[Tinnat]

Just looking at the market my corner of Spain, close to Barcelona, I get the impression that the market is reviving, for both sales and rentals. Estate agents have more property turnover than in the last three years (number of properties listed on their websites is changing daily) and there is more property available on habitaclia, idealista and fotocasa. Anyone care to comment about this? Market revival or seasonal changes?

[katy]

Wow this is late, usually these first swallow stories start after Xmas 😆

Strangely enough in todays El País there is a report that house sales were down 21% last month. 27% for new build. Perhaps your bit of Spain is different 🙄

[Tinnat]

I’m sorry, Katy, please keep your sarcasm to yourself. I have absolutely NO interest in promoting property markets. Mine was a genuine observation.

[Anonymous]

Tinnat, Katy is a very angry person 😕 😕 😕 on the costa del sol the real estate market has been getting better and better for a year now – daily reports show figures for new sales increasing dramatically as buyers take advantage of prices down by 30 to 70% depending on areas.

Real estate agents are opening up like mushrooms and with the high rents and fixed costs i guess they must be selling as they are not there just to shell out overheads; VIVA for example now have i think 12 branches on the coast and seem to be ramping up by the day; ok, they went bust once before but maybe the boss will do a Steve Jobs second time around. I watch the bank sites and they are selling anything good within days of coming up for sale.

Ok, the poor masses in Spain are not going to ever see the salaries they earned 10 years ago and 70% of the population will live on the breadline for a few decades but if one is buying in Eixample, barrio Salmanca, Sotogrande, MArbella et al well, Spain has changed but good properties in good areas are starting to fly !!! and of course, living is spain is the best !!!!!!! 😀 😀 😀 😀 😀 😀

[katy]

You can get as personal as you want….FACT it was in El Pais and Malaga sur this morning. I would rather believe official stats than a clapped out agent on the CDS. Sold those last 4 yet 😆

You are copying Mark now, he reckoned some are flying off the shelves, stop treating forum readers like idiots!

[angie]

Ubeda Paul, I don’t understand why you call katy very angry just because she posts her view which differs with yours, you’ve said similar to me before as well. katy has more knowledge of all things Spain than many others and invaluable to some thinking of moving there as logan had also, but now he seems to have left this forum by more and more commercialism, it’s no longer the unbiased insight it was. It used to be number 1 forum for Spanish property but it’s become somewhat confusing on it’s home page by promotional adverts 🙄 It needs to be balanced argument and facts not confusion 😕

[DBMarcos99]

@katy wrote:

Wow this is late, usually these first swallow stories start after Xmas 😆

Strangely enough in todays El País there is a report that house sales were down 21% last month. 27% for new build. Perhaps your bit of Spain is different 🙄

Could you link to statements like that – because so far as I know, we have figures for January that show sales of 30,569, the highest since May 2011 (if we exclude the tax change incentive sales measure dec 2012), and we don’t in fact have the February figures yet?

en enero de 2014 se vendieron 30.659 viviendas, un 35% más que el mes anterior, gracias al tirón de andalucía y la comunidad de madrid

http://www.idealista.com/news/archivo/2014/03/14/0725901-la-venta-de-viviendas-sube-en-enero-un-35-intermensual-por-el-impulso-de-andalucia-y-madrid

And a quick look at your beloved Sur in English shows this, which is a little different from your account http://www.surinenglish.com/20140314/news/costasol-malaga/property-sales-increased-more-201403141227.html
If you can link to a report stating house sales were down 21% last month (ie February 2014) it would be very interesting, and worrying!

[katy]

@DBMarcos99 wrote:

@katy wrote:

Wow this is late, usually these first swallow stories start after Xmas 😆

Strangely enough in todays El País there is a report that house sales were down 21% last month. 27% for new build. Perhaps your bit of Spain is different 🙄

And a quick look at your beloved Sur in English shows this, which is a little different from your account http://www.surinenglish.com/20140314/news/costasol-malaga/property-sales-increased-more-201403141227.html
If you can link to a report stating house sales were down 21% last month (ie February 2014) it would be very interesting, and worrying!

What are you on about…”my beloved Sur in English” 😮 I never read or quote that rag. It has the same sort of slant on news as Ubedas and yours. Yes it is Jan figures, didn’t realise they would be so late. Nevertheless they are still
D
O
W
N

[DBMarcos99]

@katy wrote:

@DBMarcos99 wrote:

@katy wrote:

Wow this is late, usually these first swallow stories start after Xmas 😆

Strangely enough in todays El País there is a report that house sales were down 21% last month. 27% for new build. Perhaps your bit of Spain is different 🙄

And a quick look at your beloved Sur in English shows this, which is a little different from your account http://www.surinenglish.com/20140314/news/costasol-malaga/property-sales-increased-more-201403141227.html
If you can link to a report stating house sales were down 21% last month (ie February 2014) it would be very interesting, and worrying!

What are you on about…”my beloved Sur in English” 😮 I never read or quote that rag. It has the same sort of slant on news as Ubedas and yours. Yes it is Jan figures, didn’t realise they would be so late. Nevertheless they are still
D
O
W
N

Nope – the figures for the month are up from the previous month. 35% UP

en enero de 2014 se vendieron 30.659 viviendas, un 35% más que el mes anterior, gracias al tirón de andalucía y la comunidad de madrid

And please don’t tell porkies. I’ve seen you quote Sur in English on many occasions on other talkboards – I’m not going to search on this talkboard, but it’d be surprising if you haven’t done the same here.

Edit, changed my mind, did a quick search and guess what Katy said previously:

…

The only thing that has changed is that spanish ex-pats changed the land “deals” to UK land because it sounded more stable than spanish land. About 18 months ago I saw an ad’ in sur in english “operators wanted for our call centre in elviria to sell land” 🙄

A report said that a third of all boiler rooms in the world are run from Spain.

[GarySFBCN]

I saw the article on El Pais that Katy referenced – 21% fewer sales, 27% fewer for new builds.

Also there is this “Spain sees 42-percent spike in mortgage defaults”

http://elpais.com/elpais/2014/03/12/inenglish/1394623906_035437.html

On the other hand, there are companies that see real estate investment opportunities now. And also there is this:

“Billionaire Paulson Plans to Invest in Spanish Real Estate IPO”

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-03-03/billionaire-paulson-plans-to-invest-in-spanish-real-estate-ipo.html

and this:

“Soros and Paulson each take €92m bet on Spanish real estate”

http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/b27ca91e-9fa7-11e3-b6c7-00144feab7de.html

So the news accounts can make any case regarding how ‘the market’ is moving. It is a turbulent time, but through the lens of global real estate values, Spain is a bargain.

The traditional markets – such as British expats pensioners, hoping to live cheaply in Spain, many of whom appear to have made the move without adequate analysis of the potential risks, are no longer valid.

For better or worse, the market will flourish with purchases by those directly or indirectly profiting from the economic bubble of the moment.

[katy]

I saw the article on El Pais that Katy referenced – 21% fewer sales, 27% fewer for new builds.

Also there is this “Spain sees 42-percent spike in mortgage defaults”

http://elpais.com/elpais/2014/03/12/inenglish/1394623906_035437.html

I rest my case. Marcos you have a habit of twisting the truth, try getting a job with some of the Spanish media….or ask Mark about jobs flogging timeshare….er……Fractional ownership…he may need a copy writer 😆 😆

Just from items on this forum.

House sales down Aug. 15%. Sept 8.6%. Oct 12%…infact the number of houses sold has been down for the last consecutive 8 months

[DBMarcos99]

@katy wrote:

I saw the article on El Pais that Katy referenced – 21% fewer sales, 27% fewer for new builds.

Also there is this “Spain sees 42-percent spike in mortgage defaults”

http://elpais.com/elpais/2014/03/12/inenglish/1394623906_035437.html

I rest my case. Marcos you have a habit of twisting the truth, try getting a job with some of the Spanish media….or ask Mark about jobs flogging timeshare….er……Fractional ownership…he may need a copy writer 😆 😆

Just from items on this forum.

House sales down Aug. 15%. Sept 8.6%. Oct 12%…infact the number of houses sold has been down for the last consecutive 8 months

No Katy – I have just shown on here how you have LIED to us all. You stated you never read “Sur in English” yet it was easy to find a quote of yours trying to use that newspaper’s adverts to back up your argument.

And no good talking about default mortgage numbers (which is another argument).
The FACT is that house sales increased 35% from December 2013 to January 2014

en enero de 2014 se vendieron 30.659 viviendas, un 35% más que el mes anterior, gracias al tirón de andalucía y la comunidad de madrid

(the third time I’ve had to quote this)

Now that increase may be a blip, but it seems to back the OP who says he’s seen increased activity.
No-one here, apart from Katy and angie is trying to twist this. But let’s see February and March’s figures before we draw strong conclusions hey?

[katy]

Twisting and turning now you say But let’s see February and March’s figures before we draw strong conclusions hey?

Did not the stats from the last 8 months give any conclusions 🙄

House sales down Aug. 15%. Sept 8.6%. Oct 12%…infact the number of houses sold has been down for the last consecutive 8 months

And no good talking about default mortgage numbers (which is another argument).

I wasn’t actually speaking about them, Gary mentioned them. 😯

[angie]

Marcos, where have I tried to ‘twist this’ as you accuse me of on this topic? 😆

[Anonymous]

have you two moved in together yet?? At least you have UK TV channels 😆 😆 😆 😆 😆 😆 😆 :lol:, we can send you spanish lemons 😡 😡 😡 😡 😡

[angie]

You’re a sad little man Paul Ubeda, you lurk in shadows and pop up whenever your mate posts or just to WUM posters who differ with your views, why don’t you move in with him in Madrid you Durian eater? 😆 😆 😆 😆 😆 😆 😆 😆 😆 Be a man and and don’t hide behind the name of a town with awful road-humps you wimp 😆 😆 😆

[Anonymous]

@Tinnat wrote:

I’m sorry, Katy, please keep your sarcasm to yourself. I have absolutely NO interest in promoting property markets. Mine was a genuine observation.

This is typical. Any attempt to have a thoughtful discussion about the current situation and you get accused of being an agent talking up the market.

[katy]

@mark wrote:

@Tinnat wrote:

I’m sorry, Katy, please keep your sarcasm to yourself. I have absolutely NO interest in promoting property markets. Mine was a genuine observation.

This is typical. Any attempt to have a thoughtful discussion about the current situation and you get accused of being an agent talking up the market.

Huh…no comment about the personal abuse when I post an official item from El Pais saying that sales are down…you yourself wrote last August of sales dropping and they have continued to drop. Some insight you are giving ignoring INS stats and defending a bloke who claims things are looking up….real professionalism, do you realise how pathetic you sound joining in the bitching 🙄 A thoughtful discussion, without including the stats in the Spanish newspapers 😯 😯

I can just imagine you giving investor advice…”well official stats say that sales have been dropping for 8 months but an anonymous bloke on my forum says things are picking up”….Great stuff 😆 😆 😆 😆

[katy]

@mark wrote:

@Tinnat wrote:

I’m sorry, Katy, please keep your sarcasm to yourself. I have absolutely NO interest in promoting property markets. Mine was a genuine observation.

This is typical. Any attempt to have a thoughtful discussion about the current situation and you get accused of being an agent talking up the market.

Does your idea of a thoughtful discussion include your “insight” in October….”Property sales down 28% in August” Here is a reminder of your report!

http://www.spanishpropertyinsight.com/2013/10/21/home-sales-28pc-august-say-notaries/

Has things changed since then…..NO Insight my arse 🙄

[Anonymous]

@katy wrote:

You are copying Mark now, he reckoned some are flying off the shelves, stop treating forum readers like idiots!

The insult was not lost on me 😉

Some properties are selling well, and foreign demand for property in Spain is indisputably growing.

I know the market is still in deep trouble, but I also see some positive signs. Can I mention this? Can we discuss the Spanish property market in this forum now that there are signs of improvement? Not whilst anyone who suggests things are getting better is treated like an idiot. 😕

I welcome scepticism in this forum, but not to the point of banality. If necessary, I’ll create a “Never buy in Spain” thread where I can dump posts that just poison otherwise interesting discussions.

[katy]

Have I ever said never buy in Spain…NO

It’s your forum, you can do what you want but if you censor it by dumping posts that are negative what do you have to offer that is different to a score of other biased “property forums”.

Are you saying that El Pais did not report that January sales fell by 21% and new properties by 27% do you want to censor this!!!! As I said pathetic 🙄

You say someone is treated like an idiot….who? You comment on that but condone bullying and posters calling people liars.

[Anonymous]

Katy, the bottom line is, I don’t like rudeness.

[katy]

@mark wrote:

Katy, the bottom line is, I don’t like rudeness.

neither do i but the fact is I get lots of flack for being off message. You have on occasions been rude yourself.

[Anonymous]

Just been reading in the sunday papers about the huge funds storming in buying up thousands of cheap properties; Messrs Gates, Soros, Buffet amongst others !!!! there is a huge revival and mainly because Spain is now cheap !!!!! Flats in good areas in Madrid for example are dirt cheap and buyers are snapping them up !!! Slowly Spain is getting its act together and the prices of all services are way down and the quality is way up – they are learning that spitting poison at the customer is not the way ahead …..

These huge international companies have done their homework – they are not buying entire areas/ urbanizations for nothing!!! As they say at Orange, the future is bright!!! at least for a foreigner buying a pad here for full time or part time living !!! 🙂 🙂 🙂

[Anonymous]

Well I’ll add a little personal perspective.

The last time I posted (I think it was the last) I said that I had been wishing to buy in Spain for more than a couple of years but just couldn’t bring myself to do it given the outlook for the market. Finally, I am taking the jump and buying.

I recognise that there are dangers and I am doing this with no expectation of making capital gain. The costs involved (taxes, etc.) make that unlikely even if the market lifts a bit. My main motivation is that I want a place to live in that I can fit out and modify to my own tastes and desires, so renting is not an option.

At the location where I am buying the agencies are buzzing. I have been into the one selling to me on 4 occasions over the past couple of weeks and there have always been other customers in the office. There are 5 staff all of whom are busy.

I’d disagree that there is a market revival and I hold that opinion due to the figures I’ve seen recently, and which have been referred to in this thread. That said, I do believe that in the right places the price drops are slowing, and that is allowing people to enter the market with the feeling that they won’t make huge losses. There isn’t a massive volume, but propery is shifting.

One more thing. I do hope that comparing volumes with the peak will always show fewer now than then. God forbid that we ever get back to people buying properties in places they’ve never been to, off-plan, while sat in a hotel conference room on a Sunday afternoon.

[GarySFBCN]

As I wrote earlier, there are news articles to make the case that the market is improving and news articles to make the case the things are the same or getting worse.

But there is one truth: In the history of real estate markets, nobody has accurately predicted when a particular market hits bottom.

It may have been a few weeks ago or it may happen a few decades in the future.

But given there are no guarantees in life, if you want to move to Spain and you have evaluated the risks and analysed the costs, buy now.

If you have any second thoughts, don’t buy now.

[angie]

katy, just to clarify things here which Mark doesn’t censor is the initial rudeness of 2 other posters to those who post any counter balance or even just post something. 🙄 😡 One reason why Logan who talked sense has left 😉

Back to market revival, well sales need desperately to pick up just because of the huge glut of properties still for sale, this will still take years to absorb and until Spain reduces it’s rip-off transaction costs (up to 20% to buy and re-sell) the thought of making a profit for a long time disappears, so it’s only worth buying Spanish property to live in and not for investment. Remember too, Stg/Euro exchange rate dropped 25% from it’s peak effectively halving the 50% supposed falls in prices for British buyers. That is not the same problem for buyers from the Eurozone 🙄

[katy]

Well Angie I have just looked back to what I posted seeing as it caused such “outrage” amongst 2or3 adult males. Here it, is, I admit to the sarcasm but anyone who has been around a few years is aware that people with vested interests have always tried a relaunch every year. So forgive the cynicism but why all the agressiveness because I posted a genuine article from a Spanish national newspaper.

Is it because some of you only want the “insight” that you want to portray

@katy wrote:

Wow this is late, usually these first swallow stories start after Xmas 😆

Strangely enough in todays El País there is a report that house sales were down 21% last month. 27% for new build. Perhaps your bit of Spain is different 🙄

Not exactly rude is it compared with what followed from the usual male bullies!!

[Tinnat]

Katy, I am not male, and I have no vested interests. The aggressiveness you received is your own doing. You sound like a very sour person.

[katy]

What is sour about posting official stats. Seems to me you are the one that is sour!

[Tinnat]

I rest my case, Katy.

[katy]

@Tinnat wrote:

I rest my case, Katy.

Good as I am out for the day 😆

[Chopera]

Since nobody seems to have posted the article Katy and Gary referred to, here it is:

http://economia.elpais.com/economia/2014/03/14/actualidad/1394786074_109336.html

It states that sales were 23% lower in January 2014 than January 2013 according to INE data.

It also states that the number of transactions for January 2014 was the highest since February 2013.

i.e. the number of transactions has been going up in recent months, but is still not to the levels of Feb 2013.

Furthermore, the article clearly states that the data actually refers to transactions that took place towards the end of 2012 and 2013 respectively.

As a few on here will know, the end of 2012 saw a surge in transactions as buyers tried to beat the end of desgravación (a tax rebate on mortgage repayments) so it is to be expected that any stats measured relative to that spike will show a drop in sales.

The article also mentions the Consejo General de Notario’s data which has shown an increase in sales volumes as well.

And for what it’s worth I get the impression the market stabilizing in the Madrid area as well (e.g. a few properties near me have sold)

So the question is, Katy, why didn’t you post the link to the article?

You obviously liked the headline because it fits in with your agenda, but the actual content of the article might not have been to your liking so much?

Maybe you preferred to mislead the forum as well as start your usual pathetic little spats as a diversion from the fact that the OP might have genuinely noticed some activity in the market?

[Tinnat]

By the way, the changes I’ve been seeing relate mostly to the last three or four weeks or so, hence my wondering whether the new market activity was just a seasonal adjustment.

[Chopera]

@Tinnat wrote:

By the way, the changes I’ve been seeing relate mostly to the last three or four weeks or so, hence my wondering whether the new market activity was just a seasonal adjustment.

I’ve noticed that banks are advertising mortgages a lot more (doesn’t mean they are necessarily lending more though). So that might have allowed for some of the slack to have been taken up.

Personally I think the overall Spanish market is going to trundle along the ground for several years yet. There’s still some austerity to come, with various experts recommending more tax rises (IBI, retroactive end to desgravación, imputed tax on your first home, they were even talking about 21% IVA on new property at one point 😯 ) and on top of that there is the threat of eurozone rate rises.

[kgpoc]

Good time to enter in here on the thread of foreign companies buying… So just back from meetings in the US where investing in Europe was the main topic. I we had a number of bankers in presenting their points of growth, investment desicions & prospects.

Reasons why the foreign funds were buying in spain were (in order of importance) #1. Spreading Risk, # 2. Euro Strength, #3. No longterm labour/salary burden, #4 growth prospect. #5 asset appreciation

So, no fund has invested in # 5, (it was #1 or #2 as the driver). In the footnotes one fund saw greater than 5 years to get to BE in european terms but anticipate it will be closer to be 3 using U$ dollar funds through foreign structured company vehicle.

The evidence the consulting groups sited was is in the amount that funds have placed in Spain and the type of investments. No fund has placed even .25 of 1 % in completed Spanish property yet have 3%-5% in companies like Coke etc. The funds do not want any form of company or labour or product that comes out of Spain (if they are not already based here). They want a completed asset where they can lock the door for 5 years and let the Euro and time do the work for them. Or better yet, let the Germans play out the ECB to not destroy the money and the vacationing Northern europeans to let the country of Spain tick over.

Notice still that all large investments have only come from the US, (the UK & German investment company even with all their money and gains to date will not take a punt, because the market charateristics are too close to their own). Look back at the reasons, Germany has all the same #1, #2, #3, and a little of #4. So if we are talking about Asset Gains, the proof is in the pudding, please do not be fooled.

(the outcome of our conference) My company is looking to add a little here in Spain. We have nothing, other than a holding company but this is a consolidation out of the UK, Germany and Italy. It is growing becuase many operations companies are moving factory operations to Madrid. It is much cheaper, high quality of technical labor (who do not like to move) and the companies we support are growing their spanish operations to take over more mential tasks. Basically many additive functions, retrofitting of industrial machinery, special/unusual requests will be handled in Spain other than in each country. So, we are not looking at growth or that belief, it is a net 0 effect in Europe over 3 years. We see wage pressure in the UK and Germany now and becoming worse within 1-2 years (for lower to average salaries), but do not anticipate we will need to move Salaries here in Spain for a minimum of 4-5 years due mainly to cheap housing being available for all 5 years. That is also some of the reasons why we are not looking at Barcelona.

[katy]

Chopera I don’t link when on iPad or phone, too fiddley. The slant you and El Pais is claiming doesn’t stand up when you take the stats that’s sales are down for the last 8 months

Spanish newspapers always seek a positive note such as sales down but not as much as last month. They are as unbiased as this forum

Of course what does official figures compare with a posters facts that their local EA’s Are busy…now that’s real insight. Sorry to put my sarcastic hat back on but some of this is ludicrous.

[Tinnat]

Katy. I was talking about the last 3 weeks. Wondering. Questioning. Not imagining, speculating, assuming. Oh my.

[GarySFBCN]

@kgpoc wrote:

Good time to enter in here on the thread of foreign companies buying… So just back from meetings in the US where investing in Europe was the main topic. I we had a number of bankers in presenting their points of growth, investment desicions & prospects.

Reasons why the foreign funds were buying in spain were (in order of importance) #1. Spreading Risk, # 2. Euro Strength, #3. No longterm labour/salary burden, #4 growth prospect. #5 asset appreciation. . .

Thank you for your post – I found it to be very interesting.

[Chopera]

@katy wrote:

Chopera I don’t link when on iPad or phone, too fiddley. The slant you and El Pais is claiming doesn’t stand up when you take the stats that’s sales are down for the last 8 months

Spanish newspapers always seek a positive note such as sales down but not as much as last month. They are as unbiased as this forum

Of course what does official figures compare with a posters facts that their local EA’s Are busy…now that’s real insight. Sorry to put my sarcastic hat back on but some of this is ludicrous.

It says that monthly sales compared to the same month in 2013 have been down for 9 months:

En el primer mes del 2014, la compraventa de viviendas registró una caída de un 23,2% respecto al mismo mes de 2013, hasta un total de 30.659 operaciones y de esta manera suma nueve meses consecutivos a la baja, según la oficina nacional de estadística.

This is not the same as saying sales have been going down for the last 9 months.

In fact the following paragraph goes on to say that the transaction numbers for Jan 2014 were the highest since Feb 2013:

De acuerdo con las cifras el Instituto Nacional de Estadística (INE), publicadas este viernes, el descenso interanual se ha debido, sobre todo, al retroceso en la compraventa de pisos nuevos, con una caída del 27,5%, con 14.527 operaciones. Por su parte, la compraventa de viviendas de segunda mano descendió un 18,9%, hasta 16.132 operaciones. En ambos casos, se trata de la cifra más elevada de transacciones desde febrero de 2013.

This implies that sales volumes are at their highest since Feb 2013 but still way down from Jan 2013. We know that sales volumes fell of a cliff after Jan/Feb 2013 – it was reported on here – and we know why. So this is to be expected. When the Jan/Feb 2013 spike falls out of the stats in March we can expect to see an increased number of transactions relative to a year ago.

Or to show it graphically:

See how that bar on the right is the highest since Feb 2013? See how there was a spike for Jan/Feb 2013? Also note how transactions were up in Jan 2014 compared to the previous month by quite a lot, and were quite a lot higher than December 2012

[DBMarcos99]

Thank you Chopera for that graph, that shows a noticeable, if fragile upturn in sales over the last couple months.
I think a lot now rests on the situation in the Ukraine, believe it or not. If confidence dips as a consequence of sanctions, then the economy (and demand for houses) could slip back into decline, in all of Europe.

[Anonymous]

Seriously? The situation in Ukraine is going to effect demand for houses across Europe? I’ll agree to disagree on that one. Should I choose to sell my house in the West Midlands of the UK, I am pretty sure that what happens in the Ukraine will not matter in the least.

[DBMarcos99]

@Horlics wrote:

Seriously? The situation in Ukraine is going to effect demand for houses across Europe? I’ll agree to disagree on that one. Should I choose to sell my house in the West Midlands of the UK, I am pretty sure that what happens in the Ukraine will not matter in the least.

The point is, if there is a an economic trade war – Russia stops trading, pulls its investment money out of Europe, stops supplying gas, stops its tourists etc., it will result in an economic turndown.

[katy]

The historic Madrid building Edificio España which Banco Santander has been trying to get shot of for ages is once again in the news. Now claimed that Mexicans, Brazilians and Chinese are “interested” although no-one has put in an offer. What happened to the Russians 😆

http://economia.elpais.com/economia/2014/03/18/actualidad/1395133316_442998.html

[katy]

@mark wrote:

I welcome scepticism in this forum, but not to the point of banality. If necessary, I’ll create a “Never buy in Spain” thread where I can dump posts that just poison otherwise interesting discussions.

Perhaps you should also create a pie in the sky thread too where all sightings of full estate agents, 2 extra cranes appearing, and inter-galatic travel for weekenders can be dumped. 😉

[katy]

@Tinnat wrote:

Katy, I am not male, and I have no vested interests. The aggressiveness you received is your own doing. You sound like a very sour person.

So you do admit that some posts aimed at me were aggressive. next time I mention a newspaper report that the clique don’t like I better wear a tin hat 🙄

[Chopera]

@katy wrote:

The historic Madrid building Edificio España which Banco Santander has been trying to get shot of for ages is once again in the news. Now claimed that Mexicans, Brazilians and Chinese are “interested” although no-one has put in an offer. What happened to the Russians 😆

http://economia.elpais.com/economia/2014/03/18/actualidad/1395133316_442998.html

Two other derelict buildings in Plaza España are becoming hotels, and 4 Seasons are meant to be moving into another part of Madrid. Given tourist numbers to Madrid were down heavily last year one wonders how they are going to fill them.

[Anonymous]

Why Soros and Paulson’s bet on Spain could pay off
http://www.cnbc.com/id/101483247

[Anonymous]

Spain Shows Signs of a Property Revival says the Wall St. Journal.

http://online.wsj.com/news/articles/SB10001424052702303287804579447411682460276

[kgpoc]

The analyst in me has just kicked in reading those articles (sorry, and I am an ass)!

1. So Soros and Paulson put up 350 million or so for a ‘good investment’ in Spain. So split down the middle, lets say Soros puts in 175 million, hell his fund made 23 billion last year, so he is not even putting up 1.5% of what he made, let alone the actual size of the funds. That shows confidence in the market, REALLY?

2. They all waited until REITs were formed to keep their portion of the invesment liquid and less burdened from taxes. So this makes you able to last longer and highlights the currrent tax structure on buying property is not actually favourable under current market conditions. Or stated better; even for supper rich people putting pocket change into the market as a current individual investor was too risky!

3. The REIT’s have not even brought the property and are still not expected too until later in the year. WHAT! So basically they do not believe we are the bottom either. Close to the bottom may be, but then again in the REIT if the bottom is not later in 2014 they will just hold off, not like an individual investor.

4. The REITs only talk about investing in Office buildings. So housing as an ‘investment’ under current conditions are still not investable.

Now if you want to buy and live in it.. Go ahead.

[DBMarcos99]

The story has apparently been confirmed – the richest man in China has bought the Edificio España near Plaza de España

http://www.huffingtonpost.es/2014/03/19/venta-edificio-espana_n_4992106.html

[katy]

Confirmed….hmmmm

http://ccaa.elpais.com/ccaa/2014/03/19/madrid/1395232568_768891.html

[Anonymous]

Another off plan project (in Marbellous Marbella) has NOW sold out before the foundations have been laid . Located in Los Naranjos near Puerto Banus a project of 21 townhouses sold out totally before the the sales office was erected. Now they dont have to do one. 😮 😮 😮

An outfit called imobiliaria del Sur from Sevilla and listed on the Sp stock exchange built at least five hundred similar boxes during the boom and sold them all. They also built some luxury flats selling at €1,000,000 a piece in 2008; they’re still trying to shift these!!! 😥 😥

Taylor Wimpy have all but sold out on their projects in San Pedro (an up and coming extension of Marbella) and have just announced a new front line beach project just east of Estepona. Apparently they’re overwhelmed by the pre lim interest!!! 😀 😀 😀 😀

Market revival is accurate in many parts of Spain!!! that is for sure – the no go areas hawked by the Brit agents in the early 2000’s will stay no go until a boom is well and truly underway – if a boom ever comes 2020? – but in the meantime if you’ve got the money and fancy living somewhere great it’s time to bag a good deal before it’s too late – you’ve got another year !!! 8) 8)

It’s also lemon season now if you two want to pop over and inspect the revival in situ 😡 😡 😡 😡

[katy]

Taylor wimpy again…tell the truth you work for them 😆 don’t tell me they have sold the last 4 they have been flogging for years 😆 we used to have a house adjoining Los Naranjos golf course. Suprised they have any room for building one house let alone 21 😯 why are people buying off plan, are they crazy, hundreds of properties around there on sale.

[angie]

So as it’s Durian season for the usual suspect how does he explain this article?

http://www.ibtimes.com/spain-property-market-outlook-2014-home-price-may-fall-another-15-1553610

Not forgetting that there are 100’s of re-sales on TW sites etc all competing with their new-builds, so which are the better bargains, meaning that their sales of last few years have become re-sales at discounted prices, remember it’s often naive people’s life savings you’re playing with here and have been pushing for last few years 😯 😡

[Chopera]

@angie wrote:

So as it’s Durian season for the usual suspect how does he explain this article?

http://www.ibtimes.com/spain-property-market-outlook-2014-home-price-may-fall-another-15-1553610

Not forgetting that there are 100’s of re-sales on TW sites etc all competing with their new-builds, so which are the better bargains, meaning that their sales of last few years have become re-sales at discounted prices, remember it’s often naive people’s life savings you’re playing with here and have been pushing for last few years 😯 😡

After five years of double-dip recession, Spain’s economy seems to have stopped sinking. But the recovery will be a prolonged one. Despite having fallen almost 40 percent since the housing bubble burst in late 2007, home prices in the euro zone’s fourth-largest economy are expected to drop by another 10 percent to 15 percent before they stabilize.

I’d say the market is actually 60% off peak prices, meaning those further 10% to 15% drops the article mentions have already taken place. As ever the problem is that nobody has got very reliable price data to work off, which means any conclusions drawn from the price data are at best approximate.

[angie]

Actually chopera your analysis could be right, the article predicts further falls but they may already be priced in. As usual with Spain the data comes from here there and everywhere and is not very reliable as you say 😉

My post was in response to banal posts by Ubeda such as his last 3 paras, 2 of which are real vested interest even that old misleading OTT hype that used to be the case, and his last but often quoted wum para. Now if he really wants to know how many TW re-sales there are on the CDS I’d be happy to oblige, and not forgetting many of those sites he was pushing 2-3 years ago have dropped in price and become cheaper and plentiful re-sales, I wonder what some of those purchasers think now? 🙄 Dangerous talk by the chap, and yes Ubeda I will be popping over shortly to check the facts around Marbella, probably bump into you again 😆

[Anonymous]

@Chopera wrote:

I’d say the market is actually 60% off peak prices, meaning those further 10% to 15% drops the article mentions have already taken place. As ever the problem is that nobody has got very reliable price data to work off, which means any conclusions drawn from the price data are at best approximate.

Depends where, but in lots of places I’d say it’s even more, at least based on anecdotes. In this forum and comments in the blog several people have reported they can’t sell with 70pc discounts. Last week I went to see a bank repo development in Almeria where a penthouse just sold for €130,000 (Norwegian buyer). An identical unit sold in 2006 for €370,000. That’s 65% off.

Some recent figures I’ve seen suggest Madrid is 60% off. But in places like Barcelona or Ibiza, however, it’s more like 30% to 40%.

[katy]

Anyone paying that money for an apartment in fly ridden Almeria must have been crazy. The point is those discounts are false, they were all overpriced by chancers and that is the reason they are in the hands of banks. Same in Marbella, some in the £300,000 range years ago were only truly worth around £170,000 before the crash

[Chopera]

@mark wrote:

@Chopera wrote:

I’d say the market is actually 60% off peak prices, meaning those further 10% to 15% drops the article mentions have already taken place. As ever the problem is that nobody has got very reliable price data to work off, which means any conclusions drawn from the price data are at best approximate.

Depends where, but in lots of places I’d say it’s even more, at least based on anecdotes. In this forum and comments in the blog several people have reported they can’t sell with 70pc discounts. Last week I went to see a bank repo development in Almeria where a penthouse just sold for €130,000 (Norwegian buyer). An identical unit sold in 2006 for €370,000. That’s 65% off.

Some recent figures I’ve seen suggest Madrid is 60% off. But in places like Barcelona or Ibiza, however, it’s more like 30% to 40%.

Yup I was basing my statement on Madrid, even though that varies greatly according to the area. I can’t imagine any of the Balearics being 60% down. Either way, I think the price stats reported always tend to be on the high side, but especially now.

Ultimately I don’t think such data are that important for buying decisions these days. It’s a bit silly to delay a buying decision because some nationwide market indicator hints there might still be a bit of a downward trend. If you know your area and you know you are getting good value then you might as well buy sooner than later.

As an anecdote, flats in my urb were selling at €450k at peak, we bought ours for €330k 3 years ago, and last year one sold for €190k. There’s now a bank repo on the market for just under €150k and the consierge tells me that anybody viewing the property has been told by the bank that it’s theirs for €90k. The downside is you’ve got a family living in it who don’t pay anything, and you’ve got to kick them out somehow.

[The Australian]

G’day, how is it going the unemployment rate?

[katy]

About 26.2 nationally. Around 33% in Andalucia.

[DBMarcos99]

This article (in Spanish) asks if the Chinese are buying up Spain. It points out that in one street within metres of Edificio España (bought last week by China’s richest man) there are 18 Chinese businesses

A escasos metros, cruzando la Plaza de España, se encuentra la calle Leganitos, el «China Town» madrileño, con 18 comercios chinos en apenas 300 metros. Peluquerías, librerías e incluso una autoescuela solo para chinos.

http://www.abc.es/economia/20140322/abci-comunidad-china-compra-espana-201403211831.html

[katy]

Well they are certainly taking over Spains cities with tat shops

[angie]

Dignity march ended with more riots in Madrid last night, the populace want to know why they are still suffering with austerity measures whilst the profligate Spanish banks were bailed out to such an extent 🙄

[Anonymous]

populace???? nobody cares about “them” 😛 😛 😛 😛 😛 😛 😛 😛 the days of sponging from the state are coming to an end – there is no hiding place anymore – as Norman Teb said ” get on your bike” the problem here is nobody can tell the truth otherwise they lose their juicy job 😆 😆 😆 😆 😆

[angie]

Your post almost seems polite Ubeda, have you had a transplant? 😆 You’re possibly correct though about ‘populace’, they are the easy targets by Governments everywhere 🙄

[DBMarcos99]

If we are talking about general economic revival (not just the housing sector) there can be no doubt now that many sectors are getting better. Exports are up, tourist numbers are still increasing, and investment is rising:
http://www.staffingindustry.com/eng/Research-Publications/Daily-News/Spain-Foreign-investments-driving-job-creation-29442

“Spain’s qualified and flexible labour force, its competitive production costs and its strategic location make it very attractive,” said Manuel Fernandez Ortega, who manages Bayer’s Langreo plant. The company, which employs about 2,160 people in five Spanish facilities.
Automobile manufacturers are also betting on Spain. General Motors Co. (GM) invested €165 million in its Figueruelas plant in 2013 and plans to spend another €210 million this year. Renault SA (RNO) will create 250 jobs in its Valladolid factory in 2014 as it increases output, Spain Chairman Jose Vicente de los Mozos said this week.

Of course, as the article concludes, there is still a long way to go. And in most areas, the oversupply of houses will surely keep house prices low for some time yet. Which is actually good news for first time buyers and investors. Not so for those who need to sell.

[Tinnat]

At the risk of drawing the ire of Katy 8) , the number of properties (affluent, close to Barcelona) in my town advertised as for sale on the Internet has gone up quite sharply. I’m seeing fresh properties as well as properties which have been half-heartedly advertised years ago.

[DBMarcos99]

@Tinnat wrote:

At the risk of drawing the ire of Katy 8) , the number of properties (affluent, close to Barcelona) in my town advertised as for sale on the Internet has gone up quite sharply. I’m seeing fresh properties as well as properties which have been half-heartedly advertised years ago.

Interesting – but it hasn’t yet been translated into an increase in sales? So far as I’m aware the number of properties sold is still in decline, although we only have figures up until February…

[Tinnat]

I agree, DB Marcos99. Still, it must mean something, at the very least hope on the part of the sellers that the market is now doing better.

[katy]

….and at the risk of provoking your venom and insults from the forum owner, an official report out yesterday said that Spanish property sales were down 27.8% in February 🙄

Much more reliable than posts that “I notice…” “I was talking to….” Fiction

[Tinnat]

@katy wrote:

….and at the risk of provoking your venom and insults from the forum owner, an official report out yesterday said that Spanish property sales were down 27.8% in February 🙄

Much more reliable than posts that “I notice…” “I was talking to….” Fiction

I will avoid diplomatic speak, and “rubbish” your analysis, Katy. The stats are (1) for all of Spain; (2) issued with a delay; (3) covering all types of property. What I and other NEUTRAL persons see on the ground is more reliable. I suppose time will tell, if I am over-optimistic or if it is Katy who is super-pessimistic.

[katy]

You do spout some rubbish…they aren’t Katy figures they are Spanish Government figures. SALES WERE DOWN IN ALL REGIONS EXCEPT THE CANARIES. Do you really think the Government would be pessimistic.

Here is the link for the flat earthers and sales agents who fantasise

http://www.thelocal.es/20140409/spains-property-sales-plummet-in-february

[DBMarcos99]

according to this, both enquiries AND sales transactions are up in the Marbella area. It will be interesting to see this translate to the country overall – that’s the nature of cycles.

http://michel-cruz.rimontgo.com/freelance-writing/has-marbella-entered-a-new-growth-cycle/

In Marbella, enquiries and sales transactions are up. The luxury segment was the first to recover, with prices in the best areas bottoming out earlier and demand reaching a sustained critical mass, but it is interesting to note that online home finder Kyero registered a surge in enquiries for cheaper properties. Last year 47 per cent of their enquiries were for homes under €150,000 compared with 36 per cent the year before – and eight per cent in 2008. “Perception may be behind reality now, as the actual amount of unsold and ‘distressed’ stock in the Marbella area is fast running out,” says Mark Stücklin of Spanish Property Insight

[katy]

Sales aren’t up in Marbella, I know an Agent. Anyway that was written but Mark.

If you want my analysis instead of official figures, sales are even more down than stated because they include inheritances and gifts.

Anyway you can twist it all you want. Fact is sales are DOWN. New mortgages granted are DOWN too…by over 30%

I really do apologise for posting the truth 🙄

[Tinnat]

Katy clearly follows a different sector of the market in Marbella, is not aware at all of what is happening in the Barcelona region, and for goodness knows what purpose, she is intent of sounding ominous at all costs.

[katy]

I am only the messenger but yes it is dire! I prefer to rely on Government stats rather than a few on a forum who make their living out of property in one way or another. Talk from Agents and Developers isn’t accurate, they would bullshit their own Grandmother.

Tell me is there anyone out there who believes stories like

“I have been talking to an agent/Developer and they told me sales are increasing”

“I have been looking on the internet/walking round the town and things appear to be getting better”

That,s insight is it 😆 😆 Don’t forget to tell us when someone opens a new Brit bar or a Chinese all you can eat…now they are real indicators 🙄 🙄

Oh and if you care to look back the last few years we have had to put up with the same sales are increasing stories….tell me, were they correct…Nope. Still they have to be right one day but they have been wrong for the past 5 years.

[Tinnat]

Time will tell Katy, time will tell. Meanwhile I will not be engaging in any more discussions with you.

[logan]

Intelligent investors are selective in their return to markets that show signs of revival. I don’t include in that description the Spanish property market. In this new market there are too many pitfalls for the long-term to make a winning strategy out of simply buying cheap. Institutional investors need to spread a portfolio in many sectors across the world. Reports that some notable names have invested recently in Spain should not be taken as any sign of a revival of fortune. It’s merely asset risk spread.

I describe the property market now in Spain as ‘new’ because everything changed after the crash. If an investor ignores that they do so at their peril. The market is new because firstly it’s now more regulated. The banks are now heavily restricted in how they can provide finance particularly to developers and private buyers. The current Spanish government has a policy of discouragement of holiday home ownership and has decided to impose a greater tax burden on the sector. The country is awash with second homes and untaxed income it produces for foreign owners.

These attempts to claw back revenue will only increase. The personal tax burden for foreign residents is also increasing in tandem with other cash strapped EU states.

Once it was possible to enter this market with a degree of certainty you could exit it at a time of your own choosing. Now long-term investors brave enough to take this market on need a new strategy. One that both exploits a likely short-term rebound in about 5 year’s time and a method to minimise losses from the long-term structural economic difficulties and barriers now in place in Spain and other EU nations. The risks for any rapid exit however will always remain because of over supply problems.

The arguments on here that the market is reviving are far too premature. Markets revive when the economic circumstances of the country improve. The property market is usually the last market to show any up-tick. Spain is only just emerging from recession and has a long way to go before it returns to substantial growth and stronger employment data.

Also for a market to revive in any meaningful way demand has to travel in tandem with widely available consumer finance and confidence. That is nowhere near happening in Spain. Banks are cash strapped, burdened by their massive property portfolios they are struggling to dispose of, even at rock bottom prices. Consumers live in deep uncertainty for their future.

My personal view is a modest revival will come eventually. The climate in Spain is always going to attract consumers from colder regions. However the days of capital gain and high net rental returns have gone and are unlikely to return. There are far too many barriers now in place. Any half way savvy property investor can see those barriers clearly if they do enough research.

Once a lack of demand for second homes was supported by residential tourists buying to retire to Spain. That market has all but dried up because of the difficulties retirees now face in Spain. Declaration of overseas assets, inheritance tax and living costs the same as their own country has seen to that. The climate attraction extends only so far.

[Chopera]

Sales up by 40% in February and transaction prices by 0.6%:

http://www.20minutos.es/noticia/2114496/0/venta-viviendas/notarios-aumento/febrero-2014/

http://www.abc.es/economia/20140414/abci-viviendas-compraventa-notarios-201404141312.html

(that’s according to the Consejo General del Notariado)

As I mentioned previously, I expect INE stats (which are a few months behind) to start reflecting what the notarios are seeing next month (but you never know)

[Chopera]

As I predicted the INE sales figures for March showed an increase (of 22%):

Los datos del INE ya reflejan la subida de la venta de casas

As discussed earlier – this figure is relative to a year ago, which distorts it, and the INE figures lag by a few months as well.

[Chopera]

I should add that the INE stats for February 2014 were down on January 2014:

El Pais also had this graph, showing longer term trends since the bubble burst:

(quite interesting to see the Jan/Feb spike seems to happen each year – preceded by a dip which probably corresponds to the summer holidays)

[DBMarcos99]

An article here seems to back up Chopera’s report of sales actually rising in February (and by a large percentage too)

http://www.onthepulse.es/property/sales-house-prices-and-credit-all-property-sector

Property purchases rose by a massive 39.8% in February from last year, reaching a total of 26,602 transactions, and house prices increased by 0.6%.
These figures contradict those of the INE (National Statistics Institute) who publish their data with a 3-month delay. Figures from the CGN are more in line with figures in real time.

Of course we will have to examine the INE figures three months hence to verify this.

[Anonymous]

We can ignore the figures from the Notaries and INE from the last few months. They just reflect the end of tax breaks a year ago, artificially pushing up sales at the end of the year, and driving them down at the start of the next. But, because the notaries and INE use figures with different time delays, you get a total mess of confusing figures. The underlying trend in most areas I guess is steady or slightly down. Foreign buyers are helping to push up sales in some areas, but in most parts of Spain there won’t be a recovery until the banks start to lend again.

I haven’t been able to publish anything on this question for the last 10 days or so due to constant attacks by hackers meaning I had to change servers and couldn’t post any new articles in the blog. Everything is now back to normal, though now taking a few days off….

[angie]

Which property sales figures are to be trusted as being correct, where is there an indisputable table of figures for Spain? For every post/lead saying sales or prices are rising there are as many that dispute them 🙄

How long does it take for property sales to show up on Spain’s Land Registry, in the UK property sales are on the register in 3 months with sold price?

[Anonymous]

In England only lesmons – ie less sweet than Spanish lemons ! But who wants a revival when they will all get much cheaper maybe in pesetas -then we can buy another wait for the rebound and clear off less 3% ! The Bundesbank likes deflation it makes German exports cheaper and it makes the Euro strong. In UK we have a population drugged on crazy house price inflation that is fed by importing Africans and Asians into buy to let rentals -all ok but we are losing our grip on our country and when things go pop the state will go bust as the £ plummets food prices rocket -benefits are slashed and all the pension savings are spent and the pensioiners are all in the soup kitchens. Well in Spain or Canaries you don’t need the gas fire on -maybe time to look for a little place with space for a few chickens -not in the loft as I have seen in Spain and a growing patch and a solid box to keep your gold. Gold ! well what if it halves in value ? At least would Hacienda know you had any to charge tax. In UK Gold Sovereigns a bit over £200. In Spain what is the comparable gold coin to buy to keep in the cellar that is easily changed for cash ? Maybe they want us to take ours -we used to fight them on the high seas for it and in 1588 they tried to raid us for it big time !

[angie]

Green Canary bananas Enough booty chatter, flapdoodle, hooey, pish posh 😆 Do you know? 🙄

[Anonymous]

Chilly and grey in Kent Angie -have you got the heating on -winter comes strange times now when the leaves on the trees are nice and green. But have a lovely today radio music channel on Hotbird its SSR-CH-Classique. Hope you are well tucked up .today !

[katy]

Yes, weather bad here this morning, cool and rainy. Sun out now.

Did you know it has been raining in Spain today, a bit warmer but not much according to a friend.

[angie]

Don’t need the heating on Ptr in our house this time of the year in the South East, eco features doing their work, no need to be tucked up here, isn’t that what happens in Spain if you get me drift? 😛 After a grey rainy day yesterday it turned out sunny and warm by mid afternoon, and just played a round of golf this morning in warm sunshine and a couple of drinks on the club-house terrace, in Blighty of all places 😛

Off to Malaga mid May too to friends, best of both worlds really, fortunately not subject to property stats in Spain anymore 😉

[Anonymous]

Yes Angie that word was actually what I meant to write -did spot it was like another word afterwards but was not the intention !.Yes its been better today but chilly wind on the coast.. We are in challenging times -the stronger £ better for travellers -good you are making the most of it – in these uncertain times no guarantee it will last. Very few on this site.-Mark did ask we stopped posting- we did– and then it restarted -not sure we were supposed to ?

[Anonymous]

Spanish property still has a way to go before it attracts investors but it will once again provide a fantastic opportunity,. With in excess of 3 million empty villas and apartments unsold the prices will tumble for these modern abodes which will reduce the Spanish finca to very affordable sub £10,000 prices with restoration projects in remote areas under £5K, as always do your homework. I can remember seeing inland restoration projects for £4,000 (2000) that were nothing more than potential plots and when I lived in Spain (2007) similar plots were selling for £125,000…madness?

[Anonymous]

I don’t think it is price that is the issue in Spain. It will not be a good thing if prices you suggest were to materialise because it would result in a bigger mountain of debt. There is no need for Spain to go back that much – what is required is confidence that it a safe place to invest your money.

[Anonymous]

Please accept this comment as an observation.

In the Costa Calida and Costa Blanca there are cranes going up everywhere again and development of new apartments and houses are all over the area. The market seems to be in a better place and prices appear to be more realistic.

Unfortunately there is a major fall out from expats that purchased at the boom and have seen their properties plummet in value. Very sad, but the financial climate was as bad in the UK not that long ago – remember?

The banks are far more careful with their lending to the developers and also potential morgagees ensuring realistic prices are being offered.

It is a slow economic process and it is clear certain areas maintain good figures, but the majority of areas are not experiencing any growth.

Number of cranes in an area is a good barometer of economic growth – At the height of the mad boom Spain had 25% of all cranes in the world based along the tourist coastline!

Just an observation………..

[Chopera]

I have a Spanish friend in Alicante who was depressed at the sight of cranes appearing near his flat. He tells me there are still thousands of properties on the market and most still aren’t selling. He can only see it as a sign of desperation from councils, banks and developers whose only solution to anything is to build stuff, regardless of whether anyone wants to buy it.

[Chopera]

@Lochers wrote:

…
Number of cranes in an area is a good barometer of economic growth – At the height of the mad boom Spain had 25% of all cranes in the world based along the tourist coastline!

Just an observation………..

So does tractor production apparently

[katy]

I heard some fish n’ chip shops are opening in Benidorm. A friend said there is a strong smell of vinegar everywhere

[Anonymous]

Are they run by Chinkies ? They’ve taken over the clothes shops .Why are the Chinese getting such a foothold everywhere. Are they bringing in black money that Spanish vendors want to hide to survive in retirement in their desperation. Selling the country out to Asian predators will only bring on their enslavement when they had good Brits who pulled them out of poverty that Rahoy now persecutes. Maybe Rahoy should pay a visit to a Chinese Labour camp! They will soon value the Brits in Gibraltar when in 15 years the Chinese frigates patrol the Spanish eastern Med coast to enforce their basic law and hours of work on their Spanish slave.workers.

[GarySFBCN]

@Ptr wrote:

Are they run by Chinkies ? They’ve taken over the clothes shops .Why are the Chinese getting such a foothold everywhere. Are they bringing in black money that Spanish vendors want to hide to survive in retirement in their desperation. Selling the country out to Asian predators will only bring on their enslavement when they had good Brits who pulled them out of poverty that Rahoy now persecutes. Maybe Rahoy should pay a visit to a Chinese Labour camp! They will soon value the Brits in Gibraltar when in 15 years the Chinese frigates patrol the Spanish eastern Med coast to enforce their basic law and hours of work on their Spanish slave.workers.

Recently, I have been enjoying many of your posts. But the post above is racist and, at best, makes you appear to be ignorant.

[Chopera]

@Ptr wrote:

Are they run by Chinkies ? They’ve taken over the clothes shops .Why are the Chinese getting such a foothold everywhere. Are they bringing in black money that Spanish vendors want to hide to survive in retirement in their desperation. Selling the country out to Asian predators will only bring on their enslavement when they had good Brits who pulled them out of poverty that Rahoy now persecutes. Maybe Rahoy should pay a visit to a Chinese Labour camp! They will soon value the Brits in Gibraltar when in 15 years the Chinese frigates patrol the Spanish eastern Med coast to enforce their basic law and hours of work on their Spanish slave.workers.

Maybe the Chinese just work harder, are better at running their businesses, lend to each other at 0% interest because they know they’ll get paid, are prepared to put up with harsher conditions and lower margins, and aren’t able to run home to mummy England crying because they’re used to a higher standard of living. And yes they do pay tax – being Chinese makes you an obvious target for an investigation since “everybody” suspects them of tax avoidance – which in turn makes it incredibly hard for them to avoid paying tax.

[GarySFBCN]

I’d like to add that with more than 1.2 billion English speakers in China, there are most likely readers of this forum who are Chinese, living in or outside of China.

I would hate to see what could be (in the future) the majority property purchasers in Spain turned away from Mark’s site because of the ignorant racism of a few.

[Anonymous]

What is racist about that ? I am not prejudiced against any race. I have friends of many races. However China where the majority of Chinese live is the Chinese homeland . Spain is where most Spanish live and it is their homeland. However Gary it is another thing when too many people emigrate from a country and effectively repopulate towns so that it substantially no longer resembles that homeland. It would be an exaggeration to suggest that this point has been reached in Spain.t It does not matter if they all happened to be Brits its just the same. Multiculturalism is ok up to a point.. If I used the word Black it was not about skin colour -it is about the practice that used to be rife in Spain and it is now discouraged .You seem to have an obsession about racism.Reading the papers and following world news I frequently read about corruption in China and the problems that its causing and I often read that it may be similar in Russia .At the moment Spain is in the European Union . I have no personal knowledge of Chinese businesses other than the large increase in the number all importing Chinese goods and seemingly financed in a way that enables large amounts of stock to be kept and being sold at prices the Spanish would not be able to compete with .I question how this is able to flourish on the scale that I see as a shopper.I think its not very polite to your host country to call the Spanish lazy. Another point – there are different races in this world -. they have different cultures histories and economic development. We do not know yet whether multiculturalism is globally sustainable ie where we all become mixed up in most countries to a global uniformity ultimately, It is not racist to suggest cultural differences should not be over diluted. You will note Gary my post is in the question form -it does not allege. And in deed it is more questioning of the Spanish in that with people in negative equity a white knight is a saviour ! And as you know I think the Spanish will do themselves no favours by that persuing policilies that depress prices that are low enough instead of doing reforms that encourage investor confidence.

[katy]

@GarySFBCN wrote:

I’d like to add that with more than 1.2 billion English speakers in China, there are most likely readers of this forum who are Chinese, living in or outside of China.

I would hate to see what could be (in the future) the majority property purchasers in Spain turned away from Mark’s site because of the ignorant racism of a few.

Have you seen the traffic this site gets 😆

[katy]

@Chopera wrote:

@Ptr wrote:

Maybe the Chinese just work harder, are better at running their businesses, lend to each other at 0% interest because they know they’ll get paid, are prepared to put up with harsher conditions and lower margins, and aren’t able to run home to mummy England crying because they’re used to a higher standard of living. And yes they do pay tax – being Chinese makes you an obvious target for an investigation since “everybody” suspects them of tax avoidance – which in turn makes it incredibly hard for them to avoid paying tax.

That’s rich…harping on about racism and then bringing England into it 🙄

Remember a few weeks ago the numerous arrests of Chinese in Spain…or do you have a short memory span!

[GarySFBCN]

@Ptr wrote:

What is racist about that ? . . .

I’m not going to debate this with you. However the word “Chinkies” is racist, as is the implication that the Chinese are “Asian predators will only bring on their enslavement. . .”

[Chopera]

@katy wrote:

@Chopera wrote:

@Ptr wrote:

Maybe the Chinese just work harder, are better at running their businesses, lend to each other at 0% interest because they know they’ll get paid, are prepared to put up with harsher conditions and lower margins, and aren’t able to run home to mummy England crying because they’re used to a higher standard of living. And yes they do pay tax – being Chinese makes you an obvious target for an investigation since “everybody” suspects them of tax avoidance – which in turn makes it incredibly hard for them to avoid paying tax.

That’s rich…harping on about racism and then bringing England into it 🙄

Remember a few weeks ago the numerous arrests of Chinese in Spain…or do you have a short memory span!

I haven’t mentioned racism let alone harp on about it – maybe you are you unable to read?

I simply suggested that there might be reasons for Chinese success in Spain other than dirty money, or some grand plot to take over Spain.

[Anonymous]

I live in the real world Gary . Chinkie – we all say in England I’m going down to the Chinky for a takeaway -nothing racist at all – its just common normal chat you are plainobsessed about racism.’Chopera /Katywrote ‘you quoted from Gary not from me -I did not write that ! We should not be naïve -in this world we are predominately Nation States . We have a patriotism or we should defend our own heritages and we should have also have a loyalty to countries where we buy second homes. Sometimes Governments like that of Rahoy -and its nothing personal -no doubt a hard working patriot with some good intentions to get his country back on its feet does stupid things that do no good like introducing new taxes on foreign owners who love to come to his country have always paid their tax have often been cheated by bad practices in the past who would like to stay. This Government needs to wake up. We are in the European Union -lets make it better not go sour. Lets welcome others but let us all keep our own identities -that is mutual respect.

[GarySFBCN]

Chinkie to describe a restaurant or meal is acceptable. But you used the word to describe a group of people, and then you projected something about Asians being predators, etc. I just did some reading about ‘chinky’ and, according to OFCOM, there is a generational divide: “. . .Older and mainly white groups tend to think this is not usually used in an abusive way – e.g. let’s go to the Chinky – which is not seen as offensive; younger groups and those from ethnic minorities feel this could be as insulting as ‘paki’. . .” http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chinky

So while your intent was not racist, to young people or non-whites, it is an offensive term. I never heard anyone defend it and thankfully, I didn’t call you a racist – I just said the post was racist.

While I disagree with your idea that we need to defend “our own heritages”, it doesn’t concern me in the least. Those who feel the need to do this should. But I have to ask, defend our own heritages against what?

[Anonymous]

Personally Gary I do not find Paki racist either. Prince Harry used the word and was called to account ! But its in common useage and not in unfriendly way . It is in any case an abbreviation. Now if you were to say Paki bastard well that is something different !! But even estateagent will casually say -the neighbours are Pakis but they are Ok ie they don’t throw their ruibbish out of the window any more than the English !. But as far as ‘predators’ are concerned : you must be truthful about the human condition. We do not know the ultimate truths. -not for certain because much belief is a reserve of the faiths and more than one claim the ultimate Deity. We cannot exclude that racial struggle is of the essence of the human condition and its part of a struggle for supremacy in our species. That is why we have to be careful to be always open minded to new thinking and evidence just as we discovered in recent yearsthat the evolution of ourselves since the extinction of dinosaurs that there maybe a perfectly natural evolution in which race might be part of this evolution and must not be loosely spoken about. We must always have respect for individuals whatever their race who are worthy ie we should not discriminate because we are part of common humanity. But we get sharp warnings . Russians think they have a riight to cross borders and frontiers to defend Russian speakers ascwell as ethnic Russians. No this is not just Putin -there is a logic in the argument that you accept or you don’t. Is there no possibility that other strong cultures might in the future seek to exercise this protection to their racial affinities in other countries that ask for it. So might a country be right and far -seeing and doing its duty to not over dilute its heritage and to limit numbers of other cultures in its domain ? Again in the question form as I am academic by nature. and of course national governments should be clean and fair so that visitiors to Spain who come to live there Residente or No Residente know what to expect and are not given sharp surprises . In fact all that a No Residente owner should ever have to pay is CGT on a capital gain in addition to their annual small tax IBI and basura .IHT should be paid only in the country they are tax resident if they are above the threshold and we should fight for this.. It would be good for Spain.. .

[katy]

Isn’t this forum dead enough without having the PC warriors in with accusations about racism just because of one word….he is the only guy posting right now and it is clear he didn’t mean it in a racist manner 🙄

[DBMarcos99]

Could be dangerous if this gets out of hand?

Purchase of properties by foreigners in Spain rose 36% in 2013 (still quite a bit below the 2006 boom peak though)

http://www.lavanguardia.com/economia/20140429/54406438335/adquisicion-viviendas-extranjeros-crecio-2013.html

[angie]

One can read you like one of your books Marcos (excuse the pun), however your 1st line is just contentious to stoke a fire when not called for. I’m sure there will be contradictory evidence as usual to the article, and no doubt will be posted in due course. Why not post without the jibes in future and have a meaningful conversation 🙄

[DBMarcos99]

@angie wrote:

One can read you like one of your books Marcos (excuse the pun), however your 1st line is just contentious to stoke a fire when not called for. I’m sure there will be contradictory evidence as usual to the article, and no doubt will be posted in due course. Why not post without the jibes in future and have a meaningful conversation 🙄

Why do you always revert to personal attacks?

Upset by the fact that purchases by foreign buyers rose 36%? Or do you deny that fact?

[angie]

Why did you post ‘Could be dangerous if this gets out of hand’ if that wasn’t trying to be contentious? 😯 😕 Duh!!! 😕

Me, upset by your posts you, not at all, you try your best here there and everywhere including British Expats where you post regularly, and see what others think of you

As for ‘denying the fact’ as you put it, I’m sure there will be plenty of counter view from other sources 🙄 Will post it later for you

[DBMarcos99]

@angie wrote:

Why did you post ‘Could be dangerous if this gets out of hand’ if that wasn’t trying to be contentious? 😯 😕 Duh!!! 😕

Me, upset by your posts you, not at all, you try your best here there and everywhere including British Expats where you post regularly, and see what others think of you

As for ‘denying the fact’ as you put it, I’m sure there will be plenty of counter view from other sources 🙄 Will post it later for you

Are you drunk? Of course I commented – that’s the point of a talkboard!
It was not aimed personally at anyone here – so why did you jump in with personal comments? “If it gets out of hand” is a reference to the boom-bust scenario. Steady growth on the other hand probably isn’t so bad, although it may not be good news for local first time buyers.

[angie]

You are silly Marcos, and the one being personal here, what has alcohol got to do with my post? You know what you intended with your opening line 😆

http://www.auraree.com/real-estate-news/new-ho … ed-houses/

Fitch and Standard and Poors say Spanish house prices will fall into 2015 although you think you know more than ratings agencies! 🙄

[DBMarcos99]

@angie wrote:

You are silly Marcos, and the one being personal here, what has alcohol got to do with my post? You know what you intended with your opening line 😆

http://www.auraree.com/real-estate-news/new-housing-sales-fall-twice-fast-pre-owned-houses/

Fitch and Standard and Poors say Spanish house prices will fall into 2015 although you think you know more than ratings agencies! 🙄

Wrong again – please stop assuming you know what I think – you don’t. I’ve never given a prediction for house prices in 2015 (or any other year). In my opinion it’s a crazy thing to do.
I repeat though, the evidence is that the quantity of foreign purchases of homes in Spain is rising fast – at least at the moment.
Here’s a similar article, but in English. Incidentally even that article states there’s probably a fall of 4% in prices this year. Don’t confuse quantity with price. It’s precisely the lower prices that encourages greater interest.

Foreign purchases of Spanish properties highest in nine years
http://www.globalpropertyguide.com/news-Foreign_purchases_of_Spanish_properties_highest_in_nine_years-1874

[angie]

I don’t disagree that foreign property buyers have bought more, Brits are also foreign buyers but their numbers have dropped, what I was saying basically is that for every story that comes out of Spain there’s always contradictory stories 😕

I know market forces in any market, happens in stock markets, when prices fall buyers will move in generally, but whether that makes it the right time to buy when ratings agencies see further falls is debatable. Had people been buying over the last 5 years when prices were still being talked up, they would be losing money in the main unless they purchased in the right locations. 🙄

[Mark Stücklin]

At least the market isn’t declining by volume any more, at least not for the time being.

[katy]

What’s a key master?

[angie]

Boss man perhaps?

[Fuengi (Andrew)]

I have no idea if in general the market in improving or not. If it is, we’ll be able to tell in a years time or so.

What I will give is my personal view (for what its worth). Shops, bars, restaurants are still closing, but I am seeing a lot more new businesses opening as well. In general i am seeing fewer empty ‘locals’.
In my area loads of new agencies have opened up, but they seem to be flybynight operations. 2 desks in a rented office and a membership of a MLS database.
I personally have been very busy this year (shant complain!!) but that could be for a variety of reasons, not that there are automatically more clients. We may have just ‘captured’ a larger share of the market than in previous years.
We have definitely noted a shift in buyers, with far fewer spanish buying. Whereas previously they were 60/70% of ours buyers (average 2011 to 2013), I would say 20/30% this year.

Hi everybody!

[Mark Stücklin]

Well, I was down in Marbella today looking at assets for a fund, and I left with a positive impression. I see clear signs of a revival in Marbella, and my bet is the market there will stage a feisty recovery in the next 12 months. I do realise my optimism might have been influenced by the lunch I had in El Ancla, where I was served the best fish (Besugo – Bream) I’ve ever had in my life. See how I feel about the market tomorrow 😉

[katy]

El Ancla, do you mean the one in San Pedro? Actually about 20 miles from central Marbella. Hope you didn’t bump into any taylor Wimpy sales people like Ubeda. Expect he will be along soon to back you up Ha Ha.(Please note tongue in cheek there are no emoticons here!

We were there last week for a golf tournament. Not sure what are “Signs of economic revival” The main area always has new start ups every summer season. I do agree that Marbella will be the first to see a full recovery but market revival right now! Many have taken their villas off the market as they have been on sale for years. My ex-hairdresser has had their property on sale since 2007 and have reduced the price several times. I have a friend who is an agent in marbella, she is Spanish and has been in the business over 25 years. last week she told me they are existing by rentals and property. management.

[angie]

I think Fuengi knows his stuff locally, and having come back from the CDS recently this is my view.

Marbella and environs is a different case to inland CDS, there is more life in the market by what we saw, not from Brits which makes sense to me because of the exchange rate still. Marbella has always had it’s glitzy image where people want to be seen. It’s not for us though! We do know properties there that have still been on the market for years, now looking a bit tired.

Completely different though in inland towns such as Coin, Alhaurin el Grande, and those further inland. The market is pretty dire still and Brits we know and met are trying to sell rather than trying to buy. In these towns the bars and cafes are pretty empty of Brits, but locals are there, and, small businesses ran by Brits have generally disappeared. The inland towns are more scruffy now, very dirty pavements, dog mess, more graffiti etc

So, the property market seems split between hot spots and well cared for areas, to a lot of unfinished developments and scruffy areas inland!

[Fuengi (Andrew)]

Your right Angie.

People have been going back to the basics in regards to what they are looking for on the Coast. Sun, Sea, Sand, Services.

[zenkarma]

Interesting article in the Costa Almería News:

Foreign buyers lead the way as home sales continue to grow. Málaga was second in all of Spain for sales to foreign buyers in the first quarter of this year, behind only Alicante.

According to the government and national statistics institute (INE) figures in the first four months of this year a total of 7,177 homes were sold in the province, including new and used properties, up 5.3% from the same period last year and 30% from two years ago. In April, one in three properties sold in Andalucia were sold in Málaga.

Málaga was second in all of Spain for sales to foreign buyers, behind only Alicante and represented 61% of all sales to foreign buyers in Andalucia and 12% nationwide. For overall sales to foreign and domestic buyers it had the fourth highest figure in the country behind Madrid (11,784), Barcelona (8,183) and Alicante (6,605).

Despite the growth in sales it is still estimated that Málaga has an unsold stock of between 15-40,000 homes depending on who is counting.

Make of that what you will!

 

[Mark Stücklin]

This is a thoughtful take on the Spanish market situation by Kevin Brass:

Forget the Bottom, When Will Property Market Hit Normal?

[kgpoc]

(Mark, your June 13 Spreadsheet YTD numbers are not correct! The 2013 number is not calculating through April, the YTD was infact negative..)

As far as adding anything of value on the current sales/prices trajectory, I think the article from Kevin Brass about sums it up. Until there are jobs nothing is going to become normal!

[Mark Stücklin]

Thanks kgpoc. Table now corrected.

[Mark Stücklin]

Spanish property prices rise for first time in six years reports SPI. Must be all hype, of course 😉
Also:
The Guardian
The Wall Street Journal
Bloomberg

To be honest, I find it difficult to believe that average Spanish house prices are rising either monthly, quarterly, or annually, unless the market is so thin that it’s a volatility story. Or maybe there is something else going on that isn’t yet clear.

On the other hand, I expect that prices are starting to rise in Prime Madrid, Barcelona, Marbella, Ibiza, etc.

[Author]

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