[logan]

Ambrose Pritchard in the Daily Telegraph sees more pain for Spain as the ECB warns of looming interest rate rises.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/comment/ambroseevans_pritchard/8364775/Flat-Earth-European-Central-Bank-misreads-oil-spike-again-and-kicks-Spain-in-the-teeth.html
This has already hiked the Euribor which directly increases the cost of existing Spanish mortgages.

[kgpoc]

After 3 years, and no rate change most people have lost 20-30% (if they have sold), hell I don’t even sell a stock that looses 20% in one year, why would I get out if it lost that much in 3…?
I think the next leg in the driving force for the housing market is about to begin

Everyone is complaining at the ECB for hinting at the rise in real rates and what it will do to banks, people personal wealth, etc, but they are not paying attention to what will happen if they don’t. If Germany stays at this growth rate it will suck more manufacturing out of the EU hurting unemployment and general market/country sustainability. My money is on May/June 2011 and if Germany hit above 2.8% it will go up again.

The ECB has an issue that neither the Fed nor the Bank of England have in that Germany in this current environment is killing its neighbors and that has to be stopped or the systemic problems will be worse (after the ‘Crisis’). May be the Euro has been signalling that all along and why it has stayed high, even when growth prospects looked worse as a whole. Just think, if the Euro drops to say 1.10 -1.20 to the USD Germany growth will pass 3% and the ECB would be forced to raise even more, hence driving the currency back up.

Will this be the nail in the coffin for housing as we know it? Or it just might be the beginning of a new form of ownership of housing! (in some Scandinavian countries you never really own your house outright (in the middle to lower income). The bank will always hold a portion of the debt (40%), you aim to pay off the remaining (60%) and the government give you some fixed low % on that 40 held by the bank) Spanish banks will not get the free pass they had over the last 2 property busts, so I wouldn’t be surprised if something creative starts happening before fire sales.

[kgpoc]

After 3 years, and no rate change most people have lost 20-30% (if they have sold), hell I don’t even sell a stock that looses 20% in one year, why would I get out if it lost that much in 3…?
I think the next leg in the driving force for the housing market is about to begin

Everyone is complaining at the ECB for hinting at the rise in real rates and what it will do to banks, people personal wealth, etc, but they are not paying attention to what will happen if they don’t. If Germany stays at this growth rate it will suck more manufacturing out of the EU hurting unemployment and general market/country sustainability. My money is on May/June 2011 and if Germany hit above 2.8% it will go up again.

The ECB has an issue that neither the Fed nor the Bank of England have in that Germany in this current environment is killing its neighbors and that has to be stopped or the systemic problems will be worse (after the ‘Crisis’). May be the Euro has been signalling that all along and why it has stayed high, even when growth prospects looked worse as a whole. Just think, if the Euro drops to say 1.10 -1.20 to the USD Germany growth will pass 3% and the ECB would be forced to raise even more, hence driving the currency back up.

Will this be the nail in the coffin for housing as we know it? Or it just might be the beginning of a new form of ownership of housing! (in some Scandinavian countries you never really own your house outright (in the middle to lower income). The bank will always hold a portion of the debt (40%), you aim to pay off the remaining (60%) and the government give you some fixed low % on that 40 held by the bank) Spanish banks will not get the free pass they had over the last 2 property busts, so I wouldn’t be surprised if something creative starts happening before fire sales.

[logan]

I agree with your comments. There is a systemic ECB policy to drive up the value of the Euro against the $ in particular. I think that might also be a hedge against the oil price. Oil is priced in US Dollars and a stronger Euro offsets the impact in the Eurozone.
Economists and investors are currently fixated about the oil price and it’s consequences.
The 1973 Yom Kipper war and it’s impact on the world economy is still fresh in their minds.
Personally I think it’s overdone. Oil stocks are high and much alternative energy has been developed since so high oil costs do not have quite the same impact. Also the House of Saud is increasing production.
The sovereign debt crisis and unemployment in club med countries will be exasperated by higher interest rates and Euro strength. The fact that the ECB seems not to have any concern may well be their nemesis.
They cocked it up in 2008 when they prematurely increased rates causing a more rapid slow down in Germany than was necessary. They have not learned that their mandate for price stability is far too narrow and that this obsession is suffocating the economies of the peripheral EU states.

[logan]

I agree with your comments. There is a systemic ECB policy to drive up the value of the Euro against the $ in particular. I think that might also be a hedge against the oil price. Oil is priced in US Dollars and a stronger Euro offsets the impact in the Eurozone.
Economists and investors are currently fixated about the oil price and it’s consequences.
The 1973 Yom Kipper war and it’s impact on the world economy is still fresh in their minds.
Personally I think it’s overdone. Oil stocks are high and much alternative energy has been developed since so high oil costs do not have quite the same impact. Also the House of Saud is increasing production.
The sovereign debt crisis and unemployment in club med countries will be exasperated by higher interest rates and Euro strength. The fact that the ECB seems not to have any concern may well be their nemesis.
They cocked it up in 2008 when they prematurely increased rates causing a more rapid slow down in Germany than was necessary. They have not learned that their mandate for price stability is far too narrow and that this obsession is suffocating the economies of the peripheral EU states.

[Anonymous]

An interesting discussion. I’m going to post a link which I guarantee Ambrose will copy and paste from in his next article.

http://www.spiegel.de/international/europe/0,1518,749707,00.html

Maybe he’s right to do that, he’s done it for 20 years, once he realised that there was a market for his views in the eurosceptic press; he went to the heart of it and copied and pasted everything his followers wanted to hear, adding his own wise comments and German words like Uebermensch to really get them going.

I don’t see anything wrong in it, as long as people realise it’s low-level journalism pandering to people with anti-European views.

[Anonymous]

An interesting discussion. I’m going to post a link which I guarantee Ambrose will copy and paste from in his next article.

http://www.spiegel.de/international/europe/0,1518,749707,00.html

Maybe he’s right to do that, he’s done it for 20 years, once he realised that there was a market for his views in the eurosceptic press; he went to the heart of it and copied and pasted everything his followers wanted to hear, adding his own wise comments and German words like Uebermensch to really get them going.

I don’t see anything wrong in it, as long as people realise it’s low-level journalism pandering to people with anti-European views.

[logan]

@Rocker wrote:

it’s low-level journalism pandering to people with anti-European views.

That comment is without foundation. Do you really think a newspaper of the Telegraph’s standing employs plagiarists?
Moody’s this morning have announced a further downgrade of Spain’s credit rating to Aa2 with negative outlook. Global financial sentiment towards Spain is increasingly negative. It’s not about politics, EU sceptics or anything else, it’s about economics.

[logan]

@Rocker wrote:

it’s low-level journalism pandering to people with anti-European views.

That comment is without foundation. Do you really think a newspaper of the Telegraph’s standing employs plagiarists?
Moody’s this morning have announced a further downgrade of Spain’s credit rating to Aa2 with negative outlook. Global financial sentiment towards Spain is increasingly negative. It’s not about politics, EU sceptics or anything else, it’s about economics.

[Anonymous]

I find it astonishing that there are still people who think it’s a good idea to be dictated to and ruled by a bunch of foreign, delusionally self-important megalomaniacs who feel it their right to over-rule our Parliament. Until a few years ago, I had never even heard of them.

As for Rumpy-Pumpy, he needs certifying.

(Off topic I know but in reply to Rocker)

[Anonymous]

I find it astonishing that there are still people who think it’s a good idea to be dictated to and ruled by a bunch of foreign, delusionally self-important megalomaniacs who feel it their right to over-rule our Parliament. Until a few years ago, I had never even heard of them.

As for Rumpy-Pumpy, he needs certifying.

(Off topic I know but in reply to Rocker)

[katy]

Off topic too….EU funding American anti death penalty groups. Our elected members are letting us down 👿

http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/nilegardiner/100078360/the-european-union-gives-millions-in-taxpayers%E2%80%99-money-to-anti-death-penalty-groups-in-america/#

[katy]

Off topic too….EU funding American anti death penalty groups. Our elected members are letting us down 👿

http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/nilegardiner/100078360/the-european-union-gives-millions-in-taxpayers%E2%80%99-money-to-anti-death-penalty-groups-in-america/#

[logan]

Herman Van Rumpoy was elected president of the EU exactly because he is a non-entity unlikely to compete with other EU leaders, especially Sarkozy and Merkle. He has a none pointless job.

[logan]

Herman Van Rumpoy was elected president of the EU exactly because he is a non-entity unlikely to compete with other EU leaders, especially Sarkozy and Merkle. He has a none pointless job.

[Anonymous]

“I find it astonishing that there are still people who think it’s a good idea to be dictated to and ruled by a bunch of foreign “

Whats the difference being ruled by foreignor or not. The system is designed to be ruled. It seams you have problem with foreignors !!!!!!!!!!!.

[Anonymous]

“I find it astonishing that there are still people who think it’s a good idea to be dictated to and ruled by a bunch of foreign “

Whats the difference being ruled by foreignor or not. The system is designed to be ruled. It seams you have problem with foreignors !!!!!!!!!!!.

[katy]

Why is it astonishing, isn’t that why all the British colonies fought for “home rule”?

[katy]

Why is it astonishing, isn’t that why all the British colonies fought for “home rule”?

[logan]

There is so much opposition to the EU in Britain I wonder sometimes how any governments manages to hold the status quo.
The answer I think to that perhaps is it never really becomes an issue in parliamentary elections and Britain needs the free trade area.
UKIP cannot make much real headway because they are seen as a bunch of right wing extremists.
The same can be said here in France. Opposition to the EU is just as strong, yet it’s never an issue at election time. The far right will take France out of the EU but they have no hope of being elected.
I think the truth lies in how the EU directly affects the electorate in both countries. Everyone moans about the stupidity of the institutions but it’s actually so far removed from people’s day to day lives, come election time more important issues arise.
The French just give a Gallic shrug and vote as they always have.
People like to feel they are governed by their own parliaments but in fact they are not, especially if they are in the Euro currency zone. They don’t even have control over their individual economies.
I don’t believe that state of affairs can continue much longer. The sovereign debt crisis will just overwhelm the peripheral states.
Bailouts may come and go but in the end it’s just a greater debt mountain and an unbearable burden on future generations.
These countries need to go back to earning their own living with all the consequences which will follow.
Free trade yes, political, economic and social integration impossible. 🙁

[logan]

There is so much opposition to the EU in Britain I wonder sometimes how any governments manages to hold the status quo.
The answer I think to that perhaps is it never really becomes an issue in parliamentary elections and Britain needs the free trade area.
UKIP cannot make much real headway because they are seen as a bunch of right wing extremists.
The same can be said here in France. Opposition to the EU is just as strong, yet it’s never an issue at election time. The far right will take France out of the EU but they have no hope of being elected.
I think the truth lies in how the EU directly affects the electorate in both countries. Everyone moans about the stupidity of the institutions but it’s actually so far removed from people’s day to day lives, come election time more important issues arise.
The French just give a Gallic shrug and vote as they always have.
People like to feel they are governed by their own parliaments but in fact they are not, especially if they are in the Euro currency zone. They don’t even have control over their individual economies.
I don’t believe that state of affairs can continue much longer. The sovereign debt crisis will just overwhelm the peripheral states.
Bailouts may come and go but in the end it’s just a greater debt mountain and an unbearable burden on future generations.
These countries need to go back to earning their own living with all the consequences which will follow.
Free trade yes, political, economic and social integration impossible. 🙁

[Anonymous]

Triumphalism is not something clever, it didn’t even pass my spell check, so I won’t post Ambrose’s link in today’s Telegraph.

Charlie’s elegant reference to EU politics is spot on, if we assume that those elected to Brussels are worse than our home grown monsters. I happen to think that they are no different, but maintain that a wider check on individual countries occasional follies can only be a good thing, when the voters in smaller states get it wrong.

The current problems on Europe’s periphery surely prove my point. What would happen to countries like Greece and Portugal if the clever people in Brussels didn’t tick them off and prevented them from getting into even more trouble with their dire financial management? Spain would have carried on with their land grab if the EU hadn’t stepped in.

NATO and the EU are meeting today to discuss Libya, and rightly so. Europe, united, is a powerful entity in world affairs, individual European countries before unification would still be squabbling among themselves as they have done for centuries.

The old UKIP argument that we want to trade with Europe but don’t want to be part of it, is plain daft; they wouldn’t want to trade with us and we’d be bankrupt in a heartbeat.

Rumpy does look a bit strange, imagine seeing him and Redwood together? The true stuff of nightmares.

[Anonymous]

Triumphalism is not something clever, it didn’t even pass my spell check, so I won’t post Ambrose’s link in today’s Telegraph.

Charlie’s elegant reference to EU politics is spot on, if we assume that those elected to Brussels are worse than our home grown monsters. I happen to think that they are no different, but maintain that a wider check on individual countries occasional follies can only be a good thing, when the voters in smaller states get it wrong.

The current problems on Europe’s periphery surely prove my point. What would happen to countries like Greece and Portugal if the clever people in Brussels didn’t tick them off and prevented them from getting into even more trouble with their dire financial management? Spain would have carried on with their land grab if the EU hadn’t stepped in.

NATO and the EU are meeting today to discuss Libya, and rightly so. Europe, united, is a powerful entity in world affairs, individual European countries before unification would still be squabbling among themselves as they have done for centuries.

The old UKIP argument that we want to trade with Europe but don’t want to be part of it, is plain daft; they wouldn’t want to trade with us and we’d be bankrupt in a heartbeat.

Rumpy does look a bit strange, imagine seeing him and Redwood together? The true stuff of nightmares.

[Anonymous]

@shakeel wrote:

Whats the difference being ruled by foreignor or not. The system is designed to be ruled. It seams you have problem with foreignors !!!!!!!!!!!.

No Shakeel, I don’t have a problem with foreigners per se. I happen to love living in a foreign country where I count many of the local population as good friends.

My problem is, however, that we’re supposed to be living in a democracy where we vote for who represents us. We didn’t get a vote on this lot.
Catherine Ashton bleating on about democracy to the Middle East takes the hypocracy-award of the year (and she’s never been elected for anything in her life).

@katy wrote:

Why is it astonishing, isn’t that why all the British colonies fought for “home rule”?

Yes 🙄 and good for them….which is why I’m astonished that there are those who are happy to be ruled by decisions of ‘outsiders’.
Quote: The legacy of the British Empire includes many stable democracies, often modeled on the Westminster Parliament. English common law remains the basis of many legal systems throughout the former colonies. unquote

A system increasingly encroached upon in Britain by the lot in Brussels. Ironic.

Logan, totally agree with your above post.

[Anonymous]

@shakeel wrote:

Whats the difference being ruled by foreignor or not. The system is designed to be ruled. It seams you have problem with foreignors !!!!!!!!!!!.

No Shakeel, I don’t have a problem with foreigners per se. I happen to love living in a foreign country where I count many of the local population as good friends.

My problem is, however, that we’re supposed to be living in a democracy where we vote for who represents us. We didn’t get a vote on this lot.
Catherine Ashton bleating on about democracy to the Middle East takes the hypocracy-award of the year (and she’s never been elected for anything in her life).

@katy wrote:

Why is it astonishing, isn’t that why all the British colonies fought for “home rule”?

Yes 🙄 and good for them….which is why I’m astonished that there are those who are happy to be ruled by decisions of ‘outsiders’.
Quote: The legacy of the British Empire includes many stable democracies, often modeled on the Westminster Parliament. English common law remains the basis of many legal systems throughout the former colonies. unquote

A system increasingly encroached upon in Britain by the lot in Brussels. Ironic.

Logan, totally agree with your above post.

[Anonymous]

@Rocker wrote:

What would happen to countries like Greece and Portugal if the clever people in Brussels didn’t tick them off and prevented them from getting into even more trouble with their dire financial management?

Carry on in their own sweet way until push came to shove and then they could devalue their currency. But those clever people in Brussels have Greece and Portugal by the short and curlies called ‘the Euro’.

@Rocker wrote:

Spain would have carried on with their land grab if the EU hadn’t stepped in.

I thought they’re still at it? The last I heard was Spain told the EU not to interfere with their laws. If they’ve stopped, that’s great.

[Anonymous]

@Rocker wrote:

What would happen to countries like Greece and Portugal if the clever people in Brussels didn’t tick them off and prevented them from getting into even more trouble with their dire financial management?

Carry on in their own sweet way until push came to shove and then they could devalue their currency. But those clever people in Brussels have Greece and Portugal by the short and curlies called ‘the Euro’.

@Rocker wrote:

Spain would have carried on with their land grab if the EU hadn’t stepped in.

I thought they’re still at it? The last I heard was Spain told the EU not to interfere with their laws. If they’ve stopped, that’s great.

[Anonymous]

@katy wrote:

Off topic too….EU funding American anti death penalty groups. Our elected members are letting us down 👿

http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/nilegardiner/100078360/the-european-union-gives-millions-in-taxpayers%E2%80%99-money-to-anti-death-penalty-groups-in-america/#

Americans complaining about Europeans interfering in their home affairs! That must be the funniest things I’ve ever read.

And I don’t see anything wrong in Europe trying to educate the Americans about the death penalty, it’s long overdue.

[Anonymous]

@katy wrote:

Off topic too….EU funding American anti death penalty groups. Our elected members are letting us down 👿

http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/nilegardiner/100078360/the-european-union-gives-millions-in-taxpayers%E2%80%99-money-to-anti-death-penalty-groups-in-america/#

Americans complaining about Europeans interfering in their home affairs! That must be the funniest things I’ve ever read.

And I don’t see anything wrong in Europe trying to educate the Americans about the death penalty, it’s long overdue.

[katy]

The funniest thing about it is it cost european taxpayers over £2 million 🙄

[katy]

The funniest thing about it is it cost european taxpayers over £2 million 🙄

[logan]

@Rocker wrote:

The current problems on Europe’s periphery surely prove my point. What would happen to countries like Greece and Portugal if the clever people in Brussels didn’t tick them off and prevented them from getting into even more trouble with their dire financial management?

If these countries could manage their own financial affairs, reduce the value of their currencies, reduce their costly and restrictive labour laws, control their own interest rates, their products would be more competitive in other parts of the world.
Perhaps more relevantly to this forum, Spanish property would be more attractive to none Spanish buyers and would kick start a recovery. The property market in Spain is in the doldrums in part because of an over valued Euro.
During previous recessions the Peseta was devalued against most other currencies making property in Spain cheap.
Another small example is the price of tomatoes. France and Holland are major tomato producers. Before Spain entered the EZ they could not compete with Spanish agricultural products. Tomato farmers in France used to block the roads and destroy Spanish lorries bringing cheap tomatoes into France. Now they don’t need to bother. Tomatoes cost the same everywhere in the EU.
The EU system reduces competitive advantage and makes countries poorer.

[logan]

@Rocker wrote:

The current problems on Europe’s periphery surely prove my point. What would happen to countries like Greece and Portugal if the clever people in Brussels didn’t tick them off and prevented them from getting into even more trouble with their dire financial management?

If these countries could manage their own financial affairs, reduce the value of their currencies, reduce their costly and restrictive labour laws, control their own interest rates, their products would be more competitive in other parts of the world.
Perhaps more relevantly to this forum, Spanish property would be more attractive to none Spanish buyers and would kick start a recovery. The property market in Spain is in the doldrums in part because of an over valued Euro.
During previous recessions the Peseta was devalued against most other currencies making property in Spain cheap.
Another small example is the price of tomatoes. France and Holland are major tomato producers. Before Spain entered the EZ they could not compete with Spanish agricultural products. Tomato farmers in France used to block the roads and destroy Spanish lorries bringing cheap tomatoes into France. Now they don’t need to bother. Tomatoes cost the same everywhere in the EU.
The EU system reduces competitive advantage and makes countries poorer.

[Anonymous]

Logan, I say ketchup to that !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[Anonymous]

Logan, I say ketchup to that !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[peterhun]

@Rocker wrote:

@katy wrote:

Off topic too….EU funding American anti death penalty groups. Our elected members are letting us down 👿

http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/nilegardiner/100078360/the-european-union-gives-millions-in-taxpayers%E2%80%99-money-to-anti-death-penalty-groups-in-america/#

Americans complaining about Europeans interfering in their home affairs! That must be the funniest things I’ve ever read.

And I don’t see anything wrong in Europe trying to educate the Americans about the death penalty, it’s long overdue.

American makes sense when you stop trying to think it as a First World country, its a very rich Third World nation with a backward and deluded mindset and a joke for a democratic system.

[peterhun]

@Rocker wrote:

@katy wrote:

Off topic too….EU funding American anti death penalty groups. Our elected members are letting us down 👿

http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/nilegardiner/100078360/the-european-union-gives-millions-in-taxpayers%E2%80%99-money-to-anti-death-penalty-groups-in-america/#

Americans complaining about Europeans interfering in their home affairs! That must be the funniest things I’ve ever read.

And I don’t see anything wrong in Europe trying to educate the Americans about the death penalty, it’s long overdue.

American makes sense when you stop trying to think it as a First World country, its a very rich Third World nation with a backward and deluded mindset and a joke for a democratic system.

[Anonymous]

I read earlier that the two biggest banks in Spain which don’t hold the official minimum capital requirement of 8% are Barclays and Deutsche Bank, their Spanish arms.

Like Logan, my selfish part yearns for the return of the Peseta and the days when Spanish property was cheap as chips for foreigners. The pesky Euro has stopped all that.

I remember sitting on a Spanish terrace watching fast yachts race by on clear blue water, and my coffee and brandy cost me 100 pesetas, about 30 pence in English money. I had just bought a nearby apartment for the price of a car in the UK.

I’ve just done a strange calculation, that coffee and brandy now costs around ten times as much, and the price of the apartment has also increased tenfold. Never mind fancy economics, the free markets fix the price of things.

[Anonymous]

I read earlier that the two biggest banks in Spain which don’t hold the official minimum capital requirement of 8% are Barclays and Deutsche Bank, their Spanish arms.

Like Logan, my selfish part yearns for the return of the Peseta and the days when Spanish property was cheap as chips for foreigners. The pesky Euro has stopped all that.

I remember sitting on a Spanish terrace watching fast yachts race by on clear blue water, and my coffee and brandy cost me 100 pesetas, about 30 pence in English money. I had just bought a nearby apartment for the price of a car in the UK.

I’ve just done a strange calculation, that coffee and brandy now costs around ten times as much, and the price of the apartment has also increased tenfold. Never mind fancy economics, the free markets fix the price of things.

[katy]

Yes, happy days 😀 And you could sell a house in the UK and with the proceeds buy large villa with pool, a boat, new car and put a largish sum in the bank at 12% interest. I doubt if Spain will ever be cheap again although coming out of the euro would help. I remember when Spain went over to the euro they just added a decimal point to prices. Coffee at 150 pesetas became 1.50 euro!

[katy]

Yes, happy days 😀 And you could sell a house in the UK and with the proceeds buy large villa with pool, a boat, new car and put a largish sum in the bank at 12% interest. I doubt if Spain will ever be cheap again although coming out of the euro would help. I remember when Spain went over to the euro they just added a decimal point to prices. Coffee at 150 pesetas became 1.50 euro!

[logan]

These recollections point to a time when Spain’s economy was competitive and could earn it’s own living. Now it’s stagnating largely thanks to previous cheap/easy credit and currency union.
The only way Spain’s agricultural products can now compete in the global market place is to cut costs, such as employing black migrant labour and increase efficiency. That usually means a lower return on investment. Lower returns on investment means less tax revenue. Club Med countries such as Portugal, Greece and Spain are trapped in a frankenstein system.
The French don’t believe in market competition. The current status quo suits them very nicely thank you and everyone fell for it. 🙁

[logan]

These recollections point to a time when Spain’s economy was competitive and could earn it’s own living. Now it’s stagnating largely thanks to previous cheap/easy credit and currency union.
The only way Spain’s agricultural products can now compete in the global market place is to cut costs, such as employing black migrant labour and increase efficiency. That usually means a lower return on investment. Lower returns on investment means less tax revenue. Club Med countries such as Portugal, Greece and Spain are trapped in a frankenstein system.
The French don’t believe in market competition. The current status quo suits them very nicely thank you and everyone fell for it. 🙁

[Author]

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