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For the bored 😆 Interesting what we were saying almost 2 years ago.
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Goes to show that even the experts can fail to read the market. This quote was from Mark on 17/03/2011:
Definite signs of improvement
I am doing in-depth research into the Spanish holiday-home market the likes of which does not exist today in Spain.
Thanks to work-load of said research I’m too busy to go into it in depth right now, but I can tell you that I am seeing lots of signs of improvement.
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@brianc_li wrote:
Goes to show that even the experts can fail to read the market. This quote was from Mark on 17/03/2011:
Definite signs of improvement
I am doing in-depth research into the Spanish holiday-home market the likes of which does not exist today in Spain.
Thanks to work-load of said research I’m too busy to go into it in depth right now, but I can tell you that I am seeing lots of signs of improvement.
Fail to read the market ❓ ❓ ❓ I would argue I was spot on. There has been a substantial improvement in the holiday-home market since March of 2011. If you head over to the blog you will find transaction figures showing a double-digit increase in sales to foreigners in 2011, and I think we will see the same in 2012. Of course the market is nothing like what it was in the boom (a period that wasn’t normal or sustainable), but it has improved considerably since the lows of 2010, and I can think of quite a number of agents, and some developers, that have had an excellent year. Which is not to say that everything is hunky-dory, far from it, but I wasn’t lying when I said I could see lots of signs of improvement……
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Katy you are right that agents usually want to profess to be doing better than they actually are but for holiday homes on the costa blanca it’s considerable better then a few years back. It’s far from great though and looking at the big picture of real estate in Spain it’s still just doom and gloom.
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@mark wrote:
@brianc_li wrote:
Goes to show that even the experts can fail to read the market. This quote was from Mark on 17/03/2011:
Definite signs of improvement
I am doing in-depth research into the Spanish holiday-home market the likes of which does not exist today in Spain.
Thanks to work-load of said research I’m too busy to go into it in depth right now, but I can tell you that I am seeing lots of signs of improvement.
Fail to read the market ❓ ❓ ❓ I would argue I was spot on. There has been a substantial improvement in the holiday-home market since March of 2011. If you head over to the blog you will find transaction figures showing a double-digit increase in sales to foreigners in 2011, and I think we will see the same in 2012. Of course the market is nothing like what it was in the boom (a period that wasn’t normal or sustainable), but it has improved considerably since the lows of 2010, and I can think of quite a number of agents, and some developers, that have had an excellent year. Which is not to say that everything is hunky-dory, far from it, but I wasn’t lying when I said I could see lots of signs of improvement……
All the buyers must be paying cash. INE stats show that in the first 10 months of the year there were 33% less mortgages taken out than in 2011!
http://www.diariosur.es/rc/20121227/economia/hipotecas-sobre-viviendas-minimos-201212270923.html
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I don’t think brown envelopes have ever gone out of fashion in Spain, not for hundreds of years. The Spanish news today is full of reports were the various police bodies are seizing mountains of cash all over the place, along with the usual drugs and luxury items, and cars and the inevitable guns. I don’t know if they can seize houses as well, but I don’t suppose they can line them up at police headquarters for the press.
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I take most of the Telegraph comments seriously, they’re on a par with the Guardian for telling the truth as they see it, but not anything from Ambrose Pritchard Evans who has been consistently and drastically wrong for the past 20 years.
For a long 20 years he has studiously copied and pasted articles critisizing the EMU, yes, the EMU and later the Euro, and has predicted its demise hundreds of times over the years. In the economists world, he is the joker in the pack, he gets it more wrong than the rest of them put together.
The Telegraph took him on in their eurosceptic euphoria of the early nineties, but have since softened their stance in the face of overwhelming evidence to the contrary, but still wheel out Ambrose to satisfy the ownership and he invariably attracts great numbers of comments from the toxic part of the Tories.
He’s actually quite a funny man.
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Rocker you can try to dismiss the writer just because the article isn’t coming out with the hype you want but he has named quotes in there…they said it not him. I am sure most people would find that more reliable than a couple of ex-pats selling property saying the Russians are coming…or was that the Chinese 😆 😆
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@katy wrote:
Rocker you can try to dismiss the writer just because the article isn’t coming out with the hype you want but he has named quotes in there…they said it not him. I am sure most people would find that more reliable than a couple of ex-pats selling property saying the Russians are coming…or was that the Chinese 😆 😆
If you’re looking for balanced views about the EU, then you’re looking in the wrong place and I must respectfully say that balanced views are not what you’re looking for judging from your posts.
But I have no complaints and enjoy a lively discussion.
I only wish I had bet against everything recommended by Ambrose over the years, I would be very rich now.
If you analyse his quotes in any of his articles you will find them blatantly out of context and only meaningful to Eurosceptics and he is employed by the Telegraph to write what they want to hear.
I once watched an interview with Ambrose when he let his hair down and laughed about the rubbish he had written over the years. He said something like, ‘I’m paid £100,000 a year to write for the Eurosceptics and I’m not going to stop.’ He was laughing all over his face.
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DT bio quote:
Ambrose Evans-Pritchard is International Business Editor of The Daily Telegraph. He has covered world politics and economics for 30 years, based in Europe, the US, and Latin America. He joined the Telegraph in 1991, serving as Washington correspondent and later Europe correspondent in Brussels.His journalism, experience and subject knowledge versus Rockers particular ex-pat opinions. You choose. 🙂
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@logan wrote:
DT bio quote:
Ambrose Evans-Pritchard is International Business Editor of The Daily Telegraph. He has covered world politics and economics for 30 years, based in Europe, the US, and Latin America. He joined the Telegraph in 1991, serving as Washington correspondent and later Europe correspondent in Brussels.His journalism, experience and subject knowledge versus Rockers particular ex-pat opinions. You choose. 🙂
We always have a choice over which opinions to believe, and since you’ve chosen to compare Ambrose’s to mine, I need to perhaps compare his to yours’?
It’s a dangerous route to travel down, Logan.
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I thought the Ambrose piece had validity. From everything I read even the Spanish government may well also agree with his views judging from Rajoys gloomy new year message. A further 30% decline in Spanish property values is easily a possibility given the extent of the crisis which is increasingly worsening.
‘Don’t shoot the messenger’ comes to mind.
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I suppose if there is more than one messenger then you indeed have to be careful which one you shoot, if you want to shoot anyone, of course. I don’t.
A 30% fall in Spanish property prices next year is unrealistic, although I wouldn’t invest in the opposite happening. The UK Conservatives, as well as the Spanish and German ones have nearly taken sufficient austerity steps to avert the next crisis, and it will come, probably from across the Atlantic. It could come as early as next week.
But, with the exception of France, most of the Eurozone and the UK have rebalanced their banks to withstand another whirlwind arriving on our shores from the US. They’ve largely sacked their investments bankers, tens of thousands of them across Europe, something that should have happened in December, 2008.
I’m wondering how to place a bet on Spanish property prices not falling by 30% next year? Anyone?
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@Rocker wrote:
I take most of the Telegraph comments seriously, they’re on a par with the Guardian for telling the truth as they see it, but not anything from Ambrose Pritchard Evans who has been consistently and drastically wrong for the past 20 years.
For a long 20 years he has studiously copied and pasted articles critisizing the EMU, yes, the EMU and later the Euro, and has predicted its demise hundreds of times over the years. In the economists world, he is the joker in the pack, he gets it more wrong than the rest of them put together.
The Telegraph took him on in their eurosceptic euphoria of the early nineties, but have since softened their stance in the face of overwhelming evidence to the contrary, but still wheel out Ambrose to satisfy the ownership and he invariably attracts great numbers of comments from the toxic part of the Tories.
He’s actually quite a funny man.
Yes AEP has been made to look a fool by pointing out that one-size-fits all interest rates would cause booms and busts in economies not in cycle with Germany. And he’s been shown to be a complete idiot by continually pointing out that not having a lender of last resort will cause runs on the bond markets. How stupid he looks now we sit here in our economic paradise, with all the euro economies nicely converged and chugging along with no hint of recession. 😆 😆 😆
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@logan wrote:
The article actually said this:
RR de Acuña & Asociados expects home prices in Madrid, Barcelona and other major cities to fall a further 30pc in a relentless slide until 2018, but it may be even worse in sunbelt regions where 400,000 Britons either live or own homes.Not 30% decline next year.
I happily stand corrected, thanks.
It’s difficult to relate to a 30% fall over five years, it can’t mean 6% a year, surely, nobody could predict that far ahead.
How can anyone predict five years ahead anyway? If you turn the clock back five years, to 2007, every single prediction was wrong by a mile, mine included. Our world banks were parcelling up US mortgage parcels and selling them to each other at a pace. Few people understood them, but it didn’t matter, they were going up relentlessly and the bankers were getting bonuses to make your head spin.
What people seem to forget is that the Spanish construction sector was overheated, along with ridiculous bank lending, but had things continued as they were – with people flooding into Spain to snap up homes in the sun – the country’s prosperity would have gone on at a pace.
It didn’t for one simple reason, the cock-up in the US with Fanny Mae and Fanny Mac, I’ve probably misspelt the names, but the word in front surely explains it all.
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@mgspain wrote:
Rocker, with all due respect, I think your a bit out of your depth when it comes to discussions about economics.
For a good history of boom and busts I recommend you buy the book, ” This time is different, Eight Centuries of Financial Folly” by Reinhart and Rogoff.Thanks for that, you may well be right. I’m an ordinary guy who has lived in Spain, and has run a business here for many, many years. I love the place to bits and my opinions are unashamedly prejudiced.
When I walk into my local Spanish bar, the ambience overwhelms me. I could go on and on, and may upset some of the PC brigade, but the waitresses bum and friendly smile makes me happy.
And the tostado with garlic and rubbed tomato will hopefully make me live long enough for the telegram.
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Since the title of this thread is ‘looking back’ you can obtain a useful independent explanation of the Spanish financial crisis here. Freddie and Fanny had nothing to do with it. 🙂
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2008%E2%80%932012_Spanish_financial_crisis
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An informative resume of what happened, and one any expat living in Spain for that time could have written. I witnessed it at close hand.
But I disagree that the US sub-prime mortgage crisis somehow affected the rest of the world but not Spain. It’s true that Spanish banks were less affected by Lehman’s fall because the Bank of Spain had discouraged buying the toxic parcels from the US, but we live in a global village and many foreign banks had invested heavily in Spain, especially the Germans and British, and when the banking crisis hit, it hit Spain too.
But there’s no denying that overbuilding and ridiculous lending caused the Spanish housing crash.
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There were two leading factors which began the process of subprime and the European property bubble. The first was deregulation of financial markets by government, light touch monitoring of institutions by central banks and the sheer incompetence and corruption of senior management within financial institutions.
The second factor followed on from the first. This factor is not widely publicised for obvious reasons. It was the pressure brought to bear on financial institutions by institutional share holders after deregulation for greater bank profits and consequent dividends. This pressure was enormous and led to banks taking massive financial risks in pursuit of those profits.
High street banks became casinos, people with no experience or knowledge thought property was a one way bet to riches.Any chief executive who did not comply to the new order was soon out of a job. It worked for a while as economic booms and bubbles do. Yet nobody saw the crash coming because they were all blinded by greed and the phony success it created.
Everyone lost a packet. The legacy of that will be with us all for years. Any talk of markets bottoming or recovering is just wishful thinking. The massive damage has to be repaired first. Governments and banks are up to their eyes in debt which will take a generation to repay.
In my view the one positive thing governments can to do is allow inflation to rip and devalue that debt. They have the tools to do it. Austerity and tax rises just doesn’t cut it. It’s inflicting misery on populations and sapping the energy and optimism from the young.
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Logan you are right by most standars but missing some very important fact.
1. It was actually not deregulation but regulation from the governments “Freddy Mac and Fanny Ass” that basicly totally destroyed all sense of rating risk that brought on the sub-prime crisis. The government basicly said to all other banks and lenders that lending to people that couldn’t pay was a good thing. Not sure how you can see this a deregulation since it’s the opposite of letting the market forces do what they think is right without interference. That the supervision was bad was just a minor problem. Without the government backed institutions this would never have happened.
2. Central banks with FIAT-currency is in it’s essence absolute regulation. Something forced upon it’s people trying to twart the market forces.
If most economists and people would understand such simple things we would be a lot better off.
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1. It was actually not deregulation but regulation from the governments “Freddy Mac and Fanny Ass” that basicly totally destroyed all sense of rating risk that brought on the sub-prime crisis. The government basicly said to all other banks and lenders that lending to people that couldn’t pay was a good thing.
That is a ridiculous statement and it is not the cause of the problems.
It is typical of libertarians and “anti-government” folks to over-simplify or mischaracterize issues for the sake of their ideologies.
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@GarySFBCN wrote:
1. It was actually not deregulation but regulation from the governments “Freddy Mac and Fanny Ass” that basicly totally destroyed all sense of rating risk that brought on the sub-prime crisis. The government basicly said to all other banks and lenders that lending to people that couldn’t pay was a good thing.
That is a ridiculous statement and it is not the cause of the problems.
It is typical of libertarians and “anti-government” folks to over-simplify or mischaracterize issues for the sake of their ideologies.
Adress the subject instead but I guess you agree with me on this.
While we are still offtopic I might enlighten you that I’m very praghmatic in my views.
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There are several sites that debunk this myth that is often cited by bankers, Republicans, libertarians, Fox News and other equally discredited sources.
Here’s one:
http://mediamatters.org/research/2008/10/10/myths-and-falsehoods-about-the-purported-link-b/145596
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@GarySFBCN wrote:
There are several sites that debunk this myth that is often cited by bankers, Republicans, libertarians, Fox News and other equally discredited sources.
Here’s one:
http://mediamatters.org/research/2008/10/10/myths-and-falsehoods-about-the-purported-link-b/145596
This is not about blaming anyone specifically because few are without any guilt. The two parties are equally guilty and I agree upon that the republicans tried to spin it their way in the last few years.
What happened was not that lenders where forced to do anything but private lenders could give out loans to anyone and then they sold stocks “with crappy loands” to Fanny and Freddy. They accepted basicly anything. Private financial institutes would in the beginning never accepts anything like that but in the end after many years even them swayed by greed started doing it because they could see it work for Freddy and Fanny. Add to that a few rating institutes with vested interests. In turn when foreign investors bought bonds later on they got these toxic assets on their hands. The rest is history. If you can’t see how this regulation didn’t fuel it I’m not sure how to put it. How could regulatory agencies have helped this when all the people appointed often have very close ties to these same financial institutions? Greed should never be underestimated and it will find it’s way in to any nook and crannies in government.
People also lied on many of these loan applications and it was also encouraged by the lenders. Freddy and Fanny never even looked it up in a majority of cases.
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You can trace the deregulation process in financial markets as far back as 1986 after so called ‘big bang’. London capital markets prior to ‘big bang’ were non competitive in the increasingly global market. Restrictions and fail safe mechanisms trusted for centuries were swept away in the manic pursuit of profit.
It’s interesting to note that the few European countries that did not take part in this deregulation to the same extent have since suffered least.
In the US fundamental and pragmatic banking regulations, which arose from the devastating financial collapses of the Great Depression, for decades strengthened U.S. banks and capital markets, making them the twin engines of American growth and the envy of the world. They were gradually removed in the decades after ‘big bang’ and finally abolished altogether by the Securities and Exchange commission in 2004.
I maintain that these moves contributed in principal to the eventual debacle we are mired in right now. A new breed of investment banker was born that lacked the traditional caution and restraint of history. Institutions such as pensions funds and insurance companies needed to produce ever increasing returns from investment to satisfy their own shareholders.
The growth this new order created over decades was truly astonishing yet it was in reality nothing more than a giant Ponsi scheme doomed to eventual collapse.
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Back on planet earth and in the present and on European soil, I watched Spanish mortgage lending from close-up, having a Spanish bank manager in charge of regional lending policy within my circle of friends.
I don’t know the finer details of Fanny and Freddie in the US but would imagine it wasn’t much different to what I witnessed here in Spain. At a basic level, people were encouraged to borrow to buy houses irrespective of their ability to repay the loans. It wasn’t uncommon to download bogus qualifications from the internet to support loan applications that were hardly checked anyway. Bank valuations were ridiculously optimistic and 130% mortgages, repayable over 40 years became the norm.
Had property prices kept on rising, none of it would have been a problem, but they didn’t, they started falling. Those clever officials, the analysts, suddenly blessed with amazing hindsight, are now throwing up their hands in horror, just as we are doing right now.
I watched some daft Commons committee questioning the heads of the main British banks, and asking them how it all happened. Sir Fred, the head of RBS at the time, looked them in the eye and shook his head as if to say ‘what don’t you understand?’
He was right. It really wasn’t anyone’s fault, it’s the way the world is.
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@Rocker wrote:
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It really wasn’t anyone’s fault, it’s the way the world is.The ‘world’ Rocker is the way it was by design not natural evolution.
If you remove controls people will exploit any system for their own ends regardless of the outcome. It does not have to be like that and it’s significant governments around the world have now in place tighter regulation in response to the crash.
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I agree that we need regulations and international courts to oversee them, and the world is a pretty benign place at the moment, and I hope it stays that way.
But history shows that it can all change very quickly, I read only this morning that UKIP now command 15% of British votes. Eighty short years ago, another European country similarly turned to the Nationalists in uncertain times. No good came from it.
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He was right. It really wasn’t anyone’s fault, it’s the way the world is.
To find ‘fault’, one simply needs to find who profited from this: Bankers. To say that there is nobody at fault, that there is no blame is ridiculous.
Blaming regulations, which were abused, ignored and gamed by those who profited by giving mortgages to those who could not qualify, is equally ridiculous. Please note that in the US, executives of industry associations bribe members of Congress with donations. And those executive are rewarded for those donations with favorable laws or when Congress can’t remove a restrictive law, the defunding of agencies responsible for oversight of the restrictive laws, so there is no enforcement.
We don’t blame the a functioning traffic signal for those drivers who choose to run a red light, crashing into on-coming traffic and killing people.
My own experience is telling. In the early 1990s I was in market for a new home. I submitted my papers to ‘pre-qualify’ for a mortgage in the US. I set my limit at $300k. The bank responded that I could ‘afford’ a $700k mortgage and why didn’t I look for a bigger/better home? I am fiscally conservative, but in my wildest imagination, I could not see how I could afford such a high mortgage. There was no regulators telling the banks that they needed to do this.
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Blaming bankers is too easy, not that I’m saying they’re blameless. But the way the world is you can start the blame game right at the bottom, with the dustman applying for a Fanny mortgage in Las Vegas, to the top politician receiving bribes from businesses.
You can buy a peerage in the UK, or a football club, all with ‘black’ money; and I’m not going to start on Spanish corruption, it would spoil my Sunday dinner. I can smell it so I’m going to stop writing.
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@Rocker wrote:
Blaming bankers is too easy, not that I’m saying they’re blameless. But the way the world is you can start the blame game right at the bottom, with the dustman applying for a Fanny mortgage in Las Vegas, to the top politician receiving bribes from businesses.
You can buy a peerage in the UK, or a football club, all with ‘black’ money; and I’m not going to start on Spanish corruption, it would spoil my Sunday dinner. I can smell it so I’m going to stop writing.
Thats total crap,you can’t blame the binman for trying to better himself but the more intelligent and qualified banker should of said no thats what he is there for. so you can blame the greed of the banker for letting the binman have a mortgage he couldn’t afford
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There are only 2 ways out of the current mess, inflate or default. I expect most will try inflate (if they can, Japan can’t do it, yet) The only thing guaranteed at the moment is that somebody is going to loose big time, and it’s looking like the savers and the general public will be sacrificed.
How about liquidating the accounts and other assets of all guilty financial industry executives, shuttering several culpable financial institutions and selling their commercial real estate and other assets, liquidating all their stock shares (yes, shareholders should bear the risk of their gambling), etc. before we ask ‘the general public’ for one penny?
Seriously, you act as if you have Stockholm Syndrome.
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Gary – I’m trying to predict what I think what will happen, not what “should” happen.
As a saver I certainly don’t want to have my money devalued through inflation. I’m not sure where I gave the impression that protecting the culpable was the right thing to do.I apologize – I was addressing a composite of posts here that, at best, indicate that there is ‘equal blame’ for the crisis, and clearly your post was not among those.
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I agree with mg. His/her four points are a cut to the quick.
Central banks in the UK and US are actually currently in a process of re inflating their economies through the process of QE. The problem is it’s not working. Banks, companies and institutions are hoarding cash instead of increasing the money supply. Lenders are now risk averse causing economies to stagnate. There is a strong fear factor causing am economic log jam.Things cannot continue as they are without further massive damage to western economies.
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In our frustration, are we now calling to jail people for the offence of being intelligent? To work for Goldman Sachs you need a top degree in Economics and your sole purpose in life is making money for the company. Those bankers are not social workers, but when a company or country asks for their expensive advice, they get the best there is.
In the years prior to 2008, governments like the UK praised their bankers and the City, the City alone made the country rich, and still does. We heaped honours on them, the top dogs were all made Sirs or even Lords.
Is fixing the Libor rate any different to supermarkets getting together to fix the price of bananas? Or a country printing monopoly money?
Having said all that, if they’re looking for a volunteer to operate the guillotine as the bankers heads roll, I’ll volunteer. They lost me a packet.
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@Rocker wrote:
In our frustration, are we now calling to jail people for the offence of being intelligent? To work for Goldman Sachs you need a top degree in Economics and your sole purpose in life is making money for the company. Those bankers are not social workers, but when a company or country asks for their expensive advice, they get the best there is.
In the years prior to 2008, governments like the UK praised their bankers and the City, the City alone made the country rich, and still does. We heaped honours on them, the top dogs were all made Sirs or even Lords.
Is fixing the Libor rate any different to supermarkets getting together to fix the price of bananas? Or a country printing monopoly money?
Having said all that, if they’re looking for a volunteer to operate the guillotine as the bankers heads roll, I’ll volunteer. They lost me a packet.
No we are saying those that did deals that they knew would go bad just to get the commission and bonuses should be.The bankers have acted like kids in a sweet shop taking what ever they could but now they don’t want to pay the bill.So all us honest hard working people have to.Its wrong that they get away with it on so many levels
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I believe all governments are reluctant to act against bankers, perhaps because they have bankrolled them into power, or simply out of respect for what used to be an upright profession. In my younger days I was in awe of bank managers, those people had the power to control how much money I could spend on my children, or what kind of house I could bring them up in.
It took me years to figure out that they were just as human as the rest of us, and just as tempted when a pot of gold floated past, and insider dealing wasn’t even against the law until recent years.
And on those occasions when filling out forms for loans or mortgages, have we always told the truth and nothing but the truth? I admit that I haven’t, and when does an exaggeration become an actionable lie?
That was my earlier point, the world is not a black and white place, bad things happen.
And did Bob Diamond at Barclays not know about the Libor fixing? It’s easy to overlook things when you’re paid ten million a year.
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And on those occasions when filling out forms for loans or mortgages, have we always told the truth and nothing but the truth? I admit that I haven’t, and when does an exaggeration become an actionable lie?
Perhaps I am lucky that I don’t have to exaggerate. Regardless it is somebody’s responsibility to verify what you submitted on your loan application – in this situation, they are the gatekeepers. And then there are the people who are supposed to monitor those who verify your information. They were absent as well. I resent that taxpayers are being asked to bail-out financial institutions that, at best, were negligent.
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It’s human nature to look after their own self interest therfor the only way to rid our society of all structure that gives people this sort of extreme power. That goes for the goold ole worker to the bankster. The biggest grief I have with bailouts are that it basicly only hurts the normal Joe. The banks have gambled and should pay dearly for it.
If a bank can only lend out what they have in deposits situations like this would never possibly occur. Savers would actually carefully choose a bank that is responsible at the same time giving that bank an advantage. As it is now it’s just a ponzi scheme which will eventually will fall together.
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In our frustration, are we now calling to jail people for the offence of being intelligent? To work for Goldman Sachs you need a top degree in Economics and your sole purpose in life is making money for the company.
So if Jack the Ripper had a top degree, he should be excused from his crimes?
Anyway, Iceland has it right:
Executives at Collapsed Iceland Bank Jailed for Fraud
REYKJAVIK (Reuters) – Two former executives at an Icelandic bank which collapsed in the 2008 financial meltdown were sentenced to jail on Friday for fraud which led to a 53 million euro loss, in the first major trial of Icelandic bankers linked to the crisis.
http://www.nytimes.com/reuters/2012/12/28/business/28reuters-iceland-crisis.html?hp&_r=1&
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I always thought the first prosecutions from the banking scandal would come from Nordic countries, they tend to be more honest than the South. The populations of the cold countries pay their taxes, the warmer it gets, the more people want to cheat the system.
So does honesty depend on the sun? I’m not being facetious and I’m sure my assertion could be backed by statistics but I’m staying away from Google this early on this bright morning on the last day of the year.
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