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This is a thread to share thought-provoking perspectives on asset prices in the world today.
Starting with this interview with Jeremy Grantham, Co-founder and Chief Investment Strategist of Grantham Mayo Van Otterloo. It is fascinating.
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More Kyle Bass. Always a pleasure to listen to, even if what he says isn’g going to make you feel good:
[youtube:241y679f]5V3kpKzd-Yw[/youtube:241y679f]
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For how much longer? That is the million dollar question. If you knew the answer you could make a killing!
More from Kyle Bass on Japan and sub-prime in the US.
[youtube:i5yuf909]rQdlifGg7eI[/youtube:i5yuf909]
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Good short article on volatility and “black swans”
http://fooledbyrandomness.com/ForeignAffairs.pdf -
@mgspain wrote:
Regarding the second Kyle Bass interview, I thought the most interesting point was at the 13min 30 sec.
23 housing busts since 1980
Average peak to trough was 6.5 years.
If associated with a banking crisis it was 7.5 years.Say we take him at his word, I don’t know where he got his info from, and then apply this to Spain. The whole country, not individual areas.
My guess would be that Spain peaked at the end of Q2 2007, a banking crisis is associated so we are looking at 7.5 years, note: this is only the average of the previous busts.
In the case of Spain this would bring us to Q4 2014 or Q1 2015 for a theoretical bottom. This is in a deflationary environment and absence of direct money printing.p.s I’m very aware it’s futile to try and time the low point and that different regions will have different timing.
I’m afraid you need to add some years since Spain doesn’t control their own printing presses.
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Interesting interview with Art Cashin. He’s worried about investor complacency on many fronts….
[audio src="https://kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/Broadcast/Entries/2013/4/6_Art_Cashin_files/Art%20Cashin%204%3A6%3A2013.mp3" /] -
I get the TTMYGH newsletter by Grant Williams, which is where I find all this stuff. I assume you subscribe? He writes very well, and talks a lot of sense as far as I’m concerned.
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