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Sorry to go against the tide here but I’ve been looking at buying a property in the Canary’s now for over 12 months now. I personally have not witnessed any crash. Developers still want the original price for properties “no room for negotiation”. Private sellers are refusing to drop the price on properties that have been on the market for some time and estate agents continue to put properties on the market based on the values apportioned to properties that are not selling. I’m not looking to cash in but the fear of a crash has made me wary of dipping my toe into the (warm) water!
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Villan wrote:Sorry to go against the tide here but I’ve been looking at buying a property in the Canary’s now for over 12 months now. I personally have not witnessed any crash. Developers still want the original price for properties “no room for negotiation”. Private sellers are refusing to drop the price on properties that have been on the market for some time and estate agents continue to put properties on the market based on the values apportioned to properties that are not selling. I’m not looking to cash in but the fear of a crash has made me wary of dipping my toe into the (warm) water!
I am also following the Fuerteventura and Tenerife markets (as I know quite well these 2 islands).
In Fuerteventura there were some decreases for the new builds (for example a 3 bedroom villa in Corralejo went down from 320K Euros to 240K Euros). I have also seen the add for a 2 bedroom villa for 125K somewhere on the West Coast.
But it is true, the prices are not decreasing in general yet. They will, no worry about that.
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Im with Railita on that – the islands are different and basically the agents etc are trying to prop up the prices. The same was happening here too – but now reality has hit, finally, and its moving.
I did hear from a pal that a buyer found a 2 bed at 160k with a val of 240k where others were priced at 290k, so they are out there!
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I’d go along with that too. I live in Gibraltar but have been keeping an eye over the past year (as I’m looking to buy in Spain), on prices in the Alcaidesa/Sotogrande/Manillva areas.
I think most private vendors are living in cloud cuckoo land when they’ve had their properties on the market for a year (with no interest) and they’re unwilling to negotiate to any real degree.
For example, I really liked a 4 bed place in Alcaidesa, own pool, which has been on the market for EUR 525k for over a year. The owner is English and wants to move back to the UK, but says he won’t sell for under 500k
Even when I tried pointing out to him that the Euro had strengthened by almost 15% from the first time he put it up for sale, and that therefore in real terms today, selling at EUR 470K would get him the same Sterling as 525k would have got him back then!!I guess it just depends on how desperate vendors are to sell, and if they can afford to wait then I suppose I can see their point, but in general I agree that many are just unrealistic in their asking prices and no matter what the financial climate is, just will not drop their price. There certainly doesn’t seem to be as many bargains as we’re told there should be out here now.
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No there arent but any bargains tend to be passed around the ones in the know. Bank managers are the first to smell the problem when payments are delayed or stopped. Then they may have buyers on their books and negotiate a deal or subrogation. It then goes down to laywers, notaries, their familes friends etc etc etc
Finally it drops to the gen public.
Otherwise, we do get them and they also shift fast – hardly getting onto the website as usually they go by phone call.
Dont worry – realism sinks in when the pockets is hit!
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I have noticed that in certain areas the estate agents operate a cartel. Take Sotogrande for example. Perhaps the same thing is going on in the Canaries?
Provided that the number of agents is small, they can exert some control over the price in the short run. In the long run, without a shadow of a doubt the cartel will fail.
I think that the worse thing that one could possibly do at the moment is rush into a purchase. Things may or may not get worse -one thing is for sure -they will not get better for a least a few years. Being wary / cautious / patient is definately the way ahead at the moment. -
I think that a lot of sellers are just trying to sell without incurring any losses on their original purchase and that it why they won’t drop the price.
You will only find a real bargain if you find a desperate seller everyone else will just sit it out. Unfortunately a desperate seller could be someone who is ill, bereaved, going through a divorce etc which is a shame.
What I don’t understand is how the developers can afford to sit out this crises without negotiating on there prices. Surely they can’t hold out forever.
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BornFree, The developers for Duquesa Village have reduced their prices of around 30-40.000 Euros. This is not good news for people who bought off plan a couple of years ago and are just about to complete. A couple of months ago there were a big group of sales people from ADH at the office at Duquesa being groomed. Hopefully they wont be able to talk and convince people into that this is the best investment opportunity of the century, that they so successfully have done in the past.
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A couple of years ago many were saying Spain (The Costa’s where we Brits buy in droves) was over priced and prices would fall massively. So anyone buying off-plan then should have bought in the knowledge that that was a potential scenario.
Developers/Sales Agents do not set the ‘effective’ price of new off-plan developments, just as owners/Agents don’t set the ‘effective’ price of resale’s, they only set the asking price. All the power is with the buyer…if the buyer does not like the asking price and the seller will not move to a position where the buyer is happy, the buyer can always wait or move on to another deal!
Now is probably not the right time to buy at an E30-40k reduction as I have no doubt that their will be further reductions over time. As I say the power is with the buyer.
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Having bought offplan in Duquesa Village in 2002 and seen the developer increase prices in neighbouring blocks by over 50% during 2003 and 2004 I am not at all surprised by the figures quoted.
Realistically priced apartments are selling and the true gain since 2002 is between 15% and 20% which is all a long term investor would look for.
I am not surprised that the developer has now woken up to reality and with some 45% of the development still unsold has made reductions on his asking prices.
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Hello everyone
This is my first post after lurking for a while, I am an agent, one of the honest types who do not have to have body guards when they go out in public.
I am reading this post with interest because it has touched on two areas close to myself firstly the Canaries, I have just bought an apartment in Gran Canaria after visiting 4 or 5 times in the last eighteen months, most of the established agents there appear to be doing very well with a constant stream of potential buyers in their offices.
I was looking for a property to use for winter breaks when the season and weather drops off here in Spain, my criteria after being in this business for the last decade was a smaller complex with swimming pool with a south to south west orientation with large open terrace and a nice view and walking distance to beach and facilities ( I know I am the last customer anyone agent wants) I eventually found a development that ticked all these boxes and I had a choice of 4 apartments in this smaller development of fifty apartments , I like everyone else expected the owners to all negotiate on the price… 3 out of 5 would not even consider an offer and these were being sold with different agents who I am sure are not working together, I did manage to save myself 3000 euros off the asking price and finally paid the grand sum of 106,000 for a one bedroom apartment, the apartment does need totally refurbishing which is currently being done so I won’t see much change out of 25,000 euros but this in my opinion is still fantastic value when you look at all the so called investors spending 200,000 plus in Cape Verde and Morocco.
The saleswoman who we dealt with sold another 2 properties whilst I was there in December, I went back to complete the first week of January and every time I called into their office they had plenty of customers still looking to buy.
The bottom line is I think the Canaries are fantastic value for money already and didn’t see any sign of a real downturn in this market over the eighteen months that I had been looking to buy and I would be very surprised if this situation was to change.
The second area close to myself is both the state of the housing market and in particular the Duquesa area, which is where I am based at the risk of going against the pack I think Mark is way off mark ( forgive the pun) Spain I believe is not on the edge of any property train wreck.
The market is without question slower but I believe mainly due to the developers over pricing their new build developments and aggressive agents selling ˝investments˝ which makes people look at the market from that point of view.
We stopped selling off plan properties back in 2004 because that is the point in time where buying off plan became more expensive than buying a resale property which completely negated any benefit in buying in such away, of course the big agents and commission driven agents continued to sell off plan because it is so much easier to sell the off plan dream property on very misleading facts and artists impressions than it is traipsing around 10s of resale properties a day finding exactly what it is the customer really wants.
I personally don’t see any real evidence of price dropping where resale properties are concerned, recently completed off plan properties even if you discount them at 20 or 30% are not good value, genuine resale properties in good locations are not going to drop in price and I see that many people are seeing failed investors dropping their badly built 2 bed 2 bath box apartments in poor locations and believe that all properties will drop at the same rate when in fact they are worlds apart.
The developer mentioned by Pablo is Ros y Falcon who has been building good quality properties in this area for a very long time.
They did start to get carried away and increased the prices beyond there worth supposedly to keep the investors happy but have recently looked again at these prices and some properties have had a price drop.
They have also recently dropped the price of some units that they had been holding back for themselves and I assume they must now want to release the equity or maybe they are getting worried by all this scar mongering, these new prices are very realistic and in fact very good value with some 2 bedroom apartments dropping below 200,000 euros.
We ourselves sold two properties in a week at one of these developments and had a further buyer this week who was piped at the post by other buyers because he started negotiating on the already discounted price, this customer originally had a choice of three well priced properties but after putting in silly offers for a few weeks and being repeatedly turned down, he come back to us in a more realistic frame of mind at the beginning of this week however all the three properties he was interested in have now gone.
I must admit that I was surprised that on top of the 2 properties we had already sold the developer sold a further 3 more this week however it does show that if the property is desirable enough and the price is reasonable there are still plenty of people buying.
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@Inez wrote:
Im with Railita on that – the islands are different and basically the agents etc are trying to prop up the prices. The same was happening here too – but now reality has hit, finally, and its moving.
I did hear from a pal that a buyer found a 2 bed at 160k with a val of 240k where others were priced at 290k, so they are out there!
What a load of RUBBISH!
“The agents are trying to prop up the prices….”
WHAT?!Plus, you will ALWAYS find a “2 bed” for X amount which has a value far in excess of the selling price – nothing new there.
And….you will always find “another 2 bed” at double the price – but why no mention of area, quality, facilities etc etc etc.
This is simply making up stories from people who do not live in the Canaries and only have second hand knowledge, which is a very, very dangerous thing. -
I’m with Stewlanz on this one.
Regarding “The agents are trying to prop up the prices….” – since when is it the agent that has the final say on the price. If I want 500K, I want 500K, irrespective of what the salesman says.
Also, to me prices in Lanzarote have never been that far behind mainland in the past, and in many locations, way ahead.
One thing that Lanzarote has as a selling point, is the climate throughout the year, although in recent years, not as good as used to be. -
Duquesa wrote:The saleswoman who we dealt with sold another 2 properties whilst I was there in December, I went back to complete the first week of January and every time I called into their office they had plenty of customers still looking to buy.
The bottom line is I think the Canaries are fantastic value for money already and didn’t see any sign of a real downturn in this market over the eighteen months that I had been looking to buy and I would be very surprised if this situation was to change.
.I am not sure if we are talking about the same Canary Islands…
I have friends in the real estaste business in Fuerteventura and Gran Canaria who keep telling me that there are very few buyers and very stuborn sellers who hold the prices high.
Besides, there is such a glut of cheap rentals that there is really no incentive to buy.
“very good value with some 2 bedroom apartments dropping below 200,000 euros. “
Very good value for the seller of for the buyer?
We just rented a luxury 2 bedroom apt. in Duquesa for 175 Pound/week for the month of May. And there are plenty of such apartments with huge vacancies. Who in their right mind would pay a 1200 Euro mortgages for such apartments??
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@BornFree wrote:
I think that a lot of sellers are just trying to sell without incurring any losses on their original purchase and that it why they won’t drop the price.
I agree completely here, but perhaps some owners should realize that selling at a loss is better than waiting, and selling at a greater loss? I guess the problem is that many people were lied to by agents promising that they would be able to sell at a profit…so the thought of merely breaking even seems very unattractive to them?
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Ralita
[/quote]I have friends in the real estate business in Fuerteventura and Gran Canaria who keep telling me that there are very few buyers and very stuborn sellers who hold the prices high
I can only tell you what my experience was like in Gran Canaria with the agents I dealt with, I am sure some may not be doing the same trade however these agents seemed very busy and in my post I have already stated that the owners are being stubborn and few will negotiate!
[/quote]Besides, there is such a glut of cheap rentals that there is really no incentive to buy.
I bought because I want my own apartment and like the freedom of coming and going when I want knowing that the property is to my taste etc, I am sure many of the other people looking at the time have a similar outlook.
[/quote]We just rented a luxury 2 bedroom apt. in Duquesa for 175 Pound/week for the month of May. And there are plenty of such apartments with huge vacancies. Who in their right mind would pay a 1200 Euro mortgages for such apartments??
There are thousands of properties all along the coast for rental but to compare costs you would need like for like properties It all depend what and where you have rented, however again I think you missed my point the fact you can rent cheaper than buying does not stop people from buying and for 200 euros more than you are paying to rent at a very quiet time of the year you could buy and have the use all year around.
Horses for courses and all that 😆
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If you can read Spanish, this article in today’s El Pais entitled ‘The Spanish Coast switches off’ paints a pretty bleak picture of the market.
http://www.elpais.com/articulo/economia/costa/espanola/apaga/elpepueco/20080201elpepueco_2/Tes
One solution proposed in the article is ram home the message that prices will never fall. Fat chance of that happening in this forum!
I’m working on my annual market report at the moment. If you get my news bulletin you’ll be informed when it’s ready. It doesn’t make for very happy reading.
Mark
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This report is about the new build faceless developments costing upwards of 250,000 euros where the developers are finding that with the departure of the so called investors that the real people left behind are not wanting to touch their developments with a barge pole.
Without any doubt this is causing big problems for the banks, developers, government and any one still trying to sell this type of property
Unfortunately many people are now lumping all property into the same group and predicting the end of the Spanish real estate market.
The above is definitely part of the real estate market here in Spain but it is in no way the be all and end all of it, people are and will always be in the market for a holiday and retirement home here in Spain.
After over a year now of doom and gloom by the media and anti Spain mob out there people continue to buy properties and many who looked at buying last year and didn’t get that bargain are back again this year and looking to see if they can do any better this year but the choice is simple if you want to really knock prices down you will have to look to the failed investors 2 bed 2 bath box with your barge pole or start to be realistic about offers on that nice property you really want.
Bargains are out there but it depends on your definition of a bargain.. 😉
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Duquesa wrote:.
Bargains are out there but it depends on your definition of a bargain.. 😉My definition of a bargain is to buy in the moment the prices are not falling anymore and demand is bigger than supply.
I bought my house in UK because mortgage was bigger than rent.
I might buy an apartment in Spain (or some other warmer country) when the prices come back to their senses. -
Duquesa
Well. Someone that puts a sensible balanced view instead of this blanket vieiwpoint that that every property in Spain in every area will suffer the same fate and are all over priced
As you say over priced crap in poor areas will fall in price and then it will still be cheap crap but at a cheap price(30%+ at least)
There will be some few very good deals from investors that may wish to cash in to get himself out of a problem.
However as you point out those with good properties in good areas will not sell if they have to drop.
Then its a case of buying the rubbish as that will be the value as the seller has had to drop or pay the price for the better property( or the one you want) as the seller refuses to drop the price.
Its basic facts that the market is finding its true value which is no bad thing.Frank 8)
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“As you say over priced crap in poor areas will fall in price” – As will quality property in good areas.
“However as you point out those with good properties in good areas will not sell if they have to drop.” – I assume you believe that the top of the range properties in exclusive areas are all owned by peple who don’t need borrowings?
Thinks you may be in for a shock if that is the case. An acquaintance has dropped price on one such property 400K€ to enable him to sell, as his UK business is starting to suffer and he wishes to reduce borrowings. Remember, all that glitters is not gold. You may think than many have the money to support their lifestyle.“Its basic facts that the market is finding its true value which is no bad thing” – But that is across the board and not just the low end.
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M.G
Not at all.
Perhaps there is so much over priced rubbish that has been built over the last few years and in fact I consider some may never sell at all and end up some sort of social housing.
At the moment if I had one of these and I have not yet completed I think I would simply walk away and admit my error (no one to blame but yerself)
I do feel however that there is a distinct differnce in the better built properties in more desirable areas and most will hold the price in conparison as they say its location.location location.
There will be bargains due to both mine and your observations.
Prices cannot fall 30% if its purchased at the right price in a good area.
Now if you overpaid then perhaps you didnt do your homework to begin with 🙂Frank 8)
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“location.location location” – A common comment by many, especially those not in the property market. In bad time, even location cannot save you. Remenber Bond Org?
“Prices cannot fall 30% if its purchased at the right price in a good area”
This is another dream. First hand evidence can support different and that is as a purchaser. -
m.g
It appears that I have not convinced you 😀
All things being equal now would be the time to be in cash.
Now majority of purchaers in Spain are not and over the last few years are in negative equity(dont like to admit it yet?)
Many will end up with property that is simply useless and be in an over supplied market with limited buyers.
There are some however that did buy at good price in very good locations where future building is stopped and this will be the last to fall and the first to rise
Now this will need to be a medium to long term investment as supply in desirable areas will be a sellers market sooner and a worthwhile hold and thats why it will be effected less than the above.
Your purchasers control of that particular situation will be transfered to the seller.
Simply a case of when the merry go round (as is the financial market) a case of where you are when it stopped as to how you win loose or draw.Dan
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“It appears that I have not convinced you ” – Don’t know what you are trying to convince me of?
The market is bad, but not only for the low priced boxes, but accross the board.“All things being equal now would be the time to be in cash. ” – Agree.
“Now majority of purchaers in Spain are not and over the last few years are in negative equity(dont like to admit it yet?)” – Agreed, but not only in Spain.
“Many will end up with property that is simply useless and be in an over supplied market with limited buyers.” – As historically is always the case in such situations.
“There are some however that did buy at good price in very good locations where future building is stopped and this will be the last to fall and the first to rise” – That is assuming they have sufficient funds to sit out the storm, but remember, many owners of the top end of the market use second homes as collateral for the funding.
“Now this will need to be a medium to long term investment” – So what is different. Other than the “cowboys” who bought of plan to make a quick buck, property has and will always be a medium/long term investment. If you are not geared up for 10/15 years, forget it.
“Your purchasers control of that particular situation will be transfered to the seller. ” – You repeat the obvious. Cycles, trends have always been there, it is what is called business.
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Duquesa, by your name I’m guessing that we don’t live too far apart.
I really do think that the argument that if you buy quality in a good location you will be spared from the downturn is seriously overplayed.
This was the last argument used by the estate agents when they dared pretend that spanish property was still an investment, and while they still refused to admit the severe downturn in the market.It seems to me that the few buyers that there are won’t touch anything overpriced with a bargepole at then moment. They read the papers and know to hold out for lower prices.
Let’s face it, if you wanted to sell your property within the next six months regardless of what area you live in, you would have to ask for a price significantly lower than you did in 2005 & 2003. Now if you wanted to put your property on the market in the one million to one shot that some sun stroked foreigner would pay over the odds for it -that’s a different matter.Take a look at the Majestic Hills development down the road from you. Good location and it appears to be a good quality build. The vast majority are empty and unsold three years on. If you had bought one of those over the last five years and were now forced to sell, you would have lost a considerable sum of money.
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Laggen
I have one property in that very situation that has legal issues and yes if I loose the case I would walk away 😥m.g Stating the obviuos is the only way to avoid you making an argument 🙂
Simply Obviuos 😯 Better properties in good locations will fair better than crap over the longer term 🙂
Frank. 8)
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Hi Forestfire
I am based in Duquesa, If you read my posts I completely agree with your comments that over priced properties will not sell.
Personally though I don’t believe properties are dropping, neither do I believe properties in general have gone up much since the end of 2004.
What I don’t agree with is saying everything is overpriced this is just a lazy statement.
I get phone calls from people every day who bought from the usual crowd after being sold a fail safe investment, they are all looking to off load normally at cost price or even below but due to the locations and size of these units I would not sell these properties today knowing that there are much better properties on the market for my customers.
All the talk of price drops is actually confusing many people who genuinely want to buy, they feel that unless they can drop a price by 30% they are being ripped off which is never going to happen on desirable properties hence many people are wandering around all the agents looking for something that is just not there and every couple of months they are returning to try again some of these are thankfully now seeing the light and buying.
We have never sold any property at Majestic Hills they started off over priced and remains so today and the location is not particularly good in my opinion, the build quality and sizes are very good so I would expect these properties to slowly find buyers.
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Laggen
It would depend totally on the property,which development,area and what I paid.
I do have one that I was not prepared to walk away from as I feel the I bought it for the fair price and over the longer term it will be a fair punt.
There are masses of property that developers have not sold and the simple reason is that the greed factor meant they kept on raising prices when in fact the market had peaked.
There is no doupt that prices in OVERPRICED 😯 developments(Duquesa has pointed to just one) will fall buy whatever is needed to bring them in line with the market.
I.E Two developments next door to each other,same spec,veiws etc
One purchased at 300,000 euros and the other 400,000 euros bought at the same time needless to say that the higher priced one has got further to fall. 😕
There are some developments that I can see dropping by 50% +others that were priced right in good areas maybe 10% from 2003 values.
This one fits all that all property will fall by equal amounts is plain stupid as some will fair better and again, ITS WHAT YOU PAID 😆Frank 8)
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@Duquesa wrote:
Personally though I don’t believe properties are dropping, neither do I believe properties in general have gone up much since the end of 2004.
What I don’t agree with is saying everything is overpriced this is just a lazy statement.
Duquesa, prices are dropping I see it every day. No use denying this. It’s even in the Spanish television. Real estate is cyclical, periods of growth are followed by periods of slowdown, it is natural and it is healthy for the market that it happens.
That property is overpriced in general in Spain by 30% is no lazy statement. It has been said by the Bank of Spain, OECD, FMI and many other international organisms. You can search past threads with the links to such information.
Properties in good locations will hold their own or fall very slightly. The biggest drop will come from the glut of typical 2 bedroom flats on the costas built over the last boom due to a massive oversupply. It will take years for the market to absorb all this property. Prices don’t fall 20 or 30% overnight, it is well understood this will happen steadily over a period of 2-4 years.
Only people who are desperate have had to sell with 30% discounts until now. I think that prices have fallen between 5-15% over the last two years, not to mention the exchange rate Sterling Pound/Euro which would add a further 10% price drop. Prices will rebound but it is foolish to think IMHO that property prices will not fall. That was the same line that some agents preached in the US (“houseprices always go up”) and prices there have fallen by 20% over the last 2 years on average. The last report from Merril Lynch estimates a fall of house prices of more than 10% for 2008 alone in the US. Others are even more pessimistic:
http://www.businessweek.com/magazine/content/08_06/b4070040767516.htm
Do you really think that we in Spain will not undergo the same phenomenon of house price drops ? Of course we will, we are not cleverer than americans. Spain is no different, there has been a real estate bubble and it popped last year (on Tuesday the 24th of April IMO). People shouldn’t panick, it is normal, it has happened before and it will happen again. Prices will rebound eventually in 5 years time or more from now and there will be yet another real estate boom. It is cyclical.
And just one more thing, 18% of Spain’s GDP is accounted for by construction.
In the US the figure is down to 5% of it’s GDP.
The US is ahead of us between 12-18 months into this house slowdown. So if you are interested in the future of Spain’s real estate market you better keep an eye on what is happening at the other side of the puddle. No need for a crystal ball.
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Properties in good locations will hold their own or fall very slightly. The biggest drop will come from the glut of typical 2 bedroom flats built over the last boom due to a massive oversupply. It will take years forthe market to absorb all this property
The exact point I have been making, Thank you Drakan
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@Just Frank wrote:
DITTO
Also agree that its a lazy and flippant statement that all prices will fall by the same percentage.
Frank 8)
Your remark is futile, it is only blatant Frank.
Price drops won’t fall uniformly, some will fall harder of course depending upon many factors: location, value, amenities, golf courses, front-line beach, security etc…
The top end of the market (>800k), which is what I mean by prime location, will hold it’s own very well as it always does. The biggest drop will come from those units of which there is a massive oversupply in the costas (2 bedroom flats) which are ridiculously overpriced.
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I do not agree with the idea that the top end of the market will somehow be unaffected by say a 30% drop in the general price of housing. Without a doubt, the small badly built apartments will be the worst hit but it seems to me that while some members of the forum have finally accepted the downturn in the market, they are pretending that their own property is somehow insulated from the general market.
People become rich over night and at the same time as some lose all their money in a dramatic fashion due to losing their income, ill health, bad investments, and being involved in or affected by crime, to name a few examples. The idea that the “rich” can always weather the storm and hold out for the price that they want is based on the misconception that the “rich” is a static population.
I agree that the US shows a good indication of what we are likely to experience in the near future. It’s not just poor people losing their homes over there -$1m mansions are getting foreclosed as well. While prime property in NY is not in meltdown, there are far fewer sales and no more bidding wars.
The fact that inflation is rising to uncomfortable levels (the official figures aren’t worth the paper they are written on) whilst the absolute prices of houses are falling shows that the value of property has declined far more than many seem willing to admit. -
I have read your opinion before Forestfire. I’m sorry I don´t agree with it.
The above is only my personal opinion (prime locations will hold well) don’t take it as an absolute. I could be mistaken.
Many exclusive villas (> 3 million) are also ridiculously overpriced and their prices will need to come down realistically (value) if they want to sell. However I believe the upper end of the market (>800k – 3 million) will hold well. The reason is because I remember past recessions although before there weren’t so many properties of these characteristics, now they are very abundant in some locations. In any case it all falls down to demand and supply. And there is no short supply of 2 bedroom flats on the costas so these will be the worst hit IMHO. I very much doubt the upper range will fall by an average of 30%, I find that almost impossible unless we find ourselves braced in a new Great Depression ’29 style. In any case in a recession all prices come down whether medium or high-end property. The only difference is that the top range is more resilient whilst the medium range isn’t and due to oversupply in Spain will suffer the most IMHO.
I agree. I believe the true inflation figures are double the official numbers (4.4 for Spain) at the very least. It would seem everything is brewing up for a perfect storm. The whole country is holding its breath until after the national elections are over.
Not all property will fall uniformly, 30% is just an average, some will fall even more some much less. The truth is no one knows yet. But the US market is clearly pointing the direction the Spanish market will be heading over the next years.
Only time will prove who is right Forestfire.
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I am finding this most strange.
“I very much doubt the upper range will fall by an average of 30%” – Why not, you refer to past recessions and in the 80/90s, top of the range properties suffered as much, if not more, than the lower end. Part of the reason being that, as I have previously mentioned, many such properties are owned by business people, who when the market was good for their business, they purchased for a bit of luxury, but when the market turns, the luxuries are first to go voluntarily and if not, Funders would also have input for the disposal of.
So what is different now, do you believe that all or most of the 800K upwards are owned without external funding?“I find that almost impossible unless we find ourselves braced in a new Great Depression ’29 style” – Why go back to the 20s, if you were around and business in the early 90s, you may realise how your observations and comments contradict what actually happened then.
During that era, I had several friends and acquaintances where were considered successful business people and their top of the range properties in UK and overseas dropped more that 30%.
Repeating myself but Bond Corporation mean anything to you? -
MG I know you love controversy but I won’t fall in your game.
In past recessions -at least in southern Spain- prices did not fall by 30% in the upper end of the market as you claim. They fell, but not nearly by that much. Things simply didn’t sell, there was no asset bubble as there is now. I don’t recall anyone saying back in the 90s “we are in a real estate bubble”, do you ? These properties were not grossly overpriced as they are now which is why they did not fall as much. The price was already close to their value unlike now.
There were fewer luxury properties back then not even close as to how many there are now. This market segment was resilient and even before the recession was over this market was the first to move (sell) to affluent Spaniards from the north (Madrid, Basque). The market eventually catched on.
In any case it’s just my opinion. You think otherwise, fair enough.
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“I know you love controversy” – If having an opinion and seeing both sides is considered controversial, I put my hand up.
As you don’t “know” me or anything about me, I am surprised that you can claim “I know you love controversy”. Perhaps it is where you get all your “facts” from?“In past recessions -at least in southern Spain- prices did not fall by 30% in the upper end of the market as you claim.” – Think you replied to your ownn question here, “There were fewer luxury properties back then not even close as to how many there are now”, so therefore, not good comparables are available.
“I don’t recall anyone saying back in the 90s we are in a real estate bubble” – no because in the 90s there was little jargon an buzz words.
Come to think of it, never hear people in the property market use such a phrase now, only those in sales, which isn’t really the property market, otherwise, we could listen to what the double glazing sales person says.
Property works in cycles historically, and not bubbles. -
@mg wrote:
“I know you love controversy” – If having an opinion and seeing both sides is considered controversial, I put my hand up.
As you don’t “know” me or anything about me, I am surprised that you can claim “I know you love controversy”. Perhaps it is where you get all your “facts” from?I don’t know you any more than you know me MG. What I do know is that you systematically adopt a contrarian view on all topics since you joined us. Your posts are all the fact I need to sustain my opinion on your love for controversy. Opinion shared by many incidentally.
@mg wrote:
“In past recessions -at least in southern Spain- prices did not fall by 30% in the upper end of the market as you claim.” – Think you replied to your ownn question here, “There were fewer luxury properties back then not even close as to how many there are now”, so therefore, not good comparables are available.
Good point, I agree it is difficult to compare. Which is why I have written that it is only my personal opinion and that I could be mistaken. My words are not to be taken as “fact”. When I post a fact I make it very clear.
@mg wrote:
“I don’t recall anyone saying back in the 90s we are in a real estate bubble” – no because in the 90s there was little jargon an buzz words.
Come to think of it, never hear people in the property market use such a phrase now, only those in sales, which isn’t really the property market, otherwise, we could listen to what the double glazing sales person says.
Property works in cycles historically, and not bubbles.I have repeated ad nauseam that the property market is cyclical, so exactly where you are getting at by repeating what I have been posting for years beats me.
Many countries have had a real estate bubble brewing. It has popped in the US and we in Spain are sure to follow. I suspect Ireland and many other countries will join us as well. This “bubble” jargon is in the daily press, at least the Spanish one. In the 90s we also had jargon and buzz words … 🙄
Are you implying I am a salesperson ? Errm no, sorry to disappoint you. 😆
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” What I do know is that you systematically adopt a contrarian view on all topics since you joined us” – Obviously, you did not understand my first response: If having an opinion and seeing both sides is considered controversial, I put my hand up.
“Your posts are all the fact I need to sustain my opinion on your love for controversy. Opinion shared by many incidentally.” – So please can you explain why I have receive so many PMs all appreciating my opinion and seeing both sides, as opposed to being “blinkered”. Not my words, but a fellow contributor here.
“Many countries have had a real estate bubble brewing” – Yup, modern day jargon from the media, who know no better and do not know the “industry”.
“It has popped in the US” – Most certainly media jargon there, what else would one expect?
“Are you implying I am a salesperson” – Just looked at my posting and can’t see where I said or implied that. It was aimed at those who don’t know better.
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Hi
I’m finding this hard to understand although i guess it’s only really of interest if you are buying or selling. If like us are just happy to enjoy your holiday home then surely it doesn’t really matter. In order for a price drop there needs to be owners wanting to sell and even then there needs to be people who are willing to buy. I for one don’t see for sale signs going up everywhere in fact EAs are going out of business either due to lack of something to sell or lack of buyers, maybe both. All the advice on this board is don’t touch Spain with a bargepole, in fact the message is don’t touch it with someone else’s bargepole let alone yours.
The mess in the USA is primarily caused by people buying what they could not afford when the sub prime rates went up, and are now in negative equity, are we saying this is the case in Spain (remember rates are coming down)? While some owners may be in a holiday home worth less than they paid (i only read less than bank valuations so far) again why should they care unless this is never going to change. The word on this board is that it’s cyclical and history would suggest that this is the case. In any case a property is only worth what someone will pay, in other words no buyers the value is zero.
I don’t think Europeans are poor in fact I think many Europeans are sat on their money because they don’t know what to do with it. Pensions are poor, the stock markets are up and down like the proverbial, banks are not to be trusted and now property is on the slide, oh and by the way we are about to go into recession. The reading most people will take from that is stay liquid and take no risks with your hard earned cash.
I feel we read to much into the scaremongering in the news papers, which if we all read it enough the prophesies of doom will come true.
It also seems that those on the board that want to buy need the price to come down by 30% and those that own property would not sell at that price, so stalemate.
Regards
Paul, a happy owner on the Costa del Sol.
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Hello Drakan, clearly we do not share the same opinion of the top end of the market, and as you say -only time will prove who is right.
I don’t really understand the logic behind your opinion, because I believe that wealth is as often transient as it is long lived. Can you make a more substantial argument to disuade me from thinking that the windows to your 800 -3000000 Euro villa have rose tinted glass? -
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I am leaning towards a crash but unlike many I am not sure, I also take what I read in the newspapers with a pinch of salt. Prefer to see what is happening on ground zero.
Many use the USA as an example but they always seem to have a quicker recovery than any other country. Property in Florida is taking 3 months to sell, compared to Spain’s 2 years or more it makes the market there look hunky dory! Orlando could be taking a hit, overbuilding in unsuitable locations, lots of off-plan investors could be a different story.
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If you check http://www.propertysnake.co.uk there are over 92000 listed properties and growing weekly that have been reduced, some by as much as 40%, if you type in a post code you can check areas of interest.
Apparently, a huge amount of investors´ buy to let properties will come on the market in April as well to take advantage of the new 18% Cap. Gains tax Band.
Many Financial experts see this as the beginning of a serious slump even in the UK despite the old chestnut always being used of More Buyers than Supply.
This, plus a very poor exchange rate will further hurt Spain´s property market as Brits won´t be buying, apart from all the other bad Press from Spain.
The Global Crunch appears to be spreading fast.
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Katy, while many countries may be hit by similar problems, it does seem that the USA recovers quicker. I think that this is because America is a modern developed capitalist economy. While Spain might appear to be one too, the way that business operates at times is anything but. For example, if you overvalued your property by 100k, an american realtor wouldn’t be interested in listing your property because they are only interested in earning their commissions.
America might be reeling from the blows at the moment, but the property market is still functioning. It has not ground to a halt like it has here. People over there understand the value of property -that prices go down as well as up, and that if the price of their property has decreased, so has the price of their prospective home.
The americans might be as money grasping as the people on the CDS, but they compete to offer you a product, not rip you off like is so often the case here. Their law deters white collar crime -here it is accepted at the highest levels of society.
I could go on and on, my point is that while America may take a few years to emerge from their economic problems, God knows how long it will take Spain to. -
“Apparently, a huge amount of investors´ buy to let properties will come on the market in April as well to take advantage of the new 18% Cap. Gains tax Band. ” – and in additon, one thing that is making landlords of commercial premises tremble, is the empty rates that comes into force April 1.
Many “investors” of buy to let houses saw it as a natural progression to get into the commercial property market, where covenants play as big a part as yield. But, it can be a hard lesson when something like this comes into being. -
I think the only places in Europe where property prices will fall significantly is where there is an oversupply and once that problem is no longer there prices will start to rise again. Land prices all over Europe in the last two or three years have at least doubled so the price of plots are not going to come down(remember the cost of the plot is a least half the cost of the property) and the only way new builds will not increase is by inferior workmanship and goods. So yes I think there will be a readjustment in certain areas for a time and then who knows what could happen. Inflation!!! Higher wages!!! Does it all start over again?
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jwc wrote:Land prices all over Europe in the last two or three years have at least doubled so the price of plots are not going to come down(remember the cost of the plot is a least half the cost of the property)
Who told you they are not coming down??
In Florida land prices in 2008 are in some places 1/5 to 1/4 of their 2005 prices (a 75% reduction).
Same in Arizona, California, Colorado in 2008.I am even following some Spanish sites with land prices and they have come down by 20% in the last 3 months.
So yes, the price of plots DO come down and comes down hard.
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forestfire wrote:Katy, while many countries may be hit by similar problems, it does seem that the USA recovers quicker.
There is no recovery in USA yet.
It is true that some places in Florida have hit the bottom. Bottom meaning $5000 for a buildable plot of land or $80000 for a brand new 3 bedroom/3 bed house.
But California has a long way to go and many states like Utah, Idaho have just started their fall.
Expect the USA market to fall till 2010-2011.
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Effective prices in Florida (even/especially for top of the range properties in the most desirable areas) are down between 20 to 30% of their 3rd quarter 2005 peak prices lots of properties available at -50%. How much further will they go???? (as stated many other areas of the US are just at the beginning of the drop).
Land prices not falling in Europe??? I’m not sure about that. Ireland, Spain France etc. Forget over supply suppressing prices, it’s just as likely to be an undersupply of buyers (there are two sides to supply and demand) that drives land and property prices lower.
When land and labour prices fall new build can be reduced in price. Alternatively when builders/developers) get in trouble (which many at all levels are now in the Uk/Spain) then some properties will be sold close to, at or below cost just to produce cash flow/service borrowings. That’s the way it works.
Don’t forget something like 70% of purchasers in the UK boom of the last 7 years or so are discretionary. Discretionary buyers disappear in a falling market; thereby falling prices (like rising ones in a boom) become self fulfilling. Anybody who seriously thinks that property prices in the UK won’t fall due to demand continually outstripping supply is naïve and doesn’t understand the game.
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Paul800
I can but help notice that some of the posters will not be happy until there is a property slump.
Seems almost aways comes from those that dont have any property interest in Spain.
Thousands are not completing as they had no intention in the first place./ Then those that realised they paid over the top and last simply because they cant and look to the forums for support and answers on how to get out of the contract.
Get the overpriced unsold developments out of the way, this is where we will hear of the biggest price drops, then there may be a market value of property from where we can predict price levels and forcasts.
Like you I am not looking at the property as just a financial item and apart from cash right now there is not much to have your money invested and may just as well enjoy it(not much choice really ) 😆Frank 8)
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katy wrote:Ralita could you provide any link to these properties in Florida with the large reductions, especialy the 3 bedroomed houses at 80,000?
I went to the website internest.com
You can find builders which would build a £70000 house on a $10000 lot of land which you can find plenty.
Or in Okeechobee for $88K for 3 bedroom house.
There are plenty of houses around $100K. They do not include the incentives you can negociate with the builder.
Now, would one want to buy in Florida with the hurricane threat, high taxes and insurance? I am not sure.
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2 quick points:
Ralita, I agree -there are no signs of recovery in the US yet and I think it is a reasonable guess that their property market is a couple of years from turning round yet.
jwc I think that your statement is wrong
“Land prices all over Europe in the last two or three years have at least doubled”
The spanish market peaked in 2003 and has been falling ever since, a great deal further than most acknowledge since inflation is not as low as the government stats pretend it is. You say prices have doubled when my experience in the CDS tells me that they have actually fallen. -
@Just Frank wrote:
Thousands are not completing as they had no intention in the first place./ Then those that realised they paid over the top and last simply because they cant and look to the forums for support and answers on how to get out of the contract.
Hi Frank – you forgot a fourth and important category of those not completing. They are those who simply do not feel comfortable with completing on an illegal property. And until a LFO is issued, that is what a property is. Recent news re. demolitions have no doubt compounded these feelings.
I appreciate there are some who take the ‘win a few, lose a few’ attitude, but there are those in the Autumn years of their life or with their total life savings who simply wanted a worry-free holiday or permanent or retirement place, and completing on something that is illegal is just not an option they want to take. And indeed, if that is their decision – why should they.
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@forestfire wrote:
Hello Drakan, clearly we do not share the same opinion of the top end of the market, and as you say -only time will prove who is right.
I don’t really understand the logic behind your opinion, because I believe that wealth is as often transient as it is long lived. Can you make a more substantial argument to disuade me from thinking that the windows to your 800 -3000000 Euro villa have rose tinted glass?No I’m sorry Forestfire, I cannot substantiate it as much as I’d love to (facts as MG would say) because it is only my personal opinion which must be taken with a pinch of salt.
Mind you, I’ll add a nuance to it, I only hold this opinion if the recession is mild. Because if it is severe then no property will be spared of a significant fall in prices regardless of whether they are prime location or not. The Authorities are all downplaying it, we’ll see.
But in a mild recession I would reasonably expect prime property to hold well and not fall by much or at least not by that much in comparison with the oversupply of 2 bedroom flats. It might be my tainted rose glasses however as Katy points out. I base this on the last recession, but as MG rightly pointed out, there weren’t so many luxury properties back then as there are now, so who knows ? That is why it is very difficult to compare with the past to draw conclusions for the future. Please don’t take my opinion on this matter as an absolute, I could very well be mistaken.
Only time will tell.
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Hi Charlie 😆
Your correct 😉 Yep, these are the most important and should never be forgotten in this mess. 😈
I do feel that there are some that are not in this group but pretend they are 😯
Agree totally that the legals identity of property is a disgrace and no one should complete without it all being in place,however there appears no plan B. 😕 Other than to walk away.
On the issue of the Priors I feel that this will do more harm to the Spanish Market as even with these legal papers its appears that its not worth the paper its written on so what is a LEGAL property in Spain. 😥
When people get the legal papers will they trust them and complete 😕More and more cases are going in favour of the developers and the banks as lets face it how else can this be sorted 😈
Are they going to be honest, upfront as this would be financial suicide and the courts know this as well so little help there I fear.
There was only ever going to be one outcome 😈Frank 8)
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jwc I think that your statement is wrong
“Land prices all over Europe in the last two or three years have at least doubled”I can assure you that certainly in northern Europe land prices have risen by what I said and indeed are still rising. I am not talking about small parcels of land this is agricultural land which is now being bought up by investors and not farmers, and I have never known land in the UK to reduce in value over a period, they cannot make any more of it! and demand has always outstripped supply.
As for the USA comparison that is not comparing like with like, the USA has an abundance of land therefor it will fluctuate much more -
Just going back to my original comment. The vast majority of the posts and advice on this site is mainland biased and I understand why. You all seem knowledgable with property prices and trends. What do you guys recommend I do as someone who is looking to buy in the Canaries ? As someone with a young family and is not expecting to rent it out that often I’m obviously shopping at the cheaper end of the market. I promise not to sue if it all goes breasts up!
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Land in london the South East South West, East and West Midlands fell hugely between 1990 and 1995. You could buy building plots in some of the most desirable areas of the London and the South Coast (Sandbanks) for example for 50% below their previous peaks!
Never say never as the current boom that is now at an end is much bigger than the last one, why won’t it happen again?
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Villan wrote:trends. What do you guys recommend I do as someone who is looking to buy in the Canaries ? As someone with a young family and is not expecting to rent it out that often I’m obviously shopping at the cheaper end of the market. I promise not to sue if it all goes breasts up!
I acknowledge to be biased towards Fuerteventura which is a place where I would really love to live. In what concerns Fuerteventura, there will a huge supply of properties as they are building everywhere. So I would advise you to wait till 2011-2012 when the building mania would kind of slow down.
I would not buy in Tenerife as it is too cloudy, even though I love hiking on the Teide mountain. I do not know Gran Canaria or Lanzarote.
How much are you willing to spend?
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jwc wrote:I can assure you that certainly in northern Europe land prices have risen by what I said and indeed are still rising. I am not talking about small parcels of land this is agricultural land which is now being bought up by investors and not farmers, and I have never known land in the UK to reduce in value over a period, they cannot make any more of it! and demand has always outstripped supply.
As for the USA comparison that is not comparing like with like, the USA has an abundance of land therefor it will fluctuate much moreDo you see Spain as having a lack of land? What about France, Italy or Germany?
This song with “buy land, they cannot make any more of it” has been overplayed during the property boom everywhere around the world…
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Just going back to my original comment. The vast majority of the posts and advice on this site is mainland biased and I understand why. You all seem knowledgable with property prices and trends. What do you guys recommend I do as someone who is looking to buy in the Canaries ? As someone with a young family and is not expecting to rent it out that often I’m obviously shopping at the cheaper end of the market. I promise not to sue if it all goes breasts up!
Hi Villan
If you wait until everyone here agrees that the market is not going to go any lower you will never have your holiday home, most the people on this forum are letting off steam and are generally looking from a negative perspective and I believe reading too much into statistics and figures, again I am sure lots of people will disagree with me but Spain cannot be compared to America or Japan or anywhere else for that matter people buying in Spain and the Canaries are normally buying an holiday home for themselves and their family and as such it is not an investment per say and the fact a 100,000 euro property in Gran Canaria may go up or down by 5000 euros should not make any difference if you are buying for the above reasons, and history speaks for itself if you buy today and sell on in 10 or 15 years time the property will be worth more than it is today.
Like I said in my original post I have recently bought in the Canaries for similar reasons to yourself and this was after a year of looking and seeing for myself that prices were not going down, I found a property that matched my criteria, of course I put in offers to see what could be saved but I was realistic about what and why I was buying and I am now very happy with my purchase and looking forward to going back in 3 weeks time.
Prices will go up, prices will go down and the clock keeps ticking, my opinion for what its worth is life’s too short. 🙄
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I have visted Lanzarote, Tenerife and Gran Canaria many, many, many times.
Tenerife, finsihed going there quite a few years ago when developers started to rape the Island, much the sam as has been done to mainland now.
G.C. some really nice areas away from the resorts.
Lanzarote, was superb, particulary south, then the cranes moved in.“property prices” – one good selling point for Canaries, as anyone who visits will know, is the fairly good all year climate, which is far superior to mainland. Personally, I think this is why the prices did seem higher.
What does make it a little unattractive to many, is the flight time and flight costs.
To GC, also the frequency of flights from some parts.“as someone who is looking to buy in the Canaries” – If you can afford it, are not looking to make money from renting or capital growth, and purely for you own enjoyment. Buy it.
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Out of curiosity I was looking at prices of villas in the Arboleas area of Almeria yesterday and was not surprised to see that prices seem to be tumbling there. There are some resales, 3 bedroom/2 bathroom villas with pool that are in the region of 180,000 euros. When I was looking to buy in that area this time last year such properties were being advertised at levels above 220,000 euros.
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Land in Arboleas became very expensive in 2006/2007 because it was the only area that legal property could be built. Land that was under the Albox municipality was all frozen for planning and build licenses.
Several of the Arboleas major local builders had probably on 200 or so poligono´s to build on and consequently it became prime property.
In mid 2006, I was selling New build 3 bed 2 bath detached properties 6-800m2 plots) for 145,000 euro´s. After 2 sudden price hikes they went up to over 200,000 euro´s. I decided they were overpriced and pulled out of the area.
Albox/Arboleas is too far from airports, beaches and a decent major city to command anything over 170,000 euro´s for a 3/2 detached.
It was possible to then buy something similar on the Murcia coastline for 180,000 with beaches and airports more conveniently placed, and two very nice cities nearby.
Hopefully, the market decline will put Albox/Arboleas property prices back to a more realistic level.
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