UK referendum on EU membership – Brexit gains in latest indicators

The latest polls, betting odds, and pound-euro exchange rate suggesting which way the vote might go in the UK’s referendum on EU membership on the 23rd June.

In the week gone by most of the indicators pointed towards a tight race, with the leave vote gaining ground. The vote is important for anyone with an interest in Spanish property, as I explain here: UK EU-referendum implications for Spanish property market


An ICM poll on the 30th may put the leave camp ahead 47-44. I think it was a telephone poll, which are more reliable. The YouGov poll on 31 May put both sides equal on 41%. A good week for the leave camp.



The latest betting odds from Betfair show a big gain by the leave camp. The remain camp is still the odds on favourite, but the the race now looks much tighter, as far as the bookies are concerned.



The Pound crashed at the beginning of this week, dropping from a near 17-week high of €1.3196 to two-week low of €1.2863, erasing the previous week’s gains. The tumble was caused by the latest referendum polling data, which showed that the ‘Leave’ campaign held a 4% lead against ‘Remain’.

forex for spanish property purchase or sale


Mariano Rajoy, the Spanish PM, sent a blunt message warning of the consequences of a Brexit vote for British expats in Spain.

British expats could lose the right to live and work in Spain in the event of a Brexit vote, the country’s Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy has suggested.

“it would be very negative for British citizens” if Britain were to leave the EU, because they would no longer be able to move freely around Europe.

More than 400,000 British citizens live and work in Spain, in comparison to 100,000 Spanish citizens who live and work in the United Kingdom, he claimed. (Telegraph).

SPI Member Comments

One thought on “UK referendum on EU membership – Brexit gains in latest indicators

  • Chris Nation says:

    With luck and a following wind, 3 days before the UK in/out vote, Rajoy will be pan tostada. Surely, for the Spanish, that will be ‘good riddance’? Spain has to try some other way to run their country than proven incompetents and brown envelope merchants like PP and PSOE?

    And is he even entitled to say that, under EU rules? And what about the EEA?

    He must be grinding some sort of political axe here, to chip in like this. Is he fishing for Brit votes in the Spanish election? Has he some sort of quid pro quo with Cameron? He hasn’t said this for the benefit of the UK or Brits in Spain. What’s his angle?

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