Home » UK ‘Brexit’ referendum on EU membership – Latest indicators

UK ‘Brexit’ referendum on EU membership – Latest indicators

The latest polls, betting odds, and pound-euro exchange rate suggesting which way the vote might go in the UK’s referendum on EU membership on the 23rd June.


For the last week or so the polls have given the remain camp a clear lead of 55% compared to 37%-40% for leave. However the latest YouGov poll on the 17th May narrowed the lead to 44% for remain and 40% leave, with a higher don’t know of 15%. Overall it was a good week for the remain camp in terms of opinion polls.

Latest brexit indicators
LATEST BREXIT VOTE INDICATORS: Opinion polls (Source: WhatUKthinks.org)


The latest betting odds from Betfair show the remain camp gaining ground as the odds-on favourite falling from 1.33 to 1.22, compared to an increase from 3.25 to 4.00 for a Brexit vote. So the bookies think a remain vote is highly likely, and getting more so

Latest brexit indicators
LATEST BREXIT VOTE INDICATORS: Betting odds (Source: Betfair.com)


The pound had a very good week against the euro, mainly on the strength of the opinion polls showing stronger support for a remain vote. So the money markets see a remain vote as more likely.

Latest brexit indicators
LATEST BREXIT VOTE INDICATORS: EUR/GBP Exchange rate (Source: Yahoo.co.uk)


Screen capture from BBC News website
Screen capture from BBC News website

Jude Law, Keira Knightley and Benedict Cumberbatch are among stars who have signed a letter saying Brexit would “damage” the creative industry, reports the BBC.

Among others backing the letter are actors Bill Nighy, Chiwetel Ejiofor, Sir John Hurt, Sir Patrick Stewart and Thandie Newton, architect Richard Rogers, artist Tracey Emin, author John le Carre, comedian Jo Brand, fashion designer Vivienne Westwood, director Richard Curtis and writer Philip Pullman.

Canadian PM Justin Trudeau has entered the debate saying “Britain is always going to have clout, it’s just obviously amplified by its strength as part of the EU. I believe we’re always better when we work as closely as possible together and separatism, or division, doesn’t seem to be a productive path for countries.” (BBC)

The former president of the European Central Bank, Jean-Claude Trichet, has defended Bank of England Governor Mark Carney’s intervention in the debate last week, when he warned that a vote to leave could cause a recession. (BBC)

Lord Lamont, a former chancellor, has described “this daily avalanche of institutional propaganda” as “ludicrous and pitiful”. (BBC)

SPI Member Comments

Thoughts on “UK ‘Brexit’ referendum on EU membership – Latest indicators

  • Andalusguy says:

    I have indeed carefully watched various Brexit video clips and the net result of that experience is to change my vote to IN. Really, what a load of twisted and manipulated propaganda. It is clear that the out camp are unable to put together a wholly factual strategy to demonstrate how and more importantly, when an exit from the EU would benefit the UK. Its also quite a blow (ironically) to the campaign when even the Canadian p.m. is also saying that we are better off staying in the union (which has put a hole in Boris’s tapestry!!). There is now an avalanche of key figures coming out of the woodwork to endorse the stay campaign, from a myriad of backgrounds. Are we to assume that every one of these individuals has no credibility or the capacity to make an informed assessment? For all the faults of the EU and some questionable claims from the stay campaign, the Brexit case is becoming more desperate and weaker by the day. It is running very much on trying to exploit populist sentiment and conjecture rather than compelling, and factual rationale. For me it has lost the plot. To a certain extent it is a reluctant choice but the safer bet in my opinion is to remain.

  • Chris Nation says:

    Anne Barnett is right – or perhaps almost right. My mother, who had connections with Kendal, in what was Westmorland, used to say things were “runckled”. And as ‘L’ and ‘K’ are adjacent on the keyboard, I think that, in the grip of powerful feeling, Rex Barley has made a typo. Nothing like typing whilst in a fury to produce alphabet soup.

    As for the two campaigns, I think the leader in The Times is correct – it is impossible to distinguish between fact and propaganda. If a large number of Thespian ‘stars’ have declared for ‘IN’, I suspect the best move may be ‘OUT’. This is based on my experience of some of the most distinguished actors who came to prominence in the early ’60s being committed, vocal and active members of the Socialist Workers’ Party, a British political irrelevance if ever there was one.

    In my view, the only sensible comment on how to make up your mind, if undecided, has been made by Mr Moneysaving, Martin Lewis. In short he recommends that if you are a person generally averse to risk, vote to stay in. If you are comfortable with risk and think that voting ‘out’ does have merit, vote ‘out`

    • Andalusguy says:

      Sorry Chris but that is far too simplistic an attitude. There are plenty of independent reports to read out there if someone (who genuinely cares about the debate and outcome), takes a bit of time to read. They give a good and balanced perspective on all the key issues, hence why I changed my viewpoint to aupport the remain case.
      When you talk about a likely negative impact upon our economy, resulting in recession and loss of jobs, at a time when our country is back on its feet post recession, and is the fastest growing economy in the G7 group of countries, ‘risk’ is hardly a sensible option to vote for.

      • Chris Nation says:

        I agree it is a simplistic m.o. but from what I have read and heard, the ‘independent reports’ are, as The Times suggested, indistinguishable from stuff expressed in a reasonable and erudite tone from a source clearly aligned with or a central player in, one camp or the other.

        It reminds me of a wonderful practical joke played on the programme editors of BBC R3 by a couple of guys in the BBC electronic music studio, Maida Vale (whence the Dr Who Sig tune, for eg)

        In down-time they compiled a complete oevre of avant garde ‘music’, entirely randomly generated by their gizmos, by a fictitious east European refusnik and, over a period of months, had cassettes if this stuff sent to R3 from an ‘underground cell’ in Czechoslovakia.

        The contemporary music wonks at R3 swallowed this garbage whole and for some years it featured in avant garde programming.

        Eventually, the scammers ‘fessed up and egg was duly deposited on erudite and auguste R3 faces.

        I contend that much of what is coming out of both camps will, in time, be revealed as similarly lacking in any basis in reality. Though perhaps we will never know, in the case of the loser.

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