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There’s been recent media talk of several Eurozone countries who would like to devalue if they were’nt in the Euro, namely Portugal, Italy, Greece and Spain collectively known as PIGS, not very flattering though.
Much talk about Greece possibly opting out although I think unlikely.
If they did, and say Spain followed one day they would revert to the Peseta and possibly devalue so as to boost investment in tourism etc as Greece would do also.
What do you think, is this remotely possible and could this impact on asset prices if it happened? Could Eurozone allow this? 🙄
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@angie wrote:
If they did, and say Spain followed one day they would revert to the Peseta and possibly devalue so as to boost investment in tourism etc as Greece would do also.
What do you think, is this remotely possible and could this impact on asset prices if it happened? Could Eurozone allow this? 🙄
Everybody would like to devalue currencies…
I am quite sure that, if Spain goes out of Euro, the Spaniards would still sell their houses in Euros as peseta would probably be worth nada.
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Found this a while back
Interesting read
http://www.voxeu.com/index.php?q=node/729 -
@Fuengi wrote:
Found this a while back
Interesting read
http://www.voxeu.com/index.php?q=node/729Yep, that’s a heck of an interesting read, I was about to say it just isn’t going to happen that Spain would leave the Euro, and this just kills any notion of that happening stone dead and in very clear terms.
The fact that Spain, Greece, Ireland the PIGS can’t as of old just devalue to bring back investment, increase exports and tourism et al is a huge problem for them, they are now trapped and there is no way back.
Looks like they are simply states within the United States of Europe.
I had always wanted the UK to go into the Euro, but perhaps I was plain wrong and it just wasn’t the right thing to do hey?
Or maybe the Euro would have been a lot healthier if the UK, Denmark and Sweden had been required to adopt it, and we would have had a stong united currency?
Which one of those is the right answer?
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@Chris McCarthy wrote:
Yep, that’s a heck of an interesting read, I was about to say it just isn’t going to happen that Spain would leave the Euro, and this just kills any notion of that happening stone dead and in very clear terms.
The fact that Spain, Greece, Ireland the PIGS can’t as of old just devalue to bring back investment, increase exports and tourism et al is a huge problem for them, they are now trapped and there is no way back.
Looks like they are simply states within the United States of Europe.
I had always wanted the UK to go into the Euro, but perhaps I was plain wrong and it just wasn’t the right thing to do hey?
Or maybe the Euro would have been a lot healthier if the UK, Denmark and Sweden had been required to adopt it, and we would have had a stong united currency?
Which one of those is the right answer?
Personally I see them being in the euro and not able to take the easy route is a good thing. Hopefully spain will instead make the necessary labour and economic reforms instead.
Bit optimistic I know…
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Although I was in favour of the Uk joining the euro, with hindsight I am pleased we didn’t because it would have been a complete disaster for us given our recent economic woes.
If you look at Greece and Spain, their economic policies are now determined by by the economic needs of their northern partners. What is good for France and Germany may not be good for the PIGS because their economies and economic cycles are quite different.
Whilst I cannot see any of the PIGS leaving the euro I do think that there is a strong possibility of social unrest in some of those countries.
Richard
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@rt21 wrote:
If you look at Greece and Spain, their economic policies are now determined by by the economic needs of their northern partners.
The Euro was created to fill the needs of Germany and France, not the ones of Spain and GReece.
The property bubble in Spain is due to the low interest rates neccesary for Germany recovery.
Now Germany will let Spain and Greece rot, they could not care less.
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Everything is possible but I cant see a brake up of the eurozone if Germany and to a lesser extent France have anything to do with it.
The single currency was there baby and to see it start to fail would be a bitter pill, if a member state wants to leave then of course they can but would they want an all but worthless currency as would surely happen ?
I cant see the ECB letting it fail
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I don’t think the ECB, nor Germany and France, would want to see the euro fail. That is why immence pressure is being put on the PIGS to sort out their problems. However, the E.U. medicine is not very palatable. In the face of increasing unemployment and lower economic activity, Greece and Spain are being asked to reduce public spending, which will further increase unemployment and further reduce economic activity.
The Greek and Spanish government can only take such measures with the support of their people. Once they lose that support then civil unrest and strikes may erupt, which will test the resolve of the governments. What would happen then ?
Would France or Germany bail them out at the expense of upsetting their own electrates. Or would they adopt a non interventionist policy.
I don’t think anyone knows how this one is going to run but there are some very interesting possibilities should the Greek and Spanish governments face a backlash from their electorates
Richard
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The euro is here to stay, pure and simple. It is as unthinkable for one of the European states that has joined to leave now as it would be for one of the United States to do from the dollar. The article in the link explains that very clearly.
What this does mean is that the weaker economies have still got to go through significant pain to adjust. No doubt there will be civil unrest. It will be a long hard slog.
From a property perspective. The real crunch will come when inflationary pressures raise their head again in Northern Europe. The uber hawks at the ECB (Which is mostly built from the Bundesbank) will then jack up interest rates regardless of the impact that has on the likes of Spain. That, I feel, is when the property market will eventually capitulate.
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@Claire wrote:
Another viewpoint.
http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSLDE6130KN20100204?type=usDollarRpt
http://blogs.wsj.com/economics/2010/02/04/spain-were-not-greece/
Be as it may, Greece, Portugal and Spain will go back to the second-tier Europe where they were not long ago. Maybe Spain will do better because it has productive regions like Catalonia which can pull them from the disaster-area. There is no such region in Greece.
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Daily Telegraph: Fears of ‘Lehman-style’ tsunami
In Spain, default insurance surged 16 basis points after Nobel economist Paul Krugman said that “the biggest trouble spot isn’t Greece, it’s Spain”. He blamed EMU’s one-size-fits-all monetary system, which has left the country with no defence against an adverse shock. The Madrid’s IBEX index fell 6pc.
Finance minister Elena Salgado said Professor Krugman did not “understand” the eurozone……(well, she would, wouldn’t she) but reserved her full wrath for the EU economics commissioner, Joaquin Almunia, who helped trigger the panic flight from Iberian debt by blurting out that Spain and Portugal were in much the same mess as Greece.
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@flosmichael wrote:
Be as it may, Greece, Portugal and Spain will go back to the second-tier Europe where they were not long ago.
Actually, if Germany paid the debt they owe Greece – Greece would actually have a surfeit of money.
In December when discussing the possibilty of EU help for Greece, Wolfgang Schäuble, Germany’s Federal Minister of Finance, had the arrogance in an interview with Das Bild to say “we Germans cannot pay for the mistakes of the Greeks”.
However he seems to have overlooked the slight ‘mistakes’ Germany made in Greece during their 4-year occupation during the war.
They destroyed all the bridges, ports, government buildings etc., in fact decimated Greece’s entire infrastructure. The result was so devasting that in 1958 at an International Peace Conference in Paris, Germany was ordered to pay Greece 7,100 billion$ for all the damages they caused. They never have.They also wiped out (murdered) half a million of Greece’s men leaving most villages with just old women and female children. In many cases they just torched the whole village with everyone in it.
For a small and relatively-poor country like Greece, this destruction of its infrastructure and working-male population made it difficult to say the least as far as Greece trying to get back on its feet after the war.
This is on top of Germany ‘acquiring’ a 3,500 billion$ ‘loan’ from Greece in 1943 which they have also never repaid.This makes 10,600 billion $ they owe Greece (that’s without considering the interest). Greece’s current 270 billion $ debt is a dot in the ocean compared to what Germany owe.
The same Wolfgang Schäuble said recently:
“”Greece must correct the errors of the past, there is no way around that……Greece cannot be spared from correcting its own mistakes……”
So pay the money you owe for your errors of the past – then Greece would be out of their debt crisis!As Greece’s debts and financial troubles are being compared almost daily now to Spain, just thought I’d throw in a few facts that may – or may not – be of interest. 😀
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@charlie wrote:
@flosmichael wrote:
Be as it may, Greece, Portugal and Spain will go back to the second-tier Europe where they were not long ago.
Actually, if Germany paid the debt they owe Greece – Greece would actually have a surfeit of money.
In December when discussing the possibilty of EU help for Greece, Wolfgang Schäuble, Germany’s Federal Minister of Finance, had the arrogance in an interview with Das Bild to say “we Germans cannot pay for the mistakes of the Greeks”.
However he seems to have overlooked the slight ‘mistakes’ Germany made in Greece during their 4-year occupation during the war.
They destroyed all the bridges, ports, government buildings etc., in fact decimated Greece’s entire infrastructure. The result was so devasting that in 1958 at an International Peace Conference in Paris, Germany was ordered to pay Greece 7,100 billion$ for all the damages they caused. They never have.They also wiped out (murdered) half a million of Greece’s men leaving most villages with just old women and female children. In many cases they just torched the whole village with everyone in it.
For a small and relatively-poor country like Greece, this destruction of its infrastructure and working-male population made it difficult to say the least as far as Greece trying to get back on its feet after the war.
This is on top of Germany ‘acquiring’ a 3,500 billion$ ‘loan’ from Greece in 1943 which they have also never repaid.This makes 10,600 billion $ they owe Greece (that’s without considering the interest). Greece’s current 270 billion $ debt is a dot in the ocean compared to what Germany owe.
The same Wolfgang Schäuble said recently:
“”Greece must correct the errors of the past, there is no way around that……Greece cannot be spared from correcting its own mistakes……”
So pay the money you owe for your errors of the past – then Greece would be out of their debt crisis!As Greece’s debts and financial troubles are being compared almost daily now to Spain, just thought I’d throw in a few facts that may – or may not – be of interest. 😀
What about the money that Russians are supposed to pay for their damage on Eastern Europe? Millions of people died after 1945 because their food was taken and sent to feed the USSR. Some countries like DDR were under USSR-ocupation until 1989.
Do you also know that the Russians raped and killed almost all the women which did not hide during their fight towards Berlin?
I agree that Germans were the losers but…
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One positive thing to come out of Spains pain (not for the spanish of course!) is that property prices will fall even lower. They may also realise they have been ripping off the tourists they have lost and start to charge reasonable prices again. By the end of this year we may see a real fall in property prices
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Reading through two pages of posts on this topics it seems like Spain can either suffer neverending economic pain within the Euro or provoke almost certain Armageddon by leaving. I agree that the government should get on with administering some nasty medicine in terms of real public sector and labour market reform; it’s the only route to go down as all the easy options have failed but it’s not a very appetising prospect. Gloomy start to the New year eh?
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@flosmichael wrote:
What about the money that Russians are supposed to pay for their damage on Eastern Europe?
Do you also know that the Russians raped and killed almost all the women which did not hide during their fight towards Berlin
Russia is not a member of the EU where they have a say in whether to help another EU country or not.
Nor are they hypocritically lecturing a country they devasted that they should “not be spared from correcting its own mistakes” – especially at an economically-tough time like now.
Re. the rape by Russian soldiers (this is getting really off topic) of course no excuses.
But maybe events like the 900 day siege of Leningrad (where around 700,000 Russians died of starvation and the cold) may have had something to do with their reasons for revenge, however wrong it was. No doubt many of these soldiers had family/friends in Leningrad.
Did you not know that the Germans in Greece were also raping women – besides that is for also burning them alive in barns and churches?Quoting what the Russians did in response to my post on the aspect of a German lecturing Greece re. its financial position within the EU is somewhat missing my point – in my opinion.
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@charlie wrote:
Quoting what the Russians did in response to my post on the aspect of a German lecturing Greece re. its financial position within the EU is somewhat missing my point – in my opinion.
Well, Greeks need to have excuses. 😀
It is very common in the Balkans region to put the blame on others before taking any responsability. I myself am quite good at doing that. 😀
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@flosmichael wrote:
Well, Greeks need to have excuses. 😀
It’s not the Greeks making excuses, it’s me simply pointing out the fact Greece would be out of debt if the Germans paid what they owe for the damages they caused.
I wonder if you would be so flippant with a smilie emoticon if it had been the UK in Greece’s shoes during the war.
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@charlie wrote:
@flosmichael wrote:
Well, Greeks need to have excuses. 😀
It’s not the Greeks making excuses, it’s me simply pointing out the fact Greece would be out of debt if the Germans paid what they owe for the damages they caused.
I wonder if you would be so flippant with a smilie emoticon if it had been the UK in Greece’s shoes during the war.
Charlie, I think it´s crazy and dumb what you are writing here.
Most of the european countries had to deal with their bombed infrastructure after the war.
Most of them managed very well.
Greece started already cheating when they joined the euro.
It was a pure politcal decission to let them join even not achieving the stability (max.3Percent) goal.
By the way, every poll in germany in the past has shown that the german
people didn´t want to give up their “Deutsche Mark”.And who, do you think, is the paymaster of the european community ?
Not the guys always driving on the wrong side of the road.I think germany has already paid to much 😥
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@charlie wrote:
@flosmichael wrote:
Well, Greeks need to have excuses. 😀
I wonder if you would be so flippant with a smilie emoticon if it had been the UK in Greece’s shoes during the war.
I was born in country which was much more ravaged by the World War 2 than Greece.
And then by Russian “liberators”. And my grandfather died at Stalingrad so I have been personally affected by the war.And British and American planes destroyed large areas of some cities in 1943-1944. They did not pay anything for the damaged caused.
As a matter of fact Churchill sold that country to Stalin in exchange for Greece…
But now it is way too late to mention the war. Germany has already paid its dues.
Live moves on. Greece should make order in their own garden, not expect German money from the sky -
Charlie, I think it´s crazy and dumb what you are writing here.
Everyone is entitled to put forward an opinion on the forum, and more importantly state some simple facts. Currently living in Greece and seeing it from their side, that’s the opinion that I have – if that’s ok?Most of the european countries had to deal with their bombed infrastructure after the war.
Most of them managed very well.
Out of the countries that were occupied, only the wealthier ones ‘managed very well’.
Greece started already cheating when they joined the euro.
And France for example didn’t/doesn’t?By the way, every poll in germany in the past has shown that the german
people didn´t want to give up their “Deutsche Mark”.
Likewise the Greeks re. their Drachma.Look, I’m not saying Greece is any worse or better off than anyone else after the war – I’m merely stating what happened to Greece, what the Paris International Conference in Paris declared Germany should pay which they – rather like the French with EU directives – have ignored. And how this amount would lever Greece out of their current debt crisis. That’s all.
Next we’ll be having a discussion about how N. Australia suffered at the hands of the Japanese bombers! 🙄 -
I was born in country which was much more ravaged by the World War 2 than Greece.
And then by Russian “liberators”. And my grandfather died at Stalingrad so I have been personally affected by the war.
This is getting a bit silly now – do you not think there are many of us on this forum who have “been personally affected by the war” and lost a relative – I certainly have, several in fact, and they were ‘nearer’ to me than a grandfather.And British and American planes destroyed large areas of some cities in 1943-1944. They did not pay anything for the damaged caused.
I think it’s called bombing-back when being bombed. What did you expect – Hitler to bomb the hell out of London without any retaliation?
Are you forgetting that Britain and America were not the original aggressors, why should they pay?I was born in country which was much more ravaged by the World War 2 than Greece.
As a matter of fact Churchill sold that country to Stalin in exchange for Greece…
I think I now understand better the reasons for your thoughts re. Greece.Germany has already paid its dues.
Not in the eyes of the Greeks they haven’t. Not a penny.I’m not commenting any more on this, I’ve said my piece in my original post on the subject and stand by it. I’m off to do some gardening – the sun is shining! Flosmichael and Sunwind can continue to their hearts content. 8)
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@charlie wrote:
I was born in country which was much more ravaged by the World War 2 than Greece.
This is getting a bit silly now – do you not think there are many of us on this forum who have “been personally affected by the war” and lost a relative – I certainly have, several in fact, and they were ‘nearer’ to me than a grandfather.
It was just an answer to your quite shallow comment
“I wonder if you would be so flippant with a smilie emoticon if it had been the UK in Greece’s shoes during the war.”
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@charlie wrote:
And my answer was in reply to your ‘quite shallow’ comment……
Well, Greeks need to have excuses.
followed by a 😀 emoticon.I do not know how long you lived in Greece, but I am not sure if you understand the Greek mentality.
Crete might be a bit different as it is so far away from the mainland.
The Spanish corruption is a child play in comparison to the Greek corruption.
Give Greece 100 billion Euros and probably half is going to be stolen by the politicians.
Greece is a money pit, giving them more money is not a solution. They have to stop behaving like part of the Ottoman Empire and start behaving like 21-st century Europeans.
Of course the same is true for Romania and Bulgaria.
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@flosmichael wrote:
I do not know how long you lived in Greece, but I am not sure if you understand the Greek mentality.
Have lived with one for the last 14 years so dare I say I possibly understand it better than you do.
@flosmichael wrote:
They have to stop behaving like part of the Ottoman Empire and start behaving like 21-st century Europeans
……..like the Spanish??? 😆 😆 😆
And just what is a 21st century European, flosmichael??
It wouldn’t be someone who ends up living in a 21st century communist-style dictatorship would it??Can’t find my gardening gloves! 🙁
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@charlie wrote:
@flosmichael wrote:
I do not know how long you lived in Greece, but I am not sure if you understand the Greek mentality.
Have lived with one for the last 14 years so dare I say I possibly understand it better than you do.
@flosmichael wrote:
They have to stop behaving like part of the Ottoman Empire and start behaving like 21-st century Europeans
……..like the Spanish??? 😆 😆 😆
As I said, Spanish corruption is child play as compared to Greek corruption.
Spain has many regions like Catalunia which are decades (if not centuries) ahead of Greece. Greece will never have anything like that.
Corfu was probably at the level of Andalucia but people from Corfu considered
themselves to be light years ahead of the main Greece and they were proudly pointing out to be of Venetian origin not of Greek origin… -
Should Greece & Spain pull out of the Euro?
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Why is devaluation of a currency seen as a good thing?
Devaluation is a form of theft. A percentage of your savings have been taken away from you. It is nothing more than a pernicious form of taxation.
Money no longer exists. It is nothing more than electronic digits generated by governments to get themselves out of a financial black hole. The Americans, unlike most other countries, can print money whenever they want. Britain also likes to do it’s little bit. But, the rest of the World cannot print without hyperinflation.
We have been shafted by the banks. The talk of coming out of this recession is rubbish. It’s taken 200Billion of quesing to produce 0.1 % growth! QE hasn’t even fed through to the economy yet.
We are broke. Spain is broke. Europe is broke, and, America is broke. There is no quick fix. This debt is going to take years and years to correct. There will be no buyers for properties in Spain.
House prices in Spain will fall substantially over the next 5 years – IMHO.
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I wouldn’t neccessarily see devaluation as a good thing more a better of two evils.
Take Spain for example it has become grossly uncompetitive in the international market in recent years and needs to take action to redress this. The most effective but probably most unpalatable remedy would be to cut people’s wages , pensions and public services. Although Spain has said that it will take such action it is prevaricating in its discussions with the unions and employer. This is not surprising as most people would object if they were told that their wages would be cut. Such actions would probably lead to social unrest.
On the other hand devaluation is as a more indirect way of achieving the same results. Your exports become cheaper and therefore more competitive. Imports become more expensive in relation to home produced goods and therefore provide a stimulus to the home economy. Although of course the higher cost of imported raw materials also has an adverse effect on the price of exported goods, it is generally balanced out by other factors.
I believe Spain is in for a very rough ride if the ECB continues to adopt policies more aimed at the Franco-German economies than Club Med
Richard
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The other thing that I should have mentioned is that a currency generally finds its own level. If a country’s balance of payments is strong then its currency would normally appreciate. And conversely it is weak it would depreciate (devalue). That is the way trade would normally balance itself out. Otherwise some countries would just keep on building huge trade surpluses and othes huge deficits. At the end of the day those in deficit have to pay those in surplus and the way they do that is by borrowing.
If Spain had its own currency it would undoubtedly have fallen in value in order to redress its position. However, as Spain’s currency is locked into the euro, how can it ever hope to redress its imbalances without swinging cuts in its economy ?
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Yet another article in Saturday’s Telegraph are talking about the PIGS or PIIGS if you include Ireland coming out of the Euro and it’s devastating consequences for other economies. It’s not impossible for Spain to come out along with Greece, and the knock-on will be that Spanish property prices would fall further with devaluation.
So, do you toss a coin and buy now when some say prices have ‘bottomed’ with a poor exchange rate, or do you wait for possible devaluation for real bargains and when the Euro takes a big hit? 🙄
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Angie
Although no one can forsee with any certainty what will happen, it doesn’t necessarily follow that a devaluation of the euro will necessarily result in a lower value of euro in relation to sterling. If you look at this mornings currency market, there was a significant devaluation of the euro against the dollar because of the uncertainties surrounding euroland. However, that didn’t help the pound because the markets felt that the UK was in a similar or worse position to euroland. In fact what happened was that the euro went up in value against the pound
Richard
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RT21, Interestingly it now seems that traders are beginning to punt against the euro because of problems with PIGS countries and I do wonder whether there will be some of Euro crash sometime in the future especially against the dollar.
If this happens it might well come to the aid of Spain’s economy ironically as Brits could buy property again at a good exchange rate as well as take cheaper holidays.
But for that possibility I would hold off from investing in Spain now.
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Angie
there may well be some sort of crash or significant fall in the euro against all currencies, which would of course make property investment attractive once again to Brits.
However, the currency markets are currently lumping the euro with the pound as risky currencies and as long as that continues then both currencies will drop together and there will be no benefit to the Brits.
Richard
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First the PIGS now the STUPID’s. They are all in the same boat.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/breakingviewscom/7192342/The-UK-mustnt-be-STUPID.html
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First the PIGS now the STUPID’s. They are all in the same boat.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/breakingviewscom/7192342/The-UK-mustnt-be-STUPID.html
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IT seems they do it again 😡
Euro rallies as EU plans Greek rescue: Brussels and Germans poised for Athens bailout
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IT seems they do it again 😡
Euro rallies as EU plans Greek rescue: Brussels and Germans poised for Athens bailout
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According to the Bank for International Settlements, German exposure in Greece is €43bn, in Spain it’s €240bn.
Daily Telegraph today:
Germany is preparing to drop its vehement opposition to a rescue package for Greece, fearing that a rapid escalation of the debt crisis in Southern Europe could endanger German banks and damage the euro. The news pushed the euro to $1.38 against the dollar, the strongest one-day rally since the single currency began its nose-dive late last year.Yields on Greek 10-year bonds plummeted 36 basis points to 6.39pc in a matter of hours as speculators scrambled to exit overstretched positions, with synchronised moves for Portuguese, Spanish, and Italian bonds.
(There was apparently about £5bn worth of speculative short positions on the Euro so a few fingers are getting burned if they’re unable to cover their positions).
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According to the Bank for International Settlements, German exposure in Greece is €43bn, in Spain it’s €240bn.
Daily Telegraph today:
Germany is preparing to drop its vehement opposition to a rescue package for Greece, fearing that a rapid escalation of the debt crisis in Southern Europe could endanger German banks and damage the euro. The news pushed the euro to $1.38 against the dollar, the strongest one-day rally since the single currency began its nose-dive late last year.Yields on Greek 10-year bonds plummeted 36 basis points to 6.39pc in a matter of hours as speculators scrambled to exit overstretched positions, with synchronised moves for Portuguese, Spanish, and Italian bonds.
(There was apparently about £5bn worth of speculative short positions on the Euro so a few fingers are getting burned if they’re unable to cover their positions).
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http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1250094/Britons-pay-financial-bailout-Greece.html
Before anyone says it’s only the Mail, I was listening to PM questions yesterday and he was asked this question..and dodged the answer.
If the UK pays to bail out Greece would they also have to bail out Spain. Could be the final straw for those who have lost money in property frauds in Spain.
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http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1250094/Britons-pay-financial-bailout-Greece.html
Before anyone says it’s only the Mail, I was listening to PM questions yesterday and he was asked this question..and dodged the answer.
If the UK pays to bail out Greece would they also have to bail out Spain. Could be the final straw for those who have lost money in property frauds in Spain.
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@katy wrote:
If the UK pays to bail out Greece would they also have to bail out Spain. Could be the final straw for those who have lost money in property frauds in Spain.
But the argument can also go:
“Fellow citizens, there are so many Brits in Spain. If Spanish economy implodes, they will also suffer.
So please spare a couple of hundred £ for your UK brothers and sisters in Spain”What would one in front of such arguments?
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@katy wrote:
If the UK pays to bail out Greece would they also have to bail out Spain. Could be the final straw for those who have lost money in property frauds in Spain.
But the argument can also go:
“Fellow citizens, there are so many Brits in Spain. If Spanish economy implodes, they will also suffer.
So please spare a couple of hundred £ for your UK brothers and sisters in Spain”What would one in front of such arguments?
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countries will only help bail out another country if its in there interests.
For the UK or germany it will come down to their exposure to the other economies.
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countries will only help bail out another country if its in there interests.
For the UK or germany it will come down to their exposure to the other economies.
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@rt21 wrote:
I think you are spot on with your observations Fuengi.
it’s a very emotive subject and one which I feel the tabloids will focus on to grab headlines and stir the passions of the readers.
Richard
Daily Telegraph is far from being a tabloid…
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@rt21 wrote:
I think you are spot on with your observations Fuengi.
it’s a very emotive subject and one which I feel the tabloids will focus on to grab headlines and stir the passions of the readers.
Richard
Daily Telegraph is far from being a tabloid…
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The EU bail out Greece this lunchtime.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/europe/8508688.stm
And the pound leaps.
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The EU bail out Greece this lunchtime.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/europe/8508688.stm
And the pound leaps.
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I have read the comments,…quite Euro-esceptic,…never mind,…Greece GDP is about 3% of Euro zone GDP. California is about 20% USA GDP (in a very bad economic position)…Don’t get too excited…
Don’t worry for your taxes!!!.
I think you should know what are you speaking about,…as UK is mostly out of most of EU politics, it’s far to be “really” a net payer …in fact Spain is is one of the biggest contributor to the UK check, I will give you the facts and numbers: Final annual accounts of the European Communities (2008), and a link to the Finanacial documents of the EU.
http://ec.europa.eu/budget/documents/2008_en.htm#table-3_2.
Total Expenditure EU: 116.544,5
Total Expenditure EU on UK: 7.309,9 ;Total UK contribution: 7.613,8 Operating budgetary balance (GDI%) for UK: -0,05%
Total Expenditure EU on Spain: 12.093,8 ; Total Sp contribution: 8.776,4
Operating budgetary balance (GDI%) for Sp: +0,26%
Total Expenditure EU on France: 13.721,8 ; Total Fr contribution: 16.456,5
Operating budgetary balance (GDI%) for Fr: -0,20%
Operating budgetary balance (GDI%) for Germany: -0,35%The Spain contribution to the UK correction (UK check) : 931,7
(Data in millions Euros).
Regards. -
I have read the comments,…quite Euro-esceptic,…never mind,…Greece GDP is about 3% of Euro zone GDP. California is about 20% USA GDP (in a very bad economic position)…Don’t get too excited…
Don’t worry for your taxes!!!.
I think you should know what are you speaking about,…as UK is mostly out of most of EU politics, it’s far to be “really” a net payer …in fact Spain is is one of the biggest contributor to the UK check, I will give you the facts and numbers: Final annual accounts of the European Communities (2008), and a link to the Finanacial documents of the EU.
http://ec.europa.eu/budget/documents/2008_en.htm#table-3_2.
Total Expenditure EU: 116.544,5
Total Expenditure EU on UK: 7.309,9 ;Total UK contribution: 7.613,8 Operating budgetary balance (GDI%) for UK: -0,05%
Total Expenditure EU on Spain: 12.093,8 ; Total Sp contribution: 8.776,4
Operating budgetary balance (GDI%) for Sp: +0,26%
Total Expenditure EU on France: 13.721,8 ; Total Fr contribution: 16.456,5
Operating budgetary balance (GDI%) for Fr: -0,20%
Operating budgetary balance (GDI%) for Germany: -0,35%The Spain contribution to the UK correction (UK check) : 931,7
(Data in millions Euros).
Regards. -
@Stevev6 wrote:
The EU bail out Greece this lunchtime.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/europe/8508688.stm
And the pound leaps.
This is an interesting bailout…
No money involved but “keep up the good work, Greece!”
“Greece won’t be left alone but there are rules and these rules must be adhered to,” Angela Merkel told reporters. “On this basis we will agree on a statement.”
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aaiyjZR.KzVw&pos=1
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@Stevev6 wrote:
The EU bail out Greece this lunchtime.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/europe/8508688.stm
And the pound leaps.
This is an interesting bailout…
No money involved but “keep up the good work, Greece!”
“Greece won’t be left alone but there are rules and these rules must be adhered to,” Angela Merkel told reporters. “On this basis we will agree on a statement.”
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aaiyjZR.KzVw&pos=1
-
After watching the BBC News at 10 and listening to the various economists, today was just to prime the world as to what will happen, the genie is now out of the bottle and of course it won’t go back in. Greece needs 53 billion euros within a month to meet commitments.
This of course won’t happen and the EU will have absulutly no option but respond, it will have no option mainly to stop the domino effect with the rest of the PIGS.
Just think of a row of dominos standing in a row, the first one can’t be allowed to fall.
I think we have an extremely interesting few months ahead in the FX world. -
After watching the BBC News at 10 and listening to the various economists, today was just to prime the world as to what will happen, the genie is now out of the bottle and of course it won’t go back in. Greece needs 53 billion euros within a month to meet commitments.
This of course won’t happen and the EU will have absulutly no option but respond, it will have no option mainly to stop the domino effect with the rest of the PIGS.
Just think of a row of dominos standing in a row, the first one can’t be allowed to fall.
I think we have an extremely interesting few months ahead in the FX world. -
@Stevev6 wrote:
After watching the BBC News at 10 and listening to the various economists, today was just to prime the world as to what will happen, the genie is now out of the bottle and of course it won’t go back in. Greece needs 53 billion euros within a month to meet commitments.
This of course won’t happen and the EU will have absulutly no option but respond, it will have no option mainly to stop the domino effect with the rest of the PIGS.
Just think of a row of dominos standing in a row, the first one can’t be allowed to fall.
I think we have an extremely interesting few months ahead in the FX world.Agreed. But they will risk only so much.
-
@Stevev6 wrote:
After watching the BBC News at 10 and listening to the various economists, today was just to prime the world as to what will happen, the genie is now out of the bottle and of course it won’t go back in. Greece needs 53 billion euros within a month to meet commitments.
This of course won’t happen and the EU will have absulutly no option but respond, it will have no option mainly to stop the domino effect with the rest of the PIGS.
Just think of a row of dominos standing in a row, the first one can’t be allowed to fall.
I think we have an extremely interesting few months ahead in the FX world.Agreed. But they will risk only so much.
-
I believe that the Financial documents of the EU are quite interesting …they can give a little of perspective and to stop the sentences of many liars (or ignorance people).
• Most of the countries of Europe signed the UNO compromise to give 0,7% of their GDI for Official Development Aid to the third world.
….but in a very amusing way,…to lend same money to Greece, that is a European partner, is something that burn the nerves of many of you,…!!!!!!!
• Many of you speak about the EU as a huge monster that vampires the poor UK taxes payers,…millions of newspapers are sold with that assumption,…including that assumption can be decisive in the UK elections.
….but in a very amusing way,…the UK net contribution to EU is only of 300 millions Euros.
• How much money represented the Marshall plan to Europe?,…maybe a 5% (I don’t know),…but Europe itself can not manage to borrow some small amount of money to the Greece. I don’t remember who said that generosity is a privilege to the great countries.
And finally about the Euro:
Euro has been a completely successful instrument for the Euro zone:
• To devaluate is the easier solution in the sort term but is not a solution in a middle term. It is creating inflation (the taxes of the poor people, who can’t manage to defend their savings for inflation)
• Did you realize how cheap is to get money for the Euro zone countries and companies?.
• About 60% of the currencies reserves are evaluated in dollars and about 30% in Euros,…the other 10% is for Yen, Pound, Switzerland Franc, and others…it is difficult to evaluate but some studies suggest that about 0,5% of the GDI is earned for the ECB for that situation.In my point of view, UK and other countries politic not joining the Euro is an economic suicide.
Regards
-
I believe that the Financial documents of the EU are quite interesting …they can give a little of perspective and to stop the sentences of many liars (or ignorance people).
• Most of the countries of Europe signed the UNO compromise to give 0,7% of their GDI for Official Development Aid to the third world.
….but in a very amusing way,…to lend same money to Greece, that is a European partner, is something that burn the nerves of many of you,…!!!!!!!
• Many of you speak about the EU as a huge monster that vampires the poor UK taxes payers,…millions of newspapers are sold with that assumption,…including that assumption can be decisive in the UK elections.
….but in a very amusing way,…the UK net contribution to EU is only of 300 millions Euros.
• How much money represented the Marshall plan to Europe?,…maybe a 5% (I don’t know),…but Europe itself can not manage to borrow some small amount of money to the Greece. I don’t remember who said that generosity is a privilege to the great countries.
And finally about the Euro:
Euro has been a completely successful instrument for the Euro zone:
• To devaluate is the easier solution in the sort term but is not a solution in a middle term. It is creating inflation (the taxes of the poor people, who can’t manage to defend their savings for inflation)
• Did you realize how cheap is to get money for the Euro zone countries and companies?.
• About 60% of the currencies reserves are evaluated in dollars and about 30% in Euros,…the other 10% is for Yen, Pound, Switzerland Franc, and others…it is difficult to evaluate but some studies suggest that about 0,5% of the GDI is earned for the ECB for that situation.In my point of view, UK and other countries politic not joining the Euro is an economic suicide.
Regards
-
I would tend to agree with you that on a macro level the euro has been relatively successful (compared to the pound ) in that it has tended to hold its value. However on a micro level I am not so sure that it has been universally successful for all members. Certainly the northern members have gained quite a lot out of it. They have increased their competitiveness in terms of club med countries like Spain and are running a surplus in terms of trade. The club med countries have experienced significant falls in competitiveness and conversely are suffering from trade deficits.
In a completely free market with sovereign currencies these imbalances would be addressed by currency movements in the short term or improvements in productivity in the longer term. However countries like Spain are tied into the euro and euro policies. What is good for Germany is not necessarily good for club med countries. Spain for example has become very uncompetitive. It cannot devalue in the short term to address its problem and shows very little appetite apart from words to address its productivity. As a result unemployment in the country has rocketed and there are no signs that it has the appetite to address the structural problems which affect its productivity. Tourism is one of its main industries. Yet I speak to friends who are now shunning holidays over there in favour of holiday spots in non euro countries, because it is now too expensive .
Having said that, I think the UK is also facing severe problems. However up to now it has managed to weather the storm through devaluation and the use of other financial instruments. Whether it could withstand a currency crisis is another matter. But that is for the future.
Richard
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I would tend to agree with you that on a macro level the euro has been relatively successful (compared to the pound ) in that it has tended to hold its value. However on a micro level I am not so sure that it has been universally successful for all members. Certainly the northern members have gained quite a lot out of it. They have increased their competitiveness in terms of club med countries like Spain and are running a surplus in terms of trade. The club med countries have experienced significant falls in competitiveness and conversely are suffering from trade deficits.
In a completely free market with sovereign currencies these imbalances would be addressed by currency movements in the short term or improvements in productivity in the longer term. However countries like Spain are tied into the euro and euro policies. What is good for Germany is not necessarily good for club med countries. Spain for example has become very uncompetitive. It cannot devalue in the short term to address its problem and shows very little appetite apart from words to address its productivity. As a result unemployment in the country has rocketed and there are no signs that it has the appetite to address the structural problems which affect its productivity. Tourism is one of its main industries. Yet I speak to friends who are now shunning holidays over there in favour of holiday spots in non euro countries, because it is now too expensive .
Having said that, I think the UK is also facing severe problems. However up to now it has managed to weather the storm through devaluation and the use of other financial instruments. Whether it could withstand a currency crisis is another matter. But that is for the future.
Richard
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@rt21 wrote:
In a completely free market with sovereign currencies these imbalances would be addressed by currency movements….
Absolutely correct.
I remember talking to a young Swiss banker (newly embarked on his apprenticeship with one of the large Swiss banks) prior to the euro coming into force. I asked him what he thought about the whole euro currency project and he replied he couldn’t see it working purely on the basis that different countries with differing economies need to make their own adjustments according to their individual problems at the time. Devalueing their currency when necessary being one of these ways. Take that ability away, he said, and there can only be problems. He was 19 yrs old and could see it, why couldn’t the architects of this euro project not see it?There is a lot of frustration here in Greece at their inability to devalue their currency by not having the Drachma – leading to cheaper, attractively-priced holidays for tourists thus boosting the economy as one example, cheaper exports etc. The current protests in the streets of Greece are because it is the lower-paid taxed workers and oldies (via their pensions) who will feel the brunt of any cost-cutting measures proposed while the wealthy ‘professionals’ (including doctors) and businessmen will continue to deal with payments in cash.
We have a friend in Athens, 23 years working for the electricity company, running a department with lots of responsibility. Still only earning 1200 euros a month at the age of 44yrs. The twice yearly bonus of an extra months salary, common here, which tops up these low salaries and essential for making ends meet is one of the cuts proposed. This is why the people are angry, the average Greek just can’t pull their belts in any further. The corruption lies mainly with the middle/upper classes avoiding tax (and the politicians of course) and this is what has to be addressed.
This newly-elected Prime Minister Papandréou has inherited a boiling-hot potatoe and the general Greek population (the employed and subsequently the tax-paying ones) are angry and frustrated. I suspect there will be a similar scenario after the elections in UK – I wonder how long the traditional ‘honeymoon’ period will last.
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@rt21 wrote:
In a completely free market with sovereign currencies these imbalances would be addressed by currency movements….
Absolutely correct.
I remember talking to a young Swiss banker (newly embarked on his apprenticeship with one of the large Swiss banks) prior to the euro coming into force. I asked him what he thought about the whole euro currency project and he replied he couldn’t see it working purely on the basis that different countries with differing economies need to make their own adjustments according to their individual problems at the time. Devalueing their currency when necessary being one of these ways. Take that ability away, he said, and there can only be problems. He was 19 yrs old and could see it, why couldn’t the architects of this euro project not see it?There is a lot of frustration here in Greece at their inability to devalue their currency by not having the Drachma – leading to cheaper, attractively-priced holidays for tourists thus boosting the economy as one example, cheaper exports etc. The current protests in the streets of Greece are because it is the lower-paid taxed workers and oldies (via their pensions) who will feel the brunt of any cost-cutting measures proposed while the wealthy ‘professionals’ (including doctors) and businessmen will continue to deal with payments in cash.
We have a friend in Athens, 23 years working for the electricity company, running a department with lots of responsibility. Still only earning 1200 euros a month at the age of 44yrs. The twice yearly bonus of an extra months salary, common here, which tops up these low salaries and essential for making ends meet is one of the cuts proposed. This is why the people are angry, the average Greek just can’t pull their belts in any further. The corruption lies mainly with the middle/upper classes avoiding tax (and the politicians of course) and this is what has to be addressed.
This newly-elected Prime Minister Papandréou has inherited a boiling-hot potatoe and the general Greek population (the employed and subsequently the tax-paying ones) are angry and frustrated. I suspect there will be a similar scenario after the elections in UK – I wonder how long the traditional ‘honeymoon’ period will last.
-
@charlie wrote:
This is why the people are angry, the average Greek just can’t pull their belts in any further. The corruption lies mainly with the middle/upper classes avoiding tax (and the politicians of course) and this is what has to be addressed.
.This is an excellent description of the Balkan situations.
For centuries countries and rulers in the Balkans have survived by paying the Turkish Sultans the yearly bribe. Then the upper classes were paying the bribe to the rulers and the middle classes were paying the bribe to the upper classes.
The lower classes were seen (and they are still seen like this over there) like rats who are not worth the air they breathe.
This is why there will be no change, unless people take it to the streets. EU can give money but it will disappear and nobody will take the blame.
-
@charlie wrote:
This is why the people are angry, the average Greek just can’t pull their belts in any further. The corruption lies mainly with the middle/upper classes avoiding tax (and the politicians of course) and this is what has to be addressed.
.This is an excellent description of the Balkan situations.
For centuries countries and rulers in the Balkans have survived by paying the Turkish Sultans the yearly bribe. Then the upper classes were paying the bribe to the rulers and the middle classes were paying the bribe to the upper classes.
The lower classes were seen (and they are still seen like this over there) like rats who are not worth the air they breathe.
This is why there will be no change, unless people take it to the streets. EU can give money but it will disappear and nobody will take the blame.
-
-
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@flosmichael wrote:
EU can give money but it will disappear and nobody will take the blame.
@angie wrote:
At least Brown has stated that bakrupt UK is not going to help fund Greece’s bail-out…..
I may be wrong but I think any help for Greece in the short term at least will be more in the form of possible extension to loan repayments due end of March. It has requested no financial aid from the IMF, and France and Germany are yet to agree what form any help should be. One can be sure that any direct financial help will be tied up with conditions/restrictions and severe overseeing.
-
@flosmichael wrote:
EU can give money but it will disappear and nobody will take the blame.
@angie wrote:
At least Brown has stated that bakrupt UK is not going to help fund Greece’s bail-out…..
I may be wrong but I think any help for Greece in the short term at least will be more in the form of possible extension to loan repayments due end of March. It has requested no financial aid from the IMF, and France and Germany are yet to agree what form any help should be. One can be sure that any direct financial help will be tied up with conditions/restrictions and severe overseeing.
-
All I know is that a sizeable chunk of debt matures in March. If they fail to repay then the sovereign default would have world wide repercussions that would almost certainly hit the UK. Although from what I read this morning the UK tends to have longer term loans than Greece.
Even if they did repay the maturing debt they would then need to go out into the marketplace to find repacement debt in order to service their needs. I could only imagine what sort of risk premium the markets would demand for such loans.
If the maturing loans were from say German banks then I cannot see what all the fuss is about because they could simply extend the repayment terms by a couple of months. I rather suspect that it runs deeper than that
The one thing that struck me about Charlie’s earlier post was the human dimension to all of this in Greece. When we read that Greece has been profligate in its spending and needs to cut its spending I suppose the natural reaction of most people would be to say well get on and do it. What we do not realise is the sheer misery the cuts will have on ordinary people. The cuts will result in more unemployment, a reduction in services to those in need, less tax as people lose their jobs and spend less, and then another spiral of job cutting and…… Well the spiral goes on and on
What a mess and what a Greek Tragedy.
Richard
Richard -
All I know is that a sizeable chunk of debt matures in March. If they fail to repay then the sovereign default would have world wide repercussions that would almost certainly hit the UK. Although from what I read this morning the UK tends to have longer term loans than Greece.
Even if they did repay the maturing debt they would then need to go out into the marketplace to find repacement debt in order to service their needs. I could only imagine what sort of risk premium the markets would demand for such loans.
If the maturing loans were from say German banks then I cannot see what all the fuss is about because they could simply extend the repayment terms by a couple of months. I rather suspect that it runs deeper than that
The one thing that struck me about Charlie’s earlier post was the human dimension to all of this in Greece. When we read that Greece has been profligate in its spending and needs to cut its spending I suppose the natural reaction of most people would be to say well get on and do it. What we do not realise is the sheer misery the cuts will have on ordinary people. The cuts will result in more unemployment, a reduction in services to those in need, less tax as people lose their jobs and spend less, and then another spiral of job cutting and…… Well the spiral goes on and on
What a mess and what a Greek Tragedy.
Richard
Richard -
To rt21:
Thanks for your replay.
The hard discussions about the Euro are too much engaged with the fact that it have became a successful currency and that have take in a very sot time a huge part of the cake to the dollar…as I said in the last post the benefits to have a reserve currency are huge.
So as much as there are so much interests involved the Euro have a bad publicity, many of that publicity is absurd: It’s a common place to said that it will not work because the heterogenic economies involved, but that is not true, in fact Europe zone is more homogeny (economically speaking) than USA dollar zone or Russian Ruble zone…
Spain as another countries is suffering a huge recession,…but the answer to the Spanish problems in not a devaluation, is the easy way (thanks god the government can not do that),…Spain should found another way to became more competitive, it will be more difficult but in the long term is the only true option. (as we can learn from another devaluations, the 90s devaluations, the competitive earned from a devaluation is soon lost with inflation)
It is true that Spanish is suffering, some sectors more than another’s: The typical Spanish tourist sector should be reconverted, as in the past happened with the old heavy industries of the North of Spain, or the coal extraction,…but is a long time ago that Spaniards knew that the tourist sector or the construction is unsustainable,…how can be sustainable sectors that survive thanks to a massive immigration of cheap labor?. (in less than a decade Spain have increase the population from less than 40 millions to 46 millions). PD- I just need to add that Most of the immigrants are great people.
But I am optimist, I believe that Spain is a great place to live, perhaps not so cheap as in the past, but Spain can not offer first quality services for the prices of another places under the sun, it’s not economically possible. (As I have said many times, from 40º N to 40ºS is most of the world)…the future and the present is that Spain will receive people who want to live here, because they really know where they are and what they can enjoy here,…and new industries,…but I am not speaking in a rose cloud,…is happening,…just take a look to the Euro stock 50, and you will see some Spanish successful big companies,…take the example of Vodafone (a UK company) it have the technologic center of design of radio frequency (the heart of the business) in Spain,…the same with another companies,…Madrid is not the cheaper part of Spain and have increased the number of tourist in the last year,…Why?,…Obviously not for the sangria,…but because the quality of live. Including a top member of the anti Spanish group, Flosmichael, said that he would accept a cut of 20% in his salary to work here.
Sorry to be so long,…My regards. -
To rt21:
Thanks for your replay.
The hard discussions about the Euro are too much engaged with the fact that it have became a successful currency and that have take in a very sot time a huge part of the cake to the dollar…as I said in the last post the benefits to have a reserve currency are huge.
So as much as there are so much interests involved the Euro have a bad publicity, many of that publicity is absurd: It’s a common place to said that it will not work because the heterogenic economies involved, but that is not true, in fact Europe zone is more homogeny (economically speaking) than USA dollar zone or Russian Ruble zone…
Spain as another countries is suffering a huge recession,…but the answer to the Spanish problems in not a devaluation, is the easy way (thanks god the government can not do that),…Spain should found another way to became more competitive, it will be more difficult but in the long term is the only true option. (as we can learn from another devaluations, the 90s devaluations, the competitive earned from a devaluation is soon lost with inflation)
It is true that Spanish is suffering, some sectors more than another’s: The typical Spanish tourist sector should be reconverted, as in the past happened with the old heavy industries of the North of Spain, or the coal extraction,…but is a long time ago that Spaniards knew that the tourist sector or the construction is unsustainable,…how can be sustainable sectors that survive thanks to a massive immigration of cheap labor?. (in less than a decade Spain have increase the population from less than 40 millions to 46 millions). PD- I just need to add that Most of the immigrants are great people.
But I am optimist, I believe that Spain is a great place to live, perhaps not so cheap as in the past, but Spain can not offer first quality services for the prices of another places under the sun, it’s not economically possible. (As I have said many times, from 40º N to 40ºS is most of the world)…the future and the present is that Spain will receive people who want to live here, because they really know where they are and what they can enjoy here,…and new industries,…but I am not speaking in a rose cloud,…is happening,…just take a look to the Euro stock 50, and you will see some Spanish successful big companies,…take the example of Vodafone (a UK company) it have the technologic center of design of radio frequency (the heart of the business) in Spain,…the same with another companies,…Madrid is not the cheaper part of Spain and have increased the number of tourist in the last year,…Why?,…Obviously not for the sangria,…but because the quality of live. Including a top member of the anti Spanish group, Flosmichael, said that he would accept a cut of 20% in his salary to work here.
Sorry to be so long,…My regards. -
PD- Fresh news: the Spanish Development Aid to the third world will be of 5.300 millions Euros this year (the same as last year,…any cut…!!!)…My god the socialist are always so generous with the money of another people…but including taken account of the ineptitude of Mr Zapatero the future will be OK…But MUCH MORRRREE DIFFFFFICULT
-
PD- Fresh news: the Spanish Development Aid to the third world will be of 5.300 millions Euros this year (the same as last year,…any cut…!!!)…My god the socialist are always so generous with the money of another people…but including taken account of the ineptitude of Mr Zapatero the future will be OK…But MUCH MORRRREE DIFFFFFICULT
-
@tree wrote:
PD- Fresh news: the Spanish Development Aid to the third world will be of 5.300 millions Euros this year (the same as last year,…any cut…!!!)…My god the socialist are always so generous with the money of another people…but including taken account of the ineptitude of Mr Zapatero the future will be OK…But MUCH MORRRREE DIFFFFFICULT
Hi tree,
as a curiosity: where do you live in Spain?
-
@tree wrote:
PD- Fresh news: the Spanish Development Aid to the third world will be of 5.300 millions Euros this year (the same as last year,…any cut…!!!)…My god the socialist are always so generous with the money of another people…but including taken account of the ineptitude of Mr Zapatero the future will be OK…But MUCH MORRRREE DIFFFFFICULT
Hi tree,
as a curiosity: where do you live in Spain?
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Who on this forum thinks it is conceivable for Greece to exit the Euro and does anyone believe Spain and Portugal could do so as well?
If Greece did leave, could it start a domino effect?
What effect would such moves have on these countries, could they devalue? Would it impact on the UK economy?
I’m asking these questions simply because economists appear split on this, some are now saying it could happen!
So, a happy, healthy debate please 😉
-
Who on this forum thinks it is conceivable for Greece to exit the Euro and does anyone believe Spain and Portugal could do so as well?
If Greece did leave, could it start a domino effect?
What effect would such moves have on these countries, could they devalue? Would it impact on the UK economy?
I’m asking these questions simply because economists appear split on this, some are now saying it could happen!
So, a happy, healthy debate please 😉
-
Wow what a set of questions! One could write a book on the answers and within a month events might have moved on to such an extent that it would be out of date.
Whilst it is conceivable that Greece could leave the Euro I don’t think at this stage they will.
If they did leave, devalued their currency and things picked up for them then I am sure others might be tempted to follow. However, as someone quite rightly mentioned on another thread the euro is as much a political venture as an economic one so there would be covert pressure on the Greeks not to rock the boat.
The only way that I could envisage Greece leaving the euro is if things became so bad economically and socially that the government realised that the game was up and the only solution was an exit strategy. Another factor that the Greek Government would be aware of is that it would not be an easy thing to replace the euro with their own sovereign currency
In the current circumstances it might suit the ECB if the euro dropped in value, because it would certainly solve a lot of problems across Euroland
Richard.
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Wow what a set of questions! One could write a book on the answers and within a month events might have moved on to such an extent that it would be out of date.
Whilst it is conceivable that Greece could leave the Euro I don’t think at this stage they will.
If they did leave, devalued their currency and things picked up for them then I am sure others might be tempted to follow. However, as someone quite rightly mentioned on another thread the euro is as much a political venture as an economic one so there would be covert pressure on the Greeks not to rock the boat.
The only way that I could envisage Greece leaving the euro is if things became so bad economically and socially that the government realised that the game was up and the only solution was an exit strategy. Another factor that the Greek Government would be aware of is that it would not be an easy thing to replace the euro with their own sovereign currency
In the current circumstances it might suit the ECB if the euro dropped in value, because it would certainly solve a lot of problems across Euroland
Richard.
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The most probable and sensible nation to leave the Euro would be Germany, this would leave the Euro to devalue to suit the PIIGS and make the German electorate happy and the Deutchmark would appreciate agianst the Euro.
The Germans were not happy about the prospect of bailing out southern Europe and they were promised it would never happen.
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The most probable and sensible nation to leave the Euro would be Germany, this would leave the Euro to devalue to suit the PIIGS and make the German electorate happy and the Deutchmark would appreciate agianst the Euro.
The Germans were not happy about the prospect of bailing out southern Europe and they were promised it would never happen.
-
@peterhun wrote:
The most probable and sensible nation to leave the Euro would be Germany, this would leave the Euro to devalue to suit the PIIGS and make the German electorate happy and the Deutchmark would appreciate agianst the Euro.
The Germans were not happy about the prospect of bailing out southern Europe and they were promised it would never happen.
Its not just Germany who need to leave, what about the french, dutch, belgians? Are they going to hang around in a broken currency paying far more for their gilts due to PIGS? If germany leaves others would jump too, so that option isnt exactly a walk in the park either.
My prediction… Greece wont get bailed. They’ll either make the cuts to hit their deficit targets or they’ll have to leave the euro. Same goes for the rest of club med. The rules (Lisbon, Maastricht) are pretty clear on this and its the only way the euro can remain a credible currency. The Euro will actually end up stronger after this and club med can get on with making themselves competitive again.
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@peterhun wrote:
The most probable and sensible nation to leave the Euro would be Germany, this would leave the Euro to devalue to suit the PIIGS and make the German electorate happy and the Deutchmark would appreciate agianst the Euro.
The Germans were not happy about the prospect of bailing out southern Europe and they were promised it would never happen.
Its not just Germany who need to leave, what about the french, dutch, belgians? Are they going to hang around in a broken currency paying far more for their gilts due to PIGS? If germany leaves others would jump too, so that option isnt exactly a walk in the park either.
My prediction… Greece wont get bailed. They’ll either make the cuts to hit their deficit targets or they’ll have to leave the euro. Same goes for the rest of club med. The rules (Lisbon, Maastricht) are pretty clear on this and its the only way the euro can remain a credible currency. The Euro will actually end up stronger after this and club med can get on with making themselves competitive again.
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@flosmichael wrote:
@tree wrote:
PD- Fresh news: the Spanish Development Aid to the third world will be of 5.300 millions Euros this year (the same as last year,…any cut…!!!)…My god the socialist are always so generous with the money of another people…but including taken account of the ineptitude of Mr Zapatero the future will be OK…But MUCH MORRRREE DIFFFFFICULT
Hi tree,
as a curiosity: where do you live in Spain?
Hi flosmichael
as a curiosity, do you own a spainish property. -
@flosmichael wrote:
@tree wrote:
PD- Fresh news: the Spanish Development Aid to the third world will be of 5.300 millions Euros this year (the same as last year,…any cut…!!!)…My god the socialist are always so generous with the money of another people…but including taken account of the ineptitude of Mr Zapatero the future will be OK…But MUCH MORRRREE DIFFFFFICULT
Hi tree,
as a curiosity: where do you live in Spain?
Hi flosmichael
as a curiosity, do you own a spainish property. -
@skippy wrote:
@flosmichael wrote:
@tree wrote:
PD- Fresh news: the Spanish Development Aid to the third world will be of 5.300 millions Euros this year (the same as last year,…any cut…!!!)…My god the socialist are always so generous with the money of another people…but including taken account of the ineptitude of Mr Zapatero the future will be OK…But MUCH MORRRREE DIFFFFFICULT
Hi tree,
as a curiosity: where do you live in Spain?
Hi flosmichael
as a curiosity, do you own a spainish property.Nobody owns spainish property. 😀
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@skippy wrote:
@flosmichael wrote:
@tree wrote:
PD- Fresh news: the Spanish Development Aid to the third world will be of 5.300 millions Euros this year (the same as last year,…any cut…!!!)…My god the socialist are always so generous with the money of another people…but including taken account of the ineptitude of Mr Zapatero the future will be OK…But MUCH MORRRREE DIFFFFFICULT
Hi tree,
as a curiosity: where do you live in Spain?
Hi flosmichael
as a curiosity, do you own a spainish property.Nobody owns spainish property. 😀
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Hello Fuengi!
I don’t think that the “structural funds” Greece is entitle, will be enough money to cover the debt. Although many people think that the EU is a huge structure, it is not,…
The Total Expenditure EU (2008): 116.544,5 (millions), that’s not a huge amount of money,…and think that the countries who give more money receive, from different concepts, as well more money, so for example you can see that at the end the first net payer is Germany with an Operating budgetary balance (GDI%) for Germany: -0,35%.To compare what that means, think that West Europeans signed the UNO compromise to give 0,7% of their GDI for Official Development Aid to the third world…at this moment Spain is giving 0,51% of his GDI in that concept…the same percentage (+/-) in UK case.
So, the cost of the EU politics is far away smaller than the cost in Official Development Aid…I believe that this is quite a surprise.I have read as well that the Greece debt is about 300.000 millions Euros, but half of that debt is with American banks and in Europe the biggest debt is with Switzerland banks,…just to make the things more confusing…
I don’t think that the Germans should be paying the Greece debt,…I think that they already pay enough…and is quite disgusting the way Greece lied about the national accountability…
But as well think that if Greece were not in the EU, they could manage quite well,…by sure they will not receive any money, but they could use importation taxes or much better any other importation barrier (the environment excuse are perfect for this),…Germany is the first export economy in the world, (but the word “world” really means other European countries)…so could be that for Germany is a great business to pay that 0,35% of his GDI and to have an open market,…but I don’t know….Noboby force Greece to join the Euro,…very confusing.
I think that what the European politics should be doing is a serious Fiscal Political Union,…and is a shame that in fact the USA Marshall plan for Europe (after the 2º world war) was soooo much generous than Europe with itself…
Time will said, a crisis could be an opportunity,…sorry to be not completely optimist to night.
Regards. -
Hello Fuengi!
I don’t think that the “structural funds” Greece is entitle, will be enough money to cover the debt. Although many people think that the EU is a huge structure, it is not,…
The Total Expenditure EU (2008): 116.544,5 (millions), that’s not a huge amount of money,…and think that the countries who give more money receive, from different concepts, as well more money, so for example you can see that at the end the first net payer is Germany with an Operating budgetary balance (GDI%) for Germany: -0,35%.To compare what that means, think that West Europeans signed the UNO compromise to give 0,7% of their GDI for Official Development Aid to the third world…at this moment Spain is giving 0,51% of his GDI in that concept…the same percentage (+/-) in UK case.
So, the cost of the EU politics is far away smaller than the cost in Official Development Aid…I believe that this is quite a surprise.I have read as well that the Greece debt is about 300.000 millions Euros, but half of that debt is with American banks and in Europe the biggest debt is with Switzerland banks,…just to make the things more confusing…
I don’t think that the Germans should be paying the Greece debt,…I think that they already pay enough…and is quite disgusting the way Greece lied about the national accountability…
But as well think that if Greece were not in the EU, they could manage quite well,…by sure they will not receive any money, but they could use importation taxes or much better any other importation barrier (the environment excuse are perfect for this),…Germany is the first export economy in the world, (but the word “world” really means other European countries)…so could be that for Germany is a great business to pay that 0,35% of his GDI and to have an open market,…but I don’t know….Noboby force Greece to join the Euro,…very confusing.
I think that what the European politics should be doing is a serious Fiscal Political Union,…and is a shame that in fact the USA Marshall plan for Europe (after the 2º world war) was soooo much generous than Europe with itself…
Time will said, a crisis could be an opportunity,…sorry to be not completely optimist to night.
Regards. -
It seems as though Greece is biting the hand from which it wants feeding
There may be just a possibility that the Germans will let Greece struggle on by itself without any aid in much the same way as Iceland was left to its own devices. This might result in Greece having to leave the Euro in order to stand any chance of surviving. That country could end up impoverished no matter what course of action they take.
It also appears that some in the Eurozone would welcome a fall in the value of the euro, which may be a consequence of not supporting Greece
Richard
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Hi Richard
Re. your opening line, my reaction was the same as yours when I first read Pangalos’ statement and queried the wisdom of him coming out with this at this particular time.
However, when discussing this tonight with Greek friends, they told me that over the last few weeks the German press have been having a field day making all kinds of humiliating remarks about Greece. It’s been reported everyday in the Greek press and on the news.
The last straw has been apparently a German magazine publishing on its front cover a picture of one of Greece’s statues (Venus de Milos) doctored to show it giving ‘the finger’, her waist cloth turned into a dirty Greek flag.
The title is (I think) “Crook in the Euro-Family”….maybe Sunwind can correct?
Having killed half a million Greeks, destroying the country along the way, and now this same nation to spend the last few weeks taunting, insulting and humiliating in this way is a hard pill to swallow for this proud nation. Rubbing salt in a very sore wound. The feeling is they’re glad Pangalos has “opened his mouth”.
P.S. On the Greek news tonight they’re saying calculations have been made re. the owed war reparations, as well as the country’s total gold the Nazis stole from the Bank of Greece, with interest equates to one trillion euros.
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In retaliation to the Focus Magazine cover, the Greek daily newspaper ‘Eleftheros Typos’ has published this depiction of the statue of the goddess Victoria, which stands on top of the Siegessaeule in Berlin, and doctored the picture to show her holding a swastika.
A statement from the Greek Consumer Institute (INKA) said:
“The falsification of a statue of Greek history, beauty and civilisation, from a time when in Germany they were eating bananas on trees is impermissible and unforgivable”.
INKA are also handing out leaflets in Athens infront of a large German-owned electrical goods store urging the Greeks to boycott German goods.Oh dear, I think this is now going to run-and-run. Backs are up.
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Hi Charlie
There is always another side to a story isn’t there, which unfortunately even some of the broadsheets fail to cover.
I suppose if the UK was on the receiving end of the abuse in the German press we would feel the same
However, it’s not looking good for Greece at the moment. Even in this country, where there are some parallels with Greece, there is a perception that the southern Europeans are untrustworthy and don’t follow the E.U. rules.
The trouble is when the press in two countries whip up feelings against one another, reason and good judgement go out of the window. I feel sorry for Greece and feel that there is a chance that it could go the same way as Iceland.
Richard
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@rt21 wrote:
The trouble is when the press in two countries whip up feelings against one another, reason and good judgement go out of the window.
I totally agree with you. Having said that I am like flosmichael “lucky enough to be surrounded by intelligent people” 🙄 and I have to say that at least in my circle here they are not impressed and don’t agree with the picture in the Greek newspaper. “It only drags us down to their level”. Let’s hope that the majority of Greeks feel the same way and this doesn’t escalate.
I have feet in both camps – I lived in Germany for several years in my twenties and still have good German friends, plus I have a cousin living there (married to a German) with children – so it’s interesting to be currently sitting/observing from this side of the fence.
The one thing I will give the Greek’s PM his due for though. Up until now at least, Papandreou’s stance has been “we are not asking for any money from the EU, not one Euro. No other country will pay for our debts, it is a matter of honour and pride for our country to put our own house in order.” We have to wait and see if this is achievable.
As for Greece ever leaving the Euro? Much as it would have many advantages and disadvantages, I just don’t see how it would be possible now. Only if the whole Euro thing collapses which I don’t see happening.
Why I think this situation has its own importance is it’s almost like a test case for when it comes to other countries who may find themselves in the same boat in the future. It’s interesting to see how Germany is behaving in a time of Euro-crisis, are they going to mock/humiliate other countries in difficulties too?
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