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nice article pointing out the end is nigh
http://www.zerohedge.com/article/ticking-time-bomb-are-spanish-cajas
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Well having sat here, working for the past eight hours almost non stop on a Marketing Proposal, and just to wind down I thought I would pop in and take a quick look at today’s posts.
So thanks for this adiep… you really cheered me up there!
Jeeze, almost got a headache trying to keep up with all the info and detail, but these spread betters, they just want crisis, bad news, anything to drive markets up and down in yo yo fashion no?
How much credence do we give this? How much affect is it really going to have? Doesn’t everyone know this already? None of the comments below seemed to treat as much more than insider gumpf they already knew.
Great link though, I would never come across this stuff, head hurting as it is, by myself.
Now am off to bed, but have given up worrying about Spain turning into another Greece, what will be, will be.
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Interesting, if worring, piece.
Once the benefits of record low Euribor and other artificial props finally expire, look for Spanish real estate prices to literally plummet destroying not just the local banking system, but that of the entire interlinked European financial system.
Chris, reading your reaction I’m reminded of that from various EA members of this community to the Variant Perception report “Spain the Hole in Europe’s Balance Sheet” back in Nov 2008.
http://www.spanishpropertyinsight.com/forums/viewtopic.php?t=4521
The article itself has now gone from view but in the time since then what they wrote (Continued house price falls, troubled banks, high unemployment, economic stagnation) has largely come to pass.
Now I don’t give this guy as much credence as I do Variant perception. As far as I’m aware he doesn’t have a track record and, as highlighted by the quote above, is somewhat over dramatic. That said, the arguments are coherent and he is only giving a more extreme version of what many well respected commentators have long been saying.
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I have managed to find a reprint of the original Variant Pecception piece for anyone interested:
http://www.redcafe.net/f13/spain-hole-europes-balance-sheet-265994/
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@brianc_li wrote:
Interesting, if worring, piece.
Chris, reading your reaction I’m reminded of that from various EA members of this community to the Variant Perception report “Spain the Hole in Europe’s Balance Sheet” back in Nov 2008.
.Brianc_li, perhaps you read me wrong, I can see the arguments are certainly coherent, I meant it when I said it was a great link, what I think I am trying to say here is, that I personally don’t know what to believe anymore.
So I kind of try to give up worrying about it at all.
This was meant from a personal perspective, very late at night, not an EA position as such. There are a few very insightful minds on this forum who present the lets call it “higher economic arguments / data / links” and I eat up as much as I can understand, but I have to be honest a lot goes straight over my head. That is why I rely upon you to explain a lot for me!
My question is, in this age of 24 hour news, 24 opinions to one simple question available on Google, 24 hours till the end of civilisation it seems sometimes, how much credence do we give this now?
We all know the situation with the Cajas, we all know the Spanish Central Bank seems to have effectively and creatively accounted for unbelievable amounts of debt in property throughout Spain so as not to bring down the national economy. We know it is one helluva mess.
In the grand scheme of things, I just don’t know anymore how worried I should be about this, or whether I should just give up worrying about any of it. Won’t the Costa del Sol be there in a week, year, ten years and on way beyond me? Won’t there be boom and bust all over again?
Is the world going to end tomorrow?
I am righteous about the cost of a G&T, a game of golf, I equally despair of what happened in terms of illegal build, and a dozen other issues that are certainly in the negative. So hopefully I am not all EA speak, but does it all matter is what am asking myself?
Should I just get on with what is instead of reading my 1,000th economic position on what is going to happen the Spanish economy, even if it all goes somehow up in the air, well then it will just have to recover no? It might even be a good thing?
I just don’t know.
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Chris,
Fair play to you for calling things as you see them. Nothing wrong with that at all.
I do appreciate that I am a bit of an economics anorak and, as such, am quite interested in things that leave many people cold.
My question is, in this age of 24 hour news, 24 opinions to one simple question available on Google, 24 hours till the end of civilisation it seems sometimes, how much credence do we give this now?
This particular article, for the reasons I outlined earlier, not a lot. To me it only serves to make up a small part of a much bigger picture. One that, from the perspective of those that own Spanish property, or work in the industry, is not a pretty one.
In the grand scheme of things, I just don’t know anymore how worried I should be about this, or whether I should just give up worrying about any of it. Won’t the Costa del Sol be there in a week, year, ten years and on way beyond me? Won’t there be boom and bust all over again?
Yes, such is the nature of the economic cycle. There is however a lot more ‘bust’ to come before anything like a recovery starts.
Does it all matter is what am asking myself?
To those, such as potential purchasers like me, it matters a lot. I’m not going to part with 200k for a property now that will probably only be worth 150k in a couple of years time. That was a call I (correctly) made some two years ago not long after I began researching the market. It is a stance I still hold and would advise anyone else to do so at present.
Does it all matter to you? It must to a certain extent as you reacted to the original post. If it didn’t matter, why bother?
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We all need anoraks! I wouldn’t be without you.
Yes it does matter to me, a great deal, am trying to figure stuff out just as hard as you, I have 20 years and still investment and much belief for my particular Costa.
I think your call 2 years ago was a very good one, I suppose one could still buy for €200k and lose €50k in the next two years, if one bought the wrong property, and I would put financially sound purchase at the top of my list if I was buying today – as does almost every single person – however, wouldn’t it be true that you will never ever know, in property whether 200 today will be worth 150 tomorrow?
At least you do know today that prices are as low as they have been since what…? 2002-3 perhaps. Could they go lower, yes, could they go higher yes, could they stay the same yes.
I don’t know, I think with all my heart that there are some fantastic buys on the Costa right now, but you know what, jeeze I could be so wrong if there was some double dip and somehow prices that have fallen already and substantially could go from 40% to 60%, I can’t for the life of me see how, but I am no anorak, and the anoraks had it right for the last several years not me, that is damn straight!
But then, heck, maybe I just want to buy and wait, and use and enjoy, and accept that the whole world spins around with or without me getting into all the detail. Surely if I buy today, I get all the use and pleasure, surely the odds now are that I am a lot more secure than had I done so 2-4 years ago, that there are good odds that in 4-6 years time my decision may also prove to have been a good investment also, bearing in my mind my use and pleasure also.
My point is, lets say these chaps – and I read most of the Red Devils post too, thanks for that – but I didn’t check the thread, anyway even if these chaps are right, how bad is it going to be, or how much worse can it get?
Can I not just get on with today, and say, look prices have fallen to a level from 8 years ago, thank goodness I didn’t buy 2-4 years ago, you know what I can wait forever, but if I want this now is as good as time as any?
(Bit of the EA popped into this bit I have to admit)
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“I think with all my heart that there are some fantastic buys on the Costa right now, “
The definition of a bargain is all dependant on the availability of credit. When credit is freely available and buyers can MEW against their inflated northern European property then buying a second home in Spain is easy. When the world is up to its neck in debt on a scale never seen before in modern history and with the millstone of negative equity, tax increases and job losses raising even a small sum takes a lot of hard work.. and time. Buying a second home without any equity withdrawal from a UK house while paying for UK mortgage is almost impossible. The UK housing market is going to be in the doldrums for many years and it will affect Spain for even longer. A large amount of securitised lending has to be slowly paid down before there will be any sort of recovery and boom; which means at least five, maybe ten years of stagnation.
Doesn’t matter if it seems like a ‘bargain’, without credit or a profit from a exiting property its unaffordable.
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@peterhun wrote:
“I think with all my heart that there are some fantastic buys on the Costa right now, “
The definition of a bargain is all dependant on the availability of credit.
A large amount of securitised lending has to be slowly paid down before there will be any sort of recovery and boom; which means at least five, maybe ten years of stagnation.
Doesn’t matter if it seems like a ‘bargain’, without credit or a profit from a exiting property its unaffordable.
Yep, except that I am patently not talking about people who can’t afford to buy. I am talking about people who can afford to buy, I am not really interested in anyone who can’t afford to buy, because well they won’t be able to buy will they? So what’s the point?
And actually anybody who can afford to buy, always has the availability – if they require it – of credit, and actually that credit is as low as anyone living can remember it.
I am also not talking about or looking for recovery or boom, nor am I talking about making a profit, you seem to think there is only one kind of buyer – you.
But you see there are people who are not you, and who can afford and do want to buy.
There isn’t just one type of buyer, there are many others, people who have the funds or the availability of funds, sounds like Brian might be one, who then have a decision to simply make of just when. And they are not buying necessarily for profit, isn’t that what got all property markets bent out of shape for the last 20 years? They were supposed to be homes, not pensions or investment vehicles.
And I was also not talking “Bargain”, was talking Fantastic Buys, these are a bit different than Bargains, Bargains usually come out of buckets, Fantastic Buys are just great things to buy and use, and enjoy and be worth the money spent on them for the pleasure they bring – not something to be tied up in waiting for “securitised lending to be slowly paid down over ten years of stagnation” you see, that’s what kills me, that kind of talk, I just die a little inside every time I hear it.
And back on the thread, I just don’t know if I can also read any more deep vein analysis, about Caja’s but I do of course want Adiep and Brianc-li to keep posting them, because they are hugely important and relevant to a lot of folk, it is just for me, at this stage I am moving beyond them now.
I think you will find Peterhun, that the people who are buying today, will do well over the mid to long term, they will also enjoy today and tomorrow and be better off than waiting till 5-10 years from now, but I believe they should only do so, because they can afford to do so.
These are the fortunate 10 out of what used to be yesteryear’s every 100 buyers.
And in 10 years when you sell up in Poland and head down to the Costa for a spot of sunshine we will welcome you too! Because you can afford it, or the credit and we will have a Fantastic Buy waiting for you. And no more stagnation.
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Wouldn’t it be true that you will never ever know, in property whether 200 today will be worth 150 tomorrow?
True indeed. What you can however do is look at the fundamentals and make an informed call. That is what I did two years ago, it is what I am still doing.
Surely if I buy today, I get all the use and pleasure, surely the odds now are that I am a lot more secure than had I done so 2-4 years ago, that there are good odds that in 4-6 years time my decision may also prove to have been a good investment also, bearing in my mind my use and pleasure also.
The use and the pleasure yes but this also comes with the running costs and associated headaches. As for your other ‘surely’ I would say the balance is actually against. We certainly aren’t any more secure than 2-4 years ago. Indeed it now looks as if a double dip is on the cards in Europe. The odds that any investment now turns out to have been a good one in 4-6 years are slim at best. If the Euro as we know it ceases to exist, something which many commentators now see as inevitable, we’ll see an almost overnight devaluation of 30-50%.
How bad is it going to be, or how much worse can it get?
Nobody knows. My guess is that on the Costsa we’ll see another two years of falls and 25% off prices before things stabilise. After that there will be at least another few years of stagnation. In real terms properties there will be worth some 50-60% of their current ‘value’ in five years time.
If I want this now is as good as time as any?
No, it fundamentally isn’t a good time to buy now. It won’t be at least until the concerns over European debt levels and bank finances have been addressed. It won’t be until the future of the euro is resolved. It won’t be until the current glut of unsold properties in Spain is cleared.
Those who wish to buy for lifestyle purposes should only do so in the full knowledge that anything they purchase now is likely to lose a good chunk of its value over the next half decade. If they still decide to go ahead with a purchase then good for them. I wouldn’t want to stop anyone doing what they wish.
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Nobody knows. My guess is that on the Costsa we’ll see another two years of falls and 25% off prices before things stabilise. After that there will be at least another few years of stagnation. In real terms properties there will be worth some 50-60% of their current ‘value’ in five years time.
You see, I hear you, and it all makes and sounds like terrific sense, but this is the bit where it all falls down for me. And please be as patient with me when you tell me why I have it wrong.
But you are saying that a property bought for lets say 300,000 some four years ago, which has fallen by 40% already, so now is selling for 180,000, will fall by a further 25% over the next two years being 45,000 down to 135,000.
And given that today’s current value – we sold one yesterday – is 180,000 you believe that this will actually be worth as little as 90,000 in five years time?
Do you see where I am coming from?
I really do appreciate and understand your posts, and they help, it is just this bit that I don’t get – that from an actual average selling price of 300k four years ago, across the board properties on the CDS are only going to be worth 30% of their price some 9 years later.
Do you see where I have a little difficulty with that?
Please sort me out.
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Please sort me out.
Now you are asking the impossible. 😀
OK, let’s take your example.
You are saying that a property bought for lets say 300,000 some four years ago, which has fallen by 40% already, so now is selling for 180,000, will fall by a further 25% over the next two years being 45,000 down to 135,000.
Yes, what I am saying is that IMO that is the most likely scenario. All the fundamentals are pointing that way.
And given that today’s current value – we sold one yesterday – is 180,000 you believe that this will actually be worth as little as 90,000 in five years time?
It is not quite as simple as that. My assertion is that, with a few years stagnation, the property will probably still be selling for 135k in five years time. In real terms however, after accounting for inflation, that will be equivalent to what you could currently buy for 90-100k.
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It is not quite as simple as that. My assertion is that, with a few years stagnation, the property will probably still be selling for 135k in five years time. In real terms however, after accounting for inflation, that will be equivalent to what you could currently buy for 90-100k.
Very funny with the now you asking the impossible! 😆
OK, you been patient with me, and I get all of this thanks.
But if the € price may still then be the same 135k in five years time, will not all property UK included have likely fallen in real terms accounting for inflation also?
Will that not be a good thing? Won’t then wages have hopefully risen? The price of a home, holiday or permanent residence have become also much more affordable against annual income, and for sure a boom be on the way?
And where does one put €135k today, to be worth a heap more in five years time?
I put more than that in a Zurich Pension fund some 10 years ago over a period of about two years or so, and today I think it is worth something like €80k.
I wish I had put in property I can tell you.
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Will not all property UK included have likely fallen in real terms accounting for inflation also?
I have concentrated my research on the Spanish market as that is where I am looking to buy. Also, I am Irish and live in the Netherlands so the UK market is of pheripheral interest to me. There will be others on here in a much better position to comment. What I will say is that there are so many differences between the two markets, currency, economy, housing builds, size of bubble, etc., that you cannot readily compare them.
And where does one put €135k today, to be worth a heap more in five years time?
My spare money (basically that which wouldn’t kill me if I lost it) is invested in countries which are commodity rich (To satisfy China & India’s demands) and politically stable. Those are Brazil, Canada and Australia. I’ve seen 50% growth over the past three years and believe I’ll see a decent return for at least the next two.
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I should just add that I would strongly advise anyone against investing in Brazilian property. I seriously looked at this a couple of years ago as well. Whilst the country is beautiful and the returns are currently fantastic it is pretty well impossible for an individual to get any money back out of the country.
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My spare money (basically that which wouldn’t kill me if I lost it) is invested in countries which are commodity rich (To satisfy China & India’s demands) and politically stable. Those are Brazil, Canada and Australia. I’ve seen 50% growth over the past three years and believe I’ll see a decent return for at least the next two.
Ahhh… so is this why I get confused then?
You are basically looking for an investment where I am talking to people who are looking for an involvement?
I and I suspect many others don’t have your financial acumen or astute interest in markets, projections, returns and the like. I have had to put my spare money (would just burn me up if I lost more like I have with Zurich, or did with Lloyds on the stock market years ago) into Corporate Bonds and they get a good return over 3 years it won’t be 50% but with the guaranteed return plus what I think they term the yield will be about 30% or so I think.
Now the bank had me do that, but… people I talk to, perhaps have that also, and what they want to do with their other funds – or because they have funds, then their access to currently cheap credit, and at a moment in time which is indisputably the best in let’s say 8 years to buy (putting aside yes, what may or may not happen tomorrow) what these people want to do is sit not on more Corporate Bonds, but sit on a terrace looking out over the sea to a golden sunset while sipping a chilled Sangria – and perhaps get away from all their other pressures which led to them attaining these funds in the first place.
In those terms is it not a great time to buy? I would consider the last great time to buy to have been 1992-4 those people who bought then and sold in 2002 had one helluva result, might today’s buyer for involvement as well as investment, do as spectacularly well if they buy today and sell whenever the next boom peaks, maybe 8 years from now?
Again, I don’t think anyone should buy property for investment, but this is where many of us have different perspectives on the forum, you are looking for a certain return and a profit, and will wait till this is assured.
But others are just looking for the sheer joy and so long as they buy and wait, won’t they actually be as safe as houses, so long as they can afford to wait?
You did say, and I appreciate it that people should do as they please, but I don’t know, and this is back the whole Cajas thing, isn’t there some phrase such as the paralysis of analysis?
Isn’t it all swings and roundabouts? For those with the right reasons, all that has happened and is about to happen, is making this for some a great time to get a fantastic buy as long as you look for a period over 5 years, because there are places to buy that are fantastic and secure, A grade premium property, which will show a return and will give much pleasure.
And why wait? To get a lower price, might not happen, and lose out on the fun and pleasure, when you can’t see the sunset or taste the Sangria on Corporate Bonds!
Like I said, I hear you, I find our arguments faultless, but perhaps a bit heartless, and this is because we all spend too much time worrying ourselves sick over links like the Cajas Again.
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Actually that is not the case Chris. I’m looking for a place on the CDS that I will semi retire to in about ten years time. In the meantime I’ll let family and friends use it as well as, of course doing so myself. It is not an investment, it is a lifestyle choice. I need no mortgage as I have the cash and have had for some time.
Quite simply, even though mine will not be a purchase for investment purposes, I don’t intend to throw money away which I’m pretty sure I’d do by buying anywhere in Spain, the Costas in particular, at present.
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@brianc_li wrote:
Actually that is not the case Chris. I’m looking for a place on the CDS that I will semi retire to in about ten years time. In the meantime I’ll let family and friends use it as well as, of course doing so myself. It is not an investment, it is a lifestyle choice. I need no mortgage as I have the cash and have had for some time.
Quite simply, even though mine will not be a purchase for investment purposes, I don’t intend to throw money away which I’m pretty sure I’d do by buying anywhere in Spain, the Costas in particular, at present.
Would it be the case, that even if you felt that you wouldn’t be throwing your money way, that now is not really the time for you to buy and use anyway?
Does that also play a part?
Do, I have an argument that those who are buying today, and unlike you not semi retire in ten years time, but perhaps be moving on and therefore sell to YOU in ten years time. Do you think that my argument they won’t be so badly off holds any water at all?
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Brian said “
I seriously looked at this a couple of years ago as well. Whilst the country is beautiful and the returns are currently fantastic it is pretty well impossible for an individual to get any money back out of the country.”
That is not true at all !! If you declare the funds when you bring them in and declare all the sales price when you sell you can take out every “Real”……… what happened in the past is most of Brasil worked on black money when buying and selling (no prob if a local) but a problem for a foreigner for obvious reasons !!!!
re all the cassandra economic experts ; well where were they in 2004??? anyone in business then (2004) knew the music was stopping except for these experts now forecasting more disaster !!!! NOW is the time to work hard and make money whilst everyone else hides under their bed is what I say!!!!!!!
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Ubeda, my sister lives in Brazil. She has done for the past twenty five years. She’s the one who advised me of this. When they last bought a property there, about five years ago, they transferred the funds between two organisations in Ireland such was the hassle of doing anything ‘officially’. Whatever the law is, it simply isn’t easy to get money out. A check through the internet forums that deal with Brazilian property will also confirm this.
Chris, I believe we may have exhausted our conversation on this. I’m not going to change my outlook until I see some change in the basic economic circumstances. You’ll remain an EA on the CDS. 🙂
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Chris, I believe we may have exhausted our conversation on this. I’m not going to change my outlook until I see some change in the basic economic circumstances. You’ll remain an EA on the CDS
Yep Brianc_li, I was going to thank you for the exchange and end the conversation myself next post as well, and I hope you don’t think I was trying to change your view, that was not my intention.
I only wondered finally if for certain others you thought my arguments held any water at all, that was all.
So thanks very much, I enjoyed the exchange of views, and I will certainly keep reading the financial analysis links also.
Cheers
Chris
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I for one expect bank trouble in Spain before the end of the year. I give it a 70% probability, in other words, quite high, but not certain.
Why? Because from what I hear the money markets have slammed shut on Spanish banks. Only the big three can raise money these days (Santander, BBVA, and La Caixa). Everyone else is 100% dependent on the ECB for funding.
The ECB can’t carry on doling out cash to Spanish banks cash in return for their toxic waste – the Germans just won’t stomach it. When the ECB tap turns off, what then for funding?
You only have to walk down the street in Spain to see how many bank branches there are all over the place. That means big overheads. They must be some of the most bloated banks in the world. And you know what happens when banks with big overheads struggle to get funding? They run out of money. Perhaps the rumours start before they actually run out, but then it doesn’t matter: people start queuing up to get their money out. We saw it in the UK not so long ago.
Looking further down the road, expect galloping inflation. When that happens, property isn’t such a bad thing to own.
Interesting times.
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I read that some European countries eg. Germany, Netherlands are offloading any Euro notes that do not have their own countries prefix. They fear a meltdown and don’t want to be stuck with large amounts of eg. Greek or Spanish ones.
However, the Euro seems to be strengthening, gained about 5 points against the dollar this week, sterling dropped to 1.199 last night. The worst may be over 😐
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I think the euro still has the potential to be a volatile currency. We have not yet seen the full affects of the cuts in Spain and Greece, which have been annouced over the last few months. When they kick in, it will be interesting to see what impact they have on both economies and whether the governments can sustain popular support for them.
Richard
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Most certainly the euro will continue to be volatile. The markets are just stewing at the moment, basically i dont think they know which way to turn, apparently money market funds that pay about 0.5% interest and are considered the safest of safe havens have had billions ploughed into them this week. Markets are expecting another shock, but dont know where it will come from first, so are basically heading for the bunkers.
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