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“The Spanish housing market is poised for an extended period of adjustment, with prices declining until 2012,”
http://www.google.com/hostednews/afp/article/ALeqM5jc6vtbydXXrvi_Xf_ae9kAAdcIcQ
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Re. the map, bear in mind that the article was aimed at Americans. How many Europeans do you think could accurately place Washington DC on a US map?
I don´t see what the contradiction is. The UK market didn´t rise as fast as the Spanish one. It has also, according to the available indexes, fallen faster. What S&P are saying is that the UK market will stop falling next year. That this process will take a lot longer in Spain.
It makes sense to me.
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brian_li
I don’t think UK prices will ever fall much further, due to the supply/demand situation. However there’s thousands of half finished, in the middle of nowhere, undesirable properties in Spain that are probably worth next to nothing, and with Spains current reputation for property purchase, will probably remain that way? I would have thought that’s bound to have a big effect on all but the most desirable properties in good locations in short supply?
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brian_li
yes, you might well be right?. Very much depends on the area though I think?. Far more ‘for sale’ and ‘sold’ boards around my area (Northants) than there was this time last year. Prices gone down about 8-10% since then.
The outlook does still look bleak though, lack of jobs, and Bank Of England report this morning, so who knows?
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I think it’s generally accepted that the boom in global property prices (which took them so far away from their long term averages as measured by sustainable fundamental metrics) was caused by a ‘never’ to be repeated credit/debt binge (2002 to 2007), both the market and regulators will see to that. The consequences of that binge are yet to work their way out of the system and will still be being paid for by the next generation.
UK prices are down circa 20% from their autumn 2007 peak. With unemployment, mortgage arrears, corporate/business insolvencies and repos set to rise dramatically over the coming 18 months or so (don’t forget even in we technically come out of recession the symptoms and pain, hang over for at least a couple of years) and as a consequence the lenders increase both their underwriting criteria and risk premium on borrowing, UK property prices will fall further. Whether prices fall by the bulls predicted circa 10% (taking the 2007 to 2011 crash to around 30%) or by some forecasters 40% (taking the 2007 to 2013 crash to around 60%) is a subject worthy of discussion.
Dorset is an interesting one, looking at selling prices in Poole/B’mouth Apartments/Flats are now ‘selling for about the same price as was being achieved back in circa 2003/4. Many new build are 50% down off peak. On average though prices are down about 18 to 20%. Worst hit are (as ever studios, new build 2 bed classic BTL flats and top of the range ‘trophy’ houses).
Prices down 20%! by any measure that is directly equated to the artificial boom, so probably just the froth blowing off.
There is more activity in the market (from a record low base) but in every crash there are several ‘dead cat bounces’. My guess is there is quite a long way down to go yet, as the sentiment of the ‘sheeple’ turns more negative in 2010 and forced sales start in earnest. 2011 may be a good time for FTB’s to get on the ladder or serious invetors to step in?
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@Pablo Silver or Lead? wrote:
I think it’s generally accepted that the boom in global property prices (which took them so far away from their long term averages as measured by sustainable fundamental metrics) was caused by a ‘never’ to be repeated credit/debt binge (2002 to 2007), both the market and regulators will see to that. The consequences of that binge are yet to work their way out of the system and will still be being paid for by the next generation.
UK prices are down circa 20% from their autumn 2007 peak. With unemployment, mortgage arrears, corporate/business insolvencies and repos set to rise dramatically over the coming 18 months or so (don’t forget even in we technically come out of recession the symptoms and pain, hang over for at least a couple of years) and as a consequence the lenders increase both their underwriting criteria and risk premium on borrowing, UK property prices will fall further. Whether prices fall by the bulls predicted circa 10% (taking the 2007 to 2011 crash to around 30%) or by some forecasters 40% (taking the 2007 to 2013 crash to around 60%) is a subject worthy of discussion.
Dorset is an interesting one, looking at selling prices in Poole/B’mouth Apartments/Flats are now ‘selling for about the same price as was being achieved back in circa 2003/4. Many new build are 50% down off peak. On average though prices are down about 18 to 20%. Worst hit are (as ever studios, new build 2 bed classic BTL flats and top of the range ‘trophy’ houses).
Prices down 20%! by any measure that is directly equated to the artificial boom, so probably just the froth blowing off.
There is more activity in the market (from a record low base) but in every crash there are several ‘dead cat bounces’. My guess is there is quite a long way down to go yet, as the sentiment of the ‘sheeple’ turns more negative in 2010 and forced sales start in earnest. 2011 may be a good time for FTB’s to get on the ladder or serious invetors to step in?
Excellent points, very well said, thanks for that, just two quick points which I would make:
1. WTF has it got to do with Spain?.
2. Even on House Price Crash a post like that would bore half the readers to death?. Why inflict it on people on here?. -
Mary
Many UK buyers in Spain released ‘equity’ which has now disappeared from their UK homes or portfolio, to either purchase outright or put down a big deposit. So with prices both in Spain and the UK crashing it’s a double whammy that impacts both markets, no?
In Spain (and here I’m talking about the Costas which attract esturinal Brits) as I predicted 4 to 5 years ago, there will be soon be tens of thousands of properties that are ‘effectively’ worthless or available for key/pin money.
As the global recession and credit crunch returns Spain to the poor unreconstructed rural economy it is (Ireland is heading the same way), then even good properties in good areas will be down 50%+ peak to trough by the end 2011. Neither the Spanish, Brits, Dutch, German nor Eastern Europeans will have either the wherewithal or the motivation to either support current inflated prices or prevent this ‘revision to the mean’.
Market forces driven by the debt/bad debt overhang will see to that
We are in the midst of the biggest global financial crisis for 70 years, caused by a huge debt bubble, and I’d guess were not half way through the inevitable bust.Relevance to Spain on a forum frequented by many Brits, some who are going to have to face some tough decisions going forward, I think so.
PS. The tread is about European prices, UK = Europe.
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@Pablo Silver or Lead? wrote:
Mary
Many UK buyers in Spain released ‘equity’ which has now disappeared from their UK homes or portfolio, to either purchase outright or put down a big deposit. So with prices both in Spain and the UK crashing it’s a double whammy that impacts both markets, no?
In Spain (and here I’m talking about the Costas which attract esturinal Brits) as I predicted 4 to 5 years ago, there will be soon be tens of thousands of properties that are ‘effectively’ worthless or available for key/pin money.
As the global recession and credit crunch returns Spain to the poor unreconstructed rural economy it is (Ireland is heading the same way), then even good properties in good areas will be down 50%+ peak to trough by the end 2011. Neither the Spanish, Brits, Dutch, German nor Eastern Europeans will have either the wherewithal or the motivation to either support current inflated prices or prevent this ‘revision to the mean’.
Market forces driven by the debt/bad debt overhang will see to that
We are in the midst of the biggest global financial crisis for 70 years, caused by a huge debt bubble, and I’d guess were not half way through the inevitable bust.Relevance to Spain on a forum frequented by many Brits, some who are going to have to face some tough decisions going forward, I think so.
PS. The tread is about European prices, UK = Europe.
About as much use to anyone as chocolate fireguard, macroeconomic claptrap at best. It’s been said a million times before, practical applications of it all = nill. Same old same old, 3 years ago had a certain amount of relevance, just once when one person said it, but when the millionth person said it?, you must be the tenth million person who’ve said it, it just became blah blah blah blah, and you actually took time to re-iterate it, for the ten million and one time.
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It’s well known that estate agents talk the market up when economists are predicting further falls whether UK or Spain. I know an honest agent in the South of England who has been very busy with sales recently and that he has very little coming on the market.
However he is adamant that this is due to the usual Spring surge coupled with the fact that quite a few people in rented have now started buying. He goes on to say that he believes the market will go very quiet again in a couple of months time or so, that prices will fall further, and when unemployment keeps rising this coming Winter will see the market very weak, in fact he mirrors what the economists are saying. Not many agents have the cahones to speak it right as he does, and he is in an affluent area of the UK.
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I write from personal experience not what an agent tells me. TBH I haven’t come across a bullshitting pushy agent in the UK…yet!
Everytime we go over to view properties at least two on our list have been sold. Some have only been on the market for around 3 weeks. The ones that haven’t sold are either overpriced, on a busy road, overlooked etc.
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@Pablo Silver or Lead? wrote:
As the global recession and credit crunch returns Spain to the poor unreconstructed rural economy it is (Ireland is heading the same way), then even good properties in good areas will be down 50%+ peak to trough by the end 2011. Neither the Spanish, Brits, Dutch, German nor Eastern Europeans will have either the wherewithal or the motivation to either support current inflated prices or prevent this ‘revision to the mean’.
I think there is a danger that someone might turn up in an area devastated by the depression, buy property at a deep discount and then generate resentment amongst the locals whose economy has been wrecked and by the remaining expats who are made to feel a bit silly. So, even when it seems that the Spanish streets are paved with gold it might still be wise to rent for a year and make sure that the welcome is genuine.
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@Pablo Silver or Lead? wrote:
As the global recession and credit crunch returns Spain to the poor unreconstructed rural economy it is (Ireland is heading the same way), then even good properties in good areas will be down 50%+ peak to trough by the end 2011. Neither the Spanish, Brits, Dutch, German nor Eastern Europeans will have either the wherewithal or the motivation to either support current inflated prices or prevent this ‘revision to the mean’.
I think there is a danger that someone might turn up in an area devastated by the depression, buy property at a deep discount and then generate resentment amongst the locals whose economy has been wrecked and by the remaining expats who are made to feel a bit silly. So, even when it seems that the Spanish streets are paved with gold it might still be wise to rent for a year and make sure that the welcome is genuine.
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Is Mary slight Un-Hinge-d?
This forum has been remarkably polite, proactive and very understanding, toward a whole range of opposing issues and views, over the six months or so I have been popping in and out. I don’t quite understand Mary’s position, as I have been welcomed to make the odd comment, despite having had something of a “reputation” out in the marketplace.
I thought Pablo Silver or Leads contribution was a fascinating one actually, I don’t necessarily agree and I haven’t been on a thread with Pablo S/L before, but certainly an erudite chap I would venture.
Haven’t been on a thread with Mary before either, seems to me Mary you went off at the wrong person and in the wrong way here really.
Similarly Alan on here and the linked thread, bit of a shame really, the subject of the thread held a great deal of interest to me.
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Is Mary slight Un-Hinge-d?
This forum has been remarkably polite, proactive and very understanding, toward a whole range of opposing issues and views, over the six months or so I have been popping in and out. I don’t quite understand Mary’s position, as I have been welcomed to make the odd comment, despite having had something of a “reputation” out in the marketplace.
I thought Pablo Silver or Leads contribution was a fascinating one actually, I don’t necessarily agree and I haven’t been on a thread with Pablo S/L before, but certainly an erudite chap I would venture.
Haven’t been on a thread with Mary before either, seems to me Mary you went off at the wrong person and in the wrong way here really.
Similarly Alan on here and the linked thread, bit of a shame really, the subject of the thread held a great deal of interest to me.
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@Chris McCarthy wrote:
I thought Pablo Silver or Leads contribution was a fascinating one actually,
Nah, it was House Price Crash fodder, even they don’t push that sort of stuff out know-days, its like wearing flares.
Relavence to most people = nil, if anyone doesn’t know most of that by know, they must have bought and are living in off-plan apartment on the costa del Mars.
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@Chris McCarthy wrote:
I thought Pablo Silver or Leads contribution was a fascinating one actually,
Nah, it was House Price Crash fodder, even they don’t push that sort of stuff out know-days, its like wearing flares.
Relavence to most people = nil, if anyone doesn’t know most of that by know, they must have bought and are living in off-plan apartment on the costa del Mars.
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Chris
quite agree. Always good to read varying opinions, but when the idiots we are talking about just post rubbish to attract attention or upset people, all we should do is ignore them I think and wait for a post to get the thread back on track. Many of us who have been involved with the Spanish property industry have already dealt with lies and rubbish, so I guess we have to expect a bit of the same on here also. If nothing else it makes me appreciate the posts more from those making contributions to help and advise. I just hope Pablo and others making worthwhile contribution are not put off by those who have no intention to help or discuss, but every intention to upset and ruin the thread.
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Chris
quite agree. Always good to read varying opinions, but when the idiots we are talking about just post rubbish to attract attention or upset people, all we should do is ignore them I think and wait for a post to get the thread back on track. Many of us who have been involved with the Spanish property industry have already dealt with lies and rubbish, so I guess we have to expect a bit of the same on here also. If nothing else it makes me appreciate the posts more from those making contributions to help and advise. I just hope Pablo and others making worthwhile contribution are not put off by those who have no intention to help or discuss, but every intention to upset and ruin the thread.
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Chris, fully agree.
I have disagreed with much of what you have posted here since I´ve been reading this forum but you have always put your case coherently and politely. In that sense, whatever we may be at odds about, your contributions here are valid and welcome.
Trolls, such as Mary and Alan, are an unfortunate fact of internet forums. As goodstich has said, the site is strong enough to see them off.
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Chris, fully agree.
I have disagreed with much of what you have posted here since I´ve been reading this forum but you have always put your case coherently and politely. In that sense, whatever we may be at odds about, your contributions here are valid and welcome.
Trolls, such as Mary and Alan, are an unfortunate fact of internet forums. As goodstich has said, the site is strong enough to see them off.
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i suggest you idiots look in the mirror, then you might see who as you call them, are the real trolls. you need to face facts, and stop your repeated crying over your lost milk, and actually see where the real problem is.its quite clear that some of you are in the same boat and dont want to know where you went wrong. its for sure not all spains fault, but then you wont agree with anything that might lean towards the truth.
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i suggest you idiots look in the mirror, then you might see who as you call them, are the real trolls. you need to face facts, and stop your repeated crying over your lost milk, and actually see where the real problem is.its quite clear that some of you are in the same boat and dont want to know where you went wrong. its for sure not all spains fault, but then you wont agree with anything that might lean towards the truth.
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These two have tried having pops at me in the past so I came to the conclusion that they are probably estate agents or involved in perpetuating the Spanish Property scams for financial gain and their earnings or whatever have probably dried up somewhat.
They really are pathetic to lambast those on here who are pointing out the pitfalls as a result of their own stories, and they forget that people on this site have also been successful in getting monies back and winning cases against the fraudsters and then pass the useful info on to newbies.
The only good thing to come out of Thorntons is chocolate, and it sounds like the Hinge has rusted over and doesn’t work anymore! 😉
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These two have tried having pops at me in the past so I came to the conclusion that they are probably estate agents or involved in perpetuating the Spanish Property scams for financial gain and their earnings or whatever have probably dried up somewhat.
They really are pathetic to lambast those on here who are pointing out the pitfalls as a result of their own stories, and they forget that people on this site have also been successful in getting monies back and winning cases against the fraudsters and then pass the useful info on to newbies.
The only good thing to come out of Thorntons is chocolate, and it sounds like the Hinge has rusted over and doesn’t work anymore! 😉
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@angie wrote:
These two have tried having pops at me in the past so I came to the conclusion that they are probably estate agents or involved in perpetuating the Spanish Property scams for financial gain and their earnings or whatever have probably dried up somewhat.
They really are pathetic to lambast those on here who are pointing out the pitfalls as a result of their own stories, and they forget that people on this site have also been successful in getting monies back and winning cases against the fraudsters and then pass the useful info on to newbies.
The only good thing to come out of Thorntons is chocolate, and it sounds like the Hinge has rusted over and doesn’t work anymore! 😉
Thanks for the Insight 😉 .
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@angie wrote:
These two have tried having pops at me in the past so I came to the conclusion that they are probably estate agents or involved in perpetuating the Spanish Property scams for financial gain and their earnings or whatever have probably dried up somewhat.
They really are pathetic to lambast those on here who are pointing out the pitfalls as a result of their own stories, and they forget that people on this site have also been successful in getting monies back and winning cases against the fraudsters and then pass the useful info on to newbies.
The only good thing to come out of Thorntons is chocolate, and it sounds like the Hinge has rusted over and doesn’t work anymore! 😉
Thanks for the Insight 😉 .
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angie,
get real.
what about those that did’nt leave there brains on the plane, there are many many who have bought and are very happy.
if you want to have a pop first read from the start then you will see its tweedle dee and tweedle dum and cohorts that have the problem.
and i still cant find a full english or brit pub here.l m a o -
angie,
get real.
what about those that did’nt leave there brains on the plane, there are many many who have bought and are very happy.
if you want to have a pop first read from the start then you will see its tweedle dee and tweedle dum and cohorts that have the problem.
and i still cant find a full english or brit pub here.l m a o -
Alan, of course there are many people who have bought successfully in Spain, however a great deal of people have been misled by certain agents and developers and it’s such cases that need to be highlighted if only to warn others, surely you’d agree with that, and ultimately it will improve the property market in Spain and elsewhere, hopefully.
The term ‘left brains on the plane’ has often been played by those agents about purchasers rather than the truth that many of these people were plain duped on these inspection trips advertised in the Press and at exhibitions.
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Alan, of course there are many people who have bought successfully in Spain, however a great deal of people have been misled by certain agents and developers and it’s such cases that need to be highlighted if only to warn others, surely you’d agree with that, and ultimately it will improve the property market in Spain and elsewhere, hopefully.
The term ‘left brains on the plane’ has often been played by those agents about purchasers rather than the truth that many of these people were plain duped on these inspection trips advertised in the Press and at exhibitions.
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angie
some are happy, some did leave their brains at the airport, and some were indeed cheated by liars and con-men, and sadly still are and often by those in a legal position of trust. We all know this now, but some just don’t want to accept this as it’s a bit close to home!! The bads guys on here are easy to spot, they show no support for those wronged, and prefer to insult and blame the victims of the cheats rather than the guilty parties.
Thankfully there’s a fair few on here who are happy to see the truth and despite personal attacks, are prepared to stay and offer support to those in their fight for justice. I think they sleep better at night!
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angie
some are happy, some did leave their brains at the airport, and some were indeed cheated by liars and con-men, and sadly still are and often by those in a legal position of trust. We all know this now, but some just don’t want to accept this as it’s a bit close to home!! The bads guys on here are easy to spot, they show no support for those wronged, and prefer to insult and blame the victims of the cheats rather than the guilty parties.
Thankfully there’s a fair few on here who are happy to see the truth and despite personal attacks, are prepared to stay and offer support to those in their fight for justice. I think they sleep better at night!
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thank you angie,
thats quite correct.
yes there are people who will get duped in the future. i tried when i first posted to explain, but was beaten down by a few very damaged buyers.
yes we must let the new arrivals know of the problems, but moaning about whats already happened however hard it might be does no good.
try to help those that have lost and help those who are about to!
the one thing i would say is that the solicitors in spain are of a different culture and they must be address accordingly.
to deal with spanish briefs would take to long here but they do not deal with your problems the same as the brit briefs. -
thank you angie,
thats quite correct.
yes there are people who will get duped in the future. i tried when i first posted to explain, but was beaten down by a few very damaged buyers.
yes we must let the new arrivals know of the problems, but moaning about whats already happened however hard it might be does no good.
try to help those that have lost and help those who are about to!
the one thing i would say is that the solicitors in spain are of a different culture and they must be address accordingly.
to deal with spanish briefs would take to long here but they do not deal with your problems the same as the brit briefs. -
Hi Guys
I often follow the posts on the forum but haven’t felt like posting. I just wanted to give you some observations on the two markets from someone without a vested interest. My back ground is a property trader/ landlord/ developer buying from distressed sellers mainly in the UK but living in Catalunya for the last 5 years. I have just come back from an auction in Cardiff and watched well located properties with decent rental prospects make between 90-110% of what I would expect the open market value to be.
The plain fact is even in good Spanish locations with residential demand the market is in the emergency ward.
There are still problems in the UK shifting properties in secondary locations or areas saturated with new build flats but these are quickly becoming an exception.
If you ever want a barometer of a market visit an auction and see how the trade behave. -
Hi Guys
I often follow the posts on the forum but haven’t felt like posting. I just wanted to give you some observations on the two markets from someone without a vested interest. My back ground is a property trader/ landlord/ developer buying from distressed sellers mainly in the UK but living in Catalunya for the last 5 years. I have just come back from an auction in Cardiff and watched well located properties with decent rental prospects make between 90-110% of what I would expect the open market value to be.
The plain fact is even in good Spanish locations with residential demand the market is in the emergency ward.
There are still problems in the UK shifting properties in secondary locations or areas saturated with new build flats but these are quickly becoming an exception.
If you ever want a barometer of a market visit an auction and see how the trade behave. -
sandboy
yes, that sounds like good advice. A place is worth what you can get for it, not what some dodgy agents or individuals think it should be worth based on previous values or money tied up in it? Sales in the UK are no doubt suffering due to the credit crunch, but I feel the structure and the supply/demand is still in place, and sales will pick up again with the economy (whenever it recovers?), though nothing like the peak for several years probably? Spain on the other hand seems hell bent on destroying it’s costa’s property industry by lack of common sense and not doing much to put right all the wrongs of the last few years.
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sandboy
yes, that sounds like good advice. A place is worth what you can get for it, not what some dodgy agents or individuals think it should be worth based on previous values or money tied up in it? Sales in the UK are no doubt suffering due to the credit crunch, but I feel the structure and the supply/demand is still in place, and sales will pick up again with the economy (whenever it recovers?), though nothing like the peak for several years probably? Spain on the other hand seems hell bent on destroying it’s costa’s property industry by lack of common sense and not doing much to put right all the wrongs of the last few years.
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