November 10, 2015 at 7:02 pm #188105oldjoneseyParticipant
With the start of the bid to separate from the rest of Spain, how risky is it to invest in Catalonian property right now?
November 10, 2015 at 10:35 pm #188110Mark StücklinKeymaster
Good question Old Jonesey.
I’ve recently bought a flat in Barcelona so maybe I’m too invested to see clearly, but I’ve always viewed this independence drive as a pointless waste of time with zero chance of success.
Madrid will never, ever allow Catalonia to declare unilateral independence. Why? Because if Catalonia leaves, the Basques will be right behind them, and then Spain is just a basket case. Nor is it in Catalonia’s interests to send Spain down the tubes, but try explaining that to a blinkered Catalan nationalist like Raul Romeva. Check out his BBC interview:
Junts pel Si is a deceit from top to bottom. Everything they do is a sleight of hand, from their party list to their promise of Utopia and independence with no cost. Thanks to them the CUP, who should be a marginalised party of crazies that nobody listens to, are now the centre of attention and setting the agenda. It’s farcical.
Having said all that, I’m also deeply unimpressed by the way this Government, and Madrid in general, have dealt with Catalan grievances. There is a lot of blame to go around on both sides.
There was a blistering editorial in La Vanguardia today attacking the strategy of JxS and the CUP, so it seems that finally La Vangu have woken up to the damage this is doing. Better late than never. The independistas can’t even agree on a president, so I expect the whole thing to start unravelling sooner rather than later, and hopeful before any damage is done to investor confidence. From what I can tell investors big and small are pretty unfazed about it so far, but here you are asking about it, and I guess you are not the only one. Why take the risk, some people will think to themselves.
On balance I think Catalonia is a safe place to invest in property (though the transaction costs are scandalous), but this sort of trouble does make one wonder. I’m less certain than I used to be.
November 11, 2015 at 7:28 pm #188131oldjoneseyParticipant
Thank you for your informative comments. From the perspective of a UK resident looking to invest in Spanish property, and mindful of the mixed reputation Spanish real-estate has in the eyes of an outsider, stability of the Country as a whole is no small consideration when making a purchase. I believe a lot will depend on the outcome of the Spanish General Elections in December, and their approach to this issue if confidence is to be maintained.
November 13, 2015 at 8:39 pm #188174Mark StücklinKeymaster
Yes, the last thing Spain needs is swivel-eyed nationalism and political uncertainty to add to its dubious reputation for property rights.
Interesting article at the FT: The folly of Catalonia’s rush to independence.
Today Fitch downgraded Catalona government bonds to junk status because of this rush to impose independence against the wish of the majority. Catalonia is now a riskier place to invest, despite claims it would be a rich utopia as an independent country.
The independistas can’t even agree on a president. If Catalonia ever became independent, you can bet they would be at eachother’s throats in the blink of an eye. Their hatred of Madrid is about the only thing that unites them.
November 15, 2015 at 12:52 pm #188184Chris NationParticipant
The Spanish general elections! Good grief! I’d forgotten about them!
I’m off to Valencia on 1st Dec to go flat hunting in the city. I think anyone looking to buy would do well to hold off going past the point of no return till the votes are in and the dust has settled over a new administration. It’ll be just as bonkers as the current lot – it may even be the current lot again – but at least we’ll know.
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