in Spain. It’s an obscene car on all fronts, and one that costs more than €60k to buy.

      This problem isn’t unique to Spain. Here in San Francisco, I too am astonished at those who have salaries less than 25% of mine and yet they somehow can ‘afford’ new BMWs, Audi’s and Porches. As I live in the urban core, I don’t use my car that often, only for road trips and camping. And it is a 16 year old Jetta 6-cylinder that I bought when it was new.

    • #107152
      katy
      Blocked

      There was an article a few days ago about the large amount of Ferraris visible in Italy. However bad the economy is there is always someone who benefits by it.

      I did recently read that the sales of new cars in Spain have hit the floor so maybe they are all a couple of years old.

    • #107161
      DBMarcos99
      Participant

      Another article on the ‘Cayenne crisis’ and how car manufacturers and parts suppliers are having to look to export markets.

      http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-12-12/-cayenne-crisis-hurts-bmw-as-much-as-porsche-as-spain-sales-dry-up-cars.html

      The bleak outlook for the Spanish market is pushing Seat and other local auto companies to expand into other markets. The VW unit will start sales in China next year and is broadening its product offering with the new Mii city car. It’s also updating its Ibiza and Leon compacts and the Toledo sedan.

      “Seat has to respond to the challenges of a complicated situation, chiefly in our home market,” Paul Sevin, the Spanish brand’s sales chief, said in an interview. “Seat’s overall performance makes us upbeat and definitely represents an improvement over 2010. Seat’s success does not depend on a single market.”

      Seat narrowed its operating loss to 101 million euros in the first nine months of 2011 from 218 million euros a year earlier. Revenue rose 6 percent to 3.96 billion euros.

    • #107163
      DBMarcos99
      Participant

      Weirdly, Porsche are actually predicting a rise in sales of 25% in the Spanish market this year. Although no doubt that is down to the very low base it reached by the previous fall of 34%

      http://www.eleconomista.es/ecomotor/motor/noticias/3561020/11/11/Porsche-esperar-aumentar-las-ventas-un-25-en-Espana-este-ano.html

    • #107193
      Anonymous
      Participant

      Piece from FT Alphaville on reposessions.

      http://ftalphaville.ft.com/blog/2011/12/15/802011/terminado-del-forebearance/

      Fitch already notes that some Spanish banks are unlikely to have the capital on their own to absorb defaulted loans much longer. But if they accelerate foreclosures, the price decline is huge. Fitch’s data set here strongly suggests this.

    • #107194
      logan
      Participant

      That quote goes on to suggest that the likely future outcome for repossessed property in Spain is the creation of a ‘bad bank’. Rajoy has already suggested he is in favour of that and is some way down the planning road.

      It is suggested the government will purchase all banks property portfolios at a 58% discount. The stumbling block is the cost estimated at €100bn. However it would likely be a once and for all solution to the crisis facing the banks and provide some much needed instant liquidity.

      Spain does not have that amount of money but could conceivably tap into the EFSF to raise the funds needed. That would need EU approval of course and in the present climate could well be successful.
      It is certainly a way around the treaty sanction and German objections on direct lending to Eurozone members by the ECB.

      So in theory at least any individual may now go to any bank property web site, choose a property you fancy and offer 58% less for a quick cash sale. Buy now while stocks last. 😀

      Actually this may not be as unrealistic as it sounds. For the government there will need to be a degree of compulsion to force the banks to sell at 58% less. So for the individual there is perhaps an opportunity here. On the basis 45-50% less is better than 58%.
      This window is unlikely to last long but never the less it may exist in theory. Perhaps that’s why my previous offers I made some time ago to banks now look a good deal, for them at least.

      Here is a decent example of the current move to more realistic prices: http://www.oportunidadescam.es/Apartamentos-en-Sucina-2-dormitorios/5893_1/vivienda_7045.html

    • #107196
      Anonymous
      Participant

      @logan wrote:

      Here is a decent example of the current move to more realistic prices: http://www.oportunidadescam.es/Apartamentos-en-Sucina-2-dormitorios/5893_1/vivienda_7045.html

      Realistic because it’s a 2 bed apartment 20km inland in the middle of a desert!!

      Realistically who would want to ever live there!!

      Guy in my company was trying to sell his new 3 bed villa with with pool in that location. He wanted over 400k Euros!!! Madness. Individuals who signed up to properties in locations like this have virtually lost all their money.

      With the glut of homes everywhere including front-line, it will be a long time until people consider buying 20km into a desert.

    • #107197
      logan
      Participant

      I tend to agree jp1 but the point of my link was to illustrate how banks are starting to set their prices with the looming ‘bad bank’ in mind. I think some strong price cutting will now begin in the run up to effectively what is the nationalization of all bank property portfolios. In my opinion it will be an effective measure to clear out the dead wood and start again.

    • #107289
      DBMarcos99
      Participant

      Property sales to foreigners have increased, according to this report

      http://www.theolivepress.es/spain-news/2011/12/24/spanish-properties-sold-to-foreigners-increase-by-24-7/

      PROPERTY sales to foreigners in Spain experienced an increase of 24.7% in the third quarter of 2011 compared to the same period last year, according to statistics from the Ministry of Public Transactions.

      The provinces with the greatest number of property purchases by foreigners were Alicante (2097), Malaga (951), Barcelona (607), Balearics (516) and Santa Cruz in Tenerife (476).

      The hunger for Spanish property looks set to continue with tax breaks and low interest rates on savings accounts among the factors encouraging buyers to hunt down bargains.

      I’m surprised that Alicante tops the list, but there again I’ve heard there are some real bargains down there.

    • #107290
      Anonymous
      Participant

      bargains in Malaga- Ill say just sold my apartment in Costa Del Sol for €90k having paid €150k 2 years ago

      Its a buyers market at present if you have cash you can clean up

    • #107296
      Anonymous
      Participant

      @DBMarcos99 wrote:

      Property sales to foreigners have increased, according to this report

      http://www.theolivepress.es/spain-news/2011/12/24/spanish-properties-sold-to-foreigners-increase-by-24-7/

      PROPERTY sales to foreigners in Spain experienced an increase of 24.7% in the third quarter of 2011 compared to the same period last year, according to statistics from the Ministry of Public Transactions.

      The provinces with the greatest number of property purchases by foreigners were Alicante (2097), Malaga (951), Barcelona (607), Balearics (516) and Santa Cruz in Tenerife (476).

      The hunger for Spanish property looks set to continue with tax breaks and low interest rates on savings accounts among the factors encouraging buyers to hunt down bargains.

      I’m surprised that Alicante tops the list, but there again I’ve heard there are some real bargains down there.

      Down south from Alicante have huge numbers of foreigners and is the “poor” mans choice since prices are very low. Foreigners “a majority” today except russians are looking for properties below 100k euros

    • #107346
      Anonymous
      Inactive

      Regarding the oversupply of housing, Cleveland Ohio, a city in the centre of the rust belt, has made an arrangement with their banks, one that may be of interest to those in other locations around the world. Together they have identified 16,000 houses that are bank owned and now close to derelict. As no one will purchase in areas where these houses are concentrated and those homeowners still here cannot sell and are walking away from their investments, the banks have agreed to let the city demolish these homes, at the bank’s expense and turn ownership of the vacant land over to the city. The city now has parcels of land that can be turned into parks etc, the remaining residents have a much improved neighbourhood, the banks get rid of property that was expensive to maintain, insure etc and there are now 16k less houses on the market.
      The scheme is being copied by other cities in the US. It does require that the the banks face the reality that some of their holdings are of no value in their current state.
      Mexberry.

    • #107347
      angie
      Blocked

      boothy, it’s still not a buyer’s market for Brits even if they have cash because of the poor exchange rate, no saving whatsoever 🙄 eg Spanish property prices fell say 40%, Sterling fell 40% too, so Brits can’t clean up in Spain ❗ Those that do buy in Spain could still find it a risky investment!

      Only good for those with Euros and/or Black money to launder if you can:wink:

    • #107351
      DBMarcos99
      Participant

      @angie wrote:

      boothy, it’s still not a buyer’s market for Brits even if they have cash because of the poor exchange rate, no saving whatsoever 🙄 eg Spanish property prices fell say 40%, Sterling fell 40% too, so Brits can’t clean up in Spain ❗ Those that do buy in Spain could still find it a risky investment!

      Only good for those with Euros and/or Black money to launder if you can:wink:

      I disagree, but only for London and the south-east, and for those looking to retire early in the sun. If properties have remained way over-valued (and they have in London) it means someone in East London (or Islington or Clapham) can sell their 2/3 bedroom house for say £400k and buy a 2/3 retirement place for < 100k in many parts of coastal Spain – I'm not talking Marbella of course, but who would choose to pay double just for the status value? Of course it won't be ideal for everyone, but for those who are familiar with Spain and can speak a little Spanish, it is definitely a buyer's market.
      Not as an “investment” either – I’m afraid the property bubble is bursting everywhere – but as a place to live.

    • #107354
      Anonymous
      Participant

      @Mexberry wrote:

      Regarding the oversupply of housing, Cleveland Ohio, a city in the centre of the rust belt, has made an arrangement with their banks, one that may be of interest to those in other locations around the world. Together they have identified 16,000 houses that are bank owned and now close to derelict. As no one will purchase in areas where these houses are concentrated and those homeowners still here cannot sell and are walking away from their investments, the banks have agreed to let the city demolish these homes, at the bank’s expense and turn ownership of the vacant land over to the city. The city now has parcels of land that can be turned into parks etc, the remaining residents have a much improved neighbourhood, the banks get rid of property that was expensive to maintain, insure etc and there are now 16k less houses on the market.
      The scheme is being copied by other cities in the US. It does require that the the banks face the reality that some of their holdings are of no value in their current state.
      Mexberry.

      That is a sensible outcome but the big difference governs who has responsibillity for bad lending. In europe the burden is solely on the person loaning the money and you can’t just hand the property back. In the US massive preassure is put upon the banks because customers can just return the property and get rid of their loans… at least that is how I have understood it. If the banks in that scenario doesn’t do anything about the oversupply then they stand to loose even more.

      One sad thing though is the obvious waste of resources with tearing down “good” houses though.

    • #107398
      Anonymous
      Participant

      From the WSJ:

      Spain’s Valencia Pays Deutsche Bank Loan Late .

      MADRID—In a new sign of a Spain’s deepening financial crisis, the regional government of Valencia on Wednesday said it was a week late in repaying a €123 million ($160 million) debt to Deutsche Bank AG.

      A spokeswoman for the Valencia government said the region had assistance from Spain’s central government in Madrid in finding a solution to its liquidity crunch, but said Madrid didn’t provide extra funds or a guarantee.

      The spokeswoman said the central government was “sensitive” to Valencia’s difficulties, but declined to elaborate. El Pais newspaper reported on Wednesday that Madrid had persuaded an unnamed bank to provide Valencia with a short-term loan so it could repay Deutsche Bank.

      The stop-gap solution for Valencia comes just days after the Spanish government said Spain’s total public-sector budget deficit likely came in at around 8% of gross domestic product in 2011, well above the country’s 6% target. Spain is suffering from the collapse of a tax-rich housing boom and prolonged economic slump.

      Last Friday, the government approved nearly €15 billion of spending cuts and tax increases it said will also benefit regional finances. Budget Minister Cristobal Montoro said Madrid was committed to supporting the regions.

      In highly decentralized Spain, regional governments control around a third of spending. But, faced with gaping budget gaps and towering debt loads, they have faced mounting difficulties to finance themselves.

      Valencia last month failed to raise the full amount of a new €1.8 billion bond issue, prompting ratings firm Moody’s Investors Service Inc. to downgrade it to junk status, while Standard & Poor’s downgraded it to the brink of junk.

      Valencia, a Mediterranean region with hundreds of kilometers of beach-front property, is the center of the collapse of the country’s housing industry. After years of high spending, its government is the most indebted of Spain’s 17 regions, with a 20% ratio of debt to regional gross domestic product—twice as high as a decade ago.

    • #107399
      Anonymous
      Participant

      This is a blog article by Conservative MEP Roger Helmer. Depressing, but worth reading:
      Spanish dream turns to nightmare

    • #107400
      angie
      Blocked

      DBM99, I’m glad you’re not an agent pushing Spanish property to Brits because what you say is completely incorrect. With Sterling/Euro exchange rates as they’ve been and still are, it would be crazy to suggest Brits can find bargains in Spain, there is no saving whatsoever compared to when the pound bought Euros at a rate of 1.64, even 1.50 even though many Spanish properties have fallen by 20-40% or so.

      This means that Brits buying at this exchange rate are paying approximately the same in sterling terms as they would have years ago when rates were better.

      I’ve often said that the only way it makes any sense for Brits is if they are not bothered by rates and wish to buy for lifestyle only and for the long term, as well as prepared to take losses on paper or should they decide to re-sell. London and home counties has constantly bucked the falling property trend in the UK and will probably continue to do so as Euro buyers, the Chinese and Russians etc look for a safe haven, this enables Londoners to then move out pushing prices up in home counties. That said, even London etc is overpriced but market forces etc! Yesterday in Wimbledon, all the agents had banks of spiky haired sales guys on phones just as Ocean Estates and other insiduous agents had during the boom in Spain. Foxtons are the British Ocean Estates and been rapped for mis-selling several times.

      You also don’t mention what value for Brits who buy now, should the Euro collapse!!

      The only financial logic for Brits is for those with Spanish property to try and sell so as to convert back to Sterling! 🙄

    • #107402
      DBMarcos99
      Participant

      @angie wrote:

      DBM99, I’m glad you’re not an agent pushing Spanish property to Brits because what you say is completely incorrect. With Sterling/Euro exchange rates as they’ve been and still are, it would be crazy to suggest Brits can find bargains in Spain, there is no saving whatsoever compared to when the pound bought Euros at a rate of 1.64, even 1.50 even though many Spanish properties have fallen by 20-40% or so.

      This means that Brits buying at this exchange rate are paying approximately the same in sterling terms as they would have years ago when rates were better.

      I’ve often said that the only way it makes any sense for Brits is if they are not bothered by rates and wish to buy for lifestyle only and for the long term, as well as prepared to take losses on paper or should they decide to re-sell. London and home counties has constantly bucked the falling property trend in the UK and will probably continue to do so as Euro buyers, the Chinese and Russians etc look for a safe haven, this enables Londoners to then move out pushing prices up in home counties. That said, even London etc is overpriced but market forces etc! Yesterday in Wimbledon, all the agents had banks of spiky haired sales guys on phones just as Ocean Estates and other insiduous agents had during the boom in Spain. Foxtons are the British Ocean Estates and been rapped for mis-selling several times.

      You also don’t mention what value for Brits who buy now, should the Euro collapse!!

      The only financial logic for Brits is for those with Spanish property to try and sell so as to convert back to Sterling! 🙄

      You keep quoting the exchange rate as of 5 years ago, as if that were the “true value”. Now it’s true that we may see sterling back up there, but it’s always a changing thing, and besides everyone I know who predicts currency levels a year ahead (or more) invariably gets it wrong.
      All I’m saying is that anyone coming from the south-east of England will find property prices currently to be a bargain in much of Spain, but only if they are retiring or can work independently.
      Like I keep saying. a 2 or 3 bedroom house in Hackney can cost 350k or 400k. Get a 3 bedroom property in Valencia or Alicante for less than £80k and it’s surely a bargain if you are retiring? Use the surplus as a pension/cushion whatever. You can even buy cheaply in the north of England and rent out if you want to stay in UK property.
      I agree that you shouldn’t be buying to make money – I leave that to the property speculators. And I’m fairly sure that with rising unenployment and the job losses in the City, London is due a big correction.

    • #107403
      angie
      Blocked

      The exchange rate 5 years ago is what it was, and today’s rate is what it is, it still doesn’t alter the fact that British buyers are still paying approx the same in Sterling terms now as they were then. Spanish property is not a bargain for Brits. It was only a mis-sold bargain then if it could be flipped quickly or on a quality development. Then of course there are the exhorbitant completion costs, the many vagueries of buying in Spain such as is it legal, mis-selling, poor build quality, masses of look-a-like properties that won’t increase in value, legal redress taking 5 years or more etc etc

      I see the point about buying to retire etc but that doesn’t make it sound in financial terms, only for lifestyle longterm, with the same money Brits could take many holidays in Spain without the hassles, nor worries about falling property prices. Even if bought for lifestyle and not investment, should the Euro collapse or weaken, then the property value will also fall yet again in Sterling terms. Not good business IMO unless you want to throw good money after bad.

      There are still safer property purchases for Brits to be had in the UK, even rentals in London, other Cities and University towns etc and income from these can fun holidays in the sun!

      One other point, there is a real shortage of properties in the UK, but a huge surplus in Spain, now where would the sensible money go? Which property market is more stable?:wink:

      Read the article Mark posted, it’s common sense 🙄

    • #107404
      Anonymous
      Participant

      @angie wrote:

      I see the point about buying to retire etc but that doesn’t make it sound in financial terms, only for lifestyle longterm, with the same money Brits could take many holidays in Spain without the hassles, nor worries about falling property prices. Even if bought for lifestyle and not investment, should the Euro collapse or weaken, then the property value will also fall yet again in Sterling terms. Not good business IMO unless you want to throw good money after bad.

      I’ve received much sound advice here, but with this I don’t agree. If you’re retiring then you’re retiring. Taking holidays is one hell of a hassle – pets in kennels, airports, taxis, trains etc. If it’s a retirement home then do you really care if your children don’t reap great rewards when they sell it after you die?

      Also you seem to forget the attrocious mismanagement of the UK’s economy during the latter years of the recent Blair / Brown administration and the 1979 administration under Wilson / Callaghan when they had to get bailouts from the IMF.

      If you want to save money move to the Isle of Man – low income tax, low rates, no capital gains or inheritance tax. Die rich and (trust me) wet, cold and miserable.

    • #107405
      kgpoc
      Participant

      Simon Brown – a wonderful fresh perspective!

      Happy New Year and Happy Reyes you miserable lot :)! (I do agree with you all, but I still have the goodwill feel of Christmas)

    • #107406
      katy
      Blocked

      Hmmm. All this talk of 80,000 euro properties…..bet you haven’t actually seen one except on the web, I have 😆 There are sooo many dumps around Alicante area you would think you were back in Hackney 😆 You would be warmer too indoors in winter. I find it strange that some posters defend properties and parts of Spain they have probably never visited.

      Anyway, just been reading spanish news which states that at the World Economic Forum Spain has been ranked 32 (spanish paper says 39, perhaps they can’t read :mrgreen: ) UK comes at at 10, Switzerland is numero uno.

      http://www3.weforum.org/docs/WEF_GCR_CompetitivenessIndexRanking_2011-12.pdf

    • #107408
      logan
      Participant

      @Simon Brown wrote:

      I’ve received much sound advice here, but with this I don’t agree. If you’re retiring then you’re retiring. Taking holidays is one hell of a hassle – pets in kennels, airports, taxis, trains etc. If it’s a retirement home then do you really care if your children don’t reap great rewards when they sell it after you die?

      You are assuming that:-
      (a) you will spend the rest of your life in Spain. Could be 40 years.
      (b) your healthcare in Spain will remain acceptable. Social care by the state does not exist.
      (c) your taxation situation will remain acceptable. Spanish taxes are high for decent incomes and increasing.
      (d) your income value will remain constant.
      If you invest substantially in Spanish property now and retire to Spain you had better make very sure it’s going to be the lifestyle you want. Otherwise you will have difficulty selling, recovering the capital investment and moving anywhere else.
      Remember also for your families sake, Spanish inheritance tax is high and applies to your surviving spouse. Do you really want to hand a substantial amount of your capital to the Hacienda on death?
      Rent for at least a year, look around give the lifestyle a try, investigate your financial position with professional advice then you will likely not end up disillusioned.

    • #107409
      DBMarcos99
      Participant

      @katy wrote:

      Hmmm. All this talk of 80,000 euro properties…..bet you haven’t actually seen one except on the web, I have 😆 There are sooo many dumps around Alicante area you would think you were back in Hackney 😆 You would be warmer too indoors in winter. I find it strange that some posters defend properties and parts of Spain they have probably never visited.

      Here we go again. The poster who claims “it’s cold most of the time in Valencia..” trying to tell us she’s an expert on all of Spain, and the rest of us know nothing… Please keep it up, you’re making us laugh! :mrgreen:
      I know in any city (or even town and village) you will get less desirable areas, but I think I’ll stick to taking advice from people who’ve lived there or know those areas well, not someone who’s boasted of buying/selling several properties around Marbella and thus may have a vested interest in talking other areas down. It’s quite obvious why you attack new posters on this board – accuse them of being agents or trying to plug websites – – it’s because you have vested interests and assume everyone else is on the same level. It may be hard for you to understand, but some of us know Spain, like the place and its people despite the warts and would like to retire there, maybe even move there before then. With luck you will stay in England (or at least never venture out of your Marbella domain) because you seem a very vindinctive sort – I’d hate to have to live close to the likes of you.

    • #107410
      katy
      Blocked

      I have spanish relatives from Madrid and other parts of Spain. I believe you only know Madrid? Obviously you don’t know much about Spain or you wouldn’t be writing about 80,000 priced properties in Alicante. There are cheap properties in some areas. You may find the street is full of gitanos and druggies better than Brits though for some like you I suppose.

      Why do you always pick up on my posts and not respond to others who are saying the same, and more. as I am saying…I think I know 😉 I doubt you will ever have the money to live close to me in any country….I don’t do cheap, location etc 😆

    • #107411
      katy
      Blocked

      Good points Logan. No-one knows what will happen in the future and the odds aren’t good. News today that spanish social security has a bigger defecit than predicted. The health service could breakdown. Already there are posts on forums of shortages in hospitals, particularly in Valencia. Of course, the same could happen in the UK. but better the devil you know and all that 😀 At least the UK has an investigative critical press.

    • #107412
      DBMarcos99
      Participant

      @katy wrote:

      Why do you always pick up on my posts and not respond to others who are saying the same, and more. as I am saying…I think I know 😉 I doubt you will ever have the money to live close to me in any country….I don’t do cheap, location etc 😆

      You’re the only one here who accused me (totally falsely) of being an agent when I started posting here a few weeks back.
      You’re the only one here who accused the new poster this week of merely being here to push his website.
      If others make incorrect and totally off-beam personal accusations I will criticise them too.

      But please keep up the personal untruths about others. It only relects back on you.

    • #107415
      angie
      Blocked

      Simon Brown you didn’t digest properly what I said. I said the only sound sense in buying in Spain was for lifestyle and longterm because whatever you think, it’s still not a sound financial decision for Brits to buy at the current exchange rate. You’ve said you have Euros so there’s no problem there for you, but for Brits with only Sterling it’s not sensible and, then I’ve said before if the Euro collapses so will Spanish property prices against other currencies.

      Holiday homes are also a hassle too, you’ve often no idea of security issues whilst away, there’s community charges, falling property prices, and that’s without all the buying costs, illegal builds in Spain, dodgy agents and lawyers, long legal battles, barking dogs in the Campo and lots more.

      You’re now introducing previous labour Gov’t, what’s that got to do with buying in Spain and you’re wrong suggesting I seem to forget it, what do you know about what I remember or forget? Who apart from you is talking inheritance. and what on earth are you on by introducing the Isle of Man to the topic, and why would I want to trust you as you invite me to, I wouldn’t want to live there, I haven’t even mentioned saving tax I prefer to pay my dues. I don’t know why you’re bringing in other non topic issues!!

      Have you come on here with another agenda or something, I prefer to give sound advice to Brits who’ve been scammed in Spain and abroad, so check the years I’ve contributed on here, all started with dodgy agents called Ocean Estates now gone from Spain but leaving many Brits in misery!!

    • #107416
      Anonymous
      Participant

      @katy wrote:

      t 80,000 priced properties in Alicante. There are cheap properties in some areas. You may find the street is full of gitanos and druggies better than Brits though for some like you I suppose.

      Do you think that a 80,000 Euros property is a cheap one in current conditions in Spain? Wow, 80K might be peanut money… Not so for 99% of the population.

      20K is a cheap property in bad areas of Alicante region and even that would not make much sense to buy as one can rent those propertuies at less than 150 Euros per month.

      In my opinion some/most apartments or houses in Spain are worthless now. They simply built and reconditioned too many and it is going to take a long time to absorb.

      Of course there are prime properties which would still sell well but 99% of the foreigners interested in buying abroad
      do not have the money for prime properties.

    • #107418
      DBMarcos99
      Participant

      then I’ve said before if the Euro collapses so will Spanish property prices against other currencies.

      Actually, if Spain leaves the Euro and reverts to its own currency, I believe Spanish property prices on the coasts (in the local currency) will actually rise a little. Of course if you are converting from other currencies this will be outweighed by however much the Spanish currency depreciates – this is what will create more demand. But I fear (as someone looking from the buying angle) that it may set off another price increase scenario. For all those who think it can’t happen again – Spain went through economic hard times in the early 90s with tourism hit hard, high unemployment etc. and then had a boom from approx 1998-2006. Just look at tourism numbers in 2011 – far from falling they’ve gone up, and expected to continue increasing in 2012 even with current economic uncertainty. As soon as western economies start to grow again, people will be looking for that Mediterranean retirement/holiday home again. Regardless of how many times you will try and convince us it’s a bad idea (I heard the same from Spain-knockers in the 80s and in the 90s and I hear the same things today – end of the day it’s all subjective – neither of us will change each others’ minds as we base our opinions on our own experiences, not on someone else’s).

      On the other hand, if the Euro spectacularly implodes (I don’t see this happening, but it is a possibilty) then don’t assume the UK will remained unscathed. Our economy will collapse at the same time. Our major banks like RBS and Lloyds TSB (remember we’ve already had to bail out UK banks to the tune of 100s of billions) are too exposed.

    • #107419
      logan
      Participant

      @DBMarcos99 wrote:

      Regardless of how many times you will try and convince us it’s a bad idea (I heard the same from Spain-knockers in the 80s and in the 90s and I hear the same things today – end of the day it’s all subjective – neither of us will change each others’ minds as we base our opinions on our own experiences, not on someone else’s).

      I think you misunderstand the motives of posters on here. Speaking for myself I have no wish to convince anyone of my opinions and ideas. If you have an interest in a market sector such as Spanish property the exchange of opinions and ideas is often beneficial and a source of knowledge.
      Attempting to convince others of any particular right or wrong is something very different, foolhardy and a waste of time. Just as suggestions of being ‘Spain-knockers’ indicates to me how you completely miss the point.

    • #107420
      katy
      Blocked

      @angie wrote:

      Simon Brown you didn’t digest properly what I said. I said the only sound sense in buying in Spain was for lifestyle and longterm because whatever you think, it’s still not a sound financial decision for Brits to buy at the current exchange rate. You’ve said you have Euros so there’s no problem there for you, but for Brits with only Sterling it’s not sensible and, then I’ve said before if the Euro collapses so will Spanish property prices against other currencies.

      Holiday homes are also a hassle too, you’ve often no idea of security issues whilst away, there’s community charges, falling property prices, and that’s without all the buying costs, illegal builds in Spain, dodgy agents and lawyers, long legal battles, barking dogs in the Campo and lots more.

      You’re now introducing previous labour Gov’t, what’s that got to do with buying in Spain and you’re wrong suggesting I seem to forget it, what do you know about what I remember or forget? Who apart from you is talking inheritance. and what on earth are you on by introducing the Isle of Man to the topic, and why would I want to trust you as you invite me to, I wouldn’t want to live there, I haven’t even mentioned saving tax I prefer to pay my dues. I don’t know why you’re bringing in other non topic issues!!

      Have you come on here with another agenda or something, I prefer to give sound advice to Brits who’ve been scammed in Spain and abroad, so check the years I’ve contributed on here, all started with dodgy agents called Ocean Estates now gone from Spain but leaving many Brits in misery!!

      Yes Angie I think those of us who have been around a while know all about agendas on here 😉 Some post they are looking to buy but they don’t seem interested in the nitty gritty of buying in Spain. Main purpose is to defend Spain at all cost and rubbish the UK…I wonder why 😉

      George Soros said this yesterday and I think it applies equally to purchasing in Spain right now.

      Markets are “far from equilibrium and extremely difficult to predict using the yardsticks or methods that were used in the past,” Soros said, adding investors “have to play it safe” and that “unless you can anticipate events correctly, it’s better to do nothing than to keep on losing money.”

      If any Brit had bought a property in Spain last month (will keep with the 80,000 for harmony 🙄 ) then with oncosts the 90,000 app would have been around £79,000. If they did the same purchase today it would have cost £74,000. If we are looking at properties in the 500,000 range then the difference would probably buy you a new BMW…or at least a VW Golf 🙂

    • #107421
      DBMarcos99
      Participant

      @logan wrote:

      @DBMarcos99 wrote:

      Regardless of how many times you will try and convince us it’s a bad idea (I heard the same from Spain-knockers in the 80s and in the 90s and I hear the same things today – end of the day it’s all subjective – neither of us will change each others’ minds as we base our opinions on our own experiences, not on someone else’s).

      I think you misunderstand the motives of posters on here. Speaking for myself I have no wish to convince anyone of my opinions and ideas. If you have an interest in a market sector such as Spanish property the exchange of opinions and ideas is often beneficial and a source of knowledge.
      Attempting to convince others of any particular right or wrong is something very different, foolhardy and a waste of time. Just as suggestions of being ‘Spain-knockers’ indicates to me how you completely miss the point.

      I think you’ve also missed my point, but I acknowledge I may have misrepresented it. I’m quite interested in people’s opinions on say price movements, or the Euro, or Spain’s possible future in or out of the Euro. I think there are as many opinions as posters sometimes, and it helps to get a picture – whether or not it’s a true picture of the future, only time will tell…
      My issue is with a certain poster or two, who seem determined to convince me that I wouldn’t enjoy life in Spain, or retirement there. Sorry, but I have lived, and worked in Spain, and know personally people both on the Med coast and on the north coast, as well as in the capital. The “knockers” as I call them. invariably resort to distortions of what I know and have experienced. They tell me “it’s always cold in Valencia”, “the Spanish hate me”, “it’s always more expensive in Spain than in the UK” – all things that I’ve found to be the opposite. Very hard to take their other stuff seriously when they do this. I don’t mind being told about high internet costs, or the implications of health issues etc as things like this have to be taken into consideration. What does annoy, are those individual posters with an agenda – you just know you have an ulterior agenda, because as soon as they spot a new poster on a talkboard like this, who looks like they are interested in Spain, they resort to accusations (look – he must be an agent, look he’s only here to peddle his website etc etc). I’m not going to shift their hatred of Spain one iota – I’m just confused why they attempt to do the opposite. Don’t they realise their actions are counter-productive.
      Just to clarify – I’m not here to make money on a property purchase – indeed the lower prices are better from a selfish point of view, and if I buy the intention will be to settle there for the rest of my life. Surely buying at a low point is far better than buying at a high point? The drawback is of course if Spanish society breaks down and we see outbreaks of crime, riots etc as we had in London last summer. That’s the one thing that I fear, although I believe (and hope) it won’t happen.

    • #107422
      DBMarcos99
      Participant

      Here’s a web page provided by the newspaper El Mundo, that gives average price per square metre by province

      http://www.elmundo.es/suvivienda/sv/tasaciones/

      For example the av cost in Sagunto (an old Roman town inland from Valencia) 1,384 ; Benidorm 2.341 ; Madrid Alcobendas 2.808 per square metre.

      Do the figures look realistic? Or are they lagging somewhat?

    • #107423
      Anonymous
      Participant

      @DBMarcos99 wrote:

      Here’s a web page provided by the newspaper El Mundo, that gives average price per square metre by province

      http://www.elmundo.es/suvivienda/sv/tasaciones/

      For example the av cost in Sagunto (an old Roman town inland from Valencia) 1,384 ; Benidorm 2.341 ; Madrid Alcobendas 2.808 per square metre.

      Do the figures look realistic? Or are they lagging somewhat?

      They are lagging a little in and around Alicante and down south. What is problematic though is that where I live in Sweden there are basicly no bad streets in a certain area but in Spain prices can vary a lot when you pick another property just 100-200m from the first one you looked at. Most of the time you just have to be on the look out for public housing projects or whatever they are called and busstations because there is where most of crap happens. They can literally be anywhere.

      Bigger cities in Spain have larger variations than smaller towns from what I have seen. The smaller the place the more the prices lag also especially in places where they have built a lot of newly builts.

    • #107424
      katy
      Blocked

      @DBMarcos99 wrote:

      @logan wrote:

      @DBMarcos99 wrote:

      Regardless of how many times you will try and convince us it’s a bad idea (I heard the same from Spain-knockers in the 80s and in the 90s and I hear the same things today – end of the day it’s all subjective – neither of us will change each others’ minds as we base our opinions on our own experiences, not on someone else’s).

      I think you misunderstand the motives of posters on here. Speaking for myself I have no wish to convince anyone of my opinions and ideas. If you have an interest in a market sector such as Spanish property the exchange of opinions and ideas is often beneficial and a source of knowledge.
      Attempting to convince others of any particular right or wrong is something very different, foolhardy and a waste of time. Just as suggestions of being ‘Spain-knockers’ indicates to me how you completely miss the point.

      I think you’ve also missed my point, but I acknowledge I may have misrepresented it. I’m quite interested in people’s opinions on say price movements, or the Euro, or Spain’s possible future in or out of the Euro. I think there are as many opinions as posters sometimes, and it helps to get a picture – whether or not it’s a true picture of the future, only time will tell…
      My issue is with a certain poster or two, who seem determined to convince me that I wouldn’t enjoy life in Spain, or retirement there. Sorry, but I have lived, and worked in Spain, and know personally people both on the Med coast and on the north coast, as well as in the capital. The “knockers” as I call them. invariably resort to distortions of what I know and have experienced. They tell me “it’s always cold in Valencia”, “the Spanish hate me”, “it’s always more expensive in Spain than in the UK” – all things that I’ve found to be the opposite. Very hard to take their other stuff seriously when they do this. I don’t mind being told about high internet costs, or the implications of health issues etc as things like this have to be taken into consideration. What does annoy, are those individual posters with an agenda – you just know you have an ulterior agenda, because as soon as they spot a new poster on a talkboard like this, who looks like they are interested in Spain, they resort to accusations (look – he must be an agent, look he’s only here to peddle his website etc etc). I’m not going to shift their hatred of Spain one iota – I’m just confused why they attempt to do the opposite. Don’t they realise their actions are counter-productive.
      Just to clarify – I’m not here to make money on a property purchase – indeed the lower prices are better from a selfish point of view, and if I buy the intention will be to settle there for the rest of my life. Surely buying at a low point is far better than buying at a high point? The drawback is of course if Spanish society breaks down and we see outbreaks of crime, riots etc as we had in London last summer. That’s the one thing that I fear, although I believe (and hope) it won’t happen.

      Yes I know all about agendas. Some posters even follow me from another forum and continue to vent their spite and envy 😉 :mrgreen:

      I don’t think it is unreasonable to be suspicious about a first time poster who puts a link on to their own website. I have never put on a link to our family business…don’t understand why anyone would bother! As for your link to a lightweight twittering spanish property sales agent, I did think it may be you as I didn’t think anyone would think it special enough to link.until I sussed out who you really were. 😆

    • #102738
      DBMarcos99
      Participant

      @katy wrote:

      Yes I know all about agendas. Some posters even follow me from another forum and continue to vent their spite and envy 😉 :mrgreen:

      You have some imagination. First I’m an agent, then I’m just following you from another forum just out of spite! Make your mind up!

      Better still, accept that others don’t share your negative views and they’re not necessarily here as an agent, or to peddle their website, even if they are interested in buying in Spain at some point. Shame we don’t seem to have an ignore facility here.

    • #99627
      DBMarcos99
      Participant

      @Ardun wrote:

      @DBMarcos99 wrote:

      Here’s a web page provided by the newspaper El Mundo, that gives average price per square metre by province

      http://www.elmundo.es/suvivienda/sv/tasaciones/

      For example the av cost in Sagunto (an old Roman town inland from Valencia) 1,384 ; Benidorm 2.341 ; Madrid Alcobendas 2.808 per square metre.

      Do the figures look realistic? Or are they lagging somewhat?

      They are lagging a little in and around Alicante and down south. What is problematic though is that where I live in Sweden there are basicly no bad streets in a certain area but in Spain prices can vary a lot when you pick another property just 100-200m from the first one you looked at. Most of the time you just have to be on the look out for public housing projects or whatever they are called and busstations because there is where most of crap happens. They can literally be anywhere.

      Bigger cities in Spain have larger variations than smaller towns from what I have seen.

      That’s a very interesting point. It sounds similar to London, where you can find private houses on one side of a street, and housing association estates (not always in bad condition) on the other side.
      Yes, I think you’re right concerning bus stations. Train stations in cities also used to be very bad (IIRC), and often bordered on red light zones, but the impression I get is all the new train investments have spruced many places up. Can only be a matter of time though…

    • #99785
      DBMarcos99
      Participant

      @Ardun wrote:

      @DBMarcos99 wrote:

      Here’s a web page provided by the newspaper El Mundo, that gives average price per square metre by province

      http://www.elmundo.es/suvivienda/sv/tasaciones/

      For example the av cost in Sagunto (an old Roman town inland from Valencia) 1,384 ; Benidorm 2.341 ; Madrid Alcobendas 2.808 per square metre.

      Do the figures look realistic? Or are they lagging somewhat?

      They are lagging a little in and around Alicante and down south. What is problematic though is that where I live in Sweden there are basicly no bad streets in a certain area but in Spain prices can vary a lot when you pick another property just 100-200m from the first one you looked at. Most of the time you just have to be on the look out for public housing projects or whatever they are called and busstations because there is where most of crap happens. They can literally be anywhere.

      Bigger cities in Spain have larger variations than smaller towns from what I have seen.

      That’s a very interesting point. It sounds similar to London, where you can find private houses on one side of a street, and housing association estates (not always in bad condition) on the other side.
      Yes, I think you’re right concerning bus stations. Train stations in cities also used to be very bad (IIRC), and often bordered on red light zones, but the impression I get is all the new train investments have spruced many places up. Can only be a matter of time though…

    • #101208
      angie
      Blocked

      Yes katy you are right there, why would someone new to the forum sign off with a link to his website? A bit weird IMO 🙄

      Methinks SB Ringer and already sussed 😆 Hidden Agenda!!! Maybe I’ll do some research on this, you know, octopus tentacles 8)

      He’s lived everywhere now wants to try Spain despite it’s woes and commonsense here, but also knows the tax implications of the I.O.M. and warn about it’s weather as if I asked to know. Anyone with financial sense would stay in Switzerland and holiday in the sun. No-one to leave property to so why not buy in a country where property rises and leave it to charity, such a waste 😕

    • #101209
      katy
      Blocked

      BB Marcos Just stop following me around it’s not that difficult is it…after all there are plenty of posters saying the same as I 😈

    • #107426
      DBMarcos99
      Participant

      @katy wrote:

      BB Marcos Just stop following me around it’s not that difficult is it…after all there are plenty of posters saying the same as I 😈

      So far as I know, no other poster greeted me to this forum with “You’re obviously an agent”, and then followed that by greeting another newbie with “you’re only here to peddle your website”.
      Since then you’ve continued your personal criticisms and insinuations – you seem mentally inacapable of accepting the fact that some of us may want to retire in Spain. I’m sure you’re going to insist that it’s a bad idea – but it’s not your decision. Let it rest hey? I don’t dictate to you where you should live.

    • #107427
      katy
      Blocked

      @angie wrote:

      Yes katy you are right there, why would someone new to the forum sign off with a link to his website? A bit weird IMO 🙄

      Methinks SB Ringer and already sussed 😆 Hidden Agenda!!! Maybe I’ll do some research on this, you know, octopus tentacles 8)

      He’s lived everywhere now wants to try Spain despite it’s woes and commonsense here, but also knows the tax implications of the I.O.M. and warn about it’s weather as if I asked to know. Anyone with financial sense would stay in Switzerland and holiday in the sun. No-one to leave property to so why not buy in a country where property rises and leave it to charity, such a waste 😕

      We lived in Geneva for 2 years (job) A little village on the lake called Versoix. Loved it 😀 I thought they traded in Swiss francs not euro :mrgreen:

      BTW I have never said don’t live in Spain, just don’t buy right now…rent.

    • #107428
      Anonymous
      Participant

      Katy and angie I know you guys probably have everyones best interest at heart and I myself can laugh about certain individuals where it’s very obvious that they have a “hidden” agenda. The theme park in Murcia is one great example of that. =)

      DBMarcos99 you have to understand that for many years people like angie and Katy where being questioned all the time when they tried to sound the alarm bells.

      I myself is looking to buy but is in no hurry and our swedish crowna have strengthened against the euro. For people from other countries not using the pound I don’t think it would be catastrophic to buy at the moment but I think prices will come down a little more and the euro will be loosing more in value because of the eurozones problems when they start pumping out more money.

      Renting to start with is great to get a feel for the area and is the best way to go but I myself doesn’t have that personality type that goes with “safety”

      Another thing that I don’t think one should underestimate is that historically one always do great when one enters the market when no one else wants to do it as long as one have a longer time span in mind. One should avoid getting into stuff when even the cabdriver gives you advice on for example stocks. A sure sign that the market will eventually collapse. =)

    • #107429
      katy
      Blocked

      Ardun, what is the view in Sweden re. the eurozone?

      From the Telegraph today

      12.22 Mats Persson, Director of think-tank Open Europe poses a timely question in a Telegraph blog:

      Will the euro crack in 2012?

      His answer? Probably no – though he adds that there’s good, bad, and quite a bit of ugly to be had this year. Here’s a bit of the ugly to whet your appetites pre-lunch:

      Though the risk is still small, there’s a possible perfect ‘storm scenario’ for the euro in 2012:

      • Widespread downgrades, including of the eurozone’s remaining Triple A countries, by credit rating agencies. Serious questions would be raised over the viability of the eurozone’s bailout funds as they rely on an ever thinner list of Triple A eurozone states, leaving the euro with little more than a paper tiger as a backstop.

      • Spanish banks could hit the iceberg as households fail to pay their mortgages and the level of non-performing loans pile up. If it gets bad enough, the Spanish government wouldn’t afford to recapitalise these banks on its own and must seek a potentially huge bailout from the EU/IMF.

      • In addition to those in Spain, one or more banks in Italy or France could sink due to large exposure to weaker euro states – following a hard Greek default for example. As in Spain, there are doubts as to whether these governments could afford to bail out their banks without outside help

    • #107430
      katy
      Blocked

      And here is a press report from Spain…Worse construction figures since 1960!

      http://www.diariosur.es/v/20120106/malaga/construccion-toca-fondo-registra-20120106.html

    • #107431
      Anonymous
      Participant

      @angie wrote:

      Yes katy you are right there, why would someone new to the forum sign off with a link to his website? A bit weird IMO 🙄

      Methinks SB Ringer and already sussed 😆 Hidden Agenda!!! Maybe I’ll do some research on this, you know, octopus tentacles 8)

      He’s lived everywhere now wants to try Spain despite it’s woes and commonsense here, but also knows the tax implications of the I.O.M. and warn about it’s weather as if I asked to know. Anyone with financial sense would stay in Switzerland and holiday in the sun. No-one to leave property to so why not buy in a country where property rises and leave it to charity, such a waste 😕

      1) I was brought up on the Isle of Man
      2) You have no idea how expensive and restricting Switzerland can be, but it is beautiful
      3) And my website info did help as I’ve had PM’s from people who recognise me
      4) BTW – not married. Can you cook, wash bottles & walk the dogs when I’m away? If so PM please…

    • #107433
      angie
      Blocked

      I understand you were brought up on IOM now but why push it as a place to live to us on here if it’s so miserable in Winter etc and ‘believe me you said you knew what it’s like’ when we were’nt asking.

      Also, how do you know what I know or don’t know again, this time about Switzerland, I’m not interested really! You seem to want to justify your actions, posts and raison d’etre!

      I’m well travelled myself, as other long term posters here seem to be also, lived in different countries and my knowledge of issues abroad is fairly comprehensive.

      Are you crazy now asking me to pm you about your personal wishes, do your own dirty washing etc ?:( Do you understand diplomacy or are you a deliberate wind-up?

      If you want to live in Spain and have Euros or Swiss Francs to invest well that’s your decision, and if you’d asked for genuine advice and knowledge on the Costa scams many of us have experience of we’d have given it to you.

      I’d like to think that by now you’ve read the post from Mark on Spain’s woes and followed the link, and learnt a thing or two.

    • #107459
      Anonymous
      Participant

      @katy wrote:

      Ardun, what is the view in Sweden re. the eurozone?

      From the Telegraph today

      12.22 Mats Persson, Director of think-tank Open Europe poses a timely question in a Telegraph blog:

      Will the euro crack in 2012?

      His answer? Probably no – though he adds that there’s good, bad, and quite a bit of ugly to be had this year. Here’s a bit of the ugly to whet your appetites pre-lunch:

      Though the risk is still small, there’s a possible perfect ‘storm scenario’ for the euro in 2012:

      • Widespread downgrades, including of the eurozone’s remaining Triple A countries, by credit rating agencies. Serious questions would be raised over the viability of the eurozone’s bailout funds as they rely on an ever thinner list of Triple A eurozone states, leaving the euro with little more than a paper tiger as a backstop.

      • Spanish banks could hit the iceberg as households fail to pay their mortgages and the level of non-performing loans pile up. If it gets bad enough, the Spanish government wouldn’t afford to recapitalise these banks on its own and must seek a potentially huge bailout from the EU/IMF.

      • In addition to those in Spain, one or more banks in Italy or France could sink due to large exposure to weaker euro states – following a hard Greek default for example. As in Spain, there are doubts as to whether these governments could afford to bail out their banks without outside help

      There is a large divide between the people and the “corpocrats”. Most of the people here have no real insight about it except they think people in the south are lazy and it just happens that they now are on the anti-euro bandwagon. Most of them think it’s a question about switching out our coins and that’s about it. I have no respect for this mob except that they shouldn’t be swindled like they are now. A minority “5%?” knows that it’s hopeless to continue supporting the euro because of it’s inherent problems with having one currency within a really divided economy but the problem is much larger than that. Fractional banking can’t work in the long run without devastating crashes. The problems with the eurozone is that it’s makes it very hard to get out ot these boom and busts.

      The journalists are mostly worse off information wise than the mob, just reharping what they have been told by their owners to say. Without the internet we would all be doomed. The politicians think they can continue with the old system of banking because they don’t know how to fix it and they think that throwing good money after bad will fix it. They are mostly concerned with getting reelected and not making tough decisions.

      We must let weak banks fail otherwise it sends the wrong signals to the market. I could go on forever but I’m not a great teacher. I support most of Ron Pauls “american libertarian that believes in austrian economics”. Fractional banking “it’s a pyramid scheme” that and big goverment is the problem in this mess. I’m not a religious person but I truely believe in this man and his teachings.

      I present to you the man who predicted all of the rescent bubbles 5-10 years in advance and no one listened. A man hated by most big subsidized corporations and big politicians. For 30 years he was belittled and people laughed at him but no more. A man known by lobbyist as Dr. No. A man everyone wants as their grandpa… I present to you Dr. Ron Paul the 45th president of the USA.

      http://www.youtube.com/watch?annotation_id=annotation_147100&feature=iv&src_vid=qWxaGRZ7Nrs&v=IMH3sD_IFIg

    • #107486
      DBMarcos99
      Participant

      I’m not sure that the answer to current difficulties is to build more homes 😯 , but certain banks (ex -cajas I believe?) seem to think so

      http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052970204257504577152691054511820.html

      Yet banks are building in strategic spots, where they say there is more demand. Banco de Sabadell, a midsize lender based in Barcelona, is building or planning to build 50 new construction projects, and also funding the completion of 150 projects that developers wouldn’t have otherwise finished because of slack demand, said Salvador Grané, director of the bank’s real-estate division. Meanwhile smaller Banco Pastor is working on five new apartment buildings around Madrid and the northwest.

      Mr. Cabal, the real-estate broker, is pitching properties for the Bankia project in central Madrid. The bus-station location sits near the intersection of two freeways, and homes will have features like floorboard heating systems and a device that can automatically draw the blinds, start the clothes washer or call the fire department. The bank is selling them for about €4,500 a square meter and sharing the proceeds with the developer.

      “People are hiding their money under the floor boards, and they won’t take it out until things are better,” Mr. Cabal said. “With the euro fears, we’re all scared stiff” about whether the homes will sell.

      In some instances, banks are waiting until they have lined up buyers before starting construction. Banco Pastor took possession of a parcel in one of Madrid’s upscale districts in 2008. It is now continuing to round up home buyers for Mindanao House, with 104 of its 130 apartments spoken for. It started construction early last year, when about 50 units were already spoken for.

    • #107513
      Anonymous
      Participant

      The Economist misery index

    • #107516
      Anonymous
      Participant

      Mark, the above seams to sugguest that Spain has inflation of 24% or am I suppose to read inflation between 22-25 i.e. 3%

    • #107317
      DBMarcos99
      Participant

      Costa del Sol new homes glut halved in 2011

      Developers in Malaga province (home to the Costa del Sol) sold 10,000 new homes in the course of 2011, almost half the stock of 25,000 new homes on the market at the start of the year, according to the Association of Builders and Developers of Malaga (ACP).

      Lower house prices have helped boost sales, and a huge drop in housing starts over the last 3 years, most acute in popular tourist resorts like Marbella, means that the housing glut is shrinking fast.

      Given the long lead times in the building industry, there could be an acute shortage of new housing a couple of years from now.

      https://www.spanishpropertyinsight.com/buff/2012/01/13/costa-del-sol-new-homes-glut-havled-in-2011/

      For once I can’t blame those who will find this report hard to believe! Bank deals?

    • #107567
      katy
      Blocked

      I find it very hard to beliee after reading this, dated 10th Jan.

      http://www.diariosur.es/rc/20120110/economia/venta-viviendas-modera-caida-201201100930.html

    • #107599
      Anonymous
      Participant

      @DBMarcos99 wrote:

      Costa del Sol new homes glut halved in 2011

      Developers in Malaga province (home to the Costa del Sol) sold 10,000 new homes in the course of 2011, almost half the stock of 25,000 new homes on the market at the start of the year, according to the Association of Builders and Developers of Malaga (ACP).

      Lower house prices have helped boost sales, and a huge drop in housing starts over the last 3 years, most acute in popular tourist resorts like Marbella, means that the housing glut is shrinking fast.

      Given the long lead times in the building industry, there could be an acute shortage of new housing a couple of years from now.

      https://www.spanishpropertyinsight.com/buff/2012/01/13/costa-del-sol-new-homes-glut-havled-in-2011/

      For once I can’t blame those who will find this report hard to believe! Bank deals?

      As you say probably offloaded them to “one” entity.

    • #107625
      DBMarcos99
      Participant

      For those who can read Spanish, this is a very interesting article on how the Chinese community in Madrid are taking advantage of low prices and low interest rates to buy up flats in certain areas..

      Las compras de viviendas por parte de este colectivo crecieron el pasado año entre un 30% y un 40% en el área que va desde el distrito Centro de Madrid, sobre todo Lavapiés, al cordón sur de la capital (Usera, Villaverde, Vallecas…) y de la región (Fuenlabrada, Leganés, Getafe…), explica Diego Vázquez, gerente de Mr. House Inmobiliarios (http://www.mrhouseinmobiliarios.com), firma en la que el 50% de los clientes es chino. El polígono industrial Cobo Calleja, en el municipio de Fuenlabrada, es uno de los polos de concentración de empresarios y trabajadores orientales más activos en la región. Y, por ende, las localidades más próximas son las más demandadas.

      They buy, typically with a mortgage of 80-90%, but then rent out a couple of rooms so they actually earn more than the mortgage payment. What is particularly interesting is their criteria for buying a place. Certain street numbers eg 4, 13, 250 are no-nos:

      Una ayuda para seguir ahorrando. Hay que tener en cuenta los bajos márgenes de beneficio que dan sus negocios cuando exigen poca especialización. Se mueven entre los 600 y 800 euros mensuales. Buscan pisos con luz natural, orientación Norte y es prioritaria la numeración de la vivienda. “Se nos han caído ventas por el número de la calle”, indica Vázquez. “No quieren saber nada de los números 4, 13 y 250, por ejemplo”, prosigue. Y deciden con rapidez. Visitan de dos a tres pisos y si por la mañana se deciden, por la tarde reservan.

      http://www.elpais.com/articulo/economia/Oriente/estrena/casa/elpepueco/20120112elpepueco_14/Tes

    • #107628
      DBMarcos99
      Participant

      Heh, this chappy seems a bit narked! Don’t suppose he should worry about the Telegraph comments page, if he is in fact selling those properties

      http://www.houses-for-sale-in-spain.net/houses-for-sale-in-spain/who-is-buying-property-in-spain-at-the-moment

      I just thought you might like to know who is buying property in Spain at the moment. The reason I wanted to do this is that I placed a comment in an article on the Daily Telegraph about Ireland. Everyone started having a downer on Spain and the other, so called PIIGS, so I thought I would defend the country a little by stating facts rather than opinions from internet warriors probably still living in their mum’s houses. 😉

      Over the last four or five months I have had clients from 16 countries visiting and looking at buying in Spain. The list is as follows;

      China, Japan, Sweden, France, Switzerland, The United States, Canada, South Africa, Spain (Yes even the Spanish), Australia, Holland, Belgium, Egypt, Italy and finally the United Kingdom and even one Latvian client.

      (And yes some of them have developed into clients by having placed a deposit or bought already)

      Don’t believe me if you don’t like facts. It seems that the readers of the Telegraph didn’t as my comment was reported and removed.

    • #107629
      katy
      Blocked

      Yes there are lot of stuff around the internet similar from desperate estate agents. Many on here too. Funny I always think of them as being internet warriors 😆 Have to feel sorry for them though they have been trying to talk the market up for quite a long time now

    • #107631
      Anonymous
      Participant

      FT article about the problem of Bankia – one of the biggest savings banks in Spain.Their big problem is of course property.
      http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/72779ffc-4132-11e1-936b-00144feab49a.html#axzz1jo4ofBzc

    • #107636
      Chopera
      Participant

      @DBMarcos99 wrote:

      For those who can read Spanish, this is a very interesting article on how the Chinese community in Madrid are taking advantage of low prices and low interest rates to buy up flats in certain areas..

      Las compras de viviendas por parte de este colectivo crecieron el pasado año entre un 30% y un 40% en el área que va desde el distrito Centro de Madrid, sobre todo Lavapiés, al cordón sur de la capital (Usera, Villaverde, Vallecas…) y de la región (Fuenlabrada, Leganés, Getafe…), explica Diego Vázquez, gerente de Mr. House Inmobiliarios (http://www.mrhouseinmobiliarios.com), firma en la que el 50% de los clientes es chino. El polígono industrial Cobo Calleja, en el municipio de Fuenlabrada, es uno de los polos de concentración de empresarios y trabajadores orientales más activos en la región. Y, por ende, las localidades más próximas son las más demandadas.

      They buy, typically with a mortgage of 80-90%, but then rent out a couple of rooms so they actually earn more than the mortgage payment. What is particularly interesting is their criteria for buying a place. Certain street numbers eg 4, 13, 250 are no-nos:

      Una ayuda para seguir ahorrando. Hay que tener en cuenta los bajos márgenes de beneficio que dan sus negocios cuando exigen poca especialización. Se mueven entre los 600 y 800 euros mensuales. Buscan pisos con luz natural, orientación Norte y es prioritaria la numeración de la vivienda. “Se nos han caído ventas por el número de la calle”, indica Vázquez. “No quieren saber nada de los números 4, 13 y 250, por ejemplo”, prosigue. Y deciden con rapidez. Visitan de dos a tres pisos y si por la mañana se deciden, por la tarde reservan.

      http://www.elpais.com/articulo/economia/Oriente/estrena/casa/elpepueco/20120112elpepueco_14/Tes

      I took a look at a flat in the centre of Madrid over a year ago, with the intention of renting rooms out. It had about 8 rooms and would have given a pretty good yield but in the end I thought the overall hassle would be too much (and I also got the feeling it might once have been used as a “house of ill repute”). But the agent told me that quite a few Chinese were also interested in it. You can see Chinese all over Madrid now, buying up cheap locales that have gone bust and filling them with just about any sort of cheap tat you can think of.

      They’ve also started running bars as well, and one of the Chinese bar owners told me that she lived with her partner in a small room above the bar and used the kitchen for their own cooking as well. In fact their costs were so low that they could significantly undercut the neighbouring bars and their terraza was always full, with only a bit of overspill going to the neitghbouring bars. In fact one of the other bar owners had attacked her husband because he just couldn’t compete. I’m sure it’s not an isolated case.

    • #107637
      Anonymous
      Participant

      @Chopera wrote:

      @DBMarcos99 wrote:

      For those who can read Spanish, this is a very interesting article on how the Chinese community in Madrid are taking advantage of low prices and low interest rates to buy up flats in certain areas..

      Las compras de viviendas por parte de este colectivo crecieron el pasado año entre un 30% y un 40% en el área que va desde el distrito Centro de Madrid, sobre todo Lavapiés, al cordón sur de la capital (Usera, Villaverde, Vallecas…) y de la región (Fuenlabrada, Leganés, Getafe…), explica Diego Vázquez, gerente de Mr. House Inmobiliarios (http://www.mrhouseinmobiliarios.com), firma en la que el 50% de los clientes es chino. El polígono industrial Cobo Calleja, en el municipio de Fuenlabrada, es uno de los polos de concentración de empresarios y trabajadores orientales más activos en la región. Y, por ende, las localidades más próximas son las más demandadas.

      They buy, typically with a mortgage of 80-90%, but then rent out a couple of rooms so they actually earn more than the mortgage payment. What is particularly interesting is their criteria for buying a place. Certain street numbers eg 4, 13, 250 are no-nos:

      Una ayuda para seguir ahorrando. Hay que tener en cuenta los bajos márgenes de beneficio que dan sus negocios cuando exigen poca especialización. Se mueven entre los 600 y 800 euros mensuales. Buscan pisos con luz natural, orientación Norte y es prioritaria la numeración de la vivienda. “Se nos han caído ventas por el número de la calle”, indica Vázquez. “No quieren saber nada de los números 4, 13 y 250, por ejemplo”, prosigue. Y deciden con rapidez. Visitan de dos a tres pisos y si por la mañana se deciden, por la tarde reservan.

      http://www.elpais.com/articulo/economia/Oriente/estrena/casa/elpepueco/20120112elpepueco_14/Tes

      I took a look at a flat in the centre of Madrid over a year ago, with the intention of renting rooms out. It had about 8 rooms and would have given a pretty good yield but in the end I thought the overall hassle would be too much (and I also got the feeling it might once have been used as a “house of ill repute”). But the agent told me that quite a few Chinese were also interested in it. You can see Chinese all over Madrid now, buying up cheap locales that have gone bust and filling them with just about any sort of cheap tat you can think of.

      They’ve also started running bars as well, and one of the Chinese bar owners told me that she lived with her partner in a small room above the bar and used the kitchen for their own cooking as well. In fact their costs were so low that they could significantly undercut the neighbouring bars and their terraza was always full, with only a bit of overspill going to the neitghbouring bars. In fact one of the other bar owners had attacked her husband because he just couldn’t compete. I’m sure it’s not an isolated case.

      I am not sure how Chinese resturants in Almunecar and Salobrena can afford to offer 3 course meals ( plus coffee/tea/ice-cream and calendars for children and a free meal for each 60 Euro spend there) for around 5.50 Euros.

    • #107638
      Anonymous
      Participant

      Say what you want about the chinese but they are fearsome at doing business. I have seen them enter malls and just crowd out the competition with their riff raff. I don’t mind that as long as no illegall things are involved. Very often they have illegall workers though but they don’t mind paying the fines from time to time. They don’t mind working long hours for nothing.

      I have seen chinese restaurants having buffés “6 euros” that must be impossible to make any money on.

      Hopefully their children will not want to work as hard as they do becuase otherwise the western world could just close up shop. 😀

    • #107643
      DBMarcos99
      Participant

      @Ardun wrote:

      Say what you want about the chinese but they are fearsome at doing business. I have seen them enter malls and just crowd out the competition with their riff raff. I don’t mind that as long as no illegall things are involved. Very often they have illegall workers though but they don’t mind paying the fines from time to time. They don’t mind working long hours for nothing.

      I have seen chinese restaurants having buffés “6 euros” that must be impossible to make any money on.

      Hopefully their children will not want to work as hard as they do becuase otherwise the western world could just close up shop. 😀

      It reminds me of the influx of Asians (Indians, Pakistanis, Bangladeshis) to the UK in the 60s/70s/80s. Many worked long hours in corner shops or restaurants etc., so that their kids could get an education and not work in low paid jobs. Many (not all I know) became doctors, dentists, entrepreneurs etc. I get the feeling that many Chinese kids now in this Spanish influx will become professionals, IT programmers, businesspeople etc. There already is one that I know of – Didac Lee who’s now a successful Catalan entrepreneur (his Taiwan parents moved to Spain before he was born) and is even on the Barcelona FC board!

    • #107641
      katy
      Blocked
    • #107647
      DBMarcos99
      Participant

      @Chopera wrote:

      @DBMarcos99 wrote:

      For those who can read Spanish, this is a very interesting article on how the Chinese community in Madrid are taking advantage of low prices and low interest rates to buy up flats in certain areas..

      Las compras de viviendas por parte de este colectivo crecieron el pasado año entre un 30% y un 40% en el área que va desde el distrito Centro de Madrid, sobre todo Lavapiés, al cordón sur de la capital (Usera, Villaverde, Vallecas…) y de la región (Fuenlabrada, Leganés, Getafe…), explica Diego Vázquez, gerente de Mr. House Inmobiliarios (http://www.mrhouseinmobiliarios.com), firma en la que el 50% de los clientes es chino. El polígono industrial Cobo Calleja, en el municipio de Fuenlabrada, es uno de los polos de concentración de empresarios y trabajadores orientales más activos en la región. Y, por ende, las localidades más próximas son las más demandadas.

      They buy, typically with a mortgage of 80-90%, but then rent out a couple of rooms so they actually earn more than the mortgage payment. What is particularly interesting is their criteria for buying a place. Certain street numbers eg 4, 13, 250 are no-nos:

      Una ayuda para seguir ahorrando. Hay que tener en cuenta los bajos márgenes de beneficio que dan sus negocios cuando exigen poca especialización. Se mueven entre los 600 y 800 euros mensuales. Buscan pisos con luz natural, orientación Norte y es prioritaria la numeración de la vivienda. “Se nos han caído ventas por el número de la calle”, indica Vázquez. “No quieren saber nada de los números 4, 13 y 250, por ejemplo”, prosigue. Y deciden con rapidez. Visitan de dos a tres pisos y si por la mañana se deciden, por la tarde reservan.

      http://www.elpais.com/articulo/economia/Oriente/estrena/casa/elpepueco/20120112elpepueco_14/Tes

      I took a look at a flat in the centre of Madrid over a year ago, with the intention of renting rooms out. It had about 8 rooms and would have given a pretty good yield but in the end I thought the overall hassle would be too much (and I also got the feeling it might once have been used as a “house of ill repute”). But the agent told me that quite a few Chinese were also interested in it. You can see Chinese all over Madrid now, buying up cheap locales that have gone bust and filling them with just about any sort of cheap tat you can think of.

      They’ve also started running bars as well, and one of the Chinese bar owners told me that she lived with her partner in a small room above the bar and used the kitchen for their own cooking as well. In fact their costs were so low that they could significantly undercut the neighbouring bars and their terraza was always full, with only a bit of overspill going to the neitghbouring bars. In fact one of the other bar owners had attacked her husband because he just couldn’t compete. I’m sure it’s not an isolated case.

      One other thing about that article – I didn’t realise there were now flats on sale for between 60k and 100k in Madrid city (ok to the south, the north is generally ssen as more desirable). At the right price I may choose my retirement flat in Madrid instead of Valencia, but that depends on convincing my partner who prefers being near the sea.

    • #107649
      Chopera
      Participant

      @DBMarcos99 wrote:

      One other thing about that article – I didn’t realise there were now flats on sale for between 60k and 100k in Madrid city (ok to the south, the north is generally ssen as more desirable). At the right price I may choose my retirement flat in Madrid instead of Valencia, but that depends on convincing my partner who prefers being near the sea.

      Yes a quick look on idealista shows a few flats in that price range, but if you refine the search for flats bigger than 60m2 and with a lift then they soon disappear. But it’s still better than the boom years when there was absolutely nothing below €100k. I know a few people in their 50s who have taken semi-retirement and hang around Madrid teaching English. It’s not a bad lifestyle (provided you’ve got other income streams) since it keeps you occupied (without being stressed) and you get to be part of a vibrant city. I like the sea as well but I always felt that if I retired there I’d get a bit bored. Although I’m sure Valencia has enough going on to keep people busy.

    • #107691
      DBMarcos99
      Participant

      My God, the Russians really are coming! 😮

      Vladimir Putin is moving to Marbella

      http://www.typicallyspanish.com/news/publish/article_33456.shtml

      The Russian Prime Minister is currently buying a property in the luxury La Zagaleta urbanisation in Benhavís. Website Vanitatis reports Putin has been convinced of the charms of the area by the ex Mayor of Moscow, Yuri Luzhkov, who already lives in the urbanisation which he describes as ‘my place in the world’, where he has planted fruit trees and install three hives which give ‘a fantastic honey’.

      Those who live in the urbanisation have the right to vote on whether or not to accept any new neighbour, and Vanitatis reports that some of the people who have been rejected include Julio Iglasias, Shakira and David Beckham. Hugh Grant was accepted however.

      They rejected Shakira???

    • #107692
      Anonymous
      Participant

      I rather have Shakira than Putin !!!!!!!!!!

    • #107693
      DBMarcos99
      Participant

      @shakeel wrote:

      I rather have Shakira than Putin !!!!!!!!!!

      Yes, I think you’d be in a very long queue!

    • #107697
      katy
      Blocked

      We shall see about Putin. There have been several hyped myths over the years. La Zagaleta is nice but there are a lot on sale and the views aren’t as stunning as they used to be due to nearby developments. The stuff about rejecting Beckham, Julio sounds very much over-hyped. Julio has a msassive country estate close to where I lived (met him once when I was walking the dogs, he was on a quad bike also saw him in the local farmacía) his place is far better than Zagaleta. Someone at our golf club lives in Zagaleta, a very down to earth Yorkshireman, a fat cat who bought some of british Gas subsidaries. Tell me why they would let him in and a Dutch pop star but not Julio who is revered throughout Spain 😆

      File it away with all the place Bill Gates is going to buy :mrgreen:

      Just had look at the article, one of the people who is named as living there has been dead over 2 years. Plane crash in South America and implicated in various frauds…who voted him in then. Perhaps the Iranian who is implicated in the ballena Blanca corruption case 😆

    • #107709
      DBMarcos99
      Participant

      Buying a flat to rent out, is more profitable in Madrid or Barcelona, than in Paris or Berlin (and just behind London)
      (report in Spanish)

      http://www.elconfidencial.com/vivienda/2012/01/24/comprar-piso-para-alquilar-en-madrid-o-barcelona-es-mas-rentable-que-en-berlin-o-paris-91418/

      A pesar del escaso desarrollo del alquiler en España frente a otros países europeos, comprar una vivienda para alquilarla en Madrid o Barcelona brinda una rentabilidad y unos plazos de recuperación de la inversión más atractivos que en las principales capitales de la europa continental.

      Según los datos obtenidos por idealista.com, la rentabilidad bruta de una vivienda en alquiler en ambas ciudades se sitúa en el 4,1% y el 3,9% respectivamente, porcentajes por encima del 3,3% de París o el 3,75 de Berlín. La capital italiana, Roma, ofrece una rentabilidad superior (4,5%) mientras que en Milán es la misma que en Madrid (4,1%). Londres, por su parte, ofrece un retorno de la inversión superior, del 4,3%.

    • #107722
      DBMarcos99
      Participant

      Looks like the demand for housing in northern Madrid is going to increase still further, now it looks like the local politicians are going to support the demands of Sheldon Adelson in return for the building of a new “las Vegas-style complex”

      http://www.elpais.com/articulo/english/Madrid/head/mulls/tax/haven/for/casino/deal/elpepueng/20120123elpeng_12/Ten

      Madrid regional premier Esperanza Aguirre on Monday proposed creating a legal and tax “island” in the region to accommodate the plans of US gambling king Sheldon Adelson to build a huge casino complex.

      Sheldon’s EuroVegas project, of 12 resorts with 36,000 rooms, six casinos, nine theaters and three golf courses would entail an investment of up to 18.8 billion euros through to 2022 and the creation of 261,000 jobs. But Sheldon in turn wants the land for the complex free, a very generous tax holiday and for the smoking ban in Spain to be waived at the development.

      There have already been quite a few objections from local people and bodies, and it’s true that a gambling complex will pose certain problems. But it’s very hard to turn down the prospect of so many jobs, still less all the extra tourism and money that it will bring to the region.
      I understand other demands include a link to the high speed rail system (relatively easy I would have thought – already there is a link to Barajas Terminal 4, so a few extra kilometres won’t be much of a problem). Not so sure about relaxing the smoking ban, but since the PP are in national government as well, perhaps not an impossible task either..

    • #107724
      katy
      Blocked

      Well he is rich enough but he would probably be dead by the time all the permits come through 😆 See he wants the land for free 😉 It will never happen.

    • #107726
      DBMarcos99
      Participant

      My guess is that it will get built, and several years before the London-Birmingham high speed line in the UK. 😉 Madrid has a track record of getting big projects completed eg the 4 towers, the crossrail link from Atocha to Chamartin, the Rio project, and all those high speed rail lines. Plus it means a lot of profits for the gambling tycoons, and a lot of jobs and investment for Madrid. Whether or not it’s a good idea is more debatable. 🙄

    • #107727
      katy
      Blocked

      No, I don’t think it will happen…lets have a bet 💡

    • #107730
      DBMarcos99
      Participant

      @katy wrote:

      No, I don’t think it will happen…lets have a bet 💡

      You’re the one who stated the Paramount park wouldn’t get off the ground? Based on this report, I think your track record is looking a little dodgy now – best you save your money!
      Of course, we’re not at Feb 6 yet, but it looks like it’s going to be signed off then. Not that it bothers me, theme parks and gambling casinos aren’t my thing.

      http://www.nuwireinvestor.com/articles/murcia-spain-real-estate-to-get-boost-from-58529.aspx

      The land for the Paramount branded theme park in Murcia, Spain, will be officially signed off next month, it has been confirmed.

      The Mayor of Alhama de Murcia and local estate agent Mercers said that the deal will finally silence a group of ‘doubters’ who thought the international brand might back out because of the global economic downturn.

      But Proyectos Emblematicos Murcianos (PREMURSA), the promoter behind the park and lifestyle centre, confirmed that that it will purchase the land destined for the project at a cost of €15.8 million on 06 February 2012 when details of investors will be revealed.

      ‘Some have been sceptical about Murcia’s grand plans, understandable given the economic climate, however the Mayor has reiterated the importance of the project in guaranteeing work to a whole generation of young people growing up in Alhama de Murcia,’ said Chris Mercer, director of Mercers.

      ‘Likewise, if PREMURSA has officially stated its intent to spend almost €16 million next month we can be confident that they have the backing to proceed otherwise €16 million for what is essentially a rather unremarkable piece of land would be a seriously expensive error. All eyes will be on 06 February in anticipation of the biggest step forward in the project to date,’ he added.

      The land in question is in Alhama de Murcia and extends to just over 1.8 million square meters of which 774,777 square meters will become the theme park and just over 1.03 million square meters become a lifestyle centre with seven hotels, restaurants, bars, nightclubs and a business district with modern office space, an auditorium and convention centre.

    • #107732
      katy
      Blocked

      Yes I did and it won’t…that’s two bets 😀

    • #107748
      Anonymous
      Participant

      @DBMarcos99 wrote:

      @katy wrote:

      No, I don’t think it will happen…lets have a bet 💡

      You’re the one who stated the Paramount park wouldn’t get off the ground? Based on this report, I think your track record is looking a little dodgy now – best you save your money!
      Of course, we’re not at Feb 6 yet, but it looks like it’s going to be signed off then. Not that it bothers me, theme parks and gambling casinos aren’t my thing.

      http://www.nuwireinvestor.com/articles/murcia-spain-real-estate-to-get-boost-from-58529.aspx

      The land for the Paramount branded theme park in Murcia, Spain, will be officially signed off next month, it has been confirmed.

      The Mayor of Alhama de Murcia and local estate agent Mercers said that the deal will finally silence a group of ‘doubters’ who thought the international brand might back out because of the global economic downturn.

      But Proyectos Emblematicos Murcianos (PREMURSA), the promoter behind the park and lifestyle centre, confirmed that that it will purchase the land destined for the project at a cost of €15.8 million on 06 February 2012 when details of investors will be revealed.

      ‘Some have been sceptical about Murcia’s grand plans, understandable given the economic climate, however the Mayor has reiterated the importance of the project in guaranteeing work to a whole generation of young people growing up in Alhama de Murcia,’ said Chris Mercer, director of Mercers.

      ‘Likewise, if PREMURSA has officially stated its intent to spend almost €16 million next month we can be confident that they have the backing to proceed otherwise €16 million for what is essentially a rather unremarkable piece of land would be a seriously expensive error. All eyes will be on 06 February in anticipation of the biggest step forward in the project to date,’ he added.

      The land in question is in Alhama de Murcia and extends to just over 1.8 million square meters of which 774,777 square meters will become the theme park and just over 1.03 million square meters become a lifestyle centre with seven hotels, restaurants, bars, nightclubs and a business district with modern office space, an auditorium and convention centre.

      OMG YOU BROUGHT UP THE NEVER EVERLAND PROJECT! 😀

      I will never happens at least not the way they promote it.

    • #107749
      Fuengi (Andrew)
      Participant

      @DBMarcos99 wrote:

      @katy wrote:

      No, I don’t think it will happen…lets have a bet 💡

      You’re the one who stated the Paramount park wouldn’t get off the ground? Based on this report, I think your track record is looking a little dodgy now – best you save your money!
      Of course, we’re not at Feb 6 yet, but it looks like it’s going to be signed off then. Not that it bothers me, theme parks and gambling casinos aren’t my thing.

      http://www.nuwireinvestor.com/articles/murcia-spain-real-estate-to-get-boost-from-58529.aspx

      The land for the Paramount branded theme park in Murcia, Spain, will be officially signed off next month, it has been confirmed.

      The Mayor of Alhama de Murcia and local estate agent Mercers said that the deal will finally silence a group of ‘doubters’ who thought the international brand might back out because of the global economic downturn.

      But Proyectos Emblematicos Murcianos (PREMURSA), the promoter behind the park and lifestyle centre, confirmed that that it will purchase the land destined for the project at a cost of €15.8 million on 06 February 2012 when details of investors will be revealed.

      ‘Some have been sceptical about Murcia’s grand plans, understandable given the economic climate, however the Mayor has reiterated the importance of the project in guaranteeing work to a whole generation of young people growing up in Alhama de Murcia,’ said Chris Mercer, director of Mercers.

      ‘Likewise, if PREMURSA has officially stated its intent to spend almost €16 million next month we can be confident that they have the backing to proceed otherwise €16 million for what is essentially a rather unremarkable piece of land would be a seriously expensive error. All eyes will be on 06 February in anticipation of the biggest step forward in the project to date,’ he added.

      The land in question is in Alhama de Murcia and extends to just over 1.8 million square meters of which 774,777 square meters will become the theme park and just over 1.03 million square meters become a lifestyle centre with seven hotels, restaurants, bars, nightclubs and a business district with modern office space, an auditorium and convention centre.

      I hope it happens. But as I understand it, are buying the land and have a licence agreement from paramount. They still need to find the investors to fund the billion euro project. also would be nice if they could specify the hotel chains that are looking at the locations, etc…

    • #107750
      Fuengi (Andrew)
      Participant

      found this bit strange in the propertywire article http://www.propertywire.com/news/europe/spain-paramount-park-property-201201055950.html

      The land in question is in Alhama de Murcia and extends to just over 1.8 million square meters of which 774,777 square meters will become the theme park and just over 1.03 million square meters become a lifestyle centre with seven hotels, restaurants, bars, nightclubs and a business district with modern office space, an auditorium and convention centre.

      As the land already has plans in place for residential development, planning paperwork should be swift to meet the strict timescales of the Paramount Licensing agreement.

      converting land from residential use to commercial use is not a quick and simple process. unless i’m missreading the article

    • #107752
      katy
      Blocked

      I think it is a overhyped dream or a con to sell all those empty properties around there. Most of the people involved seem to be part of the murcia mafia. There is also a problem with water for so large a project in that area. The madrid one needs at least 12 laws changing, can’t see that happening. However, I am happy to be proved wrong. There have been several other “Las vegas” type projects proposed over the years that died, never to be mentioned again.

      Anyone remember all the Disney rumours on the CDS. One started in Elviria at the same time a lot of new developments were taking place…it then moved to Estepona :mrgreen:

    • #107754
      DBMarcos99
      Participant

      House prices to fall further, according to Economy Minister de Guindos.

      http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-01-25/spain-s-de-guindos-says-home-prices-to-fall-with-bank-cleanup.html

      A cleanup of real estate on the books of Spanish banks will contribute to a decline in property prices that will make homes available to more people, Economy Minister Luis de Guindos said.

      Spanish banks are “filling up” with real-estate assets such as apartments that aren’t going to market because they’re not being priced properly, de Guindos said in an interview with state broadcaster TVE today. When they are priced at their real value “we’ll find that the price of housing in Spain will fall more, there’ll be an adjustment and it will be available for a lot more people,” he said.

    • #107807
      DBMarcos99
      Participant

      Here are the places to avoid (unless you like empty streets). The ghost towns in Spain (article in Spanish)

      http://www.abc.es/20120131/economia/abci-ciudades-fantasma-pocero-201201301456.html

      I see our old friend Seseña is featured!

    • #107808
      DBMarcos99
      Participant

      @DBMarcos99 wrote:

      Here are the places to avoid (unless you like empty streets). The ghost towns in Spain (article in Spanish)

      http://www.abc.es/20120131/economia/abci-ciudades-fantasma-pocero-201201301456.html

      I see our old friend Seseña is featured!

      Hah, seems like a coordinated media campaign – read about the ghost towns in English at BusinessInsider
      http://www.businessinsider.com/spain-ghost-towns-satellite-2011-4

    • #103171
      Anonymous
      Participant

      Depressing, but probably right:

      The Elephant in the Room is Spain, Not Italy

    • #103028
      Anonymous
      Participant

      Depressing, but probably right:

      The Elephant in the Room is Spain, Not Italy

    • #107995
      Anonymous
      Participant

      Really bad news from the FT:
      Spain’s recession enters new phase

    • #107996
      Anonymous
      Participant

      @mark wrote:

      Really bad news from the FT:
      Spain’s recession enters new phase

      Can you please copy paste the article in here?

    • #107997
      logan
      Participant

      I saw a piece on BBC World Service business this morning. They filmed hundreds of Greeks in buses crossing the boarder into Bulgaria to shop for essential supplies. It seems outside the Euro area the cost of living is at least a third lower. One Bulgarian man interviewed said he can live quite comfortably there on €250 a month!
      I have also seen an advertisement recently in Spain advertising Bulgarian and Romanian products being sold in car boot markets.
      I think working people who have now become hopeless unemployed in the peripheral states may well start to ask if being in the Euro has ruined them.

    • #107999
      Anonymous
      Participant

      Just Google Spain’s “recession enters new phase” and find the FT article, that will enable you to read it.

      Dit.

    • #108001
      GarySFBCN
      Participant

      Not about Spanish property, but press article of importance:

      Lloyds plunges to £3.5bn loss for 2011
      • Shares in Lloyds Banking Group biggest faller in FTSE 100
      • Former executives could be in line for £2.2m shares
      • Taxpayer sitting on £10bn loss on its 41% stake
      • Bonus pool down 30% at £375m
      • Average bonus for workforce stands at £3,900
      • Lloyds plunges to £3.5bn loss for 2011

      http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2012/feb/24/lloyds-plunges-loss-2011-shares

      Plus they’re cutting an additional 15,000 jobs, in addition to the 30,000 jobs they have already cut. My question is that given this train wreck of bank, why are there ANY bonuses? A 30% decrease is hardly drastic.

    • #108002
      Anonymous
      Participant

      the main reason for the losses was the amount set aside for repayment of ppi

    • #108003
      Anonymous
      Participant

      Once the PPI & Bonus is reversed than they are in profit or shall we say the tax payers are in profit.

    • #108015
      DBMarcos99
      Participant

      The battle between Barcelona and Madrid to get EuroVegas is hotting up (at the moment it seems like Barcelona may be in front, a fact that is annoying quite a few activists in Catalunya, who don’t want it on their patch).
      An interesting article on Sheldon Adelson here – I didn’t realise he’d already set up casinos in Macau

      http://www.forbes.com/sites/stevenbertoni/2012/02/22/comeback-billionaire-how-sheldon-adelson-dominates-chinese-gambling-and-u-s-politics/

      With $12 billion plowed into four casino projects in Macao, he’s likely the largest foreign investor in China—ever. With almost 57 million square feet of resort space, Adelson controls real estate akin to 21 Empire State Buildings. He’s helped turn Singapore, he boasts, “from a stodgy, boring conservative town to a town of excitement and culinary arts and museums.” His power stretches from Israel, where he owns an influential right-wing newspaper and directs hundreds of millions of dollars to local charities, to his home base, Las Vegas, where he controls the 4,000-suite Venetian casino.

      Seems like he is genuinely interested in the Spanish Euro-Vegas too

      But first he’s looking to expand his power base onto a new continent. Thirsty for land and demand, Adelson’s next big bet is Spain. “The one that’s in my control is to build a Europa Vegas, to set up the equivalent of half the Vegas Strip that I couldn’t continue to do in Macao,” says Adelson. He’s sketching out options for mini-Vegases—12-hotel strips he would own entirely—outside either Bar­celona or Madrid. “We believe we have the necessary package of agreements with the government which we need to provide assurance of success,” he claims. “We’re just finalizing the last components.”

      What about defaults, riots and the rest of the European economic mess? This conservative in politics didn’t become the global casino king by being a conservative in business, even after the harsh lesson of 2008. “It will take us four to five years,” he says. “By then everything will be solved. There are tens of billions to be made.”

    • #108016
      Anonymous
      Participant

      He is an evil man. He is donating wast amounts of money to “The Grinch” campaign for presidency. Not because he really wants him to win but so to mess up the others campaigns and make it easier for Romney to get into office. Why did he choose to support Gingrich? Because he said that the palestinians was an invented people. He is one of those people that should be serving life in prison for fraud and rackateering.

      Big supporter of the Bush family… need one say more. The kind of people that in reality control the power of goverment in The US.

    • #108017
      katy
      Blocked

      He would fit in very well in Spain according to his reputation for corruption 🙄 Probably be dead before Spain changed the laws to allow him to do it, he is about 80 yrs old!

      http://news.yahoo.com/criminal-probe-sheldon-adelsons-casino-empire-224806122.html

    • #108019
      DBMarcos99
      Participant

      @Ardun wrote:

      He is an evil man. He is donating wast amounts of money to “The Grinch” campaign for presidency. Not because he really wants him to win but so to mess up the others campaigns and make it easier for Romney to get into office. Why did he choose to support Gingrich? Because he said that the palestinians was an invented people. He is one of those people that should be serving life in prison for fraud and rackateering.

      Big supporter of the Bush family… need one say more. The kind of people that in reality control the power of goverment in The US.

      I think the main opposition to the plan does not take into account anyone’s political views (which may be irrelevant in the medium to long run, the guy is already quite old), but focuses on the impact on society of gambling. Will the new complex create new crime opportunities, people with gambling addictions etc.? Quite possibly, but these things exist in Spain already. Has no-one seen the puti-clubs you get in and around big cities? Or the fruit machines in almost every cafe and bar? Another potential problem is that there will be another localised property boom wherever this new complex is built. They are claiming 200,000 new jobs may be created – these people will need bedsits or accommodation near to work. At least it will provide some relief for those who work (and currently don’t) in the construction sector.
      On the whole I can see why the politicians are excited by this plan – all those jobs and all that investment must be very appealing. There will be other positive side effects as well for example filling up more AVE trains with visitors to the complex, more flights and business for either Barajas or El Prat airports.
      Funnily enough, at one stage Tony Blair tried to introduce a casino city (or two) to the UK, but the plan was dropped when Gordon Brown took over. Despite the obvious dangers, this type of scheme is very alluring.

    • #108021
      Anonymous
      Participant

      @DBMarcos99 wrote:

      @Ardun wrote:

      He is an evil man. He is donating wast amounts of money to “The Grinch” campaign for presidency. Not because he really wants him to win but so to mess up the others campaigns and make it easier for Romney to get into office. Why did he choose to support Gingrich? Because he said that the palestinians was an invented people. He is one of those people that should be serving life in prison for fraud and rackateering.

      Big supporter of the Bush family… need one say more. The kind of people that in reality control the power of goverment in The US.

      I think the main opposition to the plan does not take into account anyone’s political views (which may be irrelevant in the medium to long run, the guy is already quite old), but focuses on the impact on society of gambling. Will the new complex create new crime opportunities, people with gambling addictions etc.? Quite possibly, but these things exist in Spain already. Has no-one seen the puti-clubs you get in and around big cities? Or the fruit machines in almost every cafe and bar? Another potential problem is that there will be another localised property boom wherever this new complex is built. They are claiming 200,000 new jobs may be created – these people will need bedsits or accommodation near to work. At least it will provide some relief for those who work (and currently don’t) in the construction sector.
      On the whole I can see why the politicians are excited by this plan – all those jobs and all that investment must be very appealing. There will be other positive side effects as well for example filling up more AVE trains with visitors to the complex, more flights and business for either Barajas or El Prat airports.
      Funnily enough, at one stage Tony Blair tried to introduce a casino city (or two) to the UK, but the plan was dropped when Gordon Brown took over. Despite the obvious dangers, this type of scheme is very alluring.

      I agree I just wish it was someone else. No one can turn down the opportunity for something like this. I just wonder how Adelson would be able to keep his cools with the stiff labour laws in Spain though.

    • #108022
      DBMarcos99
      Participant

      This is a very interesting site for research purposes across all countries. I don’t know how it can be totally up-to-date and correct though.

      http://www.globalpropertyguide.com/

    • #108024
      Anonymous
      Participant

      @DBMarcos99 wrote:

      This is a very interesting site for research purposes across all countries. I don’t know how it can be totally up-to-date and correct though.

      http://www.globalpropertyguide.com/

      I often visit it but they are often way behind in their articles. It’s an interesting webpage for reading up on “weird” markets that you don’t know so much about. The information is not very detailed though.

    • #108067
      DBMarcos99
      Participant

      An article in the Guardian on the battle between Barcelona and Madrid for Euro Vegas

      http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2012/feb/29/europa-vegas-madrid-barcelona

      Last week Adelson was in Spain again, looking at a vast beachfront stretch of land close to Barcelona’s airport that has been offered to him despite environmental protection orders.

      “This would turn Catalonia and Barcelona into the leading tourism zone in Europe,” said the regional Catalan president, Artur Mas.

      But Mas accepts Madrid is in the lead. Its regional prime minister, Esperanza Aguirre, has met Adelson five times. “We should change whatever norms have to be changed,” she said recently. “We have to encourage this … though there are some demands that can be accepted and others that cannot.”

      Both regions hope Europa Vegas will have the kind of runaway financial success that Adelson’s new outposts in Singapore and Macao are enjoying.

      From what I can gather in the Spanish press, Madrid are ahead in this battle. But Barcelona are claiming Chinese interest in building their own casino complex there. We shall see…

      If the complex is built north-east of Madrid, then a certain “Soto de Henares” estate may become hot property (and any other building developments on that eastern side).

      Incidentally it’ll be interesting to see if the AVE extension to the casino (one of the demands) is also built. I don’t think that is out of the question, they’ve already put a link to the airport.

    • #108123
      Anonymous
      Participant

      More gloom from Wolfgang Münchau in the FT
      There is no Spanish siesta for the eurozone

    • #108124
      logan
      Participant

      This article paragraph confirms my opinion of which I have posted on SPI many times.

      On my estimates, Spain’s house price adjustment is still less than halfway complete. In real terms, the US housing boom has been almost completely cancelled out. The graphs of historic bubbles, if expressed in real prices, have nice bell-shaped curves. This makes sense, since domestic property is an unproductive real asset. In Spain, as elsewhere, it would be reasonable to assume real prices will eventually fall to where they were in the mid-to-late 1990s.

      Author – Wolfgang Münchau.

    • #108127
      Anonymous
      Participant

      Exactly, too many people just don’t accept the real value the buyers put on a property here. In real terms there are flats here for 25,000 (3 bedroom older block) but one sold to a Spanish guy for 15,000 the other day. The 25k ones are still for sale and the banks refuse to lower their prices as they say that they are rock bottom. BUT, take a look at estate agents and you’ll still find flats for sale for 80k ??

      What’s up with people, it’s not nice to know that you own a worthless pile of bricks which costs the same as a second hand car but we all have to deal with it. More sales would help us all. It was hard watching the Spanish news the other day when the President of Ecudador said that they are going to help his people who have problems here in Spain with their mortgages. He blatantly said that the banks overvalued properties. What a perfect time for Spain to turn around and ask how many ‘fincas’ have been built over there with the ‘excess cash’ that so many of these banks handed out for ‘furniture’. hey ho….haven’t heard Rajoy saying that there is any help for Spanish youngsters who are also trapped with a guarantor and overvalued property……

    • #108128
      Anonymous
      Participant

      @itsme wrote:

      Exactly, too many people just don’t accept the real value the buyers put on a property here. In real terms there are flats here for 25,000 (3 bedroom older block) but one sold to a Spanish guy for 15,000 the other day. The 25k ones are still for sale and the banks refuse to lower their prices as they say that they are rock bottom. BUT, take a look at estate agents and you’ll still find flats for sale for 80k ??

      What’s up with people, it’s not nice to know that you own a worthless pile of bricks which costs the same as a second hand car but we all have to deal with it. More sales would help us all. It was hard watching the Spanish news the other day when the President of Ecudador said that they are going to help his people who have problems here in Spain with their mortgages. He blatantly said that the banks overvalued properties. What a perfect time for Spain to turn around and ask how many ‘fincas’ have been built over there with the ‘excess cash’ that so many of these banks handed out for ‘furniture’. hey ho….haven’t heard Rajoy saying that there is any help for Spanish youngsters who are also trapped with a guarantor and overvalued property……

      Well, 15,000 is not really a worthless pile of bricks… I am sure that 15K is a lot of money for many people.

    • #108130
      logan
      Participant

      I think in many ways the market situation with domestic property in Spain is a ‘no brainer’. Given the continued contraction of the EZ economies especially in Club Med. states.

      The over supply of domestic property is one negative but add to that the catastrophic unemployment figures especially among the young and well educated. Then consider the financial position of the banks in these countries who actually provide the fuel for the market to fire up. Private lending in Spain to the market has dried up, they continue to hold on to massive property portfolios that have no meaningful value reductions.
      Then consider the EU inspired government programmed austerity policies which will drastically slow the economy even further.

      Taken all this into account you would have to have just arrived from the planet Zog if you thought property in Spain was worth a punt.
      Fine if you seek a lifestyle purchase and don’t mind a few years down the line sitting on a property that’s worth a quarter of what you paid for it, impossible to sell and costing a relative small fortune to maintain.

      I predict the backlog of unsold properties will only increase as the economy slides deeper into recession, prices plummet as young and not so young people emigrate to find work and a future.

    • #108138
      Anonymous
      Participant

      flosmichael, 15k is a lot of money to me, I wish I had it! We have a lot of worthless bricks with our 108k mortgage on something which others put a value of 15k on!

    • #108171
      Anonymous
      Participant

      Spanish economy: Gathering gloom

      By Victor Mallet
      Concerns are building about the country’s banks – and about its chances of avoiding a bailout

      Second, they think several Spanish banks, especially some of the former cajas or unlisted savings banks, still refuse to recognise the full extent of their loan losses as a result of over­exuberant property investments in the decade to 2007. In other words, although the state has taken on some of the burden of private sector debts, it may need to spend billions of euros more on rescuing “zombie” banks.

      For this reason, writes Dario Perkins of Lombard Street Research, in a pessimistic analysis of the euro crisis that predicts a Greek exit from the single currency, “in many ways, Spain looks even worse than Italy.” He sees economic growth declining this year, while unemployment rises – contributing to “further sharp declines” in house prices and widespread loan defaults by businesses and households.

      http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/d18c93c0-740f-11e1-bcec-00144feab49a.html#axzz1pvrOpjj5

    • #108172
      logan
      Participant

      I agree the situation is dire. I cannot see how Spain is going to extricate itself from a hopeless mess. The property boom has severely damaged the financial infrastructure. Property investors have lost millions and recovering any confidence will take generations.
      Even if there is eventually a small turn around it’s unlikely institutions will ever commit themselves to property financing to even a small portion of the previous scale. Confidence is shot to pieces.

      Anyone buying a property in Spain today cannot expect any capital gain but the more likely scenario of decreasing equity value. With that situation existing all across the country construction cannot recover.

      Since it was the construction/property sector which produced Spain’s post war economic boom where is the growth going to come from?

      Agriculture, I don’t think so. Alternative energy a minuscule amount. Manufacturing a little but competing with China and Germany will be hard pounding. Mineral weath perhaps a little but nowhere near enough. To be successful in manufacturing wages and unit labour costs need to fall and productivity has to rise considerably. I don’t think that’s possible in the medium term especially with the strong union resistance in Spain.

      The general strike called for 29th March is an example of head banging union stupidity and will change nothing. The people of Spain have a very gloomy future.

    • #108173
      GarySFBCN
      Participant

      Well, I’m making my next attempt to purchase something in Barcelona sometime mid-April.

      Asking prices are falling and I’m hoping to get something at a reasonable price. I understand the risk of further deflated prices and I will use that in negotiations. But I’m also prepared not to buy.

      I may need some help with getting a mortgage. I was looking to put 50% down, but I’m thinking that it may be better to only put 20-30% as a down payment. Any thoughts? Also, let me know if there are any reputable mortgage brokers I can deal with. And Mark, I’m not sure of what you do and if you are interested in business from a non-gazillionaire.

      PS: I already have some appointments to view aticos when I arrive. But just in case anyone here knows of something, I’m looking for

        an atico with a good-size terrace,
        minimum 3 bedrooms,
        ideally 2 bathrooms,
        elevator,
        ideally larger kitchen for a table,
        close to transportation (metro),
        close to a good mercado,
        in the following neighborhoods: Example right, left, Poble Nou, Villa Olympica, Clot, Sagrada Familia, and possibly Montjuic and Gracia.

      I’ve seen just about everything on Idealista and Fotocasa.

      What do I want to pay? As little as possible. I’d like to keep the hipoteca 800euros/month but hopefully less. Anything that can be purchased for under 400k euros. PS: I should add that while I strive to be ‘nice’ – I can be an absolute ass when in negotiations.

    • #108182
      katy
      Blocked

      Castellón airport still no flights a year after it’s fake opening. They claim to be negotiating with tour-operators eg. the Russians etc. (now where have we heard the Russians are coming before 😆 )

      Diario sur claims it is a national joke. You can read it here, in Spanish but worth a translation

      http://www.diariosur.es/rc/20120325/economia/castellon-aviones-201203251656.html

    • #108187
      logan
      Participant

      Another new unnecessary airport costing millions has also been built at Corvera in Murcia and coincidentally near the proposed Paramount Theme Park at Cortado Alhambra. 😆 It was supposed to be open this summer but bureaucratic delays and arguments regarding St Javier airport have now postponed it’s operational opening.
      The government persuaded a company called Aena to build a second runway at St Javier airport very recently at a cost of millions and which is now obsolete with the building of the Corvera airport. The government now want to move all international traffic to Corvera and close St Javier.
      Not unnaturally Area seek compensation and have operational contracts at St Javier which they are playing hard ball to keep. The compensation offered in Area view is insufficient and plan to continue with their operations.

      Here is another massive waste of public funds. You just couldn’t make it up. 🙄

      http://www.murciatoday.com/more-desalinated-water-required-this-year-as-drought-threatens-._10986-a.html

    • #108219
      Anonymous
      Participant
    • #108305
      Anonymous
      Participant
    • #66006
      peterhun
      Participant

      ,,
      Budget Minister Cristobal Montoro said borrowings of 186.1 billion euros ($248 billion) this year will take the debt-to-GDP ratio to 79.8 percent from 68.5 percent in 2011, well above the EU 60 percent limit.

      ..

      http://news.yahoo.com/spanish-unemployment-hits-record-high-march-083205454.html

      Going into more detail during 2012 will be allocated to pension payments 37.1% of total State Budget 2012 (EUR 115 829 000 275 336 000 of total), the payment of unemployment benefits for 9.2 %, while another 10.5% will go to interest payments (28.848 million euros, equivalent to 2.7% of GDP, this being such an amount exceeding the total cut of the State Budget for 2012 encryption in eur 27,300 million). In all these three items account for only 56.8% of total State Budget 2012.

      http://translate.google.com/translate?sl=auto&tl=en&js=n&prev=_t&hl=en&ie=UTF-8&layout=2&eotf=1&u=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.gurusblog.com%2Farchives%2Fpresupuestos-estado-2012-pensiones-desempleo%2F03%2F04%2F2012%2F%3Futm_source%3Dfeedburner%26utm_medium%3Dfeed%26utm_campaign%3DFeed%253A%2Bgurusblog%252FocIz%2B%2528GurusBlog.com%2529&act=url

    • #108312
      Anonymous
      Participant

      THERE’S PAIN IN SPAIN AND IT WILL BE FELT FAR AND WIDE
      Daily Express

      AS Spain lurches deeper into financial crisis, millions of Britons risk getting sucked into the emergency.
      More than half a million Brits own homes in Spain; around 700,000 have retired there. British banks are heavily exposed to Spanish debt and millions of us will take our holidays in the Spanish sun.

      Spain may be holiday heaven but it is going through economic hell. It has Europe’s highest rate of unemployment at nearly 24 per cent while youth unemployment is 50 per cent.

      Go to full article

    • #108313
      logan
      Participant

      If this continues Britain will no longer need the EU and until other member states such as Spain wake up and realise the same the gloom will never be lifted for years.
      http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/debt-crisis-live/9184585/Debt-crisis-Live.html

    • #108318
      katy
      Blocked

      Spains crisis has been front page allover the world this week. Infact there is more info about it’s economy than the spanish papers. Took hours today for most of the spain media to report the rise in the bonds market and their failure to raise the sum required.

    • #108323
      Anonymous
      Participant

      Open Europe briefing: Spanish banks may be forced to seek eurozone bailout
      03 Apr 2012

      In a new briefing, Open Europe assesses the state of the Spanish economy in light of recent budget proposals, announced by the Spanish government in full today. Spain is not the “next Greece” – it remains a serious and diverse economy, with relatively good administration and infrastructure. However, the increasing exposure of its banks to potentially toxic loans, the difficulty in curbing Spanish regions’ spending and the risk of reforms not taking effect quickly enough, all raise serious questions as to whether the Spanish economy will make it through without some sort of external help.

      Open Europe’s Head of Economic Research Raoul Ruparel said,

      “One in five loans to the real estate and construction sectors held by Spanish banks is now potentially toxic, a situation which could explode if house prices continue to drop. It’s not at all clear that the Spanish state could afford to recapitalise its banks in the case of severe losses, meaning that banks may be forced to tap the eurozone bailout fund instead, shifting even more of the risk onto European taxpayers.”

      “The Spanish government deserves credit for the structural reforms that it has undertaken but further reforms are desperately needed, in particular on the labour market, if Spain wishes to have a sustainable future inside the eurozone.”

      Key Points

      – Given its size, the fate of the Spanish economy will also largely decide the fate of the euro. €80bn of €396bn (1/5) in loans that Spanish banks have made to the bust construction and real estate sectors are considered ‘doubtful’ and potentially toxic, meaning at serious risk of default, with the banks only holding €50bn in reserves to cover potential losses. Already dropping, house prices could potentially fall another 35%, meaning that Spanish banks will almost certainly face hefty losses as more households default on their mortgages.

      – In such a scenario, the Spanish state is unlikely to be able to afford to recapitalise its banks, meaning that the eurozone’s permanent bailout fund (the ESM) would have to step in, shifting the cost to eurozone taxpayers.

      – As domestic banks are currently the main buyers of Spanish government debt, this could also lead to major funding problems for Spain. The chances of a self-fulfilling bond run on Spanish debt would increase massively in this scenario, threatening to push the whole country into a full bailout.

      – Containing spending in the Spanish regions is also key to Spain rebalancing its books. The level of unpaid debt on the balance sheets of local and regional governments has risen by €10bn (38%) since the start of the crisis (now topping €36bn). This will likely be paid off by the central government, increasing the country’s debt and deficit.

      – Spain’s various reforms, particularly to the labour market, are welcome, but are themselves not enough to stop a bond run, as it will take time before they bite. The country’s long- term unemployment has now reached 9% of the economically active population, and youth unemployment reached 50.5% last month. This is threatening the long term productivity of the economy and whether Spanish society can sustain this level is unknown.

      A Spanish bailout is far from a foregone conclusion, but more work needs to be done to avoid one. Open Europe recommends:

      – Spanish banks double their provisions against souring loans and commit to thorough stress tests.

      – Strengthen labour market reforms, particularly to relieve the welfare burden on state finances, including: end wage and pension indexation to inflation, reduce size and duration of benefits, limit collective bargaining, reduce redundancy costs and improve the business climate.

      However, these reforms will only stand the test of time if they enjoy political buy-in across Spanish society and are seen as democratically legitimate, rather than being imposed from outside.

      Spanish banks could require a eurozone bailout
      In the new briefing published yesterday, the report* notes that Spanish banks currently hold €136bn in doubtful loans on their books, €80bn of which is to the bust real estate and construction sectors – all with only €50bn in provisions against losses. The report suggests that house prices in Spain have not fallen by enough and may still fall by 35%, to equal the adjustment seen in Ireland. This would cause banks to take significant losses on their loans to the real estate and construction sectors. Since Spanish banks are the main buyers of Spanish debt, this could lead to funding problems for the Spanish state. On his Telegraph blog, Mats Persson argues, “Spain is definitely not ‘the next Greece’ [but] in order to avoid prophecy becoming reality, Spanish banks should be required to at least double their provisions against souring loans at a time when there’s credit in the EU economy (mainly as a result of ECB financing) and relative calm”.

      The briefing also noted that curbing spending in the Spanish regions will be a major challenge and that the 44% of the deficit reduction that is meant to come from the regions is unrealistic. The report was covered by Zerohedge and cited by the Telegraph, Linkiesta, Wall Street Italia, Deutsche Mittelstands Nachrichten, FX Street and on the Telegraph and Guardian live blogs.

      Largest Spanish regions object to latest austerity package;
      El Mundo reports that Andalusia and Catalonia – Spain’s most populous regions – have criticised the cuts to public spending in Spanish regions proposed by the government as part of the austerity package, suggesting that they violate the regions’ statutes. Expansión notes that Spain is expected to spend around €29bn on interest payment on its debt this year – higher than the €27.3bn in budget cuts. Spain managed to sell €2.6bn of medium and long-term debt this morning, albeit at higher interest rates than in the previous auctions.

      *To read the report in full, please click here,

    • #108328
      logan
      Participant

      It’s a no brainer, bailout is inevitable, just a question of when. The late autumn probably. Spain cannot continue without help for much longer. 🙁

    • #108331
      katy
      Blocked

      Even Rajoy says they are in deep trouble, that coming from a Spaniard says it all!!

      Probably too big to bail out…remember that Spain has spent months borrowing to buy their own bonds so default means double the problem.

    • #108332
      logan
      Participant

      The benefits for countries who control their own economies and retain national currencies are now emerging. Despite the continued slow down in Europe and some dependence on the single market Britain seems to be slowly turning the corner.

      The Pound rallied to the highest level in two-weeks against the Euro this morning, rising through 1.2150, after a report in the UK showed that growth in services industries unexpectedly accelerated in March, while house prices increased by more-than-expected. The UK currency is trading higher against the majority of 16 most actively currencies before the Bank of England interest rates announcement at midday, as the gauge of services activity PMI increased to 55.3, from 53.8 in February.

      A level above 50 indicates growth and the report, in conjunction with positive manufacturing and construction figures earlier in the week, points to a recovery in the UK economy during the first quarter. It now seems increasingly likely that the UK will avoid a technical recession this year and the renewed sense of optimism has seen the Pound rally against the Euro, among other major currencies like the Australian Dollar and South African Rand.

      How long will it be before the German/French political dogma of a single European state wears too thin and member states say enough?

    • #108333
      DBMarcos99
      Participant

      Every cloud has a silver lining…

      If the market continues to exhibit a 10 year peak to trough cycle, we should see steady house price growth in Spain between 2013 and 2018

      http://www.ibtimes.com/articles/324404/20120405/property-outlook-for-spain-more-rosy-as-price-decline-slows.htm

      I don’t see prices starting to rise next year. But we’ll see… at the moment it’s great for prospective buyers.

    • #108334
      Anonymous
      Participant

      What is more important is if the rise in home prices depends on high inflation or not. I wouldn’t be surprised if home prices could rise in Spain in a ten year period maybee not in inflation adjusted numbers. What needs to happen for this is for them to leave the euro though or that the whole eurozone prints a lot of money which I doubt will happen. This current contraction in the general economy will last at least two more years. Housing prices can’t start to climb if it ain’t because of hyper inflation before the economy have started to pick up and usually it takes some time until the buyers gets back to action.

    • #108335
      logan
      Participant

      Marcos there is simply no basis whatsoever for that optimistic view, it’s pie in the sky.
      If as they maintain a decade cycle between peak and trough then 2017 is when values should return. That is a more realistic time frame. Then consider the terrible current state of the Spanish economy with banks that cannot lend, one of worst recessions in their history likely to last for years until the economy is restructured you may see articles such as this are just plain daft.
      Sales and marketing propaganda but as we see some folks actually believe it. That’s the point of propaganda of course it’s directed to those who want to believe it. 🙁

    • #108338
      Anonymous
      Participant

      @logan wrote:

      Marcos there is simply no basis whatsoever for that optimistic view, it’s pie in the sky.
      If as they maintain a decade cycle between peak and trough then 2017 is when values should return. That is a more realistic time frame. Then consider the terrible current state of the Spanish economy with banks that cannot lend, one of worst recessions in their history likely to last for years until the economy is restructured you may see articles such as this are just plain daft.
      Sales and marketing propaganda but as we see some folks actually believe it. That’s the point of propaganda of course it’s directed to those who want to believe it. 🙁

      I’m with you on this.

    • #108355
      Anonymous
      Participant

      Spain ‘headed towards’ 2013 financial crunch
      By David Williams (AFP) – 1 day ago
      MADRID — Spain, sucked back into the centre of the eurozone debt crisis, is headed towards a financial crunch in 2013 that may force it to seek international help, analysts warn.
      Alarm has spread on the financial markets over Spain’s rising public debt, bulging deficit, fragile banks and a slide into recession at a time of soaring unemployment.
      Investors pounced in the past week, forcing the government to pay higher borrowing costs at a bond auction and snapping up securities that pay out in the case of a default on sovereign debt.
      “Despite rising Spanish bond yields and bond market jitters in recent weeks, Spain is not in any immediate danger,” said IHS Global Insight economist Raj Badiani.
      Massive lending by the European Central Bank at rock bottom rates to banks in the eurozone had secured Spain’s liquidity and mitigated the impact of Spain’s economic and fiscal woes, he said.
      But greater danger lay ahead.
      “The risks are expected to intensify in 2013 with Spain battered by a crippling combination of a lingering economic downturn, challenging financing requirements, a labour market close to meltdown and a banking sector struggling to contain ever increasing troubled real-estate assets,” he warned.
      “Indeed, the continued tensions in the banking sector, resulting from the deteriorating quality of its real-estate assets and domestic government debt holdings, could prompt the need for additional capital injections from the state or external interventions.”
      Ultimately, the ECB could be forced to provide Spain with more protection than its current policy of buying government bonds on the market and offering cheap three-year loans to eurozone banks, Badiani said.
      The challenges facing Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy’s conservative government are daunting.
      It approved a 2012 budget on April 30 that includes 27 billion euros in spending cuts and tax increases, determined to meet its targets to slash the public deficit from a runaway 8.5 percent of annual economic output last year to 5.3 percent this year and just 3.0 percent in 2013.
      But analysts say the task of meeting those targets will just get harder as Spain enters recession and with official forecasts that the jobless rate will rise to 24.3 percent this year from 22.85 percent at the end of 2011.
      Large annual public deficits have rapidly pushed up the accumulated public debt, expected to rise to 79.8 percent of economic output this year from 68.5 in 2011.
      “Spain’s borrowing costs are up due to fears that recession will hinder deficit reduction,” said a report by Standard Chartered Global Research analysts Sarah Hewin and Thomas Costerg.
      The banking sector was vulnerable to losses on stricken real estate assets accumulated before the 2008 property bubble collapse, they warned, and it “may need a bailout to assist restructuring”.
      Edward Hugh, independent economist based in Barcelona, said international investors were convinced that Spain would need to restructure its debt at some point in the next 10 years.
      But the crisis could come sooner, he said, casting serious doubt on Madrid’s ability to meet its deficit-cutting target for 2013.
      “This could all come unstuck next year,” Hugh said.
      “I don’t think there is any real possibility they can get to three percent next year,” he added.
      “Secondly, the economy is going to be contracting next year. They are not going to be able to get unemployment down.”
      Hugh warned a crunch could even come this year as bond yields rise, saying it was still unclear how the government could finance its plans to recapitalise Spain’s banks.
      “I don’t see anything on the table that is going to turn this around,” Hugh said.
      “I don’t think we will see much in the way of growth in Spain in the next five years. We are going to have two years of recession right now, then at the best we can see two of years of timid growth and then we could have another recession,” he warned.
      Spain did not face an immediate collapse because the ECB would step in, Hugh added.
      “But this is not a situation with a way out. They have just let it all get too much and now it is in danger of getting out of hand.”

    • #108356
      Anonymous
      Participant

      Spain tires of penitence even amid the Lent processions
      Giles Tremlett in Madrid
      The Observer, Sunday 8 April 2012

      Austerity may seem to suit the mood as Spaniards prepare for Easter, but anger is growing over a bleak-looking future

      http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2012/apr/08/spain-tires-penitence-lent-processions

    • #108357
      logan
      Participant

      I think that piece says it all Mark. 🙁

    • #108367
      Anonymous
      Participant

      Mark,…..Interesting article from Guardian…which reflects the popular opinions of a lot of economic observers….however whilst I can see ‘some’ price reductions on resales, I don’t really see anything like a 25% price reduction and also nothing like -25% in the price of new builds…..certainly on www advertised properties.

      I am talking here about the popular end of the market…..Murcia, etc. Certainly in Catalonia I do not see any significant price reductions.

      The reality does not ( in many cases ) reflect the numbers proposed in the economic reviews & forecasts.

      Perhaps if the economy deteriorates further or a bail out becomes necessary we will then see the significant reductions reflecting what the economists are saying.

      John.

    • #108365
      Chopera
      Participant

      @JohnM wrote:

      Mark,…..Interesting article from Guardian…which reflects the popular opinions of a lot of economic observers….however whilst I can see ‘some’ price reductions on resales, I don’t really see anything like a 25% price reduction and also nothing like -25% in the price of new builds…..certainly on www advertised properties.

      I am talking here about the popular end of the market…..Murcia, etc. Certainly in Catalonia I do not see any significant price reductions.

      The reality does not ( in many cases ) reflect the numbers proposed in the economic reviews & forecasts.

      Perhaps if the economy deteriorates further or a bail out becomes necessary we will then see the significant reductions reflecting what the economists are saying.

      John.

      We had a thread on this a while back where I think we came to the conclusion that prices have already dropped by about 30% from peak, although of course it does depend on the area. The problem is that there isn’t any reliable data. In Madrid I’m seeing falls of 50% from peak in some areas, less than that in others. I have a Spanish friend trying to sell a property he bought in Denia in 2005. He reckons the market there is down 30% – but he still hasn’t been able to sell. Advertised prices really don’t mean anything – especially if a property has sat on the market at the same price for years on end, and double-especially if it is a new build that has been repossessed by a bank.

    • #108368
      logan
      Participant

      In accessing how far property prices have yet to fall in Spain you need to consider why they were so grossly inflated in the last decade or more.
      Those reasons, cause and effect have been well documented on here and debated. However the point is they have now all disappeared into the mist and in the spring of 2012 Spain is a very different place.
      In a market economy when that happens prices revert to a level where buying and selling will restart. It matter not that people are in negative equity, or how much the price is discounted, values are what someone will pay under the prevailing circumstances.
      For a variety of reasons I believe Spanish property now needs to revert to mid nineties levels or even further back. That percentage is probably around 50-60% from peak, so another 30% reduction is more than likely in the coming 2 years.

    • #108370
      kgpoc
      Participant

      Logan – right on.. Here forward there are no false ‘inflators’ (easy money, easy gov contracts, etc, etc) this will revert back to a market based pricing.

      It has been a while, so here is my personal/formulated/current take: I think this place will drop further than everyone is thinking (+5 years), people always ask for a bottom. I think it is going to go down some more, stabilize for a little while and then go down again. I think the best example of this is Japan, the Nikkei in 1990 was 39,000 and now is 9,500, -75% (not even adjusted for inflation, if we add that in it would be -85%). Spain has dug itself into a similar hole to the one the Japanese did by allowing the banks to slowly bring down their debt. To top it off are the demographics, poor job future and entitlement programs.

    • #108390
      logan
      Participant

      Here is an interesting article exposing the lack of will among Spanish regions to have their spending brought under control. I have written many times before on here about how regional government spending in Spain has been profligate and wasteful for so long.

      http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2012/apr/13/andalucia-eurozone-crisis-spanish-regions

    • #108396
      Chris M
      Participant

      Just know everyone is going to really like this link which was sent to me this morning.

      http://www.thesun.co.uk/sol/homepage/features/4257682/48-of-Brits-want-to-get-out-of-Britain-says-new-Sun-survey.html

    • #108397
      angie
      Blocked

      I love that article Chris, it’s true that so many Brits want to leave the UK, but then it’s also true that so many Brits want to leave Spain, Turkey, Cyprus, Bulgaria and other countries they thought would offer them a better lifestyle.

      So many Brits including us were so fed up with the UK and still are, but they move to these distant shores far away from friends and family, different cultures and languages, very often hot countries with what were buoyant property markets, legal contracts they don’t understand, higher cost of living than they thought, no NHS, and then find it’s all ok for a while, maybe a year or two, and then they start to miss Ol Blighty and want to return to see the kids and grandchildren etc. So they hit the cheaper booze as the golf is too expensive and no work to do as unemployment is so high:lol:

      Then comes the rub, they find they can’t sell their one of thousands of look-a-like properties, can’t get anywhere near their money back, often get tucked up if they do sell and end up ‘House trapped in the Sun’ as so many are, worse still if you’re stuck in Bulgaria 😆

      Good old Sun newspaper, they’re not wrong, because it’s still the perpetual dream of many and will continue to be so and so the gravy train of hope and despair rumbles on 🙄

    • #108398
      logan
      Participant

      “We are such stuff as dreams are made on, and our little life, is rounded with a sleep.”
      That quote from Shakespeare’s The Tempest, sums it up. Dreams are needed to brighten our days they need be kept in their place otherwise they can morph into nightmares.

      The markets savaged Spain this week. Bond yields up, Ibex down. Bailout looms but is there enough in the EU kitty? I think not. 😕
      http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/comment/liamhalligan/9204702/Eurozone-crisis-roars-back-to-savage-Spain.html

    • #108401
      katy
      Blocked

      6% of the 48% who wants to leave are making plans 😆 I wonder how many of the figure are on benefits etc. One forum has a returning to the UK section and there are always lots returning from all over the world. We see the very same survey every few months with the same result, wonder how many actually leave 😉

      Anyway there are no shortage of properties on the Costas for them to buy, they just need to figure out how to earn a living when they arrive with the kids.

    • #108403
      angie
      Blocked

      We know roughly a dozen British families, and singles living in the Southern Costas at present or who own 2nd homes there, out of the 22 people, only one wants to stay in Spain, and he has a wife who is resigned but desperate really to return to the UK. The others who want to return or sell their 2nd homes just cannot sell either because they want too much/and or their money back, or they are one of 100’s of similar properties in what are now run down localities, you know, graffiti, rubbish blowing around, nothing to do, some with golf course views with skeletal unfinished projects around them, a higher risk of crime etc etc A few of these are in up-market locations but still their properties won’t sell.

      It’s been often said, what artists’ impressions of wonderful projects they thought they were buying into, have now turned into urban unfinished nightmares for them. 🙄

    • #108414
      Anonymous
      Participant

      The Spanish hangover.

      For those why can manage the rather dry, analytical style of this article. It outlines very clearly why the falls in the Spanish housing market will continue for many years to come.

      http://www.voxeu.org/index.php?q=node%2F7876

    • #108415
      logan
      Participant

      Interesting article Brianc_li. This conclusion is parallel to many of the posts made previously on here. The markets have finally reached the same conclusion. Spain’s banks are now dependent on cheap ECB cash to keep them afloat. Enormous sums have been lent in recent months. How long that particular tap will continue to flow is anyone’s guess.

      All in all, it appears that Spain has not yet fully adjusted to the collapse of its enormous housing bubble, which propelled its economy on an unsustainable path until 2008. House prices have to fall further, the construction sector has to shrink further, and the reallocation of labour towards exportables is slowed down by a labour market that prevents wages from falling quickly enough.

      I personally believe Spain now cannot recover it’s economy without substantial aid from the EFSF.

    • #108416
      Anonymous
      Participant

      From today’s Telegraph:

      Why a visit to the eurozone doctor won’t relieve the pain in Spain

      At the heart of the problem is the Spanish property situation. You might not be far wrong if you were to argue that the Spanish property boom and bust led to the eventual unravelling of the Eurozone. Time will tell.

      From here on the news is going to be all Spain all the time, for a while at least. 😯

    • #108419
      GarySFBCN
      Participant

      Austerity for Spain is insanity according to today’s New York Times:

      Europe’s Economic Suicide

      http://www.nytimes.com/2012/04/16/opinion/krugman-europes-economic-suicide.html?_r=1&emc=tnt&tntemail1=y

    • #108421
      Anonymous
      Participant

      @GarySFBCN wrote:

      Austerity for Spain is insanity according to today’s New York Times:

      Europe’s Economic Suicide

      http://www.nytimes.com/2012/04/16/opinion/krugman-europes-economic-suicide.html?_r=1&emc=tnt&tntemail1=y

      Krugman is not and idiot but he has pushed himself into a corner with the never ending mantra of that spending is the only way to get out of a crisis. He must know that his thoughts/ideas have caused extreme problems all around the world.

      By using fiat money Krugman wants to steal money from all the people that have behaved responsible by printing more money “increasing inflation” causing the price of all products to go up. It’s insane that people dont react to things like this… it’s basicly stealing money from those that never took part of the problem and handing it over to those that behaved like idiots by keeping interests rates artificially low though “subsidies” inflation will take up steam. He also wants the goverment to make bad investment by artificially creating new projects to bolster the economy in short term but pushing the costs to the future generation. He prescribes economic advice that will save the politicians and not the people. We can’t let these fraudsters do this.

      Don’t get me wrong it’s an easy way out but it’s a morally wrong way and it will cause more problems in the near future. Just look at which alarming speeds new crisis turn up. After the IT-bubble they started to fund the next bubble and it will keep on going quicker and quicker. It’s like throwing good money after bad money.

      It hurts trying to pay for your misstake but at least he should be honest about what his alternative leads too. Sadly most people are to ignorant to understand that it’s the hard working people that will loose out the most by this and not the big banks.

      It feels like I’m watching the whole western world go up in smoke but not many else understands what is happening.

    • #108423
      GarySFBCN
      Participant

      Krugman is not and idiot but he has pushed himself into a corner with the never ending mantra of that spending is the only way to get out of a crisis. He must know that his thoughts/ideas have caused extreme problems all around the world.

      You are missing the point. The biggest problem in Spain is unemployment. Nowhere in the world has the employment rate increased with austerity measures. Krugman is not discussing the global crisis nor a global solution.

      You talk of morals. Where were those morals when financial institutions were creating “products” that were borderline criminal in intent? Now is not the time for morals unless we want to see the CEOs of every major financial institution in jail, which is, morally, where they belong.

      Taking money back from the people who stole it is not stealing. It is restitution.

      I am not supporting any major policy of redistribution of wealth. But not asking those who can easily and painlessly absorb some financial contraction while punishing masses of people who have no culpability at all in the crisis is immoral. And it will lead to revolution.

    • #108424
      Chopera
      Participant

      @Ardun wrote:

      @GarySFBCN wrote:

      Austerity for Spain is insanity according to today’s New York Times:

      Europe’s Economic Suicide

      http://www.nytimes.com/2012/04/16/opinion/krugman-europes-economic-suicide.html?_r=1&emc=tnt&tntemail1=y

      Krugman is not and idiot but he has pushed himself into a corner with the never ending mantra of that spending is the only way to get out of a crisis. He must know that his thoughts/ideas have caused extreme problems all around the world.

      By using fiat money Krugman wants to steal money from all the people that have behaved responsible by printing more money “increasing inflation” causing the price of all products to go up. It’s insane that people dont react to things like this… it’s basicly stealing money from those that never took part of the problem and handing it over to those that behaved like idiots by keeping interests rates artificially low though “subsidies” inflation will take up steam. He also wants the goverment to make bad investment by artificially creating new projects to bolster the economy in short term but pushing the costs to the future generation. He prescribes economic advice that will save the politicians and not the people. We can’t let these fraudsters do this.

      Don’t get me wrong it’s an easy way out but it’s a morally wrong way and it will cause more problems in the near future. Just look at which alarming speeds new crisis turn up. After the IT-bubble they started to fund the next bubble and it will keep on going quicker and quicker. It’s like throwing good money after bad money.

      It hurts trying to pay for your misstake but at least he should be honest about what his alternative leads too. Sadly most people are to ignorant to understand that it’s the hard working people that will loose out the most by this and not the big banks.

      It feels like I’m watching the whole western world go up in smoke but not many else understands what is happening.

      To defend Krugman (I don’t entirely agree with him, but I have a lot of respect for him) I’d argue that there is no reason why savers should expect a currency to store value in the long run. It is a means of tender, a way of getting liquidity into the system. Nothing more. If someone has say $1000 and they want to protect its value then they should be encouraged to invest that money in the economy, buy something, buy shares, anything – anything except leave it in a bank to let idiot bankers take risks with it and screw everyone over.

      The main problem with letting a currency lose its value is that inflation might get out of control – if inflation gets too high people lose faith in the currency, it becomes more expensive to borrow and you end up in an inflationary spiral and ultimately hyper-inflation when the currency stops being used as a means of tender. But I see no moral reason to protect the value of cash savings – inflation only robs from those who refuse to invest in the economy. And besides, I think the immediate problem is deflation.

      The main problem I have with most of the neo-keynesian arguments is that they demand higher public sector spending in particular. Large public sectors are a luxury that are expensive to maintain and, once there, very hard to get rid of. During deflationary recessions, it would be better if the government got monetary stimulus into the economy through private sector contracts (such as improvements to infrastructure). Once the recession is over it is much easier to cancel a private contract and get the money out of the system than to start laying off public sector workers.

    • #108425
      Anonymous
      Participant

      @Chopera wrote:

      To defend Krugman (I don’t entirely agree with him, but I have a lot of respect for him) I’d argue that there is no reason why savers should expect a currency to store value in the long run. It is a means of tender, a way of getting liquidity into the system. Nothing more. If someone has say $1000 and they want to protect its value then they should be encouraged to invest that money in the economy, buy something, buy shares, anything – anything except leave it in a bank to let idiot bankers take risks with it and screw everyone over.

      The main problem with letting a currency lose its value is that inflation might get out of control – if inflation gets too high people lose faith in the currency, it becomes more expensive to borrow and you end up in an inflationary spiral and ultimately hyper-inflation when the currency stops being used as a means of tender. But I see no moral reason to protect the value of cash savings – inflation only robs from those who refuse to invest in the economy. And besides, I think the immediate problem is deflation.

      The main problem I have with most of the neo-keynesian arguments is that they demand higher public sector spending in particular. Large public sectors are a luxury that are expensive to maintain and, once there, very hard to get rid of. During deflationary recessions, it would be better if the government got monetary stimulus into the economy through private sector contracts (such as improvements to infrastructure). Once the recession is over it is much easier to cancel a private contract and get the money out of the system than to start laying off public sector workers.

      Too true. The public sector tends to be well organised, and always takes care of producer interests first, just like any other group looking after number one. Politicians don’t dare take it on so it gets bigger and bigger and more and more expensive, and eventually it becomes unsustainable. The best way to protect an affordable welfare state is to ensure the public sector doesn’t grow to big and powerful. Take France. It now can’t afford its welfare state and it’s only a matter of time before reality takes over.

    • #108426
      Anonymous
      Participant

      @GarySFBCN wrote:

      Krugman is not and idiot but he has pushed himself into a corner with the never ending mantra of that spending is the only way to get out of a crisis. He must know that his thoughts/ideas have caused extreme problems all around the world.

      You are missing the point. The biggest problem in Spain is unemployment. Nowhere in the world has the employment rate increased with austerity measures. Krugman is not discussing the global crisis nor a global solution.

      You talk of morals. Where were those morals when financial institutions were creating “products” that were borderline criminal in intent? Now is not the time for morals unless we want to see the CEOs of every major financial institution in jail, which is, morally, where they belong.

      Taking money back from the people who stole it is not stealing. It is restitution.

      I am not supporting any major policy of redistribution of wealth. But not asking those who can easily and painlessly absorb some financial contraction while punishing masses of people who have no culpability at all in the crisis is immoral. And it will lead to revolution.

      Banks are basicly owned by the states “socialised losses and privatised profits” in the sense that when it goes wrong the population gets to pay for it. It’s stupid I know and I honestly thing they and the politicians should be prosecuted for such a faulty system.

      Unemployment not by choice is just a sign that something is wrong in the economic system. Spending more money on crap now will only bring about new problems.

      You are missing the point that at the same time as you speed up inflation “print more money” peoples loans will become less of a burden and this burden will be distributed to everyone…. even the people not taking part of his speculative bubble. Normally the borrowers needs to pay for this by higher interest rates but not when the rates are held artificially low. This is not about supporting banks. It’s morally wrong it’s a simple as that. Why would anyone invest into such a system with their own money when they know they will be cheated in it.

      This is about a global crisis and Spain is just one of the countries that has more problems then the others. Overinvestment because of goverments around the world have made credits to cheap for to long.

      Listen to what happened when the politicians tried to meddle with the economy under the great depression. Unemployment actually went up. Short term employment can become better but it’s only pushing it forward and increasing the problem for future generations.. It actually stopped when the war started so they could move people from stupid goverment jobs into the army and then when it ended they didn’t go back to them. The war was not a good economic decision in itself but the result was that those stupid jobs dissapeared after the war. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AQQon4tjlSA

      Yes printing money causes inflation but in this current system that the western world has chosen they control inflation by keeping a certain amount of the population unemployed “trade unions keeping up wage demands, government regulation etc”. In todays system to many people being employed would mean to high inflation. So the more money we want to print and also keep the inflation down we need to keep more people unemployed. This is a totally morally wrong system which means that people can’t choose freely if they want to work or not.

      By giving the goverments the power of the monetary system we are basicly telling them to screw us. They will do what in shortterm will help them in their elections. The big majority of voters are to stupid to understand what their policies leads to.

      Krugman knows that he is out in muddy waters but he is all in and desperate. His whole life is built around this view he has together with most other keynesianist. It’s like being religious and finding out your god doesn’t exist.

    • #108443
      peterhun
      Participant
    • #108445
      Anonymous
      Participant

      Lots of news today. As I have said before it’s going to be all Spain for a while now:

      http://www.nytimes.com/2012/04/19/business/global/european-rescue-fund-may-face-biggest-test-yet.html?_r=1

      http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/04/18/spain-banks-idUSL6E8FICDV20120418

      Spain’s government, which spooked markets last month by backtracking on this year’s budget deficit target, has repeatedly ruled out seeking a bailout and says its lenders can manage without help.

      They so self-evidently can’t!

      http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052702303513404577351554212260294.html

      http://www.iol.co.za/business/business-news/rescue-likely-for-spanish-banks-1.1279263

      Repossessed Spanish homes fall in value (FT)

      Fitch estimates that there is an overhang of unsold homes in Spain of more than 1m. These include unsold newly built homes, properties repossessed by banks or properties where owners have taken out bridge loans but were unable to sell the first property.

      At the peak of the housing boom in 2006 there were more than 100,000 purchase agreements of new properties at notary a month. By September last year, there were just 25,000.
      Carlos Masip, Madrid-based director at Fitch, said: “If we view the market today we believe that there will continue to be a downward pressure on property prices. Home prices are still unaffordable for many when compared to income levels, there is a short supply of credit and a huge overhang of unsold properties.”

      “We believe the sooner that house prices correct the better. The construction sector can’t gain momentum until empty properties are sold. A recovery in the construction sector will be better for the overall Spanish economy,” he said.

    • #108447
      peterhun
      Participant

      If you have faith in chartism: I’d guess another 2-3 years before the peak of bad debts with a high of 12%.

    • #108448
      Anonymous
      Participant

      @peterhun wrote:

      http://ftalphaville.ft.com/bl/2012/04/19/966211/spains-ever-growing-non-performing-loans/?updatedcontent=1

      Impressive how the unemployment figures follows that “bad loans” graph.

    • #108450
      logan
      Participant

      All governments recently without exception have all made statements that they don’t need a bailout only to request one later on.
      I would not put any faith in government statements they are simply trying to calm the bond markets.

    • #108454
      Anonymous
      Participant

      It says the boom peak was 2006 but I noticed, in our block of flats and town anyway, that the builders kept on building and it was nearly all Moroccan and Ecudorian people buying overpriced flats with 130% mortgages. They knew that they could scrape together 1000 euros a month between a couple or two brothers/sisters etc. and that the bank would trip over themselves to give them the mortgage without any deposit and also ‘cash’ to buy ‘furniture’. I’ve heard it endlessly here that they then sent that cash back home to build a house, or buy land and cows apparently in Ecuador, and then when things got bad they would just hand the keys back and rent at the new lower rental prices. They’ve won because they don’t care if the bank chases them, chase them for what? They can go back home and live in their now free house/farm or business? I guess they would only worry that it would affect them if the Spanish Gov. put holds on future pensions which lots are looking forward to receiving in their home countries in years time.

      So, who are going to buy these empty properties? The Spanish can’t afford to, or have one anyway. The British have been put right off, as have the Germans, Dutch etc. The banks won’t lend to the immigrants as (I hope!) their have learnt their lesson and won’t just throw money at anyone walking off the street just for a bit of commission.

      Who will buy the empty properties and who will they start building them for to kick start the construction industry???

    • #108455
      logan
      Participant

      @itsme wrote:

      Who will buy the empty properties and who will they start building them for to kick start the construction industry???

      The answer is no one. At least in the next decade.

      The banks with the encouragement of the government are now letting them out at social housing levels to the homeless.
      The debts are written down by the institutions who now pay less tax. Cheap loans from the ECB helps them survive until they are re-capitalised. Weak lenders have been merged into larger entities.

      The only real individual losers are those who bought at the top of the market, continue to pay their negative equity loans and cash buyers who have suffered serious capital loss which is unlikely ever to be recovered for decades.

      That’s the price you pay in risk investment.

    • #108456
      Anonymous
      Participant

      @itsme wrote:

      Who will buy the empty properties and who will they start building them for to kick start the construction industry???

      The properties will be bought for the right price, same as in USA. My prediction is that the low price will be 5k-10K for apartments in undesirable areas and about 25-30K for more desirable area.

      Then the apartments will be rentable for around 100-150 Euros per month, plus utilities.

      Of course very desirable areas won’t see that decrease.

    • #108457
      Anonymous
      Participant

      by who though? Youngsters I guess? Those of our age (mid 30’s) or a bit younger have already signed up for our lifetime to a big mortgage.

      I guess those lucky enough to have dumped their previous high cost place? I know a couple who handed the keys back to their duplex and their parents then paid peanuts for another one. Lucky them.

      Or else everyone is going to buy to let and rent out to….. all the immigrants who handed their keys back to the banks?

      So, I agree that the prices then might be right but who is out there to pay? Maybe in a fantastic beach resort but the thousands and thousands of flats in towns (such as ours) are going to be empty for years/decades?? Why don’t they just bite the bullet and knock down 50% of the empty blocks and create a bit of demand rather than excess? Make the banks and constructors who gained so much in the boom pay for their errors?

    • #108459
      Anonymous
      Participant

      @itsme wrote:

      by who though? Youngsters I guess? Those of our age (mid 30’s) or a bit younger have already signed up for our lifetime to a big mortgage.

      I guess those lucky enough to have dumped their previous high cost place? I know a couple who handed the keys back to their duplex and their parents then paid peanuts for another one. Lucky them.

      Or else everyone is going to buy to let and rent out to….. all the immigrants who handed their keys back to the banks?

      So, I agree that the prices then might be right but who is out there to pay? Maybe in a fantastic beach resort but the thousands and thousands of flats in towns (such as ours) are going to be empty for years/decades?? Why don’t they just bite the bullet and knock down 50% of the empty blocks and create a bit of demand rather than excess? Make the banks and constructors who gained so much in the boom pay for their errors?

      I and a couple of friends actually thought about buying a smaller complex and using it for elder care/retirement home for scandinavians. It would be financed by tax money from our home country. The costs would be about half what they would be here so it would fetch us ok profits. Not totally turned the idea down so far but we ran into problems with the tax financing.

      You must understand that some people never got involved in the spanish market so they don’t have the same financial limitations… I mostly by luck to be honest. It only comes down to price. The US handled it better with a quick downturn and then people started buying again.

    • #108463
      Anonymous
      Participant

      I had the idea of an old persons residency here.

      I spoke to the Mayor’s sister who lives across the road from our block (and who also owns a flat in the block) about her asking her brothers friends in high places if they could invest in the empty flats in the block to turn into flats for older people.

      Here if someone doesn’t have family to look after them in old age they go to the Church/Nuns, and hand over all their property/land to the church. I pitched it that the Gov. paying 400 euros per month for home help could go towards the rent of these elderly people. Short term rentals as they aren’t going to be around forever, the block has wheelchair access, a lift and one flat could be used by two nurses on 12 hour shifts each. Add an alarm to each and it’s a residency for oldies who have lived in this town all their lives but since their children moved away in the 1960/70/80/90’s or whatever they have the choice to move to where their children are for care or stay in their home town.

      She laughed at me. It’s going to take a long time for a lot of people here to suss out the reality of the situation. Let them keep giving their money to the church then….

      I personally think it’s a great idea for Spain. Empty estates of houses turned into towns for oldies… let them live out their last years in the warm sun, play Elvis Presley at full blast, drink wine for their health. If I won the lottery i’d fund it…..

      It would help with employment as they would need nurses, home helpers, cooks, gardeners, physios etc. The world is ageing so it makes sense that it’s going to be big business. Let those who choose to heat or eat have some quality of life in Spain.

    • #108469
      Chopera
      Participant

      Following on from Santander/Seseña, it looks like Sabadell have managed to sell hundreds of flats rather quickly by that same genius marketing trick of dropping the prices (who’d have thunk it?)

      http://www.lasprovincias.es/v/20120417/economia/sabadell-vende-canet-apartamentos-20120417.html

    • #108471
      katy
      Blocked

      They must be crazy! looks like a 1960 hotel in Torremolinos. How can a family live in 50 sq metros 😯

    • #108472
      Anonymous
      Participant

      I doubt buyers were after main homes. More like holiday homes. Typical product for local buyers, who spend their holidays on the beach, in the bar, or dando un paseo (not cooped up in 50m2, where they go just to sleep and change). And they don’t care what it looks like from the outside.

    • #108482
      Anonymous
      Participant

      http://youtu.be/N7P2ExRF3GQ

      Hope you can view this, ‘Espanistan’ video. How true.

    • #108520
      Anonymous
      Participant
    • #108525
      katy
      Blocked
    • #108549
      logan
      Participant

      From today’s FT:- What went wrong with Spain?

      When they go out of business, the shopkeepers of Montijo treat their premises in different ways. Some whitewash the plate-glass windows from the inside. Others cover them with sheets of old newspapers. A few attach “For Sale” or “For Rent” signs.
      But many brick up the whole frontage in the expectation of a long wait.
      More
      “There’s no work in this bloody town,” says Edgar Rodríguez, a 19-year-old unemployed man who says his family survives thanks only to an inheritance from his late grandmother. He is cadging coins from passers-by in the Plaza de España, the town centre.
      One young couple has taped to the square’s fountain a photocopied offer to housesit for anyone who will give them wine and bread. At the town hall opposite, the municipal noticeboard shows the exam results of those seeking one of 19 “work experience” jobs as temporary cleaners; there were 381 applicants.

      Montijo – a normal, medium-sized town complete with a family of storks nesting on the roof of its 16th-century main church – is in the depths of an economic depression that reflects much of what went wrong with the country since the construction and property bubble began to deflate five years ago.

      The town is in Extremadura, Spain’s poorest region that borders Portugal to the west. Of the municipality’s population of more than 16,000, a total of 3,160, or about 30 per cent of the workforce, are now unemployed. Among urban areas, Montijo has one of the worst jobless rates in Spain, a country that this week officially entered its second recession since 2009. The national economy is expected to shrink about 1.7 per cent this year.

      Mr Rodríguez blames immigrants – “Romanians and blacks” – for taking nearby farm jobs from Spaniards, although he admits philosophically: “They work lots of hours for little money. We want to work fewer hours and earn lots of money.”

      Other residents of Montijo, however, say the real problems with the local economy have been its excessive dependence on construction and the ease with which inhabitants could live beyond their means in the decade of cheap credit up to 2007.

      “We did live above our means in the 1990s and 2000s,” says Manuel Gómez, a 42-year-old engineer and local leader of the opposition Socialist party. “A bank would say to someone with a salary of €1,000 a month, ‘Don’t worry, you can have the car and the house’, even if that meant taking €800 a month of their wages.”

      He adds: “The crisis did two things: it completely shattered the construction sector, and it meant that families did not spend; they saved all they could. So all the people in the construction sector lost their jobs and then small businesses started to close.”

      How Montijo will escape this vicious circle is unclear, especially given Extremadura’s dependence on financial transfers from richer parts of Spain and nationwide austerity measures designed to meet the European Union’s deficit reduction targets.

      Julian Herrera Ardila, a local businessman and chairman of Grupo Herrera, which makes prefabricated concrete structures, thinks he may have part of the answer.
      He employs only about 80 people now, down from 475 in what he calls “the golden age of construction” when he had offices across Spain and Portugal. But he has been negotiating contracts to manufacture and sell prefabricated homes in new markets from Latin America to Asia.
      Other businesses in Extremadura, including producers of olive oil and cured ham, are also targeting new export markets, but no one believes such efforts can quickly fill the gap.
      Juan Antonio Delgado, a Roman Catholic priest in Montijo, says Caritas, the church’s charitable arm, is helping some 300 people, about a quarter of them foreign immigrants, with food handouts. He also says people in this part of Extremadura can grow food in their back yards, and he sees a positive side to the realisation that they can live differently from how they did during the “fictitious boom” of the property bubble.

      But young people are emigrating abroad and to other parts of Spain, just as their parents did during the era of much greater poverty after the second world war. This time, however, they have benefited from a modern education.
      “People are leaving again, to Germany, even to Chile,” says Mr Delgado. “But the earlier wave was manual labour. Now it’s people with qualifications.”

    • #108553
      Anonymous
      Participant

      There are now 1.7 million households in Spain – families – without any income whatsoever.

      This is completely unsustainable. At some point it explodes.

    • #108560
      katy
      Blocked

      Didn’t someone post that investment in Spain had risen 😕

    • #108568
      Chris M
      Participant

      @mark wrote:

      There are now 1.7 million households in Spain – families – without any income whatsoever.
      This is completely unsustainable. At some point it explodes.

      I met a young Mother of two infants the other day here, her husband has gone and sends no support whatsoever, and she basically recieves it seems only some €400 in support per month only from the Government and had to have the Church help her to get this resumed having moved province.

      Family / Friends are the only people that are keeping her and her children together, fed and clothed with a roof over their heads. She has no housing or child benefit to fall back on.

      I am aghast actually, that in the UK we literally pay millions of people to stay at home, and yes here in Spain when the benefits an individual is entitled to are gone, then you stand alone it seems.

      This young lady, in the UK, in fact I advised if she travelled to the UK tomorrow, would receive Housing Benefit to pay for her accomodation, help and support with furnishings etc, free schooling and other support with the kids, and then funds not only for her but the children also. She would in fact be wholly protected, secure and be given all the basics with which to start rebuilding her life.

      Here in Spain, her benefit allowance Paro has run dry, she gets nothing it seems. Who has it right? Spain where there is then in effect no dependence on a welfare state once you are past a particular point, or the UK where there are millions who are paid to sit at home?

      There are plenty of people who still have exceptional benefits from the Paro as a result of having worked for several years lets say, but am flabbergasted myself to find what happens here when your state benefits expire.

      And yep, I have to say am very worried about that. Makes me happy though as a UK resident now, that my taxes take care of people so vulnerable, even though there may be many undeserving, you wouldn’t wish her plight on anyone. And I am ashamed to say, that I simply didn’t know this was the case having lived here also for 20 years.

    • #108569
      katy
      Blocked

      I would like to see a benefits system somewhere between the two countries. Genuine people who have fell on hard times should be helped. I don’t like the UK system where anyone can enter the country from Europe and get housing benefit etc. or overgenerous benefits which do not encourage families with a few kids to take a low paid job. On the other hand I don’t think the Spanish system of someone who has been out of work receiving nothing. There was a report in the Spanish news yesterday of a pensioner whose pension was the only income for a family of ten.

    • #108570
      logan
      Participant

      The principle problem with the extent of welfare benefits in the UK is it destroys incentive. People can survive on a certain level and begin to accept that life style as a permanent state. Never for one moment considering others have to fund it from their hard work and effort.

      In the UK it’s completely out of proportion to the original aim of the welfare state.

      In Spain welfare payments directly reflect the wealth of the country and the levels of national income. The problem at the moment is the economy has fallen off a cliff and no matter how strong the incentive of the individual, it comes to nothing.

      I really fear for the future of Spain and the Spanish people.

    • #108572
      katy
      Blocked

      @katy wrote:

      Darren McAnthony in the Marbella court today.

      http://www.diariosur.es/20120425/local/marbellaestepona/declaran-marbella-seis-exdirectivos-201204251518.html

      Victims in court on youtube

    • #108574
      angie
      Blocked

      It will be interesting to hear the outcome of this case which I believe is just for stolen furniture deposits for furniture packages not supplied.

      A much larger case I think is being prepared by those who say they were mis-sold properties in Spain and other countries and this will come later in the year. 😉

    • #108576
      Anonymous
      Participant
    • #108577
      logan
      Participant

      Here is the foundation in the article of so much more misery to come in future years. Talk about blood from stones 👿 :-
      Quote:
      Congress has rejected proposals that would allow borrowers unable to meet mortgage repayments to cancel their debt by handing over the keys to the property to the lender, an approach permitted in the United States.

    • #108586
      Anonymous
      Participant

      Exactly, those who are tied to their mortgages because otherwise the banks will evict their parents in their retirement have to pay.

      Others, ie, mainly the immigrants who bought at the end of the boom with 100% mortgages, can walk (or take a plane) away.

      Nice one PP. Look after the banks rather than your people. I think I read that 90% of mortgage holders don’t meet the criteria for Dacion en Pago anyway?

      Today I chatted nicely to a young couple looking to buy in our block. Lucky them as they are going to buy in cash, for 25,000 euros. We’ll keep paying our 108,000 euros off in 23 years……..

    • #108599
      Anonymous
      Participant

      Yeah things like that really annoys me too. I can understand that one can’t help when people loose money but then the same should apply to big business. Let them fold and don’t bail them out. It would also mean a greater ability for it’s customers to make deals with the company taking the banks over

    • #109125
      Anonymous
      Participant
    • #108925
      Anonymous
      Participant
    • #109132
      angie
      Blocked

      Some of those who posted their comments on that article are deluded souls who bought pre-boom and now live in outdated properties, pretending their properties have not fallen in price. If Greece and Spain exit the Euro, their properties could bomb.

      I’ve met lots of such people who have urbanisation and other problems surrounding them, unfinished developments, noise from dogs and other residents, little income, and they pretend there is not a problem and that they are happy in the sun, but they would move back if they could. You have to feel sorry for them.

      So many unsold new and resale homes, high completion costs, poor exchange rates for Brits, Eurozone worries etc etc make it highly unsafe for Brits to buy in Spain now 🙄

    • #108932
      angie
      Blocked

      Some of those who posted their comments on that article are deluded souls who bought pre-boom and now live in outdated properties, pretending their properties have not fallen in price. If Greece and Spain exit the Euro, their properties could bomb.

      I’ve met lots of such people who have urbanisation and other problems surrounding them, unfinished developments, noise from dogs and other residents, little income, and they pretend there is not a problem and that they are happy in the sun, but they would move back if they could. You have to feel sorry for them.

      So many unsold new and resale homes, high completion costs, poor exchange rates for Brits, Eurozone worries etc etc make it highly unsafe for Brits to buy in Spain now 🙄

    • #109133
      DBMarcos99
      Participant

      So many unsold new and resale homes, high completion costs, poor exchange rates for Brits, Eurozone worries etc etc make it highly unsafe for Brits to buy in Spain now

      Lower prices and the increasing purchase power of the pound make it an attractive time to buy in Spain, if it’s a place to live in, surely?

      I like the comment on this link (although they may find they end up spending on air con what they save on heating)

      http://www.thespanishbrick.com/2012/property-news-and-views/homeowners-can-spend-around-e-2188-annually-because-of-all-of-the-basic-fees/2902

      My council tax for a three bed semi in Scotland is €1647. My IBI in Murcia for a similar 3 bed semi is €123. I also pay €1668 per year for Electricity and Gas in Scotland. I’m in the process of moving to Spain. Can you work out why?

    • #108933
      DBMarcos99
      Participant

      So many unsold new and resale homes, high completion costs, poor exchange rates for Brits, Eurozone worries etc etc make it highly unsafe for Brits to buy in Spain now

      Lower prices and the increasing purchase power of the pound make it an attractive time to buy in Spain, if it’s a place to live in, surely?

      I like the comment on this link (although they may find they end up spending on air con what they save on heating)

      http://www.thespanishbrick.com/2012/property-news-and-views/homeowners-can-spend-around-e-2188-annually-because-of-all-of-the-basic-fees/2902

      My council tax for a three bed semi in Scotland is €1647. My IBI in Murcia for a similar 3 bed semi is €123. I also pay €1668 per year for Electricity and Gas in Scotland. I’m in the process of moving to Spain. Can you work out why?

    • #109136
      katy
      Blocked

      @DBMarcos99 wrote:

      So many unsold new and resale homes, high completion costs, poor exchange rates for Brits, Eurozone worries etc etc make it highly unsafe for Brits to buy in Spain now

      Lower prices and the increasing purchase power of the pound make it an attractive time to buy in Spain, if it’s a place to live in, surely?

      I like the comment on this link (although they may find they end up spending on air con what they save on heating)

      http://www.thespanishbrick.com/2012/property-news-and-views/homeowners-can-spend-around-e-2188-annually-because-of-all-of-the-basic-fees/2902

      My council tax for a three bed semi in Scotland is €1647. My IBI in Murcia for a similar 3 bed semi is €123. I also pay €1668 per year for Electricity and Gas in Scotland. I’m in the process of moving to Spain. Can you work out why?

      That’s not typical though. In most places the IBI has been revised and theirs could be in the process. In addition most places have urbanisation fees eg. We paid 1300€ IBI and 870€ Urbanisation fees for services that the Council should have been providing anyway. Fuel bills are like for like. Electricity/logs are more expensive in Spain.

    • #108936
      katy
      Blocked

      @DBMarcos99 wrote:

      So many unsold new and resale homes, high completion costs, poor exchange rates for Brits, Eurozone worries etc etc make it highly unsafe for Brits to buy in Spain now

      Lower prices and the increasing purchase power of the pound make it an attractive time to buy in Spain, if it’s a place to live in, surely?

      I like the comment on this link (although they may find they end up spending on air con what they save on heating)

      http://www.thespanishbrick.com/2012/property-news-and-views/homeowners-can-spend-around-e-2188-annually-because-of-all-of-the-basic-fees/2902

      My council tax for a three bed semi in Scotland is €1647. My IBI in Murcia for a similar 3 bed semi is €123. I also pay €1668 per year for Electricity and Gas in Scotland. I’m in the process of moving to Spain. Can you work out why?

      That’s not typical though. In most places the IBI has been revised and theirs could be in the process. In addition most places have urbanisation fees eg. We paid 1300€ IBI and 870€ Urbanisation fees for services that the Council should have been providing anyway. Fuel bills are like for like. Electricity/logs are more expensive in Spain.

    • #109138
      angie
      Blocked

      DBM, I do agree that the stronger pound coupled with lower prices makes Spain more attractive for those wanting a change of lifestyle but there may be few willing to risk it. This is just my opinion though, that I don’t think it will be too attractive until the exchange rate strengthens more to say above 1.40, it used to be 1.64 when we bought.

      The biggest fear though is should Spain one day leave the Euro and revert to the Peseta, will there be further property price falls to come? Spain could help by seriously lowering it’s completion costs and ensuring more transparency to purchasers as well as more regulation.

      I think there is just so much uncertainty around everywhere and no-one seems to know. 🙄

    • #108938
      angie
      Blocked

      DBM, I do agree that the stronger pound coupled with lower prices makes Spain more attractive for those wanting a change of lifestyle but there may be few willing to risk it. This is just my opinion though, that I don’t think it will be too attractive until the exchange rate strengthens more to say above 1.40, it used to be 1.64 when we bought.

      The biggest fear though is should Spain one day leave the Euro and revert to the Peseta, will there be further property price falls to come? Spain could help by seriously lowering it’s completion costs and ensuring more transparency to purchasers as well as more regulation.

      I think there is just so much uncertainty around everywhere and no-one seems to know. 🙄

    • #109139
      Anonymous
      Participant

      @mark wrote:

      http://www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/mortgageshome/article-2148335/Fleeing-Costa-catastrophe-Thousands-hand-villa-keys-Spains-economy-teeters.html

      It seems that we are now at the next stage. The first stage was when people who bought in Spain at the highest peak 2005-2007 lost loads of money. Now people who bought after the boom i.e. between 2002-2005 are also losing money.

      The next step is when people who bought during the boom i.e. between 1997-2002 are going to lose money.

      People who paid deposits between 2002-2005 and lost them could consider themselves fortunate as the £20000-£30000 loss could have been easily a £100000 loss.

    • #108939
      Anonymous
      Participant

      @mark wrote:

      http://www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/mortgageshome/article-2148335/Fleeing-Costa-catastrophe-Thousands-hand-villa-keys-Spains-economy-teeters.html

      It seems that we are now at the next stage. The first stage was when people who bought in Spain at the highest peak 2005-2007 lost loads of money. Now people who bought after the boom i.e. between 2002-2005 are also losing money.

      The next step is when people who bought during the boom i.e. between 1997-2002 are going to lose money.

      People who paid deposits between 2002-2005 and lost them could consider themselves fortunate as the £20000-£30000 loss could have been easily a £100000 loss.

    • #109140
      Chopera
      Participant

      I’m with DBM on this one – there are opportunities beginning to appear now. The problem for most Brits is they aren’t in a position to grab the bargains unless they are actually in Spain and in a position to proceed quickly. Most have to fly over for a week here or there and choose from a limited selection of property that is presented to them – in which case it probably is better for them to wait until the market falls a bit further in general.

    • #108940
      Chopera
      Participant

      I’m with DBM on this one – there are opportunities beginning to appear now. The problem for most Brits is they aren’t in a position to grab the bargains unless they are actually in Spain and in a position to proceed quickly. Most have to fly over for a week here or there and choose from a limited selection of property that is presented to them – in which case it probably is better for them to wait until the market falls a bit further in general.

    • #109141
      Anonymous
      Participant

      Lower prices and the increasing purchase power of the pound make it an attractive time to buy in Spain, if it’s a place to live in, surely?

      I couldn’t disagree with you more.

      The bottom line here is that the market in Spain is falling heavily and looks set to do so for the foreseeable future. Certainly at least two years, probably longer. I have heard people, here and elsewhere, saying ‘Now is the time to buy’ for years now. It was bad advice then, it still is.

    • #108941
      Anonymous
      Participant

      Lower prices and the increasing purchase power of the pound make it an attractive time to buy in Spain, if it’s a place to live in, surely?

      I couldn’t disagree with you more.

      The bottom line here is that the market in Spain is falling heavily and looks set to do so for the foreseeable future. Certainly at least two years, probably longer. I have heard people, here and elsewhere, saying ‘Now is the time to buy’ for years now. It was bad advice then, it still is.

    • #109142
      angie
      Blocked

      I’m with brianc here for the main reasons already mentioned so many times.

      Spain’s and Eurozone’s uncertainty needs to be a thing of the past (but when?), exchange rate for £/Euro although improved is still poor compared to what it was, huge numbers of unsold new and resales to clear first, still poor regulation re Agents, Developers, Lawyers, lack of transparency still (is it legal or not), lengthy Court procedures if you have a problem, high completion costs, generally poor build qualities on large urbanisations, and last but not least, Spain is no longer the cheap or inexpensive place to live or holiday in that it used to be.

      A lot of the above is something that Spain could sort out if it got it’s act together 🙄

      There may well be bargains around but for Brits it is still risky to buy now and there are few in a position to do so.

    • #108942
      angie
      Blocked

      I’m with brianc here for the main reasons already mentioned so many times.

      Spain’s and Eurozone’s uncertainty needs to be a thing of the past (but when?), exchange rate for £/Euro although improved is still poor compared to what it was, huge numbers of unsold new and resales to clear first, still poor regulation re Agents, Developers, Lawyers, lack of transparency still (is it legal or not), lengthy Court procedures if you have a problem, high completion costs, generally poor build qualities on large urbanisations, and last but not least, Spain is no longer the cheap or inexpensive place to live or holiday in that it used to be.

      A lot of the above is something that Spain could sort out if it got it’s act together 🙄

      There may well be bargains around but for Brits it is still risky to buy now and there are few in a position to do so.

    • #109143
      Chris M
      Participant

      @brianc_li wrote:

      Lower prices and the increasing purchase power of the pound make it an attractive time to buy in Spain, if it’s a place to live in, surely?

      I couldn’t disagree with you more.
      The bottom line here is that the market in Spain is falling heavily and looks set to do so for the foreseeable future. Certainly at least two years, probably longer. I have heard people, here and elsewhere, saying ‘Now is the time to buy’ for years now. It was bad advice then, it still is.

      Now is of course the time to buy for many, and in spite of the Greek crisis, which in previous forms / periods has had a negative impact on those in the real estate market, we ourselves can report that sales are now approaching double the same period last year.

      On the forum, we have a danger of looking at the market from single perspective. I think this is a problem, it is why I bother to post from time to time, to try and bring a different angle sometimes.

      I have a view as to why – double – the number of clients are buying over last year, I think it has to do with a number of factors, but my view could be wholly wrong so I am not going to bang on about it.

      However, I think the simple fact that we have sold properties in every week of every year of this financial crisis should tell you that of course that a lot of people have completely different motivations and views than those daily projected here – and for those who have bought, everyone one of them – they see that this was their perfect time – Now was of course the time to buy. And am sorry, but…

      It is a fantastic time to buy in so many ways, and for so many people, that sometimes I think you guys on here have aboslutely no idea.

      I don’t think you have any idea either of the massive pent up demand there is for a home in Spain, crisis or no crisis, or of the benefits that people look forward to and take from owning their own home on the Costa del Sol.

      The glass chaps, is not always half empty.

    • #108943
      Chris M
      Participant

      @brianc_li wrote:

      Lower prices and the increasing purchase power of the pound make it an attractive time to buy in Spain, if it’s a place to live in, surely?

      I couldn’t disagree with you more.
      The bottom line here is that the market in Spain is falling heavily and looks set to do so for the foreseeable future. Certainly at least two years, probably longer. I have heard people, here and elsewhere, saying ‘Now is the time to buy’ for years now. It was bad advice then, it still is.

      Now is of course the time to buy for many, and in spite of the Greek crisis, which in previous forms / periods has had a negative impact on those in the real estate market, we ourselves can report that sales are now approaching double the same period last year.

      On the forum, we have a danger of looking at the market from single perspective. I think this is a problem, it is why I bother to post from time to time, to try and bring a different angle sometimes.

      I have a view as to why – double – the number of clients are buying over last year, I think it has to do with a number of factors, but my view could be wholly wrong so I am not going to bang on about it.

      However, I think the simple fact that we have sold properties in every week of every year of this financial crisis should tell you that of course that a lot of people have completely different motivations and views than those daily projected here – and for those who have bought, everyone one of them – they see that this was their perfect time – Now was of course the time to buy. And am sorry, but…

      It is a fantastic time to buy in so many ways, and for so many people, that sometimes I think you guys on here have aboslutely no idea.

      I don’t think you have any idea either of the massive pent up demand there is for a home in Spain, crisis or no crisis, or of the benefits that people look forward to and take from owning their own home on the Costa del Sol.

      The glass chaps, is not always half empty.

    • #109144
      DBMarcos99
      Participant

      I don’t think you have any idea either of the massive pent up demand there is for a home in Spain, crisis or no crisis

      I think you’re right Chris – once prices hit affordable levels, people will turn up and buy.
      Best example of that this year was Seseña. It was derided as a ghost town in the English speaking press, and many claimed the flats would never get sold. Most Brits wrote it off as an ugly prison camp.
      But (as Mark on this site wisely predicted), there were buyers at the right level, and we know what happened next
      http://www.idealista.com/news/archivo/2012/03/28/0425643-la-burbuja-inmobiliaria-vuelve-a-sesena-toledo

      The question is though for the general market, are prices at the “affordable” stage, or do they have a little further to fall?

    • #108944
      DBMarcos99
      Participant

      I don’t think you have any idea either of the massive pent up demand there is for a home in Spain, crisis or no crisis

      I think you’re right Chris – once prices hit affordable levels, people will turn up and buy.
      Best example of that this year was Seseña. It was derided as a ghost town in the English speaking press, and many claimed the flats would never get sold. Most Brits wrote it off as an ugly prison camp.
      But (as Mark on this site wisely predicted), there were buyers at the right level, and we know what happened next
      http://www.idealista.com/news/archivo/2012/03/28/0425643-la-burbuja-inmobiliaria-vuelve-a-sesena-toledo

      The question is though for the general market, are prices at the “affordable” stage, or do they have a little further to fall?

    • #109145
      katy
      Blocked

      Agents were saying it was the right time to buy 2 years ago…it’s all on this forum. 😆

    • #108945
      katy
      Blocked

      Agents were saying it was the right time to buy 2 years ago…it’s all on this forum. 😆

    • #109147
      katy
      Blocked

      Bad news out of Spain today. Firstly Bankia trading suspended and this in the Telegraph

      Following on from our top Bankia story, Spain is reportedly set to partially close 30 of its 47 state-run airports in an attempt to cut costs.

      The collapse of regional finances in the country is pushing the Prime Minister to reverse 35 years of devolution that saw public spending soar for projects in Valencia such as Formula One racing events and a new opera house. The EU predicted last week that Spain will miss deficit-reduction goals this year and in 2013.

    • #108947
      katy
      Blocked

      Bad news out of Spain today. Firstly Bankia trading suspended and this in the Telegraph

      Following on from our top Bankia story, Spain is reportedly set to partially close 30 of its 47 state-run airports in an attempt to cut costs.

      The collapse of regional finances in the country is pushing the Prime Minister to reverse 35 years of devolution that saw public spending soar for projects in Valencia such as Formula One racing events and a new opera house. The EU predicted last week that Spain will miss deficit-reduction goals this year and in 2013.

    • #109148
      Chris M
      Participant

      @DBMarcos99 wrote:

      I don’t think you have any idea either of the massive pent up demand there is for a home in Spain, crisis or no crisis

      I think you’re right Chris – once prices hit affordable levels, people will turn up and buy.

      The question is though for the general market, are prices at the “affordable” stage, or do they have a little further to fall?

      Sesena is a perfect example of the fact that everything sells at the right price yes.

      We in the office were staggered last week to sell via a bank repossession an apartment for €140,000 this being similar to several we sold back in 2006 at €390 – €420k and this was not some half built, or poor quality urbanisation, it was a great project and location. It was an amazing buy in anybody’s book.

      We have on average around 12 different nationalities buying every month.

      People don’t wait forever, why would they? Are they going to wait until the Tinsa index has turned up, 12 months after it truly has? They going to wait for the Press to tell them now is the time to buy, 12 months after the ‘smart’ money moved in? They going to wait for their Accountant to project a positive prospect – when the last investment their accountant proposed was a Pension plan that probably itself has another decade to go before it truly goes positive after 10 years of failure?

      Of course, for some, it is the perfect time to buy!

    • #108948
      Chris M
      Participant

      @DBMarcos99 wrote:

      I don’t think you have any idea either of the massive pent up demand there is for a home in Spain, crisis or no crisis

      I think you’re right Chris – once prices hit affordable levels, people will turn up and buy.

      The question is though for the general market, are prices at the “affordable” stage, or do they have a little further to fall?

      Sesena is a perfect example of the fact that everything sells at the right price yes.

      We in the office were staggered last week to sell via a bank repossession an apartment for €140,000 this being similar to several we sold back in 2006 at €390 – €420k and this was not some half built, or poor quality urbanisation, it was a great project and location. It was an amazing buy in anybody’s book.

      We have on average around 12 different nationalities buying every month.

      People don’t wait forever, why would they? Are they going to wait until the Tinsa index has turned up, 12 months after it truly has? They going to wait for the Press to tell them now is the time to buy, 12 months after the ‘smart’ money moved in? They going to wait for their Accountant to project a positive prospect – when the last investment their accountant proposed was a Pension plan that probably itself has another decade to go before it truly goes positive after 10 years of failure?

      Of course, for some, it is the perfect time to buy!

    • #109149
      Chris M
      Participant

      @katy wrote:

      Agents were saying it was the right time to buy 2 years ago…it’s all on this forum. 😆

      Indeed and they were right, for the right people it was the right time.

      What, do you think that there is some moment or period where – no one buys?

      Again, not everyone views buying a home in Spain from the extremely narrow and insular perspective that this forum often projects.

      This forum has a lot of value and considerable gravitas in my view, but I don’t think it has the ‘smarts’ when it comes to time to buy.

    • #108949
      Chris M
      Participant

      @katy wrote:

      Agents were saying it was the right time to buy 2 years ago…it’s all on this forum. 😆

      Indeed and they were right, for the right people it was the right time.

      What, do you think that there is some moment or period where – no one buys?

      Again, not everyone views buying a home in Spain from the extremely narrow and insular perspective that this forum often projects.

      This forum has a lot of value and considerable gravitas in my view, but I don’t think it has the ‘smarts’ when it comes to time to buy.

    • #109150
      katy
      Blocked

      Well I’m smart 😆 Did well out of spanish property by buying and selling at the right time

    • #108950
      katy
      Blocked

      Well I’m smart 😆 Did well out of spanish property by buying and selling at the right time

    • #109151
      Anonymous
      Participant

      @Chris McCarthy wrote:

      Indeed and they were right, for the right people it was the right time.

      Again, not everyone views buying a home in Spain from the extremely narrow and insular perspective that this forum often projects.

      .

      Wow! “extremely narrow and insular perspective”. So who is the clarevoyant who opens our eyes?

      One thing is for sure: I am not neccesarily interested in buying but I am following some places like around Salobrena-Almunecar,
      Peniscola-Alcossebre and around Calpe. As compared to say 2009-2010, prices in Euros for the same apartments are now about 30% lower in Peniscola and 25% lower in other places. As Pound was almost even with Euros in 2010, In Pound they are about 45% and 40% lower than then.

      I repeat, I refer to the same type of apartments.

      Of course there are always people who need to buy and some exist every week. But if there is no rush, then it is much better to wait till the turmoil finishes.

    • #108951
      Anonymous
      Participant

      @Chris McCarthy wrote:

      Indeed and they were right, for the right people it was the right time.

      Again, not everyone views buying a home in Spain from the extremely narrow and insular perspective that this forum often projects.

      .

      Wow! “extremely narrow and insular perspective”. So who is the clarevoyant who opens our eyes?

      One thing is for sure: I am not neccesarily interested in buying but I am following some places like around Salobrena-Almunecar,
      Peniscola-Alcossebre and around Calpe. As compared to say 2009-2010, prices in Euros for the same apartments are now about 30% lower in Peniscola and 25% lower in other places. As Pound was almost even with Euros in 2010, In Pound they are about 45% and 40% lower than then.

      I repeat, I refer to the same type of apartments.

      Of course there are always people who need to buy and some exist every week. But if there is no rush, then it is much better to wait till the turmoil finishes.

    • #109153
      GarySFBCN
      Participant

      Bad news out of Spain today. Firstly Bankia trading suspended and this in the Telegraph

      Spain’s Bankia asks for $24B in state aid

      But they’ve got it all under control. Go spend money. Life is good:

      Spain’s lender Bankia says it won’t need more aid
      MADRID (AP) — The president of Bankia tried Saturday to calm fears about the future of the bank, saying Spain’s second largest mortgage lender will emerge as a solid financial entity after it receives €23.5 billion ($29.5 billion) in state aid in the country’s biggest-ever bank bailout.

      All they need is €24 billion. It’s just that simple. And please, don’t ask for any needless plans for transparency, accountability or even how they are going to dig their way out of this problem, because that would hurt their feelings. No need to question their credibility – that is still solid.

    • #108953
      GarySFBCN
      Participant

      Bad news out of Spain today. Firstly Bankia trading suspended and this in the Telegraph

      Spain’s Bankia asks for $24B in state aid

      But they’ve got it all under control. Go spend money. Life is good:

      Spain’s lender Bankia says it won’t need more aid
      MADRID (AP) — The president of Bankia tried Saturday to calm fears about the future of the bank, saying Spain’s second largest mortgage lender will emerge as a solid financial entity after it receives €23.5 billion ($29.5 billion) in state aid in the country’s biggest-ever bank bailout.

      All they need is €24 billion. It’s just that simple. And please, don’t ask for any needless plans for transparency, accountability or even how they are going to dig their way out of this problem, because that would hurt their feelings. No need to question their credibility – that is still solid.

    • #109156
      Anonymous
      Participant

      Am I right in saying if Spain were to leave the Euro -then mortgages taken out in euro would remain Euro debts and would have to be repaid in devalued pesetas. This would mean that some could never repay their debt. On the other hand if the Euro broke up the position would be different because the euro would cease to exist. In that case all the euros issued by the Bank of Spainand held in spanish bank accounts would be converted to peseta at the entry rate of 100/160. The only problem then would be a likely higher interest rate to pay on the loan that would cause more repossessions.

    • #108956
      Anonymous
      Participant

      Am I right in saying if Spain were to leave the Euro -then mortgages taken out in euro would remain Euro debts and would have to be repaid in devalued pesetas. This would mean that some could never repay their debt. On the other hand if the Euro broke up the position would be different because the euro would cease to exist. In that case all the euros issued by the Bank of Spainand held in spanish bank accounts would be converted to peseta at the entry rate of 100/160. The only problem then would be a likely higher interest rate to pay on the loan that would cause more repossessions.

    • #109157
      angie
      Blocked

      ‘narrow and insular perspective’ is what I would call the agents’ view currently as they are the ones doing the selling so whatever the market they are going to hype things to some extent and please don’t say they won’t! 😡 It’s disingenuous (in fact a b—-y cheek) to describe us who’ve had experience of being ripped off by those so called larger agents as ‘narrow and insular’, some of these agents have re-invented themselves having gone bust, and there’s plenty about these agents if you Google search them and enter Scams by such and such company or their personal name etc!!!!! 👿

      Says it all ’12 nationalities buying each month’ but I’d qualify that and say ‘now is definitely not the time for Brits to buy in Spain’, it might suit Euro holders but not Sterling holders! However, now is the time for many Brits to sell Spanish property as 1000’s are trying to do as they are fed up with this ‘dream’, but strangely enough many cannot sell because the market is shot.

      ‘For some, it is the perfect time to buy’, yes Euro holders or those seeking a change of lifestyle and don’t mind the wait if it goes wrong!

      We know Chris keeps saying the Euro won’t go, this won’t happen etc etc but he’s no expert on such matters when there’s plenty of financial gurus who say it could happen, he doesn’t have the last word on World financial crisis, but he does have a strong vested interest some might say ‘narrow and insular’ 😆

      Everything ‘sells’ they say at the right price, but who in their right mind would want to buy some of this c–p that’s out dated, unfinished, poorly built, as many developments are in Spain, even urban, a bit like Sessena, unless you’re a worker in Madrid? 😡

    • #108957
      angie
      Blocked

      ‘narrow and insular perspective’ is what I would call the agents’ view currently as they are the ones doing the selling so whatever the market they are going to hype things to some extent and please don’t say they won’t! 😡 It’s disingenuous (in fact a b—-y cheek) to describe us who’ve had experience of being ripped off by those so called larger agents as ‘narrow and insular’, some of these agents have re-invented themselves having gone bust, and there’s plenty about these agents if you Google search them and enter Scams by such and such company or their personal name etc!!!!! 👿

      Says it all ’12 nationalities buying each month’ but I’d qualify that and say ‘now is definitely not the time for Brits to buy in Spain’, it might suit Euro holders but not Sterling holders! However, now is the time for many Brits to sell Spanish property as 1000’s are trying to do as they are fed up with this ‘dream’, but strangely enough many cannot sell because the market is shot.

      ‘For some, it is the perfect time to buy’, yes Euro holders or those seeking a change of lifestyle and don’t mind the wait if it goes wrong!

      We know Chris keeps saying the Euro won’t go, this won’t happen etc etc but he’s no expert on such matters when there’s plenty of financial gurus who say it could happen, he doesn’t have the last word on World financial crisis, but he does have a strong vested interest some might say ‘narrow and insular’ 😆

      Everything ‘sells’ they say at the right price, but who in their right mind would want to buy some of this c–p that’s out dated, unfinished, poorly built, as many developments are in Spain, even urban, a bit like Sessena, unless you’re a worker in Madrid? 😡

    • #109158
      katy
      Blocked

      I don’t think there is much activity on the housing market despite a few trying to talk it up. Mortgage lendingin Spain is down 47% from last year, which was dire too.

    • #108958
      katy
      Blocked

      I don’t think there is much activity on the housing market despite a few trying to talk it up. Mortgage lendingin Spain is down 47% from last year, which was dire too.

    • #109159
      DBMarcos99
      Participant

      It’s definitely a buyer’s market, with lower prices, and the pound gaining in strength.
      No wonder there are reports stating that rents are starting to rise, after a long time falling.
      http://www.aplaceinthesun.com/news/feature/tabid/131/EntryId/1801/Spanish-rents-rise-in-April.aspx

    • #108959
      DBMarcos99
      Participant

      It’s definitely a buyer’s market, with lower prices, and the pound gaining in strength.
      No wonder there are reports stating that rents are starting to rise, after a long time falling.
      http://www.aplaceinthesun.com/news/feature/tabid/131/EntryId/1801/Spanish-rents-rise-in-April.aspx

    • #109162
      Anonymous
      Participant

      @Ptr wrote:

      Am I right in saying if Spain were to leave the Euro -then mortgages taken out in euro would remain Euro debts and would have to be repaid in devalued pesetas. This would mean that some could never repay their debt. On the other hand if the Euro broke up the position would be different because the euro would cease to exist. In that case all the euros issued by the Bank of Spainand held in spanish bank accounts would be converted to peseta at the entry rate of 100/160. The only problem then would be a likely higher interest rate to pay on the loan that would cause more repossessions.

      Normaly what happens is that all currencies held in spanish bank accounts are convertered to the new currency. Normally to a fixed rate. A large problem is that this money is usually freezed for quite some time. Historically 100% of these banks customers will stand to loose lots of value during this first period of time sine the currency will start to devalue straight away and they can’t use them for anything. Yes the debt would mostly still be in euros but they could always just write a new law forcing all debts taken out in euros to be converted into the new currency. This will ofcourse make the lenders angry and will make borrowing money in the future much harder from international agencies and banks. This last thing did not really happen to Iceland that did this to loans taken out by private people that was pegged to other currencies. I would in all honesty never hand out loans to such a partner again but who really knows what would happen. People seem to forget that this is the biggest financial catastrophe ever to happen and no normal rules can really be applied.

      Katy
      I totally agree. A few select groups are still buying but they are mainly from countries which haven’t experienced any financial difficulties yet and using currency that have strengthened against the euro. These numbers are so small though that it will not really affect the total number of transactions taking place compared to earlier years. A few select agents catering to these groups may have it ok. This still means that many agents will dissapear since agents survive on volume and not a few select transactions.

      Angie
      Certain buys taken out the last couple of years will be ok because they bought at very low levels. Had a buyer that bought a newly constructed property through me in 2010 for 35k euros and had been bought on the drawing board in 2006 for 140k euroes and it was finished in 2008-2009. I doubt these buyers will risk much. The problem is that those sort of transactions are hard to come buy and therefor no mass transactions are occuring. At those sort of reductions the buyers would arrive en mass.

      Had I still been working in Spain as an agent I would have been much more tough with the sellers that had the wrong figures in their mind. Not worth wasting each others times with valuations over 50-60% less than peak levels as a minimum.

    • #108962
      Anonymous
      Participant

      @Ptr wrote:

      Am I right in saying if Spain were to leave the Euro -then mortgages taken out in euro would remain Euro debts and would have to be repaid in devalued pesetas. This would mean that some could never repay their debt. On the other hand if the Euro broke up the position would be different because the euro would cease to exist. In that case all the euros issued by the Bank of Spainand held in spanish bank accounts would be converted to peseta at the entry rate of 100/160. The only problem then would be a likely higher interest rate to pay on the loan that would cause more repossessions.

      Normaly what happens is that all currencies held in spanish bank accounts are convertered to the new currency. Normally to a fixed rate. A large problem is that this money is usually freezed for quite some time. Historically 100% of these banks customers will stand to loose lots of value during this first period of time sine the currency will start to devalue straight away and they can’t use them for anything. Yes the debt would mostly still be in euros but they could always just write a new law forcing all debts taken out in euros to be converted into the new currency. This will ofcourse make the lenders angry and will make borrowing money in the future much harder from international agencies and banks. This last thing did not really happen to Iceland that did this to loans taken out by private people that was pegged to other currencies. I would in all honesty never hand out loans to such a partner again but who really knows what would happen. People seem to forget that this is the biggest financial catastrophe ever to happen and no normal rules can really be applied.

      Katy
      I totally agree. A few select groups are still buying but they are mainly from countries which haven’t experienced any financial difficulties yet and using currency that have strengthened against the euro. These numbers are so small though that it will not really affect the total number of transactions taking place compared to earlier years. A few select agents catering to these groups may have it ok. This still means that many agents will dissapear since agents survive on volume and not a few select transactions.

      Angie
      Certain buys taken out the last couple of years will be ok because they bought at very low levels. Had a buyer that bought a newly constructed property through me in 2010 for 35k euros and had been bought on the drawing board in 2006 for 140k euroes and it was finished in 2008-2009. I doubt these buyers will risk much. The problem is that those sort of transactions are hard to come buy and therefor no mass transactions are occuring. At those sort of reductions the buyers would arrive en mass.

      Had I still been working in Spain as an agent I would have been much more tough with the sellers that had the wrong figures in their mind. Not worth wasting each others times with valuations over 50-60% less than peak levels as a minimum.

    • #109163
      katy
      Blocked

      Had to laugh at this on the Place in the Sun website. Although would you expect anything different from a company whose main existence is to sell property overseas. 😆

      Many experts are now predicting that the Spanish property market is starting to recover, with the latest Real Estate Pulsometer prepared by the Corporate Practice Institute (IPE) predicting that the ‘stock’ of unsold homes in Spain will be reduced by 23.6% in 2012, by up to 611,250 homes, and they anticipate that new construction activity will begin to recover in 2013

    • #108963
      katy
      Blocked

      Had to laugh at this on the Place in the Sun website. Although would you expect anything different from a company whose main existence is to sell property overseas. 😆

      Many experts are now predicting that the Spanish property market is starting to recover, with the latest Real Estate Pulsometer prepared by the Corporate Practice Institute (IPE) predicting that the ‘stock’ of unsold homes in Spain will be reduced by 23.6% in 2012, by up to 611,250 homes, and they anticipate that new construction activity will begin to recover in 2013

    • #109164
      DBMarcos99
      Participant

      A few select groups are still buying but they are mainly from countries which haven’t experienced any financial difficulties yet and using currency that have strengthened against the euro. These numbers are so small though that it will not really affect the total number of transactions taking place compared to earlier years.

      Now that the pound is appreciating against the Euro, won’t there be increased interest from UK buyers?
      They may wait a month or two to see if things settle down as regards the Euro-rate (the Euro may even get stronger again if the weaker countries leave, who knows?)

    • #108964
      DBMarcos99
      Participant

      A few select groups are still buying but they are mainly from countries which haven’t experienced any financial difficulties yet and using currency that have strengthened against the euro. These numbers are so small though that it will not really affect the total number of transactions taking place compared to earlier years.

      Now that the pound is appreciating against the Euro, won’t there be increased interest from UK buyers?
      They may wait a month or two to see if things settle down as regards the Euro-rate (the Euro may even get stronger again if the weaker countries leave, who knows?)

    • #109165
      logan
      Participant

      Property salesmen such as Chris McCarthy will always tell you it’s the right time to buy. That’s their reason for being. It’s also the reason you should seek advice elsewhere from independent voices if your at all interested in buying a Spanish property. Hard to find I know. Even Mark is compromised.

      People are easily sucked into a market which offers paper discounts. The truth is property discounts are only a marketing tool and an illusion. Property was grossly overvalued in the first place so discounts now are meaningless. Many are convinced by the seemingly bargain basement idea and the expectation that in a few years they will double their money. In truth they are being conned.

      I say that because of the expectation in the markets that Spain is very likely to be bankrupt soon and will need a bailout from the EU. Further down the line it could well be another Greece and leave the Eurozone altogether. Also it’s at least a 50/50 possibility that the Euro may collapse and the EU banking system along with it. Unemployment is catastrophic and getting worse, civil unrest is inevitable as further austerity and decline is forced upon the nation.

      As long as these possibilities even exists nobody in their right mind should invest in a broken, uncertain market such as Spanish property. Ordinary people with life savings are not market gamblers. To be successful in that field you require a great deal of knowledge and experience with very deep pockets to stand the inevitable losses.

      Buying property in Spain is at the moment tantamount to a pure market gamble. Do it at your peril. You may win in a few years after paying huge buying taxes and annual costs, but in my view losing your shirt is far more likely.

      Of course you can always use it for holidays and try and rent it out but risking capital in an uncertain world is like paying for your holidays costs upfront for twenty years.

    • #108965
      logan
      Participant

      Property salesmen such as Chris McCarthy will always tell you it’s the right time to buy. That’s their reason for being. It’s also the reason you should seek advice elsewhere from independent voices if your at all interested in buying a Spanish property. Hard to find I know. Even Mark is compromised.

      People are easily sucked into a market which offers paper discounts. The truth is property discounts are only a marketing tool and an illusion. Property was grossly overvalued in the first place so discounts now are meaningless. Many are convinced by the seemingly bargain basement idea and the expectation that in a few years they will double their money. In truth they are being conned.

      I say that because of the expectation in the markets that Spain is very likely to be bankrupt soon and will need a bailout from the EU. Further down the line it could well be another Greece and leave the Eurozone altogether. Also it’s at least a 50/50 possibility that the Euro may collapse and the EU banking system along with it. Unemployment is catastrophic and getting worse, civil unrest is inevitable as further austerity and decline is forced upon the nation.

      As long as these possibilities even exists nobody in their right mind should invest in a broken, uncertain market such as Spanish property. Ordinary people with life savings are not market gamblers. To be successful in that field you require a great deal of knowledge and experience with very deep pockets to stand the inevitable losses.

      Buying property in Spain is at the moment tantamount to a pure market gamble. Do it at your peril. You may win in a few years after paying huge buying taxes and annual costs, but in my view losing your shirt is far more likely.

      Of course you can always use it for holidays and try and rent it out but risking capital in an uncertain world is like paying for your holidays costs upfront for twenty years.

    • #109166
      DBMarcos99
      Participant

      @logan wrote:

      Property salesmen such as Chris McCarthy will always tell you it’s the right time to buy. That’s their reason for being. It’s also the reason you should seek advice elsewhere from independent voices if your at all interested in buying a Spanish property. Hard to find I know. Even Mark is compromised.

      People are easily sucked into a market which offers paper discounts. The truth is property discounts are only a marketing tool and an illusion. Property was grossly overvalued in the first place so discounts now are meaningless. Many are convinced by the seemingly bargain basement idea and the expectation that in a few years they will double their money. In truth they are being conned.

      I say that because of the expectation in the markets that Spain is very likely to be bankrupt soon and will need a bailout from the EU. Further down the line it could well be another Greece and leave the Eurozone altogether. Also it’s at least a 50/50 possibility that the Euro may collapse and the EU banking system along with it. Unemployment is catastrophic and getting worse, civil unrest is inevitable as further austerity and decline is forced upon the nation.

      As long as these possibilities even exists nobody in their right mind should invest in a broken, uncertain market such as Spanish property. Ordinary people with life savings are not market gamblers. To be successful in that field you require a great deal of knowledge and experience with very deep pockets to stand the inevitable losses.

      Buying property in Spain is at the moment tantamount to a pure market gamble. Do it at your peril. You may win in a few years after paying huge buying taxes and annual costs, but in my view losing your shirt is far more likely.

      Of course you can always use it for holidays and try and rent it out but risking capital in an uncertain world is like paying for your holidays costs upfront for twenty years.

      I heard a lot of similar arguments in the early 90s. Don’t get me wrong I can understand your advice for “someone looking to invest”, but for someone who may be thinking of a home for many years, it makes sense to buy when prices are low?
      I’ve discussed this with my partner (who doesn’t speak Spanish) but we both feel that we need to buy somewhere to retire to at some point (it won’t be this year though) and that Spanish prices are far far lower than the south of England. We may end up in the north of England, but Spain looks very enticing.

    • #108966
      DBMarcos99
      Participant

      @logan wrote:

      Property salesmen such as Chris McCarthy will always tell you it’s the right time to buy. That’s their reason for being. It’s also the reason you should seek advice elsewhere from independent voices if your at all interested in buying a Spanish property. Hard to find I know. Even Mark is compromised.

      People are easily sucked into a market which offers paper discounts. The truth is property discounts are only a marketing tool and an illusion. Property was grossly overvalued in the first place so discounts now are meaningless. Many are convinced by the seemingly bargain basement idea and the expectation that in a few years they will double their money. In truth they are being conned.

      I say that because of the expectation in the markets that Spain is very likely to be bankrupt soon and will need a bailout from the EU. Further down the line it could well be another Greece and leave the Eurozone altogether. Also it’s at least a 50/50 possibility that the Euro may collapse and the EU banking system along with it. Unemployment is catastrophic and getting worse, civil unrest is inevitable as further austerity and decline is forced upon the nation.

      As long as these possibilities even exists nobody in their right mind should invest in a broken, uncertain market such as Spanish property. Ordinary people with life savings are not market gamblers. To be successful in that field you require a great deal of knowledge and experience with very deep pockets to stand the inevitable losses.

      Buying property in Spain is at the moment tantamount to a pure market gamble. Do it at your peril. You may win in a few years after paying huge buying taxes and annual costs, but in my view losing your shirt is far more likely.

      Of course you can always use it for holidays and try and rent it out but risking capital in an uncertain world is like paying for your holidays costs upfront for twenty years.

      I heard a lot of similar arguments in the early 90s. Don’t get me wrong I can understand your advice for “someone looking to invest”, but for someone who may be thinking of a home for many years, it makes sense to buy when prices are low?
      I’ve discussed this with my partner (who doesn’t speak Spanish) but we both feel that we need to buy somewhere to retire to at some point (it won’t be this year though) and that Spanish prices are far far lower than the south of England. We may end up in the north of England, but Spain looks very enticing.

    • #109167
      Anonymous
      Participant

      @DBMarcos99 wrote:

      A few select groups are still buying but they are mainly from countries which haven’t experienced any financial difficulties yet and using currency that have strengthened against the euro. These numbers are so small though that it will not really affect the total number of transactions taking place compared to earlier years.

      Now that the pound is appreciating against the Euro, won’t there be increased interest from UK buyers?
      They may wait a month or two to see if things settle down as regards the Euro-rate (the Euro may even get stronger again if the weaker countries leave, who knows?)

      Sorry but I doubt people from countries being burned in this process so recently will not jump on every “small” chance gained. UK buyers don’t trust Spain at the moment but you can probably find one or two buyers somewhere. The pound would need to strengthen a lot more for any of these sort of effects helping the UK buyers market to occur. How much you may ask? I don’t know but 40-50% would be my bet.

    • #108967
      Anonymous
      Participant

      @DBMarcos99 wrote:

      A few select groups are still buying but they are mainly from countries which haven’t experienced any financial difficulties yet and using currency that have strengthened against the euro. These numbers are so small though that it will not really affect the total number of transactions taking place compared to earlier years.

      Now that the pound is appreciating against the Euro, won’t there be increased interest from UK buyers?
      They may wait a month or two to see if things settle down as regards the Euro-rate (the Euro may even get stronger again if the weaker countries leave, who knows?)

      Sorry but I doubt people from countries being burned in this process so recently will not jump on every “small” chance gained. UK buyers don’t trust Spain at the moment but you can probably find one or two buyers somewhere. The pound would need to strengthen a lot more for any of these sort of effects helping the UK buyers market to occur. How much you may ask? I don’t know but 40-50% would be my bet.

    • #109169
      logan
      Participant

      DB Marcos.
      Investing now for retirement in Spain in the future makes no sense either. Far too many uncertainties.
      You cannot predict either your future personal circumstances or the countries with any degree of accuracy in this uncertain financial climate.

    • #108969
      logan
      Participant

      DB Marcos.
      Investing now for retirement in Spain in the future makes no sense either. Far too many uncertainties.
      You cannot predict either your future personal circumstances or the countries with any degree of accuracy in this uncertain financial climate.

    • #109171
      GarySFBCN
      Participant

      Mortgage lending in Spain is down 47% from last year, which was dire too.

      In my situation, it is because the banks are offering me truly awful terms: Euribor +1.7% BUT a minimum rate of 3.75% (after the initial year of 3.9%), pre-payment penalties, limited to 20 years term (partner is 42 years old), 650 euros/year of required life insurance (or the rate goes up). I should add that this is with 30% paid up-front (plus paying the 12% costs in cash) and my credit record is PERFECT and I have a more-than-sufficient salary (5-6 times average in Spain). The good news is that if this is the only mortgage available, it will force me to find a creative solution, which is what I should have been doing from the start.

      No wonder there are reports stating that rents are starting to rise, after a long time falling.

      Here in the States, demand for rental apartments increases and rents go up when people lose their homes to banks.

      Now that the pound is appreciating against the Euro, won’t there be increased interest from UK buyers?

      I can’t speak for the UK, but for me, it has been ridiculously difficult to purchase anything: A non-responsive banking system, sellers who still believe that it is a ‘sellers market,’ a culture that allows for breaking appointments moments before the scheduled time and a healthy level of bureaucracy make it too difficult to purchase anything for those who are not truly motivated.

    • #108972
      GarySFBCN
      Participant

      Mortgage lending in Spain is down 47% from last year, which was dire too.

      In my situation, it is because the banks are offering me truly awful terms: Euribor +1.7% BUT a minimum rate of 3.75% (after the initial year of 3.9%), pre-payment penalties, limited to 20 years term (partner is 42 years old), 650 euros/year of required life insurance (or the rate goes up). I should add that this is with 30% paid up-front (plus paying the 12% costs in cash) and my credit record is PERFECT and I have a more-than-sufficient salary (5-6 times average in Spain). The good news is that if this is the only mortgage available, it will force me to find a creative solution, which is what I should have been doing from the start.

      No wonder there are reports stating that rents are starting to rise, after a long time falling.

      Here in the States, demand for rental apartments increases and rents go up when people lose their homes to banks.

      Now that the pound is appreciating against the Euro, won’t there be increased interest from UK buyers?

      I can’t speak for the UK, but for me, it has been ridiculously difficult to purchase anything: A non-responsive banking system, sellers who still believe that it is a ‘sellers market,’ a culture that allows for breaking appointments moments before the scheduled time and a healthy level of bureaucracy make it too difficult to purchase anything for those who are not truly motivated.

    • #109181
      angie
      Blocked

      DBM, I see why you are thinking of buying in Spain for retirement sometime and because prices are down, are you intending to buy sooner than later? However as several of us point out, doesn’t the current Euro confusion concern you even though property may look attractively priced. UK prices are generally higher than in Spain but that’s because there’s more demand and the market usually holds up well and protects your investment. I know where my money would go, or possibly a safer bet than Spain would be somewhere in Provence which also holds up well.

      Not wishing to probe into how much you are thinking of investing in Spain, but have you thought of putting that on deposit in the UK and using the interest and maybe part Capital to rent in Spain until after all the turmoil is over? Your Capital would still be yours and the exchange rate might have improved for you, and with cash, you could probably still get a good deal. I would possibly buy privately to save costs, or, ask the agent what commission is built into the price. 11% buying costs, plus agents commission included, then add in selling costs if you want to re-sell, it adds up to a hefty lump you need to make on property increasing to just break even, some 25% potentially, not forgetting if the exchange rate then flips back and works against you again 🙄 Just my opinion though 😉

    • #108992
      angie
      Blocked

      DBM, I see why you are thinking of buying in Spain for retirement sometime and because prices are down, are you intending to buy sooner than later? However as several of us point out, doesn’t the current Euro confusion concern you even though property may look attractively priced. UK prices are generally higher than in Spain but that’s because there’s more demand and the market usually holds up well and protects your investment. I know where my money would go, or possibly a safer bet than Spain would be somewhere in Provence which also holds up well.

      Not wishing to probe into how much you are thinking of investing in Spain, but have you thought of putting that on deposit in the UK and using the interest and maybe part Capital to rent in Spain until after all the turmoil is over? Your Capital would still be yours and the exchange rate might have improved for you, and with cash, you could probably still get a good deal. I would possibly buy privately to save costs, or, ask the agent what commission is built into the price. 11% buying costs, plus agents commission included, then add in selling costs if you want to re-sell, it adds up to a hefty lump you need to make on property increasing to just break even, some 25% potentially, not forgetting if the exchange rate then flips back and works against you again 🙄 Just my opinion though 😉

    • #109184
      Anonymous
      Participant

      Valid points, Angie however he/she must have £400.000 with say average interest rates being around 1.50% (net after notional tax ) to be able to rent anything half decent.

      Further errosion of capital as inflation will eat up the capital over the coming years. Which ever way one looks at it there are too many unknows to take a educated decesion.

      Ofcourse in the present climate Cash is Emperor (Even the return on the cash does not but any clothes ) unless the Emperor goes to Primark.

    • #108998
      Anonymous
      Participant

      Valid points, Angie however he/she must have £400.000 with say average interest rates being around 1.50% (net after notional tax ) to be able to rent anything half decent.

      Further errosion of capital as inflation will eat up the capital over the coming years. Which ever way one looks at it there are too many unknows to take a educated decesion.

      Ofcourse in the present climate Cash is Emperor (Even the return on the cash does not but any clothes ) unless the Emperor goes to Primark.

    • #109186
      logan
      Participant

      Cash deposits make you poorer unless you hedge it with FX trades. I expect inflation to rocket once this crisis subsides. If you stay in cash it’s eroded. Get out of Euro’s now at all costs.
      It is not just I who are struggling to make capital work for a decent return at the moment. I moved into US$ some time ago when the Euro was 1.50. Good trade but where do I go now. Even seasoned traders are scratching their heads.
      The US elections are crucial and if Romney wins the economy in the US may blossom. If you want to liquidate into cash now for the long term the trade may well be Sterling.
      Property is toxic almost everywhere except perhaps buy to let in some UK cities, if you can stand the hassle which comes with it.

    • #109003
      logan
      Participant

      Cash deposits make you poorer unless you hedge it with FX trades. I expect inflation to rocket once this crisis subsides. If you stay in cash it’s eroded. Get out of Euro’s now at all costs.
      It is not just I who are struggling to make capital work for a decent return at the moment. I moved into US$ some time ago when the Euro was 1.50. Good trade but where do I go now. Even seasoned traders are scratching their heads.
      The US elections are crucial and if Romney wins the economy in the US may blossom. If you want to liquidate into cash now for the long term the trade may well be Sterling.
      Property is toxic almost everywhere except perhaps buy to let in some UK cities, if you can stand the hassle which comes with it.

    • #109187
      angie
      Blocked

      shakeel, we currently get 3% (net) on deposit in the UK with little notice required, your 400k would then produce 12k interest, more than enough to rent in Spain, however you can get 4.6% still in the UK on 4 or 5 year savings bonds, which would bring in 16-18k+ interest, your Capital would still be safe. Yes inflation might erode Capital but not half so bad if Spanish property falls again from these levels, and neither replies has factored in my point that buying and selling costs plus agent’s built in commission means you have to make up the 25% loss of all these just to break even, so I don’t see the point of buying with all this uncertainty around 😉

    • #109005
      angie
      Blocked

      shakeel, we currently get 3% (net) on deposit in the UK with little notice required, your 400k would then produce 12k interest, more than enough to rent in Spain, however you can get 4.6% still in the UK on 4 or 5 year savings bonds, which would bring in 16-18k+ interest, your Capital would still be safe. Yes inflation might erode Capital but not half so bad if Spanish property falls again from these levels, and neither replies has factored in my point that buying and selling costs plus agent’s built in commission means you have to make up the 25% loss of all these just to break even, so I don’t see the point of buying with all this uncertainty around 😉

    • #109191
      peterhun
      Participant

      @logan wrote:

      Cash deposits make you poorer unless you hedge it with FX trades. I expect inflation to rocket once this crisis subsides. If you stay in cash it’s eroded. Get out of Euro’s now at all costs.
      It is not just I who are struggling to make capital work for a decent return at the moment. I moved into US$ some time ago when the Euro was 1.50. Good trade but where do I go now. Even seasoned traders are scratching their heads.

      You could gamble on the Polish Zolty, its a risk takers bet.

    • #109013
      peterhun
      Participant

      @logan wrote:

      Cash deposits make you poorer unless you hedge it with FX trades. I expect inflation to rocket once this crisis subsides. If you stay in cash it’s eroded. Get out of Euro’s now at all costs.
      It is not just I who are struggling to make capital work for a decent return at the moment. I moved into US$ some time ago when the Euro was 1.50. Good trade but where do I go now. Even seasoned traders are scratching their heads.

      You could gamble on the Polish Zolty, its a risk takers bet.

    • #109196
      Anonymous
      Participant

      Rent!!!!!! If my Dad had come down and rented for 9 months he would have spent around six thousand euros. He didn’t as I said what a great idea it would be for him to move down here and buy. He didn’t like it and work hardly started on his ‘project’ out in the countryside. I wish, wish, wish, wish, wish!!! that he had rented first for a decent time to see if he liked it enough. His rental place where he was only supposed to be whilst work finished the cortijo, was freezing cold in winter and over the past month like an oven.

      If he had rented he would still have 40,000 euros in his account and wouldn’t have spent 5000 euros getting all his things down here and now 5000 euros for a lorry to take it all back. Hindsight is a great thing. Try before you buy so that we can all have a clear conscience that those buying do so knowing what they are letting themselves in for.

    • #109023
      Anonymous
      Participant

      Rent!!!!!! If my Dad had come down and rented for 9 months he would have spent around six thousand euros. He didn’t as I said what a great idea it would be for him to move down here and buy. He didn’t like it and work hardly started on his ‘project’ out in the countryside. I wish, wish, wish, wish, wish!!! that he had rented first for a decent time to see if he liked it enough. His rental place where he was only supposed to be whilst work finished the cortijo, was freezing cold in winter and over the past month like an oven.

      If he had rented he would still have 40,000 euros in his account and wouldn’t have spent 5000 euros getting all his things down here and now 5000 euros for a lorry to take it all back. Hindsight is a great thing. Try before you buy so that we can all have a clear conscience that those buying do so knowing what they are letting themselves in for.

    • #109202
      GarySFBCN
      Participant

      I expect inflation to rocket once this crisis subsides. If you stay in cash it’s eroded.

      My father had good savings and in the early 1980’s, he was getting 16% on his savings in term account at the bank. I’d say there was no erosion.

      The US elections are crucial and if Romney wins the economy in the US may blossom.

      The truth is that Republicans are bad for the economy. And unless Romney gets a personality transplant – no, make that an implant because he currently doesn’t have one – he probably will not be elected. The Republicans have cultivated a base of supporters who are uneducated hillbillies with extreme opinions. And now they don’t know what to do about them, because they (the Tea Party) do not support Romney.

    • #109035
      GarySFBCN
      Participant

      I expect inflation to rocket once this crisis subsides. If you stay in cash it’s eroded.

      My father had good savings and in the early 1980’s, he was getting 16% on his savings in term account at the bank. I’d say there was no erosion.

      The US elections are crucial and if Romney wins the economy in the US may blossom.

      The truth is that Republicans are bad for the economy. And unless Romney gets a personality transplant – no, make that an implant because he currently doesn’t have one – he probably will not be elected. The Republicans have cultivated a base of supporters who are uneducated hillbillies with extreme opinions. And now they don’t know what to do about them, because they (the Tea Party) do not support Romney.

    • #109203
      katy
      Blocked

      When we first moved to Spain (1995) we were getting 15% interest, dropping about a year later to 12%

    • #109037
      katy
      Blocked

      When we first moved to Spain (1995) we were getting 15% interest, dropping about a year later to 12%

    • #109204
      logan
      Participant

      Gary.
      Market sentiment will rise if Romney is elected. I’ll sell my Dollars then. I care not two hoots for the politics or the consequences.
      Politicians are all the same in every nation. They make no difference at all except to make war. It’s people who change things.
      I believe only in the power of markets and making a buck.

    • #109039
      logan
      Participant

      Gary.
      Market sentiment will rise if Romney is elected. I’ll sell my Dollars then. I care not two hoots for the politics or the consequences.
      Politicians are all the same in every nation. They make no difference at all except to make war. It’s people who change things.
      I believe only in the power of markets and making a buck.

    • #109233
      logan
      Participant

      @peterhun wrote:

      You could gamble on the Polish Zolty, its a risk takers bet.

      Peter with your political knowledge in Poland what’s the expectations of the country entering the Euro? I know the old guard nationalists have now gone and a pro-European party is ruling.
      I do see a booming economy due mainly to Germany. However currency investment may be too high a risk, ending up with Euro’s converted at the inevitable low rate.

    • #109248
      peterhun
      Participant

      @logan wrote:

      Peter with your political knowledge in Poland what’s the expectations of the country entering the Euro? I know the old guard nationalists have now gone and a pro-European party is ruling.

      Entry will happen no sooner than 2015, Its dependent on the Eurozone sorting itself out. The Polish Finance Minister Rostowski inspires a lot of confidence, he British born and talks a lots of sense and his policies make it seem certain entry requirements will be met. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jan_Vincent-Rostowski

      The Political situation in Poland is somewhat bonkers to be honest. the ‘Nationalists’ as you call them have a power base of the religious right. The main party (the PiS) are led by a man who is probably insane and has lost six elections in a row. His voter base is dying away as they tend to be older.

      Poland is strongly divided into Poland A and Poland B, where B is the Eastern Poland and rural and A is the Western Poland, urban, younger. Poland B hates and fears Russia and Germany. Poland A hates and fears Russia and wants to be pals with Germany, the West and the USA. Poland has been a independent country for 40 years out of the last 300 so their fears have some foundation. The polarization in Polish politics is shocking, the two sides seem to absolutely hate each other and get into petty and not so petty arguments.

      My suspicion is that Tusk (the leader of the current government, PO) will have a good chance of re-election with the continued economic growth and the PiS voters will die off. However, voters here are very fickle and will drop allegiance to parties at the drop of the hat. A new party (Palikot) which is anti-Church, pro-gay and pro-drugs went from 1% to 10% of the vote share in the last election.

      Tusks government lost 20% in the polls within weeks of the election but he could easily win it back. Money and national security go hand in hand and Poles are rabid capitalists, they want Nuclear power, shale gas – screw the environment. For now, anyway.

      As for the Zloty, it seems to be the risk takers currency. It very obviously undervalued. Wages are far below the EU average, as is the cost of food. If you look at the long term trend it has been appreciating, since 2008 its been up and down like a yoyo. At some point the credit rating should be upgraded – they are being mighty cautious given the economic numbers. Not that it matters, Poland can sell all the bonds it wants as they are snapped up. It even started selling Swiss nominated bonds.

      If you want more details, IM me as this is off topic.

    • #109249
      logan
      Participant

      Many thanks Peter.

    • #109281
      Anonymous
      Participant

      Mediocre Spanish politicians are playing chicken with Brussels, Germany, and the ECB. I read one Spanish columnist saying Rajoy is in a Seat, Merkel in a tank.

      http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/05/30/us-eurozone-spain-idUSBRE84T1FJ20120530

    • #109283
      logan
      Participant

      @mark wrote:

      Rajoy is in a Seat, Merkel in a tank.

      and a Tiger Tank to boot loaded up with Panzers. 😆 😆 😆
      Germany gives not one hoot for the struggling peripheral nations, it’s done and is doing very nicely danken.

    • #109287
      Anonymous
      Participant

      @mark wrote:

      Mediocre Spanish politicians are playing chicken with Brussels, Germany, and the ECB. I read one Spanish columnist saying Rajoy is in a Seat, Merkel in a tank.

      http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/05/30/us-eurozone-spain-idUSBRE84T1FJ20120530

      “They think here that Spain is a very important country and a crucial part of Europe,” said one long-time Madrid bank adviser. “But they forget that for the Germans, Spain is a minor country next to Greece and Italy.”

      And the Germans are just a bunch of arrogant freaks. Their main interest is to protect their banks who actually created all this mess in Spain and other places in Europe in the first place.

      I wonder what will happen if the Spaniards and Greeks and Italian really start to view Germans as the only responsible for all this saga.

    • #109289
      GarySFBCN
      Participant

      Germany being arrogant? In the history of the world, has this ever happened before?

      One wonders what kind of 3rd-world trash-bin Germany would be now had there not been risky investment after WWII.

      Maybe the Marshall Plan and other efforts were a mistake. Maybe Germany really needed harsh and ineffective ‘austerity measures.’

    • #109290
      Anonymous
      Participant

      @GarySFBCN wrote:

      Germany being arrogant? In the history of the world, has this ever happened before?

      One wonders what kind of 3rd-world trash-bin Germany would be now had there not been risky investment after WWII.

      Maybe the Marshall Plan and other efforts were a mistake. Maybe Germany really needed harsh and ineffective ‘austerity measures.’

      The Marshall plan was created to defeat the Russians and it backfired…

      Many nations in Europe still wait for war compensations from Germany, now it is the time that the Germans pay.

    • #109291
      GarySFBCN
      Participant

      flosmichael, if you speak Spanish and like old movies, do see Bienvenido Mr. Marshall.

      It’s a pretty funny movie from 1953. It is available on DVD.

    • #109292
      peterhun
      Participant

      I don’t believe the Marshall Plan made Germany what it is today – the Germans did.

    • #109294
      logan
      Participant

      In these troubled economic times it’s interesting for those who believe that history always repeats itself, to consider for a moment the Paris Peace Conference of 1919 and the treaty which laid the foundations of WW11. The victorious allies catastrophically deprived Germany of it’s industrial base and the means to make war.

      John Maynard Keynes was a delegate at the conference. He resigned in protest and went on to write an interesting critic called The Economic Consequences of the Peace. Well worth a read.
      http://modernism.research.yale.edu/wiki/index.php/The_Economic_Consequences_of_the_Peace

      The Marshall Plan after WW11 was an attempt to redress those mistakes of 1919. They tried the opposite tack and it produced the post war success Western Germany was and created a strong defence against the spread of communist expansion.

      I’m not a German basher. I believe Germany can be a positive force in Europe if it’s in their interests so to do. At the moment it is not. The main stream political thinking in Germany is if they change their treaties and constitution to accommodate the creation of Euro bonds and allow the ECB to lend directly to governments it will lead to disaster. The Germans have long memories and still remember the Weimar Republic and the hyperinflation which brought the country to it’s knees.
      http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Weimar_Republic

      The solution to the current crisis will come about when Germany finally realises it’s in their own best interest to relent. In other words when their own economy falters badly, unemployment rises and exports drop substantially.
      Unfortunately for the rest of Europe that will take quite a time and in the meanwhile the peripheral EU states will slow wither unless they can take decisive economic and political action of their own.
      I see no evidence among the current political leadership in these countries that there is any appetite for that.

    • #109303
      Anonymous
      Participant

      I saw/heard a Greek politician saying that Germans should now settle the WWII account with the Greeks.

    • #109304
      Anonymous
      Participant

      @shakeel wrote:

      I saw/heard a Greek politician saying that Germans should now settle the WWII account with the Greeks.

      They already did by spending so much euros on holidays on greek islands
      and helping them to get the EURO,
      even if they were not able to get it without cheating the rest of europe.

    • #109305
      Anonymous
      Participant

      @peterhun wrote:

      I don’t believe the Marshall Plan made Germany what it is today – the Germans did.

      I like this statement :mrgreen:

      Here one comment from “Reuters” – “Spain cries for help: is Berlin listening ?”

      After WW2, the Allies took a punitive view towards Germany and removed or destroyed about 80% of its industry. It got back on its feet, supported only socially & food-wise by the Marshall plan. Then it paid reparations, till 1952 in the case of Russia. Then it paid huge compensation towards Israel. Then the Russians got compensation. Then it paid a huge sum to take on East Germany.
      Then it went into recession (1990s).
      What did it do? Cry for help? No, it sat down and agreed to austerity. Workers went short time and found second, often menial, jobs.
      And Lo, another phoenix arises.
      Then (I think Jacque Delors) playing on the guilt factor, says, “If you want to be “good European” you must join my Euro idea.”

      And now; well, we know the next bit…

      Anyone seen Delors recently?

    • #109307
      katy
      Blocked

      I have come to the conclusion that you are all full if shite…sorry but it had to be said :mrgreen:

    • #109316
      peterhun
      Participant

      @sunwind wrote:


      After WW2, the Allies took a punitive view towards Germany and removed or destroyed about 80% of its industry. It got back on its feet, supported only socially & food-wise by the Marshall plan. Then it paid reparations, till 1952 in the case of Russia.

      Uk has only recently paid off the war loan to the USA. Its still paying the WW1 war loan.

      I don’t know what the UK did to be ‘punitive’, my understanding was its policy was to rebuild Germany, Volkswagon for instance.

    • #109318
      DBMarcos99
      Participant

      Are we sure there will still be a Euro in 2015, for Poland to join?

    • #109320
      Chopera
      Participant

      I think this link might even have been posted on this forum before:

      http://www.spiegel.de/international/germany/0,1518,769703,00.html

      Personally I’m with Sunwind to the extent that the real culprits are the people who designed the euro and then forced various countries to join, regardless of whether they were ready or not. Blaming different member states for basically sticking up for their sovereign rights just distracts from the source of the problem: the EU itself.

    • #109321
      Chopera
      Participant

      @sunwind wrote:


      Then it went into recession (1990s).
      What did it do? Cry for help? No, it sat down and agreed to austerity. Workers went short time and found second, often menial, jobs.
      And Lo, another phoenix arises.

      When Germany had her downturn during the early years of the euro it was allowed to run a budget deficit of nearly 6% (in fact it was the first country to break the Growth and Stability pact) and booming countries like Ireland and Spain were forced to accept very high inflation and credit booms while euro interest rates were kept low in order to help pull Germany out of recession. So no Germany didn’t cry for help, because it was getting plenty of help anyway. But now it’s the other way round Spain and Ireland don’t see much help coming from Germany, but instead a short sighted and economically ignorant lecture on how to keep deficits under control during a recession. The only surprise is that the cries for help haven’t become more menacing.

    • #109336
      DBMarcos99
      Participant

      An article here from the normally reputable cincodias (in Spanish) on how a Chinese investment fund are considering buying up a development on the coast for 30,000 Chinese pensioners. No real specifics given, and you would have thought the Chinese would be better waiting a few months to see if they can’t buy at half price if Spain leaves the Euro.

      http://www.cincodias.com/articulo/empresas/ciudad-chinos-costa-espanola/20120531cdscdsemp_1/

    • #109339
      katy
      Blocked

      How would they get permanent visas…they would have to change the law 😕 😕

    • #109341
      logan
      Participant

      Investors in Spain are heading for the exits not buying dodgy developments. €100bn pulled out in the last 3 months.
      http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/financialcrisis/9304028/Almost-100bn-pulled-out-of-Spain-as-investors-beat-a-hasty-retreat.html

    • #109388
      Anonymous
      Participant

      Today’s Telegraph, a more optimistic look:

      Still ‘plenty of incentives’ to move to Spain

    • #109395
      peterhun
      Participant

      @DBMarcos99 wrote:

      Are we sure there will still be a Euro in 2015, for Poland to join?

      I’d expect Germany and a few others to immediacy reform a Neuro, if it collapsed. It would limit the damage between those countries.

    • #109402
      katy
      Blocked

      @mark wrote:

      Today’s Telegraph, a more optimistic look:

      Still ‘plenty of incentives’ to move to Spain

      Mark you are well aware that this is not journalism, the Telegraph is noted for these articles which are actually advertising but dressed up as facts. All quotes from estate agents. There were a lot of these in the boom years…writing about all the thousands of people who had (were) bought off-plan and earnt 30% on their investment!

    • #109404
      DBMarcos99
      Participant

      @katy wrote:

      @mark wrote:

      Today’s Telegraph, a more optimistic look:

      Still ‘plenty of incentives’ to move to Spain

      Mark you are well aware that this is not journalism, the Telegraph is noted for these articles which are actually advertising but dressed up as facts. All quotes from estate agents. There were a lot of these in the boom years…writing about all the thousands of people who had (were) bought off-plan and earnt 30% on their investment!

      You may just have shot yourself in the foot. I suspect a lot of people will now click on the link to see what you were complaining about. Turns out the article actually gives a lot of facts. Of course if you disagree with those facts you can say so, but it’s a very informative, if short, article.

      A stronger pound and heavily discounted property prices mean there is still a great deal of interest in a move to Spain, particularly from retirees or long-term investors. By means of an example, the pictured Villamartin, in Costa Blanca, is currently for sale with HomeEspana for €149,995 – that’s around £120,500 at today’s exchange rate, compared with £131,900 a year ago.

    • #109405
      peterhun
      Participant

      70% LTV only, prices have fallen little and its unfordable. Yes, its informative.

    • #109406
      DBMarcos99
      Participant

      One statement from that article

      But if you are not a cash buyer, you may face obstacles. Expat buyers typically need a 40 per cent deposit for a mortgage from a Spanish bank, whereas the figure used to be nearer to 20 per cent.

      Is this correct? I’m assuming it is (and think it’s a sound policy actually, pity it was relaxed in the boom years), but wonder if anyone knows differently?

    • #109407
      Fuengi (Andrew)
      Participant

      @ DBmarcos

      pretty much.
      bank will finance 70% to non-residents. Included your 10% costs (approx) on top and you have 40%

      SOME banks in the past offered better deals, or based their loan on the valuation. Now they work on which ever is lower, the valuation or the buying price.

    • #109408
      Anonymous
      Participant

      Aren’t banks only willing to lend on their own repo properties? Has anyone tried to get a mortgage to buy a non bank repo? I wonder if they might really try to bend your arm to get you to buy one of theirs??

      Wouldn’t the villa in the article really only sell for about 80k, as per the current climate which is going down and down…..?

    • #109410
      Fuengi (Andrew)
      Participant

      @itsme wrote:

      Aren’t banks only willing to lend on their own repo properties? Has anyone tried to get a mortgage to buy a non bank repo? I wonder if they might really try to bend your arm to get you to buy one of theirs??

      Wouldn’t the villa in the article really only sell for about 80k, as per the current climate which is going down and down…..?

      banks are lending for the purchase or resale properties.
      they might, but in most cases banks do not offer the best prices.
      the property in the article is not a villa, its a small terraced house.
      based one the location, market segments that buy in the area, average prices, etc… i would say 80K€ probably about right.

    • #109412
      DBMarcos99
      Participant

      @ Fuengi Thanks for the (sensible) feedback. Always good to know these things.

    • #109413
      DBMarcos99
      Participant

      Vulture funds descend on Madrid

      http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/06/05/us-spain-funds-idUSBRE8540DW20120605

      But now fresh bank reforms will force Spain’s banks, particularly those getting public help, to set aside repossessed property by year-end for a fire-sale, while provisions to counter 137 billion euros ($169 billion) of potential losses should make it easier to sell assets at steep discounts.

      Some believe that is already having a knock-on effect on prices, with another banker saying funds were “smelling blood”.

      “The price at which banks would be willing to sell and investors willing to buy has narrowed a lot. That is a fact,” said a Madrid-based lawyer who has advised savings banks, or cajas, on restructuring.

      MORE PRESSURE

      Fortress Investment Group, Oak Hill, Corsair Capital, TPG, and Apollo are among many other firms looking at Spain’s banking sector, bankers said, with U.S. investment banks also in the mix.

      Private equity groups Lone Star and Blackstone, which have bought portfolios of distressed property loans from Britain’s bailed out Royal Bank of Scotland and Lloyds, could also look at Spain, industry sources said.

    • #109423
      katy
      Blocked

      There are NO facts in that article…since when did quoted estate agents deal in facts!! Those sort of articles led to loads of people buying from dodgy developers and left with unsellable and/or illegal properties. Talk about defending the indefensible.

      Is this the same telegraph that was telling everyone to BUY BUY BUY spanish property some years ago. Thei rent a quotes, estate agents were recommending punters to by two and sell one on for a whacking profit. Some of you have short memories.

    • #109432
      Fuengi (Andrew)
      Participant

      @katy wrote:

      <