May 5, 2008 at 7:15 pm #53924
If is of course clear that sales in Spain are going through a very difficult period and not with standing legal issues the credit crunch/Euro will be a big factor.
However nothing stands still and property sales will carry on and Spain is the top or nearly the top where people want to re-locate from the U.K and not forgetting other countries.
Are there any tangible figures or genuine comments that show if building continues to out weight sales or if and when demand will start to eat in to the over supply. HOW LONG WILL IT TAKE TO START GETTING EQUAL BALANCE OF SUPPLY AND DEMAND ?
Of course based on todays U.K news the responce may well be a negative factor in any replies ,however today is yesterdays news and I myself still know many that want out of the U,K with the way its going.
Just Frank 8)
May 5, 2008 at 9:34 pm #82146
Hi Just Frank,
My gut feeling is that the Credit Crunch will turn out to be less of a problem than originally thought, and the loses by banks less than predicted., and the crunch will ease in the near future. I also think the Euro is over-valued and the pound will nudge back to 1.35 / 1.40. The UK Economy remains robust. Although we are looking at other countries at the moment – just viewed some properties in Madeira and going to Central Portugal in a couple of weeks, Spain still retains a magnetic pull, despite all the problems. I know others who also talk of Spain as their first choice. It may take 2/3 years, but the buyers are out there waiting to ‘jump-in’.
May 5, 2008 at 11:06 pm #82147
Spain would be my first choice (very close thing with southern France) and i think i would be there now if i thought i could make a tidy living. i am not in a position where i could afford to buy a property outright so would need an income and i think that is what is stopping tens of thousands of Brits from upping sticks, everybody is seriously p155ed off with the UK and Spain is an obvious choice, the sun shines, the beer’s cheap and there are thousands of other Brits.
The reality is probably a lot different to this, as i’m sure many members will testify but it won t stop many Brits from trying
May 6, 2008 at 12:14 pm #82161
Frank Spain will always be no1 as nowhere in the world can you get the combinations as here, weather, lifestyle proximity to uk etc etc etc.
However I doubt demand will EVER match the supply, just certain areas and pockets will always be in demand – eg here Im talking Marbella, N Andalucia, San pedro, and other over built areas will alwys be harder to sell, Casares, Manilva etc – this will be replicated everywhere.
I was talking to a property pal in Ireland who says as there are bargains the Irish are snapping them up in Dublin. Same happened in the 90s. London kept turning properites, it was the areas oflesser wealth that suffered.
Here in Spain tehre is no industry to enable workers to earn and pay a mortgage – however low it may be, so there will never be enough people to fill the units. The retirees and in the main second homers will have enough dosh to pay for the more desireable areas
Its not that quiet – its actually just a normal market! 12-13 years ago and beyond, the selling times were in the main mid march to mid june and a couple of months end sept ro early nov. One would expect to sell 2 maybe 3 properties either side max! The heady days of selling that a day are long gone.
But life is good. No thats wrong, its Great!
May 6, 2008 at 2:11 pm #82170
“However I doubt demand will EVER match the supply “
EVER is a long time 😕
Interesting comments . Does anyone know if they are still building faster than they are selling or are they doing like the U.K and taking stock before building properties that they will not be able to sell with falling prices and mortgages very hard to get.
Just Frank 8)
May 6, 2008 at 3:15 pm #82174
My question was in the direction of:
while in the beginning/middle of the crisis (known afterwards, of course; economists know how to predict well the past), did people realize they were in a crisis? Or it was only when they had problems (being fired, …) that they started to realize?
May 6, 2008 at 3:21 pm #82175
Farstar – people realize more immediately now due to the speed of information. News travels much faster and the ripples were felt by those who listened 4 or 5 years ago! Its only now things are falling off the edge that the blind and purposely deaf soeak in unison. Therefore people have been aware of whats about to happen for the last 2 years certainly and now the rising unemployment – at 1995 levels – bare this out. Of course, doesnt take into consideration illegal workers, therefore the true figure is a lot higher.
Frank – yes they are still building faster than selling, but some cannot refinance and are in big trouble. Many developments will stop for a few years but they will be built – eventually.
I suspect the true figures of whats on the market arent out yet, repos rising steeply as well, despite the courts etc taking a couple of years to act them out now!
Gosh – Im not usually this negative! It had to happen, I saw it long time ago but it was and is inevitable. Many losers, some winners and stability in time
May 6, 2008 at 3:26 pm #82177
Inez, but the feeling I have in Spain is that even though macroeconomic figures start appearing really bad, people are still not reducing prices much. Of course some have been shortsqueezed in liquidity, and they have to sell at low prices, but not the majority, yet.
I would imagine, being naive, that if I want to sell and I see a crisis coming, I sell with 10%/15% discount, but at least I sell and I have my money. But many people are still keeping the prices on their highs. Even though they may clearly see that banks are restricting their lending, and unemployment is rising.
It is a mistery to me.
May 6, 2008 at 3:36 pm #82178
Spanish, commercial sense is very different.
May 6, 2008 at 8:42 pm #82186
Yes shakeel, spanish economics are strange…someone is interested in their house, increase the price. A restaurant is doing badly..increase the price!
As for the credit crunch…would it be that was Spain’s only problem! Spain has been in the doldrums since 2004 (the reason why some developments from that date still have units for sale). Agents were frantically talking up the market, now they are talking it down with “fantastic bargains” that don’t exist…yet! The credit crunch will exacerbate the markets crash but if it were not there a serious problem still exists.
May 6, 2008 at 9:02 pm #82187
“spanish economics are strange…someone is interested in their house, increase the price. A restaurant is doing badly..increase the price!”
Iberia losing money, lets ask for 30% rise or else go on a strike. Taxis losing money lets increase fares.
An, Aunt of a Spanish friend of mine had an apartment lying empty for well over seven months in one of the expensive/desirable area’s of Madrid as she would not reduce the rent by around £30+/- per month.
I know this as I was renting the next door identical flat. Need I say more
about Spanish Rational/economics.
May 7, 2008 at 9:58 am #82200
Farstar – agreed, but prices are being dropped and faster. I have owners who have been on my books for a while finally seeing the sense. I do tell them every month passing is another of bills, mortgage etc.
Now they are listening to me and Ive noticed that usually I give the the bad news about price and they take on average 6 months to concur if they havent already sold.
Now its down to 3 months and even the Spanish are realizing to sell they have to drop the prices. I have had 2 this week and Im quite shocked how much they have dropped by without arguements, so onward and upwards
May 7, 2008 at 10:44 am #82206
“Now its down to 3 months and even the Spanish are realizing to sell they have to drop the prices. I have had 2 this week and Im quite shocked how much they have dropped by without arguements, so onward and upwards”
How big are the drops?
Did buyer interest increase after the price drop?
May 7, 2008 at 2:46 pm #82224
I have yet to see a real bargain. Have seen reductions but that’s not the same if they were massively overpriced to start.
May 7, 2008 at 5:13 pm #82232
Ralita – all drops are relative. There are ‘bargains’ around but its not a bargain if its a pretty unsaleable unit to start with
I have 2 townhouses (well 1 now) 1st 2 bed 2 bath integral garage beachside cancelada. 15 years old complex, but in good nick, 186sqm built. Normally sell not refurbished for 260-270k, I have for 189,000 – sold yesterday. Spanish seller, had to get out quick. Next door 3 bedder 235sqm built on for 215k. South facing and pretty much cant fault them.
Most thses beachside in the 400k+ mark! Mioght find a little lower.
I was suprised and to be honest till they are at notary I wont believe it, but so far so good!
Percentage wise thats a good 30% on the first and around 40 on the second, but the location and position is spot on, so will hold value. Also they are houses and not 2 bed boxes!
May 12, 2008 at 11:54 am #82379
how do I get in touch off line? I would like to speak to you about a property I would like to sell in Estepona.
May 12, 2008 at 12:13 pm #82382
Hi Callal – send me a pm – its the pm button at the case of my posting. Or check my profile as my email and website are there too
May 13, 2008 at 11:45 am #82441
I have sent you a pm.
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