Voting has started in the UK referendum on EU membership. Here are the final indicators and two videos making the case for in and out, which you might find useful if you are British and can vote but still haven’t made up you mind (undecideds have been running at around 10% in the polls).
The vote is important for anyone with an interest in Spanish property, as I explain here: UK EU-referendum implications for Spanish property market
ARGUMENTS FOR AND AGAINST
Toby Young, associate editor of the Spectator, argues the case for leaving.
Michael Dougan, Professor of European Law at Liverpool University, argues the case for staying.
UK EU referendum final indicators
The final opinion poll today by YouGov puts the remain camp slightly ahead on 51% to 49%, with no undecideds. Yesterday, one poll put the leavers ahead by 45% to 44%, and another put the remainers ahead with 48% to 42%, in both cases with 11% undecideds. Given that today’s YouGov poll has no undecideds that might be the most accurate of the final opinion polls, giving the remain camp a tiny lead. Whatever happens, it looks like it’s going to be a tight race.
The bookies are now giving a remain vote much shorter odds, whist the odds of a leave vote have jumped to 5.5. So as far as the bookies are concerned, the UK will very likely still be a member of the EU tomorrow.
LATEST EUR/GBP EXCHANGE RATE
The pound has spent all the week on the rise as the money markets see a remain vote as more likely as we get closer to the poll. I’ve read that hedge funds have spent big bucks on their own polls and other ways to get an insight into which way the vote will go. Billions could be made by a surprise result, but the overall picture is one in which the remain vote wins.
FINAL CELEBRITY ENDORSEMENTS
David Beckham has urged people to vote to stay in the European Union, saying the UK should be “facing the problems of the world together and not alone”. The ex-footballer and Unicef ambassador said people should think of their children and grandchildren before Thursday’s vote. (BBC)
With news that the Remain campaign are fielding David Beckham as a late impact player, Michael Gove announced his own Leave team news – Sol Campbell and John Barnes coming off the bench in favour of leaving.
Let’s see what tomorrow brings! Whatever the outcome I expect it to have a significant impact on the Spanish property market in the short term: positive in the case of a vote to remain, and negative in the case of a Brexit.