Good news at last

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    • #55906
      Anonymous
      Participant

      Spanish home sales soar boost for economy
      Spanish property sales soared almost 30 percent in August on a 12-month basis, official data showed Wednesday, a positive sign for the economy which was badly hit by the collapse of the market in 2008.

      There were 43,817 property transactions during the month, almost the same as in July but up 29.6 percent from August 2009.

      Over the first eight months of the year, property sales have risen 13.8 percent compared with the same period in 2009.

      The bursting of the property bubble plunged the Spanish economy, Europe’s fifth-largest, into its worst recession in decades in 2008 and sent the unemployment rate soaring to more than 20 percent, the highest in the eurozone.

      It emerged during the first quarter of this year with tepid growth of 0.1 percent and 0.2 percent in the second.

      A rise in home sales in January was the first in three years, spurred by lower prices and more attractive interest rates.

      http://www.expatica.com/es/news/spanish-news/spanish-home-sales-soar-boost-for-economy_102814.html

    • #101104
      adiep
      Participant

      Yeah, there must be droves of people queuing up to buy, better get back on that ladder before im priced out of the market !!!

      Honestly, what a nonsense. Homes values in Spain are going to crash worse than in Ireland, its inevitable. When they go, it will be a bloodbath. Get out now if you can !

    • #101123
      katy
      Blocked

      Think I will go with the spanish on this who don’t believe these stats. Main scepticism is that when banks foreclose on a property this is counted as a sale 😯 Inheritances are also counted as a sale. 😯 Anyone looking at what is on sale knows the true state of the market……………dead as a dodo! 😯

    • #101124
      Fuengi (Andrew)
      Participant

      @katy wrote:

      Think I will go with the spanish on this who don’t believe these stats. Main scepticism is that when banks foreclose on a property this is counted as a sale 😯 Inheritances are also counted as a sale. 😯 Anyone looking at what is on sale knows the true state of the market……………dead as a dodo! 😯

      got to disagree with you there. If you look at the stats they show that of a total transfer of property titles on dwellings, 43,817 referred to sales. The total figure including swaps, inheritance, etc… on dwellings was 70,569 for august.

    • #101125
      Anonymous
      Participant

      We’ve seen this before. If memory serves me right the last time was late last year. The market has continued to fall since. General consensus is that, whatever the cause of the stats, it is an anomily rather than any reflection on what is happening in the market.

      My best guess is that this is down to banks restructuring the finances of one or more large developer. As part of the deal some or all of the developers assets are transferred to the bank. This in turn causes the blip in the stats.

    • #101126
      Fuengi (Andrew)
      Participant

      @brianc_li wrote:

      We’ve seen this before. If memory serves me right the last time was late last year. The market has continued to fall since. General consensus is that, whatever the cause of the stats, it is an anomily rather than any reflection on what is happening in the market.

      Septembre last year? 37621 dwellings sold. But as you can see that market as not continued to fall. Although as an average we do appear to be looking at around 34.000 sales a month.But that appears to be because 4 low months have brought the average down

      33,060 aug 2009
      37,621 sept
      33060 oct
      34828 nov
      32148 dec
      38263 jan
      41033 feb
      37,561 mar
      34326 apr
      37787 may
      37297 jun
      43838 jul
      43817 aug 2010

      @brianc_li wrote:

      My best guess is that this is down to banks restructuring the finances of one or more large developer. As part of the deal some or all of the developers assets are transferred to the bank. This in turn causes the blip in the stats.

      Again the the 43.817 refers to the the merchanting of dwellings. inheritance, swaps and others bring the figure up to 70.569 on urban dwellings.

      If we were to include all urban and rustic property types (incl. plots), the full figure for the transfer of property rights stands at 152.836

    • #101143
      adiep
      Participant

      These stats are a nonsense.

    • #101145
      logan
      Participant

      What distorts all statistics is the hidden political motivation behind government numbers. Zapatereo recently announced the property crash was over so numbers must be produced to support his daft pronouncements.
      At the moment banks are shifting stocks with deals such as 50 year mortgages at 0.90% interest rate, rent for 5 years at a subsidised level with options to buy, with all the rent paid returned on purchase. One bank Caja Habitat will sell you a property with nothing to pay for 3 years, no interest, no fees, nada. Of course people take these deals without consideration for the future when the cheap deal will soon be unaffordable. Folks just want somewhere to live. They don’t want to know about tomorrow when their mortgage rate could be in double figures.
      The dishonesty of these banks is stunning and a national scandal but they don’t care they simply want to show the crash is over.
      Papering over the gaping holes does not really convince anyone except agents and sellers who want to start rolling a bandwagon.

    • #101148
      Anonymous
      Participant

      Having seen how UK government statistics are collated I never believe any!! Statistics, statistics and damn lies as the old saying goes, as true now as then.

    • #101161
      angie
      Blocked

      Not so good news for Brits buying in Spain with the current exchange rate around 1.13/14 to the pound so that will deter these buyers methinks, but very good for sellers converting back to sterling, it means people can afford to drop prices significantly and still get out fairly clean if need be. If I was a seller in a community of similar properties, I would definitely market at a good discount if converting to sterling, whilst others seem to be wanting it all ways and not reducing.

    • #101166
      Fuengi (Andrew)
      Participant

      @logan wrote:

      At the moment banks are shifting stocks with deals such as 50 year mortgages at 0.90% interest rate, rent for 5 years at a subsidised level with options to buy, with all the rent paid returned on purchase. One bank Caja Habitat will sell you a property with nothing to pay for 3 years, no interest, no fees, nada. Of course people take these deals without consideration for the future when the cheap deal will soon be unaffordable. Folks just want somewhere to live. They don’t want to know about tomorrow when their mortgage rate could be in double figures.

      I will agree that these sort of deals are ‘stimulating’ some sales.

      and Zapatero was saying that prices have bottomed out. And as we all know simply because sales are up does not mean there will be (in general) a rebound in prices for some time to come.

      And I know you all like to be cynical on SPI, but lets be realistic, if this was purely political manipulation don’t you think the figures would have been bumped up more? For example in January 2007, 83713 dwellings were sold (best month of 2007). Whereas this year the best month was July with 43838 dwelling sold. 2010 peek is still 50% (+/-) less than 2007 peek.

    • #101167
      Fuengi (Andrew)
      Participant

      @angie wrote:

      Not so good news for Brits buying in Spain with the current exchange rate around 1.13/14 to the pound so that will deter these buyers methinks, but very good for sellers converting back to sterling, it means people can afford to drop prices significantly and still get out fairly clean if need be. If I was a seller in a community of similar properties, I would definitely market at a good discount if converting to sterling, whilst others seem to be wanting it all ways and not reducing.

      unfortunately most (not all though) of the growth in in july and august has been in new builds.

      resales:
      18,807 jan
      19665 feb
      19,212 mar
      17263 apr
      18704 may
      19339 jun
      21241 jul
      20507 aug

      new build:
      19,456 jan
      21368 feb
      18,349 mar
      17063 apr
      19083 may
      17958 jun
      22597 jul
      23310 aug

      BTW of the total sales, it is worth pointing out that on average about 4000 properties sold every month are VPOs

    • #101168
      logan
      Participant

      VPO’s? 😕

    • #101169
      Fuengi (Andrew)
      Participant

      @logan wrote:

      VPO’s? 😕

      viviendas the protection oficial

      Government subsidised housing.

    • #101172
      logan
      Participant

      Thanks. 😀 Add those to the banks subsidised so called ‘sales’ and all the other phoney baloney figures and oh yes, dear me there really is a property crash. 😳 Try asking a bank for a mortgage on a property they don’t own or have already financed and they will hear the laughs all the way down the Calle. 😀
      The Brits trying to sell and who are looking to make a killing on the exchange rate difference will need to find a cash buyer willing and stupid enough to hand over his dosh.

    • #101173
      Fuengi (Andrew)
      Participant

      @logan wrote:

      Thanks. 😀 Add those to the banks subsidised so called ‘sales’ and all the other phoney baloney figures and oh yes, dear me there really is a property crash. 😳 Try asking a bank for a mortgage on a property they don’t own or have already financed and they will here the laughs all the way down the Calle. 😀
      The Brits trying to sell and who are looking to make a killing on the exchange rate difference will need to find a cash buyer willing and stupid enough to hand over his dosh.

      although I can only go by personal experience quite a few banks are willing to give 80% for residents and 70% for non-residents. But this is only based on my own experience and I cannot back it up with any official stats. The criteria is tougher, but possible.

    • #101175
      logan
      Participant

      Yes but I repeat, on properties in which they already have an interest. That’s about half to two thirds of the current market.

    • #101184
      Fuengi (Andrew)
      Participant

      @logan wrote:

      Yes but I repeat, on properties in which they already have an interest. That’s about half to two thirds of the current market.

      a can’t comment on that as I don’t know of any information source to agree or disagree. This could very well be the case for all I know.

      although again from my experiences, i can have 3 doing ‘going through’ where the buyers need mortgages. in all 3 cases there is no current mortgage on the property and the banks seem to be financing the deal without issue. The banks in question are CajaMadrid and Banco de Andalucia.

    • #101191
      angie
      Blocked

      Fuengi, don’t you think that a proportion of those improved sales figures were down to the fact that sterling strengthened aginst the Euro for a few months back to over 1.20 whereas now it’s fallen back again, also, another lot of those sales might be attributed to buyers already in the Eurozone?

      BTW, Money Week listed their 4 toxic investments to dump yesterday:

      1. Property, (if people are thinking of selling, now is the time they say, but not to buy, talking UK property here) They cite, the market is overpriced again, mortgage difficulties with further clampdowns by FSA, austerity cuts coming and unemployment likely to rise.

      2. The FTSE, they think this is overblown now, dangerous territory.

      3. The Euro, good news if this happens for those Brits wishing to buy in Spain and Eurozone.

      4. Gov’t Bonds.

      It will be interesting to see what if any of these comes true, they got gold right which is still rising and think it may go over $2200 per oz.

    • #101193
      Fuengi (Andrew)
      Participant

      @angie wrote:

      Fuengi, don’t you think that a proportion of those improved sales figures were down to the fact that sterling strengthened aginst the Euro for a few months back to over 1.20 whereas now it’s fallen back again, also, another lot of those sales might be attributed to buyers already in the Eurozone?

      Hi Angie, I honestly have no idea. Again I can only go by my experiences

      brits makes up a very small minority of of buyers at the moment. Eurozone buyers (irish, italian, french) make up about 15/20% of the total and the rest are spanish, with the occasional moroccan.

      But this is only personal experience, chances are the next agent has probably had totally different experiences.

    • #101197
      logan
      Participant

      My Spanish bank contacts all tell me lending on none stake properties has ceased unless there are special circumstances. I am sure there are small examples of individuals being able to obtain finance for a variety of reasons. I am referring to the mass market.
      Banks all have a stake in new build through historical lending to developers. A large amount of property built by developers but unsold are now in the hands of banks through default. Repossessions from individuals are also flooding the market.
      Buyers will be able to obtain 100% finance with very low rates from Bank owned property. Until this huge backlog is reduced the banks have little or no interest in anything else. However they know demand is very weak so they are holding back the flood gates and not releasing property in large quantities for fear of depressing the market further.
      That said it is possible to negotiate deals but it’s hard work.

    • #101198
      adiep
      Participant

      The short term selling tactics are (IMO) going to trap many people into negative equity. But they just hope they can fend of a crash until Germany and the UK come out of recession. Good luck with that one, the tories looks like that have some sustain agony planned.

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