February 15, 2012 at 8:10 am #56524
Year on year:
General -6.6% (Dec -8.1%)
Costas -8.1% (Dec -7.2%)
Peak (Dec 2007) to present:
February 15, 2012 at 10:38 am #107919
Thanks Brian, as always.
Is the Jinsa index more reliable than Tinsa’s?
February 15, 2012 at 11:53 am #107920
Hehe…. not my first typo and no doubt there are many more to come. 😉
February 15, 2012 at 12:00 pm #107921
How is it possible that the index have been lagging so much?
February 15, 2012 at 1:45 pm #107924
The problem Ardun is the general opaqueness of the market. Tinsa is probably the best of the indices out there but it is still, I believe, lagging the real market by 12-24 months.
The official figures are laughable. I recall a time a while back that they were still reporting price increases even though everybody knew at that stage that the market had been falling for a couple of years.
One of the main problems is the historical data. Up until a few years ago it was common practice for part of a property transaction to be done under the table to avoid tax. A 200k sale for example would be declared to the authorities as a 150k sale, the remaining 50k would be paid separately.
My understanding is that this is now mostly a thing of the past however it still greatly distorts current figures. For example, let us say the property that was sold for 200k a few years ago is now sold,and registered as so for 120k. The actual fall in value would be 40% (bought 200k, sold 120k) however the official figures would only show a 20% fall (bought 150k, sold 120k).
Nobody, whatever they claim, really knows where the market is here.
February 15, 2012 at 2:22 pm #107927
brianc_li that is actually a very logical explanation and i totally forgot about how they did deals back in the days.
February 15, 2012 at 6:09 pm #107933
With taxes on resales going up, for example in Andalucia, expect B-money to make a comeback (and further distort official prices 😕 )
February 15, 2012 at 6:36 pm #107934
It never left – creative accounting has come in as well as the usual bags of cash 🙂
February 15, 2012 at 7:09 pm #107935
I must have had very law abiding customers. =)
February 20, 2012 at 3:59 pm #107965
Another distortion often overlooked but perhaps not totally relevant in Tinsa terms on prices is…
Sales completed volumes in 2006 and 2007 seems to show the market still rising or being active at that time, when nothing could have been further from the truth, what you had however was a huge volume of completions from properties that would have been purchased off-plan in from say 2002 onwards and were completing in 06-07.
So when you look at sales activity it is often grossly distorted by completion dates having been far beyond initial agreement to purchase.
Not sure if this helps but it is my contribution anyway!
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