- This topic has 26 replies, 14 voices, and was last updated 17 years, 11 months ago by
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First sentence from Mark Stucklin’s article ‘Don’t panic-the Spanish property market is not in meltdown’.
Despite all the obvious pointers that are often mentioned, I’m afraid such phrasing would induce me to run for cover. As with so many pundits whether on Stocks, Currencies, Property etc, when someone says something as definite as that, it’s time to do the opposite. When they say ‘buy’ then to ‘sell’ is often the best option etc.
Then in the same S.Times, Money section, Charles Dumas, chief economist at Lombard Street Research said, ‘The country (Spain) is over-housed, people are overindebted and the construction industry continues to churn out homes. The Housing Market in Spain is about to Implode’.
‘People who were already thinking of selling are advised to get out now before big price falls’
Who really knows, I for one think the economists are more likely to be right than those in the property market, whether in the UK or Spain? For Mark’s sake, I hope his view doesn’t come back to bite him on the botty.
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http://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/main.jhtml?xml=/money/2007/04/29/ccliam29.xml&page=1
the whole picture still seems very unclear, guess onlt time will tell
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56% of the businesses in Marbella are real estate agents.
Experts are predicting ‘a return to reality’
May 18 (Typically Spanish website)
“Despite the on-going Malaya corruption case there is a business related to real estate for every 8 adults living in the town – and that’s double the national average.
Experts have been saying for some time that the sector is slowing down, but the general opinion is it will be a return to reality rather than a bursting bubble.
The numbers come in a report drawn up by Axesor which studied a random 10,000 companies in the municipal registry.
Axesor director, José Manuel Marín, told the Opinion de Málaga newspaper that the city was at the centre of the previous real estate boom, and the businesses are a consequence of that”.It will be interesting to see if this optimism prevails. Maybe the REA’s will enjoy a boom time selling “distressed sales”.
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charlie, I think the bubble has well and truly burst on Spain’s Costas despite what some say. Katy, Spain’s Gov’t are primarily responsible for their property corruption by not weeding out the crooks years ago, they’ve shot themselves in their feet and greedy pockets, and because lying is an art in their property world, their Govt’s figures are going to be massaged big time.
Serves them right.
Spain is tooooo expensive for property now on the Coasts and a bit of a rip-off economy now hitting those who’ve bought there.
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I would be the first to report that Spanish property prices were plunging across the board…… if it were true. But it’s not as simple as that. As things stand, prices are falling in some areas, say 10-30%, stagnant in others, and rising in the rest. Yes, in some areas, like the Costa Brava and Mallorca, prices do still appear to be rising, though for how much longer is anyone’s guess.
What will happen in future? Let me say, once again, that I think there is a fair chance of a construction-lead recession in Spain, which could drive down prices across the board. In this scenario, quality property with international appeal (i.e. diversified demand) should suffer the least, but maybe not. Right now the economy is galloping along with 4% growth, so I feel a bit silly talking about a recession. And I’ve been warning of a downturn for a couple of years now, and although I’ve been partially right – in some ares the market is very quiet and prices falling – I’ve been wrong about the big picture.
I agree that Spain has made / is making some big mistakes when it comes to urban planning. In many respects I think the Spanish model is totally wrong. Also, an increasing number of foreign buyers have had a bad experience here, and have been treated appallingly. But, as is being discussed now in another thread, British interest in Spanish property is always there, whatever the bad news. The dream is just too strong, however much your personal experiences might call it into question. Because for the time being at least, if you get the purchase right, you can still enjoy a wonderful quality of life in Spain, which is why the dream is still out there. And many people seem very keen to get out of the UK.
I had a good discussion of all these topics yesterday with Martin Dell of Kyero.com, Wynn Williamson of Aguirre Newman, and Adam Samuel of Nubricks.com. It will be made available in the form of a podcast shortly at nubricks.com. I’ll post the link here when it’s ready.
And by the way, there is no contradiction between my article in the ST and Charles Dumas, quoted in the money section. He may turn out to be right, but for the time being I can safely say the market hasn’t imploded.
Mark
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We’ve all got our viewpoints Mark, and personally I go along with the ‘Implosion’ one especially on the Costas which is where most Brits seem to head for. I doubt Spain’s figures too on property growth for reasons already mentioned.
Yes, good property in the right location will always sell, trouble is, there is far more of the dross on the market which won’t sell, and not everyone can afford the good property which is still probably overpriced, and you still can’t ignore the scenically total destruction of great stretches of Coast with mass overbuild.
Don’t forget recent figures by several Banks and forecasters that Spanish property is 30% OVERPRICED currently in many areas.
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@mark wrote:
British interest in Spanish property is always there, whatever the bad news. The dream is just too strong, however much your personal experiences might call it into question.
A couple that go in my local were talking of an apartment they had seen in Majorca, their eyes glazed over as they told me of their dream of selling their house in the UK to retire there. I told them of my experiences in Spain and I mentioned some of the things I had learn here (thankyou everyone). They have another six years before they retire and I think that dream keeps them going!
Of course I told them that they were signing up to a life of misery and financial penury but would they listen 🙄
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@charlie wrote:
Oh oh Mike…..I feel a ‘ralita’ moment coming……….wait for it……………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………… 🙁
😉 I’m glad it wasn’t taken seriously, Charlie.
I do feel for people who were chasing a dream and who were ripped off, my negativity towards the Spanish property market is that this kind of behaviour is simply not sustainable because a healthy market needs some trust to attract new buyers. In fact it reminds me of the timeshare fraud of the 80s.
But my original point was to agree with Mark, there will always be people interested in Spain but perhaps not at these prices at this time, I just got a bit waylaid when I spotted the opportunity for humour. Apologies.
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Luckily Mike and charlie, because of our experiences and passing on knowledge, we have saved many people from experiencing very bad dreams buying in Spain, in fact nightmares.
I don’t share Mark’s slightly rosy view because I think it’s more balanced now by those chasing the dream and those who’ve woken up and warned others.
Meanwhile the lazy, rather suspect Spanish Gov’t does little or nothing (apart from posturing) to clean their act up and restore confidence in what is a falling market, (it’s obvious).
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http://property.timesonline.co.uk/tol/life_and_style/property/overseas/article1834768.ece
a more balanced view perhaps?
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@mark wrote:
Right now the economy is galloping along with 4% growth, so I feel a bit silly talking about a recession. And I’ve been warning of a downturn for a couple of years now, and although I’ve been partially right – in some ares the market is very quiet and prices falling – I’ve been wrong about the big picture.
Mark
It really does surprise me how some of us have to publicly apologise it seems for questioning the general media trend (the lemming’s behaviour property pattern): España va bien, don’t worry.
Spain has very dark financial clouds looming on:
http://www.oroyfinanzas.com/modules.php?name=News&file=article&sid=1528
Excerpt:
The Banco de España refused to comment on the -gold- sales, or why they have pursued the policy of using up savings when they could have used other means.
It appears the bank has been draining the reserves to help finance the current account deficit, which has ballooned to 9.5% of GDP, reaching €8.6bn in January alone. It appears that the current account is completely out of control. Spain has the worst deficit in its history and worse than any other country in the western world. Should Spain face any form of banking crisis, Spain will find the situation nearly impossible to handle. For instance, should a housing slump occur, a banking crisis is likely to follow. The first signs of a housing slump are emerging as the E.C.B. raises interest rates already up seven times to 3.75% since December 2005. The shares of Valencia builder Astroc have fallen 77% since February, setting off a sharp slide across the sector, with knock-on effects on banks with mortgage exposure.
Prices are not falling in Spain by 30% -still- (except desperate sellers who are pressed to sell on) more like 3-5% region. This is only the beginning, we still have not entered a fully fledged property-led recession. Just give it some time… it’s not as if we are going to see property price drops of 80%. Probably house prices will deflate at a 20-30% in total along 3-4 years. I really don’t think it’s that much of a price drop when they have gone up 300% over the last decade. Obviously if you bought at the peak (2004 onwards) then probably you will end up with negative equity (I’m thinking off-plan). People should not panick albeit nor should they deny the facts. Clearly the market has changed within the last two-three years for a downturn.
Nobody questions Spain’s quality of life, it is just superb.
There are quite a few people still buying resales rather than off-plan. There are very attractive discounts on prices available for resales so it isn’t as if the market was dead. Everyday properties are bought and sold in Spain, only not as many as before because the speculative investors (flippers) have pulled out and gone elsewhere (Bulgaria, Turkey, Morrocco, Dominican Republic….).
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Drakan, what is the legal view regarding the Spanish Gov’t having to repay all the Stamp Duties, Property Taxes and VAT etc on both the illegal builds if they have to be demolished, and, all the Land Grab properties that the Gov’t must be aware of?
Can a Gov’t take these taxes in the 1st place, and can they pretend they ‘know nothing’, also will the EU get involved?
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Talking of contradictions in newspapers, today it’s even going on in the UK!
Daily Express – House Prices Still Soaring
http://www.express.co.uk/posts/view/8411Dail Mail – Is the House Price Boom Over?
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/pages/live/articles/news/news.html?in_article_id=458848&in_page_id=1770Both know news about property sells newspapers….
Maybe the optimists will buy the Express, the pessimists will buy the Mail! -
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charlie wrote:Talking of contradictions in newspapers, today it’s even going on in the UK!
Daily Express – House Prices Still Soaring
http://www.express.co.uk/posts/view/8411Dail Mail – Is the House Price Boom Over?
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/pages/live/articles/news/news.html?in_article_id=458848&in_page_id=1770Both know news about property sells newspapers….
Maybe the optimists will buy the Express, the pessimists will buy the Mail!WOW, are you degrading yourself by reading these pieces of junk?
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@Paul wrote:
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Drakan, what is the legal view regarding the Spanish Gov’t having to repay all the Stamp Duties, Property Taxes and VAT etc on both the illegal builds if they have to be demolished, and, all the Land Grab properties that the Gov’t must be aware of?
Can a Gov’t take these taxes in the 1st place, and can they pretend they ‘know nothing’, also will the EU get involved?
There is no official view Paul, because the vast majority will be legalised as I have already posted many times. Perhaps the odd 2-3 worst offenders will be pulled down in each province just to make a headline saying they are “facing” corruption, that’ll be all. Another matter being rustic properties.
People should stop panicking, their -illegal- spanish houses in 99% of cases will not be pulled down as politicians cannot afford to take up the responsibility nor do we have the money to offer compensation to innocent third parties (foreign purchasers in good faith) because it would be prohibitively expensive to us.
The British press tend to blow this matter completely out of proportion.
How many illegal houses have been demolished up until now throughout Spain ? None. 😉
Ralita: I don’t like your opinions on us latins being all crooks, this is tantamount to racism. These kind of comments are not taken lightly nor are they forgotten. We are all entitled to our own opinions providing we keep the forum civilized and don’t turn it into a battleground.
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Drakan wrote:Paul wrote:❓
Ralita: I don’t like your opinions on us latins being all crooks, this is tantamount to racism. These kind of comments are not taken lightly nor are they forgotten. We are all entitled to our own opinions providing we keep the forum civilized and don’t turn it into a battleground.
Drakan, I lived many years in Italy, California, Florida, Romania and France so I know the Latin people quite well. I am not saying that all are crooks but many are and so one should do business with them very carefully.
Unfortunatekly the builders and Estate Agents in Spain might be 90%
crooks, especially when dealing with foreigners.I appreciate British people (inside UK) and Germans for their honesty.
But there is a huge contrast of faith between buyers (British) and sellers (Spanish) and this creates all the problems. -
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Drakan
so sorry to see you have been subjected to this racial abuse. I’m sure most of us feel the sharks are the same the world over, it’s just that Spain seems to encourage them by allowing so many of them to get away with daylight robbery that makes no sense to us in the UK. Hopefully the tide is turning?
Thanks again for all your very valuble contributions. You are very much needed on this site as a voice of truth and reason. We need more of your sort in the Spanish courts!
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Thanks Drakan for your answer. I agree with you that most illegal builds will be legalised for obvious financial reasons for Spain but I am surprised that taxes were taken on these and the land grabs in the first case, unless the Gov’t was unaware of specific cases.
I wonder how many other countries ’emerging’ markets or otherwise have similar problems with illegal builds or Land Grab?
Don’t know who Ralita is but IT should lay off Claire and others who offer good advice here through experience, not ‘hysterics’ at all.
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